Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[Gune]

That daily pic is a kick to the nuts for the toad supporters, I'd feel bad but I dont even care about a new Mario charecter other series need them more.

 

[Deleted member]

Pretty much if we're getting a Mario newcomer, it's going to be Bowser Jr.
A conclusion I came to quite a few months back (even before Peach's reveal) that I finally have no remaining doubts for now.

Rosalina even outprioritizes Waluigi in the biggest Mario spinoff series now (Mario Kart).

(Mario Kart 8)

(Mario Kart Arcade GP DX)


...you were saying? Absent in one Mario Kart (while he still had a course) doesn't mean she outprioritizes him.
Jr. wasn't in Mario Kart 7 either. Hell, he's not in 3D World while Rosalina is. Does that mean she outprioritizes him too?

 

[BKupa666]

I think it's premature to predict doom and gloom for every other veteran series newcomer based on the apparent disconfirmation of a single veteran series newcomer who, based on Peach's previous two reveals, was never in serious consideration to begin with. I see no reason why Palutena fans of all people should worry when, based on what we've seen, Sakurai is perfectly willing to switch out a few of Pit's old attacks; maybe his Final Smash will be switched, too. People on here have known for years that Toad, despite being the icon he is, has had mixed support in the U.S. due to disparate desires for Mario newcomers and negligible support for Smash in Japan due to long-standing pessimism. Yes, this is a tough pill to swallow for his fans, but this apparent revelation should not come as a blindside to anyone.

To offer a new perspective on why Sakurai might not care for Toad, remember how he expressed distaste for the idea of adding fighting game characters to Smash because they've already shown what they're capable of, and there's not much more you can do with them? Perhaps Toad's vast catalog of spin-off appearances have created a similar impression on Sakurai; he's been a small, strong guy in so many games...what more does he have to do than be small and strong in yet another?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I figured we'd get less newcomers for veteran series in Smash 4, so thus far the reveals and rumors don't really surprise me. Just because Toad is pretty unlikely doesn't mean that other potential newcomers like Palutena, K. Rool, Ridley or Mewtwo's chances are hurt, that's taking quite a leap. Toad was never really a sure-fire character, no potential Mario newcomer is, since they're all a notch down from the current Mario characters, Palutena, K. Rool and Ridley are the Peach (who can actually kick ass) and Bowsers of their respective series. I never counted on Toad to begin with, and seeing him being knocked further and further down doesn't really change my perspective whatsoever.

 

[Baskerville]

I always wanted Rosalina in this game since the start.
But to say she is inevitable? lolno, and this is coming from a big supporter.

 

[ChronoBound]

I figured we'd get less newcomers for veteran series in Smash 4, so thus far the reveals and rumors don't really surprise me. Just because Toad is pretty unlikely doesn't mean that other potential newcomers like Palutena, K. Rool, Ridley or Mewtwo's chances are hurt, that's taking quite a leap. Toad was never really a sure-fire character, no potential Mario newcomer is, since they're all a notch down from the current Mario characters, Palutena, K. Rool and Ridley are the Peach (who can actually kick ***) and Bowsers of their respective series. I never counted on Toad to begin with, and seeing him being knocked further and further down doesn't really change my perspective whatsoever.

The funny thing is that if Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, or Palutena is de-confirmed I can almost see posts like this for those respective characters. "If you were smart, they were never likely to begin with. Ridley was always too big. K. Rool was always long forgotten with his franchise. Dixie was not relevant at the time Sakurai decided the roster. Palutena was always a supporter, not a fighter."

 

[Deleted member]

Only difference is, they had/have (not sure which context to use) actual believable chances.
Toad didn't. Hell, the "single iconic Toad" was only fabrication made for America.

 

[Arcanir]

I'm really sorry Toad fans, this hasn't been a good experience for the poor little guy and yet again the situation looks bleaker for him.

In terms of what it means, it definitely helps Mario characters like Bowser Jr. who now don't have Toad to compete with. For other veterans I agree with BKupa and Wariofan1 in that Toad was unfortunately not up there with the other high-demand veterans so it doesn't change their chances at the moment.

 

[BKupa666]

The funny thing is that if Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, or Palutena is de-confirmed I can almost see posts like this for those respective characters. "If you were smart, they were never likely to begin with. Ridley was always too big. K. Rool was always long forgotten with his franchise. Dixie was not relevant at the time Sakurai decided the roster. Palutena was always a supporter, not a fighter."

Would their fans be disappointed? Of course. Would some people claim that size/relevance/more relevance/a stupid misconception, respectively, were the reasons those characters were excluded? Almost certainly, the same way dense people to this day are adamant that Mewtwo was obviously cut because Lucario replaced him, despite having absolutely no supporting evidence to back them up and evidence to the contrary existing. But Toad was never in the league of Ridley/K. Rool/Palutena/Little Mac, based on how we've seen him handled pre-release by Sakurai in the past, and the people who continually called him 'underrated' as a reason to lump him in with those other icons should have seen that coming.

 

[Rebellious Treecko]

The funny thing is that if Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, or Palutena is de-confirmed I can almost see posts like this for those respective characters. "If you were smart, they were never likely to begin with. Ridley was always too big. K. Rool was always long forgotten with his franchise. Dixie was not relevant at the time Sakurai decided the roster. Palutena was always a supporter, not a fighter."

Sour grapes. Sigh.

------

 

[Knight Dude]

The funny thing is that if Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, or Palutena is de-confirmed I can almost see posts like this for those respective characters. "If you were smart, they were never likely to begin with. Ridley was always too big. K. Rool was always long forgotten with his franchise. Dixie was not relevant at the time Sakurai decided the roster. Palutena was always a supporter, not a fighter."

And that's a shame too.

I personally feel most of those characters can work in Smash Bros too. I still want to play as Ridley. He's one of my personal favorite Nintendo villains. And it feels a little weird not having another Metroid character. I guess I like Ganondorf and Bowser about as much. And Wolf was always badass too. The only other really reasonable option for Metroid characters I can see is adding Dark Samus as a later addition to the roster.

I would say that Palutena not fighting would make sense. But considering that Zelda's moveset is based on magic the Link actually used, I say even she could have a viable moveset if one were to try hard enough. And she has a boss fight that could be worth looking into for inspiration.

Not really sure what to say about King K. Rool. He's popular, and he has a lot to offer. What more does a character really need to add?

 

[ChronoBound]

Like it or not, Toad is an iconic Nintendo character. That people are piling on him and his fans, is disrespectful.

That being said, I do think we are going to see the kind of mentality we have seen with Toad extended to even the likes of Ridley/K.Roo/Palutena (especially outside SmashBoards) if they end up not making it in Smash 4.

On the plus side of things, for you Waddle Dee fans out there, Kirby Triple Deluxe releases in January in Japan. Hopefully, we will see whether or not Bandanna Dee will continue to be a major player in the series.

Seeing how Sakurai has treated Toad and Toad fans, I am not personally optimistic on Bandanna Dee's chances (Return to Dream Land was similarly a best seller in Japan like NSMBWii was).

Not really sure what to say about King K. Rool. He's popular, and he has a lot to offer. What more does a character really need to add?

Detractors say K. Rool won't be in considering he has not been in a DK game since 2007, hence the argument about relevance against him.

That Marth was included in Melee over the Jugdral lords should be all the argument there is against relevance.

 

[Starbound]

MUH RELEVANCE has always been a flawed argument for or against character inclusion. I think more people are starting to realize it, but it's still kinda exasperating to spell it out to some.

I think the only way K. Rool won't get in this game is if Sakurai just chooses not to put him in.

...and that would be a shame. :<

 

[BKupa666]

I think Chronobound just inadvertently pointed out why K. Rool's (and Dixie's) scenarios are different from Toad's. Marth (and other veterans) are concrete evidence that the GameFAQs perception of "relevance" isn't applicable to Smash Bros., so even if a few "smart people" claim they foresaw K. Rool/Dixie being deemed "irrelevant", they're being self-importantly ignorant, not only because that perception of "relevance" has been proven inapplicable, but because Sakurai most likely won't go out and claim he left either out because of "relevance." It'll be his "personal criteria" that ultimately determines their fate, more than anything else; same goes for Ridley, Palutena, Little Mac, and those guys. Anyone else is just jumping to a baseless conclusion (read: Lucario replaced Mewtwo! for more on the subject).

Toad, meanwhile, has been posted up on the pre-game website for both Melee and Brawl as a Special move, and, a little while ago, a third time for this game, and every time, people are sure there's still some way Toad is going to weasel his way into the game on icon status alone. The prospect of never seeing a favorite character included is horribly sad for Toad supporters, but attaching his fate to the potential fates of dissimilar characters just comes across as a silly coping method at this point.

Also, I don't think anyone has piled on Toad's supporters thus far in this thread, and I hope my analyses aren't coming across that way, because that's not my intention. That being said, we aren't in the wake of some great tragedy here, where "too soon" becomes a valid excuse to just not talk about what has happened in any remotely critical manner.

 

[Deleted member]

Waddle Dee was always less likely to show than Toad given Sakurai's paranoia about giving his own series too much (sorry Chandelure).
Sakurai "treating Toad and his fans like ****" doesn't change anything.


Times attempted to post: 7

 

[ChronoBound]

Also, I don't think anyone has piled on Toad's supporters thus far in this thread, and I hope my analyses aren't coming across that way, because that's not my intention. That being said, we aren't in the wake of some great tragedy here, where "too soon" becomes a valid excuse to just not talk about what has happened in any remotely critical manner.

There are plenty of people that have wanted to see Toad playable since the pre-Melee days. I am not going to bring up how Toad is a Nintendo All-Star because its just going to be a waste of time (especially considering how I am being dogpiled for even bringing up how today's update may not be good news for veteran series newcomers in general).

So far, most of the Toad fans have not said anything, but imagine many are very disappointed.

 

[Morbi]

I was wondering what was so detrimental to Toad's inclusion, so I went to check the website. However, nothing has really changed per se. I am fairly certain that his chances are the exact same, but I am starting to doubt his inclusion as well. Obviously the picture is an allusion to the new Wii U game, and Toad just happens to be a part of Peach's move-set. It would be rational to assume that Toad would have made his debut on the Galaxy stage if he was playable.

However, I still find it difficult to assume that Bowser Jr. could make it in over Toad. It seems... well... not logical. I guess I still have hopes for Rosalina or Waluigi.

 

[Deleted member]

Koopa's an All-Star too.

EDIT:
How....is Jr. instead of Toad not logical, if Rosalina or Waluigi (and I say this as a Waluigi fan) are?
Jr. makes more sense then those two (again, saying that as a Waluigi fan).

 

[Rebellious Treecko]

There are plenty of people that have wanted to see Toad playable since the pre-Melee days. I am not going to bring up how Toad is a Nintendo All-Star because its just going to be a waste of time (especially considering how I am being dogpiled for even bringing up how today's update may not be good news for veteran series newcomers in general).

So far, most of the Toad fans have not said anything, but imagine many are very disappointed.

I've never been a fan of Toad (saw him/them? as kinda boring and had a neutral "meh" opinion.) However, I see him as the most logical and deserving choice for the next Mario newcomer, above Bowser Jr. and Waluigi.

I think he does qualify as an All-Star, seeing as Toads have been in since the first game and have made numerous playable appearances.

On a somewhat unrelated note, Toad also has the potential to hold heavy items and characters above his head like Donkey Kong, which is what I hope he would have in Smash. (not sure about the actual moveset)

-----

 

[Swamp Sensei]

There are plenty of people that have wanted to see Toad playable since the pre-Melee days. I am not going to bring up how Toad is a Nintendo All-Star because its just going to be a waste of time (especially considering how I am being dogpiled for even bringing up how today's update may not be good news for veteran series newcomers in general).

You're not being dogpiled. Where did this come from?

I don't think anyone here would argue he isn't an all star. All Bkupa was trying to do was state his observations. He wasn't attacking you at all.

 

[Knight Dude]

Koopa's an All-Star too.

EDIT:
How....is Jr. instead of Toad not logical, if Rosalina or Waluigi (and I say this as a Waluigi fan) are?
Jr. makes more sense then those two (again, saying that as a Waluigi fan).

Shy Guy's the biggest all star of them all.

Though yeah, Jr. would make more sense to me than Rosalina and Waluigi. Like, a lot more sense. He's the one Mario newcomer I'd want to see the most. Though I wouldn't particularly mind Rosalina either, but she isn't exactly a staple of the series quite yet.

I say if she is in another couple of main line games, I might change my mind.

 

[Morbi]

Koopa's an All-Star too.

EDIT:
How....is Jr. instead of Toad not logical, if Rosalina or Waluigi (and I say this as a Waluigi fan) are?
Jr. makes more sense then those two (again, saying that as a Waluigi fan).

It is based on arbitrary reasoning. There is not really a specific reason. I just don't see Sakurai using Bowser Jr. (which I am fairly certain would construe a clone mentality) as a new Mario character. Waluigi happens to have Smash relevance (assist trophy). I actually used to support Toad using the same perspective that Waluigi offers. Essentially he would properly represent Mario's party games (Mario party, Mario Kart, and Mario Sports). I see the correlation between Smash being a party game and what Waluigi represents. Not to mention it would finally include all of the brothers. Rosalina is the only playable Mario character (in a main title) that isn't playable in Smash if we weren't counting Toad. The Galaxy stage is more significant that Delfino Plaza given the circumstances. It might be hyperbole to assert that she is the more logical addition. I was mostly implying Waluigi is the next ideal candidate. I just happen to be a Rosalina fan, so her appearance would excite me.

Bowser Jr... is everything the Bowser is, a reoccurring villain. Mario doesn't really need another villain, let alone one that is so very similar to the one we already have. My biggest reason is an inference. If Sakurai made an overt effort to change Bowser (such as his posture and properties of his moves) why would we get Bowser Jr.? Would it not have been much more logical to retain Bowser's old appearance and apply the suggested changes to Bowser Jr. instead?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The funny thing is that if Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, or Palutena is de-confirmed I can almost see posts like this for those respective characters. "If you were smart, they were never likely to begin with. Ridley was always too big. K. Rool was always long forgotten with his franchise. Dixie was not relevant at the time Sakurai decided the roster. Palutena was always a supporter, not a fighter."

The reason people does go ahead and say that is because it's worth analyzing if we know certain characters are being excluded. In my case, I never really expected Toad, and that's not something I've only said just now. I'm not saying that there wasn't ever a reason to believe he'd be in, but I'm just saying I never personally saw him as a big candidate, I don't see any Mario characters as such, and I never have.

I think most people around here can agree that Ridley, K. Rool and Palutena are in a different league than Toad. If one of these aren't in, sure it's worth trying to figure out why.

 

[BKupa666]

There's basically a cluster of potential Mario newcomers that could be used to pad out the roster count by being added as semi-clones, in Bowser Jr., Doc, and perhaps Rosalina at this point. Barring Paper Mario being chosen as a unique character, or Sakurai surprising us by not giving a semi-clone moveset to a character with clear potential for one, which one of those three gets in largely hinges on which veteran's moveset Sakurai wants two variations on in the game.

 

[ChronoBound]

You're not being dogpiled. Where did this come from?
.

People are attacking my observation that Toad not making it into Smash 4 may not bode well for other possible veteran newcomers. What I went on to say is that what will especially not bode well for veteran newcomers is one of Ridley or Palutena being de-confirmed (I can't really see an opportunity for how K. Rool could possibly be de-confirmed prior to Smash 4's release).

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I suppose it's also possible Sakurai doesn't want a Mario newcomer at all. It wouldn't be that far-fetched.

People are attacking my observation that Toad not making it into Smash 4 may not bode well for other possible veteran newcomers. What I went on to say is that what will especially not bode well for veteran newcomers is one of Ridley or Palutena being de-confirmed (I can't really see an opportunity for how K. Rool could possibly be de-confirmed prior to Smash 4's release).

Disagreeing with you =/= attacking you or your observations.

 

[YoshiandToad]

What a disappointing day overall.

I really hope you Ridley supporters don't have to end up going through this, because honestly, it does feel like I've just been kicked in the balls.

Been hoping since pre-Melee for Toad, and with 3D World and NSMBWii/U I was hoping for Blue Toad at least but I guess Sakurai just won't budge on this one. I'm done, but now I have very little to look forward to with this Smash. It's gutting. Like seriously gutting.

Jr. is probably the most deserving Mario character overall now, not super hopeful for Waluigi's inclusion outside of Assist now either.

 

[Morbi]

People are attacking my observation that Toad not making it into Smash 4 may not bode well for other possible veteran newcomers. What I went on to say is that what will especially not bode well for veteran newcomers is one of Ridley or Palutena being de-confirmed (I can't really see an opportunity for how K. Rool could possibly be de-confirmed prior to Smash 4's release).

I actually agree with that sentiment, especially in the case of Ridley. The only difference is the notion that Ridley will actually be difficult to develop.

 

[Baskerville]

I think this picture just made Chrono more cynical of Ridley's chances than anything.

 

[TheTuninator]

Well, RIP Toad's chances.

 

[Deleted member]

@Morbid
Not really; Jr. throwing his weight around and performing big dropkicks doesn't quite feel right.
As for the change, it's more or less for the sake to be "modernized" than anything else. He hasn't been like his old appearance since the 64 era.
Bowser may be faster than he was before, but he isn't fast. Jr. emphasizes speed more than Papa, who emphasizes strength. Literally, the best comparison is Bowsers Sr. and Jr. is DK and Diddy.
Jr. is also frequently using a paintbrush and more commonly nowadays, his own Jr. Clown Car. On that regard, him being a mech fighter opens up a brand new style not seen in Smash yet. Sure, I'd rather see it go to Eggman, the mech fighter, but it's there.

Also, Nabbit was playable in a platformer (getting really tired of people labeling them as "main" games...). By the same reasoning as you give Rosalina, Nabbit should be logical too.

And (it pains me to do this) Waluigi is everything Wario is; a reoccurring dark doppleganger.
You and I both know about their differences, but that description is just as generalized as the "a reoccurring villain" comparison.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Btw, I'm not really attacking Toad or his supporters. I'd like Toad to be in, not because I like him myself, but because of his dedicated fanbase. I'd never play as him, but given how I'm not too invested in newcomers other than Ridley, many of the characters I want to see otherwise is mostly because I think they have a dedicated fanbase and deserve it. However, I don't think Toad's fanbase is incredibly big, it falls kind of in the middle, there's not enough demand for any Mario character to consider any of them as locks, especially not when Sakurai has said he's very careful about adding too many Mario characters. At most Bowser Jr. will be a funky semi-clone, otherwise I don't see it happening, and it's not that I don't want it, I just don't think it's happening.

 

[ChronoBound]

As I said in my Mario series analysis, there is a decent possibility we get no Mario newcomer at all.

2014 is going to be a rough ride in general. Toad fans just get to be the first ones to be disappointed this time around unfortunately. Its definitely a gut punch considering he has had fans since the pre-Melee days and how much prominence and exposure he has said since Brawl's release (going back to finally being a playable character in the main series even).

I expect Smash 4 to release during Q4 2014, so we really only have a year left of waiting and speculating.

 

[Morbi]

@Morbid
Not really; Jr. throwing his weight around and performing big dropkicks doesn't quite feel right.
As for the change, it's more or less for the sake to be "modernized" than anything else. He hasn't been like his old appearance since the 64 era.
Bowser may be faster than he was before, but he isn't fast. Jr. emphasizes speed more than Papa, who emphasizes strength. Literally, the best comparison is Bowsers Sr. and Jr. is DK and Diddy.
Jr. is also frequently using a paintbrush and more commonly nowadays, his own Jr. Clown Car. On that regard, him being a mech fighter opens up a brand new style not seen in Smash yet. Sure, I'd rather see it go to Eggman, the mech fighter, but it's there.

Also, Nabbit was playable in a platformer (getting really tired of people labeling them as "main" games...). By the same reasoning as you give Rosalina, Nabbit should be logical too.

And (it pains me to do this) Waluigi is everything Wario is; a reoccurring dark doppleganger.
You and I both know about their differences, but that description is just as generalized as the "a reoccurring villain" comparison.

I am not going to lie, I don't even know who Nabbit is.

 

[BKupa666]

I actually agree with that sentiment, especially in the case of Ridley. The only difference is the notion that Ridley will actually be difficult to develop.

I disagree (read: not dogpile) that Ridley is in a similar scenario as well. Sakurai admitted he'd be possible to develop in his Nintendo Power interview, so claiming he'd obviously be excluded for size/awkwardness reasons is to ignore character-specific evidence to the contrary straight from Sakurai. We have no way to gauge difficulty for developing Ridley compared to other characters, nor how much effort Sakurai is willing to put in on an individual character, so there's no basis for claiming those rationales kept Ridley out either. Ridley, too, hinges entirely on "personal criteria."

I also find it arbitrary to claim that one veteran series character affects all other veteran series characters when veteran series characters aren't one great collective entity, and shouldn't be handled as such. Maybe multiple ones will be decided against, but that's not a reflection of some great vendetta against veteran series characters, barring an unprecedented new series-only newcomer roster that we have no reason to expect.

 

[Deleted member]

Super Luigi U.

He's the one that replaces Mario.

You can probably figure the rest out on your own.
*yawn* stayed up too long. Gonna fall asleep and run around Johto now. Later.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Ya know....

Maybe there is hope for Toad...

He seems like a perfect candidate for DLC if it happens...

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Bowser Jr. has mostly relied on varying forms of weaponry throughout the Mario games. In fact, IIRC the only times Jr ever even uses a physical attack outside of a spin-off game is in New Super Mario Bros., and even then he only has one physical attack.

I can see Bowser Jr. sharing some shell attacks and fire breath at most, but he most certainly wouldn't be using moves like the drop kick or Flying Slam. Jr. using such moves just wouldn't look or feel right, that I'm certain of.

 

[Morbi]

I disagree (read: not dogpile) that Ridley is in a similar scenario as well. Sakurai admitted he'd be possible to develop in his Nintendo Power interview, so claiming he'd obviously be excluded for size/awkwardness reasons is to ignore character-specific evidence to the contrary straight from Sakurai. We have no way to gauge difficulty for developing Ridley compared to other characters, nor how much effort Sakurai is willing to put in on an individual character, so there's no basis for claiming those rationales kept Ridley out either. Ridley, too, hinges entirely on "personal criteria."

I also find it arbitrary to claim that one veteran series character affects all other veteran series characters when veteran series characters aren't one great collective entity, and shouldn't be handled as such. Maybe multiple ones will be decided against, but that's not a reflection of some great vendetta against veteran series characters, barring an unprecedented new series-only newcomer roster that we have no reason to expect.

The difficulty of developing Ridley has been prevalent, I am not just talking about post-Brawl. Sakurai hasn't necessarily submitted evidence, he merely stated that it was a possibility, so there is no rational basis one way or the other. Unless he actually attempted to develop Ridley prior to the interview, the quote is irrelevant. I am almost certain the the statement was made precedent to his decision to develop the game on the 3DS as well. I am not entirely sure of the implications, but I am certain that managing to make him work on the 3DS will be problematic. Obviously you alluded to this notion in your post. I think that Sakurai has already insinuated such by making Ridley a boss battle as opposed to a playable character. That is just my opinion though.

Indeed.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Toad as DLC?

Personally I don't care too much about Toad, but I'd still be happy to see him get in. He'd be a nice DLC choice indeed.