Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[Arcanir]

No Ridley: He's a boss. Casuals know him as a Brawl Boss.

...So 'casuals' have to dictate every aspect? Tell me then, how do they know about ROB? How about Lucas or Ness? By your logic, they shouldn't even be characters because they don't even register on the radar of most casuals.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Can I just say how much I disagree with the concept of Wii Fit Trainer, R.O.B., and Mr. Game and Watch all being in one group of "WTF characters"?

I don't want to get flamed for this, but I see it as a rather ridiculous concept.

I see R.O.B. and Mr. Game and Watch as historical characters. They both got in because they represent a part of Nintendo's history; R.O.B. being the one that literally may have saved the video game industry as a whole and Mr. Game and Watch as the representation for the device that got Nintendo into handheld systems and whatnot.

I see Wii Fit Trainer as a character more like Zero Suit Samus or (to a lesser extent) Sheik. All of them were (female) characters that were revealed at E3 that not many people were expecting, but that, in the end, made perfect sense. Wii Fit Trainer simply was received a bit worse than Zero Suit Samus and (kinda) Sheik.

Because of this, I am still expecting another character that will be branded a "WTF character", but that is actually a historical character like R.O.B. and Mr. Game and Watch. I do not expect this character to be revealed before the game's release, just like R.O.B. and Mr. Game and Watch were, and I expect many of my fellow speculators to get upset because they were not able to predict them (just like R.O.B.).

Is there a flaw to my logic, or what?

I've always seen them as less "WTF" and more "characters that shaped Nintendo's history". Wii Fit has done a lot for bringing in an audience who wouldn't normally be classed as 'gamers' and allowed the Wii to become very successful.

I do however, follow your logic, and you could very well be right. Wii Fit Trainer, at least at this point, isn't a historical character from yesteryear.

Trying to avoid the word retro is actually quite hard.

 

[EddyBearr]

I view Wii Fit trainer as a "Wii" character, just like Mii. I also tend to view all the games, like Wii Fit, as "Wii Games".

G&W was a definite "wtf" during Melee, as were IC's, but by Brawl the "Retro" and "historical" trend was set.

...So 'casuals' have to dictate every aspect? Tell me then, how do they know about ROB? How about Lucas or Ness? By your logic, they shouldn't even be characters because they don't even register on the radar of most casuals.

I think the consumer base should dictate every aspect. If this was Street Fighter 28, then the consumer base would be "competitive maniacs" as Sakurai called them, and the competitive community should dictate the roster. The vast majority of the consumer base for this "Nintendo party game" is, indeed, casuals. It's the millions of families with a 8-16 year old kids. They are the people who generate the numbers, and generate the revenue, that even allows this game to continue existing.

They didn't really know much about R.O.B., Lucas, or Ness, at their release. For most casuals I've spoken to, Ness has just been "a Smash character" and Lucas is "a Ness character."
R.O.B. should not be a character. Since Lucas was unable to replace Ness in Melee as was planned, he should not be a character. One Mother rep happened because PAL developed SSB64 & Earthbound, so this was "developer's legacy" as opposed to consumer demand.

 

[Pacack]

I've always seen them as less "WTF" and more "characters that shaped Nintendo's history". Wii Fit has done a lot for bringing in an audience who wouldn't normally be classed as 'gamers' and allowed the Wii to become very successful.

I do however, follow your logic, and you could very well be right. Wii Fit Trainer, at least at this point, isn't a historical character from yesteryear.

Trying to avoid the word retro is actually quite hard.

I honestly don't think that works for Wii Fit Trainer. If we're looking at characters that shaped Nintendo's history, wouldn't Mii be a better choice?

And I tend to use Retro to refer to a new character like Ice Climbers and Pit (I expect Takamaru, but could be wrong.)

I view Wii Fit trainer as a "Wii" character, just like Mii. I also tend to view all the games, like Wii Fit, as "Wii Games".

G&W was a definite "wtf" during Melee, as were IC's, but by Brawl the "Retro" and "historical" trend was set.

Actually, that cannot be the case. The Wii Fit Trainer's icon is of a person doing yoga, not the Wii logo.

I think Sakurai came up with the idea of adding one retro and historical character during Melee and has simply decided to make it a pattern. (So, basically, I agree.)

 

[EddyBearr]

Actually, that cannot be the case. The Wii Fit Trainer's icon is of a person doing yoga, not the Wii logo.

I think Sakurai came up with the idea of adding one retro and historical character during Melee and has simply decided to make it a pattern. (So, basically, I agree.)

I know it's not really the case. In the same way, Wario and Yoshi are "Mario characters." That's who they're associated with most. I think Wii Fit is just a franchise for the sake of being called a franchise, as opposed to really being something that separates it from other games (particularly, Wii Fit, Wii Sports, etc.)

 

[Arcanir]

-Again, trying to appease casuals. I'm trying to sell a game, and it is them that gives me revenue.
-R.O.B. seems far more suited for assist trophy. He doesn't feel like a "character" you can "play as," but more like a "tool" you can "use." I do predict he'll become an assist trophy.
-I talk about casuals as if they make up the bulk of game sales. We on Smashboards are what Sakurai calls "maniacs." Smash Bros is a game geared towards people who own a wii u and play it with their brothers/sisters/friends. Anyone hoping to make a game that pleases the base, will make a game that pleases the casuals and intermediates (sakurai even said so for intermediates) above the "maniacs," which really are few in number.
-No where did I even imply that casuals do not like to play as bosses. What should have been interpreted is that people will play SSB4, see Ridley as a playable character, and think back to him in Brawl. "Why is he so much smaller? Why isn't he a boss anymore?" It would lead to a lot of confusion.
.

-With Mario, Pokemon, WFT and the like, casuals are already interested, don't overstate their influence.
-Based on what, opinion? ROB was chosen because Sakurai felt he worked as a character, not an AT or otherwise.
-Again, don't overstate the casuals' influence, they have just as much as any other fan.
-Charizard was a Pokeball Pokemon, why is he playable? I'M SO CONFUSED!!!

They didn't really know much about R.O.B., Lucas, or Ness, at their release. For most casuals I've spoken to, Ness has just been "a Smash character" and Lucas is "a Ness character."
R.O.B. should not be a character. Since Lucas was unable to replace Ness in Melee as was planned, he should not be a character. One Mother rep happened because PAL developed SSB64 & Earthbound, so this was "developer's legacy" as opposed to consumer demand.

Still doesn't take away from the fact that those characters do not appeal to that audience. Smash caters to both casuals and hardcores, not one or the other when it comes to their characters. I'm wondering why you're trying to push so hard that casuals should have an extremely dominating influence on it when it never has.

 

[Pacack]

I know it's not really the case. In the same way, Wario and Yoshi are "Mario characters." That's who they're associated with most. I think Wii Fit is just a franchise for the sake of being called a franchise, as opposed to really being something that separates it from other games (particularly, Wii Fit, Wii Sports, etc.)

I understand. They're knit, even if they're not the same thing.

 

[EddyBearr]

-With Mario, Pokemon, WFT and the like, casuals are already interested, don't overstate their influence.

-Based on what, opinion? ROB was chosen because Sakurai felt he worked as a character, not an AT or otherwise.
-Again, don't overstate the casuals' influence, they have just as much as any other fan.
-Charizard was a Pokeball Pokemon, why is he playable? I'M SO CONFUSED!!!

-Casuals are already interested, but with casuals numbering in the millions (presumably 10m+), don't forget of the chance that there's a a thousand saying "I'll stick with Brawl unless Bowser Jr is in," or Krystal, or etc. That translates into a year's salary for a developer.
-What I think would matter for Smash, so yes, opinion. The reason I cut R.O.B. is because I expect a few cuts, and expect R.O.B. to be one of hte most likely ones.
-I think you're underestimating them. They do have just as much input as any other fan, but casuals outnumber "any other fan" like 100 to 1. They are literally 100x more important, in terms of getting the game to sell, than those on SWF.
-Charizard technically still is a pokeball pokemon (the character is the trainer,) and Charizard didn't experience a change in size of 300%+, like Ridley would. Faulty comparison.

Still doesn't take away from the fact that those characters do not appeal to that audience. Smash caters to both casuals and hardcores, not one or the other when it comes to their characters. I'm wondering why you're trying to push so hard that casuals should have an extremely dominating influence on it when it never has.

There simply are not very many hardcore gamers. Casuals do indeed have an "extremely dominating influence" because they are the "extremely dominating demographic."
"We wanna avoid a situation where it becomes a game sort of like other competitive fighting games, where it's only apreciated by a very small, passionate group of sort of maniac players." - Masahiro Sakurai

There simply are not that many "hardcore Smashers" proportionally. Do you truly believe that the millions of copies Smash sells (in the U.S.) has all that much to do with the maybe 10k people in the U.S. who have ever attented a smash tourney, or taught themselves tech skill?

I'd argue that the only reason "hardcore smashers" have a voice, because we're so low in number when it comes to the huge title that is Smash Bros, is because we're super picky, and can always threaten to fall back into Melee or various mods.

 

[TumblrFamous]

-Casuals are already interested, but with casuals numbering in the millions (presumably 10m+), don't forget of the chance that there's a a thousand saying "I'll stick with Brawl unless Bowser Jr is in," or Krystal, or etc. That translates into a year's salary for a developer.
-What I think would matter for Smash, so yes, opinion. The reason I cut R.O.B. is because I expect a few cuts, and expect R.O.B. to be one of hte most likely ones.
-I think you're underestimating them. They do have just as much input as any other fan, but casuals outnumber "any other fan" like 100 to 1. They are literally 100x more important, in terms of getting the game to sell, than those on SWF.
-Charizard technically still is a pokeball pokemon (the character is the trainer,) and Charizard didn't experience a change in size of 300%+, like Ridley would. Faulty comparison.

There simply are not very many hardcore gamers. Casuals do indeed have an "extremely dominating influence" because they are the "extremely dominating demographic."
"We wanna avoid a situation where it becomes a game sort of like other competitive fighting games, where it's only apreciated by a very small, passionate group of sort of maniac players." - Masahiro Sakurai

There simply are not that many "hardcore Smashers" proportionally. Do you truly believe that the millions of copies Smash sells (in the U.S.) has all that much to do with the maybe 10k people in the U.S. who have ever attented a smash tourney, or taught themselves tech skill?

I'd argue that the only reason "hardcore smashers" have a voice, because we're so low in number when it comes to the huge title that is Smash Bros, is because we're super picky, and can always threaten to fall back into Melee or various mods.

Please, I just want one post by you to explain why ROB is a bad choice.

Sakurai has said himself that he wants to balance between hardcore and casuals, so he will most likely add some casual characters, like say WFT and Villager, and some choices casual gamers would not expect. It's not one or the other, it's both. Smash 4 is a balance between the two.

 

[Pacack]

Please, I just want one post by you to explain why ROB is a bad choice.

Sakurai has said himself that he wants to balance between hardcore and casuals, so he will most likely add some casual characters, like say WFT and Villager, and some choices casual gamers would not expect. It's not one or the other, it's both. Smash 4 is a balance between the two.

I agree.

And I think R.O.B. is definitely getting back in since Mr. Game and Watch wasn't cut for Brawl. If there are cuts (and I expect a few), I can practically guarantee that R.O.B. will not be one.

 

[Arcanir]

-Casuals are already interested, but with casuals numbering in the millions (presumably 10m+), don't forget of the chance that there's a a thousand saying "I'll stick with Brawl unless Bowser Jr is in," or Krystal, or etc. That translates into a year's salary for a developer.
.

Only the really selfish really do things like that, most would buy the game regardless of if their favorite character doesn't get in.

-What I think would matter for Smash, so yes, opinion. The reason I cut R.O.B. is because I expect a few cuts, and expect R.O.B. to be one of hte most likely ones.

Personal opinion has no effect on who really gets cut. You may not like ROB, but there's no indication that Sakurai would remove him and he's not appealing just to you.

-I think you're underestimating them. They do have just as much input as any other fan, but casuals outnumber "any other fan" like 100 to 1. They are literally 100x more important, in terms of getting the game to sell, than those on SWF.

And that hasn't changed since Brawl or Melee, and yet we still got characters like Mr. Game and Watch, Pit (at the time), ROB and the like. Casuals are appealed to, but to say that they'll have the most dominating influence is ridiculous considering it never has been the case.

-Charizard technically still is a pokeball pokemon (the character is the trainer,) and Charizard didn't experience a change in size of

Terrible justification, he's still playable despite not being in the previous games. Also, other fighting games have had boss characters become playable, just look at Shao Khan in MK.

And do not push the too big argument, that's been done to death.

There simply are not very many hardcore gamers. Casuals do indeed have an "extremely dominating influence" because they are the "extremely dominating demographic."
"We wanna avoid a situation where it becomes a game sort of like other competitive fighting games, where it's only apreciated by a very small, passionate group of sort of maniac players." - Masahiro Sakurai

And tell me, where does it say "I'm going to completely ignore the "maniac" players in favor of them?" Sakurai has and never will completely cater to either group when it comes to their characters, look at any roster from 64 to Brawl and you'd see that. You're not giving any good justification for why hardcores should be completely ignored for the casuals when previous games have never done that in terms of their characters. On top of that, Sakurai has went on record that he's appealing to both groups this time around as well.

Really, casual or hardcore, this has never been an issue when it cames to the characters. The roster was always good at balancing them out, so for you to say that one group should and will be completely favored over the other is a completely unfounded notion.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Most likely on the brink of having another R.O.B. discussion...

Called it.

I agree.


And I think R.O.B. is definitely getting back in since Mr. Game and Watch wasn't cut for Brawl. If there are cuts (and I expect a few), I can practically guarantee that R.O.B. will not be one.

I remember Pre-Brawl, people were considering Game and Watch a cut character because he was an odd choice, didn't make any sense, and overall sucked. That changed when Brawl came along, and now there are people against ROB.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

so guys what is going on . . . . . . .
another R.O.B discussion, huh
most likely in the end we are going to have another Mr.G&W moment where he looks odd now but over time people will see him as a permanent roster choice.
give it a few years it will happen

 

[Morbi]

Called it.

I remember Pre-Brawl, people were considering Game and Watch a cut character because he was an odd choice, didn't make any sense, and overall sucked. That changed when Brawl came along, and now there are people against ROB.

I think it has to do with the fact that he doesn't really have any fans. Game and Watch doesn't either. People are more accepting of him now because he already made it in Brawl. It has less to do with the notion that he doesn't have a huge player base, and more to do with the fact that most players would prefer somebody else. So that distaste translates to ROB instead of Game and Watch this time around. I am not going to lie. I do not like ROB either, the only reason I don't want him cut is because he DOES have a player base. It would be right to cut their favorite character. Especially because he got in on his own merit.

Would I miss him if he was cut? No. Not really. Do I think it will happen? Of course not.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I think it has to do with the fact that he doesn't really have any fans. Game and Watch doesn't either. People are more accepting of him now because he already made it in Brawl. It has less to do with the notion that he doesn't have a huge player base, and more to do with the fact that most players would prefer somebody else. So that distaste translates to ROB instead of Game and Watch this time around. I am not going to lie. I do not like ROB either, the only reason I don't want him cut is because he DOES have a player base. It would be right to cut their favorite character. Especially because he got in on his own merit.

Would I miss him if he was cut? No. Not really. Do I think it will happen? Of course not.

You're pretty much right. I like ROB, but a cut is a cut. If he's cut, I'd be upset, but hey. It's a game. I just don't think he has a true reason to be cut. As you said, he got in on his own merits, so that should count for something.

 

[Pacack]

I think it has to do with the fact that he doesn't really have any fans. Game and Watch doesn't either. People are more accepting of him now because he already made it in Brawl. It has less to do with the notion that he doesn't have a huge player base, and more to do with the fact that most players would prefer somebody else. So that distaste translates to ROB instead of Game and Watch this time around. I am not going to lie. I do not like ROB either, the only reason I don't want him cut is because he DOES have a player base. It would be right to cut their favorite character. Especially because he got in on his own merit.

Would I miss him if he was cut? No. Not really. Do I think it will happen? Of course not.

To be fair, I'm a fan of them both. I love historical characters.

 

[Tepig2000]

My roster.

 

[Autumn ♫]

View attachment 3430

My roster.

Add Vaati to the Zelda section and it's perfect.

 

[Louie G.]

ROB almost singlehandedly saved gaming.
He deserves to be in more than a majority of the roster.
Yeah, I just said that.

 

[Morbi]

View attachment 3430

My roster.

Toad and Bowser Jr. I don't really want to advocate the use of a logical fallacy. I honestly think it is going to be one or the other though. I don't necessarily feel that way about K. Rool and Dixie. There might be enough room for both of them. Toon Zelda made me laugh. Tingle is the only deserving representative. I know that it is an uphill argument because Sakurai actually planned for her. I have no idea what he was thinking. Toon Ganondorf would almost be a necessity at that rate. Tingle is the only other Zelda rep that has frequent appearances aside from Impa. Not to mention his spin off series and vast popularity in Japan. That is assuming Zelda actually gets another character. Just my perspective.

I just noticed Shulk over Palutena... haha. I do not think that will happen. AT ALL. I guess it could happen though.

 

[Pacack]

View attachment 3430

My roster.

It's different, and I don't see a lot of it happening, but I'd be decently content if this was the final roster. Could use some more organization, though.

Toad should be after Peach, and before Bowser, while Bowser Jr. should fall right after Bowser (Just noting, I can see two new Mario characters if they're Toad and Bowser Jr., even if I don't see it as likely).

Everything else is fairly organized, but I think it'd look better if it was more horizontal than vertical.

 

[Tepig2000]

Add Vaati to the Zelda section and it's perfect.

If I was to add another character, it would be Mii.

Toad and Bowser Jr. I don't really want to advocate the use of a logical fallacy. I honestly think it is going to be one or the other though. I don't necessarily feel that way about K. Rool and Dixie. There might be enough room for both of them. Toon Zelda made me laugh. Tingle is the only deserving representative. I know that it is an uphill argument because Sakurai actually planned for her. I have no idea what he was thinking. Toon Ganondorf would almost be a necessity at that rate. Tingle is the only other Zelda rep that has frequent appearances aside from Impa. Not to mention his spin off series and vast popularity in Japan. That is assuming Zelda actually gets another character. Just my perspective.

I added toon Zelda because she's not important but if sakurai wants to add last-minute clones she is perfect.

 

[Autumn ♫]

If I was to add another character, it would be Mii.

but...but Vaati...

 

[Louie G.]

Forget Vaati and Toon Zelda.

This guy is the only good option.

 

[Conviction]

I think the consumer base should dictate every aspect. If this was Street Fighter 28, then the consumer base would be "competitive maniacs" as Sakurai called them, and the competitive community should dictate the roster.

Us competitive players ask for the same sane and insane character choices for upcoming Smashes, hell, this time around most of us are satisfied with the current Brawl roster+the newcomers already announced and we won't need anyone else. We aren't some foreign group for everything. The difference between us are, casuals don't go into technical depth for Smash while competitive community does and we pick and choose what would make the game most enjoyable in a tournament setting. That being said, I reiterate, we don't demand characters for competitive aspects we just want our same childhood fantasies that everyone else wants.

In short, we care about gameplay more than characters.

 

[Morbi]

I added toon Zelda because she's not important but if sakurai wants to add last-minute clones she is perfect.

I honestly think a last minute clone like Roy would be WAY better. Not only are you programming two characters with Zelda, but she isn't necessarily a popular choice. We already have Toon Link, we don't need to go Pegasus. Roy on the other hand is the most popular plausible rep in Japan (aside from Mewtwo) and fairly popular in the West too. I think he would be the better choice.

 

[TumblrFamous]

View attachment 3430

My roster.

I suggest getting rid of either Toad or Bowser Jr. and Meowth. Replace those slots with the Mii like you wanted, and Palutena. May I also suggest to only keep either Dixie or K. Rool. I don't see getting both of them. Maybe get rid of one in favor of Takamaru?

 

[SchAlternate]

View attachment 3430

My roster.

It has Meowth in it. INSTANT APPROVE! 5/5!

 

[Autumn ♫]

Forget Vaati and Toon Zelda.

This guy is the only good option.

Who needs Tingle when you've got Vaati?

 

[Tepig2000]

but...but Vaati...

He's bottom priority.

Toad and Bowser Jr. I don't really want to advocate the use of a logical fallacy. I honestly think it is going to be one or the other though. I don't necessarily feel that way about K. Rool and Dixie. There might be enough room for both of them. Toon Zelda made me laugh. Tingle is the only deserving representative. I know that it is an uphill argument because Sakurai actually planned for her. I have no idea what he was thinking. Toon Ganondorf would almost be a necessity at that rate. Tingle is the only other Zelda rep that has frequent appearances aside from Impa. Not to mention his spin off series and vast popularity in Japan. That is assuming Zelda actually gets another character. Just my perspective.

I just noticed Shulk over Palutena... haha. I do not think that will happen. AT ALL. I guess it could happen though.

About the Shulk over Palutena part:

I don't think Palutena is that important. Sakurai created Kid Icarus Uprising and Kid Icarus is now considered an important franchise to Nintendo, but it is still small.

It's different, and I don't see a lot of it happening, but I'd be decently content if this was the final roster. Could use some more organization, though.

Toad should be after Peach, and before Bowser, while Bowser Jr. should fall right after Bowser (Just noting, I can see two new Mario characters if they're Toad and Bowser Jr., even if I don't see it as likely).

Everything else is fairly organized, but I think it'd look better if it was more horizontal than vertical.

I tried to make it different from Brawl's roster.

 

[Louie G.]

Who needs Tingle when you've got Vaati?

Tingle is more recurring and overall important to Zelda as a whole.
He would rep the franchise better.

 

[Morbi]

He's bottom priority.



About the Shulk over Palutena part:

I don't think Palutena is that important. Sakurai created Kid Icarus Uprising and Kid Icarus is now considered an important franchise to Nintendo, but it is still small.



I tried to make it different from Brawl's roster.

I honestly think that Kid Icarus is more important than Mother, which has two reps. That could just be me though. Not to mention Palutena is requested up the ass.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Tingle is more recurring and overall important to Zelda as a whole.
He would rep the franchise better.

It's not like he has better roles than Vaati does, at least Vaat's been the main villain in 2 games, all Tingle really does is give you maps and Kinstones.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

It's not like he has better roles than Vaati does, at least Vaat's been the main villain in 2 games, all Tingle really does is give you maps and Kinstones.

Yeah. It's not like Tingle has a series of his own!

Oh wait...

 

[Morbi]

It's not like he has better roles than Vaati does, at least Vaat's been the main villain in 2 games, all Tingle really does is give you maps and Kinstones.

Yes. Of course, the "we need more villains" perspective. I honestly think it is more fallacious than the "we need more females" argument. Tingles role in the game is irrelevant. Tingles appearances and popularity can be quantified, they are objective and absolute. Vaati is more qualitative, or based on irrational empirical data.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Yeah. It's not like Tingle has a series of his own!

Oh wait...

Then why not have him represent his own series? Like how DK, Yoshi, and Wario do.

Yes. Of course, the "we need more villains" perspective. I honestly think it is more fallacious than the "we need more females" argument. Tingles role in the game is irrelevant. Tingles appearances and popularity can be quantified, they are objective and absolute. Vaati is more qualitative, or based on irrational empirical data.

Roles in the games aren't important? Than explain why we have Bowser instead of one of his children.
Half of Tingles appearances are also cameo's and Tingle is one of the least popular Zelda characters in the states and Vaati is the 3rd most wanted Zelda newcomer in the West.

 

[Pacack]

Then why not have him represent his own series? Like how DK, Yoshi, and Wario do.

Because Dr. Mario.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Because Dr. Mario.

Dr.Mario is Mario, thus that's why he's part of the Mario characters. Tingle is not Link or Zelda, Tingle is his own character.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

There is no reason to cut R.O.B. As prievously mentioned, Sakurai never said the dedicated competitive fanbase does not matter at all. Mr. G&W got in Brawl in spite of his popularity. I feel the things that occured with Mr. G&W are just repeating with ROB.

Heck, he saved Nintendo and practically the whole gaming industry. He deserves to be in Smash. And moveset possibilites didn't stop him from getting in Brawl with the ability to shoot lasers and use rocket boosters. Moveset is not an issue. Neither is ROB's rather campy playstyle, and camping is a rather popular strategy among many online gamers where such strategies exist. If it's really an issue, Sakurai could easily change ROB.

 

[EddyBearr]

Please, I just want one post by you to explain why ROB is a bad choice.

Sakurai has said himself that he wants to balance between hardcore and casuals, so he will most likely add some casual characters, like say WFT and Villager, and some choices casual gamers would not expect. It's not one or the other, it's both. Smash 4 is a balance between the two.

Sakurai didn't say he's looking for a balance between the two. On the contrary, he said he doesn't incorporate them very much at all, again dismissing them as "very small." Sakurai is a businessman who wants to maximize revenue. Never forget that.

Sakurai said he's looking to please "intermediates." Truth by told, most "true casuals," the parents who buy Smash Bros. for their 13 year old for Christmas, don't care much about the roster, but the intermediates would. I lumped them in with the casuals, because they can sort of fit in that definition. The casuals are the ones who would say, "oh, cool, a new Smash is coming out. I sure hope the have Krystal or Baby Bowser, maybe get rid of one of those Ness or Marth characters" (gotta remember, this is U.S. perspective. Fire Emblem isn't too big.) Those "intermediates" are the ones that need to be won over, and they still outnumber us massively.

To clarify, I have met a few casuals who literally refer to them as "ness characters" or "marth characters." While we're busy looking at who means what to the Mother series, casuals are looking forward to playing as the characters that they're playing as right now. Sorry for using anecdotal evidence, and I wish I had some empirical evidence to work with, but if I'm going to predict a full roster, I'm going to have to work with what I've got, unless my predicted roster consists solely of confirmed characters.

[collapse="Sakurai"]Kotaku: Do you ever talk to the high-level competitive players when you're balancing Smash Bros.?
Sakurai: Mostly I don't incorporate feedback like that. Smash Bros. tries to target the intermediate players. When you try to please the competitive players the most, you end up targeting a very small group of people.[/collapse]
Link again
Keyword: targeting. This is business lingo. This is target audience.

Smash doesn't pay attention to most SWF interests, we are a competitive "high-level" forum. Smash targets the "kinda casuals" who might express interest in a good roster, might hit a tournament to try it, watch a few videos sometimes, but largely doesn't take it to our level.

For R.O.B.
1. Lack of personality. He feels more like a "tool" that you "use" than a "character" you "roleplay" as.
2. Lack of personal moveset. R.O.B.'s moves are largely an improvision "cause he's a robot," and not movesets that represent who he was supposed to be as a character. Sakurai talks about why Samus is floaty, based on her physics in her games. 10+ of Mario's attacks are taken directly, same motion and everything, from other games. Same with Wii Fit Trainer (though they made the small leap into "attack when you stretch" as opposed to just "stretch." The motion is still down.) Same with Villager to a large extent, though instead of just chopping down trees, he chops down trees "on opponents." Small extrapolation. Undeniably, the moves a character uses actually having meaning to a character matters, and R.O.B. is the only character who not only has no personal moves, but can't have any, because he was never a "doer."
3. Lack of appeal. It seems the folks who like R.O.B. are the ones who are serious and passionate enough to care about whether or not it saved video gaming. The majority of the audience more just wants to play as their favorite Nintendo character, as advertised on the game's boxes/etc. Outside of people who like robots, casual support for R.O.B. is very low.
4. Very harsh fan reception (in the west for sure, idk about Japan) on his unveil. It was too late to take him out then, but I feel they're going to just go ahead and avoid this negative reception to begin with, even if he is a veteran. Of course people who buy the game are eventually going to learn to tolerate, maybe even appreciate, R.O.B., but those aren't the people we want to convince to buy the game: they bought it, and played it for a long while, anyways. It's the folks who saw R.O.B. and were very hesitant to buy/play the game, or felt like Nintendo was no longer taking it seriously by including such a non-icon. It's the folks who had a bad first impression of the game that potentially wasn't able to get shaken off during the early stages of playing the game.
5. There are just plain better-selling characters to put in. Characters that are more wanted, more favored, and more looked forward to. Again, it's only the select few who come on SWF or etc. and debate Nintendo history that appreciate what he has done for Nintendo.
5.5. Corporations making decisions with a board of directors tend to focus on their bottom line. Many of the folks who get into these positions get there through being really pragmatic non-idealists who could turn a profit very effectively. These aren't the people who are going to say, "let's keep R.O.B. because he's important to Nintendo," or even the folks who'd say "Let's keep Lucas so we don't hurt our old buddy PAL's feelings." These boards need to come to a vote, and in a capitalist system, in a corporation with a bottom line of "more revenue," personal ideals and subjective values are going to be thrown away a lot quicker than potential increases in revenue.
6. Game & Watch is everything he is not. Game & watch has personal moves, became a fan favorite, had a more positive shock value, and actually was a video game character, which has previously been said to truly matter.
7. R.O.B.'s extremely inorganic feel heavily hurts his ability to "feel right" in a roster filled with living things. Sucks for R.O.B., but discrimination is a real thing.

Only the really selfish really do things like that, most would buy the game regardless of if their favorite character doesn't get in.

And again, in a game with millions of potential customers, those "really selfish," or more properly, the "really unhyped" people who'd do that start to add up. 0.1% chance of a person being like that, when your number is 10 million, ends up being 10,000. That probably amounts to 1.5-2mil+ in sales (Smash itself, wii us, 3ds, smash for 3ds, controllers, cables, etc. These "rare, selfish people" result in big numbers if we're working with big numbers.

Personal opinion has no effect on who really gets cut. You may not like ROB, but there's no indication that Sakurai would remove him and he's not appealing just to you.

Personal roster predictions are made by the person. It includes, where definitive evidence lacks, a need to utilize one's own subjective system of valuation to determine what is or isn't likely, unless they want to end up with a predicted roster that only consists of confirmed characters.
No where did I say it was fact. I made it pretty clear that it's what I expect.

And that hasn't changed since Brawl or Melee, and yet we still got characters like Mr. Game and Watch, Pit (at the time), ROB and the like. Casuals are appealed to, but to say that they'll have the most dominating influence is ridiculous considering it never has been the case.

Mr G&W, R.O.B., Pit, and IC's were all understood as added by the developor's because they wanted 'historical" and "retro" choices. The big difference between Pit, IC's, and MR G&W, vs R.O.B., was reception.R.O.B. received a terrible reception, at first, which is the time that actually matters.

Terrible justification, he's still playable despite not being in the previous games. Also, other fighting games have had boss characters become playable, just look at Shao Khan in MK.
And do not push the too big argument, that's been done to death.

So is every other newcomer. It does not change the huge difference in feeling between fighting a gigantic Ridley, and playing a small one, from one game to the next. This is nothing like Charizard. Alongside that, Charizard didn't break new ground by being the first Pokemon to be playable, but Ridley would break new ground (in the casual's eye) by being the first "Smash boss" to be playable. Tabuu, Master Hand, Petey Piranha, and Ridley are all fitting into the schema of "Smash Bro's boss." Only Metroid fans, an audience that is often older and less interested in Nintendo Party games, would take special note of Ridley.
And though smash is technically a fighting game, it is more properly associated with other Nintendo Party games. Fighting games are all about testing serious skill for serious players, but Smash is far more about playing with your friends and family, seeing who gets the pokeball that just spawned, and chasing smash balls. It is far more fruitful to compare SSB4 to Mario Party 4, in terms of what kind of content and emphasis to expect.
As for hte size argument, I don't preach it in the normal sense. Any character, or even any enemy (Bulborb in Brawl) can be re sized, but a character that is already fixed in the minds of the consumer base showing up radically different for no apparent reason is just going to be confusing.

And tell me, where does it say "I'm going to completely ignore the "maniac" players in favor of them?" Sakurai has and never will completely cater to either group when it comes to their characters, look at any roster from 64 to Brawl and you'd see that. You're not giving any good justification for why hardcores should be completely ignored for the casuals when previous games have never done that in terms of their characters. On top of that, Sakurai has went on record that he's appealing to both groups this time around as well.

Where did I say that hardcores should be, or will be, completely ignored? Indeed, I said the input of ALL potential customers matters, including hardcore gamers. I also said that the hardcore gamers get a handicap, because they tend to be picky. The link very explicitly says, "Mostly I don't incorporate [hardcore gamer input.]" It does not say "entirely" and I never suggested it said "entirely." What I said is that they have far, far, far more influence than us, because there are far, far, far more than us. It sucks to know how insignificant one's self is, but that's kinda how it is. We really don't do much for this Nintendo Party Game's sales. Hardcore gamers were heavily disappointed in Brawl, and many of us didn't buy it because of that. But what happened with Brawl? It had wayyyyy more sales than Melee. We are not the target audience (we are a fringe audience,) and to be honest, we shouldn't be the target audience. That's just a bad business strategy.

Really, casual or hardcore, this has never been an issue when it cames to the characters. The roster was always good at balancing them out, so for you to say that one group should and will be completely favored over the other is a completely unfounded notion.

I say that a group of 10million people's corroborating input should matter more than a group of 10,000 people's. If Nintendo want's to be able to make a return on the money it invested into this game, it should focus on where it can get more sales. A truly unfounded notion is suggesting that a tiny minority should be treated on equal terms as a truly massive majority.
And I dunno about you, but I noticed some serious "intermediate" casual backlash at Bowser Jr and Krystal not being in the game. No doubt this lost some money for Nintendo, for characters that adding wouldn't cost sales.

I think it has to do with the fact that he doesn't really have any fans. Game and Watch doesn't either. People are more accepting of him now because he already made it in Brawl. It has less to do with the notion that he doesn't have a huge player base, and more to do with the fact that most players would prefer somebody else. So that distaste translates to ROB instead of Game and Watch this time around. I am not going to lie. I do not like ROB either, the only reason I don't want him cut is because he DOES have a player base. It would be right to cut their favorite character. Especially because he got in on his own merit.

Would I miss him if he was cut? No. Not really. Do I think it will happen? Of course not.

Personally (I'm so smash obsessed, I try to talk about it with everyone. It's one of the only games I like,) I've seen pretty solid support and love for G&W. When I ask people who support G&W about R.O.B., to put it as one person put it, theyd just say "F R.O.B." Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but it's the evidence I have to work with when making predictions.

Us competitive players ask for the same sane and insane character choices for upcoming Smashes, hell, this time around most of us are satisfied with the current Brawl roster+the newcomers already announced and we won't need anyone else. We aren't some foreign group for everything. The difference between us are, casuals don't go into technical depth for Smash while competitive community does and we pick and choose what would make the game most enjoyable in a tournament setting. That being said, I reiterate, we don't demand characters for competitive aspects we just want our same childhood fantasies that everyone else wants.

In short, we care about gameplay more than characters.

Yes, we do care more about gameplay than characters. But this doesn't explain the R.O.B. fascination. (What does explain it, though, is being passionate enough to care about sentimental things like R.O.B.'s historical value,) as opposed to "just wanting to play a game as a character we'd enjoy."