Cult Appeasing Roster.
Casual/party/family appeasing roster.
Explanations at bottom.
Expecting flame.
There are several discernible flaws that prevent this hypothetical roster from even resembling anything close to a realistic prediction.
First and foremost - your preconceived notions about fan-bases. You have basically formulated this sort of black-and-white dichotomy between "hardcore competitive" and "casual" fan-bases, as if they are entirely diametrically-opposed to one another (like an insoluble combination between oil and water). Essentially, you summarily characterize the fan-bases as being entirely divided core-groups, in terms of wants and needs, without even comprehending an understanding that these so-called "competitive" and "casual" fan-base can very well easily overlap each other. Your unwarranted claims are also severely confounded when presented with these conflicts:
- What sort of criteria, which constitutes the basis of your claims, are you using to describe "casual" and "competitive" fan-bases?
- What exact sort of methodology are you using within developing your hypothesis? Asking random strangers what they specially think about certain potential characters?
You do not have to be a "casual" to support the idea of having a Mii, nor do you have to be "competitive" to support the idea of Ridley or King K. Rool. So, why do you have to construct these false dilemmas, why must you build these straw-men to knock down, in order to prove some baseless point in defining what the Super Smash Brothers series' fan-bases are?
Also take cautionary heed: If the fan-bases were truly as antithetically-antagonistic towards each other in their desires, as you imply, then surely the "casual" fan-base (as you define the term) would have never allowed Ness or Lucas entry into the games, but rather characters from "casual" games like "Waluigi". If, as you say, the "consumer base should dictate every aspect", then Sakurai will see to it that he not arbitrarily divide his fan-bases as you do, not take parts of the whole and divide them, but rather take the sum of the parts into a whole.
Onto the tour de force:
Snake stays: We don't need any more 3rd party, even if Namco is developing. Snake staying helps keep some "more serious" gamers interested in the game.
Snake is popular for a varietal array of reasons, and I don't believe many of them have to do with some sort of "seriousness" assumption of people playing as "Rated-M for Mature" characters. People will play as characters because they enjoy playing as that particular character for their distinct game-play traits and fighting styles.
Waluigi & Baby Bowser: Casual Party-Players love both Waluigi and Bowser Jr. To them, they think "Why are they both in Mario Kart, but not Smash Bros?" I'm sure there are some kids out there who go through random Waluigi phases, and I know that Bowser Jr. is a hardcore casual favorite, so both should be in. Toad is left out, as casuals might say: Toad can't fight!|
First of all, why are you, again, generalizing what particular consumers of a products want, especially when such consumers are not anywhere near as simplistically one-dimensional as you make them out to be? And from what inexplicable sources do you even collectively gather these quotes from?
Secondly, let me clarify this as crystal-clear as possible: if a potential character, like Toad, does not make it into the final product of the game, it is because Sakurai either did not find a feasible solution to a character to make them work, Sakurai's visionary roster doesn't include the character because he doesn't feel they add to anything, or that character could not be implemented as a result of time-constraints. Here, we are speaking about the former two examples, in that if Toad doesn't make it in, it's because for whatever reason or another, Sakurai doesn't see Toad as a workable character. Not because your poorly-described definition of "casual" fans say, "Toad can't fight!" You know who also technically couldn't fight in their own games? R.O.B.
Mii: Every little kid wants to be a part of their favorite game, and little kids play Smash. It means little to us more serious gamers, but Sakurai has explicitly said he isn't aiming to please us, even going as far as to call us "maniacs."
Think about this: what is the solitary purpose of the Mii? Why, of course, to be a personally-detailed customization of yourself. If the supportive fan-bases of the Mii are exuberantly calling for it's inclusion, then it is for several differentiated reasons, but perhaps the most important: to be able to play as oneself within a Super Smash Brothers game.
Also, talk about lacking contextual awareness. When Sakurai referred to the "hardcore competitive" scene as "maniacs", he was only referring to how over-zealously enthusiastic they are about their passionate hobbies. Not because they are lacking in sanity.
Tetra: Bolder guess & personal preference. I think she's the most likely Zelda Newcomer, and I think a Zelda Newcomer is more likely than, say, Shulk.
While I can finally find some agreement with your preferential roster choices, I cannot help but feel distractedly baffled as to your reasoning Shulk should even be compared to a Zelda character. Where does the comparison even warrant itself a logically reasonable explanation?
No Chrom: Conflicting niche with Marth and Ike. Ike fights for his friends. Quotes = casual love.
Of all the arguments I have heard against a character's inclusion, this is, above and beyond all, the worst argument I have ever had the misfortune of listening to. Quotes? You mean Chrom, or by extension Roy, Lucina, Robin, Lyn, and the like, are not allowed access towards inclusive entrance because... Ike says he "fights for his friends"? Because an already established character within the Super Smash Brothers series has quotes, we should just forsake all others? I can understand the first point you are suggesting (in that Chrom provides nothing else that is already provided for by Marth and Ike), but the second one... is incomprehensible. It is, in fact, ludicrous.
Anna: FE warrants a third rep, and Anna fills a niche that finishes off the "FE sword users." She's small/light/fast/flexible/etc.
As much as I would enthusiastically support the inclusion of the merchant, she is, by far-and-wide, out-prioritized by Chrom, Roy, and Robin, perhaps even Lucina.
Anna is also very-well capable of using a spear, as well.
Krystal: For the casual girls. They exist, there are many of them, and many of them love Krystal. Krystal not being playable was something many of htem hated.
Can you, at the very least, provide substantial evidence in regards to your claims? Because otherwise, what is presented without evidence can just be as easily dismissed without evidence.
Also, there was a reason Wolf was granted entry over Krystal in Super Smash Brothers Brawl - Wolf is far more crucially-important to his own series as the antagonistic rival, in a humiliating comparison to a controversial-to-her-own-series damsel-in-distress. Why would that change the second time around?
Isaac>Shulk: Popularity, potential, uniqueness, and semi-cult appeasement.
I can actually, for once, understand this particular suggestion. Yet, even then, Shulk shouldn't be disregarded as a potential choice just because of Isaac - they can co-exist just fine.
No Ness: Super bold, but I think one will get cut. Ness has veteran status, while Lucas is more recent/etc. Most casuals I've talked to think Lucas is cooler.
Garbage. Pure unadulterated, bottom-of-the-trash-can garbage. I feel sick.
Why should we cut loose the iconic mascot of their own respective series, just for the sake of keeping another character that has previously co-existed with the character in question? The bizarre equivalent would be cutting Marth in order to keep Ike, or cutting Wolf for Falco. It makes no sense whatsoever.
No R.O.B.: R.O.B. sucksssss. Nobody likes R.O.B.
Emotional argumentation. Generalizing assumptions. Logical fallacies. Cognitive biases, ranging from confirmation inclination to the false-consensus effect.
Already, you have practically guaranteed no reasonable spectator will ever listen, or even take seriously, to what you have to say in regards to R.O.B. because you have already established a personally-combative disposition against R.O.B. No attempts at arguing valid points or even presenting factual testimonial evidence. Just, "R.O.B. sucksssss. Nobody likes R.O.B." Considering the fact, not opinion but fact, that there are actually people who do prefer R.O.B. and would even go as far as to main him as a playable character and proudly display him as an avatar on their Smashboards profiles... this argument, no, I mean this generalized preconception is factually wrong, on several, if not all, levels of logic.
No Wolf: I think the Space Animal fans can take the hit. Krystal would probably be a better character in if we're trying to increase revenue and please customers. Star Fox shouldn't even have 3 reps at this point, but I feel it will retain all 3.
I have already exhaustively explained this in regard to my previous statements.
No Ridley: He's a boss. Casuals know him as a Brawl Boss.
Again, stop pretending you are extensively knowledgeable about these fan-bases, because you are only demonstrating a complete lack of understanding in regards to this, especially when given these ignorantly false examples. Look at what Ridley is - a purple flying space dragon. Already he is aesthetically pleasing. Now look at what Ridley does - flies around at high velocity, uses his sharp claws to grab enemies and drag them across walls, swings his elongated tail around, etc. Already he is feasibly a fighter. All that stands in Ridley's inclusion is Sakurai's criteria for playable character, and certainly not because "casuals" want him to maintain his current position as a boss.
Appeasing Ridley cult: "Boss Mode" has an option where the user with the Wii U Gamepad can play as the bosses, so you can play as Ridley.
Why not just have Ridley as a playable character in the first place? This also completely defeats the entire purpose of your previous statement.
Roster count is 46 + 4 transformation characters, so 50. If Mii is 3 characters for 3 sizes, then "52" characters.
I suppose the 45-50 range is within judicious limits.
Overall, this preferentially-favored roster of yours needs more astute fine-tuning in terms of its technicality, logicality, and cohesion, in order for it to become sensibly reasonable. I do desire you not to take this as an offensively-aggressive attack on all fronts of your belief systems, but rather a productive guide that may help better your roster predictions. I myself am not perfect in this regard, and neither are any of us for that matter, but in the very least we can work together as a closely-knit unit within our constructive criticisms of each other's roster predictions, and hopefully become more knowledgeable spectators as a result.
XD
