@Chrono: I agree with most of what you said, but I want to throw my two cents. I've been bad about making my post more "soapbox" like, so let's have some discussion.
Not much has really changed. The last time I made commentary though, Goroh was one of the ones leading the pack in the green category, now he is clearly falling behind the rest of that category.
Which is very weird if you ask me.
Consider this. If you are 18 now, than means you were born in 1995. You were about 6 when Melee came out and 8 when GX came out. You were also only 13 when Brawl came out. There are a lot of people who are playing and discussion Smash who never really played F-Zero and Brawl was likely their first Smash. I think the issue with it being so long since an F-Zero game is a lot of adults now barely know F-Zero and Goroh as well. I wouldn't be surprised if his support is coming from older fans and those people probably found the pool first.
Isaac:
Isaac is basically another Little Mac, but with slightly less popularity. He is basically the Marth of Golden Sun (the protagonist of the first game of the series, yet by far the most popular main protagonist overall). Like Punch-Out, Golden Sun received a new installment after Brawl's release, although it was not received as well as its GBA predecessors. I am really surprised about how much Isaac's popularity has held considering the GBA games were released a decade ago. As with Little Mac, amongst series that do not already have a playable character in Smash Bros., Isaac is one of the best choices. Camelot may have to make a new Golden Sun as their next project once they get done releasing Mario Golf for the 3DS, considering they may not have the resources to make a game for the Wii U. However, Isaac being amongst the West's most wanted characters after all these years really shows the staying power and cult following that the Golden Sun series has. One might say he is possibly competing with Shulk (another blonde-haired RPG protagonist that has a cult following), however, although Xenoblade has much accolades, it never enjoyed the sales success that the GBA Golden Sun games enjoyed. The re-release of the GBA Golden Sun games for the Virtual Console could spark even more interest in Isaac (and possibly the series overall), or at the very least help Isaac maintain the interest he already has.
Golden Sun was always popular, so this is no surprise. The issue I see with Issac is his second party status. I have a theory that they only look towards 1st party characters where Nintendo fully owns the series. If Issac doesn't get in, it may solidify this theory. Given, he's likely the only second party character with a fair shot.
Shulk:
Shulk is pretty much riding the waves of the cult following and accolades that Xenoblade has. Unlike Isaac though, much less people have played Xenoblade though (a used copy at this point is $60+), which is probably the primary reason why there is less interest for him. He is also a character from a stand alone game (though "X" may change that). However, considering that he is one of the few noteworthy "new" characters to show up since Brawl's release, Sakurai may be more lenient on him. If Shulk turns out to be a protagonist in "X" I expect his popularity to increase further, its also possible that "X"'s main protagonist (whoever that is) eats Shulk's lunch and basically causes the interest in Shulk to depreciate.
I think Shulk is fine where he is. Xenoblade is a cult hit for sure and his popularity shows that.
Waluigi:
Perhaps the most surprising character to be as high as he is. Waluigi is definitely not as important to the main series as Bowser Jr. and Toad are, but yet seems to have more fans. I think this primarily comes from Waluigi having much more of a personality than Bowser Jr. and Toad, and his overall "meme" status (see Brawl in the Family). I think overall he is probably the least likely of the four major candidates for a Mario newcomer (the other three being Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario), since his only advantage is "popularity" of which even that its only a slight leap compared to the other characters. I think if Waluigi were to have a role outside of being merely just another face on the roster to the Mario spinoffs, he would become a strong candidate for inclusion for Smash 5.
Waluigi has gotten a lot more popular over time. I don't think Brawl in the family is the sole reason. People have warmed up to the character and a lot of people want to see him in a real game. I also think, what has helped, is age. To people who are 18 today, Waluigi doesn't feel like a filler. Mario Tennis came out in 2000. If you were born in 1995, you were 5 when the game came out. To you, Waluigi seems normal. There is also the fact that he has a crazy personality. Charles Martinet seems to like him, and Sakurai seems to too. He was an assist trophy. Also, Doc was a character, so I don't think that Waluigi has never been in a main game would bother him.
Ghirahim:
Ghirahim, like Midna during pre-Brawl, has a lot of requests for Smash 4 as a result of being a major character in the most recently released home console Zelda. Skyward Sword being perhaps the most weakly received home console 3D Zelda, is probably the main reason why interest in him is not higher. There is definitely far more interest in him than any other potential Zelda newcomer, however, considering how the character (like Midna), is probably just another one-shot, Sakurai will probably skip over him, even if he does end up using Skyward Sword as the basis for the designs for Link and Zelda. However, if Zelda does end up getting a newcomer, he is amongst the top candidates to be selected. However, I think like with Midna, interest in him will depreciate once we see the next home console Zelda.
One thing to point out is that Zelda had a lot more competition during Brawl. No one could agree on what character they wanted. This time, everyone seems to agree on Ghirahim. I take a wait and see position on this character. He is a one shot, but we're not sure how much of an issue it is. We assume this based on Brawl, but this everyone agree on a Zelda character. I think it's fair to say that one shot characters wont happen if he doesn't get in.
Pac-Man
Pac-Man is at the top of the list for the drop after Bowser Jr. Pac-Man being at the top is primarily due to him hailing from possibly the most iconic arcade game next to Donkey Kong, as well as Namco developing Smash 4. That Pac-Man is as low as he is shows how little interest there is to add another third-party newcomer outside of Mega Man. I do think though there is a good chance we will get a Namco character in Smash 4 (possibly even more than one) and Pac-Man is one of the top candidates for that. I think some sort of Namco character (of which the top candidates would be Pac-Man or a Tales character) is amongst the top candidates for a newcomer at the E3 2013 Smash 4 unveil.
I disagree. If anything, there is very little chance for a Namco character. They have already confirmed that Sakurai has full control and that Namco developers have little say. I believe the director of Tales was asking if people could back a Tales character so they could get in. If he can't just ask Sakurai, then I think it's doubtful. There is also the issue no one in the company wants their character in, or that they have a lack of interest. Sakurai has also said that he wont add characters willy nilly. I don't think a Namco character will happen. People assume there will be because Namco is making it. However, consider A) that there was no Game Arts character in Smash and B)that there were only 2 third party characters when it was agreed that 3 would happen.
Zoroark:
Zoroark is probably the most iconic Pokemon from the Black/White generation, however, he never caught on like Lucario did (probably due to being seen as too much of a retread of him), this even though Black/White was received better than Diamond/Pearl. However, Zoroark being this high in the poll, is impressive considering the announcement of Pokemon X/Y and announcement of Mewtwo's return in the latest Pokemon movie. However, I think while he is still plausible for Smash 4, he may have missed his chance.
I agree. Didn't you say interest in Japan has dropped off for him.
Toad:
I am really surprised that Toad is not higher than he is. He is a very iconic Mario character and has been with the Super Mario franchise since the very beginning. He is the only character left at this point that has been playable in the Mario platformers not yet playable in Smash Bros. I think the primary reason for why Toad is not the most wanted Mario newcomer despite his iconic status and Mario series seniority is due to being seen as "bland" and already being involved for one of Peach's special moves for two games going on now. I think though interest in Toad has been massively helped by the New Super Mario Bros. games as now I have seen far more interest in him as a playable character than I have ever seen for any other Smash Bros. game.
People like him, but it may not translate into Smash. Also, there are younger players who don't see him as important (maybe)
Samurai Goroh:
Samurai Goroh is definitely by far the preferred choice for a second F-Zerro character, however, there is definitely less interest for him than any other character in this poll outside of the three bottom tier characters. Like with Krystal, I think one of primary culprits is his last game appearance having been released so long ago (in Goroh's case being late 2004). I think Goroh could be doing a lot better even in this environment (especially when looking at characters like Isaac), considering how depreciated the pool of potential newcomers are this time around.
Again, I think age plays a roll in it.
I'm confident in him. Sakurai thought he was important enough to be an assist trophy. There is also latent demand for an F-Zero character.
Mona:
While I think Mona is probably the most wanted possible Wario newcomer, I think its basically akin to being the tallest ******. There is just little interest in there being a Wario newcomer despite the Wario series being bigger than many of the series in Smash Bros. I think if Sakurai for some reason skips on Palutena, Mona would be one of his top picks for a female newcomer.
That's kind of funny.
The only reason why Krystal was so highly revered was because of her staff and general spite towards clones. Even back in the days people were skeptical of her, and for good reason too. It's not like she was even that attractive to begin with.
One thing that Help Krystal was the leak. Basically, there was a "leak" on a voice actor's page. She mentioned she was doing the voice of ZSS, Knuckle Joe, and Krystal. The character was talked about at the time, so it likely threw her into overdrive as people assumed she would be in. Basically, when she wasn't in, the bubble burst.