Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Bill Nye]

Wolf: 90%
My only concern is the fact that Ryu and Roy get leaked before him.

Want: 100%
I don't want to live in a world where two characters, who have been in only one Japan-only game each, come before the most suave villain in gaming. I just hope they don't giving him a horrific voice... Looks at Fox...

Nominations:
Agnes Oblige x 2
Ridley x 3

 

[edsett]

Wolf
Chance: 90%
He doesn't have anything major against him. But it's strange that Roy is back before Wolf.

Want: 60%
Wolf and Leon are my favorite Star Fox characters and I really liked Wolf in Brawl. He shouldn't have been cut.

Shovel Knight Prediction: 10% (Guarantee to be overrated)

 

[aldelaro5]

Wolf:
Chance: 75%
+ Popular
+ Veteran
~+ New game coming out soon (relevance)
+/- We have no idea why he wasn't in Smash 4--and if there was a problem, we don't know if it's been resolved

Want: 90%


Prediction:
Shovel Knight
7%

Nomination:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]


I'm not saying this to be mean or anything, but I believe you are using the incorrect psychological term here. The "bystander effect" occurs when nobody is willing to help a victim due to the belief that others will rescue him/her. The better term to use here is the "diffusion of responsibility". This refers to when people in a group slacken their efforts because they believe that other members of said group "have them covered". People might be so certain of Wolf's inclusion, that they do little to support him. They believe that other people have already secured his inclusion. Now, these terms are very similar and there are areas of overlap between them, but the reason why I wouldn't describe it as the "bystander effect" is simply because Wolf is not really a victim of any sorts.

This is so interesting, I'm willing you teach me more

I like to get how people could see supports, it helps me in the long run

 

[Scamper52596]

Wolf
Chance: 90%
The stars seem to be aligning for this guy. Cut veterans seemingly taking priority via DLC, a new Star Fox game coming out in the near future, fan demand. He basically has it all. I would be very surprised if Sakurai didn't choose to make Wolf DLC. My guess as to why Lucas was shown off first along with Wolf not being found in the code is probably because they're planning to release Wolf alongside the new Star Fox game whenever it hits store shelves. I'll give Star Fox's rival a solid 90%.
Can't let myself do that overused joke - oh wait...

Want: 70%
I never really used him in Brawl, but I'm a fan of seeing people happy when their favorite characters show up. I've seen a lot of Wolf supporters on this forum who are really hoping he'll make a grand return, so I hope he comes back just for them. I also think he more than deserves to be playable again as Star Fox could use at least one more representative, especially with the new Star Fox game coming out.

Prediction - Shovel Knight: 5.5%

Nominations:
x4 Tetra
x1 Toon Zelda

 

[ES. Dinah]

Wolf

Chances: 90%

Wolf has a lot going for him with Roy coming back. I know so many people want him back so he is likely guaranteed at this point. He also has a fanbase that is quite huge.

Want: 10%

I would much rather prefer Krystal, honestly but Wolf has mire chance.

Nominations: KOS-MOS x5 for life.

 

[FooltheFlames]

Chance 65% Just becuz Lucas came back, doesnt mean ALL the characters are coming back. And what if they go for Crystal instead? And that thing about Roy and Ryu, that stuff is unconfirmed as of yet. Just becuz the sound files are there and exist, doesnt mean Roy and Ryu are guaranteed (EX: unfinished data on Roy, Mewtwo, Dixie Kong, Plusle & Minun, etc. was found in Brawl and they were never added later.) But his chances still seem better than most

Want 45% His forward smash was fun to spam against newbs online, I really enjoyed his, "What's the matter, scared!?" taunt. I dont find the Star Fox characters that fun or rewarding to play overall, but I did enjoy using Wolf over the other two. If they can fix his up-B that would be nice. And it would make alot of people happy for him to return as well~

Shovel Knight prediction: 49%

Nominations: Ashley, Lip, Viridi, Paper Mario, & Ryu Hayabusa

 

[AlphaSSB]

WOLF​

Chance: 90%
- Wolf is a fan favorite that a lot of people want back. With Lucas returning, his chances are more than ever. It just seems unfair for Lucas to get in without Wolf. He was the only unique Star Fox rep, with Falco being a semi-clone of Fox, wheras Lucas was a semi-clone (Don't get me wrong, I love Lucas, but I'm just making a point). Plus, Star Fox is more than likely going to be shown at E3, and revealing either Wolf or Krystal (Hopefully both!) to ramp up hype would work so much in Nintendo's favor. I really, really, REALLY wish I could put his chances at 100%, but Sakurai is an insane person, and nothing is guarunteed. Nothing pisses me off more than people going against voting for him because they feel that "He's practially shoed-in". Well, here's some news:

Want: Infinity. Can we use infinity? @ colder_than_ice you should use infinity. Infinity and 100% for me.
- Wolf. My main in Brawl, my main in Project M, hell, even in Star Fox: Assault and Star Fox: Command you'd see me playing as him. Wolf O'Donnell is one of my all-time favorite characters in videogames, and it hurts to look at the Smash 4 roster and not see him. A purple-grey Fox skin and a few custom moves does not cut it for me, and neither should it for you. I'd love to see both Wolf and Krystal get revealed together at E3, but if I could only chose one, I'd have to go with the veteran.

Prediction: Shovel Knight - 15% Chance/65% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Sceptile - x5
- Best starter ever, and he'd bring balance to the roster with having Charizard (Gen 1) and Greninja (Gen 6). With Lucario already from Gen 4, a Gen 3 rep would be perfect because numbers. 1+3+6 = The Illluminati, and their triangle is green. Like Sceptile.

 

[Seanp12]

Hey @ PK_Wonder , I think you missed when I posted my bonus nominations. It was the Star Fox DLC concept x5.

Is it better just to save it for the next day, or what? I've lurked for a while, but I'm still not entirely familiar with how things go on around here.

 

[RobinOnDrugs]

Wolf

Chance: 90% - Given that Lucas had been revealed despite some of his specials being given to Ness as custom moves, it is very likely that Wolf will make an appearance in the future as a downloadable character. I believe he'll either be revealed at E3 during discussion about Star Fox U or in a Direct in the future.

Want: 100% - Even though I rarely played him in Brawl, it surprised me that he was cut from the Sm4sh roster. Despite sharing similar specials with Fox and Falco, Wolf had a unique moveset, along with arguably some of the best taunts in the game. I'd like to see him as the next DLC character announced if Roy and Ryu aren't announced first. Plus I already made a vow to download any DLC character that gets released anyway for the sake of completion.

My nominations are as follows:
1x Concept: New Palutena's Guidances
1x Concept: DLC is 6+ characters
3x Concept: DLC alts for characters

 

[Kalimdori]

And that thing about Roy and Ryu, that stuff is unconfirmed as of yet. Just becuz the sound files are there and exist, doesnt mean Roy and Ryu are guaranteed (EX: unfinished data on Roy, Mewtwo, Dixie Kong, Plusle & Minun, etc. was found in Brawl and they were never added later.) But his chances still seem better than most

Those situations aren't even remotely comparable. Roy/Mewtwo/Dixie in Brawl was unfinished data that was scrapped. Ryu and Roy's sound files were data that was PATCHED into the game, I.E. added to the game built post release.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Wolf

Chance: 95%
Wolf is easily the most requested and most popular cut veteran that everyone wants back. I still think we should keep voting for him in the ballot until he's confirmed. In terms of Sakurai's criteria for including characters, Wolf is good. Series getting a new game, he's a veteran, he already has 3 renditions of his theme in the game, and he's a villain/antihero.

Want 100%
I really don't think I need to go into too much detail on this one.

Nominations:
BB bandit trio X5

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Wolf

Chance: 95%
Wolf is easily the most requested and most popular cut veteran that everyone wants back. I still think we should keep voting for him in the ballot until he's confirmed. In terms of Sakurai's criteria for including characters, Wolf is good. Series getting a new game, he's a veteran, he already has 3 renditions of his theme in the game, and he's a villain/antihero.

Want 100%
I really don't think I need to go into too much detail on this one.

Nominations:
BB bandit trio X5

was wonder when you would show show up

 

[Warlock*G]

So I was looking at the list, thinking I'd nominate either Jill Valentine or Bob the Killer Goldfish next, and then I saw this:
Popeye (Popeye) x5

Rules
​

1. Characters must originate from a video game[...]

'the hell is Popeye doing there? He obviously didn't originate from a video game.

 

[themasterofcircuits]

Wolf! Finally!

Chances: 95%
I know Wolf DLC is gonna happen at some point, it's just at matter of when. E3? A future direct? Who knows? I just have a gut feeling since Mewtwo and Lucas got to come back, Wolf will too. It just wouldn't be right.

Want:
lim x/(x^2-1)
x->1+
Okay, I'm a nerd. The answer is infinity xD

Wolf was my main in Brawl/PM and he's my favorite Nintendo villain. I was just playing PM with some friends yesterday and I was reminded of just how much fun he was to play. I really do miss him and it was ridiculous he was cut in Smash 4, so I've been fighting to get him back since I learned he was cut. I miss him being on the roster and I have high hopes that he'll come back as DLC in the future.

Nominations:
Professor Layton x3
Phoenix Wright x2

 

[TheDarkKnightNoivern]

Wolf
Chance: 99.99%
Lucas, Ryu and Roy are in... C'mon now

Want: Look left

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Wolf
Chance: 100%
Very likely to see him again as DLC now that Lucas showed up. Would be good to promote the new Star Fox game too.

Want: 100%
Wolf is awesome. Always wanted him since the Melee intro and was so happy to get that wish come true in Brawl. I have high hopes for him to come back and I know he will.

Shovel Knight: 20%
Even though he has gotten popular for some time now I don't believe he'd have a chance against other characters. Would fit in well but just don't see him making the cut. He'll most likely make an appearance later on but only if he continues to have that same momentum he has now. Wouldn't mind seeing him in the game though. As always rooting for the Shovel Knight fans

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5
Have to go with him all the way! I feel like I'm the only one going for him lol.

 

[colder_than_ice]

So I was looking at the list, thinking I'd nominate either Jill Valentine or Bob the Killer Goldfish next, and then I saw this:
Popeye (Popeye) x5



'the hell is Popeye doing there? He obviously didn't originate from a video game.

Just read PK_Wonder's post on page 35. He's in charge of the nominations list and he just explained his reasoning for why he wanted to keep Popeye on it. Regardless, we'll remove Popeye if there's enough opposition.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Hey @ PK_Wonder , I think you missed when I posted my bonus nominations. It was the Star Fox DLC concept x5.

Is it better just to save it for the next day, or what? I've lurked for a while, but I'm still not entirely familiar with how things go on around here.

I usually split up the nomination tallying and make an update a few times a day instead of committing to it all at once. I signify that I've counted nominations by liking the post. If you make a change or addition after I've liked it, the best way to do so is to either make a new post, or if you have extra noms, like you said, you can save it for the next day. Whatever is more convenient for you.

So I was looking at the list, thinking I'd nominate either Jill Valentine or Bob the Killer Goldfish next, and then I saw this:
Popeye (Popeye) x5

'the hell is Popeye doing there? He obviously didn't originate from a video game.

I mentioned this earlier today, and am waiting for thoughts on the matter. Would you like to change your nominations for today?

 

[Warlock*G]

I usually split up the nomination tallying and make an update a few times a day instead of committing to it all at once. I signify that I've counted nominations by liking the post. If you make a change or addition after I've liked it, the best way to do so is to either make a new post, or if you have extra noms, like you said, you can save it for the next day. Whatever is more convenient for you.



I mentioned this earlier today, and am waiting for thoughts on the matter. Would you like to change your nominations for today?

No, thank you.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Wolf - 99%

Lucas came back, Roy is coming back, I see no reason why they'd decide to avoid bringing Wolf back too.

Want - 100%

I like all of the Starfox cast that's been playable in Smash thus far, Wolf is no exception.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Senselessbreak]

So I was looking at the list, thinking I'd nominate either Jill Valentine or Bob the Killer Goldfish next, and then I saw this:
Popeye (Popeye) x5


'the hell is Popeye doing there? He obviously didn't originate from a video game.

To be fair, didn't Nintendo own the publishing rights to Popeye in the 80s? Not sure if the made the NES/arcade game....but if they did that at least gives Popeye some connection to Nintendo......although non video games characters should stay far gar away from smash!!

 

[Erimir]

Wolf

He's almost in the exact same situation as Lucas was before his announced return. He has a trophy, he's a veteran, he's a semi-clone, he's wanted by the community, he's not a lot of work to remake.

The main differences are that

1. There's already Falco who is also a semi-clone of Fox. Falco is more similar to Fox than Wolf is, actually. Wolf has quite similar specials, but almost no other moves in common with Fox, so he's more comparable to Luigi than even to Falco. That is, It's more like bringing back Luigi than Dr. Mario. Ness is the only Earthbound character aside from Lucas, and again, Lucas mainly just shares the specials.

2. Star Fox is a bigger series than Earthbound.

3. Star Fox is getting a new game soon, Earthbound is not.

4. My impression is that Sakurai is a bigger fan of Earthbound than Star Fox.

5. Krystal might be competition for Wolf? I don't think this is a big factor.

All in all, I would've said that Wolf's and Lucas's chances were very similar before, and knowing there will be several more DLC characters, Wolf seems very, very likely.

Compare to the other remaining veterans...

1. Pichu - very clonish, irrelevant, not particularly wanted, series already has large roster
2. Roy - not very relevant anymore, was very clonish, but fan favorite. Series already has a large roster for its size
3. Young Link - superseded by Toon Link, not wanted
4. Pokemon Trainer - fundamental mechanic removed
5 & 6. Ivysaur & Squirtle - not as popular independently, don't make as much sense without being the starter trio, series already has a large roster
7. Snake - 3rd-party with a shaky relationship

It seems Roy is coming back, but I would've pegged Wolf as the highest likelihood veteran along with Lucas after Mewtwo's announcement. He doesn't have any glaring flaws. Honestly, I'll be annoyed if Roy comes back and not Wolf, given that we already have three sword-using FE characters and I didn't think FE needed four characters in the first place. Especially if he's still a clone of Marth!

Wolf chances: 85%
Wolf want: 95%
Wolf was one of my favorites to play as in Brawl. While I'd prefer if both he and Falco were even more separated from Fox, realistically, he's really not that clonish. I don't really have any reason not to want him to come back, other than I might like some other characters a little bit more (if it was any of the ones in my signature vs. Wolf...).

Shovel Knight Prediction:
chance - 42%
I think it's going to be higher than warranted.
want - 73%
But people would be pretty happy with it. At least Americans would be. If we get some of the other characters I want as well, I'd certainly be cool with it.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

I think he'd be so cool, yet, so many obstacles in his way...

 

[Warlock*G]

To be fair, didn't Nintendo own the publishing rights to Popeye in the 80s? Not sure if the made the NES/arcade game....but if they did that at least gives Popeye some connection to Nintendo......although non video games characters should stay far gar away from smash!!

I was merely referring to the rule which states that a character must originate from a videogame to be nominated. Popeye originated (as most people would know) from comics, no matter if if Nintendo owned some publishing rights to Popeye in the 80s.

That's it.

 

[Serell]

Ok, let's see if I do this right!

Wolf prediction: 80%, because you never know with Sakurai. With the recent introduction of bringing back vets dlc, only Wolf and Roy (and possibly Ice Climbers) are veterans that make sense to bring back.

Wolf want: 70%. I don't believe Sakurai is going to want one series getting more than one dlc character, so if I had to choose between Wolf and Krystal, I'd have to choose Krystal. Wolf was a sad clone of Fox in Brawl, and while he does have potential for a new moveset, Krystal could have a much more unique moveset with her staff.

Shovel Knight prediction: 0 (ZERO) %. I get that Shovel Knight is awesome, I've played his game, he's great, he's a great indie. But he has ABSOLUTELY NO HISTORY WITH NINTENDO. 3rd party characters have to have a good history with Nintedno. There are much more deserving indie reps that have a history with Nintendo, like Shantae.

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Deleted member]

Shovel Knight prediction: 0 (ZERO) %. I get that Shovel Knight is awesome, I've played his game, he's great, he's a great indie. But he has ABSOLUTELY NO HISTORY WITH NINTENDO. 3rd party characters have to have a good history with Nintedno. There are much more deserving indie reps that have a history with Nintendo, like Shantae.

You do realize that Shovel Knight's game originated Wii U, 3DS, and PC, right? He has HISTORY WITH NINTENDO.

 

[Erimir]

Shovel Knight prediction: 0 (ZERO) %. I get that Shovel Knight is awesome, I've played his game, he's great, he's a great indie. But he has ABSOLUTELY NO HISTORY WITH NINTENDO.

You do realize that Shovel Knight's game originated Wii U, 3DS, and PC, right? He has HISTORY WITH NINTENDO.

More importantly, you're just predicting what other people will say. And I'm quite sure that people will not vote all 0%, so that prediction is definitely going to be wrong.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Wolf wasN'T a sad clone of Fox in Brawl,

 

[Senselessbreak]

You do realize that Shovel Knight's game originated Wii U, 3DS, and PC, right? He has HISTORY WITH NINTENDO.

But hes also on PC, playstation and xbox with exclusive content. I'm going to have fun debating this tomorrow because whether hes on a nintendo platform or not, he is barely a year old, and barely notable to any portion of Nintendos History.

Pacman: Most well known video game character next to Mario. Appeared in Mario Kart games, has a game published and developed by Miyamoto. 30 + years old

Sonic: Biggest Nintendo rival ever. One of the biggest mascots ever, and has had several crossovers already, such as the olympics game titles, and the DLC for lost world. 20+ years old

Megaman: Iconic on the NES, has many games exclusive to Nintendo platforms. 20 + years of history.

Ryu: Biggest fighting game star ever. SF2 was one of the best selling games on SNES. 20 + years of history.

Shovel Knight: Has one game that is multiplat. ~ 1 year old. Barely recognizable outside of the indie community. Only popular in polls because of omni artsys render.

 

[Serell]

You do realize that Shovel Knight's game originated Wii U, 3DS, and PC, right? He has HISTORY WITH NINTENDO.

He has had one game. That game out on Wii U, 3DS, and PC. That's not exactly history. He is just as well known on the PC than he is on the Wii U and 3DS. This is my prediction. I think he has no chance. I don't think Sakurai will think about him for more than a second.

 

[themasterofcircuits]

Wolf was a sad clone of Fox in Brawl, and while he does have potential for a new moveset, Krystal could have a much more unique moveset with her staff.

While I do agree with the latter, the former just annoys me to all end. Is Luigi a clone of Mario? No. Is Ike a clone of Marth? No. Wolf is not a clone of Fox. I have been playing both of them for quite a while and they have very different movesets. Yes, their specials are similar, but other than that they are two completely different characters.

I must say, if you're looking for a unique SF character, Bill Grey would be even better than Krystal imo. His potential is through the roof!

 

[Delzethin]

Those situations aren't even remotely comparable. Roy/Mewtwo/Dixie in Brawl was unfinished data that was scrapped. Ryu and Roy's sound files were data that was PATCHED into the game, I.E. added to the game built post release.

But there's a bigger question: How do we know those sound files are for sure for distinct characters? Merely having data for victory themes leaves some ambiguity to the nature of how they'll be used...

 

[colder_than_ice]

Wolf
Chance: 80% - He's definitely the leader of the pack. He's got almost everything going for him that Lucas and Roy had, and he might just be in the new Star Fox game.
Want: 65% - I'd like to see him back even if I never use him.

Shovel Knight prediction: 6%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[MainJPW]

Wolf
Chance: 80% - He's definitely the leader of the pack. He's got almost everything going for him that Lucas and Roy had, and he might just be in the new Star Fox game.

He is in the new game though, confirmed awhile back.

 

[themasterofcircuits]

He is in the new game though, confirmed awhile back.

Not only that, he will also have his own exclusive mode: VS Wolf. Who knows, he may even become the main antagonist of the game? Or maybe he'll play an even larger role than in the past. If he does, his chances will skyrocket even further.

 

[A Distant Demon]

But there's a bigger question: How do we know those sound files are for sure for distinct characters? Merely having data for victory themes leaves some ambiguity to the nature of how they'll be used...

. . .what?
they are named ryu and roy and are with the other victory tune files.

What else could they possibly be used for

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Not only that, he will also have his own exclusive mode: VS Wolf. Who knows, he may even become the main antagonist of the game? Or maybe he'll play an even larger role than in the past. If he does, his chances will skyrocket even further.

source?

 

[Kalimdori]

. . .what?
they are named ryu and roy and are with the other victory tune files.

What else could they possibly be used for

AT's and bosses getting victory themes and animations confirmed!

Seriously though, I would love it so much if Ridley could actually win a match in Pyrosphere

 

[Senselessbreak]

source?

Edit: Wrong thread. This one has more info

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1019593

But there's a bigger question: How do we know those sound files are for sure for distinct characters? Merely having data for victory themes leaves some ambiguity to the nature of how they'll be used...

Only playable fighters have ever had victory themes. Plus each player fighter has a dedicated number assigned to their theme song. Both Roy and Ryu got assigned numbers along with Lucas and Mewtwo.

 

[themasterofcircuits]

source?

I finally found it!

Here you go:

http://kotaku.com/we-played-shigeru-miyamotos-new-star-fox-game-1588712327

 

[colder_than_ice]

WOLF
CHANCE: 93.04%
WANT: 76.12%​

One word people: Domination.
Next up we're rating Shovel Knight and you can predict what score fellow Indie game star Quote will get tomorrow.