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The Smash Ballot was never a poll but merely a soap box for the fans to stand on.
As long as one really good idea makes it to Sakurai, he can make the decision to add that character regardless of normal "criteria." He has previously expressed interest in Panel de Pon by calling it a masterpiece and including many references ranging from the Garbage Block in Kirby's Stone ability, an item in the form of Lip's own weapon, and a remixed version of her own theme. He has stated that characters (specifically Takamaru) did not make it in due to obscurity/lack of impact in the west, but there are clearly fans of said characters here. Even if just a handful of us make suggestions, it only takes one push to send the ball rolling.
Almost all of the percentages so far are below ten, it feels ironic as some of these same people (not pointing any fingers) support characters who have probably the same if not less of a chance than Lip does, and I doubt they gave them low scores.
It would come off as biased (rightfully so) of me to give Lip a high score, but I think almost any Nintendo character is nothing more than a coin toss away from getting in thanks to the ballot, and Smash is no stranger to obscure characters anyway.
Chance: 50%
It may seem a bit generous, but I think it'll only take one convincing vote to sway Sakurai's opinion on a (Nintendo) character.
Want: 90%
I'd like to just put 100%, but she's nowhere near my top three, and she's still below K. Rool as well on my personal wishlist.
Lip
Chance: Mmm... 65%. It's a bit mixed. On one hand, she's a great character with awesome moveset potential (check the Lip thread for my compilation moveset!) and she's seen a bit of an upswing in popularity lately. On top of that, there's really no better place for her to make her triumphant return than Smash Bros.! On the other, she's not as widely known as some other characters and that hurts her chances some.
I was so sure Phoenix Right was going to be featured on the top 10 of want when I originally saw those 90%+ scores... guess he suffered from the arrival of low score voters ahah.
Lip chances: 1.85%
She has some decent amount of support... but she's very obscure and from a Japan only game series. Not the kind of character I'd see Nintendo consider for DLC; she'd make much more sense as a character from the base game. Not much else to say actually.
Lip want: 8%
Eh, not interested. I'd rather see her being an Assist Trophy, and I'd much rather have a the puzzle game representative Smash Bros. truly deserves, a Tetrimino
Simon Belmont prediction: 10.33%
I went back to the original RTC thread to see the chances score he did, which was 9.18%, and I'm expecting his DLC edition score to be higher. Snake is gone (not saying he can't come back) and the no more than one character per third-party company rule seems to have been broken, which will definitely help him. Plus he's not going to score lower than Shantae, right? Lol, my prediction paragraph is longer than both my chances and want ones.
Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5
Lip
Chance: 12%
- Very much like Takamaru, Lip is a Japanese only character, having missed her opportunity to debut in America through Captain Rainbow. These 3 characters themselves are unfortunate in America because of this. Although her item has been there for a total of 3 games now, its strange to not find a trophy for her. The only way others might know about her is if they were truly curious to know who the beholder of her stick really is, much like I was. Unlike Takamaru and Captain Rainbow though, she is not all that covered (not talking about the skirt) like them in Smash 4.
Want: 60%
- I support Lip, and I'm sure she could be quite the interesting pixie, but she definitely isn't on the top of my list. Maybe one day she will see the light of day in Smash.
Lip Chances
1.25% She's on the radar for having decent support in past years, although she's a rather uncommon request now, and certainly not requested outside of Smash fan sites. She isn't even that requested among Japanese-exclusive characters, which is by itself an extreme hurdle. She has no foreseeable future, but doesn't have the benefit of being retro. She's just in an all-around panel di lemma.
Want - 25% I support a puzzle-based moveset completely. (y)
Sakurai did call Panel De Pon a masterpiece, but I don't think she has a trophy at all in Smash 4 (much like Snake and RYU) and her game never released overseas.
Want: 56%
Who doesn't want a sassy puzzle master in the game? (Except for Dr. Mario.
Mik
chance 7%
i honestly dont see any retro happening because none of them are actually popular unfortunately.
Want abstain
all i know about her is that she is in a puzzle game. I see very little if any moveset potential there but i wont lower the want score from my own ignorance
Prediction 3.4%
Noms
2 viridi
2 roy has awakening attire as default
1 4th mii class
The Smash Ballot was never a poll but merely a soap box for the fans to stand on.
As long as one really good idea makes it to Sakurai, he can make the decision to add that character regardless of normal "criteria." He has previously expressed interest in Panel de Pon by calling it a masterpiece and including many references ranging from the Garbage Block in Kirby's Stone ability, an item in the form of Lip's own weapon, and a remixed version of her own theme. He has stated that characters (specifically Takamaru) did not make it in due to obscurity/lack of impact in the west, but there are clearly fans of said characters here. Even if just a handful of us make suggestions, it only takes one push to send the ball rolling.
Almost all of the percentages so far are below ten, it feels ironic as some of these same people (not pointing any fingers) support characters who have probably the same if not less of a chance than Lip does, and I doubt they gave them low scores.
It would come off as biased (rightfully so) of me to give Lip a high score, but I think almost any Nintendo character is nothing more than a coin toss away from getting in thanks to the ballot, and Smash is no stranger to obscure characters anyway. Chance: 50%
It may seem a bit generous, but I think it'll only take one convincing vote to sway Sakurai's opinion on a (Nintendo) character. Want: 90%
I'd like to just put 100%, but she's nowhere near my top three, and she's still below K. Rool as well on my personal wishlist.
I agree that 50% in generous. At the same time, realistically, Lip's got a greater chance than an Indie character since at least she's Nintendo, and has stuff in the game already, so Sakurai's definitely aware of the character already. I would've never found out about Lip had it not been for Lip's Stick in Melee.
But yeah, Lip's definitely not in a great position overall. I'd argue she's decent, certainly better than almost all third-parties, but not great by any means.
Lip
Chance: 18%
There are already a few references to her in the games (most notably Lip's Stick). Doesn't seem to have much support though (don't know about Japan though).
Want: abstain
Prediction for Simon Belmont: 6.27%
Nominations:
Anna (Fire Emblem) x3
Professor Layton x2
By the way, 2015 is Panel de Pon's twentieth anniversary. Lip (Panel de Pon)
Chance:10%
Lip...is a hard character to think of. Actually, all regional-only characters are hard. (The only easy regional-only characters are third-parties, which I will just give a 1% and throw them out the window) The first thing that will put her above the rest is that Panel de Pon is already a franchise, where most Japanese-only franchises are one-offs. The fact that Sakurai actually recognizes her and called PdP a masterpiece is a point too. A new PdP to go alongside her would be easy to cook up as well, 2D puzzle games should be relatively cheap and quick to make, heck they're already milking the heck out of the Pushmo franchise. And, she's a female. A female protagonist at that. Currently the only characters that fill that genre is Samus, all other female protagonists are from spin-offs or just part of a group of protagonists and not a sole true protagonist. It'll really help with the female representation.
But that is all I'm going to give her. If you just read the above she'll sound nice. But when you think about it carefully, an anim-esque chibi female character that comes from an obscure game only in Japan, isn't really a great idea. It's a good idea, but she clearly does not go alongside the rank of K.Rool or Isaac, and we're still not sure how many DLC characters we are going to get. Also, despite 10% being pretty low, this is actually the highest I'll ever give her. 2015 is Panel de Pon's twentieth anniversary, and is probably the best chance we'll ever get a sequel. Yeah Nintendo never does an anniversary properly, but I honestly think this is our last chance. If we don't get a PdP game this year, I will consider the PdP franchise unofficially dead and drop her chances to a 2%.
Hopefully I'm wrong.
Want:99%
Lip fills my demands for a character so badly it hurts that I have to give her such a low score. Puzzle representation, female representation, protagonist representation, children representation, Yokoi representation, moveset potential, catchy music, new franchise representation, Japanese-only getting a global debut, sequel consideration to an awfully addicting game, uuuuuuugghhhh. I want her so badly. The only reason I'm not giving her a 100% is because I want Ray a tiny bit more. But she's still my number-two most wanted newcomer.
Oh yeah, Lip amiibo=promised sucess.
Predictions:Simon Belmont 9%
Even with Ryu nearly confirmed and opening the gates for second third-parties, I still think Snake's going to be a pain in his behind.
Chance: 2%
DLC needs to be, above all else, something that will sell. Nintendo has made a point of not allowing Lip in the West, and it's unlikely that Intelligent Systems is developing a Panel de Pon game that needs advertising. If she were to have been in Smash 4, she would've had to have been in the initial roster.
Want: 100%
Would represent a notable franchise from an underrepresented genre that could really do with another entry. Could also have any of several interesting gameplay gimmicks if Sakurai willed it. When's Panel de Pon: Uprising?
Panel De Pon (Puzzle League) has been in such a long-time dormancy, possibly becoming ignored for it's 20nth Anniversary this year due I.S focusing of Fire Emblem's Anniversary plans instead. This seriously puts Lip into a position where Sakurai is once again forced into expectations to make an IP marketable again (and also be expected to produce games for it), something he wouldn't wish to be involved with since leaving Kid Icarus to walk on it's own feet after Uprising. Finally, I.S and Nintendo itself has found more profitable puzzlers to sell, with likes of Pushmo and Pokemon Shuffle, while Dr.Mario is still their designated marketing mascot to Nintendo's puzzler lineup.
There's of course, the fanbase, which I based my rating on: while quite active around here, it clearly pales in likes of K.Rool's, Isaac's and other more widely known characters' supports. Another thing hurting her is Smash possibly having founded it's references to PdP as the finished way to represent the series: on top of this, one would remember how Sakurai brushed of Takamaru, even more well-known and overseas-cameoing retro fan favorite as "too unknown" to be included in Sm4sh, showing that he has quite high bars for Japan-only characters to be eligible in the roster.
However, it's clear that PdP is one of the more majorly represented series in Smash-games, with an item and little reference in Sakurai's own creation, no less. However, I do think that PdP being attested as a "masterpiece" by Sakurai's words has become far outdated, as we haven't heard about his opinion to the series since. But it might still be that PdP has some special place in his line-up of fave Nintendo-games.
Right now, the only way Lip can gain more chance is to have her fans try to vote for her through the Ballot and also include interest to the western market to at least aid in the potential revival of the series. While I doubt it due I.S having made new and more well-marketed IPs, it never hurts to try. But it's up to the fans' efforts solely now.
Want: 98%
Obviously still one of my more wanted newcomers to Smash Bros, for she'd fit in to world of Smash perfectly, has plenty things already there to make her presentable and her trickery-based, cute zoning moveset as good as it can be if fans are any indication, and her appeal is just through the roof, for if she has so many fans liking her this much right now, imagine just her exposure to even wider market! She'd definitely become a massive fan-favorite to many people.
Right now however, she is suffering from case of "Not Gonna Happen"-label I put on her and plenty other chars I wanted back in speculation-era since Starfy, Saki and much others becoming deconfirmed, possibly due their obscurity and Japan-only status. It makes me quite happy that she still has quite active popularity around here, and I quite hope the efforts of such sweet fans will pay off one day... perhaps soon.
Chance - 10.5%: Yeaaaaah, if we're talking Ballot consideration, Lip's chances were already slim before the Ballot was announced. Lip's support base is pretty niche-dedicated to distant (as in, people just finding out who she is and padding out their dream rosters with her.) Her fans are certainly noticeable, but they are swathed away by the more popular picks that are likely swamping the Ballot.
At best, she's a super obscure retro character who's remained largely forgotten with her series, similar to Takamaru or Prince Sable. And both of them even appeared as Assist Trophies. Not sure why Lip didn't at least pass this offer up. Especially, since she appears in Captain Rainbow along with Takamaru. Really odd we've never had a trophy of her either. Don't get me started with stickers!
Fortunately for Lip, Sakurai seems to have her on radar with laser-thin accuracy, given the Lip's Stick item being a staple battering item with its own status ailment since Melee, Kirby's Stone transformation into the Garbage Block, and a remix of her theme in Brawl. Sakurai has allegedly likened the game to a masterpiece, so her familiarity means she's probably closer to being realized as a Smash character than most people think. That, or Sakurai acknowledges that many people wouldn't be to psyched playing as her, as if there was some sort of flagrant disqualifier in her way. Almost as if she's a fantasy character for Sakurai to imagine. Trust me, I have my share of those.
Maybe by Smash 5, we'll see her take on the ever-so venerated retro spot. But until then, she really needs to be pushed much stronger than she was since Brawl.
Want - 5.7%: I was really close to putting Lip as my first Indifference abstain. But she's been in the Smash fandom for so long it would be shortsighted to at least not oversee her.
Lip is a pretty "meh" character for me. Never played panel de Pon or Tetris Attack either to have a connection to her (though, that isn't to say it's commendable for her supporters who have.) Lip's one of those names people see in Smash Bros. and never hear from again.
Yet again, I'm unfamiliar with the character's moveset potential, but I'm sure she would do just fine. Maybe I'll visit her support thread some other time to have a better idea of how she plays. All I see are attacks involving blocks, flowers, magic, and just about every attack inducing the Flower effect. Oh, that last one's going to make her a pain to fight! Especially if we're talking prop players who will know how to maximize every bit of leeching damage!
PREDICTION
Simon Belmont
Chance - 7.68% Want - 9.81%
Oh Konami, what a creek you've put yourselves in.
NOMINATIONS
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x2
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2 *Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x1
@LasermasterA
I notice you like Abel. Why don't you help me boost up the SMT character nom?
Even though she is first party, she has a very very low chance. Especially after what Sakurai said about Takamaru, I doubt she will make an appearance considering she is much more obscure than him. She was in a Japanese exclusive game on SNES and when she was ported over, she was replaced by Yoshi >.< Takamaru's game was released on the VC lately and there was even an attraction dedicated to his game in Nintendoland.
She might be interesting, but she has very low exposure to the west audience who has a big say in characters as well.
Want: 15%
I didn't even know her before coming to Smashboards.
Prediction: Simon Belmont - iconic but Snake gets veteran preference
12.89%
Nominations:
Abel (SMT: Devil Survivor) or other SMT character x 5
Lip:
Chances: I'd say 15%. She doesn't seem unpopular (so +5%), but her lack of appearances outside of japan severely hurt her chances. The ballot and Sakurai being aware of and (apparently) liking her tack on an extra 10%.
Want: 49%. I have no strong feelings about Lip aside from knowing that I won't exactly be comfortable with fighting a character who looks 7 years old. I'm only subtracting 1% because that's a really, really inane reason in my mind and a lot of people seem to want her. I'll get over it.
Also, just for clarification, is the want percent on a scale with 0% being 'Absolutely no', 50% being indifference, and 100% being 'Absolutely yes', or it it with indifference at 0% and 'Absolutely yes' at 100%?
Simon Belmont Predictions:
Chances: 20%
Want: 70%
Nomination:
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x5
Lip's obscurity doesn't really lend itself well to being DLC. Lip has managed to maintain a small and dedicated fanbase over the years, and Sakurai also has a favourable opinion of her,but I think their cries will be drowned by the bigger surges in the stormy ballot sea.
As for want, she's my number one choice for an obscure character. Panel de Pon is simply awesome, and Lip is cute. Plus needs a friend.
Lip
Chances: 1%
Her franchise hasn't seen activity, she isn't the most demanded retro, retros aren't really demanded, her games were released in Japan only and if they did come to the US they didn't feature her (Tetris Attack features Yoshi and Pokemon Puzzle League is a Pokemon version of Panel de Pon), and so on.
I think the biggest issue is that Lip's Stick is an item already. That's her main weapon. That would be equivalent to Link's Master Sword or Shulk's Monado becoming an item.
Want: 10%
Only for the puzzle moveset, but she doesn't interest me. I personally prefer Layton over Lip for a puzzle moveset, however.
Simon Belmont Prediction: 9.01%
What a horrible night to have a curse.
I've been waiting for this for ages. Now to submit the evidence!
(warning: LOTS of gifs ahead)
This thread is now in session for the rating of Mr. Phoenix Wright.
The prosecution is ready, Your Honour.
The defence is ready, Your Honour.
Judge:
Now then, yesterday this thread witnessed quite a bit of commotion in the case of Ryuuichi -- no, that's not it... Ryuunosuke...
(That's odd. Why are my ears burning...?)
Edgeworth:
Just Ryu, Your Honour.
Judge:
Ah, yes! That person with the apple-scented bandana, right?
Ryu's fighting moves were so cool, Nick! But I bet he wouldn't stand a chance against the Steel Samurai!
(I'm not sure "cool" is how I'd describe them... And was it just me, or was he looking at me like I was some sort of training dummy?)
Judge:
Well... I think it's fair to say that Mr. Ryuunohoshi performed not quite as strongly as we were expecting. What does the prosecution have to say?
Edgeworth:
Quite below expectations, indeed... However, I do believe today's defendant can expect to perform considerably worse, Your Honour.
Phoenix:
(Gee... Thanks for the show of support, Edgeworth... Have you already forgotten that statement I gave to Mr. Takumi when he almost didn't let you join us in Labyrinthia?)
Hmph. Feeling the pinch already, Wright?
...! Er, no, of course not! All's right with Wright! ... Ahaha...
Ugh... Nick, that was terrible, even by your standards...
Phoenix:
You're my assistant, you know... How about actually ASSISTING me for once?
Edgeworth:
Well, I'm afraid I'm only getting started. Show the witness to the stand!
******
Edgeworth:
Will the witness please state his name?
I’m Ryu. Mr. Edgeworth, you struck me as a capable opponent yesterday, so I have returned to challenge you!
Witness, this is no battlefield! You are here only to give your testimony to us!
Ryu:
Talk is cheap. The answers you seek from me lie in the heart of battle.
Judge:
Actually, witness, the answers we seek from you lie in the heart of your testimony. Can you please begin?
Ryu:
I walk the path of a true warrior.
In order to become stronger, I must seek out opponents whose fighting styles differ greatly from any I have seen before.
It only makes sense that I would be asked to join these “Smash Brothers”! They also understand the long path of the warrior!
Not only that, but I have fought many times on Nintendo’s various battlegrounds!
Mr. Wright! You may have overcome me in the past, but you face an uphill battle now!
This time, you must defeat my sound files to stand a chance!
Phoenix:
Those are just sound files! Couldn’t they have just gotten in by some accident? They don’t prove anything!
The people working on this software are professionals, Wright! Do you really think they would make such a grave error?
Ryu:
Mr. Edgeworth is correct. This Sakurai person they speak of seems like an honourable warrior.
Sakurai, honourable? I don’t think so! I’d say he just put those sound files in there to throw us off!
Phoenix:
...! Hey, that’s not a bad idea, Maya! That sounds exactly like something Sakurai would do!
Maya:
Hee hee! Guess I’m not such a bad assistant after all, huh, Nick? Keep those burgers coming, and I’ll keep the ideas coming!
Phoenix:
That’s only one good idea, Maya. Win this case for me first, then we might talk burgers.
Well, Edgeworth? You can’t deny that it’s possible!
Tsk, tsk. And you call yourself a lawyer, Wright? Have you already forgotten about copyright law? Those files are Capcom’s property! There’s no way they would allow anyone to use them for a mere prank!
Phoenix:
Then, do you have a better explanation for them?
Edgeworth:
Isn’t it obvious? The files are a sure sign of Mr. Sakurai’s intent to invite the witness to join the fight!
Ryu:
Indeed. And since Mega Man has already joined before either of us, I’m afraid there would be no room for a third outsider. But do not take your defeat too harshly, Mr. Wright. It is merely one more step on my path to becoming a true warrior.
Face it, Wright. In the courtroom, evidence is everything... and all of the evidence points to the witness having been chosen over you!
Phoenix:
Wh-whaaaat!? (This isn’t good at all!)
Maya:
Come on, Nick! We can’t just give up now! Can’t you point your finger and do one of your “turnabout” things, or something?
Phoenix:
It’s not that simple, Maya... But you’re right. Maybe if I try thinking about it from a different angle... I’m thinking about the data from inside the game, but what about the data from outside the game?
...! Aha! I’ve got it!
On this website, we can clearly see that my games have sold over five million copies worldwide! Not only that, but they’re all on Nintendo platforms too! Something our witness’ titles clearly are not!
Honestly, Wright? You’re presenting information from VGChartz for video game sales? That’s like looking up Eventhubs for fighting game match-ups! But I suppose I could humour you for a moment... I direct the thread’s attention to this page on the same website. The sales figures clearly state 6.3 million units! That’s one game, Wright. One game is all our witness needs to best you!
6.3 MILLION!?
Judge:
I think we’ve heard enough from this witness. It’s clear to the thread at this point who is the more notable personality.
Ryu:
My commiserations, Mr. Wright. You put up a good fight, and you have earned my respect. I look forward to our next battle, wherever it may take place.
Phoenix:
(There must be something else I can come up with...)
???:
Hmm... Looks like you’re in a bit of trouble, Phoenix.
Phoenix:
(That voice...!)
It’s been a while, Phoenix.
Phoenix:
Chief! Why are you here?
Mia:
For the same reason I always come back - to get you to turn this case around! Remember, this is a public ballot, so it’s not the data in the games that’s important - it’s the people who will be playing those games. Have you considered what the onlookers think of this whole situation?
Phoenix:
...! Of course! We still don’t know who the people want to appear in the game!
Heh heh. I figured that would come up sooner or later... Bring in the next witness!
Edgeworth is as sharp as ever... He’s probably been waiting for this to come up. Be careful, Phoenix.
******
Edgeworth:
The witness will state his name and occupation to the thread.
Detective **** Gumshoe, sir. I'm a homicide detective with the local precinct, sir.
Edgeworth:
Detective. Can you state your first name again?
Gumshoe:
****, sir.
... ... ...
Mia:
I know Detective Gumshoe may not be the sharpest tool in the box... But I never imagined he’d have difficulty with his own name...
What seems to be the problem, witness?
I'm not sure, sir... See, these big star-shaped things keep appearing whenever I try saying my first name, and they won't let me say it. You want I should spell it out instead? D-I- --
Judge:
No, no, that won't be necessary, witness. We don't need to get anyone in trouble here!
... If we're done avoiding being in contempt of thread, can the witness please detail the public opinion of this case?
Gumshoe:
Sure thing, sir!
Gumshoe:
Today’s the 32nd day of this thread, so we’ve probably already dealt with the most popular nominations.
So far, the crocodile and the wolf guy are winning, and everyone seems to think the wolf is a shoo-in.
Not only that, but the people think that, because Ryu is so likely, they aren’t even giving you a chance, pal!
They think it’d be a waste of a vote to choose someone who has no hope of winning. And a lot of people aren’t even sure how you’d be able to fight.
Also... well, you’re a lawyer, pal. Nobody really likes lawyers these days...
I’m afraid that’s where you’re wrong, Detective. I think if you look around this place enough, you’ll find I’m plenty popular around here! People might not think my chances are good, but how many people can you actually find who’ve said they don’t like me?
Gumshoe:
Hey... you’re right, pal! I can’t find many bad comments about you at all!
Preposterous! Do you mean people actually LIKE watching you bluff your way through every single court case?
Well... it hasn’t failed me yet, has it? But my point still stands! If you look around here, I think you’ll find I’ve got far more fans than detractors!
Judge:
“Look around here”? Where are we looking? Who are we looking at?
Phoenix:
I wasn’t talking about anywhere in particular, Your Honour... I meant, if you ask around among the people here...
Judge:
Ask around? You there, bailiff! Bring down some of the audience members to the stand, so we can hear their opinions!
That won’t be necessary, Your Honour... The point I’m trying to make is, I think people are underestimating my popularity. And in a public poll, isn’t that what’s important?
Edgeworth:
I’m not sure the results of the poll are going to determine who gets in, as such... But I suppose it can’t be denied that Wright does have his fans.
Mia:
Edgeworth is actually agreeing with you? This can’t be good...
Edgeworth:
Yes, you may have your supporters, but nobody has answered the question of what you would actually do in this “Smash Brothers”!
Haven’t you done any research? Take a look at this video. I’ve got more tricks up my sleeve than you think!
What the... What are you doing with that evidence... ONE MILLION POINTS!?
Judge:
Oho! I must say, they captured my gavel work perfectly! And the fluffiness of my beard... I must show this to my brother later - it will put his “glorious playoff beard” to shame!
Phoenix... Is that my sister I see there, doing your dirty work for you?
Phoenix:
*gulp* W-well, Chief... she said you told her to look after me, so she insisted I let her help...
Mia:
That magic shield is amazing, though... The powers of the Kurain Channeling Technique never cease to amaze me.
Ahem... yes, well... These tricks are all well and good here, but who’s to say these “Smash Brothers” will let you use any of them?
Phoenix:
You’re right, Edgeworth - who’s to say? But don’t you think I should at least get a chance to find out, though?
Hmph... I will admit, I’m curious to see more of what we can do with the evidence we find...
Gumshoe:
Hey, pal, where do you keep finding all of that evidence, anyway? Us detectives can never find half as much as you!
Phoenix:
Ahaha... I guess criminals always leave traces behind... You just... have to know where to look!
Judge:
So! It looks as though both the defence and prosecution are in agreement regarding how much they want to see Mr. Wright join the “Smash Brothers”! Is that right, Mr. Edgeworth?
Edgeworth:
... I suppose that would be accurate, Your Honour...
Well done, Phoenix! Another successful turnabout!
Well... I’ve got you to thank for it again, Chief...
Judge:
Well, I believe there’s nothing more to be said regarding this case, except for my verdict!
Um... This wasn’t a trial, Your Honour...
Chance: 12% because he's more Nintendo-ish than Ryu, but still not very likely.
Want: 100% - See above
Prediction for Lip: 9.26%
Nominations: Anna (Fire Emblem) x3
Professor Layton x2
Lip
Chance: 40%
DLC helps and nowadays Nintendo has been shelling out tons of puzzle games with Pokemon, Dr. Mario, and now Puzzles & Dragons. Since they are also incorporating mobile platforms it will benefit them well to revive a game like Panel de Pon so that it can be their very own version of Puzzles & Dragons. Sakurai already likes her and she's first party so why not right?
Want: 80%
I'm down for more female representation and creative move sets. When it comes to Smash Bros I always expect to see as many 1st party characters get in before 3rd party and Lip fits well. Though I feel like just because she isn't that popular, she'll get the same treatment as Takamaru and Prince Sable. They almost made the cut which I still find awesome so if these three don't make it now then better luck in the next installment.
Lip
Chance: 40%
I feel like @JamesDNaux
did a great job of summarizing anything I'd want to put here, but I do want to add a slight addendum. Nintendo is increasingly moving into a situation with Smash where almost every heavy hitter and runner up has a role in game already. As such, I think within the combination of this DLC campaign and the next few entries, there's going to be a serious re-evaluation of "Most Known Unknowns" of which Lip is a member as they try to repurpose a few old characters for new audiences as part of Smash's trojan horse method of introduction. I don't honestly see something happening with her soon but I do feel like we're a coin toss and a "Sakuraiiiiii" away from her and a few other characters jumping in.
Want: 100%
She has literally been one of my top 3 most wanted characters with Takamaru and Mike Jones for 10 years now with the understanding of what she could bring to the table (including but not limited to: new franchise representation, new IntSys representation, Nintendo Puzzle League and Nintendo puzzle game representation with a character who actually uses their game's mechanics and isn't just a wardrobe swap [], funky ass moveset potential because of said game mechanics involving targeted swapping, another "Melee Marth/Roy" situation where people get educated on a cool aspect of Nintendo history via her inclusion) and some visuals created to demonstrate her potential over time.
I can't give her a worst chance rate really... I think that she is possible... not exactly likeable, but possible... And can be a fun a interesting character to use (Well... two problems: Mainly japan fanbase and her weapon is a item).
Want: 60%
Is a cute girl, with possible interesting moves related with puzzles... I think that she would be fun.
+ First-party SNES era retro
+ Puzzle-based move set would probably be pretty unique
+ Reasonably popular in Japan
- Japan-only character
- Therefore basically unknown in the West outside hardcore Nintendo-ites
- Probably not high enough on Japanese ballot to overcome poor performance on Western ballot
- Lip's Stick already an item. This is kinda like if the Master Sword were an item. It's definitely a negative even if it's not decisive.
- Only one main character appearance and a couple cameo appearances, so not a particularly major character
- No promotional/marketing value of including
Lip chances: 1%
All in all, Lip has little going for her and some big negatives. She's not going to top the global ballot and she can't be used to promote upcoming games, and many Western fans would be annoyed that bigger name characters that are well-known in all markets were passed over for her.
Lip want: 35%
Don't really want her, but she would at least be interesting + increase female representation.
Simon Belmont prediction: 5%
I predict I will cry bloody tears over his poor chances. What a horrible night to be a Konami character.
If it was never a poll, why did Iwata call it a poll in the Nintendo Direct?
Then there's the fact that it's called a ballot, which, you know, implies there are votes. And the website uses the word "vote". If it's merely a suggestion box and the amount of support for characters doesn't matter, then it has been presented extremely poorly.
Beyond that, there's just generally no evidence for your position. You can say "Well, they call it a poll and say you're voting, but there's always a chance they'll just ignore it and do what they want!" But to declare that it's definitely not a poll? Yeah, no. That's simply not supported, at all.
He has stated that characters (specifically Takamaru) did not make it in due to obscurity/lack of impact in the west, but there are clearly fans of said characters here. Even if just a handful of us make suggestions, it only takes one push to send the ball rolling.
Do you really think that Sakurai didn't think there was even a single Takamaru fan in the West? A handful of votes on the Ballot doesn't change that, it's not new information.
It would come off as biased (rightfully so) of me to give Lip a high score, but I think almost any Nintendo character is nothing more than a coin toss away from getting in thanks to the ballot, and Smash is no stranger to obscure characters anyway. Chance: 50%
This sounds like you're saying that no Nintendo character is any more or less likely than another.
But the thing is, there are dozens and dozens of plausible candidates, and only a limited number of DLC characters will be made. Even if we suppose there are going to be 10 more DLC characters (an overly optimistic assumption, in my view) there are probably like 100 plausible candidates according to your statement. Which means they should all get a 10/100 = a 10% chance, not a 50% chance.
I don't understand why so many people think randomness is always 50-50. It's not. This is like playing blackjack and thinking "The next card is either a queen, or not a queen, so I have a 50% chance of winning!" Nope, that's not even close to the correct mathematical reasoning!
Well, if the possible Nintendo characters are a deck of cards and each card has an equal chance of being drawn - then the chances the Queen of Panel de Pon is in the next five cards is 5/52, not 50%. See what I mean? Better to think of it as a draw from a deck rather than a coin flip, if you must persist in thinking no character is more likely than another.
It may seem a bit generous, but I think it'll only take one convincing vote to sway Sakurai's opinion on a (Nintendo) character.
It's extremely generous, for the reasons that I just laid out.
And that ballot submission better be a ****ing masterpiece that makes him cry, because I simply don't see that as at all likely. And what about all the other characters that have one or two or a hundred "convincing votes"? It's all well and good if you think only Lip's fans will be trying to write something convincing, but believe it or not, other characters have eloquent fans too!
Want: 0%
An iconic character should be recognizable across all regions, not dummied out since Americans don't like to play games with kawaii fairy girls on the cover. And Smash characters should be recognizable, particularly if they intend to sell any DLC...
You cant speak for all Americans, I'm American and I feel the exact opposite
Chance 49%
+ Sakurai adores her, and loves putting in obscure retro characters to troll us.
+ Roy & Marth only being known mainly in Japan at the time of Melee's release did not prevent them from making it over here in the states.
+ Several references are made to her & Panel de Pon in game: Lip's Stick, Kirby Garbage Block, her Theme Song.
+ Ice climbers were unimportant, obscure retro characters that also made it in due to the porential for a unique moveset and Lip also has that potential.
+ She was semi-recently in a game called Captain Rainbow(JPN only) where she got some much needed audience, so she's more known now.
+ She's female.
+ 2015 is Panel de Pon's 20th anniversary- the perfect time to bring her back!
- If she's not in she'll cry and no one wants to see her cry right?
WANT 100% She's one of my most favorite Nintendo characters ever and she would without a doubt have a very unique moveset and this would make alot of people happy and get them interested in playing as her and thus get her popular again and thus we colud finally have a new Panel de Pon!
Want: 100% A flower fighting fairy of doom would be my ideal choice of a new main. Just imagine all the salt from those that would even lose to a cute little thing like her.
AND THIS. Characters Like Peach, Jigglypuff and Pichu and the like are very fun to play as against other people who detest cute things for some deplorable reason
Simon Belmont Prediction: 24%
Nominations:
Geno x3
Ashley (wario ware) x2
I will leave you with Lip addressing all her haters and naysayers:
Sakurai isn't going to leave Lip out because her stick is in already.
It just means her playability hasn't been considered for the main roster, but the presence of the stick doesn't make her less likely.
Sakurai isn't going to leave Lip out because her stick is in already.
It just means her playability hasn't been considered for the main roster, but the presence of the stick doesn't make her less likely.
Lip Chance: 2.9%
Not very recognizable, and her item has been featured in Smash since Melee meaning that the franchise was thought of by Sakurai over a decade ago, but he didn't and hasn't decided to make her playable since. Instead it's represented through various other means. That doesn't really bode too well for her chances as DLC, at least to me. I'll give the flower wielding puzzle girl 2.9%.
Lip's Stick is one of my favorite items though...
Want: 7%
I don't have much of an interest. With so few characters we have left to look forward to due to DLC, I'd rather she was just in the base game if anything.
Sadly, I don't have much time today to do a complete rate so I'll just throw the number and I'll leave it at that, who knows, if I can, I'll come back to edit and put my thoughts...
DAY 33 : LIP
Chance :27% Want :20%
Prediction : Simon Belmont :3%
I try to be realistic with my predictions. Admittedly, yeah, I don't agree with many of them. Frankly I think for a first-party character with references in game already she shouldn't get any less than 15% or so, at the same time, she's not well known, so I can't realistically give her higher than 30.
![[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]](/data/avatars/l/267/267037.jpg?1450250857){kind=avatar}
