Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[WeirdChillFever]

EDIT: Whoops, fast traffic, didn't read the post.

Disregard.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Except there was no "word" on this one AND has gone back on it already.

He said that characters that fight in their own games are less special.

And well, multiple characters have fought in their source games, especially Little Mac.

Also, Ryu appearing in Smash won't sell stuff one way, Street Fighter fans might buy Smash Bros. too.

I'm not arguing over this again, so STOP QUOTING ME.

 

[Deleted member]

The average Nintendo fan isn't going to know We Love Golf or SNK vs. Capcom or Project X Zone. Smash is a collection of Nintendo all-stars and the occassional guest who fits in with that medium. Rayman fits. Ryu does not.

I'm pretty sure that the average Nintendo fan knows of Street Fighter II, though.

Edit: I also love how everyone ignores my other point about how promoting Ryu is promoting an exclusive to another company that is a rival that ALREADY HAS MORE SALES THAN EVERYONE ELSE

People used a similar argument against Snake's inclusion (MGSV won't be coming to Wii U and Nintendo wouldn't want to promote a game exclusive to competing platforms), but he has other problems that Ryu lacks (Snake might be to violent for an E10+-rated game, Konami's current situation, etc.).

 

[A Distant Demon]

Arguing a point and refusing to defend it after half of your argument is factually false is silly but i have golf anyway so oh well.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I'm pretty sure that the average Nintendo fan knows of Street Fighter II, though.

People used a similar argument against Snake's inclusion (MGSV won't be coming to Wii U and Nintendo wouldn't want to promote a game exclusive to competing platforms), but he has other problems that Ryu lacks (Snake might be to violent for an E10+-rated game, Konami's current situation, etc.).

Snake got in due to personal request from his creator who happened to be Sakurai's friend.
Pretty sure Ryu's creator didn't do that.

This was also BRAWL, 7 YEARS AGO.

Also pretty sure the average Nintendo fans are KIDS. They wouldn't know of a 20-year old game.

I'm not arguing over this again, so STOP QUOTING ME.

 

[CyberWolfBia]

http://www.cubed3.com/news/15105/1/ono-nintendo-x-capcom-ask-sakurai.html
"ask Sakurai", was what Ono said.. maybe he was the one to ask him, but due the priority given to Mega Man, Ryu had to wait in the queue. And DLC happened, everybody's happy! =P

 

[Scamper52596]

Ryu
Chance: 92%
I'm a little surprised at how many people I've seen with cautiously low scores, but I can understand it. Ryu is a character that next to nobody expected before the leaked sound files. The biggest thing that proves this whole thing to me is that the sound files were added to the game via a patch while Nintendo had the rights to use MegaMan, but there was nothing Street Fighter related in the base game. That tells me that they must've gotten the rights either near or after the game's completion, and now that they apparently have them I don't think they're going to waste it. While I defnitely expect him to show up as DLC at some point, I still shaved off a few percents because we won't know for sure until we see his trailer and he's formally announced. I just don't feel comfortable rating any character 99% because to me that basically means confirmed. I'll give the street fighting legend a solid 92%.
I wonder if we'll ever have a Smash game without any leaks...

Want: 35%
Ryu definitely wasn't a character I ever wanted before, but like many I've warmed up to the idea. Mainly because I have some friends who are excited about his likely inclusion. I've also developed a curiousity as to how well he'll translate into Smash itself since this sort inclusion is pretty rare, but if for whatever unknown reason he actually didn't end up making it in I would just shrug and say oh well. I only hope that Nintendo struck a good deal with Capcom that we may not yet know about in order to have this character make it in as DLC.

Prediction - Phoenix Wright: 6.3%

Nominations:
x3 Toon Zelda
x2 Tails the Fox

 

[Kalimdori]

I'm not arguing over this again, so STOP QUOTING ME.

Arguing a point and refusing to defend it after half of your argument is factually false is silly

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Except I didn't come in here to start an argument. I came in here to drop off my rating then leave.

 

[Kalimdori]

Except I didn't come in here to start an argument. I came in here to drop off my rating then leave.

Then stop responding when we point out how wrong you are

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Then stop responding when we point out how wrong you are

Says the guy who hasn't actually made any points, valid or otherwise



I can't wait until this Ryu **** is over so I can absorb all the butthurt when I turn out to be the one guy who was right

 

[Champ Gold]

I'm pretty sure that the average Nintendo fan knows of Street Fighter II, though.

People used a similar argument against Snake's inclusion (MGSV won't be coming to Wii U and Nintendo wouldn't want to promote a game exclusive to competing platforms), but he has other problems that Ryu lacks (Snake might be to violent for an E10+-rated game, Konami's current situation, etc.).

I actually think Nintendo fans know of Ryu and Street Fighter from more than just SF2. Nintendo fans are most cases fans of gaming in general, trying to act like they are disconnected from rest of the gaming world sans anything revolving around Nintendo is a stupid assumption. Most guys I know who are hardcore Nintendo fans own other company systems or even a PC. Especially considering how well SSF4 3D did. Hell I believe modern Nintendo fans would probably know Ryu better than most other 3rd party characters requested but what would I know.

Plus Ryu coming in can help bring in more possible Capcom games. It won't be SF5 but it will be other games like USF4, ports of other fighters, Power Stone or Rival Schools on Wii U. Snake lost his chance when Konami decided to shaft the Wii U for anything MGS related and considering there isn't a Wii U Konami game, that's a problem.

 

[CyberWolfBia]

 

[N3ON]

This is a leak. It's just a leak of in-game data that anyone can do if they have enough technical knowledge.

 

[CyberWolfBia]

I actually think Nintendo fans know of Ryu and Street Fighter from more than just SF2. Nintendo fans are most cases fans of gaming in general, trying to act like they are disconnected from rest of the gaming world sans anything revolving around Nintendo is a stupid assumption. Most guys I know who are hardcore Nintendo fans own other company systems or even a PC. Especially considering how well SSF4 3D did. Hell I believe modern Nintendo fans would probably know Ryu better than most other 3rd party characters requested but what would I know.

Plus Ryu coming in can help bring in more possible Capcom games. It won't be SF5 but it will be other games like USF4, ports of other fighters, Power Stone or Rival Schools on Wii U. Snake lost his chance when Konami decided to shaft the Wii U for anything MGS related and considering there isn't a Wii U Konami game, that's a problem.

I'm pretty sure that everybody who bought a 3DS in the first year, also bought SSFIV 3D... =P (was among of the few titles worthy, imo), sold like crazy, turning the first game in the system to ship 1 million copies, and it is still between the best selling titles after so long time..

yeah... modern and current Nintendo players know very well Ryu (just using the absurd parameters of a gamer that don't see and knows nothing but games released on Nintendo systems, lol)

---OOooh, and you're right about Rival Schools!

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Ryu
Chance: 85%
Giving him the same as Roy's and only because of the sound files.

Want: 70%
I grew up playing Street Fighter and Ryu was my main while Guile was my secondary. I thought Ryu was awesome as a character and was in a class of his own that I never stopped to think of him as a candidate for Smash Bros. He's an iconic character in the fighting game genre and the thought of his inclusion keeps growing on me seeing as he can be a great fit in any fight you put him in. You've seen him fight against Marvel, SNK, Tatsunoko, Tekken, so it would be perfect for his next challenge to fight against Nintendo's fighters. I think I'll be hyped once it gets confirmed but if not then there will be room for another character.

Predictions
Phoenix Wright:
- Chance: 18% - Want: 25%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Jesus Christ, it's like a vat of piranhas in here. Calm down and let people voice their ratings with or without taking the stupid sound files into account.

 

[Double0Groove]

Once again, I point out the Street Fighter 5 is a PS4 exclusive, and is coming soon. Advertising a character from a game series that is getting it's newest installment on a RIVAL company's platform is a stupid idea. It's the same reason Banjo-Kazooie won't make it; it's just poor business sense.

Okay so, there's two reasons why I think that argument doesn't make any sense; A: If that statement you said were true, Snake would've NEVER made it in Brawl no matter how many times Kojima begged, not unless he made or ported an MGS game to the Wii. B: Street fighter isn't the only fighting game that Ryu can appear in( and I'm not just talking about Smash bros either), Capcom most likely requested him to be put in and probably even worked out a deal to justify his inclusion to those standards( my favorite assumption is Nintendo vs. Capcom).

 

[N3ON]

I can't wait until this Ryu **** is over so I can absorb all the butthurt when I turn out to be the one guy who was right

So... can I quote this in a few months?

Jesus Christ, it's like a vat of piranhas in here. Calm down and let people voice their ratings with or without taking the stupid sound files into account.

You mean the reason people are rating him in the first place? Yeah, let's just ignore that.

Unless you're talking about the Want rating.

 

[Delzethin]

Meanwhile, there's something about the files that I don't understand.

You know how Nintendo's been very careful to stomp out any leaks they can, right? When the Shulk and Bowser Jr. footage was put up on Youtube last August, it was gone within hours. When a commercial mistakenly showed part of Ganondorf before he was officially revealed, they edited that scene out of the commercial. They've always suppressed leaked information if it was at all possible.

So why didn't the latest patch get rid of the excess code they accidentally left in the previous one?

...Seriously, I have no idea what this could mean. >_>

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ryu
Chance 99.99999999999%
Leaks man. I am pretty sold.
Want 90%
Important to video game history? Yes. Important to Nintendo history? Yes. Opens the door for other third parties to get two characters (Snake and a Castlevania character? Sweet!)? Possibly. The one issue? His inclusion feels...weird.

Nominating Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character x 5

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Meanwhile, there's something about the files that I don't understand.

You know how Nintendo's been very careful to stomp out any leaks they can, right? When the Shulk and Bowser Jr. footage was put up on Youtube last August, it was gone within hours. When a commercial mistakenly showed part of Ganondorf before he was officially revealed, they edited that scene out of the commercial. They've always suppressed leaked information if it was at all possible.

So why didn't the latest patch get rid of the excess code they accidentally left in the previous one?

...Seriously, I have no idea what this could mean. >_>

In my rating, I actually requested someone search for and link any data from previous versions to verify if the sound files were indeed added with the Mewtwo patch.

I guess you could say they underestimated the possibility of people reaching into in-game files, where they should be most secure.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Meanwhile, there's something about the files that I don't understand.

You know how Nintendo's been very careful to stomp out any leaks they can, right? When the Shulk and Bowser Jr. footage was put up on Youtube last August, it was gone within hours. When a commercial mistakenly showed part of Ganondorf before he was officially revealed, they edited that scene out of the commercial. They've always suppressed leaked information if it was at all possible.

So why didn't the latest patch get rid of the excess code they accidentally left in the previous one?

...Seriously, I have no idea what this could mean. >_>

Because they've learned that removing it would confirm it.

 

[IceBreakerXY]

In my rating, I actually requested someone search for and link any data from previous versions to verify if the sound files were indeed added with the Mewtwo patch.

I guess you could say they underestimated the possibility of people reaching into in-game files, where they should be most secure.

Let's not forget this isnt the first a Wii u game has had DLC leaked Mario kart 8 and hyrule warriors had there DLC leaked.my guess Is just thatthat Nintendo sucks st hiding there files

 

[AreJay25]

The way I see it, there wasn't much they could do with the ESRB footage. They couldn't deny something that clearly showed content in the game, so their only option was removing the videos.

With the sound files, they can just leave them in to to raise the possibility of whether or not it's content that'll make it into the game.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Let's not forget this isnt the first a Wii u game has had DLC leaked Mario kart 8 and hyrule warriors had there DLC leaked.my guess Is just thatthat Nintendo sucks st hiding there files

Just to clarify, the files were on the 3DS version. not the Wii U. Take that for what you will about Nintendo's firmware.

 

[AlphaSSB]

You mean the reason people are rating him in the first place? Yeah, let's just ignore that.

Unless you're talking about the Want rating.

I'm referring to all the hostility towards one person for voicing what they think of a few sound files. If someone does or does not think that the sound files mean anything, than it's whatever. I'm just genuinely appalled by the number of people who became just plain rude over a post. Like it was a personal attack or something. We don't need a flashback to Roy's day..

 

[Curious Villager]

I think the best they can probably do is probably hold off revealing the characters for a while and maybe reveal any other characters they may be working with first.

Then again, with a character like Ryu who I'm fairly sure would be prepared just for E3. Seems to be a pretty difficult thing to do.....

 

[Kalimdori]

Says the guy who hasn't actually made any points, valid or otherwise

The files. Are in. The game.

I can't wait until this Ryu **** is over so I can absorb all the butthurt when I turn out to be the one guy who was right

I hope you realize how much you will be quoted on this

If someone does or does not think that the sound files mean anything, than it's whatever.

If someone is blatantly ignoring something that's confirmed to be true, it's going to get called out, otherwise it screws with the results. We're inaccurate enough as is.

If it was a want score then it would be fine, but Chance=/=Want.

 

[AreJay25]

Oh boy next month is going to be fun.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Oh boy next month is going to be fun.

Yes indeed. Especially if Roy also ends up being revealed there as well.

 

[Ura]

Meanwhile, there's something about the files that I don't understand.

You know how Nintendo's been very careful to stomp out any leaks they can, right? When the Shulk and Bowser Jr. footage was put up on Youtube last August, it was gone within hours. When a commercial mistakenly showed part of Ganondorf before he was officially revealed, they edited that scene out of the commercial. They've always suppressed leaked information if it was at all possible.

So why didn't the latest patch get rid of the excess code they accidentally left in the previous one?

...Seriously, I have no idea what this could mean. >_>

There hasn't been any content leaked though so there's a big difference there. The only thing revealed was the coding for Roy and Ryu and videos relating to them are just people discussing the possibility of them being in the game. With Shulk and Ganon, their was content showing them in the game so it would make sense that they would take that down.

 

[AlphaSSB]

If someone is blatantly ignoring something that's confirmed to be true, it's going to get called out, otherwise it screws with the results. We're inaccurate enough as is.

If it was a want score then it would be fine, but Chance=/=Want.

Yes, you're right. Chance and Want are two completely seperate things. However, they aren't blantantly ignoring something to be confirmed true. Yeah, sure, the files may be there. Whatever. If someone disregards them due to their opinion, it should be the same thing: a big whatever. And it does not at all screw with the results. The results here are a combined percentage of what we the community thing of these icons. If one person says "Sound files, shmound files. They don't mean anything. Chance: 0% Want: 0%" and another says "OMG SOUND FILES! ROY AND RYU CONFIRMED! CHANCE 1000% WANT 1000%" - Both ratings are completely valid because both people are from the community. The only way results can be skewed would be is if someone goes through the trouble to make multiple alternate accounts for the sole purpose of up-rating or down-rating a character.

So in reality. We're very accurate when it comes to these characters' ratings because that is what we, the people of this thread, have rated them. Now are we inaccurate to the entirety of the Super Smash Brothers community? You bet your arse we are. Are the combined ratings of this thread inaccurate to one person's opinion of an icon's chances and how much they want them? For the most part, yeah.

I'm not trying to spark a riot here, Kalim. I'm standing up agianst something that we are above doing.

 

[Kalimdori]

Yes, you're right. Chance and Want are two completely seperate things. However, they aren't blantantly ignoring something to be confirmed true. Yeah, sure, the files may be there. Whatever. If someone disregards them due to their opinion, it should be the same thing: a big whatever. And it does not at all screw with the results. The results here are a combined percentage of what we the community thing of these icons. If one person says "Sound files, shmound files. They don't mean anything. Chance: 0% Want: 0%" and another says "OMG SOUND FILES! ROY AND RYU CONFIRMED! CHANCE 1000% WANT 1000%" - Both ratings are completely valid because both people are from the community. The only way results can be skewed would be is if someone goes through the trouble to make multiple alternate accounts for the sole purpose of up-rating or down-rating a character.

So in reality. We're very accurate when it comes to these characters' ratings because that is what we, the people of this thread, have rated them. Now are we inaccurate to the entirety of the Super Smash Brothers community? You bet your arse we are. Are the combined ratings of this thread inaccurate to one person's opinion of an icon's chances and how much they want them? For the most part, yeah.

I'm not trying to spark a riot here, Kalim. I'm standing up agianst something that we are above doing.

You may think "we are above doing" that, (I hope you realize how high and mighty that makes you sound) but I don't share that belief in the slightest. If I disagree with someone, I'm going to argue my point. If I disagree with someone because they are basing their opinion on faulty logic, or ignoring facts, I will double my efforts. If I didn't enjoy debating and seeing how different people interpret characters chances, I wouldn't play this game.

 

[AlphaSSB]

You may think "we are above doing" that, (I hope you realize how high and mighty that makes you sound) but I don't share that belief in the slightest. If I disagree with someone, I'm going to argue my point. If I disagree with someone because they are basing their opinion on faulty logic, or ignoring facts, I will double my efforts. If I didn't enjoy debating and seeing how different people interpret characters chances, I wouldn't play this game.

If I wanted to make myself sound high and mighty, than I wouldn't have said "we". However, viewing the current situation, I feel that "we should" is more appropriate. There is nothing wrong with debate, Kalim, but debate and lashing out/ganging up on one another are two completely different things.

I'm not your enemy.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

I'm really feeling lazy these days.
Ryu
Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Phoenix Wright Prediction: 23.45%

Nominations:
9-Volt x5

 

[LasermasterA]

Missed this thread again. Well since I have an exam tomorrow I will make this quick.

Ryu

Chance: 90%
Files in patch and all that.

Want: 10%

I know he is really iconic and all that but he shouldn't be in Smash in my opinion. He is after all a typical .... street fighter. Albeit with Hadokens and other complicated martial maneuvers.

I would have preferred someone like Phoenix Wright with his moveset entirely consisting of "Objections", "Take thats" and "Hold its". With the occasional cold sweat and obviously the iconic pointer finger!

Prediction:
I was going to vote for Phoenix but looks like his turn has already come up! I think he will get something like 16.4723459% (super accurate for the laughs) because he may not be a legend but he is iconic to Nintendo. But Ryu will play a damper on his chances.

Nominations:
Cross (XenobladeX) x 2
Elma x 3

 

[Pacack]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings *Now With Updated Chance Scores!!*

This is meant to give perspective on my ratings. They tend to be a lot lower than most here.

Roy (Fire Emblem): 76.5%
*Wolf: 66.66%
King K. Rool: 33.34%
Captain Toad: 30%
Isaac: 27.5%
*Ice Climber (Singular with separate Popo and Nana costumes): 22.5%
Dixie Kong: 17.5%
*Inkling: 15%
Impa: 10.75%
*Bandanna Dee: 10.5%
*Ridley: 9.66%
*Wonder Red: 7.75%
Krystal: 7.5%
*Henry Fleming: 6.66%
Tetra: 5%
Chorus Kids: 5.25%
*Ray (Custom Robo): 4.33%
*Sceptile: 3.34%
**Paper Mario: 3.33%
*Rayman: 2.33%
Banjo-Kazooie: 2%
*Ice Climbers (Tag Team): 2%
Shantae: 1.15%
*Shovel Knight: 1.05%
*Quote: 0.36%
*Snake: .1%

Abstained:
Magolor (Kirby)
Midna & Wolf Link (The Legend of Zelda)
Pichu

*Was not here on rating day.
**Have changed my mind on my rating since I last rated.

Total of 364.48%, an expected three or four characters (with four being more likely) before considering Ryu, who is about 85% in my mind, which would raise it to 449.48%.

Concepts:
Alternate Costumes: 70%
*An NPC Becomes Playable: 22.5%

*Was not here on rating day.

Ryu:

Ryu has the privilege of being my personal "most likely" candidate. While Roy's files still have the potential of being scrapped data for a clone that was removed in favor of Lucina, or for a later DLC costume (since we don't know how those would have to be handled if they had their own victory themes), Ryu's files are not so easily explained away.

The only scenario that I can see as feasible that would explain Ryu's sound files would be that Nintendo and Capcom were in contact, were planning on adding a character, and were debating whether they would add Mega Man or Ryu, with Nintendo wanting the former and Capcom wanting the latter. From there, they could have either come to the agreement of adding just Mega Man, in which case Ryu's files are just unused content like from previous games, or Nintendo and Capcom decided to make a deal that both would be added in (potentially with the condition that X had to happen alongside, like Street Fighter V coming to Nintendo's next console or something).

Chance: 85%

I give some leverage simply because I recognize that I am not infallible by any stretch of the imagination, but I am leaning heavily towards Ryu being confirmed at this point in time. I can't come up with another scenario that makes sense that explains the files, but I know that there may be some, so I accounted for that.


Want: 30%

I want this as a costume.

Otherwise, I'm pretty ambivalent... I have no attachment to him at all. I would be happy to see him fighting Mario and Captain Falcon too, but that's about it.


Phoenix Wright Prediction: 5.43%

Nominations: Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Okay, now that things have quieted down a little bit, I have a big suggestion in light of today's E3 announcement-announcements.

RTC E3 WEEK!

Here is the schedule I propose for next month for E3 week:
starting Sunday night, June 14th-15th Pre-E3 Predictions and Discussion
starting Tuesday night, June 16th Nintendo's E3 Digital Direct Satisfaction Scores
starting Wednesday night, June 17th Post-E3 Discussion Cool-Off Day / everyone gets 15 nominations on this day!
on Thursday the 18th we can resume rating as usual.

The benefits of this make this the go-to thread for discussion of all things E3. It also gives us a break from our routine. This is the thread where we are directly encouraged to talk about all things Nintendo history, so why not spend a brief period dreaming about Nintendo future?

The benefit of a day or two of cool-off afterwards (combined with 15 bonus noms for everyone) is to give everyone a chance to contemplate how E3 undoubtedly affects the chances, positively or negatively, of many characters. We may be introduced to new characters, we may have DLC confirmations, characters we've already rated may have been given major roles that we didn't anticipate, etc. This will surely change our perceptions of multiple characters, and you can spend these bonus nominations accordingly to what it is important to you guys to rate or rerate.

E3 Week would be a load of fun. Rate Their Chances has gotta go big or go home.

What does everyone think of this proposed plan? @ colder_than_ice ?

 

[Sid-cada]

Ryu

Chance - 99% - A mere half a percent lower than Roy. This is due to the third party situation being more complicated. I'd think it over more, but as my want rating would show, I'm very biased that anything else would show...

Want - 0.5% - Ugh. This is quite the conundrum...

First, let me start off by saying that if this is true, every third party after Mega Man thus far has been a disappointment. I didn't like Pac-Man before his announcement, but I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt by playing as him for a bit. And you know what? I find him too complex for casual play, and once you get rid of all his fancy tricks he's rather boring. In fact, I don't find his move set to be as fun or creative as people claim it to be. Maybe it's because I rely on level 9 CPUs, but I also don't find him fun to fight against either.

So now that we get to Ryu, we have a character that we already have the core idea of three times over. So I have to ask, considering Sakurai was already hesitant to add fighting game characters due to them possibly adding nothing to the roster, why would he chose the one who he used as the base for the most famous Nintendo character? This looks to be a behind the scenes deal more than because someone thought it would be a good choice. Then everyone's going to flock to him claiming he has a good move set while I think they don't.

I would reserve judgement on what sort of third party was repeated, but as it stands this is one of the worst ones I could think of. Simon Belmont alongside Snake? Seeing how the whip would work would be cool. Bomber-man? The spacing game would be glorious. Amaterasu? Okami needs more love. Phoenix Wright? Okay, would have preferred Professor Layton as the sort of jokey puzzle-based charter, but I can deal. But Ryu just doesn't have the ability to invigorate my interest in a move set, which he dies by.

The only reason I'm giving him this much is that he makes it possible to give other third parties a chance to repeat.


Phoenix Wright Prediction - 1.95% - I think we can all agree that even 3 characters from the same company is pushing...

Nominations
New Palutena's Guidances X3
Anna (FE) X2