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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
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I read that. It's not clear enough for me. I'm still seeing people rating as if they're rating not getting K. Rool, Isaac, or Bandana Dee. Aside from that, ShinyRegice doesn't make it apparent whether he's talking about the RTC or the Smash Ballot.

It's about this thread's 3 most popular, though it does not specifically have to be K. Rool, Isaac or Dee if they are latter replaced. This does not count returning veterans.
I think it would have been better to just rate the chances of this thread's 3 most popular right now specifically. My opinion might change if another newcomer replaces one of the top 3 right now, and we aren't likely to rerate this concept if that does happen. Although, it's unlikely that any of the top 3 will get replaced anyway before DLC for Smash 4 is over with. I'll do my best with this one. It just feels unnecessary to me to rate a concept this way.
 
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Flavius

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Brash the Bear

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

He's totally getting in guys. There's no way Sakurai will say no.

Okay, seriously who comes up with this stuff. Double zeros.

None of the Top 3

Chance: 15%

While I thinks it's unlikely that all three won't make, it's definitely possible that any one of these three won't make it.

Want: 50%

To be honest I don't really care for K. Rool or Bandana Dee (gets shot). Although I do want Isaac to make it.
 

Chandeelure

Bandana Brigade Captain
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-Brash the Bear:
Hahahahaha.


Squidward Dee.jpg


Chances: 0%
Want: 0%



-None of the Top 3:
Chances: 10%
Want: 0%

-Nominations:
Rerate Magolor X5
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
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TCT~Phantom
Brash the bear
0% Chance
100% Want

None of the Top Three
0% Chance
0% Want

Nominating Pichu x 5
 

Zilexion

Smash Cadet
Joined
May 29, 2015
Messages
68
Brash the (Frickin') Bear:
Chance
- 0%
Want - 0%


No Top 3:
Chance - 20%
Want - 75%
Isaac would be nice, but I have no personal attachment to any other newcomers in the top 10 on RTC.

Predictions:
Captain Syrup - 4%
Pokemon Stadium - 15%


Nominations:
Validar (FE:A) x 3
Neku Sakuraba (TWEWY) x 2
 

Tikivoy

Smashing idol~
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Brash Bear:

Double hundreds.*


He has too many things going for him to rate him anything lower.

1) Bamco has experience with bears.
If Sakurai wanted to go for a first party character Namco could make easily, he would obviously go for Brash. Namco knows how to get bears working in a fighting game perfectly, having worked on the likes of Kuma and Panda.
The people at Namco would probably love working on Brash. In fact, judging by how much they love their own Kuma (he's in SFxT and PASBR!), the Namco devs must pester Sakurai daily on adding Brash in.

2) Moveset potential.

Of course a huge factor for a newcomer. We don’t have anyone comparable to Brash in the roster. He's huge, but still incredibly fast, so Sakurai would clearly see the potential in him.

3) Brash is comparable to near impossible newcomers.
It goes without saying, there are people voting for near impossible characters to join the battle.

Notable examples:

-Banjo and Kazooie. Visit Brash's support thread for a deep theory on this. (and a counter to the 2 big argument).

-Sanic. Has the need to go faster despite already being pretty fast (in Brash’s case, to beat his record). Can never happen due to only being a fan-made character.

-Shrek. He lives far, far away from others, has serious anger problems, and he has layers. Can never happen due to having to get rights from Dreamworks and various music companies for the Smash Mouth music on his potential stage.


I assure you, Sakurai would hate to let such votes go to waste, so he can instead count those votes toward the first-party Brash instead.

4) He’s potentially being hinted at.

Some K. Rool fans take his mii costume not as a deconfirmation, but as a hint that he’ll be a fighter. However, they all ignored the other costume in that pack:



Bear hat and Bear suit? This is no costume Sakurai randomly came up with, it clearly happened only because they can recycle the assets from another character: Brash.
Most likely the fur on the costume is taken from Brash's in game model, which means he'll have different fur colors for his color swaps.

In fact, on the Smash Bros site, and in the eshop, this costume appears above the K. Rool costume, again, hinting toward Brash.
Not to mention, the web’s initial reaction to the K. Rool costume was full of anger. I assure you that was expected because it’s also a hint toward Brash -->



Just give until Decembear for his inevitable reveal.

*Clarification: 200% want score. 0% chance.


Nomination:
General Klump x5.
 

~Krystal~

True American Heroine
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Brash the Bizare
Double zeroes.

No Top 3
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Nominate x5 Leon Powalski
 
Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
10,596
Brash the Bear
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

No Top 3
Chance: 10% (I'm betting that at least one of them will make it)
Want: 0% (K. Rool and Dee are my most wanted newcomers, don't really care about Isaac... also, not including any of these three would be a stupid decision)

Captain Syrup: 3%
Pokemon Stadium: 18%

Nominations: Kamek 10x
 

Zerp

Formerly "ZeroSoul"
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Brash the Bear:
Chances: 0.00000000000001%
Want: 2%
It would be hilarious, but at the same time it would definitely anger me.

No top 3 make it in:

(Please Note: I'm rating the current perceived top 3 (Dee, K. Rool, Isaac) since it feels impossible to predict this as a fluctuating concept that changes characters in and out, please understand)

Chances: 25% I think the combined chances of those 3 are pretty high, and if even one showes up, it would deconfrm this, so I think it would have a somewhat low chance.
Want: 0% This isn't just because I want Bandana Dee, this is more or less that the concept is pretty evil. Why should the fans, who finally get their say in who gets to be a character, be robbed of that choice? While no Bandana Dee definitely leaves a bitter taste in my mouth, and while I don't care about Rool or Isaac much, the idea of none of them is so much worse to me. I'd feel pretty upset that apparently Sakurai doesn't give a crap about his fanbase.

Predictions: Captain Syrup- 6% Pokemon stadium- 10%

Nominating: Rerate!Magolor x 5
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
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Still up Peach's dress.
Brash the ****ing meme
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

None of the top three get in:
Chance: 30%
Plucked from the air if I'm honest.

Want: 0%
Dumb choice not to include ANY of them. Whilst I personally couldn't give less of a damn one way or the other regarding K. Rool's fate (making me an oddity on Smashboards), I'm 100% behind Bandana Dee and my sister desperately wants Isaac so I want him if only for her.
 

LIQUID12A

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*10 extra nominations*

Today is a good day.

Brash the Meme

Double zeroes, I don't need to explain this. It's a fad.

None of the top 3

Chance: 20%
Want: Abstain

Only one of the top 3 is a character I want, though his fate is ambiguous. There's a chance of this happening, but small.

Predictions:

Syrup: 6%
Pokemon Stadium: 8%

Nominate: Frigate Orpheon x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
The Directory has been updated.

The Long Concept
Chance:
30%

I took the chance scores of King K. Rool, Isaac, and Bandana Dee (initially Wolf, but I guess he doesn't count) and I multiplied them together.
My result was about 10% of them happening together. Subtract it by 1 (or 100%) and we have about 90%. Since we have three characters I divided the number by 3 and I got about 30%
I agree with this number. I can see us realistically get one of the top three, not all of them. I still realistically think that we could get none of the top three to be honest.

Want: 0%
I want Bandana Dee and King K. Rool.

...Oh? And Brash the Bear? Double Zeroes. No explanation necessary.

Captain Syrup Prediction: 3.77%
Very unlikely.
Pokemon Stadium Prediction: 8.22%
With its music being on other stages, this seems unlikely.

Nominations: Heihachi 5x
 

RobinOnDrugs

Your Friendly Neighborhood Scavenger
Joined
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Messages
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#BRASH4SMASH

Double zeroes for Brash the Bear.

None of the top 3 being playable:

Chance: 25%

I can only see one of them making it at this point.

Want: I am abstain
 

The Light Music Club

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None of the top 3...
Well I guess I would say it's almost as likely as as not getting King K Rool, as I don't think we are getting Isaac or Bandana Dee...

Chance: 40%
Want: Well if we are getting only Isaac or Bandana Dee, then it would be 90% as there are many more other characters that I want. But since this includes no King K, I'll put it at a 50%
 
Joined
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Messages
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I don't understand the logic of the want rates of the concept of no K. Rool, Isaac and Dee. Some of you are giving the concept 40%+ want because you don't want one or two of them. I mean, if the concept means that none of them, not even the one(s) you want, will happen, why are some of you giving the concept over 0% in want? Do you actually (somewhat) want that the character(s) you want doesn't happen if that means that the character(s) you don't want/care doesn't happen either?

I'm not trying to start a flame war, I'm just curious.
 

loganhogan

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 22, 2011
Messages
816
Brash the fad: 0% Chance 0% Want

Ice Climber Bear > Brash

None of the top 3: 33% chance 50% want

I think at least one of them is going to make it, between the 3 I feel more secure about Bandana Dee.

X5 Isa Jo
 
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Laniv

Smash Champion
Joined
Apr 20, 2014
Messages
2,285
Brash the Bear oh jeez what

Chance: 100%
Ah, yes, Brash the Bear, the last character to join the shoo-ins, like Little Mac, or Palutena, or Miis...
...
...
...

Real Chance: 4%
...Okay he's got better chances than that other Rarebare.

Want: 70%


No K. Rool, Isaac or Bandanna Dee:

Chance: 40%


Abstain from Want:

Predictions for Captain Syrup: 3% Chance, 35% Want
Predictions for Pokemon Stadium: 16% Chance, 47% Want

Nominate Tom Nook x 5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Brash: double zeroes. Really, do I need to say more?

Concept: Either Sakurai is evil, or Smashboards doesn't want what the rest of the world does...
...This is interesting. We were so sure before that Mewtwo, Ridley, and K.Rool were going to be in since almost every person online supported at least one of them. It wasn't even conceivable that Nintendo would be so blind to the fanbase to exclude any of the three of them.

And they did. All of them.

What does this mean for DLC? We did finally get Mewtwo, so they were listening, and then Lucas and Roy popped by, both highly requested (moreso in Japan; Roy barely passed 50% want here). But our cries howls for Wolf have as yet gone unanswered, and if they know that K.Rool is requested, it seems odd for them to have released a Mii costume of a character they had planned, doubly so since they did it without explanation or fanfare.

So Nintendo is listening to the fans...assuming the fans are wanting the same things Sakurai wants. So if Sakurai doesn't want the top three here, we won't get them.

In an effort to get a numerical chance, I'll look at the top 3 newcomers chances as rated in this thread: King K. Rool - 53.35%, Isaac - 52.08%, and Bandanna Dee - 38.01%. This is what we said is the chance we will get them, so there is a 46.65%, 47.92%, 61.99% chance respectively of not getting them. The chance that all three would be out then would be:
0.4665 x 0.4792 x 0.6199 = 13.86%
...which seems likely enough.

Want: of course not, even though I only really support one of them, it'd be pretty terrible for Nintendo to **** on the fans. Again.

As a thought experiment, the top is Wolf, a veteran, at 79.60%. If we looked at top 3 wanted overall, the chance is now 4.56%, which equates to Corrin's chance score. That means that as a community, we've decided Ridley is more likely to be DLC (5.64%) than we are likely to get none of the top three wanted: Wolf, K.Rool, and Isaac. But we were confident before that we'd get the big three in...and that didn't go well.

Still, I hope we get all of them. Including Ridley.
Syrup Prediction: 1.3%
Pokemon Stadium Prediction: 12.5%

Nom: Ivy x5
 

BandanaWaddleDee

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Brash the Bear
Double zeroes.

None of the top 3 getting in
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%
Bandana Dee and Isaac not getting in? Please no. King K. Rool I'm fine without

Syrup prediction: 2.73% (Insert breakfast joke here)
Pokémon Stadium prediction: 9.79%

Nominations:
Omanyte x3
Rerate Jibanyan x1
Endou Mamoru x1
 

MacDaddyNook

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 24, 2015
Messages
1,197
Brash the Bear's Chance: 0%
A joke character like this isn't seriously considered and simply will not make it in.

Brash the Bear's Want: 0%
The joke isn't funny and I really do ont want to see minor NPC characters make it in.

----------

No Top Wanted Newcomer Making It In's Chance: 10%
I think this would create bad press for Nintendo and couple possibly torpedo trust in their DLC. But Sakurai is Sakurai, and he could pick a moderately well supported character slightly down the list.

No Top Wanted Newcomer Making It In's Want: Abstain
I'm not strongly connected to the newcomer frontrunners, so I am mostly indifferent as long as DLC isn't wasted on clones.
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
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Brash the Friggin' Bear:
Chance: 0%
Bear-y low chances indeed.

Want: 0%
Him getting in would be un-bear-able. :awesome:
None of the Top 3 wanted newcomers making it in:
Chance: 10.5%
For reference, I gave Bandana Dee a 40%, K. Rool a 50% and Isaac a 65% chance. So 1 - (0.60 × 0.50 × 0.35) = 0.105 = 10.5%

Want: 0%
Only someone who wants to watch the world burn would give this a high want score.​
 
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ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
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France
Brash: already rated

None of the top 3 wanted newcomers chances: 40.78%
Looking at the current top 3 of want: King K. Rool, Isaac, and Bandanna Dee, then determining their chances (note those chances scores are my personal opinions on these characters):
> King K. Rool: 30% (the Mii costume with ambiguous meaning, though after the Ridley denial I prefer to remain pessimistic about his chances);
> Isaac: 19.45% (I'm honestly pessimistic about Nintendo valuing Golden Sun as a Smash worthy IP, plus support is noticeably more mild in Japan for what I've read);
> Bandanna Dee: 33% (not much specifically against him, though I'm not sure on how he would be prioritized for DLC)
Yeah those chances scores aren't very high, but I'm never going to consider any character more likely than not at this point unless it's Wolf anyway.
Considering their chances are fully independent, then the chances of none of them happening: 70%×67%*80.55%=37.78% (rounded up)
Then I added an arbitrary 3% in order to take into account a potential Bandanna Dee replacement in the top 3 (because I doubt Isaac and especially King K. Rool are going to quit the top 3 unless they're confirmed), mostly if Ridley takes the number 3 spot in the future. Because I have pretty much zero faith in Ridley happening.

None of the top 3 wanted newcomers want: 0%
This would be a great disappointment if this actually happened. King K. Rool is the plausible newcomer I'm rooting for the most so the fact he's in this top 3 is enough to give this concept a flat zero in want. Isaac and Bandanna Dee I'm fine either way, though I understand what makes them cool potential choices for Smash, and I don't dislike them, so I can't justify giving this higher than a flat zero.

-----

Captain Syrup prediction: 1.89%
Smash is well known to neglect Wario Land, so I expect a very low score.

Pokemon stadium prediction: 17.33%
Its musics are already used on other stages...

Nominating:
(Rerate) Returning fighters: Squirtle and Ivysaur x5
 
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Cane Seven

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jul 30, 2015
Messages
32
Brash the Bear:
Chance: 0%.
Want: 0%

None of the Top 3:
One of the three will probably make it in, but it's not guaranteed.

Chance: 75%

Want: 15%






 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
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Jun 10, 2014
Messages
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Location
Somewhere Out There
Brash The Friggin' Bear
Chance: 0%
Appeared in as many games as Shovel Knight and Geno but he's impossible.

Want: 60%
Which is a shame because his potential never stops.
He can use his rage, his bear-like attacks, his strong arms, his Brother Bears props and can be an adequate replacement for Banjo when coupled with his own Big Bird:

Brash and Banana Bird Beat The Competition!



None of the Top 3 Appears:
Chance: 20%

Want: 50%
Eeh I can live without.

Cap'n Syrup: 3.2%
Poké Stadium: 13.4%

Pikachu Libre representation x5
 

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
Premium
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Messages
1,200
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Florida
Brash the Bear
Chance: 0.4%
Abstain from explanation. I'll give the RTC's joke character a small chance of 0.4%.
Don't feel the need to explain myself here...

Want: 0.2%
Abstain from explanation.


None of Top Three Wanted Newcomers Become Playable
Chance: 83%
No, I'm not trying to give a controversial rating for the sake of giving it. I've come back to rate every single character everyday since this thread opened back in April. I take my ratings and opinions seriously and just want to speculate. That being said, I think it's pretty likely that we won't see this thread's top three most wanted newcomers become DLC (K. Rool, Isaac, and Bandana Dee as it stands). I'm way more pessimistic about these character's chances because I tend to find quite a bit wrong with them which very well might keep them from becoming playable. Problems that many people on Smashboards overlook or just outright ignore. People also tend to have the mindset that Sakurai wouldn't dare not make at least one of them playable for DLC because of popularity. That argument didn't help when Ridley, K. Rool, and Mewtwo were basically the top three most wanted characters before the game came out. Yeah, Mewtwo was added as DLC. The problem with that is Sakurai wasn't planning on DLC until late in the game's development, so Mewtwo wasn't planned to be in the game from the get go. The way I see it, Sakurai had no problems not including the top three most wanted characters back when first deciding the roster. Nothing to me suggests that he wouldn't do the same thing again for DLC. I'll go ahead and give this unplayable top three concept a rating of 83%.
I really don't think it matters all that much to Sakurai in the end...

Want: 50%
I honestly don't care either way.
 

BKupa666

Barnacled Boss
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Toxic Tower
Brash the Bear:

Chance - 25%
This is a suggestion box, not a ballot, therefore if Sakurai sees one unique vote he really likes for Brash the Bear, a fast unique bear rep who fights by pounding his fists on desktops and knocking down trees, he could override thousands of votes for other characters and put him in.

Want - 100%
Because he'll get angry at me if I put anything less.

None of the Top Three Getting In:

Chance - 10%
If we were rating this for the top three vote-getters on the whole, I'd rate much higher, since it's likely that the top will be comprised of pipe dreams like indies and Banjo, plus memes. However, RTC's top three is comprised of newcomers who are scoring highly AND have nothing holding them back from a production standpoint. This is basically asking "Will be ballot be remotely valid and pursue fan-service at all," which, until I can no longer do so, I'm going to take Sakurai at his word here and assume that we will indeed get at least one of the characters we all want.

Want: 0%
Do I want all of K. Rool, Isaac and Bandana Dee to not be playable? Hell no, probably wouldn't consider buying the newcomer DLC at all if they all missed out.

Captain Syrup Prediction: 6.5%
Pokemon Stadium Prediction: 7.25%

Nominate Boss Battles Mode x5
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
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Messages
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Location
Somewhere Out There
Brash the Bear:

Chance - 25%
This is a suggestion box, not a ballot, therefore if Sakurai sees one unique vote he really likes for Brash the Bear, a fast unique bear rep who fights by pounding his fists on desktops and knocking down trees, he could override thousands of votes for other characters and put him in.

Want - 100%
Because he'll get angry at me if I put anything less.

None of the Top Three Getting In:

Chance - 10%
If we were rating this for the top three vote-getters on the whole, I'd rate much higher, since it's likely that the top will be comprised of pipe dreams like indies and Banjo, plus memes. However, RTC's top three is comprised of newcomers who are scoring highly AND have nothing holding them back from a production standpoint. This is basically asking "Will be ballot be remotely valid and pursue fan-service at all," which, until I can no longer do so, I'm going to take Sakurai at his word here and assume that we will indeed get at least one of the characters we all want.

Want: 0%
Do I want all of K. Rool, Isaac and Bandana Dee to not be playable? Hell no, probably wouldn't consider buying the newcomer DLC at all if they all missed out.

Captain Syrup Prediction: 6.5%
Pokemon Stadium Prediction: 7.25%

Nominate Boss Battles Mode x5
On top of that, all casuals are voting for Brash!
 

IceBreakerXY

Universal Champion
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Jul 29, 2014
Messages
3,291
Location
Johto
brash the bear:Double Zero

None of the Top Three Getting In:

change:60%

I personally feel that we overestimate characters changes.I mean k rool is a mii costume,Isaac is barely known outside smashboards,4 chan, and gamefaqs and many people do see bandanna dee as just a waddle dee.And i highly doubt isaac is in the top ten of ballot shame because he's my most wanted character but that's probably the case he just isn't that will known.If anything the most likely of the 3 to be added to smash would probably be bandanna dee only because he's popular both here and in Japan and add a touch of sakurai bias even than sakurai may just think of him as some pointless waddle dee.And K rool to me is deconfirmed due to mii cosutme so wont touch on him.So yeah i highly believe that's there a change none of the "top 3" will be added to smash

want:20%
I dont that want they all deserve to be in sooner or later
 
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Parallel_Falchion

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,336
None of the top 3 wanted make it in:
Chance - 75%
I don't think any of these three will make it in. K. Rool is already out as far as I'm concerned, Isaac is unlikely for a multitude of reasons, and Bandana Dee doesn't seem ultimately known, popular, or requested enough to make it in yet.

Want - 40%
I'm pretty indifferent to all three of these, but since K. Rool and Isaac at least are pretty popular in most areas of the web-based fandom, it would be nice if at least one could make it in.

Brash:
Who?
 

kiteinthesky

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 15, 2013
Messages
902
I'm not really one for chances, but I'm bored, so what the hell.

Brash the Bear

Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

Oddly enough I remember this guy from DKC3. I don't know what value he'd add to Smash if he got in and I honestly never cared for him or most of the characters from DKC3. That's the only reason why I'm voting 0% for chances. I don't actually know.

None of the top 3 getting in

Chances: 99%
Want: 0%

Despite my misgivings about "chances" I genuinely have the sinking feeling that none of the popular characters people have been voting for will actually make it as DLC. I genuinely feel as though we'll mostly get veterans at this point and someone else Sakurai wants but no one else does. This is just my personal feeling, I have no evidence to base this on and I truly hope I'm wrong, but I just can't shake this hunch I have that this will happen.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Brash the Bear: DOUBLE ZEROES.

Oh god the feels so nice. Unfortunately i can't give the same score to the next concept.......

None of the Top 3 become playable:
Chance: Abstain
I don't feel i can give a fair rating to this.

Want:0%
Look at my signature for a sec.

While i support over 10 different characters, Isaac and K.Rool are at a whole different level of support. All my top 10-5 are mostly just afterthoughts and i don't have a strong desire for them as i do with Isaac and K.Rool. (also Bandanna Dee not making it in would make me a little upset, though not as much as Isaac and K.Rool's exclusion.....)

Unless you give me Simon Belmont in exchange of them, then we will talk.
------------------------------------------------
Noms:
Paper Mario X5
 

memoryman3

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memoryman3
Just as I thought I was done....





He doesn't seem too happy with this rating, so to show my affection I will give him a...

45% Want Rating

None of top three making it: ABSTAIN.

I nominate Brash's true successor Bluster Kong x5


You know what I mean.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Brash
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

None of the top 3
Chance: 37.8% - 100 x 0.9 (King) x 0.7 (Dee) x 0.6 (Isaac)
Want: 0%

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
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Just as I thought I was done....





He doesn't seem too happy with this rating, so to show my affection I will give him a...

45% Want Rating

None of top three making it: ABSTAIN.

I nominate Brash's true successor Bluster Kong x5


You know what I mean.
@Cactaceae you are currently being nominated for Smash. We all know that you'll have a better chance than Brash since he lacks the sexy factor you have.
 
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colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
BRASH
PRETTY MUCH BKUPA666'S RATING DIVIDED BY THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO VOTED: 0.79%
WANT: 14.55%

NONE OF OUR TOP THREE MOST WANTED NEWCOMERS MAKE IT IN
CHANCE: 32.98%
WANT: 26.67%

Next up we're rating Captain Syrup from Wario Land and the concept of us getting Melee's Pokemon Stadium. Also please predict what score Fiora from Xenoblade and T-Rex from Fossil Fighter will get tomorrow.
 
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