Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[CometX-ing]

That's just cherrypicking to construe the situation into something that works against Snake. Suppose Nintendo doesn't wanna associate with Konami for being bad employers, and the licensing talks came before that news came to light as you say. Why continue to go ahead using Konami IPs if news came to light that Konami is so horrible? Why wouldn't Nintendo drop out of this deal if such a thing mattered to them so much? Why would they purposely continue with this deal, but not with Snake (who for all we know, could've also been talked about licensing around the same time)?

And that's all assuming they even have this moral dilemma to begin with. Two major corporations don't have much reason to care how the other internally operates.

What part of what I said was cherry picked? I made assumptions based off of the information I was able to find.

Like I said, the deal could have been in the works for a while, closing a deal that could have taken a long time to come to could seem like a bad idea to them, not to mention that they would at least be making money on with the games that could come from the deal. Nintendo really wouldn't get much out of bringing Snake back since there is not a MGS game on Nintendo platforms. And before you say anything, Snake's inclusion was a favor for a friend and Capcom and Nintendo have strong ties. With Konami basically leaving gaming I doubt that that IP deal really has much baring on the companies standing with Nintendo.

Look I'm not saying that cause of Konami's actions that there is no way Snake would return and anyone who says otherwise is wrong. For all I know Nintendo couldn't give a damn about what Konami is doing, but you trying to act like the current events regarding Konami aren't a reason to doubt Snakes return just seems (for lack of a better word) ignorant.

 

[FunAtParties]

Snake
Chance: 15%
It's too low you say? I don't think so, the guy pretty much made it in because of Sakurai and Kojima's bromance, seeing that Kojima has nothing to do with the character anymore, you can throw that reason out the window. So what else, popularity? Sure he's popular, some people even claim that he's the most popular; but there are plenty of other popular characters that Nintendo doesn't have to bend over backwards for, just to get in the game. At the end of the day, he's a third party character, for a third party company that Nintendo doesn't have great connections with after all.

What he does have going for him though is, once again he's popular (which, despite everything doesn't mean nothing), and two, he's a vet. Vets are (and don't quote me on this, it's just something I heard) all in all, easier to bring back, so he's got that going for him, but really that's it.

Want:0%
I remember when Snake was first announced for Super Smash Bros. Brawl, I remember instantly wanting the game just a little bit less that day. I've never liked him, and unlike other people the didn't like him before but learned to like him, I never liked his move set either. All that said, I don't hate him anymore, I just wouldn't be happy seeing him for DLC. So far, I'm 1 for 4 for DLC, and I can really use a win, Snake is not that character.

Shantae
Chance: 20%
She's really popular, not Snake popular, per say, but a lot more popular than I'd expect any indie character to be. "So why is her chances higher than Snake's then?" I bet you're saying. Well for me, it's because Wayforward is actually, y'know Nintendo-friendly, and I think that goes a little farther than Nintendo promoting another character that's new game ISN'T coming out for their console. Shantae is a fairly realistic choice.

Want: 100%
I'd like to see her, she's not like a lot of the other top choices. She's not as well known, she's a little unconventional, and yet she's getting plenty of support. I love the support she's getting, put me firmly on the bandwagon. Shantae 4 Sm4sh!

New Smash Tour Content:0%
I seriously doubt it.
Pirate Ship Stage: Depends on K.Rool for most probably hmmm..... 12%

 

[War Anvil]

View attachment 68734



Are you sure that you aren't LucasMucas from Gamefaqs?

Nah, Shantae isn't my waifu. Misty is.

Spoiler

Seriously though, I hope Misty gets at least a trophy appearance again.

 

[Aetheri]

Pirate Ship Stage: Depends on K.Rool for most probably hmmm..... 12%

Not that ship...this one...


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Abstaining on Snake because I've already rated him twice...if you're really curious @XenoBrawler610 has a nice directory at the bottom of the first page for those who really want to see...

----

!Rerate: Shantae

Previous Rating:

Chance: 8%
Some peeps are bit generous I find...she's does however have a few things going for her; one, she probably has one of best possibilities for a workable moveset in Smash (better than most Nintendo characters I find) ! Seriously, riding a cannon for a recovery, swords, pirate guns, fireballs, smacking things with her hair, and shape shifting into several animals...
Her games have been for the most part Nintendo exclusives so there's no doubt the folks at Nintendo know who she is at the very least. And having the Metroidvania style gaming which is comparable to several Nintendo games such as DKC, Metroid, and Zelda. She's got a style that definitely fits in Smash. I know her attire may seem like an issue with Tharja's trophy being removed from the game and all, but Tharja's design has a slightly more 'cheeky' look to it (also consider Shantae's games are rated E, Fire Emblem is T rated)(and ZSS and Shulk alts, less naw 4get)
She's got a really likable personality (her cute looks help as well) that may very well be appealing to japanese audiences, that may indeed give her the boost that she needs.
On top of everything Wayforward is on board and for any third party character that is pretty big!
On the downside....here we go....She's not an official Nintendo character, not really a big deal when you consider Sonic, Snake, Pacman, and Megaman, but compared to them she doesn't really have the same impact on the gaming world...To top it off she's developed by American developers, I feel like this may be a big hindrance as Sakurai seems to lean towards characters and franchises that are more popular in Japan than Internationally (hence the inclusion of Fire Emblem characters in melee and Lucas) and those series who are more popular internationally tend to get left in the wayside (Metroid is a 'prime' example)...It really comes down to whether or not Sakurai recognizes the appeal and possible benefits in adding Shantae and whether or not it will be worth it in the end, but her popularity is definitely enough for her to get noticed I feel...
The game does need some international representation...but does Sakurai agree? She's got some points going for her for sure, more than the points against her but I feel those points against her are BIG POINTS and may indeed hurt her chances in the long run (and given Sakurai's track record) I'm not entirely optimistic....

Want: 100%
Me a few weeks ago: '. . .who?'
Me now: 'OMGWTFBBQ! She needs to be in Smash RIGHT NOW!!!!'
...ahem...srry...
One thing is for sure I think she definitely gets a lot of attention just from all the Ballot hype...I mean I noticed her! (not that I'm anybody important or anything but, point still stands) I may pick up one of her games if I get the opportunity (I mean a Metroid and Zelda inspired game, yes plz!!!)...Also her moveset potential is ridiculous...I have a hard time thinking of the best moveset for her as she's got so much versatility...She's a character that can definitely benefit with the increased exposure from Smash as other games seem to surge in popularity as seen in Earthbound and Fire Emblem...Her quirkiness and charming personality without a doubt will get the attention of a Japanese audience...I find her being unlikely with the whole US Indie character not a world renown icon thing going, but I'd definitely like to see it happen...

Chance: 10%
She gets a verrrrry...slight boost, because she's still pretty relevant in the speculation scene...while other popular characters seemed to have faded away within the first couple of months of the Ballot...In my Top 10 DLC Characters Thread (Link in my signature selfpromotion) she is currently ranked 11th overall just barely out of the Top 10 so the smash boards community is still showing interest at the very least, of course the smash boards community is just a small part of the overall Smash community but that still says something...however...

She's still Third Party, and an Indie to boot...I haven't even heard of her before the Smash ballot was announced and the same can be said for the other Indies floating around here and there...that doesn't really bode well if she's that much of an obscure character in the grand scheme of things...perhaps I might be a bit generous with my rating...BUT...with all the speculation she's been involved with and fake leaks and the strong push by Wayforward, as well as their decent relationship with Nintendo; has me thinking, she might be a bit of a dark horse in this race...

----

Want: 85%
perhaps I was overzealous the first time around, but she's still one of those characters I'd actually like to see...she's a bit of an underdog given her whole Indie status, but she's got more going for her than other Indies...however My Top 4 still remain my Top 4 and Shantae isn't apart of them, while Wolf could very well hold my number 5 spot (at least until he gets confirmed....eventually)

----

Nominations:
!Rerate: Impa x5

 

[FunAtParties]

Not that ship...this one...


----

Well derp.

 

[Delzethin]

You get a rerate! You get a rerate! EVERYONE GETS A RERATE!

-♪-

Third Rating: Snake

Chance: 20% -> 15% -> 15%
The further along we go, the worse Snake's situation is getting. Now we've been getting reports of how utterly dysfunctional Konami has become. They're doing everything they can to distance themselves from Hideo Kojima and all he stands for...and even though I've seen a few people act like that doesn't matter, it certainly does. It was Hideo Kojima who talked Sakurai into getting Snake into Smash, and when Sakurai went through with it, it was mainly for the sake of his long time friend. With the increasingly abusive attitude Konami is showing, what reason would Sakurai have to want to collaborate with them?

Now, I'm also heard ideas of how Nintendo may just go over Sakurai's head without asking him. While that could happen...it'd be out of character for a company that's always shown more heart than many other developers like them. If Sakurai had no intention of wanting to work with Konami...I seriously doubt they'd force him to. That just isn't like them.

Veteran status and moderate-to-moderately-high support does not make a character a lock. With so many issues going on in the background, Snake's chances are lower than ever. Not even the world's greatest soldier can sneak his way out of this one without a serious fight.

Want: 30% -> 30% -> 30%

On one hand, he had an original moveset. On the other, though, he kinda stuck out like a sore thumb in Brawl. He could be worked a little to fit better in Smash's environment, but to be honest I don't care a whole lot for the guy.

...But if they do bring Snake back, for the love of all that is good and holy, fix those tilts!

Rerate: Shantae

Chance: 3.5% -> 10%
Okay, maybe I undersold her before...but I still don't think she has a very significant chance. Third party characters have been held to some strict standards so far, with all five in Smash's history being major icons. It's been a significant, recurring thing that we've seen no sign of them breaking. So for a lower end indie character who just happens to have the spotlight because of how eager her patron company has been with promoting her? I don't see how it overcomes the fact that she doesn't measure up to the big names.

There's...not a whole lot that can overcome that right now. Way Forward's over-zealousness can't compensate for it. Her surprisingly decent moveset potential--though hampered by how limited her transformations are allowed to be--can't either.

Perhaps she could gain more prominence over time. Getting her games released worldwide would definitely help with that. Maybe when Smash 5 rolls around, things could be different, but for now, Shantae just wouldn't fit right in the Smash Bros. list of all stars, and because of that, I have serious doubts about her chances.

If someone ever made an indie counterpart to Smash, on the other hand...

Want: Abstain -> Abstain
Still haven't had the chance to play any of her games. Maybe one of these days I'll have some cash to throw around...


Prediction for the Concept of Additional Smash Tour Content: 14.75%
Little precedent for it...and Smash Tour is hated so much that I doubt many people will show it mercy.

Pirate Ship Stage Prediction: 22.50%
A modestly popular Brawl stage. I bet we'll see a little talk involving Tetra and Toon Zelda based around this one.


Nominations: Golden Sun Stage x5

 

[Nat Perry]

Shantae: 0%. No idea why people think she has a chance. She has nowhere near the iconic/classic/retro status that Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, and Ryu possess. She's just...way out there. From left field.

Snake: 25%. This is due to his past history with Smash and popularity.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

We're really rating Snake again? Ok, it's showtime.

Snake's Chance: 60%
The whole Konami issue is no longer such as Nintendo and Konami have proven they are willing and can work together thanks to the Hudson license. So, despite the current drama, if Nintendo wanted to get the rights to Snake, there is really nothing standing in their way.

So with that hurdle cleared, we really only have whether Nintendo wants him or not to be in his way. Thankfully for him, the fans have spoken and he is one of the, if not the, most wanted characters worldwide. While the ballot is only a suggestion box, having so many people back him shows there is a strong demand for him. This is essential for the concept for DLC as each character has to be sold individually on their own merits, so popularity, while not the end-all, does play a bigger role than in choosing process for the base game.

Snake is also a veteran, which means his assets from the previous game can be ported over. This means significantly lower development time and, more importantly, development cost. Even a first-party newcomer would need the team to design, program and animate from scratch. With characters like Snake and Wolf, all of that is done, so they would simply need a little tweaking and they'd be good to go.

From a business/profit standpoint, Snake's relatively low development cost and high consumer demand should be good incentive for Nintendo to bring him back. Only time will tell if they want to take this opportunity.

Snake's Want: 100%
Snake is my absolute without-a-doubt most wanted character. I'd literally trade any character to get him back. His playstyle is like no other and it's just too darn fun to clutter the stage with exploding traps. Shadow Moses is also a favorite stage too, I hope if he makes it back, he brings the stage with him.

----------

Shantae's Chance: 10%
I find it strange that Wayforward is still considered indie at this point, after working on big names like Contra, Double Dragon and DuckTales. Either way, Shantae is a relatively small series that has seen some success. Debuting on the Game Boy Color, she isn't exactly too new like Shovel Knight. Her company is gung ho on getting her into the game, so negotiations between them and Nintendo should go pretty smoothly.

Again, this really boils down to whether Nintendo wants to work with them. She has strong support in the west, but is pretty much unheard of in Japan, which will undoubtedly hurt her chance. Couple that with her not being an big-name icon, unlike all third party characters who appeared in Smash Bros, and she might be a riskier option for DLC. Being a newcomer, she'd also have the higher development time/cost, which isn't a death sentence, but still isn't helpful either. In the end, it'll be up to Nintendo.

Shantae's Want: 80%
I'm not the most familiar with her series, but I've liked what I played so far. The Dance Magic could be a pretty fun mechanic, and I'd enjoy it if for no other reason than to make a David Bowie reference.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

First Snake Chance Rating: 35%
Second Snake Chance Rating: 20%
Current Snake Chance Rating: 23%

Original want rating: 50%
Second want rating: 50%
Current want rating: 55%

Part of me wants to see Snake return, if only for "Calling for the Night" (Which I'm listening to right now) and some of the memorable themes like "Encounter" or for to have his fans satisfied. Another part of me is hard to say, be it the situation regarding Konami's work ethics, or that I can probably do without him. But there is one thing I can say for sure about Snake - his legacy as the first third party character ever in Smash Bros is unforgettable, and I'd like to see him come back if just for that, otherwise this soldier has done the best he could.

Shantae original chance: 10%
Current Chance: 10%

Original want: 54%
Current want: 30%
I've scaled it back since it seems everyone on Smashboards hates the idea of indies becoming their own characters. And if anything, perhaps Shantae and Shovel Knight would be characters I'd rather see as Mii Costumes, as a way to please their fans while also making sure to appeal to the main frontrunners. That's my final stance on Shantae - as fun as she may be and could provide a fun play style in Smash Bros, I think a Mii Costume as a tribute to her would be fine enough. And if that's the case, and WayForward continue to stay faithful to Nintendo, then I think she could be considered as a very possible choice for an Indie character for future Smash Bros titles. Until then, perhaps a Mii Costume would be the best fate for her.

Nominate: Banjo-Kazooie rerate: X5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Snake chances: abstain
Snake want: 60%

I don't have much to say here, so let's move on.

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Shantae chances: 0.1%
I'm sorry but for my standards she's borderline ineligible. I'll not disagree with the fact she's a standing-out "indie" character in some way, but the arguments I've seen for her are either generic ("she would be so unique!"), overrated ("she has history with Nintendo!") or theorical ("she deserves exposure!"), and fail to convince me that she has the strength to overcome the fact she is still third-party, which is always going to be a huge deal for any contender. Sure, she has "history with Nintendo", but the history she has with Nintendo is... appearing in Nintendo platforms, but not much else beyond that, whereas the third-party characters we currently have in Smash had major influence on Nintendo beyond having their games on Nintendo platforms. There's also the "indie representative" thing, and I agree that indies altogether had some sizable influence on modern Nintendo, but that doesn't mean we need one in Smash... I mean, third-party characters are in Smash because they individually stand out, not because "we need third-party reps in Smash because third-parties had a huge influence on Nintendo", and while I suppose Shantae may stand out as an "indie" character, telling that makes her Smash material is a huge stretch...

The success she had on Nintendo success had been moderate at best in the grand scheme of things, and I really can't see her getting in until Smash becomes open to third-party characters being chosen willy-nilly or if for whatever reason Sakurai is willing to accept her as an exception. Though for what I believe Ken Sugimori likes her games, so I suppose he could put to us another Snake situation, especially if we consider that Shantae has a decent following online and some notable ballot support. But don't forget that part of the appeal of Snake was to add something completely unprecedented in Smash at the time when people thought third-parties were ineligible period, not to mention Metal Gear has much more fame as a game series, so the cases aren't exactly similar.

However if Shantae somehow gets revealed as a DLC newcomer in the future, feel free to quote this chances explanation, followed by a bunch of trollfaces in your post.

Shantae want: 0%
I almost wanted to give her a 100% disapproval like I did with Azura, Corrin, Lana, and the concept of a SMTxFE character, but at least she wouldn't be really worse than a Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor or a Call of Duty soldier as a third-party character (not that any of those two are more likely than her, though as much as they would be terrible additions I don't imagine myself giving them 100% disapproval *laughs*), so I decided against it. But still, I've reached a point we're I'm getting tired of hearing her name shoved in every speculation related discussion. Actually it amazes me how a character who was such a nobody in Smash speculation (seriously, I've almost never seen her mentioned as a choice for Smash prior to the ballot thing and her support thread from what I remember only had a few hundred replies) reached the point where she's now taken very seriously as a contender by the community. I think the arguments in her favor are overestimated, and I don't see what makes Shantae of all characters that special among third-parties series which had at least some moderate success on Nintendo platforms. If she got in it would wide open the floodgates for third-party characters being chosen willy-nilly, which is something I would rather not see.

I don't want to hate on her or the series itself (though I'm not really interested either way), but I don't think Shantae is Smash material, she just thematically doesn't fit, and I would be really disappointed if what the ballot gave us is an obscure third-party who only started to become a hot topic in Smash related discussions when it was revealed in the first place. If I want third-party characters in Smash I want them to be high profile characters who feel like something exceptional justified by their star power and legacy, not some relative nobody who is looking for exposure as a way to make their own series grow. And besides, we've already got a much more notable third-party 2D action platformer hero with MUH MOVESET POTENTIAL and a MUH SO UNIQUE moveset (guess who it is?) and I don't really want another.

If anything Shantae is cameo material similar to CommanderVideo. But not playable material. Not to mention there's another platformer female contender who fights with her air and could even have animals in her moveset to an extent, and is an actual Nintendo character, a much more well-known one for that matter.

(I think in the future I should put a link to this post whenever we will be rating third-party characters who I think are nowhere near my third-party standards for Smash. That sounds like a good idea.)

-----

New Smash Tour contents prediction: 2.40%
Apparently upgrading specific already existing game modes isn't a priority for Sakurai's team, plus this mode is overall disliked.

Pirate Ship prediction: 32.49%
One of the most popular Brawl stages which didn't return, but a lot of its musics were given to Skyloft and Temple, so it may be iffy.

Nominating:
Concept: none of the top 3 wanted newcomers x3
And since I've mentioned her in my want score explanation, I'll be nice and hive her two nominations today:
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Dixie Kong x2

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Snake the 3rd seriously I'm getting real tired of rating him over and over again

Chance: 30%

Want: 30%

Shantae

Chance: 10%

Want: 0%

Predictions: Smash tour content 1%

Predictions: Pirate ship 15%

Nominations: Sturm X5.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Snake
Chance: 10%
A year ago, this score would be a lot higher. I just think if Snake were to be in this game at all, he would have been in the base game. Additionally, I don't think we'll be getting any more third party characters or veterans aside from Wolf, and he's both.

Want: 55%
Largely neutral, but he was a cool addition to the roster and it was sad to see him go.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
It could happen...but I would be surprised.

Want: 55%
Again, largely neutral, but she would be a pretty cool addition to the roster.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

All those overinflated scores for Shantae...

Snake
Chance: 10% (Konami)
Want: 30% (I don't really care)

Shantae
Chance: 3%
Want: 0%

Additional Smash Tour content prediction: 7%
Pirate Ship prediction: 24%

Nominations: Cranky Kong 5x
EDIT: Kamek 5x

 

[Nonno Umby]

Shantae
Chance: 40%
She is from an indie developer which as always been loyal to Nintendo since the beginning 20 years ago. If Nintendo is willing to put an indie rep (which could happen, since they even made a Commander Video trophy for showing their relation with indies), Shanyae would be the perfect candidate. Sadly, I don't that we will see an indie rep in Smash 4 (but maybe in Smash 5...).
Plus she feels like a Nintendo character, even more than Banjo.

Want: 99%
Cool character, cool design, cool moveset, cool music...everyhing is cool about her. There is only one character above her, and it is...

Solid Snake

Chance: 90%
Let me explain it very clearly:
>One of the most wanted characters.
>Veteran, easy to develop and implement.
>He is TP, true, but Nintendo have confirmed that TP are eligible with the Ballot.
>Legally cheaper to have, since it is necessary just an extension of Brawl' s Snake license.
>Ninteno and Konami have recently started a partnership for the Hundson IP. This shows that they are fine with working togheter, so why not licesing Snake for Smash?
>Kojima leaving isn't a problem. The creator of Sonic was the reason Sonic was almost in Melee, but he left SEGA way before Brawl's development even started. Plus, Kojima still wants Snake in Smash.
>Veterans are never forgotten, and Sakurai hates to cut characters. are here for a reason.
>"He doesn't fit"/"His most recent game isn't on Nintendo"/"He is too realistic" confirmed that those arguments are useless.

Now show me some REAL REASONS (not just "Konami is a mess" or "Kojima is leaving") for say that Snake, an extremely popular request which is easier to develop and cheaper than most Newcomers (both TP and not), isn't going to return.

Want: 100%.
Most unique addition in Brawl, and maybe in the whole series, while being extremely fun to play as. Plus he is just as iconic as the other TP.

 

[gb7zone7]

Snake
Chance: 15%
It would be much higher if Konami didn't have such an obsession with erotic pachinko machines. Then again the ballot is about fanservice.
Fanservice is fanservice.

Want: 50%
I'd be fine with him again. If he doesn't show up, I can just go back to Project M.

Shantae
Chances: 25%
She has gotten a significant boost in popularity since the ballot started, it's surely vocal in the West. Her fanbase in Japan is small though.

I feel if Nintendo did put a Nindie into Smash, it would put the Nindie scene on the spotlight and might encourage more indie developers to make games for the systems with more people going into the eshop just for those titles.

Want: 100%
Yeah, not a big surprise. I really love the series and I do hope people take a look into the latest title during/after the ballot and see what it's all about.

Smash Tour Content: 5%
Yeesh...
Pirate Ship: 35%
Favorite of mine from brawl. Not sure how everyone else feels though.

 

[NintenRob]

Snake
Chance 10%
While a veteran, Konami is in a bit of a mess
Want 100%
Veteran

Shantae
Chance 0%
Third party indie who has basically no Japanese support
Want 10%
She has a pretty cool design

Predictions
Pirate ship 16%
Smash tour update 5%

Nominate offline tourney x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I will say one thing.

Who's to say that Sakurai and/or Kojima will be so utterly offended and hurt that they couldn't come to a business understanding with people they don't like?

Not everyone is so easily offended as us westerners. Even if Kojima is deeply hurt, I doubt that a man of his caliber would be so petty to get angry at Sakurai for wanting to put Snake (A character he created) back in Smash.

Cooperate shenanigans are a potential problem, but I highly doubt they would come from Sakurai's or Kojima's spite.

I also doubt that Nintendo would be unwilling to compromise with Konami due to controversy. Nintendo has controversy of their own.

Business is business. "Ethics" are probably less of an issue than people actually think. They won't cut all ties.

What Konami is doing is deplorable, but is anyone actually gonna look down at Nintendo for making a business deal?

Have we become that petty?

 

[Chromfirmed]

Hi!

My votes are as follows, though my reasoning will be like the others, I prefer just another character.

Snake
Chance: 25%
He may have a small opportunity and if the public has pretty voted for him, he can enter Smash again.

Want: 15%
He isn't a character that I like him too, but if Snake returns with his appearance in Metal Gear V, can I think of buying it.

Shantae
Chances: 20%
I think even if she has many votes, her chances are rather slim, I doubt there's another character from another company. Surely in Smash 5, she is more likely.

Want: 5%
He didn't know the character, I don't like your games too, so I have my reasons. Shantae could be a good character, but at the moment I don't need her.

Nominate: Chrom x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Abstain on Snake, aside from a Solid 70% want
I've fallen in love with trapping playstyles this time around, and Snake would be the cherry on the trap cake.

Genie, you're free (please be gone)
Chance: 1%
The Geno of Smash 4 speculation, a big army of requests fighting for potentionally nothing.
Though Shantae has actual things going for her:

-WayForward is no problem at all, being the headquarters of this brainwashing operation.
-Shantae actually has her own game, instead of piggybacking of off Mario's
-Shantae has four games
-Shantae is not dead

Though her pros other than popularity are just there so she's not impossible

But that's where it stops, she just appears on Nintendo platforms.
That's no super deep history.
She didn't influence Nintendo like the other third parties did, she's just there as the muhrep of a muhreppable group.

Just read @ ShinyRegice 's post again.

As for the score?
You're biased, I'm biased.

Want: 0%
Getting in a non-iconic third party for the sake of doing so, or for thanking a random company is not the way to go.

Original XenoBlade rep x5

 

[Delzethin]

I will say one thing.

Who's to say that Sakurai and/or Kojima will be so utterly offended and hurt that they couldn't come to a business understanding with people they don't like?

Not everyone is so easily offended as us westerners. Even if Kojima is deeply hurt, I doubt that a man of his caliber would be so petty to get angry at Sakurai for wanting to put Snake (A character he created) back in Smash.

Cooperate shenanigans are a potential problem, but I highly doubt they would come from Sakurai's or Kojima's spite.

I also doubt that Nintendo would be unwilling to compromise with Konami due to controversy. Nintendo has controversy of their own.

Business is business. "Ethics" are probably less of an issue than people actually think. They won't cut all ties.

What Konami is doing is deplorable, but is anyone actually gonna look down at Nintendo for making a business deal?

Have we become that petty?

I don't think it'd be out of pettiness or spite at all. From what we've heard, Konami has really crossed some lines. If I were in Kojima's shoes, I'd feel wronged and not be comfortable working with people who just recently stabbed me in the back. If I were in Sakurai's shoes, I'd hesitate to collab with people who are going out of their way to avoid being so much as associated with my friend.

From what word has gotten out, Sakurai working with Konami over Snake at this point would be like hooking up with your friend's abusive ex.

 

[B.H. and DD]

Snake
Chances: 50%
I think he has a pretty good chance. He is one of the most requested vets and 3rd parties. However, as a vet Wolf might take his place and as a 3rd party that brings some complications. Popularity will get him in... company complications will keep him out.
Want: 50%
He was SUPER fun in Brawl. I enjoyed playing as him a lot. However Mega Man is my main now so I'll see if that gets in the way of me using Snake again. I wouldn't be too upset if he didn't get in but if he does I'll be really happy. He's definitely the most unique vet this game has to offer.

Shantae
Chances: 25%
I think she has a decent chance. She's definitely the best choice for an indie if Sakurai chooses to go that route. She also could be top 10-20 in the ballot with all the support she has recently got. And even though not a lot of people know her in Japan, there may be a lot here in the west and just enough in Japan to get her in. Out of the potential 3rd parties being requested, I was surprised to find her being among the top 10!
Want: 75%
She's currently my most wanted. If she gets in I'll have the honor of having both a robot and a genie as mains. Plus, her move set would be so cool because she has a lot to choose from. I'd love to have a character that can both hair whips and transforms into a monkey. And her character design is super cute. I also really want at least one female for DLC and she would be one of the most unique options.

 

[TallT]

I find it crazy that so many people think a character who is a highly requested Brawl veteran and a iconic third-party character whose games have sold millions is less likely than a character from an indie series that most gamers have never heard of.

Snake:

Chance: 20%

Want: 0%

I can respect Snake and what he has done in gaming, but I never really liked or wanted him in Brawl.

Shantae:

Chance: 1%

I only gave her a 1% chance because of how vocal her fanbase is, but I highly doubt Sakurai would include a third-party that is not iconic and that almost no one in Japan has heard of.

Want: 0%

I want any guest character that comes to Smash to be someone known and respected all over the world and Shantae doesn't fit that description.

 

[FalKoopa]

Snake:

Chance: 10%
While there is a a lot of incentive to include Snake, like his given popularity and veteran status, Konami's behaviour right now doesn't make me think they would want to license the character to Nintendo, if the rumours about Konami trying to drive the Metal Gear Solid franchise into the ground are true.

Want: 55%
Never got really attached to him, but he's a veteran so I can't say no.
​

Shantae:

Chance: 2%
Yeah, 3rd party aside, she's relatively low-key compared to the gaming giants we've got till now. WayForward has been supporting her nearly as much as her fans, as it would be a huge honour for their character to stand alongside some of the most beloved video game characters. However, all said, I don't think the doors of Smash Bros are open to her and fellow indies yet. On the other hand, if she were owned by Nintendo, I imagine her chances would have been in the 50s-60s.

Want: 40%
Neat design and powers, but I'm rather unfamiliar.
​

 

[Logo12]

Snake:
Chance 50%
Now everyone is like "omg kojima is gone, he has no chance", I'd really like to know if that's the only factor for him, or is it even a factor that will cripple his chances.
Say that factor does work against his favor, then what? That only means Snake would be relying on the ballot, or if Sakurai have planned him already. Disregard the latter, the ballot, he DOES have a high support, if not the highest. Definitely not "medium-high" as people thought.
Also, veteran status, I've stated earlier on Wolf's chance, Veteran does have several advantages going for him. At least it also helps the former criterion, since Japanese favor them veterans, and seemingly on Miiverse at least, Snake is as popular, if not more popular than Wolf.

A few touch on Japanese's chance impression on Snake. Some of them still think Snake is unlikely due to... maturity issues. To a lesser extent is the Konami issues, which mostly talks about the relation between Konami and Nintendo, nothing much about Konami being a mess or stuff. but most of them still put Snake around the category of "Possible".
Want 44%/2 = 22%
My second wanted character... And yes it's that low.

Shantae:
Chance 1%/2 = 0.5%
I'll just take Sourcegaming out again. They kinda knew we would do a Shantae RTC so they did something one day earlier, so there's that

Anyway, as the article has mentioned, one of her most important negative factor is popularity. Indies "deserving" argument aside, they all suffer from the fact that they are not as iconic as the 3rd parties we have. I'm not even sure where did all those popularity come from, but apparently, in Japan, no one knows who the hell she is. It's like the Shovel Knight situation again, except, well, I saw one wanting Shovel Knight in Japan Miiverse (albeit "Shovel Man"), and I see none for Shantae.

Honestly, for her popularity, it's those bandwagoning thing going, and that

While not necessarily "not asked for at all", the fanbase would be much smaller and stuff. Those seek-for-attention / clickbait tweets are one big part why she even gets so much vocal support, and that one vandalism in that VA thing wouldn't help her at all.

Now for those "Nintendo needs indie rep", I honestly... just can't understand. It's not a big impact to the Nintendo history, not anything remotely iconic to the industry, is nothing more than a very new trend of tiny companies seeking attention.

Want -3%*1.5 = -4.5%
She goes on the same path for me as those like Shovel Knight, Bayonetta, etc for me. So I simply put her down the same percentage as those (I realized I didn't even bother to rate her just now), and subtractions because... you know why.

She is one of those whose popularity pop up because of a twitter post, and seeing her being overrated by, well, everyone around the community (and especially on this thread?), she automatically goes into those I hate.

Abstain from Prediction.

Nomination:
Slippy x5

Let's rerate Snake again later

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Snake
Chance: 1%
Copy and paste:

I am not confident in Snake's return at all. Yes he is a veteran and thus will get a lot of votes worldwide and has a moveset already, but I think he has four key factors working against him.
1. He is more loyal to other consoles than with Nintendo. Judging from the history of the MGS series, it has been on other consoles more than recent consoles. Sure, it was on a lot of Nintendo's earlier consoles, but the MGS series has been on the competition's consoles more. All Nintendo gets from MGS are remakes that were originally on Sony consoles; Nintendo is not going to get the new MGS games.
2. The E10 rating could be seen as a preventable factor. MGS is a very mature series and Snake is a very mature character; his inclusion could have raised the rating of the games. Snake uses weapons like grenades and mines, something that the ESRB could have raised the rating on. Nintendo may have prevented his inclusion for this very reason and they did outright cut content to get this rating.
3. Konami's relationship with Nintendo is very bad recently. They are less active on Nintendo consoles and they have a very iffy relationship with Nintendo. Konami may not want to request to put Snake in, especially when the guy who begged Sakurai to put Snake in Brawl is (supposedly) fired (and I only say supposedly because who knows what Kojima is actually doing).
4. The Wii U isn't doing well financially. This also could have been a preventing factor as the Wii U isn't holding up well against the PS4 and Xbox One, two systems that will get MGSV. This means that Snake's inclusion is a double edged sword; include Snake and they will get profit from MGS fans who might not have bought a Wii U in the first place, but the competition could profit by buying MGSV and thus hurt Nintendo a bit more.
It's honestly for these reasons why I think Snake doesn't have a strong chance at all. Could I be wrong? Perhaps, but I think Snake should have been in the base game to have a chance.
One thing to note: yes, Ryu is pretty odd as he is a Capcom character. However, his inclusion is made slightly easier as Nintendo already has the rights to a Capcom character with Mega Man; they could ask Capcom to include Ryu and, knowing how Capcom loves their crossovers, would agree to such a thing.

What is going to be a major preventable factor now is going to be Konami itself. Konami is moving onto mobile platforms instead of working on home consoles, so they might not take interest in having Snake in Smash. Not only that, but Kojima is going to be laid off, ya know... the guy who made the Metal Gear series and begged for Sakurai to put him in Smash? Now that he won't be around, this casts more doubt on Snake's chances. Being a veteran and having ballot support as a result of it can only push Snake so far.
I think the chances of a Konami character are pretty low for the direction that they are taking.

Konami has made it clear where they are going and what direction they are taking after those pachinko machines.
I can't account for what has gone out recently, but I can imagine Sakurai might not want to work with Konami for what they have done to his friend.
EDIT: Also, I want to state two things in regards to Konami.
1. Konami hasn't supported the Wii U at all. At least Sega, Capcom, and Namco tried with the trio of Sonic games (and the new Mario & Sonic), a new Monster Hunter and Resident Evil Revelations, and a Tekken game (and they tried to port a game before canceling it) respectively. There hasn't been any new games from Konami on the Wii U, not even the newest Metal Gear Solid, and they have only released Virtual Console games. They even abandoned the 3DS and even that Castlevania game was ported to other consoles. The trio is also still making games on the 3DS.
2. People have been mentioning about the Hudson Soft thing. What I say is this: So what? They own those IPs, yes, but they are still technically Hudson Soft IPs. They probably don't have time to focus on those series to instead focus on their own. If anything, I say that the Hudson Soft thing helps Bomberman more than anything, because it shows that Konami will allow other companies, including Nintendo, to work on it. This is something that I find to be irrelevant, unless they say that Nintendo can make a new Metal Gear.
Want: 0%
Copy and paste:

I don't hate Snake as a character and I loved playing as him in Brawl, but I don't want him to return at all.
In a game with Nintendo's all-stars, he is far from one in my eyes. Sonic, Mega Man, and even Pac-Man, I can identify them as Nintendo all-stars due to their history with the company; Snake barely has that with Nintendo.
My 0% want also comes from another reason: Bomberman. Snake's cut doesn't mean that he will get in, but the door is open for him slightly. Bomberman is an absolute dream of mine and Snake getting in was a preventing factor since he is now owned by Konami. This cut at least gives me hope for the next game...

Also, after hearing about what they have done, I started to hate this company and everything that it stands for. I can't support such a greedy, petty, and disgusting company.
While I still support Bomberman, I view him more as a Hudson Soft character instead of a Konami one. He may be Konami owned, but he is still a Hudson Soft character at heart.

Shantae
Chance: 0.01%
Nothing has changed. Copy and paste:

Her support in the US is rather decent, but she is pretty obscure in Japan. Being a third party character, this hurts her chances tremendously with lack of support in other areas.
The main thing that is really holding her back is iconic / legendary status. Technically, no such rule actually exists, but you have to sit and ask yourself if the character is legendary or worthy enough to be placed alongside gaming icons like Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man. Shantae is a character that really can't be placed among these icons due to a lack of iconic status. As for legendary, she really isn't that either. Characters like Bomberman, Simon Belmont, Ryu, and veteran Snake are legendary and iconic, Rayman is kinda legendary, Phoenix Wright and Professor Layton are pseudo-legendary. Then we have Shantae, who is really an icon for indie developers; I don't think that is a good enough push for her to get in before the characters I just mentioned.
I am aware that her developer said that they want her in the game, but a lot of developers do. Suda 51 wants Travis Touchdown in Smash and some devs from Microsoft want Banjo-Kazooie in the game, so this really isn't special. You can chalk up Snake here, but at least he is, again, iconic and legendary and the person who requested to put their character in the game, Hideo Kojima, is a friend of Sakurai.
Overall, I think some of these scores that I am seeing right now are a bit inflated.

Anything like that IMDB page is fake.

Want: 0%
I'm not interested at all and Way Forward hasn't convinced me really. They are just providing false hope and hype for their fans; I know that you are super supportive of your character in Smash, but this isn't the way to go.

Pirate Ship Prediction: 11.38%
Going low here.
Smash Tour Update Prediction: 18.41%
I'm curious about the want score.

Nominations: Heihachi 5x

 

[ikke471]

Snake:
Chance: 10%
He's in a bad spot right now with the whole Konami/Kojima thing going on + I think Sakurai reaslised he didn't fit smash all that well
Want: 0%
I absolutely hated him in brawl. I'd rather not see him return

Shantae:
Chance: 12%
This is a strange one. A very old 3rd party and all her games were built for nintendo consoles.. but she lacks starpower
Want: 80%
She'd be awesome in smash no doubt about it

 

[B.H. and DD]

A lot of you seem to be under or over scoring. I know it's just a guess but I think this really proves how unpredictable this last set of DLC will be.

 

[Zane13pyro]

Abstain on Snake, aside from a Solid 70% want
I've fallen in love with trapping playstyles this time around, and Snake would be the cherry on the trap cake.

Genie, you're free (please be gone)
Chance: 1%
The Geno of Smash 4 speculation, a big army of requests fighting for potentionally nothing.
Though Shantae has actual things going for her:

-WayForward is no problem at all, being the headquarters of this brainwashing operation.
-Shantae actually has her own game, instead of piggybacking of off Mario's
-Shantae has four games
-Shantae is not dead

Though her pros other than popularity are just there so she's not impossible

But that's where it stops, she just appears on Nintendo platforms.
That's no super deep history.
She didn't influence Nintendo like the other third parties did, she's just there as the muhrep of a muhreppable group.

Just read @ ShinyRegice 's post again.

As for the score?
You're biased, I'm biased.

Want: 0%
Getting in a non-iconic third party for the sake of doing so, or for thanking a random company is not the way to go.

Original XenoBlade rep x5

To be honest I voted for both Shantae (who I give a 20 for a lot of people I know would vote for her) and Geno (I give a 20 for both Nintendo artist talking about him and a strong fanbase that has keeped for alittle time) for smash dlc just wanted to let you know and as a big mgs fan I was happy about snake (who I give a 1 just because of stuff happening) in brawl but I just don't see him coming back tho if he does that is cool (im not really good at this XD)

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma and @SpiritofSpeed win for Amaterasu, @ Smasher 101 wins for Daisy.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

I give my five extra nominations to Kamek (he has no chance, but Cranky will be rated soon and I don't have anything else to nominate).

 

[Logo12]

A lot of you seem to be under or over scoring. I know it's just a guess but I think this really proves how unpredictable this last set of DLC will be.

Because everyone is biased, and then everyone wants to balance the bias by being more bias, and the loop goes on.

 

[BluePikmin11]

And I thought we would leave people's perspectives alone, stop calling people biased guys. It doesn't help anything but steam a "biased" argument.

 

[Logo12]

And I thought we would leave people's perspectives alone, stop calling people biased guys. It doesn't help anything but steam a "biased" argument.

Well but it is true...

As for the score?
You're biased, I'm biased.

 

[FalKoopa]

A lot of you seem to be under or over scoring. I know it's just a guess but I think this really proves how unpredictable this last set of DLC will be.

Eh, it's just what they think her chances are. ¯\_( ツ)_/¯

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Definitely sensing a little bias here.

Well, everyone is biased when it comes to characters, it's not a new concept.
Thank You @ BluePikmin11 for bringing up the biased statement a good point saying that biasness shouldn't even be a part of any argument during speculation cause then it'll start a massive debate.

 

[Troykv]

And I thought we would leave people's perspectives alone, stop calling people biased guys. It doesn't help anything but steam a "biased" argument.

Is against my personality be biased (the only character that I put with a "biased" Rate was Micaiah [30%] and even I feel that my bias was surprisely reprimed... But the Shantae's thing is a whole different level)

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Do any of you know why Kojima got ousted?

He overspent...by MILLIONS of dollars. They paid millions for a soundtrack, and because he didn't like it, they got rid of it. Millions...gone.

Now, I agree that Konami is just the WORST, but let's realize that that is a perfectly good reason to be pissed off. Especially rather than just sandbagging because all the other fans are ****ting on the company. I love Kojima to death and don't really care that he spent that money, but OF COURSE Konami would be pissed. Can't really blame them either.

Also, stop complaining about bias. EVERYBODY is biased. Everyone.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

A lot of you seem to be under or over scoring. I know it's just a guess but I think this really proves how unpredictable this last set of DLC will be.

True, bias has a part of it. I see it instead as looking at how divisive a character is. When we rated someone like Wolf, the scores weren't so all over the place. When we rated some of the no-chance characters, we got pretty universal zeroes. Some characters have a status where the community agrees where they go, some end up with completely bimodal scores showing they have both people who really want them, and people who really don't, with nothing much inbetween.

Take from that what you will.

 

[AirshBornely]

Oh boy...

Snake:

Chances: 0%
Issues issues and issues. Everyone has pretty much said it all already.

Want: 85%
I just recently go into MG and I've always enjoyed playing as Snake in Brawl.

Shantae:

Chances: 8%
-Games been mostly on Nintendo platforms.
-Wouldn't be a generic fighter.
-Shantae recently became popular, but the general public didn't even know who was before Smash. Of course, he had other factors that were in his favor. (Like being popular in Japan & Europe and being Nintendo)
-Yes, she's a niche in Japan, but that doesn't mean Japan can't play Risky's Revenge.
-A third party and an indie character, but didn't stop Mr. Video to get in as a trophy. (This one is probably generic and doesn't serve much credibility... )
Want: 80%
I'm not a huge fan, but a fan nonetheless. Also, uniqueness.

Nominations: Lsa Jo 5x

 

[Laniv]

Figures that the one day I want to rate a character is the one day I miss.

Snake:

Chance: 36%
A popular veteran with a unique moveset... whose company is doing... something.

Want: 95%
He and King Dedede were my two most played heavyweights

Shantae:

Chance: 12%
She has popularity, yes, but she is still an indie character with a very small fanbase.

Want: 80%


Predictions for Pirate Ship: 12% Chance, 16% Want
Predictions for Smash Tour content: 4% Chance, 74% Want

Nominate Tom Nook x 5