Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Swamp Sensei]

Shantae: .01%

She borders on impossibility.

Positives:

++Kind of popular request
+Developer support is encouraging
+Stands Out
+Could have a unique moveset

Negatives:
----------------------------------------------------She does not meet third party criteria
--------------------Incredibly obscure in Japan
----Not popular enough to counter the above problems


She is not a legend like Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man or Ryu.

Compared to these gaming revolutionaries, she is nothing.

Being a legend is required.

People can't seem to see that.

The moment people on the street know Shantae's games, I'll change my tune.

But until then, she will not happen.

Want: 30%

She's neat, though I haven't played her games so I have no connection with her. I want to though!

Unfortunately, some people I know have turned me off from her... She is their waifu and it reeeeeally shows...

Not fair to the character, but I've met enough of those people to bitter the experience a bit.



Inkling Prediction: 55%


Phoenix Wright x 3
Wolf
Snake

 

[MasterWarlord]

Chance 4%. Little Mac's games are at least available for Japanese audiences to play regardless of their iffy opinions on him. An exclusively western character would have terrible sales.

Want 10%

Nominate Shovel Knight x5

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae

Chance: 0.1%

Considering all the indie support Nintendo's been getting on both the 3DS and even the struggling, unpopular Wii U, I honestly believe there's a better chance of an indie character debuting in a Smash Bros. game than Snake returning. (More on him when his day comes.) Smash 4 already features a trophy of Commander Video from the Bit.Trip series, so I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai and his team have at least considered taking indie representation a step further. The only negative point about indie characters in general is that by default, they are nowhere near as legendary as Mega Man, Sonic, or Pac-Man.

WayForward's titular half-genie mascot Shantae is one of the more popular indie characters to have graced Nintendo platforms, all four installments in her self-titled series either are or will be available on Nintendo platforms (two of them happen to be exclusive), and WayForward has been on good terms with Nintendo for over a decade now. I won't deny that she's arguably one of, if not the most deserving third party characters for a playable Smash Bros. appearance, but that doesn't necessarily make her highly likely.

Aside from the aforementioned hurdle that comes with being an indie character, none of Shantae's games have ever been localized in Japan. This is a major issue because Sakurai will likely remain unaware of her existence until reading western players' ballots, he most certainly is not a fan, and very few Japanese players, if any at all, would be interested in buying her as DLC. A similar problem affects a certain purple dragon's chances, but we're not at his day yet, so I'm abstaining from explaining anymore details on him...for now.

Want: 80%

I have never played any of her games, but I am interested in her series. She looks like would fit with the rest of the cast rather well.

Prediction: Inkling - 73%

Many will certainly overrate Inkling for being a brand new character from a brand new IP that could greatly benefit from being promoted via playable representation in a Smash Bros. game while a few others will be harshly negative towards him/her.

Nomination: Snake x5

 

[Delzethin]

Well yeah, they could add more. I didn't say it was for sure. In fact, what I said was that I was going to try to keep it to 6 more (Lucas, Roy, Ryu + 3 more, hence the 300%). Because I see <5 as pretty unlikely, ≥5 as very very likely, ≥6 as likely, ≥7 as possible, ≥8 as plausible but unlikely, ≥9 is a longshot. All in all, maybe that means I should go with something like 6.5 as the expected value, not exactly 6. So that'd be 350% to divide up.

All that is to say that I'm not saying that there's definitely only three open slots, I'm saying that I think the average outcome is somewhere around that. To be strictly mathematically accurate, I would want to do separate ratings for each of those scenarios and calculate the overall probability, since as I said, I don't think that characters chances are all independent. So it's a simplification to simply pretend that I should have about 300% or so to divvy up among the characters. But it does NOT mean that I think that there are definitely only 3 slots.

You've thought it out really well. Impressive.

Thing is, though...if we go by that, then it raises other questions. Assuming Ryu and Roy are distinct playable characters, it leaves your most likely scenario with three more spots, as you said. Wolf seems like a near-lock right now, which would put it at two. The Smash Ballot was announced with to huge acclaim, with all of these campaigns and roster talk and...you get the idea. So here's what I don't get:

Why would they go through all of that if they were only going to take two characters from the ballot?

If they only planned on adding two or one that way, all they'd need to do is lie low and observe which potential newcomers were the most popular. It'd be pretty easy to figure out one, and arguably the second as well. It just isn't like Nintendo or a group working very closely with Nintendo to make an announcement like the Smash Ballot and have it mean so little. It'd be out of character for a company so known for surprising everyone.

That...is why I feel like we'll get at least four characters from the ballot, regardless of who comes before them.

 

[Potatoharbinger]

Shantae

Chance- 10%
Not the kind of person to kid myself, all indie characters chances are slim at best, no exceptions here.

Want- 100%
I've played the games and love them. Her moveset potential is huge and would work as a great addition to the roster.
Her niche popularity among gamers can be attributed to developer budget constraints at the time of her creation. If Wayforward had more money back then, maybe she wouldn't be as obscure. This can happen to any character and isn't much of a base for compelling argument against anyone's inclusion. Plus, Wayforward is conducting quite the hype train, one even Reggie would be proud of.

I understand the argument of Smash having been Nintendo's all stars, but it never truly has been. Even in Smash 64, I didn't know a single person that was hyped when they unlocked Captain Falcon for the first time, or even knew who he was as a character outside of "I think he's in that space racing game". Not pilot of the Blue Falcon, not galactic bounty hunter, just a guy in a purple jumpsuit. Would anyone call him an "all star" at that time? If that isn't convincing, Brawl (forgive my use of it's cursed name) really was the end with the inclusion of 3rd party characters. It cannot in any way be Nintendo's all stars with Sega and Hideo Kajima's characters showing up to play. Nintendo's game has evolved from their all stars to an all star franchise of great games. The game isn't about the characters, but the unique spin on fighting games Nintendo has created and has evolved to represent a wider cast of franchises and companies.

Plus, Nintendo is ridiculous when adding characters to games. In Melee, they added a character that no one outside of Japan even knew, hardly qualifying all star status, AND made a clone of that character. Literally anything could happen, so I haven't lost hope yet.

Inklings
Chance- 60% - Being a Nintendo IP definitely boosts chances and the unexplained hype is real.

Want- Abstain : Can't really have an opinion on characters from a game NO ONE has played yet, and I have doubts about potential movesets. All they do is shoot squirt guns full of ink and turn back into squids. Where do you go from there?

I like this idea, but it's still tough to see this as a very compelling set of data with heavy implications on the real voting.

 

[Alex Night]

Shantae: .01%

She borders on impossibility.

Positives:

++Kind of popular request
+Developer support is encouraging
+Stands Out
+Could have a unique moveset

Negatives:
----------------------------------------------------She does not meet third party criteria
--------------------Incredibly obscure in Japan
----Not popular enough to counter the above problems


She is not a legend like Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man or Ryu.

Compared to these gaming revolutionaries, she is nothing.

Being a legend is required.

People can't seem to see that.

The moment people on the street know Shantae's games, I'll change my tune.

But until then, she will not happen.

Want: 30%

She's neat, though I haven't played her games so I have no connection with her. I want to though!

Unfortunately, some people I know have turned me off from her... She is their waifu and it reeeeeally shows...

Not fair to the character, but I've met enough of those people to bitter the experience a bit.



Inkling Prediction: 55%


Phoenix Wright x 3
Wolf
Snake

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, WHOA. How in the world is not meeting third party criteria a bad thing? If you haven't seen the Kickstarter, she's going to be on many gaming platforms and she has been a part of Nintendo for a very long time. Very akin to Banjo except that she wasn't bought out. How is being a legend a requirement? We have Wii Fit Trainer and she/he is not even considered legendary by many people. It's certainly a big plus to be one, but not required.

 

[TallT]

Shantae

Chance: 3%

The reason I gave her such a low rating is because she is not a gaming icon like the current third parties and because she has not seen a release in Japan, so I seriously doubt she has a chance. Also, it's really not good for Nintendo from a business prospective to release a character with such a high risk to bomb in sells in one country and that sells good in another. Furthermore, Nintendo has characters that would sell better worldwide and that wouldn't be such a financial risk. I think they will not go with a indie character, but if they did Quote whose game has seen releases in the west and Japan would be the more likely choice. Even though she has a good size fan base I don't think that will be enough to give her the push she needs to be included in the roster. Finally I would like to note that just because indie representation may be important to many fans does not mean it is important to Nintendo or Sakurai. Even though we received a trophy of one indie character in the game that does not mean that the developers feel that indies also need to be represented in the roster, and they could be completely satisfied with the current representation for indies as a trophy. However, Sakurai could always do something crazy, so Shantae still has a small glimmer of hope.

Want: 1%

I satisfied with the current third party characters we have right now and don't want anymore.

Inkling prediction: 54.5%

Nominate: Paper Mario x5

 

[Kalimdori]

She is not a legend like Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man or Ryu.

Compared to these gaming revolutionaries, she is nothing.

Being a legend is required.

People can't seem to see that.

The moment people on the street know Shantae's games, I'll change my tune.

But until then, she will not happen.

This is actually a made up rule.

Sakurai hasn't actually stated that a 3rd party character has to be a "legend", so to speak, to get into the game. The extent of what he's said (At least based on what I've been able to find) is this:

1. Sakurai considers this to be a Nintendo-centric game, and doesn't want to add 3rd party characters willy-nilly.

2. He likes adding them, considering their inclusion to "Broaden the Smash Bros Arena", and likes that they make alot of fans happy.

Source: http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/544...system-complete-talks-third-party-characters/

3. Sakurai considers each 3rd party character to be a "special case" in terms of inclusion.

Source: http://kotaku.com/dont-expect-a-lot-of-third-party-characters-in-the-nex-513203533
(Also reaffirms that he won't add alot of 3rd party characters)

4. A contributing factor to Pacman was that Namco Bandai was working on the game. (Also Snake got in largely because of Kojima wanting him)

5. Moveset potential is important, even for 3rd parties. Sakurai lists Megaman as an obvious inclusion due to his wide array of possible attacks, but lists that Pacman took careful consideration in order to make a proper moveset for him.

Source: http://nintendoeverything.com/sakur...racters-are-chosen-in-smash-bros-roster-more/

6. Adding 3rd party characters is pretty difficult.

Source: http://www.vg247.com/2013/06/14/super-smash-bros-unlikely-to-have-more-third-party-characters/

7. Probably worth adding, 3rd party votes are allowed for the ballot: http://www.destructoid.com/noa-open-to-3rd-party-smash-bros-dlc-votes-290059.phtml

If anybody can add to this, please do, but this is all I could find on the subject. Based on what we know and have seen, third party characters in Smash Bros have had a huge legacy behind them, and have all had good reason to be added into the game. However, there has never actually been a rule stated that a character has to be "legendary" in order to be added into the game, meaning that this is yet another made up rule by the Smash community. Is it an actual rule? Probably, all our evidence currently points to it. But just like how "Each third party company can only have one character", or "Fire Emblem characters have to be Lord characters", these rules are only true until, well, they aren't.


I'd like to add to all of this that Sakurai said he didn't want to add characters from fighting games, but Ryu looks to be on the way regardless

 

[Aetheri]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, WHOA. How in the world is not meeting third party criteria a bad thing? If you haven't seen the Kickstarter, she's going to be on many gaming platforms and she has been a part of Nintendo for a very long time. Very akin to Banjo except that she wasn't bought out. How is being a legend a requirement? We have Wii Fit Trainer and she/he is not even considered legendary by many people. It's certainly a big plus to be one, but not required.

Wii Fit Trainer was created by Nintendo firstly (not too mention she's a nod to casual gaming as the Wii Fit had impressive sales overall), when it comes to Nintendo characters themselves Sakurai can play around with all the pieces as he wants, there's no legal issue and the risks are very minimal...when it comes to third party it goes right down to who's worth it...when it comes to Sonic (who's company no longer makes gaming platforms which should be noted) Mario's rival Sakurai knows people want to see it happen, Snake has a long history with Nintendo and Kojima had a strong push to get him in, Megaman platforming icon, and Pac-Man one of the best games ever made back in the stone age of gaming....Shantae doesn't quite measure up when it comes to third party inclusions as she is a relatively unknown character especially in Japan....
With all that said that doesn't mean that Sakurai is limiting third party inclusions to only legendary characters, but it is less likely he will try to be as creative with a character outside of Nintendo's ownership...

 

[gb7zone7]

Shantae
Chance: 9%
I feel like she has the pedigree and the history to be in Smash. Her games have been Nintendo exclusives or have started out as Nintendo exclusives for 13 years. WayForward recognizes their Nintendo fanbase supporting them the most hence why a lot of their titles start out as Nintendo exclusives. She has big loyalty to the Nintendo family, she almost feels like she's second party. I can't think of many third party characters that are equal or more deserving of recognition than her. WayForward are wanting to help work on her if she gets the chance. She's got an anime-esque look to her and a likeable personality that a potential Japanese audience would adore. Ken Sugimori has actually played Pirate's Curse and loved it.

Despite all that however, she is western and her lack of games in the Japanese market really hinders her chances. Being third party doesn't help her either...

Want: 100%
Shantae has well established herself to be a great potential fighter through her three released games. I feel like she can stick out amongst the roster with her hair-whips, belly dances, animal transformations, Pirate-Gear (that lets her wield a flintlock pistol, a giant hat to hover, a scimitar, boots that let her run into her enemies at high speeds and a cannonball jump that lets her jump three times in the air.), not the mention her various magical powers that let her summon lighting/exploding clouds, fireball and flamethrower abilities and pike balls. Shantae can be a fun and quirky character.

She would be a great eshop representative because of her long history. From starting off as an obscure title that got unrecognized due to outdated hardware even though it was pushed to its limits, it would later branch out more critically acclaimed titles and a successful kickstarter through the power of digital distribution. (Too romantic?)

I just love the series and I would like it to be more recognized and give it the love it needs. Also Shantae amiibo.

Inkling Prediction: 39%

Nomination: Ice Climbers x2, Magolor x3

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, WHOA. How in the world is not meeting third party criteria a bad thing? If you haven't seen the Kickstarter, she's going to be on many gaming platforms and she has been a part of Nintendo for a very long time. Very akin to Banjo except that she wasn't bought out. How is being a legend a requirement? We have Wii Fit Trainer and she/he is not even considered legendary by many people. It's certainly a big plus to be one, but not required.

It's considered a criteria for third parties to be legends.

"“Smash Bros. can still be considered as an all-star collection of Nintendo characters. Just like with Mega Man or any other third-party character, it would have to be a very special situation.”"

http://www.nintendo-insider.com/201...arty-characters-in-super-smash-bros-unlikely/

"Adding third-party characters should be considered a very special case. In the last game, when we added Sonic and Snake, there were lots of different hoops to jump through as far as getting approvals and making sure all the parties involved were happy with the way things went. You can consider it a very special circumstance for that to happen," Sakurai said. "Even in cases like adding Pokemon characters, there are a lot of parties involved and there’s a lot of wrangling. It’s much tougher than people can imagine. I know lots of people have requests and their own ideas about third-party characters that would work, but I want people to understand that adding a third-party character like Mega Man is a very special situation."

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/06...ters-receive-no-priority-for-super-smash-bros


He's very clear that Third Parties have to be very special.

That comment wasn't directed at Wii Fit Trainer as she is Nintendo owned. That criteria doesn't apply to her.

This is actually a made up rule.

Sakurai hasn't actually stated that a 3rd party character has to be a "legend", so to speak, to get into the game. The extent of what he's said (At least based on what I've been able to find) is this:

1. Sakurai considers this to be a Nintendo-centric game, and doesn't want to add 3rd party characters willy-nilly.

2. He likes adding them, considering their inclusion to "Broaden the Smash Bros Arena", and likes that they make alot of fans happy.

Source: http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/544...system-complete-talks-third-party-characters/

3. Sakurai considers each 3rd party character to be a "special case" in terms of inclusion.

Source: http://kotaku.com/dont-expect-a-lot-of-third-party-characters-in-the-nex-513203533
(Also reaffirms that he won't add alot of 3rd party characters)

4. A contributing factor to Pacman was that Namco Bandai was working on the game. (Also Snake got in largely because of Kojima wanting him)

5. Moveset potential is important, even for 3rd parties. Sakurai lists Megaman as an obvious inclusion due to his wide array of possible attacks, but lists that Pacman took careful consideration in order to make a proper moveset for him.

Source: http://nintendoeverything.com/sakur...racters-are-chosen-in-smash-bros-roster-more/

6. Adding 3rd party characters is pretty difficult.

Source: http://www.vg247.com/2013/06/14/super-smash-bros-unlikely-to-have-more-third-party-characters/

7. Probably worth adding, 3rd party votes are allowed for the ballot: http://www.destructoid.com/noa-open-to-3rd-party-smash-bros-dlc-votes-290059.phtml

If anybody can add to this, please do, but this is all I could find on the subject. Based on what we know and have seen, third party characters in Smash Bros have had a huge legacy behind them, and have all had good reason to be added into the game. However, there has never actually been a rule stated that a character has to be "legendary" in order to be added into the game, meaning that this is yet another made up rule by the Smash community. Is it an actual rule? Probably, all our evidence currently points to it. But just like how "Each third party company can only have one character", or "Fire Emblem characters have to be Lord characters", these rules are only true until, well, they aren't.


I'd like to add to all of this that Sakurai said he didn't want to add characters from fighting games, but Ryu looks to be on the way regardless

I do remember one article where he said they needed to be legendary, but I can't find it.

Can anyone find it?

 

[Raheem The Dream]

Day 9: Shantae​

Welcome to the new rate their chances thread. This is a reboot to the popular game played last year only this time we're focusing on DLC.

How to play
​

Everyday we discuss a potential DLC newcomer or concept and we rate them on how likely they are and how much we want them on a scale of 0%-100%, I also recommend writing an explanation. You also have a chance to nominate characters to rate. You will be given five nominations per day and we will rate whatever character has the most nominations at the end of the day. The nominations list can be found on PK_Wonders post. You're also given the option of predicting what the chance score will be for the character we rate the following day, the one next in line on the the nominations chart. After we rate it the following day Smasher 101 will announce who guessed closest to the actual score, that person will win five extra nominations.

Rules
​

1. Characters must originate from a video game and they must have been featured on at least one Nintendo console.

2. You're allowed to debate but no flame wars.

In case you're confused, here's post outline detailing what your posts will look like:

Spoiler

(Character being rated)
Chance: 0% - 100% (based on how likely they are of being DLC, write an explanation if you want)
Want: 0% - 100% (based on how much you want them in, write an explanation if you want)

(Character being rated tomorrow)
Prediction: 0% - 100% (remember your predicting what you think other peoples average chance scores will be, not your own)

Nominations: (Nominate the characters you want to see rated, you're given five nominations per day and you may stack multiple nominations on a single character)

If you want to look up any past rating, XenoBrawler610 has posted a directory at the bottom of this page.

#ShantaeForSmash https://www.facebook.com/pages/Shan...s-in-Smash-4-3DSWii-U-version/769600476420657

 

[Deleted member]

Ok i'm going to give my opinion on both Shantae AND the Inkling

Shantae shantae shantae. The beloved genie... uhm... HALF-genie of scuttle town. Made by a Indie dev who has games on both of Nintendo's major consoles right now, the 3ds and Wii U. Like the people said before me Shantae is a character who originates from the US and isn't very popular in Japan. But IN the us however, she is indeed the waifu of many here. A emphasis on many MANY MANY people. For that reason alone shantae's chances are better than %3. So i'd say %14+ chance of Shantae getting into Smash somehow. Do i want the character? Nah. Does half of Smashboards want her? Duh. Take one good look at her and you'll see that funny-looking belly dancer on alot of threads. Such as this one, even.
She does have a few good things i will admit however. A moveset completely different compared to one single fighter on the roster, but that still isn't enough for me personally to get her.

Now about Inkling whose going to be the subject tomorrow, how bout i just rate now...

Inkling is yet another beloved waifu ( I am very well aware the characters are of both genders, i am speaking of the commonly shown Inkling which is that orange... "haired" girl ) amongst Smashboards. The character IS a nintendo one, so her chances are higher than most of the Ballot's. Though this is like... what? A ballot generating machine made by Eggman for Smashboards?! SO MANY people do want Inkling, and they believe that once the game is out, it is good. You are going to love Splatoon. And it will be your life.... okay. Back on topic. The Inkling is going to be way too powerful for team battles. All characters are designed to rock n roll without buffing eachother. Oh, and those characters are smashers. The Inkling's armed with a ink gun. That will hurt, owch. So anyways, Inklings chances are %28+. And yet another no to a character i would want on my Smash Bros roster. Hopefully i'm not going to be called a "girl-hater" i love girls. They are as capable as men when it comes to battles. But... these... i dunno.

Indeed as i was typing this big post, there's a huge Shantae poster right above me. And my post is quite messy and i don't want to fix it.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shantae

Chance: 1%
She's, frankly speaking, a nobody. This in itself wouldn't prevent her from being added into Smash had she been a Nintendo character, but she's not. She's applying to be added as a third party choice. A position previously filled by and now rumoured Ryu. Shantae frankly doesn't measure up to any of these guys.

Her one redeeming feature is she has ballot popularity. But so do Goku, Shrek, Minecraft Steve and every Sonic character. She's above them in likelihood, sure, but not by much.

I watched that video btw, and here are the reasons given to vote her, which apply to tons of characters:

• #10: Shantae is a girl.
  So are plenty of other characters, including far easier to obtain ones like Dixie, Impa, Krystal, Inkling(ok both genders but), Medusa, Viridi, etc. As reasons go this is vague. You may as well say she has purple hair, as there's a distinct lack of purple hair.
  
  
• #9: All of Shantae's games are available on NIntendo systems.
  So are Dillon's and he was only considered AT worthy. So are Bayonetta's if we're using third parties.
  
  
• #8: No Current representation.
  Well, dur-fricking-uuuur.
  She's the main character in a relatively small third party game series. This could be applied to literally any third party that isn't from Sonic, Metal Gear, Megaman, Pac-Man or Street Fighter as well as Nintendo games such as Golden Sun, Doshin the Giant, Harmoknight, etc.
  
  
• #7: Wayfoward say yes!
  Microsoft say yes. Super Meat Boy's creator's say yes. Ubisoft say yes.
  No surprise; Smash is the sort of advertisement you can't pay for, especially since Amiibo collecting is big at current too. Everyone wants in.
  
  
• #6: She's got moves.
  All characters have moveset potential. In particular anyone who starred in their own game has moveset potential.
  Pac-Man only ate dots in his original game, Duck Hunt dog merely laughed at you, Falcon was a race car driver and Fox was a pilot.
  
  
• #5: Humour.
  Humour is naturally subjective, but doesn't really translate into a fighting game outside a wacky moveset or silly facial expressions. Kid Icarus was considered hilarious by many but outside the codecs the KI characters aren't really that humourous.
  
  
• #4: Needs more exposure.
  Perfect reason why she doesn't stand up to the other third parties and why Wayforward said yes. Also apparently the Japanese aren't sure who she is according to this point.
  
  
• #3: Shantae is adorable.
  She is, but again, so are plenty of characters. Four out of five of the characters in my sig are adorable and three of them aren't playable yet. Many Pokemon are adorable. Boxboy is adorable.
  
  
• #2: Music.
  To be fair, her music is good, but again there's some good music with many other choices such as Wonder Red.
  
  
• #1: Shantae loves Nintendo
  I don't doubt this, but many 2D sidescrollers take cues from the likes of Metroid and even more platformers take cues from Mario.

I just can't see it happening; she's Western exclusive, she's from a pretty tiny series with minimal influence as a Nintendo IP and all the points that were made in the video Warlock kept posting are equally applicable to characters who are easier to obtain and would appeal to Japanese audiences as well as western ones.

Want: 5%

Actually this has made me want to play Shantae's series, so that's something good that came from this. She looks interesting enough but I don't think she has any place in Super Smash Bros.

Not a Nintendo IP, doesn't stand in the same tier (or even just below it) as the current 3rd parties, I'd prefer Dixie Kong for a hair whipping attacker, I'd prefer Rayman, Bomberman, Banjo, etc to her as a third party, although she's still a better option than Shovel Knight and Geno in my eyes.

Inkling Prediction: 56%
Promoted loads, new IP, highly anticipated, Nintendo owned, loads of unique moveset options...most will presume Inkling is pretty likely.

EDIT: Nominations:
Vaati X 5.

Knew I forgot something...

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Shantae
Chan-tae-ce: 1% (Single Sakurai BluePikmin Percent)
Shantae is a third party character competing in a ballot where there are maybe 9 characters max.
Her games are not released and there's a third party character part of the DLC already.

Her fan outcry is extremely strong, appearing almost everywhere so the chance her being a ballot character are okay though.

Want-ae: 1%

Shantae is the apocalypse of the Smash Bros speculation because three things will happen:

1. Shantae has shaken up the rules so much that everybody has gone insane.
Everything could happen, everything!
The next days will be spend debating like always, but a troll comes to debate for Conker.
We laugh at him but he points to Shantae.
Shantae has become the new argument for everything.
Minecraft Steve, Freddy Fazbear, all will be defended under the only rule left:

"Shantae Clause. Everything can happen. Be prepared."

Speculation will burn down...

2. Then we look at Sakurai.
Everybody trembles in fear. What will, what could be his next move.
Will the fan outcry for Reckless Wiimote Man be enough?
Will he be in?
It helped with Shantae, to a degree.

Nobody can think.
Nobody can move.

Speculation will be shocked...

3. The floodgates for third parties will open.
People only dreamed about an eight-player third party party, but people are expecting it now.
"Crash Bandicoot vs Phoenix Wright vs Conker vs Gruntilda", a boy screamed on stream!
"Let's make it happen, like with Shantae"

"Ryu vs. Blanka"- a gamer girl (I need to include one right?" said on Miiverse.

Oh no.
Miiverse.
Their usual stupidity tenfolded.

Not only Freddy Fazbear, but the whole crew of "We Love Golf" were requested widely there.
Bigley had his own game on Nintendo consoles, so he's in the race too.
Bigley sigs, Miis and drawings of every rule at the same time.
It's horror.

It's the campaign.

Speculation will be flooded...

"But Weird, why that one percent want?
Are you a percent of complete sadist?"

Nah, but we finally have a pirate in Smash.

-End Story- (Take note Roth this is the dystopia book you need)

Prediction Inklings: 22%
Magolor x5

 

[Deleted member]

I won't quote anyone, but is it that hard for you to respect everybody's opinion without being that harsh in your comments and by always giving the bare minimum in your explanations (LOLNOPE, DON'T LIKE THIS CHAR, -10 000 % IN CHANCE/WANT !1!) ?

If you disagree with the inclusion and gameplay possibilities of the character of the day and what it could bring in Smash, that's fine, but Dear Palutena, please, show just a very little more construction in your lines, and show a modicum of politeness and tactfulness for the sake of civility and respect.


I have to say it is one of my main issues with this thread, that and my english I consider to not be good enough for participate in it.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Woaw. I'm surprised by the considerable amount of 15+ chance ratings here

Shantae chances: 0.03%
Okay I'll take a safety margin if it somehow happens instead of giving her a flat zero, but I realistically can't see her getting in Smash. The only way I could see her playable is if Sakurai wants to "represent the indie scene" or something which is very unlikely because of how niche indie characters usually are; as such, I highly doubt they'll going to be considered as worthwhile "special cases" by Sakurai himself.

Realistically the fact she's from a third-party series that's more obscure than most series currently represented in Smash almost makes her a non-contender by default imo. Unless she's supposed to "represent the indie scene" or something then I highly doubt she has any shot for her merits alone considering she's miles away from the third-parties who currently are in Smash when it comes to fame. The very possible addition of Ryu aka Mr. Fighting Game himself would be a further proof that third-party characters in Smash have to be high profile characters even for DLC, and I don't see Shantae as one.

Shantae want: 0%
I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no interest in seeing her playable in Smash whatsoever. I'm cool with third-party guests in Smash as long as they're high profile characters who are easily recognizable by most people, and as I already said I don't see Shantae as one. I don't care about how good her games are, nor about her moveset potential (which would never be the primary reason to include anyone imo), I just don't see anything special about her as a third-party character choice.

A trophy cameo? Okay that's fine.
An Assist Trophy? It's already pushing it tbh.
A playable character? No thanks.

She would just feel random and out of place in Smash imo. The CommanderVideo trophy is enough to represent Nintendo's care about indie developers imo. I also don't really like her design.

(Insert 75% of original wa... oh wait it's a 0% want rating anyway

Inkling prediction: 49.37%
People will point out how much Nintendo already treats Splatoon like if it was one of their established flagship franchises, and how putting a playable Inkling in Smash is the last thing they have to do.

Nomination:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Shantae
Chance - 0.5%
Unfortunately I don't see it happening, As an Indie she's probably one of the more notable ones and she probably has the best history with Nintendo of all the indies.....but after Ryu we're probably not getting many more 3rd parties and I think the competition will be too strong for her.

Want - 45%
I do like Shantae, I'm not crazy about her but I'd be happy if she made it in.

Nominations:
Bayonetta x3
Chibi Robo x2

 

[Raheem The Dream]

I 100% want #ShantaeForSmash!

 

[XStarWarriorX]

Shantae:
Chance is 10%
Want is 100%

Well a character i support that has no shot due to being unknown in JP, and i believe 3rds have to be iconic. She sadly is not, she has good things goin for her tho. (mashiro Sakurai pls, gimmie a cool dlc char.)

Inkling prediction: 45% Eyyy a character from a non established franchise is being asked for, because bandwagon and not knowing their limitations. Should be skewed.

Snake x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Shantae's chances are better than Reimu's, at least!
Chances: 10% Shantae would be a fun inclusion, and from what I know (Since I've yet to play one of her games), using her hair and genie powers could make her a versatile fighter. However, I think I might have to say that if we get Ryu, her chances would be hurt for DLC in this game. She could make it next time if she was to get more Nintendo associated games under her belt and WayForward promotes her for Smash 5.

Want: 54%. I would not mind her at the least. If anything, I don't want WayForward's voices ignored, so even if she were to get a Mii Costume at the least or just a stage, I'd be fine.

Inklings Prediction: 48.72%

Nominations: Rayman X5
(Bonus nominations due to confusion earlier on regarding a character without a game on a Nintendo platform, not to mention below calculable chances: Black Mage X2, Ridley X2, Henry Fleming (Codename S.T.E.A.M.) X5, Pichu X1 -Thanks for resolving the issue, @ PK_Wonder )

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shantae's chances are better than Reimu's, at least!
Chances: 10% Shantae would be a fun inclusion, and from what I know (Since I've yet to play one of her games), using her hair and genie powers could make her a versatile fighter. However, I think I might have to say that if we get Ryu, her chances would be hurt for DLC in this game. She could make it next time if she was to get more Nintendo associated games under her belt and WayForward promotes her for Smash 5.

Want: 54%. I would not mind her at the least. If anything, I don't want WayForward's voices ignored, so even if she were to get a Mii Costume at the least or just a stage, I'd be fine.

Inklings Prediction: 48.72%

Nominations: Rayman X5
(Bonus nominations due to confusion earlier on regarding a character without a game on a Nintendo platform, not to mention below calculable chances: Black Mage X2, Ridley X2, Henry Fleming (Codename S.T.E.A.M.) X5, Pichu X1 -Thanks for resolving the issue, @ PK_Wonder )

I just finished checking all of the predictions from Impa since @Smasher 101 was unavailable to do them today, and you actually are the winner of FIVE MORE from that. Today is your lucky day.

 

[4theRECORD]

Shantae.
...Who?

Shantae(Shantae)
Chance:1%
I'm being pretty generous here. I mean, she's a third party who doesn't have a global release or a high number of sales. I get that her fanbase in ridiculously vocal, and a number of famous Youtubers and such have said stuff on her existance, but that's it.
I can stand a third party in Smash if they're really famous and their names make people who don't know gaming well turn their heads, but does Shantae really fulfill that? I don't think so.

Want:1%
I live in Japan.
I can't play her games.
And she's a third party.
Why should I care?
I'm throwing that 1% in because her design is at least nice.

Predictions:Inkling 50%
I honestly don't know what to expect, so I'll just take the middle.

Nominations:
Ray(Custom Robo) x5

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Man the shantae support is awfully low not surprised but I expected her to at least to better than her current standings

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Shantae
Chance: 0.01%
I will agree with BluePikmin11's sentiment on something; we can't go on absolutes with 0%'s and 100%'s. Look at Dark Pit and Dr. Mario; we gave them 0%'s because we never thought Dark Pit would make it in and disregarded him due to the fact that he was a palette swap and a clone and we didn't think Dr. Mario was going to get in before Mewtwo and even Roy for nearly similar reasons.
That being said, Shantae still has a lot holding her back.
Her support in the US is rather decent, but she is pretty obscure in Japan. Being a third party character, this hurts her chances tremendously with lack of support in other areas.
The main thing that is really holding her back is iconic / legendary status. Technically, no such rule actually exists, but you have to sit and ask yourself if the character is legendary or worthy enough to be placed alongside gaming icons like Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man. Shantae is a character that really can't be placed among these icons due to a lack of iconic status. As for legendary, she really isn't that either. Characters like Bomberman, Simon Belmont, Ryu, and veteran Snake are legendary and iconic, Rayman is kinda legendary, Phoenix Wright and Professor Layton are pseudo-legendary. Then we have Shantae, who is really an icon for indie developers; I don't think that is a good enough push for her to get in before the characters I just mentioned.
I am aware that her developer said that they want her in the game, but a lot of developers do. Suda 51 wants Travis Touchdown in Smash and some devs from Microsoft want Banjo-Kazooie in the game, so this really isn't special. You can chalk up Snake here, but at least he is, again, iconic and legendary and the person who requested to put their character in the game, Hideo Kojima, is a friend of Sakurai.
Overall, I think some of these scores that I am seeing right now are a bit inflated.
Want: 0%
I am not interested. I haven't played her games and I don't feel the need to play them.
If I really wanted an indie character, my first choice is honestly Shovel Knight, and even then I would give him a 50% want.

Inklings Prediction: 26.46%
No idea.

Nominations: Phoenix Wright 5x

 

[BigShad]

Man the shantae support is awfully low not surprised but I expected her to at least to better than her current standings

She really ain't well-known, to tell the truth. But the fact that she has poll popularity and was with Nintendo for a long while gives enough reason to do some research on her and her games, and she's a far more sane character than stuff like Freddy Fazbear or whatever the hell. Why? Because she's been with Nintendo for a long while.

I forgot to mention in my post that she DOES have some Japanese support, namely from Ken Sugimori, art director of Pokemon.
I really don't know why some guys are getting pissy all over speculation either, lol

 

[FalKoopa]

SHANTAE:

CHANCE: 0%

Shantae unfortunately has lot going against her to be considered even a contender for DLC. Being a 3rd party, not completely exclusive to Nintendo, and being a relatively small name compared to the 3rd Party characters we've seen in Smash in some form - Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man are household names, and Ray Man, Ryu, Snake are gaming icons in their own right. She seems an odd (wo)man out among these. Not to mention her newer games don't have a Japanese release either. (A shame, I think she would sell very well there.)

Captain Syrup is somewhat similar to her in design, too and is a Nintendo character. But she's a pipe-dream, unfortuntely.

As to what BluePikmin said, well, I don't care that much if my rating proves to be wrong later on. I gave Doc a very low rating in the previous RTC, and lol, he's now one of my favourite additions in Smash 4. In any case, I'll be too busy enjoying the ride to care that I was wrong.​

WANT: 60%

Wouldn't mind her inclusion, wouldn't mind her absence. That said, her design is neat, and her games are fun so I give her an extra 10%.

INKLINGS PREDICTION: 15%
Too Soon?

NOMINATIONS: IVYSAUR × 5

 

[smileMasky]

Shantae
Chances 2% (I'm being a little nice here)
Sorry Shantae fans but her chances are very slim even with the ballot we need more audience all around the world we really have not seen a lot of love for the Indie games side from only a few trophies. She needs to reach a lot more people then just here in NA and I think Europe to get in it's not right just putting some one really obscure and from and indie game as well really shot down her chances.

Want 0%
I just don't see it happening ya sure she has uniqueness to her but I'd rather not want her. Also I did not play her games I did not even know she existed until the ballot ._. . Really Sorry Shantae fans

Nomination
Django x3
Quote x2

And I know what you might be thinking to Hypocrite you are voting for obscure characters yourself I would like to say I want to see the rating of these 2 either good or bad I just want to see everyones opinion that's all.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Way too many high chance ratings. I mean really. 40%?

Chance 1%
a third party character with very little legacy. Apparently she is also non existabt popularity-wise in japan. Plus she has been on hiatus for a very long tine. She is very very small and surrounded by much bigger fish not being weighed down by being 3rd party.
Pretty much another bandwagon that will likely fall off soon like shovel knight already has.

Want 5% ehh havent played her game but i guess she could be decent.


Inkling predictuon 45% expecting big things


Noms (same as always)
2 wonder red
2 ridley
1 viridi

 

[BluePikmin11]

Geez the ratings are all over the place. :O
I'm really liking it.

I have some things to say:
Please refer to my signature if anyone needs a reminder that he can change his stance with third-parties VERY EASILY.
Even with the interviews Swampasaur brought, it doesn't change the fact that he can still change his mind like with he did with fighting characters earlier. It's not going to be fun at all if were to bring up the "iconic" argument every time we rate a non-iconic third-party character.

Also if you're here to give a very low rating just to balance out the ratings, just don't rate at all, that isn't an honest rating. (I regretfully did this when it came to Muddy Mole back in the day, I've gotten a lot of flak for it.)

And I'm sure Risky's Revenge has been released in Japan.
I've seen multiple articles stating about it's release two years.

It appears there seems to be no Japanese release.. hmm.

 

[Warlock*G]

I feel like people vastly over estimate shantae's chances, third party characters make up less than a 10th the roster, only the most prominent ones get in, shantae is not one of those, plus shes not from a major company.

I'd say being third party cuts her chances by 90% just on that alone, her odds are further cut by her obscurity, and not being from a major company.

And I for my part feel like you are mistaken. Everybody's got feelings.

 

[Freduardo]

Shantae:

Chance: 10%
Want: 55%

Inkling Prediction: 37.5%

Nominations: DLC ATs.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Shantae

Chance: 2%
Honestly, there are people being way too generous to the genie. The only thing she has going for her is an OK popularity. She's not the most popular or requested indie, nor is she legendary as all the other 3rd parties we've had until now.

Want: 0%
I love 3rd parties, but they got be super iconic for me, otherwise the whole point of the game being a Nintendo All-Star + Videogame All-Star as guests is lost

Inkling prediciton: 40%

Nominations:
Sceptile x5

 

[SL the Pyro]

Chance: 25%
Come on, cut Shantae a little slack.

Pros:
+Lifetime: Believe it or not, Shantae has been around since the Game Boy Color. That's a longer lifetime than a lot of the other submissions can boast.
+Legacy: With the exception of Half-Genie Hero, Shantae has primarily been on Nintendo consoles - three games so far, one of which was (again) on the Game Boy Color. People constantly compare Shantae to other indie characters in the ballot, and on this front she has them all beat handily.
+Popularity: The last two Shantae games have been wildly successful, and the next one in production had over $800,000 pledged to its Kickstarter (in comparison, Shovel Knight had a little over $300,000). Japanese game company Inti-Creates is also working with WayForward on artwork for Pirate's Curse and Half-Genie Hero, and Risky's Revenge is available on the Japanese iOS, showing that Shantae does have a following from the Japanese side of things.
+Playability: Shantae has a ton of moveset potential. Be it her dances/transformations from the first two games or her pirate gear from the third, she would bring a lot of unique stuff to the table.
+Exposure: Lest we forget that Masahiro Sakurai pulled this very same stunt with Marth and Roy from Fire Emblem back in Melee, and it got the Americas quite interested in the series to the point where they started localizing the games. There's no reason it wouldn't work the other way with Shantae, and it would likely end with both Nintendo and WayForward lining their pockets with Half-Genie Hero's eventual release.

Cons:
-Obscurity: If there's one thing that's really working against Shantae, it's this. The indie market was not a kind business before downloadable games really took off, so WayForward had to get crafty by including the first Shantae game in a package with Resident Evil Gaiden (way back when Capcom was still bro-tier); it was really hard to come by because of this, but those who got it were not disappointed. And to be entirely fair to WayForward, now that they went full-on Indie they've gradually been turning this problem around, though whether it happens fast enough for Shantae to be considered for Smash remains to be seen.
-Competition: While Shantae realistically should have good chances based on her legacy with Nintendo alone, the sheer popularity of the other candidates like Banjo & Kazooie, Shovel Knight, the old Smash veterans and the plethora of Nintendo's other IPs overshadows her pretty hard.

Want: 100%
I loved the Shantae series, and I love unique, gimmicky characters. And if I'm being honest, with Lucas' DLC announcement, I've got everyone else I could want in the roster already; if Shantae made it in, I would be happy as a clam. She doesn't really have as much riding against her as everyone thinks, though it's still enough that it's not going to happen without the fanbase really banding together.

----------

Inkling
Prediction: 30%
A high prediction based on the other people's scores, but I personally have no love lost for the Inklings, and I'm not expecting Sakurai to consider them. This isn't like with Roy who already had a pre-existing series; Splatoon is something new and we don't know how it's going to end up. If the Inklings make the roster but Splatoon flops, Nintendo is going to look really stupid.

----------

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Shantae

Chance - 0.05% - A snowball's chance in Sequin Land. Being indie and therefore not quite as notable as some of the third parties makes me think she'll be avoided for now.

Want - 95% - That said, she's probably my most wanted third party at the moment. The concept of a character with a small variety of drastic yet watered down transformations really just appeals to me.


Inkling Prediction - 18.39% - Who knows. They're already pretty darn popular, but the game hasn't even been released yet.

Nominations

New Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Shantae
Chances: 20%
There are more big characters in the ballot, and we don't know how many DLC will be... for me, she is almost between 6th and 10th place.

Want: 40%
She looks intersting, she is a GB character, her games are fun, she is "alive" as she has games right now and in development..

Inklings
predictions: 30%
For me, they are in 5th place =P

Nominations

Rayman x2 (4rd place)
Quote x1 (6-10th place)
Bub/Bob 1x (10-15th place, but more likely than other things)

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Shantae

Chance - 15%
Want - 45% Meh. I've not played her game but she does look interesting. I have other prioritized preferences though.

Predictions:
Inkling - 77.48%

Nominations:
Snake x2
"Captain Falcon's theme" x2
Concept: Shadow Moses stage, music and Grey Fox AT included with Snake x1

 

[Deleted member]

I want to say that it is possible Nintendo of america could put in good word for the indies so the possibilityisnt out of the water

 

[Pureownege75]

Shantae
Chance: 0%
Not a chance. Sakurai has said that the only way a 3rd Party character will get in is if it's a big deal. Shantae is not even remotely close to the likes of Mega Man, Pac-Man, Sonic, Snake, and Ryu. She has zero presence in Japan. People argue that neither did Little Mac, but at least he had a release over there, regardless of how popular he ended up being. In order to get in, she'd need to get an incredible amount of votes, which she won't.

Want: 0%
If we are to get a new 3rd Party character, I want them to be a big deal. If we get an Indie like Shantae, it'll open the flood gates for even more Indies to push for their characters, which is something I'm already sick of as it is. I'm sure her games are great, but she isn't Smash caliber, there is no way around that. She's a nobody, and the only nobody's that should be in Smash are the ones owned by Nintendo.

Inkling Prediction: 65%

Nominations
RH character x3
Themed Stage packs x2

 

[War Anvil]

SHANTAE
Chance: 20%
She could be extremely unique what with all the various choices she has for attacks, and WayForward's been very buddy-buddy with Nintendo. Also, her personality could definitely bring something to the table. However, it's not like she's as popular as Rayman, King K. Rool, Impa, Bomberman, Sceptile, and the like. I believe her objectively greatest chance is if the director of a future Smash title looks at her and treats her like Sakurai did .
Want: 100%
In my eyes, she's literally the only indie character that deserves to be playable, let alone get past the cameo stage. Don't like it? Deal with it; Shantae can't just wish up a slippery slope, you know.

INKLING PREDICTION
Chance: 75%; Want: 50%
A bit too soon, but I'd cut these kalamari kids some slack anyway. I'd like it even more if they had @Munomario777's moveset!