Shantae:
Chance - 0.1%
This shouldn't need much explanation. It's pretty telling when the most compelling reasons anyone can give why she would have a ghost of a chance all start off like..."But what if?" What if Sakurai changed his stringent third party criteria that supposedly held back even Rayman, and that Ryu only solidifies further? What if she got added and became famous in Japan? What if WayForward and Nintendo worked together? What if she somehow stood out from every other indie hawking their character for obvious exposure reasons? The only reason she's even this high is because at least her games are on Nintendo systems, which is more than can be said for certain other third party requests and the biggest rival first party request (only just realized I could rate 1%>, by the way, otherwise my Banjo score would've been 0.01%).
I pretty much agree with your sentiments, as much as I'd want to set the bar less stringent for characters who've put their effort forth. Though if this much is true, then I'll ask why you're giving Shovel Knight the pentavote treatment every day? I mean, yeah, I want Shovel Knight so much that he was my 2nd ballot vote. But he pretty much comes from the same place as Shantae ATM.
RATINGS
Shantae
Chance - 20.5%: Really, she's got some nice factors favoring her amongst the other indies & perhaps other 3rd parties. However, her supporters and her publicity really needs to put more weight out behind her if they're already motivated to beat her paramount odds. I think the two detractors that are most apparent are her obscurity within Japan and her status as an indie icon.
Shantae has some vigorous support shown across the US poll results and she maintains a consistent presence around forums and social media claimed to the Smash community. In fact, Shantae often breaks Top 10 spots in character polls, which already makes her a sturdy contender if we were to cut all requests through Western countries. That frequency's got to make her pretty noticeable.
However, her games have never been released outside of Japan, so the least amount of support she has to Nintendo's native country only makes a splash within a sea. Granted, Sakurai has shown not to be partial to Japan, as evident by Little Mac and Duck Hunt. I'm sure he'd consider Shantae the same terms, but those two characters were less of a chore to implement due to being 1st parties & there are tons more characters in the ballot that they would be more familiar with their material to implement (hopefully without doing something sleazy like fudging the results to a preferred character if Shantae were to hypothetically lead.) Hopefully, Inti Creates localizing The Pirate's Curse & Half-Genie Hero will grow her fanbase over there. Even without that, I would think turning the tides with Shantae's popularity to the Japanese fanbase would be great. Just like they did to us with Fire Emblem and Earthbound.
Then we have her status as an indie character, which charts into some really complicated, unverifiable waters (y'know, cuz' she's a genie pirate! *honk honk*) Historically, Shantae's games have been blundered with poor release timing and strenuous production constraints. Though she's managed to maintain much fame, competition is already tight with indie contenders, most notably Shovel Knight and maybe Quote. We know Sakurai's maintained an obdurate stance on 3rd party criteria, as they must be legend caliber. Given the paradigm of 3rd parties we have (not to mention the possibility of Ryu reinforcing it), all have been pioneers in their genres or have remained extremely iconic for decades.
The lot of 3rd parties, Shantae unbarred, mostly have borrowed gameplay concepts from franchises already in Smash.
While they are certainly original, they are by no means revolutionaries. Yeah, WayForward's been doing an extravagant job cutting down like 50% of her development phase for Sora/Namco with all the concept art. Though it does beg the question, is Shantae really all that notable if its already difficult getting people to recognize her? That might come off desperate to Sakurai.
Shantae's fans have already attested to the oodles of potential she has. And they are more qualified than me to speak on her behalf. Though I'll still give my piece off of theirs'. Right off the bat, Shantae can use her ponytail as her main means of attack (what now, Dixie?) This would give her an edge in nimbleness and range. Not only that, but she can use her hair to levitate. She has a lot of fire-based magic at her disposal thanks to her mother's genie heritage. She has the ability to transform into numerous animals, probably involving some belly-dancing magic entrancements. Don't forget her pirate arsenal of canons, blunderbusses, scimitars, flying-hat, and more I'm probably forgetting.
Want - 87%: Before I begin, I would like to refer back to my early point about Sakurai's 3rd party criteria. Would I like to see this rule change? Yes indeed! For the most part, the exceptions people observe around these are thoughtform from speculators. They aren't inscribed in some holy epitaph wedged in a manila folder somewhere in Sakurai's desk. It would make the process easier for many great characters if the fans didn't take it so seriously, for one (myself included, as much as I try to stray away from these.) Secondly, the ballot was made for us, the fans. So even if the masses want friggin' Baby Metal Wireframe Bubsy the Bobcat-hog Jr., then Sakurai and his team will make that come true as a token of gratitude. Thirdly, which also ties in with why I think we
deserve an indie character in Smash,
it would be extremely inspiring for every indie dev out there to see their oh-so miniscule character make it into the cast of Nintendo all-stars.
It shows that no matter how little our efforts amount, how small our profits reap, how futile our ideas are celebrated, you're still one of us. The people behind many of those games are very talented and can create a damn good game that can even be classic-worthy. But no, only the AAA übermensch can only be legendary enough for Smash. And whoever makes it will forever be enshrined as a pioneer of the indie community. Commander Video's cameo as a trophy and Nintendo's support of indies already shows their willingness. So let's make it as big as we know we can.
Personally, I would receive Shantae very warmly over many other popular character choices. Heck, her games I'll probably play some day and it looks like something I would fall in love with if I tried. She brings a legacy of quirky, vibrant fun and adorableness. Pretty likeable character if you ask me.
The main reasons why I don't support her result from my indifference and preference over other characters. I guess the draft of obscurity has caught me up a bit. I mean, I recognize her. But I don't know **** about the character to through a vote behind her. While I laud Shantae, if it came down to a tussle between Shovel Knight and Shantae, the Blue Burrower can have her eat sod. That's my preference and I'm happy to see Shovel Knight rivaling King K. Roll in many poll preliminaries. That says a lot, considering he and Shantae basically have the same odds.
PREDICTION
Inkling (Yay, I get to use something other than that monotonous pale blue for once! Beat it, default male Inkling!)
Chance - 55%
Want - 95%
NOMINATIONS
Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
Galacta Knight x2
