Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Troykv

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Ken Full Alt:

Chance: 3%

This idea was more likeable before Ryu's revelation.

Want: 70%

Would be really cool

Genei Iburoki #FE

Chance: 1%

This has the Sakurai bias (maybe? We don't know his opinion about this game) in his side... But also is basically a Lana in a worst situation.

Want: Abstain

Mixed opinions, I LOVE the idea to see FE expanding its original limits... But I don't want that FE go to the full weeabo road.

Predictions:

Rundas: 2.3%
Baby Mario: 1.4%

Nominations:

Idolm@ster Mii Costume x3
Rerate! Shantae x2
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Ken alt:
Chance:0.1%
It didn't happened when Ryu was revealed and i don't think it's going to happen now.

Want:50%
To quote Ness: "Okay"


--------------------------
Before anything, i want to make a PPG joke here:

"Fire Emblem. And Shin Megami Tensei. Crossing over.

These were the perfect ingriedents for an Atlus game on the Wii U.

But Atlus accidentally added an extra ingredient to the conjuction.

IDOLS!

*Laboratory explodes*

Thus Genei Ibun Roku #FE was born!"

Well anyway, onto the rating.

Hayao Miyasaki's Worst Nightmare rep:1%

@CaptainAmerica sums up my feelings perfectly in chance. (i only gave a 1% because im feeling generous).

Want:0%


All i wanted was Marth, Ike and Roy back...
-----------------------------
Abstaining on predictions today
-----------------------------
Noms:
K.Rool X5.
 
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Yomi's Biggest Fan

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I was going to do a whole write up about Genei Ibun Roku #FE and how would a character from the game works, but @ Tikivoy Tikivoy said basically everything I've wanted to mention. Plus, watching a mediocre Adam Sandler film today doesn't put me in the right mood to do so. Time to crack the case and get this over with.

Ken Alt

Chance - 0% - Never going to happen and never will. It should have been included with Ryu to begin with and the chances of it being non-free DLC is nonexistent.

Want - 30% - Would like it to happen, but it will take too much work. Plus having a Ken alt would be a cheap way of including him without his trademark flaming playstyle.


Genei Ibun Roku #FE and NOT Shin Megami Tensie x Fire Emblem

Chance - 2% - I'll admit, it's far too late for any content of this game to be DLC like anything from Fire Emblem Fates. Plus the over exaggerated hatred for the game from Fire Emblem and Shin Megami Tensei elitists alike is probably what would hurt the chances of it happening. Several of the main characters have nonexistent ballot support at the moment, mostly due to that aforementioned internet backdraft.

Want - 60% - I feel that I'm basically the only Fire Emblem and Megaten fan that's actually looking forward to the game instead of harshly calling it weaboo crap since day one like the bandwagoners. That said reaction reminds me of how people felt about Wind Waker during its initial trailers and people great to love it once the game itself came out. I think the same can easily happen to Genei Ibun Roku #FE in the future since the developers are putting so much work in the game's budget to stay true to its idea of being in a modern Japanese world.

That being said, I would be fine with either Itsuki (who has Edgy Chrom as his partner) or Tsubasa (who's most likely going to be the "Elma" of the game) in Smash either as DLC or Smash 5 newcomers. This is going to be the closest thing to having a playable JoJo character in Smash since I can imagine the Mirages acting as stands in addition to the usage of Dual Attacks and the Megaten spells. And I can guarantee you that despite having elements of Fire Emblem and Shin Megami Tensei, the game is considered it's own thing like Kingdom Hearts (Ever heard people calling Kingdom Hearts a Final Fantasy game?).

So before I end my reasoning for these misunderstood rising stars, I'll just leave this "lovely" image here.




Predictions

Rundas - 3%

Baby Mario - 1%


Nominations

Mini-Kangaroo x5
 

Rockaphin

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Ken Alt:

Chance: 4%
Want: 100%

Probably one of my top picks for a potential alt. Ken is one of my favorite Street Fighter character. I was hoping to see an Evil Ryu color or a Ken alt for Ryu. This would probably only happen if a future alt costume pack were to be available for purchase, which I think is possible, but unlikely.

FE X SMT Rep:
Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

Nominations:
Saffron City(N64) x2
Paper Mario Theatre Stage x3
 
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Koopaul

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Ken Alt
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%
So far we haven't had any alts for DLC so I'm not even sure Sakurai has something like that planned. I wouldn't mind if it happened but its not something I'd be excited for.

FE X SMT
Chance: Abstain
Want: 0%
Dear lord no. The moment I saw this game I hated it.

Nominations
Barbara ×5
 

Delzethin

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Dude, what are you doing here? Don't you know what they do to clones around here!?

...Oh, as an alt of your buddy? Okay, I think you're safe then.

--

Concept: Ken Alt for Ryu

Chance: 20%
The big question here is whether we'll still see new costumes for non-Mii characters. It hasn't happened yet, but I still feel like there's a decent chance. Somewhere in the 40s or high 30s, probably. From there, it's a matter of if Sakurai would be up for making alts for third party characters and if Capcom would be up for it. The former is hard to call, but with how open Capcom has been with Smash so far, I bet they'd be up for the latter.

For now, I can't call it likely, but it can still definitely happen if the right things fall into place.

Want: 40%
Interested mainly because other alts would come with it. Ken himself I'm only tangentially interested in because I don't use Ryu. >_>


Concept: Character from Genei Ibun Roku #FE

Chance: 2%
The crossover no one saw coming is getting implemented in a way no one saw coming, and it's been...divisive. Personally, I'm really interested in this one and I'm waiting to see how it ends up.

That itself is irrelevant for Smash, though...because it won't even be out in Japan until next year. The Smash Ballot closes in two months, too early for anyone from the game with the clunky title that'll hopefully sound better in other languages to get any real presence. Sakurai has hesitated on characters from brand new IPs already (Isn't that right, Inkling costumes?), meaning we won't see anyone that way, either.

Unless something about as weird as the things we've seen in the games happens...I wouldn't count on it.

Want: Abstain

I can't give a very fair judgment on any character from a game we've only seen a little of so far, now can I?


Rundas Prediction: 4.12%
A character from a franchise starved for newcomers...but most of the fanbase is focused on the ones that didn't make it.

Baby Mario Prediction: 2.75%

Is anyone asking for this one? Seriously, I haven't even seen a blip of support.


Nominations:
Concept: Golden Sun Stage x5

If Isaac is in the cards, what chance is there of a new stage accompanying him?
 
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With Bandanna Dee's rerate, he's now higher than in the bottom of the top 10 of want, now beating Ridley and Dixie Kong!


http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/917206RTCDLCTop10want8.png

-----

Ken alt for Ryu chances: 0.15%
We have yet to see alts for non-Mii characters (at this point I'm kinda doubting it's happening), and it would be a kinda bad consumer practice to sell alternate skins for characters hidden behind a paywall by themselves, unless they're willing to add alts for free. Also, maybe Ken playing exactly like Ryu may be seen as a disservice by Sakurai himself.

Ken alt for Ryu want: 15%
Not sure if Ken fighting exactly like Ryu seems right.

-----

SMTxFE character chances: 0.08%
A spin-off between Fire Emblem and a third-party series, which is yet to be released, getting a character in Super Smash Bros.? Yeah, not happening.

SMTxFE character disapproval: 100% (0% want)
No, NO!! The idea of an unreleased spin-off getting playable representation in Smash makes me cringe. It would really mean that Sakurai would have sacrificed his own soul on the altar of MUH RELEVANCE RECENCY!!!!1!1!! when we have no idea of how the game will be received. And the fact it doesn't appeal to me at this point doesn't help either. Now a Mii costume for non-intrusive promotion, I would be fine with it, but a fully-fledged playable character? No god, please no.

-----

Rundas prediction: 2.38%
A character who's extremely minor for the franchise as a whole, still very minor for the Prime Trilogy as a whole, and even relatively minor in his own game where he dies early? Doomed, if it wasn't for the fact some people are literally scraping the bottom of the barrel for a Metroid newcomer, considering Ridley and Dark Samus are apparently ineligible... which is ironic because my predicted chances score for Rundas is lower than the scores those two actually got, ahah.

Baby Mario prediction: 2.88%
A potential Mario variant who's letting most people apathetic when it comes to Smash.

Nominating:
Returning stage: Meta Crystal x5
 
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Ken alt for Ryu
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 0% (I already paid for Ryu, I don't want to pay for his alt separately)

SMTxFE character
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
No more Fire Emblem characters.

Rundas prediction: 2%
Baby Mario: 1%

Nominations:
Saffron City 5x
Meta Crystal 5x
 
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Genie I Boo Rocky
Chance: 2%

Doubt this will have the Ballot support to succeed

Want: 60%
It will most likely be Itsuki, who is cool, but a bit boring.
Tsubasa would interest me because of Pegasus, and the rest have amazing moveset potential as well.

Ken Alt
Chance: 2%

We have no precedence on DLC alts let alone third party ones.

Want: 100%
Real alts? Yes please (Also Ken vs. Luigi would be hype)

Rundas: 2.6%
Muh Sylux

Baby Mario: 1.9%

NEW CONCEPT APPROACHING!

Xenoblade in Smash speculation mostly relies on Xenoblade X upcoming.
But with the original re-releasing on WiiU, we might overlook characters from the original.
That's why the new concept I'm nominating is:

A second Xenoblade-character from the original game x5

This way, we can rate the Rikis, Dunbans, Sharlas and Melias in one go, to see how the original game's cast measures up against the new X-cast.

This concept is at the very bottom of the nom-list though, so some help might be appreciated.
 

Logo12

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ichance.png
iwant.png

Updated chance and want. @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice
Oh and while you're at it, fix the spacing at Sceptile chance, Takamaru want, and the missing hyphen at Absol want. I was organizing the data and found those errors. thx.

FE SMH thing:
Chance 0%/2 = 0%
Same fate as Fates, these games are out much later than the ballot, so they might not get a lot of support. The game doesn't seem as popular/kid-friendly as ones like Splatoon, so there won't be much for the promotion side either.

Want 0%/2 = 0%
Same as above, not even published, and enough with FE stuff.

Ken Alt thing:
Chance 1%/... wait that's not a character
Very slim chance. One of those concepts which becomes more an more unlikely as time passes.

Want 0%
I HAD ENOUGH WITH RYU. PLZ STAHP.

Predict from abstention Abstain from prediction.

Nomination:
Rerate K Rool x5
 

JackerX

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SMTXFE Character

Abstained

Ken Alt for Ryu

Chances : 5

Want : 100

Baby mario prediction abstained
Rundas 6.78

Nominating Reyn x5
 

LIQUID12A

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Ken this possibly get a high rating?

Chance: 10%
Want: 80%

Costume swaps aren't a thing for DLC yet. Key word being yet, but we don't know if they will happen at all. A character swap, though, is a bit more time consuming because they'd have to being in Ken's VA to recite lines unless they're fine with an X in UMVC3 scenario with Ken.

As for want, alternates are on my wish list for DLC, so sure.

SMTXFE character

Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

Shin Megami Tensei has yet to see any content in Smash, so there is a basis to not expect anything from the SMT crossover with Fire Emblem, which brings up another problem; it's effectively another Fire Emblem character, so you know the whole image surrounding the series own content in Smash as of current.

Now, I'm one of those people who's willing to give this game a fair chance, so don't let that low want rating mislead you. The low rating stems from my own reasoning that FE has enough already.

Predictions:

Baby Mario: 3%
Rundas: 7%

Nominate: Abstain
 

Scamper52596

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Ken Alt
Chance: 3.5%
If Proto Man wasn't an alt for MegaMan and Ms. Pac-Man wasn't an alt for Pac-Man, why should I believe that there's a possibility of Ken being an alt for Ryu? Especially with DLC in the mix. I'll give the concept of a Ken Alt a small score of 3.5%.
Nothing suggests this concept...

Want: 50%
I'm completely neutral on this.


FE X SMT Rep
Chance: 0.8%
I think it's a little too late for this to be a possibility. Even if it was already out I doubt Sakurai would put representation of the game in Smash. I'll give the concept of a FE X SMT representative a small total of 0.8%.
Too obscure with hardly any payoff...

Want: 0.6%
No thanks.
 

Autumn ♫

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Ken alt.
Chance:5%
If we were to get an alt, wouldn't we have gotten it when we got Ryu?
Want:80%
Ken's my favorite SF character, so I'd love to see him playable in some form.

Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem character
Chance:1%
Support for one is almost nonexistent, and it's way too late for one of them.

Want:80%
It looks like Persona, and I'd love to have a Persona-like character in Smash.
 

~Krystal~

True American Heroine
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Ken Alternate Costume
Chance: 0%
Want: 25%

SMT x FE Rep
Chance: 2%
Want: 0%
I'm laughing on the outside, but crying on the inside.

Predictions
Baby Mario: 1.75%
Rundas: 3.6%

Nominate x5 K. Rool Rerate
 
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Ken alt's chances: 5%

Even if we got alternates later on, I think this would have most likely already happened if it was planned to.

Want: 0%

I'm fine with the Koopalings as alts because they can't all be separate characters, but otherwise I actually dislike the idea of having completely different characters as mere alts. If we had to have Ken, I would want him as a separate character, not an alt of Ryu.

SMTxFE character's chances: 0.5%

A crossover involving a third party series and a series a lot of people are tired of seeing characters from, that also won't be released anywhere until after the ballot's already closed. Unsurprisingly, there's also little support for it. I'd be shocked if a character was taken from it.

Want: 0%


I'm not writing the game off yet, but I don't want a character from a game that's not even getting released anywhere for months.

Baby Mario prediction: 3.47%
Rundas prediction: 5.01%

Nominations: King K. Rool rerate x5
 

Laniv

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Ken Alt:

Chance: 0%
He missed the boat when Ryu got in.

Want: 3%
If Ken were to get in, he should be his own character.


SMTxFE Character:

Chance and Want: Abstain

Predictions for Rundas: 4% Chance, 67% Want
Prections for Baby Mario: 2% Chance, 27% Want

Nominate Daisy rerate x 5
 

TCT~Phantom

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Ken Alt
40% Chance
100% Want
Does pay homage to the Street Fighter Series in a cool way. I like the concept of alts...
#FE Rep
25% Chance
100% Want
@ Tikivoy Tikivoy gave solid reasoning that made me bump this up 15% :p.

Nominating Melee Pokemon Stadium x 5
(Could use some help on this :p)
 

Xeno610

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The Directory has been updated.

FE X SMT Rep
Chance and Want:
Double Zeroes

There is no ballot support and I don't see Nintendo promoting the game with a character. A trophy maybe, but not a character on the roster.
As for want, I'm not interested in the game at all.

Ken Alt
Chance:
0%

I am going to make this argument. I doubt that we will see a Ken Alt for Ryu in Smash. A Ken Alt would work as a palette swap for Ryu, much like in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3. If we are talking about something like, as @ LIQUID12A LIQUID12A mentioned, something like Zero's DLC alt being X, then I don't see this as possible.
The Koopalings worked because there were so many of them and Alph is an alt costume due to time constraints. However, I think that Ken would get the Dr. Mario, Lucina, and Dark Pit treatment where he would be a full-on separate clone of Ryu on the roster. They would save some time and make some money through this, at the expense of ticking fans off.
Since we don't have any DLC alt costumes for characters yet, I don't think that this is likely.
Want: 0%
I'm not really interested. I am not interested in him as an alt costume for Ryu because it wouldn't make sense (Ken is pretty a unique Luigi-like character in his games) and I am not interested in him taking up a roster spot. If he was a palette swap, I would be OK with it.

Rundas Prediction: 3.82%
I don't think this will happen.
Baby Mario Prediction: 2.37%
God forbid our rating will make this kid cry annoyingly.

Nominations: Amaterasu 5x
 

Champ Gold

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Ken Alt
Want: 0%
Chance: 0%

Here's the deal, Ken is so radically different from Ryu to where they haven't been clones of each other since Street Fighter 1. Why make him an Alt. there's no point. What we suggested in he Ryu support thread was Ryu having an alternative similar to his UMvC3 one of Ken.

The way to compare this is something similar to :4marth:&:4feroy:
You don't want Roy as an alt of Marth, why should Ken be an exception?

No dice m8

SMTxFE rep
Chance: 5%
Want:55%
Wouldn't mind these exclusives on Smash

image.jpg
 

Aetheri

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Nomnom...
SSB4 is the Last SSB x2
Pirate Ship Stage x2
New Mii Fighter Archetype x1
 

Lord-Zero

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Ken Alt

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

The time for it was with the Ryu reveal and we didn't get it. Asking for it at this point is the same as asking for a Chrom alt for either Marth, Ike or Lucina.

Genei Inbunroku #FE Rep

Chance: 2%
Want: 95%

Just to enjoy the haters' salty reactions. The glorious salt.

Nominations

Rerate Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x5

Predictions

Rundas: 2%

Baby Mario: 3%
 
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Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
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Genei Inbunroku #FE Rep

Chance: 2%
Want: 95%

Just to enjoy the haters' salty reactions. The glorious salt.

This video can be best described as /v/ and the Shin Megami Tensei fanbase's reaction in a nutshell.

Also, Lana rerate? Interesting. :troll:
 
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SMT x FE character
Chance: 0%
Want: -99999999999% (0%)

Ken Alt
Chance: .01%
Want: 100%

Rundas Prediction: 6.58%
Baby Mario Prediction: 2.37%

Nominations:
Klefki x5
 
Joined
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Sorry I'm late guys.

Ken Alt
Chance: 2% - So far we haven't had any Alt costume DLC, so I have my doubts about this concept.
Want: 50% - I'm completely neutral.

FE X SMT Rep
Chance: 0% - If the Inklings were hurt by recency then the characters from this game have absolutely no shot. I don't think we even know who owns the rights to them.
Want: 50% - I have a complete love/hate view of this crossover so far.

Nominations: Smash Tour Ubdates x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 
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CONCEPT: FULL KEN ALTERNATE COSTUME FOR RYU
CHANCE: 5.71%
WANT: 38.03%

CONCEPT: GENEI INBUN ROKU #FE REP
CHANCE: 2.75%
WANT: 31.81%
Next up we're rating Baby Mario (apparently with or without Baby Luigi) and Rundas. Also please predict what score King K. Rool will get tomorrow.
 

Delzethin

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Strange pair tonight. A baby whose incessant crying made a lot of us go mad back in the day...and a bounty hunter whose boss fight left some of us crying ourselves.

--

Rundas

Chance: 6%
Possibly one of the coolest Metroid characters in recent memory...oh, come on, I had to! >_>

Puns aside, Rundas is a fan favorite character with a unique powerset based around ice manipulation. What little chance he has relies on the fact that the road is basically paved for him with Ridley and Dark Samus relegated to non-playable roles, combined with that spark of uniqueness the developers have shown so much interest in before. Unfortunately, he'll be hard pressed to make something of that when his Ballot support is low at best and former Ridley and Dark Samus supporters...are still pushing for Ridley and Dark Samus.

With circumstances like that, it makes you wonder if any chance Rundas had has been...corrupted.

Want: 70%
What can I say? A really interesting character with an equally interesting set of abilities who had one of the most tragic boss fights in the history of Metroid. Part of me hopes we'll eventually see him again in a different game that takes place before the Prime trilogy...


Baby Mario (Bros.?)

Chance: 2.5%
The time-traveling tyke, possibly with his brother in tow. Nintendo fans are very love-hate about Baby Mario, but despite the mixed feelings, he shows up in a decent amount of spinoffs...mostly the sports games. Surely some people have a soft spot for the little guy, right?

...And yet I've only seen a blip of support. Even with all the character ideas getting thrown around, even with all the Mario characters being speculated on and campaigned for...the babies are nowhere to be seen. Most of what I've come across was during Brawl's speculation! With such a small turnout and no reason to suggest they'd be added outside of the Smash Ballot...you get the idea.

Want: 15%

Pass. With so many interesting character ideas out there, Baby Mario is outranked and outgunned with or without his brother accompanying him.


King K. Rool Rerate Prediction: 47.75%

Abandon ship! Abandon ship!


Nominations:

Concept: Golden Sun Stage x5
 

Sid-cada

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Baby Mario

Chance - 0% - Does... does anybody even want this? I mean, what is he going to to? Annoy us to death with his crying?

Want - 0% - Seriously, who came up with this idea?


Rundas

Chance - 0.95% - I can see him coming back, but not before Sylux, who has a confirmed future. That's a big one.

Want - 50% - Meh. No real interest one way or another.


Predictions

King K. Rool - 55.23% - Can see him dropping, but I still think folks will give him above 50%.


Nominations

Non-playable representation for Ballot Runners-up X5
 

~Krystal~

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Baby Mario
Chance & Want: Twin zeroes. (See what I did there?!)
Cute and everything, however, not the third Mario I'm looking for. :smirk:

Rundas
Chance: 0.25%
Want: 0%

Predictions
King K. Rool: 32%

Nominate x5 Slippy Toad
 
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Logo12

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Ooh, something interesting tomorrow.

Rundas:
Chance 6%/2 = 3%

Hmm... Let's see how many detail can I extract from the wiki...

Ice manipulation... Bounty hunter... Deceased... wat?
Okay, he seems to have some potential moveset out there as a substitute of Ice Climbers, but for popularity and relevancy... not so much. Died (corrupted?) in the game, so it's not likely he's gonna appear in the later games (unless he's like another Ridley who can revive every time he's killed). I don't really hear his name outside of this thread either, so chances are really low. Also IMO if they're adding another Metroid character, it will more likely be a villain first.
Want 15%/2 = 7.5%

Sounds like a cool choice, but I couldn't care less about Metroid.

Young Mario:
Chance 0%/2 = 0%
This... this is more obscure than Paper Mario. No potential moveset (without Yoshi), no support, and no reason to actually add him.

Want 0%/2 = 0%
See above.

Not abstaining from prediction this time, this is worth predicting:
K Rool 49.525%
Here's my calculation. Inkling got around a 30% chance drop (42.39 -> 31.89) after the Mii Costume, so I did the same subtraction for K Rool.
But sure, now that K Rool, one of our highest contenders, got such ending, which obviously will make 90% more people disagree with the Mii Costume situation. Because, well, double standards.

Nominations:
Rerate K R- wait, that's happening tomorrow.

Rerate Slippy x3
Rerate Snake x2
 

Tikivoy

Smashing idol~
Premium
Joined
Jun 18, 2014
Messages
887
Location
Locked in Wii Fit Gym since 2014.
Switch FC
SW-4447-4606-8984
Worth mentioning #FE is right next to SMT character in chance :cool:

Rundus:
Double abstain.

Baby Mario:
Chance:12%.
Want:30%. I've never minded him or the other babies in Mario Kart. There's way more characters i'd take over him though.


Prediction: K.Rool 52%. Can see this going up and down.

Nomination: iDOLM@STER costume x5.
 
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,624
Location
France
Rundas chances: 0.01%
A one-off character who is only meaningful to the first third of the game he appears in and dies early? And when the main antagonist of the Metroid Prime Trilogy was most likely judged not worthy of being a playable character and became an Assist Trophy? And an amount of support for Smash which is more or less as meaningful as his significance for the Metroid series as a whole? I'm sorry, but he has no shot, and the only reason why I don't consider him as an absolute impossibility is because he's a Nintendo character.

Rundas want: 0%
I'm sorry but at this point we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel... I mean, are we so desperate about getting a new Metroid character for the sake of a new Metroid character?

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Baby Mario chances: 0.36%
Baby Mario want
: 0.8%

Not much to say here.

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King K. Rool prediction: 56.50%
The chances score will inevitably drop, though I'm still expecting him to remain our second most likely character overall.

Nominating:
Returning stage: Meta Crystal x5

@ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice is the graph in the OP really useful anymore? It only covers 18 characters and many of them had been rerated. I think we can remove it at this point.
 
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