Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

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Midna's chances: 0.5%

Assist trophy.

Want: 20%

Not completely opposed, but not a lot of interest either. To be honest, I think she's fine where she is.

Wolf's chances: 90%

Decided that 99% was a bit too optimistic, but I'll still be very surprised if he misses the cut. He's a very popular veteran, and unlike pretty much every other cut veteran he doesn't have any really major thing holding him back. The most likely character by a considerable margin.

As for want...this score is probably going to seem kind of weird. I'm not the biggest Wolf fan, he's not among my favorite Star Fox characters and is by far my least favorite of the three in Smash, and was one of my least favorite newcomers to fight as in Brawl.

That being said...

Want: 100%

He's an important character who has a mostly different moveset and who shouldn't have been cut to begin with, and there's not really a good reason for me to want him to stay out.

Porky prediction: 2.58%
Guile's theme prediction: 5.30%

Nominations: Fossil Fighter x5
 

LIQUID12A

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Send me an official source that says Assists WON'T become DLC...until then there's no reason to think otherwise....0% ratings are just as irrational as 100% ratings, especially since most 0% ratings are paired with very low want ratings...this argument goes both ways...
You're being a little too optimistic, though seeing that you support three Assists in your signature...it can't be helped and I have no say in that.

If a character is placed as an Assist, it stands to logical reason that the developers are done with the character and have no current plans for them to become playable or anything else. A notable exception to this statement AT-wise is Isabelle, who also became a full Mii Gunner costume(I'm not mentioning Waluigi or Barbara the Bat because all they have are hats), but that's still not the ideal playable status most would want. Once again, if it happens, then I'll gladly eat my words. Until then, there's still a basis for thinking that we won't get AT's as playable DLC, at best as Mii outfits.

If 0% ratings are so irrational, then let's go ahead and rerate everything that has been the victim of 0% ratings, which includes everything below Ice Climbers(though a few characters above them might have received a 0 somewhere) on the highest chance chart, with a new imposed rule of no 0% ratings. It's true that everything has a chance. But some things, such as Tetrominoes, most third parties and Ridley have valid and justifiable reasons for 0% ratings.
 
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shane3x

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I stated clearly I wasn't comfortable giving higher than a 50 in the post you initially quoted. I did not explicitly mention leaks though.

As for Lucina, DP and so on, these are Sakurai adding last minute characters easy to make to buff up the entire roster when there wasn't time to add a fully fledged new character. Its fanservice, not laziness, and is entirely different to choosing them over a fully fledged new character when they presumably have time for both.

As for the ballot, I feel you're just picking at obvious disclaimers so that they wouldn't be adding ridiculous characters.
Very fair point but I am not personally comfortable with the amount of weighting given to the Japanese there; the polls used have considerably fewer votes than US/Euro ones and if you simply aggregate the number of votes a different story is told. I will wait for the international poll being run at the minute to say for certain. I am confident he makes top 5 but not confident he is at the top.

But I will expand. He clearly has massive Japanese support due to being a veteran, and good support on most polls on sites like here and Reddit. I think these are sufficient to give him a good shot overall (in fact, the highest I feel comfortable giving, alongside King K Rool) but I think there are definite negatives:

- Comparatively scarce lack of support near the beginning of the ballot as everyone thought he had a spot guaranteed for advertising the new Star Fox
- Not comfortable suggesting he'd be a popular casual pick, as he got a lot of flak for being similar to Fox and Falco; a more unique character would likely be better received.

And it should also be said I absolutely view popularity as a massive factor in this ballot. Given the size of the ballot, I do not think Nintendo has the time and/or manpower to read through every vote. It's notfeasible in my eyes. I imagine the top X most voted characters without things against their inclusion will be shortlisted, and the team will then choose from them using the votes more closely. Wolf will likely make that shortlist but beyond that I have no idea.
Not seeing anything here which indicates 50% is a baseline without official confirmation, leaks, etc...

Fan service is them being Skins, laziness and lack of time/resources is what made them into characters.

Watching the Smash Ballot Direct again, they clearly use language which suggests popularity is only a factor (and not even directly) and that its more they want suggestions and from those suggestions that pass the standard smash criteria also will be included. Nothing to the effect of "The most popularity characters will get in regardless of if they dont pass Smash selection criteria!"

Just a big big article-post-thing about Wolf chances and "problems":

Veteran Status
1. Japanese community loves veterans.
I suppose this is almost trivial by now. Japanese love veterans, and in polls, they easily dominate the top few.
Lucas 7.90%
Wolf 7.70%
Snake 6.00%
Ice Climbers 5.10%
Roy 4.20%
Pichu 3.00%
King K Rool 3.00%
If something like this is what Sakurai has for the base concept of who's more popular, veterans obviously get an advantage.

Out of these (with Mewtwo taken off from account since he's confirmed at that point), Lucas, Wolf, and Snake is the top 3 mentions when it comes to who to come back. Now Lucas is back, Snake is constantly referenced as "cut for maturity issues"
2. Veterans has a developed fanbase in Smash
This is basically the same point as above, but this is not restricted to Japan. Sometimes the popularity of the character in Smash alone can already outweigh other matters such as the future of the character, which Wolf of course has. This already has been proven by the addition of Roy and Lucas.

Also while this may not apply to those who only have ever played Smash 4, revealing a veteran definitely can appeal to fans.
3. Veterans have a predefined moveset
Like said by many, these characters already have much of the assets in the earlier installments. While developing is not about just dragging the animation from here to there, otherwise Wolf would've made it in the initial roster. What I'm referring is: He has all the designs ready. Other than a potential new character outfit, he pretty much everything in the older games. His moveset, taunts, victory animation, physics, etc. And reanimating/reprogramming them accordingly isn't a big problem. At least there's less time needed to plan new animations, and even if Wolf needs a few change here and there, he doesn't need an entire moveset replan.
Clone Status
4. Wolf is not a clone (not even semi-clone), no matter what you say.
Several researches and statistics and even video proof has proved this: Wolf act VERY differently from Fox and Falco. He is not even close to be a semi-clone.

5. Even if it's true, that's even better!
Like point three, if you have a cloned move (Be it Falco's Bair or Fox's custom Wolf Flash) in this game, you don't actually even need to make the animation! Just changing the hitbox, knockback, whatever property it is, and you already have the said move done. Wolf don't really have much of those, but that's definitely a plus if you still claim Wolf is a clone.
Preballot Over?
Who said that? Sakurai? Nope, he never actually did:
"これからは、あくまでサービスだ"
The most talked topic of the day, one of the thing that makes everyone think Wolf has lost his chance, the other two being PushDustIn and Etika.
Yes, it's "service" till the end. So you tell me Mewtwo Lucas Roy wasn't service at all?
The statement, “From now until the end” indicates that the characters we receive in the future will be directly influenced by the Fighter Ballot. This is because Sakurai went out of his way to explain that Lucas, Roy and Ryu were developed before the ballot was created. ~SourceGaming​
Yeah, that's a fact right?
The following is my opinion: ~Paragraph name​
...oh.
So it's rather obvious for now, this is what PushDustIn THINKS will happen, and does not reflect the truth. Furthermore, this is just some "indication", we don't even know if Sakurai ever meant it, or if he lies, or whatever.

Well, if we want the truth, why don't see the Japanese react on this?
6. It's not necessarily perceived this way
Earlier I've sent this in response of PushDustIn's source of the column:

Well, what I actually saw is, one out of hundreds of people asked "So the characters will be based on ballots now?". I don't see any reply to this, but apparently no one actually cared about that point.
7. The focus of the line
Apparently, when PushDustIn translated the term "fan service", he already know it's vague as hell. Yes it's confirmed by 3 translator, or 1 more including me. But apparently, this term wasn't even mentioned in Japan threads.
View attachment 66023
Yet, this is the highlight of every single piece of news around the Western World.

I mean, even the title of this thread is this:
桜井「スマブラのキャラ配信はあと数体で終わる」​
"Sakurai: Smash will end after a few more characters revealed"

Also let's take a look at the comments:
今度は投稿拳の結果で決まったキャラか​
This time it will be the character decided from the results of the ballot, right?

And this is the only guy I found talking about ballot characters. Wait, actually no:
ウルフ+投稿拳の人気キャラ3体くらいかな​
I wonder if it's gonna be something like Wolf + around three popular votes from the ballot.
And here goes the next point:
8. Wolf have NO chance drop in Japan
While the news is a huge alarm to the Western community, Japan was STILL expecting Wolf to be DLC. Not just simple "expect", but "almost guaranteed". As in "shoe-in", like what you guys used to call Wolf for.

There are already several posts that Wolf is listed "Certain", "Almost Certain", "Entering is a matter of time" in the threads, Miiverse, whatever source found.

And no, Japan is not blind about the news. They have read the article (or at least the summary) with full understanding, and those were the replies. They have a more clear understanding of us. They did not freak out about Wolf's chance. Then, what are we even doing?

----
In short, Wolf has nothing hurt from the article. No native readers of the original article took this as "pre-ballot over". And even if it did everyone still thinks Wolf has the highest chance, if not to support them.
Popularity
Almost missed this point. As said above, yes, the Japanese highly supports Wolf and thinks he's very likely. What about in this community?
Reddit1: 8th
Smashboards: 7th
Reddit2: 5th
Sourcegaming: 3rd
Reddit3: 6th
SSB4Dojo: 4th
Wolf sits in the top 10, or ~3-8th in the polls (interestingly we have 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th placing on these data). When we merge these data together, we get Wolf being in 5th. Not a high number, but there's obvious high demand in here as well.
Nice to see some evidence unlike other peoples "I woke up on the left side of the bed today so Ill vote 0% for no real reason".

Wolf:

Chance: 60%
Want: 25%

Wolf And Solo Midna:

Chance: 13%
Want: 2%

Nominations:
Full Ken Alt For Ryu x3
Paper Mario Theatre Stage x1
Saffron City(N64) x1
I can appreciate even if you aren't the biggest Wolf fan that you recognise that he's quite likely, lot of people can't seem to separate what they (dont) want with what is the reality.
 

IceBreakerXY

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midna changes:50%
People 50% is half.Literally putting 20% and saying it could go either way os crazy.That is why i'm giving midna a 50% as it can go either.It really depends on what the team wants to do with the assist plus twlight midna could still be a character.

Midna want:20%

I perfer vaati but i wouldn't mind midna

Wolf changes:30%

30% sue me.I personally believe the team is done is veterans and we aren't getting wolf.I'm sure if we were we would of gotten him already.I think you all are being to optimistic.Really the direct even said we brought Lucas a popular brawl vet and roy a popular melee vet due to fan demand.So unless they plan to do something like that again with wolf and pichu/young link. I doubt were seeing him.Please quote me on this if i'm wrong but remember this is a double edge sword if i'm dont say i didn't tell you so

Wolf want:70%

He's a cool vet not my favorite but a cool vet who had no right to be cut.Would buy if he was DLC.

porky prediction:4.50%

Slippy x 4
vaati x 1
 

shane3x

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Wolf changes:30%

30% sue me.I personally believe the team is done is veterans and we aren't getting wolf.I'm sure if we were we would of gotten him already.I think you all are being to optimistic.Really the direct even said we brought Lucas a popular brawl vet and roy a popular melee vet due to fan demand.So unless they plan to do something like that again with wolf and pichu/young link. I doubt were seeing him.Please quote me on this if i'm wrong but remember this is a double edge sword if i'm dont say i didn't tell you so

Wolf want:70%

He's a cool vet not my favorite but a cool vet who had no right to be cut.Would buy if he was DLC.
Personally believing in something is fine, although you probably want to expand on why you think they are done with Veterans, is that actually based off anything besides feeling?

There are plenty of reasons why we haven't gotten Wolf or other DLC characters yet. Just because he isn't in yet doesn't mean that suddenly makes all his other extremely strong points suddenly not valid. Remember SFZ is a reimagining of the 64 game and will most likely have a new look/voice which releasing him in Smash would possibly spoil. They've barely done any marketing for the game besides E3 so you'd expect for them to hold off until at least they start talking about the game more closer to its release.

Pichu and Young Link have zero chance in hell of coming back. Who they decide to come back and when can be for various reasons. As mentioned above Wolf has more popularity and Vet status yet has other considerations which means he will come back later on as opposed to right now.

Feel free to go back the last couple of pages and see why Wolf is pretty much the front runner.
 

Aetheri

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You're being a little too optimistic, though seeing that you support three Assists in your signature...it can't be helped and I have no say in that.

If a character is placed as an Assist, it stands to logical reason that the developers are done with the character and have no current plans for them to become playable or anything else. A notable exception to this statement AT-wise is Isabelle, who also became a full Mii Gunner costume(I'm not mentioning Waluigi or Barbara the Bat because all they have are hats), but that's still not the ideal playable status most would want. Once again, if it happens, then I'll gladly eat my words. Until then, there's still a basis for thinking that we won't get AT's as playable DLC, at best as Mii outfits.

If 0% ratings are so irrational, then let's go ahead and rerate everything that has been the victim of 0% ratings, which includes everything below Ice Climbers(though a few characters above them might have received a 0 somewhere) on the highest chance chart, with a new imposed rule of no 0% ratings. It's true that everything has a chance. But some things, such as Tetrominoes, most third parties and Ridley have valid and justifiable reasons for 0% ratings.
Of course I'm being optimistic, otherwise I wouldn't even bother supporting these characters in the first place....
However I'm not in any way expecting any Assist characters to get promoted to DLC...I'm merely stating that saying a character has no definitive chance whatsoever and with absolute certainty that they won't EVER be made as a playable DLC is an irrational way of thinking, especially given the fact that most of these characters are fairly popular, first party characters, who have actually gotten recognition in the game...any rating above 0% shows that said person acknowledges the chances of said character however slim...There is no precedent that these characters will get promoted, while that may be true, but there is also no precedent saying they won't either...Who's to say that Sakurai won't take a second look at these characters? This is Sakurai we're talking about...

This is my baseline for 0%, and any character that fits within the below criteria are not eligible for this game anyways...
-Not a video game Character (Shrek, Goku, Batman)
-Not featured on any Nintendo platforms (Master Chief, Kratos, Sack Boy)
-Not featured in any Video Games (that I know of) (Me, The Queen of England, Moby D*ck)
-Already Playable (See Roster)


Anyways....This isn't the point I'm trying to make....

You're getting slightly irritated by the fact that 100% ratings for Wolf weren't called out by anyone, when characters like Geno and Isaac both had 100% ratings that came from people who gave no logical grounds or reasoning behind said ratings whatsoever, that is what the problem was...whereas Wolf is getting 95%+ ratings all over but yet it is a problem when he gets a couple 100% ratings?...I simply state that if you had a problem with this then you should of also had a problem with any 0% ratings for some characters who seem to have no chance at all, as it is just as baseless as Wolf getting 100%...Sure these characters probably won't happen either way but instead you simply say, 'until I get proven wrong, zeroes all around'...even though you just acknowledged that there is a chance of being wrong...

The hypocrisy is slightly aggravating...A character that actually has legitimate chances of making it as DLC can't have 100% ratings, but characters who most likely won't make it as DLC can have 0% with no problems...even though both still have solid arguments and reasoning behind receiving said ratings...sure I don't really like the idea of Midna or Dark Samus or Ridley getting 0% chance rating but in the long run, sure there is still some solid reasoning behind it despite me not agreeing with it...
 
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Arcanir

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Wolf
Chance: 70%
I still feel he's pretty likely, but I also feel less confidant about him then I did before. At this point, I don't think that he'll be pre-ballot as 2 waves have gone by with no indication that he's in the works. So due to that, he loses quite a bit since that was a primary venue that I felt he'd be made playable through. He does however still have the ballot, and while we can't treat that as a certainty for him, he is making a good showing so far and many would like him back due to being a veteran that many loved. It is a lot more competitive though and it's possible that he could have other characters chosen over him. So while he potentially has a good chance, there are more obstacles for him that I can see pop up now, we just have to wait and see if he overcomes them.

Want: 100%
He's the veteran I'd like to see return the most, hopefully he does make his grand return.

Midna: Abstain
 
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Logo12

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midna changes:50%
People 50% is half.Literally putting 20% and saying it could go either way os crazy.That is why i'm giving midna a 50% as it can go either.It really depends on what the team wants to do with the assist plus twlight midna could still be a character.

Midna want:20%

I perfer vaati but i wouldn't mind midna

Wolf changes:30%

30% sue me.I personally believe the team is done is veterans and we aren't getting wolf.I'm sure if we were we would of gotten him already.I think you all are being to optimistic.Really the direct even said we brought Lucas a popular brawl vet and roy a popular melee vet due to fan demand.So unless they plan to do something like that again with wolf and pichu/young link. I doubt were seeing him.Please quote me on this if i'm wrong but remember this is a double edge sword if i'm dont say i didn't tell you so

Wolf want:70%

He's a cool vet not my favorite but a cool vet who had no right to be cut.Would buy if he was DLC.

porky prediction:4.50%

Slippy x 4
vaati x 1
You're too pessimistic then. You literally just voted a veteran a lower chance than an assist trophy.

There's literally no evidence that they're done with veterans, and my aforementioned advantages for them had already proven why they wouldn't. It's simpler to make. It has a certain appeal to the community.

Besides, who the hell said they must come in a pack? There's already millions of reasons set about why possibly he isn't revealed yet, and how would he be released with. I can assure you Wolf is at least a higher demand than at least Roy, and in Japan, even higher than the newcomers like K Rool. If Wolf really don't get in, it's Nintendo being nonsensical. He has the relevancy, he has the popularity, he has the veteran status, he has the game coming. There's no real reason why he would be left out.
 

LIQUID12A

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You're getting slightly irritated by the fact that 100% ratings for Wolf weren't called out by anyone, when characters like Geno and Isaac both had 100% ratings that came from people who gave no logical grounds or reasoning behind said ratings whatsoever, that is what the problem was...whereas Wolf is getting 95%+ ratings all over but yet it is a problem when he gets a couple 100% ratings?...I simply state that if you had a problem with this then you should of also had a problem with any 0% ratings for some characters who seem to have no chance at all, as it is just as baseless as Wolf getting 100%...Sure these characters probably won't happen either way but instead you simply say, 'until I get proven wrong, zeroes all around'...even though you just acknowledged that there is a chance of being wrong...

The hypocrisy is slightly aggravating...A character that actually has legitimate chances of making it as DLC can't have 100% ratings, but characters who most likely won't make it as DLC can have 0% with no problems...even though both still have solid arguments and reasoning behind receiving said ratings...sure I don't really like the idea of Midna or Dark Samus or Ridley getting 0% chance rating but in the long run, sure there is still some solid reasoning behind it despite me not agreeing with it...
It's been said countless times that 100%=confirmed. Wolf is not confirmed. Even Obnoxshush/Dashizzer, the head honcho of the Wolf thread, didn't give him 100%. He gave him 99%. He acknowledges that Wolf isn't confirmed but gives him very high chances regardless. That's how it should go in this case, since Wolf's chances are still reasonable despite not being a lock at all. As for that last sentence, I'm willing to take the fall when saying these kinds of things and I acknowledge that it's possible, so I don't see anything wrong with that. I'd be admitting that I was wrong. What's the problem?

The difference is that some characters are inherently justified for zeroes while others aren't whether you like it or not. You can't argue a case for Ridley, for instance, because he's a piñata already and it was made clear why. Why anyone would pick the BB Bandit Trio over the main character for an unrepped series to boot is baffling, it's like picking the Masked Lumen Sage over Bayonetta herself as a third party rep(a scenario we saw in practice with Jean Descole's rating). Some concepts such as Tetrominoes are far too random even with the existence of Wii Fit Trainer. And series that are either too niche or seen as well stocked are natural targets for low ratings, which is why Ninten and Owain received loads of zeroes. And of course, Assist Trophies are indicators that the character is most likely not getting an upgrade in this game, because they have pre-established roles, which is also why they support threads for them are unallowed on the main forum(that social forum is called PreDefined Character Support Group for a reason). The inverse of this reason in particular is part of why Isaac supporters are hopeful, because his Brawl AT was cut, leaving him wide open for potential selection. If he were still there, his thread wouldn't exist, plain and simple.

What more do you need?
 

Aetheri

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It's been said countless times that 100%=confirmed. Wolf is not confirmed. Even Obnoxshush/Dashizzer, the head honcho of the Wolf thread, didn't give him 100%. He gave him 99%. He acknowledges that Wolf isn't confirmed but gives him very high chances regardless. That's how it should go in this case, since Wolf's chances are still reasonable despite not being a lock at all. As for that last sentence, I'm willing to take the fall when saying these kinds of things and I acknowledge that it's possible, so I don't see anything wrong with that. I'd be admitting that I was wrong. What's the problem?

The difference is that some characters are inherently justified for zeroes while others aren't whether you like it or not. You can't argue a case for Ridley, for instance, because he's a piñata already and it was made clear why. Why anyone would pick the BB Bandit Trio over the main character for an unrepped series to boot is baffling, it's like picking the Masked Lumen Sage over Bayonetta herself as a third party rep(a scenario we saw in practice with Jean Descole's rating). Some concepts such as Tetrominoes are far too random even with the existence of Wii Fit Trainer. And series that are either too niche or seen as well stocked are natural targets for low ratings, which is why Ninten and Owain received loads of zeroes. And of course, Assist Trophies are indicators that the character is most likely not getting an upgrade in this game, because they have pre-established roles, which is also why they support threads for them are unallowed on the main forum(that social forum is called PreDefined Character Support Group for a reason). The inverse of this reason in particular is part of why Isaac supporters are hopeful, because his Brawl AT was cut, leaving him wide open for potential selection. If he were still there, his thread wouldn't exist, plain and simple.

What more do you need?
It's only been stated by some that to them specifically 100%=confirmed...not everybody thinks this way and goes by this basis...they could feel that a character is a lock without really needing any proof, leaks, or confirmation because this is how they feel, 99% ratings are by those who are confident but still cautious while others are simply going for it saying 'Wolf WILL come back'...because they see the evidence in his favour as enough reason...

either way you kinda missed my point yet again:facepalm:...

I can tell this may keep going back and forth but so I simply ask that you reread what I said previously (and carefully), as I don't want to argue all night...
 
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LIQUID12A

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It's only been stated by some that to them specifically 100%=confirmed...not everybody thinks this way and goes by this basis...they could feel that a character is a lock without really needing any proof, leaks, or confirmation because this is how they feel, 99% ratings are by those who are confident but still cautious while others are simply going for it saying 'Wolf WILL come back'...because they see the evidence in his favour as enough reason...

either way you kinda missed my point yet again:facepalm:...

I can tell this may keep going back and forth but so I simply ask that you reread what I said previously (and carefully), as I don't want to argue all night...

Let's drop it altogether then, since if that isn't your point you aren't being explicit enough with the one you're trying to make.
 
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Sorry for the late reply guys, I've had a stressful day.

@ LIQUID12A LIQUID12A I'm actually not against people handing out 100% scores. I personally don't agree with it but if someone's crazy enough to think a character is all but guaranteed, who am I object? I actually handed out two 100% ratings myself for Roy and Ryu because I couldn't think of a good reason to doubt the leak. The reason why I did not count the 100% on Geno's day is because it was kind of implied to be a joke. He was "likeing" all the posts that were calling him out on it without replying and someone mentioned that he had a reputation for trolling.

Wolf
Chance: 50% - I downright refuse to give ANY character higher than a 50% from now on after the K. Rool costume fiasco. Wolf may seem like the logical choice to us but it's already been heavily established that Sakurai's logic (for better or for worse) is a lot different from the average Smashboards user.
Want: 60% - He's really the only veteran left with no good reason to be cut.

Solo Midna
Chance: 1%
Want: 40%

Nominations: Smash Tour updates x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 
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IceBreakerXY

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You're too pessimistic then. You literally just voted a veteran a lower chance than an assist trophy.

There's literally no evidence that they're done with veterans, and my aforementioned advantages for them had already proven why they wouldn't. It's simpler to make. It has a certain appeal to the community.

Besides, who the hell said they must come in a pack? There's already millions of reasons set about why possibly he isn't revealed yet, and how would he be released with. I can assure you Wolf is at least a higher demand than at least Roy, and in Japan, even higher than the newcomers like K Rool. If Wolf really don't get in, it's Nintendo being nonsensical. He has the relevancy, he has the popularity, he has the veteran status, he has the game coming. There's no real reason why he would be left out.
i'm very much aware of what i did and i very much i'm aware how that may look.But i stick to my guns.I think vet DLC is done.And yes he has all of that but you can say that for alot of vets.All the pokemon reps fit that marker(revelant due to ORAS,Are popular characters in and out of smash,has vet status,Have games coming out),Snake as will.What i'm saying is that this just seems like the classic "all but confirmed" thing we seen before.And i gave the assist a higher score because we dont know anything about assist.Do i personally think were getting an assist as DLC....No.But it could go either way
 
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shane3x

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I wouldn't put 100% as "Confirmed"
i'm very much aware of what i did and i very much i'm aware how that may look.But i stick to my guns.I think vet DLC is done.And yes he has all of that but you can say that for alot of vets.All the pokemon reps fit that marker(revelant due to ORAS,Are popular characters in and out of smash,has vet status,Have games coming out),Snake as will.What i'm saying is that this just seems like the classic "all but confirmed" thing we seen before.And i gave the assist a higher score because we dont know anything about assist.Do i personally think were getting an assist as DLC....No.But it could go either way
Not really. Pichu was just for promotion, Young Link is replaced with Toon Link due to the fact Toon Link now has his own Timeline and series of games where was Young Link appears in OoT and MM. Ivysaur and Squirtle aren't strong enough on their own to be seperate reps yet because Smash 4 chopped transformation mechanics they won't come back as a group either. Snake's only reason for not coming back is due to the Konami/Kojima spat.

Wolf doesn't have anything that logically stops him.

You gave an AT a higher score because you don't know? Solid logic. Really.
 
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Whoops, I guess I'm too late. Anyway, might as we share my two cents even if it doesn't get counted.

Wolf's Chance: 60%
Don't get me wrong, Wolf is still the most likely character to make it in. However, seeing as pre-ballot characters are done, it looks like he has to compete with the rest of the contenders. Luckily for him, he is one of the top most wanted characters and one who has existing content from the last game to make him easy and less pricy to bring back. Things still look good for him, but he isn't quite the shoe-in we thought he was.

Wolf's Want: 50%
Ok, regardless of how different he behaves from Fox and Falcon, just by having the blaster/deflector/Landmaster base for his moves, he's still too similar to them for me to like him. If he were to completely change his special attacks, I may start to be interested in him.

With that said, I'm giving him a 50% want not for me, but because his fans are pretty much in the same boat as us Snake supporters. As such, I feel a little camaraderie toward them and am wanting him back for them. Even if I don't plan to purchase him myself, you got my support guys.

----------

Midna's Chance: 1%
I don't think there's anything else that can be said about her AT status, we can all pretty much agree it more-or-less kills her chance.

Midna's Want: 5%
I wanted her back in the Brawl days but have lost interest since then. Plus, I just don't want to see the NPCs promoted and open a whole can-of-worms in the discussion.
 
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shane3x

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Don't get me wrong, Wolf is still the most likely character to make it in. However, seeing as pre-ballot characters are done, it looks
Based on a translation which had Western Context applied to it when within a Japanese Context can easily mean something else entirely. We don't know Pre-Ballot is done with definitively.

like he has to compete with the rest of the contenders. Luckily for him, he is one of the top most wanted characters and one who has existing content from the last game to make him easy and less pricy to bring back. Things still look good for him, but he isn't quite the shoe-in we thought he was.
If he isn't, literally nobody is. Consider we are likely to get as a conservative minimum of 2 more DLC characters, and a likely of 4 (due to the character bundle #1) the fact Wolf wouldn't be one of those slots is nonsensical and even more so if you believe we are getting anywhere from 4 to 8 more DLC's (which is unlikely).
 
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IceBreakerXY

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I wouldn't put 100% as "Confirmed"


Not really. Pichu was just for promotion, Young Link is replaced with Toon Link due to the fact Toon Link now has his own Timeline and series of games where was Young Link appears in OoT and MM. Ivysaur and Squirtle aren't strong enough on their own to be seperate reps yet because Smash 4 chopped transformation mechanics they won't come back as a group either. Snake's only reason for not coming back is due to the Konami/Kojima spat.

Wolf doesn't have anything that logically stops him.

You gave an AT a higher score because you don't know? Solid logic. Really.
Should be noted that i never said that wolf shouldn't be added just that people are really over estimating him because if "pre-ballot" really is done.IMO he's a wrap.There a lot of threats out there and if the ballot really means as much as we think it means than if he cant even scratch top 10 in reddit/fan polls than idk.Plus we really dont know what japan or europe is voting for.I just think that once again be are seting themselves up for disappointment.Plus quote me if i'm wrong but i cant see him happening.Just my take.

Also note that i never once said that snake was likely or even named young link.For snake and the pokemon reps i just said that they fit the marks that he provided not that i really want them in(tbh i got lucas back so idc whats next in terms of vets).And fyi i gave an assist a 50 because as i said eariler a 50 is indifferent/it could go either way.If you gave a ranking system and you put a 15% and than say a reason is because it can go either way that's kinda crazy.So yes i put midna at 50% because i'm in different or think it can go either way depends if there considering AT and or if they want a zelda rep seeing a twlight midna is still possible
 
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Logo12

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i'm very much aware of what i did and i very much i'm aware how that may look.But i stick to my guns.I think vet DLC is done.And yes he has all of that but you can say that for alot of vets.All the pokemon reps fit that marker(revelant due to ORAS,Are popular characters in and out of smash,has vet status,Have games coming out),Snake as will.What i'm saying is that this just seems like the classic "all but confirmed" thing we seen before.And i gave the assist a higher score because we dont know anything about assist.Do i personally think were getting an assist as DLC....No.But it could go either way
Well, you think. You still have given no constructive proof to support your belief.

Problems with Pokémon is, the characters in are IMPORTANT characters. All of them have a great role and recurring appearances in the game, anime, and movies. Pichu don't really have a role, was in Melee as a "weak, joke character", and is only populated due to nostalgia and cuteness. Also, Pichu isn't near as popular as Wolf, who stays constantly on top 10 if not top 5 in polls across the two languages.
Snake has one if not two issues impeding entrance as I've mentioned earlier, and Wolf has none.

Find a better example next time.

If you seriously think Assists have more chance than a Veteran, you really should check your logic.
 

IceBreakerXY

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Well, you think. You still have given no constructive proof to support your belief.

Problems with Pokémon is, the characters in are IMPORTANT characters. All of them have a great role and recurring appearances in the game, anime, and movies. Pichu don't really have a role, was in Melee as a "weak, joke character", and is only populated due to nostalgia and cuteness. Also, Pichu isn't near as popular as Wolf, who stays constantly on top 10 if not top 5 in polls across the two languages.
Snake has one if not two issues impeding entrance as I've mentioned earlier, and Wolf has none.

Find a better example next time.

If you seriously think Assists have more chance than a Veteran, you really should check your logic.
"If you gave a ranking system and you put a 15% and than say a reason is because it can go either way that's kinda crazy.So yes i put midna at 50% because i'm in different or think it can go either way"
 

Geno Boost

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Wolf chances 90%
i dont need to explain why, because we all know why it is very lickley

Want 100%
one of my main in brawl

Midna chances 0%
assist trophy kills her chances

want 0%
she is kinda "showy" and i dont like having this in smash like Shantae and Bayonetta also i rather have Skull kid and Ganon before her

Nomination:
Nester x5
 
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WOLF
CHANCE: 79.60%
WANT: 84.44%

MIDNA
CHANCE: 3.32%
WANT: 32.67%
Wolf took a heavy fall and although still number one in chance he is now behind both Roy and Ryu scores before they were confirmed. Next up we're rating Porky and the concept of Guille's theme. also please predict what score King Boo and Pichu will get tomorrow.
 

Logo12

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Yes, Pichu has popularity, but not as much as Wolf. Pichu has relevance, but also not as much as Wolf. Saying Pichu is having relevancy because Pokémon has got a new game is a fallacy of division. Unless Pichu got a significant role in the game. "Quote me if I'm wrong".
Snake had popularity, but not relevancy. With the recent game cancelled, inter-company relations messed up, and has much more problems to deal with.
For other pokémon, same story with Pichu.

For the "go either way"argument, yes, there are two possible cases. But that does not mean the cases have equal chance of happening. You pretty much know this already if you didn't give Wolf a 50% chance as well.
 
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Logo12

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WOLF
CHANCE: 79.60%
WANT: 84.44%

MIDNA
CHANCE: 3.32%
WANT: 32.67%
Wolf took a heavy fall and although still number one in chance he is now behind both Roy and Ryu scores before they were confirmed. Next up we're rating Porky and the concept of Guille's theme. also please predict what score King Boo and Pichu will get tomorrow.
Just so you know, Wolf's want had beaten K Rool.
 

shane3x

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Should be noted that i never said that wolf shouldn't be added just that people are really over estimating him because if "pre-ballot" really is done.IMO he's a wrap.There a lot of threats out there and if the ballot really means as much as we think it means than if he cant even scratch top 10 in reddit/fan polls than idk.Plus we really dont know what japan or europe is voting for.I just think that once again be are seting themselves up for disappointment.Plus quote me if i'm wrong but i cant see him happening.Just my take.

Also note that i never once said that snake was likely or even named young link.For snake and the pokemon reps i just said that they fit the marks that he provided not that i really want them in(tbh i got lucas back so idc whats next in terms of vets).And fyi i gave an assist a 50 because as i said eariler a 50 is indifferent/it could go either way.If you gave a ranking system and you put a 15% and than say a reason is because it can go either way that's kinda crazy.So yes i put midna at 50% because i'm in different or think it can go either way depends if there considering AT and or if they want a zelda rep seeing a twlight midna is still possible
Wolf is consistently top 3-5 on various polls and votes across the Internet, no idea where you get cant scratch top ten from. 50% suggests that he has a decent shot at being DLC which AT's don't.
 
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Ooh ooh, we can start on the next one?

Porky's Chance: 10%
I don't think he's got alot of support on the ballot. Low demand means low reason for them to include him.

Porky's Want: 85%
It would be nice to have a non-PSI using character from the Mother series. Porky's full of personality and would be pretty fun to play as.

----------

Guile's Theme's Chance: 1%
If they were going to include his theme with Suzaku Castle, they would have when it was released. I don't see solo music as DLC being an option either, as nice as that would be. It looks like Guile's theme doesn't go with Smash Bros 4.

Guile's Theme's Want: 100%
I was disappointed that we only got multiple version of Ken and Ryu's themes. Street Fighter has an amazing soundtrack and there are many songs I would like in Smash Bros. Guile's theme and the Street Fighter 2 (Ryu's Marvel Vs Capcom theme) are at the top.
 

shane3x

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Ooh ooh, we can start on the next one?

Porky's Chance: 10%
I don't think he's got alot of support on the ballot. Low demand means low reason for them to include him.

Porky's Want: 85%
It would be nice to have a non-PSI using character from the Mother series. Porky's full of personality and would be pretty fun to play as.

----------

Guile's Theme's Chance: 1%
If they were going to include his theme with Suzaku Castle, they would have when it was released. I don't see solo music as DLC being an option either, as nice as that would be. It looks like Guile's theme doesn't go with Smash Bros 4.

Guile's Theme's Want: 100%
I was disappointed that we only got multiple version of Ken and Ryu's themes. Street Fighter has an amazing soundtrack and there are many songs I would like in Smash Bros. Guile's theme and the Street Fighter 2 (Ryu's Marvel Vs Capcom theme) are at the top.
Everything goes with Guiles Theme!
 
D

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Guest
Round 1... Fight!

Sonic Boom!

Guile's Theme

Chance: 1%

In case you haven't noticed already, the only Street Fighter songs included are three different versions of Ryu's and Ken's themes. In the unlikely event that additional music packs become a thing, I wouldn't be surprised if Guile's memetic theme happened to be one of the included tracks.

Want: 100%

It goes with everything!

In all seriousness, I've always liked Guile's theme even before the meme. It's upbeat, it's catchy, and I have never gotten sick of it.

Round 2... Okay.

Porky

Chance: 1%

He's probably the most requested Mother character right now, but he doesn't seem like someone that Sakurai would add to the playable roster.

Want: 40%

Predictions:

King Boo - 2.6%

Pichu - 15%

Nominations: Snake Rerate x5
 

[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]

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Porky

Chance: 1%

Want: 3%

Not sure what he could bring, since I haven't played Earthbound or Mother 3.

Guile's theme

Chance: 5%

Want: 1%

Predictions: Pichu 10%

Predictions: King Boo 4%

Nominations: Pious X5.
 

JackerX

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Guile's Theme

Chances : 2%

1 because SF has a foot in Smash Bros
1 because Guile is Epic.

Want : 1%

I personally would want Guile first before we have his theme song. As much as it would fit with anything, yeah....

Porky

Chances : 5

Want : 23%

From a nice boss battle in Smash Bros Brawl, to a trophy in SSB4 ( right up to new SSB4-like textures as if he wouldve been back for more ), nah. For want, meh.

King Boo Prediction 6.78 After playing Luigis Mansion DM for the first time on my 3DS, i'm more interested in King Boo than ever. Not even just speaking for myself, i think a lot can agree this master illusionist and the only way to represent Boos and Weegees Mansion the best can get in.

Pichu Prediction : 1.34 A rerating of a sad melee clone? Well, my want wouldnt change but the chances can get lower.

Nominating

Reyn X5
 
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Troykv

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MIDNA
CHANCE: 3.32%
WANT: 32.67%
And some people call me biased... And nobody says nothing against the guys that put high scores in a AT.

Anyway....

Porky:

Chance: 10%

Possible? Yes, but could be hard to make him with his giant machine.

Want: 50%

I don't really care about him.

Guile's theme

Chance: Abstain

Predict music is tricky help me Micaiah.

Want: 100%

THIS THEME FITS WITH EVERYTHING

Predictions:

Pichu: 17.4%

King Boo: 6%

Nominations:

Idolm@ster Mii Costume x3
Rerate! Shantae x2
 
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Aetheri

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And some people call me biased... And nobody says nothing against the guys that put high scores in a AT.
I guess you missed the entire argument when Midna was rated higher than Wolf then....


Predictions 4 teh lulz:
King Boo
: 15.46%

!Rerate: Pichu: 18.54%

----

Nominations:
Concept: SSB 4 is the last SSB x2
Concept: Pirate Ship Stage x2
Concept: New Mii Fighter Archetype x1
 
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Logo12

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Why the double tagging? @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice

Anyways:

Porky:
Let's rate him 24.28% for extra irony
Chance 1%
Doesn't really have a noticeable demand, and two Mother reps are probably enough.

Want 0%
No interest, plus the point above.

Guiles's theme thing
Chance 3.6%
I have no knowledge on this theme thing. So I just multiplied the chance of DLC music by 5%.

Want Abstain
Again I care about characters only.

Abstain from Prediction.

Nomination:

Rerate Slippy 3x
Leon Powalski 2x
 
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shane3x

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Why the double tagging? @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice

Anyways:

Porky:
Let's rate him 24.28% for extra irony
Chance 1%
Doesn't really have a noticeable demand, and two Mother reps are probably enough.

Want 0%
No interest, plus the point above.

Guiles's theme thing
Chance 3.6%
I have no knowledge on this theme thing. So I just multiplied the chance of DLC music by 5%.

Want Abstain
Again I care about characters only.

Abstain from Prediction.

Nomination:

Rerate K Rool 5x
Haha ;)
 
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