Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Rockaphin]

Young Link:
Chance: 35%
Want: 2%

I don't like Link at all, so I don't really want 3 Links. (I like Mario so I wouldn't mind 3 Mario's, simple as that. Go Paper Mario.)

Jill Valentine:
Chance: 1%
Want: 20%

I have yet to play RE. My only experience with Jill is through Marvel VS Capcom 2, which I thought she was a cool character. I like Jill from that, but I'm not super big on her addition in Smash.

Nominations:
Full Ken Alt for Ryu x3
Saffron City(N64) x2

 

[Aetheri]

Regardless of the opionions about Young Link tomorrow,please keep things civil and respectful, and most importantly:

Have Fun.
for Iwata, and for us as well.

'Fun for Everyone!'

----

Time for a quick sandwich!

Jill Valentine

Chance: 0.1%
So, Ms. Valentine of the Resident Evil franchise, one of Capcom's biggest franchises. Thing about Jill is, when it comes to third party characters she is an icon to an extent, Resident Evil helped mold the Survival Horror genre and has grown into a staple franchise of the genre. Jill is easily one of the most memorable characters from the franchise along with the likes of Chris Redfield, Leon Kennedy, and Albert Wesker.
The problem? Nintendo cares little of the genre in question, Eternal Darkness is pretty much the horror by Nintendo and they haven't really taken it anywhere. And without even a slight twinkle of a hint of it in Smash, it doesn't bode well for a franchise that is not even owned by Nintendo...
This is all without mentioning the fact that she'd be yet another Capcom character when Smash already has two in the game already. Jill's chances are diminishing greatly because of it.

----

Want: 5%
I love Jill, don't get me wrong, easily one of my favourite non-Nintendo female characters out there. But I don't know, I just don't see her fitting well in Smash. Snake was a questionable fit himself, but that was one of his appeals and his greater history with Nintendo sort of made up for it, whereas it wasn't until Resident Evil Remake that Jill made an appearance on Nintendo consoles, and even more recently with Revelations...But there's no substantial history nor influence with Nintendo whatsoever...I also see a problem in what sort of moveset would she have, as in game she almost always uses firearms, which Smash has already shown that it is not in favour of firearms with Snake not using any. Snake could get away with it since he was all about sneaking to begin where as Jill, at least in her earlier games was about Survival, in the later RE games was more about investigating and stopping biowepaons of mass destruction...I'm having a hard time seeing this one...I suppose inspiration could be taken from her Marvel vs. Capcom appearances as well as RE5, where she just throws a bunch of kicks and jumps and flips, but we have ZSS that does that already and Jill probably can't bring anything else to the table other than at most being a hybrid of Snake and ZSS...which actually sounds a bit less appealing to me at least...

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Young Link

Chance: 1% unchanged Masked Link 1%=altogether 11%
I'll be brief without quoting last time, since I'm lazy...Anyways...Least requested veteran behind Pichu (frikking Pichu!) and has almost as big of a hate base as Pichu, without teh terrible gimmick. Also as is he is very redundant since Toon Link is in. And changing his movest into transformations a) contrdicts Sakurai's intentions with players using mains in the past, since he didn't bother changing Ganondorf and b) Masked Link would only work 'well' with transformations which were removed...Sure it is possible but very unlikely...He'd return as is with maybe his Bow changed to slingshot at best...

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Want: 1% unchanged 70% Masked Link =altogether 35.5%
Unchanged I have no interest as it is unecessarily redundant, but when changed into Masked Link with the Deku Scrub, Goron and Zora with the Fierce Deity Final Smash..
At the end of the day, with the exception of Wolf, I would prefer if Sakurai spends his time working on new, unique characters, rather than working on redundant clones that only a minority of the fanbase cares about...

----

Prediction:
Jean Descole: 3.42%

Mallo: 1.35%

----

Nominations:
Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x3
Concept: New Metroid Prime Stage x2

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Young Link Original Chance: 26%

New chance: 30%
Given that Roy's returned with a semi-clone moveset, I have a feeling that if they felt like bringing Young Link back, there's room for potential moveset growth to make a unique Mask based moveset or a Semi-clone. However, he doesn't have the same fanbase as Roy or Mewtwo, so I doubt he'll have a strong voice in the ballot.

Original Want Chance: 60%

New Want: 50% (This is my new Want Score, Colder_than ice)
I can live without Young Link for this incarnation of Smash Bros, since I doubt he'd be given such a warm welcome being the first Zelda DLC newcomer/veteran. If anything, Young Link might be better off returning for the next game and pared with an actual Zelda newcomer. If so, I'd appreciate a potential Falco/Ganondorf treatment or a Mask-based moveset.

So all in all my true stance on Young Link is this - Probably not ideal for Smash 4 over so many newcomers that would arguably be more unique for this game. Maybe next Smash Bros once we've gotten all the newcomers we need for this game, and if Sakurai would want to think about bringing Young Link back. I'm not going to hate out of rage even if he is indeed less liked or wanted than Pichu, I'm neutral on him returning, but would be fine with a semi-clone moveset next game.

Jill Valentine Chance: 2.12%
I think what might hamper her chances as Smash DLC all comes down to the idea that we shouldn't have any more Capcom characters after Ryu.

Want: Abstain%
Although partially familiar with the Resident Evil series through games like Revelations and RE4, I'm not really interested in having a character from Resident Evil in Smash Bros just yet.

Nominations: Satoru Iwata Trophy X3
Balloon Fighter X2

 

[JBRPG]

Jill Valentine
Chance 1%
Want - 1%

Young Link
Chance - 10%
Want - 30%

Predictions
Jean Descole - 4%
Mallo - 7%

Nominations - Smash 5 has a 10 year wait cycle x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I certainly want to rate Iwata content and Balloon Fighter soon, but right after the Unpopular DLC character concept.

___________________________________

Young Link Chance:
17.5%
I guess there were a few things that affected his chances after thinking it over. One that kinda helped his chances like Roy getting moveset changes that Young Link could have. I'm starting to doubt a bit that MM3D could be a point to his chances at this point since so far all of the DLC characters don't really have a game to advertise. Though this is just the start of character DLC, so I'll be patient and see what the next newcomers are. The readdressing of fan-service and his awareness of Roy, Ryu, and Lucas's popularity and demand is also a bit detrimental to his chances. Some of the characters like Toon Zelda or Tetra, I will probably give a lower rating because of this. The several comment certainly concerns me too, but many have agreed it's too vague to say anything yet, the next set of DLC will possibly determine that.

I still think the veteran and clone status points still stand, in the same chance rating I gave to Pichu. I still would like to bring up the moveset point, because I don't think people fully understood my point and how his transformations are workable with temporary transformation attacks:

Given with the recently released game and the free time he's been given with DLC, he could likely and easily take some inspiration from the game to use masks that act as temporary transform moves like Kirby's Stone attack, Pac-Man turning into his pizza shape form, and Sonic turning into his ball form, there are a load of examples of this. His non-special move attacks would likely remain the same, but with new moves to give him a new flavor that doesn't feel exactly like Toon Link's play style.

From, my moveset (which you can find below), The Side-B is basically the boomerang, only two small versions of them are thrown in the air. The Neutral-B remains the same. The only two moves that need adjusting would be his Down-B and Recovery. He's still the light-weighted somewhat powerful Young Link he's always been, only with a few new tools. It's not a drastic change to his playstyle really.

Neutral-B: Fire Arrow: The same as in Melee, with the same hitstun and able to inflict damage even after rhe arrow is show.

Side-B: Zora Boomerang: Link turns into Zora Link to throw two multi-hitting small fin boomerangs at the opponent, great for keeping out of range of the opponent, however he's unable to move and he has to wait for the boomerangs to come back in order to move again.

Down-B: Goron Roll: Similar to Sonic's Down-B, only much stronger and slower. It must be at full charge in order to Goron Link to damage opponents. If uncharged, Goron Link will just pass by the opponent where he's open to attack.
(Altenatively, he can just use the bombchus if Sakurai wishes to keep the special moves similar)

Up-B: Deku Flower Flight: Link turns into Deku Link to fly with his swirling flowers, has a glide effect and is able to shoot Deku Nuts straightforward in the air. The flowers also do multi-hitting damage too if an opponent tries to hit from above. If an opponent manages to hit him, he'll fall helplessly making him really open to attacks.
(Alternatively, he can just keep the same special move too)
___

So yeah. A bit less likely overall since the last time I posted. (Which was less than a month ago I think, that's way too quick) Some of the arguments I made last time will still stand until it's officially confirmed that pre-ballot is over with the potential August DLC pack. That will definitely be the ban hammer to his chances. Here it is if you need it. I removed a few arguments by the way.

Arguments:

Young Link is redundant! We don't need a third link! Toon Link Takes His Playstyle!
This doesn't matter at all. People mention Paper Mario as a plausible candidate and don't mention that he's a third Mario, yet it matters for Young Link. There is some inconsistency within this. Really with Sakurai it doesn't matter if he's Link, the fact that Sakurai has aloud multiple versions of a character in a roster and the fact that he is a veteran that people miss dearly should show that being a third link is irrelevant to his chances.
____

He's a clone! The fanbases HATE clones they will react badly and salt will be poured!
Really? This is a franchise that Sakurai has added similar characters on for each installment he made that he made on his spare time so he can increase play-time for many players. Sure, Dark Pit and Dr. Mario had gotten negative reception at first, but people got over it in days once the streams of Smash 3DS started rolling when all the characters got unlocked. The same will go for Young Link, people will hate it, but get over it eventually and buy him anyway to complete their rosters or not buy him at all if they don't like his inclusion.
____

He's not popular at the ballot! Not qualifiable for DLC!
I'm sure you all heard this before, just because a certain character is unpopular doesn't make them impossible. There are likely characters who have been planned way before the ballot was considered, just to name a few, Lucas, Roy, Ryu, and Mewtwo are among some of these. Not ALL will solely be based on the ballot. Unless pre-ballot is officially over. This point will still stand.
____

Zelda has enough characters, too many reps!
And why would this matter? Let me give you one single character who is also a veteran who is getting in despite fact the series has already gotten 4 characters, and that character is Roy, giving Fire Emblem five characters total despite being a niche franchise. Really this is more of an opinion than anything, which likely doesn't share with Sakurai given how open he is with choices.
____

He has to go through Impa and Ganon first, too much Zelda competition!
Is it really that much competition though?

The only Zelda characters that come to mind are Impa, Ganon, Tetra, and Toon Zelda. That's not fierce competition at all.
Even then, the former two have bigger problems in mind, notably Impa having consistent minor roles with most Zelda games and the fact Ganon likely won't be considered given with Sakurai already having Ganondorf and his lack of popularity in the ballot. It really dumbs down to just Tetra and Toon Zelda, which I don't find much flaws to their inclusion at all since they were planned characters in Brawl.
____

He was not planned for Brawl, that means he's never going to be considered again!
Honestly, this is a pretty bad argument. Given how Sakurai starts considering his choices on many polls and upcoming games now, like I said before, even if Sakurai doesn't want to plan all the veterans for DLC pre-ballot, he likely has considered Young Link again with the highly anticipated remake. Also, the fact that he hates cutting veterans also means he would've likely picked up the idea of Young Link again even if he somehow magically ignores that MM3D just got released. Either way, he likely has been considered even if one cancelled the other, he's still in favor. Just because he hasn't been considered in Brawl doesn't mean can't be considered in other ways.
____

x5 Unpopular DLC Character

 

[Aetheri]

Jill Valentine Chance: 2.12%
Outside of Resident Evil 4, (widely regarded as one of the best GameCube games - in that case it's one for the collection after the HSC.) Jill's series is more associated with the competitors like Sony. I think what might hamper her chances as Smash DLC all comes down to the idea that we shouldn't have any more Capcom characters after Ryu.

Both Resident Evil Remake and Relevations are available on Nintendo platforms btw...Not to mention this argument is pretty much null and void with Street Fighter V and Metal Gear Solid being PS4 Exclusive

 

[Deleted member]

Young Link

Chance: 0%

Sakurai may not like cutting veterans, but Young Link was replaced by Toon Link, who fills his niche almost to a T.

Yes, Roy returned when the roster already included Lucina, but Roy was highly requested to return regardless. Young Link isn't.

Want: 1%

After some thought, as much as I consider both Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask to be solid games that have aged fairly well, I'm satisfied with the two Links we have in Smash 4. The only thing I really desire to see from Young Link is his Final Smash.

Jill Valentine

Chance: 1%

If a third Capcom character were to be chosen based on iconic status alone, it would likely be Jill Valentine from the Resident Evil series. That being said, her ballot support is minuscule.

Want: 70%

I enjoyed her moveset in Marvel vs. Capcom 2 to an extent.

Predictions:

Jean Descole - 2.5%

Mallo - 2.5%

Nomination: Unpopular DLC Character x5

 

[POKEMANSPIKA]

Before I start speculating again, I'd like to take a moment to thank Mr. Satoru Iwata-san for announcing the character ballot and allowing us to dream for our favorite characters to get in Smash. Until we meet again, Smiles and Tears Iwata-san.


Young Link:
Chance: 3%
I don't think Young Link will stand a chance since Sakurai did say we would only have a few characters left. Young Link just doesn't seem all that likely. Plus Toon Link is his replacement.
Want: 0%
I don't care much for Young Link. Toon Link is a much better Link in my opinion. I don't think his moveset will be changed either so I don't want him back in Smash.

Jill Valentine:
lol thought it was Jill Dozer we were doing.
Chance: 1%
Smash Bros. already has 2 Capcom reps so I don't think we are getting another, especially from Resident Evil. Jill's main form of attacking is shooting guns as well.
Want: 0%
I've never played Resident Evil but I don't think Jill would fit in Smash. Her main way to attack in the RE games, correct me if I'm wrong here, is shooting guns. Also there's the fact that she's a third Capcom rep.

Predictions:
Jean Descole: .1%
Mallo: 25%

Nominations:
Iwata Trophy 3x
Samurai Goroh 2x

 

[A Distant Demon]

Jill
chance 0%
another capcom character. Certainly no ryu or mega man in renown.

Want abstain
never played any RE ever


Young link
chance 5%
we're running out of dlc. Im one of the people that believes From now on its fanservice means the ballot will be taken into account and the kid isnt doing too well.
plus pichu would definitely come before him.

Want 5%
i dont like OoT or MM and toon link is my favorite link incarnation. Im good.

Predictions
Jean descole (who?) 1.34%
mallo 15%

Noms
iwata content 2
next smash has new director 3

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Both Resident Evil Remake and Relevations are available on Nintendo platforms btw...Not to mention this argument is pretty much null and void with Street Fighter V and Metal Gear Solid being PS4 Exclusive

Ah, my mistake - I'll just re-edit my thoughts.,.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

All right... it's time to get serious. Before I move onto my main subject...
Jill Valentine
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
For chance, while the Resident Evil franchise is popular, she still has to compete with the likes of Chris Redfield (one of the first protagonists alongside her) and Leon Kennedy (the main character from the beloved Resident Evil 4, which is arguably the most popular Resident Evil). Then we get to the other Capcom characters that she'll have to compete with and have some demand, such as Phoenix Wright. A 3rd Capcom character is something that I find unlikely to begin with.
As for want, I have nothing against Jill, but I don't have a connection with her. I haven't played any Resident Evil games to boot. I can't even play as her in UMvC3 because the DLC was taken down, which doesn't really help. And as for other Capcom characters, I prefer Phoenix Wright and Amaterasu.

Now it's time for the main act.
Young Link
Chance: 0%
I am going to bring up several arguments that absolutely hurt Young Link's chances.

• He isn't a popular veteran at all, the least demanded in fact (yes, even behind PICHU). Characters like Mewtwo, Lucas, and Roy were brought back by their insane fan demand that convinced Sakurai to put them back in Smash... Young Link needs a much bigger push.
• I will bring up another argument that I think was unsung. Yes, Zelda has 5 characters, but that isn't damning in my eyes at all. What is damning is that Zelda has a lot of clones. We have Ganondorf, who is a clone of Captain Falcon, and Toon Link, who is a clone of Link (we'll get to him later). Don't you think Zelda fans would be disappointed if Zelda got another clone instead of someone who has an original moveset?
• Young Link being relevant helps him? Hahaha... OBJECTION! Being relevant doesn't matter for Young Link because his relevancy was too late. Majora's Mask has absolutely no representation other than a couple of items and Skull Kid as an Assist Trophy. When these things were announced, we didn't know that MM3D existed. If Sakurai wanted to represent MM3D, he would have made a DLC stage for it by now, such as Great Bay. Hyrule Castle 64, a Zelda stage that will be DLC, is from Ocarina of Time... not Majora's Mask. Hyrule Warriors doesn't really help either because that game has no representation in Smash.
• Sakurai said that now will have nothing but fan service. By that, I think that he wants to put in highly requested characters, which doesn't help too much in Young Link's case as he is more hated than loved nowadays. Now I will also mention that since Roy is a semi clone of Marth with many of his moves changed, you think that Young Link would have new moves to compensate. To, which I question, why give Young Link the special treatment? Why not differentiate Toon Link a bit more?
• Now, I have reached my biggest argument that will seal Young Link in his grave... Toon Link. Toon Link is essentially a replacement for Young Link. You might think that this isn't the case and that Young Link can co-exist with both Links... that can't be the case. Toon Link and Young Link share many similarities. Toon Link and Young Link are both faster and more agile than the regular Link, can both wall jump, both of their forward smashes have a weak first hit and a stronger second hit, both have up specials that hit multiple times, and Toon Link has Fire Arrows thanks to customs like Young Link did in Melee. As you can see, Young Link is in Smash in spirit as Toon Link. Don't believe me? In Brawl's data it has some data for a playable Mewtwo, Roy, and Dr. Mario. This means that Young Link was a real cut from Brawl. Now, Pichu doesn't have any data either, meaning that Young Link and Pichu were Brawl's legitimate cuts. However, if PraMai theory is true that it was supposed to be a Plusle and Minun combo, they probably would have remains of Pichu's moveset, meaning that Young Link is potentially Brawl's only legitimate cut since he was never planned.

I have rested my case. I cannot deny the possibility that Young Link can happen, it's just very unlikely that it will happen.

Want: -100% (0%)
This is by far one of the worst suggestions I've heard and honestly putting him in would be a waste.
If you like Young Link, more power to you. I don't because I believe there are much bigger, better options for DLC.

Jean Descole Prediction: 4.35%
Rating a character that isn't Layton? Reminds me of a puzzle!
Mallo Prediction: 7.59%
It could happen.

Nominations: Guile's Theme 5x

 

[Drason]

Young Link
Chance: 95%
Still sticking with my original score and if they can un-clone Roy they can definitely do so with Young Link and considering not only he is a veteran but had games that sold well, I would put him up
Want: 100%
Again my secondary in Melee I would want come back
Nominations:
Talim(SoulCalibur)
SilverX4(Sonic)

 

[LIQUID12A]

Be my Valentine...wait, it's not February.

Chance: 1%

A third Capcom rep is pushing it. And even so, why Resident Evil? It's not in the league of Megaman or Street Fighter.

Want: 0%

Pass.

Young Link:

Chance and Want: 1%

I really don't want to get into this, so my original rating, there for you.

Predictions:

Prof. Layton: 7%

Mallo: 6%

Nominate: Delphox x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another veteran rerate - seems to have shot the Want ratings for them up...can we do it again?

Young Link

I'm changing my stance...

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

From before...​

Now this one is interesting. True, he's a veteran, but he's also the only veteran who really doesn't seem missed, since Toon Link pretty much took everything of his and made it better (but still not enough...)

Cue "OMG TOO MANY LINKZ" argument.

Having said that, I don't see him as particularly likely; again the general fanbase is against clones and half-***ed characters. YL, as he was in Melee, was a pure clone, only differing in the taunt. As TL is an effective replacement, YL seems completely redundant...a clone of a character with a clone?

But then Roy seems to be a thing, and you could say the exact same thing for him. I guess it's to be seen what happens with him. The one major difference is that Roy has a very vocal fanbase, whereas YL's is not as rabid.

Now, there is the option of giving YL a MM moveset. Seems more likely, but Sakurai may not want to do that - it would alienate people who liked Melee YL (I think there's a bit of flak from having changed Pit a bit...) and it would still end up repelling people who don't want more of the same character in the game. This option seems like putting in a lot of work for a lose-lose situation.

Finally, and what I would chalk as the most likely, would be giving TL a YL alternate. It may take some forcing of the hitboxes, but since TL doesn't use a WW-inspired moveset, it would work for YL.
​

Want: 0%

No. No. No. No. NO!

I do not want more versions of the same character. What, is nobody else in the Zelda universe important?

Toon Link has fully replaced Young Link. (Of course, if I had my way, the toon stuff would be banished anyway). There is really not much that makes Young Link better than Toon Link besides the realistic design, and that could be fixed by making YL a TL alt. Done.

I do not want to see another Link clone. One is enough.

I do not want to see a new moveset. I'd rather have the time put into giving us a legit Ganondorf. Or getting Sheik her own final smash. Or getting Young Link a less-cloney special set. There's enough clonage going on in the Zelda series, that we don't need another. Besides, if they wanted to give us some MM representation, I'd have liked to see a much more true-to-form Fierce Deity, like the beautiful white version from HW, not this grey thing (of course, it's magic enough that we got it at all...). If I wanted to see a moveset from HW represented, there's another character who is infinitely superior in every way, and is tired of falcon punching his way through Smash.

NO THREE VERSIONS OF ONE CHARACTER!!!!

No. I am tired of all these characters trying to shove my main out of the spotlight. Seriously, no other character shares a crowd chant with someone, not even Dark Pit. With the love that the Zelda series has gotten, it's completely conceivable that a YL would just reuse the same chant.

No, thank you. Do not want.​

Yes, Roy was slightly decloned. Roy is also not a young Marth or a toon Marth. Roy was also planned for Brawl (we're probably now seeing the results thereof) and has been extremely hotly requested. Young Link can't say that - he's even less requested in many polls than Pichu. The fanbase does not like clones, semi- or otherwise, so 'fanservice' probably would start by walking away from another Link and giving us a brand new character. There is entirely too much clonage in the Zelda series, and even a 100% new moveset on a baby Link won't stop people from seeing that. (Remember, some people think that Ike was a Roy clone) Besides, if we're getting a third Link with a brand new moveset, why didn't we first get a decloned Ganondorf?

As I said above...​

No. No. No. No. NO!
I do not want more versions of the same character.
I do not want to see another Link.
I do not want to see a new moveset.
NO THREE VERSIONS OF ONE CHARACTER!!!!
No, thank you. Do not want.​

​

Another 3rd-Party

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

You know what - I'll just make a blanket third-party statement: There are too many requested first-party characters who deserve it more. And don't come with politics. No thanks.

Third parties in Smash should be only very special circumstances.

Besides, in light of recent events, intercompany dynamics may be a bit difficult for a while...
​

@ CaptainAmerica and @ Aetheri respectively win for Hades and Lloyd.

Ooh, missed this last time...Thanks!

Ghirahim x5
And because I want to be funny - Lanky Kong x5

 

[The Merc]

Young Link

Chance: 20%

Look, even with Toon Link, Young Link is not redundant, the could and do play so different, especially ate the nerf Toon Link received on his combo game and mobility. Young Link (as a character) is popular. I have seen it. Yes, I will admit, Snake and Wolf (possible Ice Climbers if they can get pas the 3ds limitation) are more likely to be announced next that Young Link, but Young Link is in no way the least like Veteran to return. He just has so much potential and with Roy's return does some what help Young Link's chances.

Want: 100%+

If Young Link was to return, it would mean the world to me. I serious just want back so bad. I would serious nearly do anything for Young Link to return. He just mean so much to me.

When we rate a character that we have rated before is called a rerate.
We do it to see the if the chances of the caracters have changed/in case we overrated or underrated them.

Example:During the days of the Gematsu leak, the Chorus Kids were seen as one of the most likely characters for the roster,but after Robin's reveal, their chances score dropped dramatically during the rerate.

Ah, I see. Thanks for clarifying that

 

[Sari]

Young Link

Chance: 40%
Want: 70%

Probably the most likely to make it out of the remaining Melee reps. Fairly relevant now thanks to MM3D and like Roy he could be luigified. I liked him in Melee and would love to see him again.

Jill Valentine

Chance: 1%
Want: 2%

I think 2 Capcom reps are enough plus there are other Capcom series that have a better history with Nintendo such as Phoenix Wright.


Professor Layton Jean prediction: 2.46%
Mallo prediction: 2.78%

Nomination: Cranky Kong x5

 

[Deleted member]

I don't have too much to say today:
Both Young Link and Jill sandwich.
Chance:1%
Want:0%

I'm not predicting today

Noms:
Tetris stage X5

Sorry if it looks lazy, but im really tired right now.

 

[Troykv]

Hmmm... Very well.

Young Link:

Chance: 1%

Replaced (doesn't have Brawl Data), also, his existence is... Redundant... Is weird have 3 character with very similar outfits and color and also with very similar moveset.

Want: 0%

Al least Lucina was a last minute clone... Put again Young Link could be dumb.

Jill Valentine... Eh...

Chance and want: Abstain

Eh... I can't rate this.

Predictions: Jean Descole and Mallo

Jean Chance: 1.2%
Mallo chance: 7.6%

Nominations:

Rerate!Micaiah x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Jill Valentine

Chance - 0% - Okay, I think we can say that 3 characters is already way too much for a single third party. Even if it wasn't, she's a horor progatonist, which Nintendo isn't very keen on, and knowing that she mostly uses realisti fire-arms... no chance.

Want - 10% - Ugh... enough with the capcom characters already...


Young Link

Chance - 1% - Not changing anything from last time. We already knew he was doomed, his only grace being one of the old veterains who they might not have to think about implementing. He's is so little demand that many might not bother getting him again. Any time spent trying to make him interesting would probably be better spent on actually making a character people would be more receptive too, and would run the risk of alienating old fans. He's doomed.

Want - 20%- Same as before, give me other Zelda Characters.


Predictions

Professor Layton prediction: 9.62%

Professor Layton: 11.35%
Rating Layton again? Reminds me of a puzzle!

Actually, we're rating Jean Descole, one of Layton's major antagonists. Layton's not up yet.

Anyway...

Jean Descole - 0.12% - ....This should not even be considered.

Mallo - 4.5% - Pushmo's kinda popular, I guess...


Nominations
Secondary Ballot X5

 

[Erureido]

Young Link

Chance: 20%

I am sticking with my original score as my viewpoint on Young Link's chances have remained unchanged. As such I will briefly explain what I previously said about him.

Postives: Decent support for the Smash Ballot (though not as much compared to the likes of King K. Rool or Wolf) and a relevant video game character again thanks to the Majora's Mask remake.

Negatives: The "too many Links" argument hurts his chances the most. Though Roy ended up being the third Marth in the roster, he was far more demanded for a Smash Bros return compared to Young Link and he, Lucina, and Marth look aesthetically different from each other (one being red-haired with different armor, one being female wearing different clothing, and one being a male with blue hair and different clothing), while the three Links would look to similar to each other (even though one is an adult, another has cat-eyes, and another is just the kid version of the adult, they all have the same style of clothing). However, I will acknowledge Young Link's moveset could be reworked to look much less like its counterparts, especially with the use of masks.

Want: 15%

My want rating has also been unchanged from the last time I rated him. To summarize what I previously said, he's simply not one of my most wanted characters for DLC. I actually enjoy Toon Link more than him, and if I were to pick a new Zelda rep to be represented on the roster thanks to DLC, I would give it to Impa.

Jill Valentine

Chance: 5%

Female fighters added to the roster is always a nice touch, and the fact she's a gun-user also helps considering the Smash roster could use some more gun-fighters. She also comes from the Resident Evil series, an iconic video game franchise that has made appearances on Nintendo consoles. Unfortunately, her chances are severely hurt by her third party status. This hurts her even more considering she's from Capcom, and with two Capcom reps already on the roster, it's very unlikely a third Capcom rep will be added. Combine that with the fact she has to compete with other popular Capcom characters (in the slim chance a third Capcom rep will be considered) and almost no ballot support and you'll see her chances aren't too strong for a Smash Bros inclusion.

Want: 10%

I will admit that I would love to see more gun-users on the Smash roster, but if we were to get another Capcom rep, she isn't one of my top picks.

Predictions:

Mallo (Pushmo): 4.51%
Jean Descole (Professor Layton): 2.10%

I already know tomorrow isn't going to be a pretty day for Descole. His chances are severely hurt by the fact he has very little ballot support and has major competition with Jibanyan for a second Level 5 rep, not to mention many will argue Level 5 doesn't need two reps compared to companies like Namco or Sega. Of course, what really hurts his chances the most is that Professor Layton has the higher priority of getting into the roster because he is the star of the Layton series compared to Descole, and Layton has far more Smash Ballot support as well.

I've also noticed not too many people here seem to know who Jean Descole is aside from being a character from the Layton series. Luckily, I'm going to help all of you stay informed so that we will see some more rational input tomorrow and no confusion with Professor Layton:

I have created a support thread for Jean Descole that explains everything you need to know about him, from an overview about him, to his backstory, to his chances for a Smash Bros inclusion on the roster. I've even created a potential moveset for him.

^I highly suggest reading through it when you have some spare time because it will help a lot when discussing Jean Descole tomorrow.

Nominations:
With Jean Descole's day finally on the horizon, it is time to begin pushing for Gallade's RTC day once again!

Gallade (Pokemon): x5

 

[FancySmash]

Young Link
Chance
5% - I think 5% could still be a bit high, but eh, it's fine. OK, The remaining Smash Ballot characters are specifically meant to please fans. The only veterans left that have fan demand are Wolf, the Ice Climbers, and Snake. Young Link is probably the bottom of the barrel for veterans, yes even below PICHU! Some say that with semi-clone Roy, Young Link has a chance at this as well. To reasons he doesn't.
1. Young Link isn't as requested
2. Roy had data from Brawl, which is were said semi-clone data now came from
Finally, the idea of giving him an entirely new move set with Masks won't happen. Sakurai hates alienating players from previously established characters, which is what mask move sets could potentially do.

Want
5% - I've said before that I want all veterans to return. However, Young Link is the one I want in the game the least. I actually prefer Pichu to Young Link, because Pichu, while really bad in execution, had an interesting reward vs. risk gimmick. I actually believe that Young Link should be an alt for Toon Link and Pichu should be an alt for Pikachu. Otherwise, no thank you. I'm content without seeing him ever again.

Also, would you believe me if I said that whenever I tried to type Young Link I found myself typing Toon Link often?

Jill Valentine
Chance
1% - Another third party that isn't legendary. Look, there aren't many third Party characters that I'd expect at this point. In fact, I think they're done with third Party characters for now.

Want
1% - Eh, not zero because... why not. I still think that we're good with 3rd parties for now. I'll accept Eggman for a Sonic Villain, Banjo and Kazooie because of their history with Nintendo, and Snake due to veteranness (not a word by the way).

Predictions
Jean Descole - 3.5%
Mallow - 4.5%

Nominations
Eggman X5

 

[-crump-]

Jill Valentine
Chance: 1%
3rd party and yet another Capcom rep. She doesn't seem like a character Sakurai would be willing to add.

Want: Abstain
I have no ties to this character, so it wouldn't really be fair.

Young Link
Chance: 30%
Easy to make, and fairly popular.

Want: 85%
If only because he's adorable in Hyrule Warriors.

Jean Chance: 0.9%
Mallo chance: 10%

Ultimate Ghost x5

 

[~Krystal~]

Jill Valentine

Chance: 0%
Want: 90%

Jill Valentine's moveset can be adapted without compromising her character as MvC 2 showed and she's a definite mainstay in the Resident Evil universe. Only thing is, Ryu's in and there's the perception fans want something a little less Capcom for their next third party. Competition within Resident Evil remains fierce anyway. Between Chris Redfield and Albert Wesker, it's hard to see the vote swinging decisively in Jill's favor, and if there's anything a third party needs right now, it's a clear majority decision from their respective fanbase.

Young Link

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Toon Link has effectively unseated him as the younger Link for two games. Young Link isn't my first choice, but for what it's worth, I would rather have a Majora's Mask themed Young Link than our current uninspired Toon Link. The masks would make Young Link highly interesting for me. So, if I were seeking a third Link, I would vote for him on that basis. As a copy paste veteran clone? No way.

A third Link after five characters gives the impression that Zelda is bereft of any decent personalities outside its main 3 anyway. There may be two Marios, but there are 6 other characters squarely in his series that say "we have a cast that isn't top heavy." Zelda can do better.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Jill

Young Link
Chance: 1%
I gave him a low score before and I feel less confidant about him now then I did before with what we've learned. Popularity-wise, he's the least popular of all the veterans, ranking lower then even Pichu in Japan where veterans are more wanted and barely placing as is. Compared to the newcomers it's even worse as in PushDustIn's Mega Poll, he didn't even place at all. Considering that both Roy and Lucas were stated to have owed their return to popularity, that is not a good thing to start off with and there are still veterans that could come in over him. Looking to the Ballot itself, that makes things even worse for him as he is up against other newcomers as well as those veterans who are much more popular then he is, so he's not in good standing here.

As for what he can bring, it's not much. The thing with clones is that once they come in with their predecessor's moveset used for them, they don't really deviate from that original thought. Roy didn't completely change from Marth, Falco still has elements of Fox in there, hell, even Ganondorf didn't change from his base Capt. Falcon moveset, so Young Link would still take a good amount of his moves from Link and Toon Link. It's also not likely that masks would be integrated into his moveset considering Ganondorf still lacks things like Dead Man's Volley and Toon Link lacks many different items that could've been used from Wind Waker and other "Celda" games. So the character doesn't look to have much to stand out from the other two Links, which brings me to the final problem...

Yes, as much as we hate to admit it, Toon Link fundamentally did take over his role. Both characters were designed with the idea of a Younger, faster Link, and that idealogy was integrated and upgraded with Toon Link. The character was changed into what we see in Toon Link and it's probably for that reason why we didn't find him in Brawl's files whereas we did with every other Melee veteran sans Pichu. Young Link doesn't have much going for him, whether its popularity, role, status or otherwise, he's always lagging behind. There are too many hurdles he has to jump over to become playable, and considering that many of the other characters don't have as many along with having their own merits, he's probably not winning this race.

Want: 5%
I'm sorry, but I just can't get behind him. From what we've seen in the other clones, I don't think he'd bring much to the table to be worthwhile to me. He's one character that personally I don't mind if he doesn't return.

 

[Aetheri]

Predictions
DLC adventure mode - 9%
New Metroid Prime stage - 6%

As much as I'd like them to be, Adventure Mode and New Metroid Prime Stage concepts are not being rated yet...Mallo and Jean Desomthingorother are what we are predicting for tomorrow's rating...You are free to nominate them of course!
....no?...


ok, well I tried at least...

 

[JBRPG]

As much as I'd like them to be, Adventure Mode and New Metroid Prime Stage concepts are not being rated yet...Mallo and Jean Desomthingorother are what we are predicting for tomorrow's rating...You are free to nominate them of course!
....no?...


ok, well I tried at least...

Thanks... I have corrected it, and I thought I read it off of somebody else's post before going to the next set of predictions

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Icedragonadam won for Adeleine the other day, and @JackerX won for the veterans.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Jill Valentine:

Chance:0.1%

Another Capcom character and not very high on Ballot.

Want:ABSTAINED

Young Link:

Chance: 4%

It's very likely pre ballot is done and he's among the lowest wanted veterans.

Want:75%

I would like any of the veterans to return.

Predictions:

Jean: 1.56%

Mallo: 6.98%

Nominations:

Wolf Rerate x5

Mother 3 Stage x5

 

[Zerp]

Young Link:

Chances: 13% Not very probable, he doesn't have many fans, and most people don't want to see him, kind of like Pichu. I think those two ought to band up together or something, they are in the same situation and sharing a ballot vote as Pichu/Young Link actually makes some sense from a propaganda view. I'm kinda confused as to why we are re rating him, did something big happen? Because if it did, I completely missed it.

Want: 20% Really the only vet I'd be okay with being gone from every game ever, for sixth Zelda rep I'd rather we get someone worthy of the slot, and not just Toon Link again. Really the only bits of want stem from it increasing Pichu's chances if he got in, and from sympathy towards Young Link's fanbase, getting your main cut sucks.

Jill Valentine:
Chances: 1% Super unlikely, a third Capcom rep not named Phoenix Wright?

Want: Abstain

Predictions: Jean 2% (who?)
Mallo 10%

Nominations:
Delphox x 3 Jirachi x 2

 

[Delzethin]

The cycle repeats itself, and here he is again. Yet I wonder, does he know who he truly is inside? Or is he just a hollow shell of what he once was?

►◄►▼►▲◄

-♪-


But first, let's talk about someone else.

Jill Valentine

Chance: 1.5%
Has Resident Evil done much of note lately? Yes, I know about RE6. I said "of note".

Okay, shot-firing aside, Resident Evil has its audience (or at least it did before it went from survival horror to generic 3PS with a horror aesthetic), but there're a lot of issues in Jill's way. Resident Evil hasn't had much of a Nintendo presence since the days of RE4, and it's really languished in recent years. If it ever was iconic on the level of Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, et al, it's definitely fallen from grace. Furthermore, there've been a handful of protagonists over the course of the series, and in that case, why pick Jill over the more well known Chris Redfield or Leon Kennedy? Then there's the fact that Capcom already has two characters in Smash, and would be hard pressed for a third with how selective Sakurai is with third party characters.

To say no less of how he refuses to put realistic firearms in Smash...and considering they're the primary weapons in those games...well...it doesn't look good.

Jill's chances are so small, you could probably fit what remains in a sandwich.

Want: Abstain
Another series I haven't had enough money to try out. Maybe one of these days, RE4 could end up on Virtual Console? Somehow?


Rerate: Young Link

Chance: 12.5% -> 7.5%

Two outcomes play into Young Link's chances. They each offer their own situation...but unfortunately, neither look good.

Option one was to keep him as he was in Melee, full clone and all. That option now seems less likely than ever. While Roy was brought back, it was due to massive demand, and he was still Luigified to keep him from feeling redundant (how I'll get to shortly). They expressly avoided the easy clone route, knowing full well the ire a full clone would draw.

Imagine how much worse it'd be for a character with a much smaller following and who much of the fanbase feels is redundant.

Combine that with Sakurai's word that DLC from here on out will focus on "fanservice", and you have even less chance of the clone route happening.

But Roy was partially decloned, so they can just do that to Young Link...right?

Well...thing is, Roy was originally planned for Brawl, then cut for time. Consider how every character who was a clone in Melee that returned to Brawl became a semi-clone. There was an express intent to avoid full clones in Brawl...and so it seems likely that the semi-clone!Roy we have now comes from his Brawl incarnation that never happened. Young Link never showed up in Brawl's files--he was never planned, and odds are the developers saw Toon Link as his successor just as most of the fanbase does.

Based on what we know, it seems that Roy wasn't decloned after he was given the nod, they already had a semi-clone moveset to use. It might've even been the reason they were so willing to add him to begin with! And as such, the argument that Young Link could be added due to seniority, then revamped to avoid being a clone, holds water about as well as a Deku Scrub does.

Two paths, but the same outcome. Young Link's time has passed.

Want: 15% -> 10%
With three more characters finished and Sakurai not knowing for sure how much longer the team will stay together, he idea of bringing Young Link back just for the sake of having him back sounds worse than ever.


Jean Descole Prediction: 0.67%
The rival of a third party character whose Smash chances are already on the low side. Owain, you might not be stuck in the cellar for much longer.

Mallo Prediction: 7.75%
From a smaller series, but being Nintendo-owned and kind of trendy will give him a higher score than a lot of characters we're rated recently.


Nominations: Delphox x5
By the way, if anyone's interested, the thread has a full moveset now. There's even some ideas for alternate ones on the way!

 

[Kenith]

Jill Valentine
Chance: 1%.

FINALLY.
The chances of anyone from Resident Evil getting into Smash are abysmal. They're either a big, hulking, grotesque monster, or they fight by using firearms and knives, the latter being a huge no-no to Sakurai. Additionally, Jill is not requested at all! There are very few people clamouring for a Resident Evil character in Smash.
If we get a third character from Capcom, it's much more likely to be Phoenix Wright.
Want: 100%.

However, Resident Evil is my favorite game series not currently represented in Smash - it would make me intensely happy to see Jill in Smash even if she's not one of my favorite characters. I especially love this game...

I consider it to be the best game horror game ever made, and if this version of Jill got in using weapons exclusively from this game, I'd be ecstatic.

---
Young Link
Chance: 1%.
Want: 0%.

No matter how you look at it, we have two very similar Links already and one is a complete replacement for Young Link. And if they wanted to represent Majora's Mask with him using masks, why didn't they just have Skull Kid from the start?
As for want, I think we all know the third Link I want...

---
Nominations:
Excitebike x5

Furthermore, there've been a handful of protagonists over the course of the series, and in that case, why pick Jill over the more well known Chris Redfield or Leon Kennedy?

While Leon is a valid substitute for Jill (I actually originally wanted to nominate Jill/Leon instead of just Jill) I can confirm that Jill is much more iconic than her boulder-punching partner.
Jill Valentine has been the main character in two games (Revelations and Resident Evil 3), has made multiple appearances in the movies (however terrible they are), and has appeared in Marvel vs. Capcom 2 and Marvel vs. Capcom 3.
She is even on the boxart for the GameCube Resident Evil (which I posted) further cementing that Jill stands better as her own character than Chris.

 

[Amiiboshiibo]

Jill:

Chance: 0% - No one really wants her except the guy above me, sooooo....

Want: 0% - She sounds like a Snake clone to me. Also, Resident Evil in Smash? No.

Young Link:

Chance: 37% - He's somewhat popular, and a veteran. However, he's a clone, he's mostly irrelevant, and generally not that wanted.

Want: 0% - Two words: Toon Link.

Nominations:
Captain Syrup x5 again

 

[Deleted member]

Jill

Chances : 1%

Want : 10%

I know of Resident Evil, but if we are to see a fighter from a particularly gory M franchise, i'd want someone else. Not just Snake, but one guy.

Young Link

Chances : 27%

Want : 81% ( > . The ideas i've heard about decloning do sound good. )

Predictions

??? ( Not doing either, because i'm quite clueless on both characters. T.T )

Noms ( ZOMG i win again! )

Gallade X5
Galacta Knight X5

Sheesh, almost ran outta ideas till i realized i want that Knight.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

WeirdJillFever
Chance and Want: 2%
Sakurai is selective.
While I feel Jill could be cool, I'd rather not get three Capcom characters added in one game.

*Bends fingers*

*Does Half Moon pose*

Here we go:

Young Link:
Chance: 15%
Let's tackle some things first:

-Toon Link is a replacement
Yes. If fullheartedly agree that Toon Link was made to replace Young Link.

When Brawl was made, Toon Link was a requested choice, backed up by the fact Wind Waker was newer and shinier than Greninja's black alt in Smash (Get it because it aren't his shiny colors)

Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask were old and relics of the past, deemed not to have passed the test of time.
With Toon Link being such an obvious choice over Young Link, the latter was scrapped in favor of the former.

But times have changed.
Young Link had newfound relevance and importance to the series through Majora's Mask 3D AND Ocarina of Time 3D.
Young Link gains fans again and now with Toon Link being somewhat less shiny, they have a chance to stand equal, with nobody replacing or making eachother redundant anymore.

-Sakurai said fanservice. Young Link has zero ballot support
You know, it's really easy to think fanservice = ballot and ballot alone.
It would've stopped for Young Link there.

But luckily, Sakurai has written an article where he states that with each cut, fans are going to be dissapointed.
Bringing that cut back would be fanservice just as much as bringing someone in that scored fairly well on the ballot.

-Three Links is too much
Now I'm not gonna say that we have three Marth's already too, because that's obviously a whole nother thing.
But now is a good time to talk about YL's moveset potential and aesthtetics.

In each way, Young Link would be a middle ground between Toon Link and Adult Link.

He combines Adult Link's proportions with Toon Link's bright colors.
He combines Adult Link's air mobility with Toon Link's ground mobility
He combines Adult Link's kicks with Toon Link's moves

He also has Fire Arrows (a middle ground between Toon Link's Fire Arrow and Link's Arrow) and a multihitting Bomb (Unique)

And then there comes Roy who was decloned a bit.
Put in a few new moves to distinguish them even more.

Want: 70%
Would never vote for him, am not opposed.

Jean Descole: 1.14%
Mallo: 2.14%

Nabbit x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Jill Valentine and Young Link
Chance and Want (both): QUADRUPLE ZEROES
Jill barely has any ballot support compared to other third-parties and we already have two Capcom characters.
Young Link is a clone, he is the least popular veteran, he barely has any ballot support and Toon Link serves the same purpose.

Mallo prediction: 4%

Jean Descole prediction: 1%

Nominations: Agumon 5x

EDIT: Added predictions.

 

[Amiiboshiibo]

Toon Link serves the same purpose and he has barely any ballot support.

Because Toon Link is already character...

 

[ShinyRegice]

Young Link chances: 1.8%
He has going for him the fact he's the protagonist of two legendary Nintendo games, and he was in Melee... but Toon Link is pretty much a redesigned, renamed Young Link and shares many differences from adult Link with him, such as the ability to wall jump, a multi-hitting up special, better overall mobility and poorer range in his attacks. Not to mention part of Toon Link's appeal if the unique aesthetic gimmick he has by clashing with the artstyle of the other characters from his series, something Young Link obviously lacks. He also already fills the niche of a child Link, something important to have in Smash from Sakurai's perspective. And the overall demand for Young Link is very low when compared to other cut characters, even Pichu, and to many potential newcomers as well.

Also let me cringe whenever mentions the "MUH RELEVANCE RECENCY!!!!1!1!!" argument with MM3D. No seriously, you think that a cut character from a previous Smash game coming from one of the most timeless and legendary games of all times gets a boost in "relevance" because of a remake? If anything this "relevance" thing will arbitrarily have an influence on stages and trophies (hence why we have OoT contents mostly on the 3DS version - most notably Gerudo Valley and many trophies not in the Wii U version, influenced by the "muh relevant" OoT 3D) but not on the playable roster.

Young Link want: 0%
No thanks, it'd be incredibly redundant, and I'd much, much rather have exciting newcomers over lame returning characters for the sake of seniority.

-----

Jill chances: 0.18%
The Resident Evil series is admittedly pretty well-known, arguably the most iconic series in the horror genre, I would even say its fame does not pale too much compared to the third-party series currently having a playable representative in Smash 4. At the same time with minuscule support, the fact we already got a surprise (and most likely more iconic) third-party Capcom DLC newcomer hurt her chances a lot, not to mention Sakurai seems opposed to realistic guns in Smash. If anything I expect her as a Mii costume. Besides, if an horror game series comes to get representation in Smash, I'd expect it to be Fatal Frame, and even then that's a stretch. (Though it got a few trophies, but I doubt we will get more than that anytime soon.)

Jill want: abstain
With my lack of connection to the series and my ignorance on how a Resident Evil character would fit in Smash, I don't feel like giving a most likely arbitrary want score. At least I admit Resident's Evil fame, and I suppose a character from this series would be an healthier addition to Smash than many other third-party suggestions.

-----

Jean Descole prediction: 0.53%
A not particularly well-known archenemy of a third-party character who has yet to be in Smash, when we have no precedence of two characters from the same third-party series to be playable? (Unless he gets over Layton himself, but that's a stretch.) Pretty much guaranteed bottom five, and possibly our lowest perceived likeliness.

Mallo prediction: 11.79%
For what I know it's a popular-ish eShop game made by Nintendo. Won't do horribly I suppose.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC adventure mode x2
Concept: unpopular DLC character x2
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x1

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Because Toon Link is already character...

EDIT: Oh, now I know what you mean. I worded that badly, I meant that YL barely has any ballot support.

 

[Kenith]

Jill Valentine and Young Link
Chance and Want (both): QUADRUPLE ZEROES
Jill is from M rated game and we already have two Capcom characters.

What about Snake?

 

[ShinyRegice]

I know. What's the problem?

I guess @ A Amiiboshiibo supposed you were talking about Toon Link when you said "he has barely any ballot support". There would not be any confusion if you put "Toon Link serves the same purpose" after it. Most likely a wording issue.