Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Lady Kuki

Smash Journeyman
Jan 28, 2015

Chance: 0%

Hah, you people are being waaay to generous with this guy. Not only is he from a series that many people claim "overrepresented", but he's also a pretty minor character. Sure, he's popular and he makes an appearance in the latest FE installment, but that's all he has going for him. Unless if by some freak chance he somehow becomes the main character of FE15, then he pretty much has no chance.

Want: 55%

I do like him, but there are other FE characters I would prefer over him. IDK, he's just too insignificant of a FE character for me to want him in.

SMT Character Concept

Chance: Abstain

I don't know much about the history of SMT and the influence it made in the gaming industry, so I'm giving this one a pass.

Want: 60%

I think it would be cool, but I would rather a Persona character (if that counts anyway)

Nominations: Fiora (Xenoblade) x5
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Sarki Soliloquy

Smash Champion
Jun 8, 2013
Andover, MA, USA
In my time doing Rate Their Chances, I have been rating on my number scale on a basis of rough subjectivity with no concrete range values. Just about every rating before the last was done under a philosophy of "roster maintenance", meaning that I was more concerned with the character quantity and "amalgamation" of a character.

If the Pre-E3 Content Update Direct changed anything within me, it's my stance on this. I was very adamant on purchasing DLC characters that barely made a 90% on my criteria for having a lot of unsatisfactory connotations attached to them. Despite my experience and unwaveringness, I splurged and bought Lucas, Roy, and most importantly, Ryu all at once. If I can at least learn to coexist with characters that may not be so perfect with me, than I'll judge from a basis of what a character brings to the game rather than what they represent to me. Screw repping theory. Screw redundancy. Screw roster saturation (it's already on its way out).

Thus, these two reasons are why I feel my number ratings no longer reflect my analysis of certain characters as accurately. If I wanted to change that, I would. Except it requires tinkering with soluble algebraic calculations or rerates. So, I think I'll just stick with the system I've been using for the sake of consistency. Besides, this is my last day, so what better epitome?

Character Chance Ratings

-: Ryu - CONFIRMED! (97.7%)
-: Roy - CONFIRMED! (97.7%)

1: Wolf - 97.5%
2: Professor Layton - 90%
3: Chibi Robo - 65%

4: Rayman - 60%
5: Snake - 55%
6: Inkling - 50%
7: Sceptile - 45%
7: Krystal - 45%
8: Paper Mario: 44.5%

9: Dixie Kong - 43%
10: Wonder Red - 40%
11: Impa - 40.5%
12: Bayonetta - 35%
12: Simon Belmont - 35%
13: Cross - 35.7%

14: Elma - 35.3%
15: Ice Climbers - 30%
15: Captain Toad - 30%
16: Toon Zelda - 29.3%

17: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
18: Magolor - 25%
19: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
20: Spyro - 25.3%
21: Anna - 23%
22: Ivysaur - 23.7%
23: Jibanyan - 22%
24: Squirtle - 22.5%
25: Quote - 21.5%
26: Phoenix Wright - 20%
26: Shovel Knight - 20%
27: Shantae - 20.5%
28: Tetra - 20.3%

29: Gengar - 15%
30: 9-Volt - 10%
30: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
31: Lip - 10.5%
32: Geno - 7%
33: Young Link - 6.3%
34: Owain - 5%
34: KOS-MOS - 5%
34: Ray - 5%
34: Pichu - 5%
35: Daisy - 5.7%
36: Ridley - 5.5%
37: Monita - 3%

Character Want Ratings

-: Ryu - CONFIRMED! (60%)
-: Roy - CONFIRMED! (10.5%)
1: Professor Layton - 100%
1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Bayonetta - 95.3%
3: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
3: Sceptile - 90.5%
4: Shantae - 87%
5: Wonder Red - 86.5%

6: Gengar - 86.3%
7: Snake - 85%
7: Impa - 85%
8: Magolor - 85.5%

9: Anna - 80%
9: Ice Climbers - 80%
10: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
11: Jibanyan - 69.7%
12: Chibi Robo - 60%
12: Paper Mario: 60%
13: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
14: Phoenix Wright - 55%
15: Ridley - 50%
16: Inkling - 30%
17: Henry Fleming - 30.5%

18: Rayman - 25%
19: Cross - 25.7%

20: Elma - 23%
20: Quote - 23%
21: Krystal - 20%
21: Dixie Kong - 20%
21: Toon Zelda - 20%
22: Tetra - 20.5%

23: Squirtle - 10.7%
23: Ivysaur - 10.7%
24: Geno - 10.5%
25: Owain - 8%

26: Spyro - 7%
27: Young Link - 5%
28: Lip - 5.7%

29: Captain Toad - 5.5%
30: Ray - 4.5%
31: KOS-MOS - 3%

32: 9-Volt - 3.5%
33: Monita - 1%
33: Pichu - 1%
33: Daisy - 1%

Concept Chance Ratings

1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 90.5%
2: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
3: 7+ DLC Characters - 80.7%
4: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%
5: R.O.B. Eyes Glitch Fix - 50%
6: DLC Music Packs - 50.5%
7: New Palutena's Guidance Conversations - 45%
7: Rhythm Heaven Character - 45%
8: Shin Megami Tensei Character - 25%
9: Concept: Alpha Form Stages - 10%

Concept Want Ratings

1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 100%
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: New Palutena's Guidance Conversations - 90%
3: Shin Megami Tensei Character - 89%
4: R.O.B. Eyes Glitch Fix - 75%
5: DLC Music Packs - 65%
6: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%
7: 7+ DLC Characters - 45%
8: Rhythm Heaven Character - 40.3%
9: Concept: Alpha Form Stages - 10.5%

E3 Ratings

1: Ryu - 100%
2: Roy - 90%
3: Smash Direct Satisfaction - 79.5%
4: Digital Event Satisfaction - 55%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Bandana Dee

Mach Rider
Dark Samus
Bub, Bob

Abtsains (Indifference)

B.B. Bandit Trio
Other E3 Conferences



Chance - 5%: Oh look, it's Proposed Fire Emblem Character #4. I feel like every time a character from this series is brought on for a rating, everyone goes right to the fetid horse carcass and starts flogging it when the carrion is reduced to sinews at this stage. OVERALL DEMAND FOR FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS IS LOW, ESPECIALLY AFTER ROY!

Whilst it's certainly not outside the realm of chance to get 2 FE characters, I imagine Sakurai feels he rolled out that cast already and would probably feel like his merits are being received ungrateful if he had to get yet another FE character to sate the fans. And if we were to get another FE character, there's already plenty of choices that outshine Owain. With Fire Emblem Fates officially released in Japan, Corrin and/or Azura would be ripe enough to pull despite being only months old. Not to mention the possibility of a legacy character such as Lyn, Anna, or Tiki being viable.

Owain's lopped in the same corral as Tharja: just another darkhorse from Awakening who happens to be one of the most standout characters out of a quirky cast.

Want - 8%: Everyone, please lower your guards and shelf your prepositions for a moment! Just stop and think about this; how would you not be pleased with Owain's referential attack name cries!?


Gimme a Fire Emblem Awakening: Coliseum(+) godsdamnit! Done yet? Okay, let's go back to normal.

Owain would certainly be a very theatrical fighter with quotes ripe to go memetic and would have nuance in his rogue-like blade stances and swipes and maybe bows and Assassin skills such as Lethality. He would also... wait, what else? Like Anna or Micaiah, Owain doesn't offer much appeal beyond that. His inclusion would most assuredly be a one-time deal. When the years go by when Awakening ages, Owain will just remain as an Einjerhar or that game. Nothing more.

Or, you know, unless his cult following propagates a noisy fanbase loud enough to get their requests heard by Smash 5 or the inevitable Smash 5 DLC period and many a fanboy/fangirl will moisten their bedclothes *cough*Roy*cough*! Oh, and I guess there's always the mystique bishounen swordsmen bring no matter what. Can't discredit that!

And last, but certainly not least, the rating I've been waiting for:

Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character

Chance - 25%: Well, this day petered out with so little power than I was expecting. :glare:

The Megami Tensei franchise has had fairly-high success since its inception way back on MSX computer systems. For a niche series, it's certainly no slouch in performance: it ranks #99 for highest grossing video game franchises (data timestamp unknown), and is the 6th JRPG on the list behind Pokémon, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, & Kingdom Hearts. Yes, #99 isn't too impressive compared to those other games. Just 1 above the absolute dregs of the top 100. Duddy alcollade of Least Best Seller in subgenre. But it's certainly something to take into account, when Fire Emblem and Xenoblade Chronicles (or even just Xeno) aren't present or lower. Please keep in mind this data sample's timestamp has not been verified, and has likely changed significantly since its publication.

As for historicity on Nintendo systems, Megami Tensei has 13 games featured on Nintendo systems beginning with Shin Megami Tensei II on Super Famicom.. It's worth noting that the most recent mainline games have had Nintendo exclusivity (Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey for the DS and Shin Megami Tensei IV on the 3DS), along with Nintendo heavily crosspromoting the game and crossing it over with Fire Emblem. Yeah, I'm sure this is enough to get them by. I mean, Snake worked around his odds with an even worse case.

But enough about sales figures. Let's get into what really matters: the potential for people to be excited about their inclusion. It's THIS that's the end-all-be-all of any 3rd party character's chances, not legendary pedigree (though it certainly helps significantly.)

Right off the bat, we've identified Megami Tensei as a niche property. The staggering volume of abstains drives this home more than I expected. Right away, the games' fanbase and fringe supporters in the Smash community will be on board. Hardcore gamers and some casuals who've played at least one game or have knowledge of the series will also factor in, especially for the Japanese audience. But, what about the general public and gamers not familiar with the franchise? Well, I guess it will really take the character being presented really cool to them that will decide impressions. And remember, a Smash appearance will skyrocket the popularity of your character and series!

However, this won't be enough to surmount the myriads of more iconic 3rd parties. Just look at them: Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Ryu. I can mention any of these characters to someone on the street and they would either know them or where they came from. Not to mention, each of those characters revolutionized gaming like how Shin Megami Tensei codified the Mon concept before Pokémon was even inspired. Oh, and let's not forget how not one Shin Megami Tensei character has made a blip on the Ballot. Yet alone have one that the series fanbase can rally under. In fact, Persona is fairing the best. The best I see is a few Yu Nakamuras or Teddies. Even a Jack Frost here and there.

TL;DR: SMT character can happen, needs attention desperately first.

Want - 89%: Confession time: I have never played a Megami Tensei game in my life. Yes, I've been meaning to. But I have too many games in my backlog, yet alone RPGs. Will definitely pick up Shin Megami Tensei IV on the 3DS eShop next sale. I expect a warmly-masochistic welcome to a great series.

Call me biased, but I'm very much open to a SMT character in Smash even with no history with the series. The series has a rich history and tons of characters, stages, Trophies, etc., to choose from! All the characters are so damn cool! Jack Frost's ice magic and cartoony antics in the absence of the Ice Climbers. Teddie's bubbly personality, claws, and industrially-explosive Personas. The myriads of Persona Users and Demon Summoners who could bring out tons of summons from throughout the series for specials or even as puppet characters. Just take a look at my top contenders:

Jack Frost

Hee-ho, it's everyone's favorite fairy demon! Long-recurring demon summon and ATLUS's long-time mascot. Even had his own game, Jack Bros. on the Virtual Boy (yes, it had to be that console). I even had a support thread for him. Feel free to build off of it for a new one.

The frontrunner pick for the series. Don't have a particular SMT character you want? You're likely going to default to him. Would fit well within Smash Bros.' cartoony environment, which only Teddie is the only other character who can attest to that. Uses ice magic and other spells in a variety of ways, which is welcome now that the Ice Climbers got cut. Has tons of alt costumes and recolors through alternate versions of him. The thread linked above has my moveset for him, which I highly recommend reading for a cohesive idea of how he could work.

Far from being an iconic character and is even loosing his mantle gradually to Teddie, as some have observed. Huge obscurity factor. A big factor against him is that he could be covered as a summoned demon for any one of the Summoners or other protagonists.


The samurai protagonist of Shin Megami Tensei IV. A summoner thrown into the struggle for the apocalypse who uses a sword and a wristbound device to call demons, which make great series references and special fodder to boot. Basically the Robin or Lucina of his series at this time. Very recognizable and likeable character. Would be the most convenient for newcomers to be introduced to the series through the latest entry.

A far cry from iconic even to Jack Frost and might be less welcome as a result. Rather disposable and lacks star power due to the rotating nature of SMT protagonists. Could be covered under the Summoner.

Summoner (General Shin Megami Tensei protagonist)

*This image does not include every single Megami Tensei protagonist ever and mixes other subseries within it (even Catherine, WTF?). This is just meant to generally conceptualize what the Summoner(s) might look like.

A loose character slot akin to Villager that pulls a Koopalings with all 8-12 alt costumes being their own characters. Requires someone like Flynn to run the default costume and icon or would have to be whittled down to the more generic "Protagonist" designs for both genders across the entire series, character names optional.

Represents the core gameplay of the series. Semi-realistic anime humans who's specialty is summoning various demons throughout the series for special attacks or to serve as puppets a la Rosalina & Luma, Carl & Ada Clover, etc. Demon summoning alone is a huge referential opportunity that would strike awe into fans and strangers alike. Would use a sword and other magic as a primary means of attack.

Tricky to execute, especially with them all being uniconic. May lead to identity problems.


The protagonist of Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne. A random human high school student caught into the circumstance of being transformed into a half demon. His design is the most distinct out of all the Summoners in that none of them even come close to it. A plus is that he can still maintain demon summoning, but with access to other demon abilities or close-combat attacks.

Not even a Nintendo star; his game was on the PS2. Rather dicey choice considering he's just one in the many of unimportant SMT protagonists. Could be covered as a Summoner. Unknown to many people outside the fanbase.


The protagonist of the Devil Survivior subseries, a tactical strategy RPG series in vein of Fire Emblem. Has just about all the abilities attributed to a Summoner. Can bring in mechanical elements exclusive to his subseries as an edge in his playstyle. Notably frontruns a heavily Nintendo-centric branch of SMT, especially with the 3DS.

Awkward, periphery choice for originating from a subseries rather than the namesake one. Even less of a star compared to SMT or Persona offerings. Could be covered as a Summoner if it came down to it.


The protagonist of Persona 4 and it spinoffs, a subseries so adaptable and popular that it could compete within its parent franchise. The Robin of his series, who can even be renamed! Even has Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth to his name, establishing his presence on the 3DS.

Uses Tarot cards to summon Personas and is often depicted with a katana as a main weapon. The Personas even cover most of the popular SMT demons. His own Persona, Izanagi, can assist him as a main feature of his moveset and has electric magic in its pugilist attack style. This would work as either a puppet, special move, or offers some sort of interplay.

Doesn't even come from the namesake series and may be seen more as a Persona character than a SMT one. Most likely going to end up being cycled through with Persona 5 around the corner.


The adorable, comical teddy bear suit of Persona 4. He's almost taking on a secondary mascot vibe due to his game's success.Even has Persona Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth to his name, establishing his presence on the 3DS.

Fights with retractable claws and other objects within his suit, along with Kotoki-Douji and Kamui serving as Personas with ballistic attacks involving industrial-grade military missiles. Fits in great with Smash's cartoony environment and light atmosphere.

Competes with Jack Frost for star status, but has an edge in recency. Just lacks the legacy Jack and the other protagonists have. Not even the main character of Persona 4, a subseries of the namesake series. Could be phased out in time with Persona 5, but definitely will have a fandom.


"What are you talkin' about? That's Donkey Kong!"

Yeah, not exactly. Proof that SMT is no stranger to mature content, Mara's something Nintendo wouldn't touch with a 10-foot maypole.

If you want to see what the fuss is about, just Google it. Or wait, you probably shouldn't.


*Concept: Most Popular Ballot Characters By Region x5

Please feel free to tag me on the following days: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot, Smash 5 Has 10 Year Wait Cycle, Most Popular Ballot Characters By Region, & Galacta Knight. I'm welcome to the reunion if I'm around.
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Smash Lord
Jan 7, 2013
Chance and Want: 0% - Doesn't stand a chance.

SMT Character
Chance: 1% - None of them are very highly requested at all.
Want: 50% - Completely neutral here.

Karate Joe prediction: 8%
Crono prediction: 2%

Nominations: Azura x5



Smash Lord
Jan 7, 2013
CHANCE: 0.84%
WANT: 9.37%

CHANCE: 4.26%
WANT: 25.36%
It took a while but we finally have our first character with under 1% chance. Next up we're rating both Karate Joe of Rhythm Hreaven and Crono, also please predict what scores Takamaru and Slippy Toad will get tomorrow.


Smash Master
Aug 21, 2014
New York
Karate Joe

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%
Ah, Rhythm Heaven...Nobody thought much of it until Gematsu, and suddenly everyone wants an RH rep more than anything else in the world. Bonus points now since that series symbol was found. Still, there might be a reason he was cut, and with the limited slots and the many possibilities of a RH rep, they might all end up stealing votes from one another. Joe is a pretty good contender here since he's actually a fighter, but other than that, he's not really anything special. I think he's perfect as a trophy as he is now. Better choice than those three little freaks though, IMO. Though I'd prefer the Wrestler since he's funny (and then could get the Remix 4 ninja as an alt). Really, the best thing is make a RH stage with all of them as elements (since Sm4sh LOVES gimmicky stages to a fault) and then put in Ridley K.Rool someone else as a full character.
Also I suck at his minigame.

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
Blah blah Square Enix, Blah blah another anime swordsman, Blah blah I hate third parties on principle, Blah blah can we please stop rating characters who have basically the same counter arguments? Let's get some concepts to the top so we can actually say different things for once.
Sorry, just had to vent for a sec...
Predictions for both characters: 4.5%

Nom: Classic mode return x5


Formerly "ZeroSoul"
Writing Team
Sep 28, 2014
South Carolina
Super Saiyan God Goku with a sword:
it's pretty obvious when you see them side by side, no?

Chances: 2% I can't see this being likely at all, he's third party, doesn't have a massive fan following, and even in Square Enix he's beat out by Geno, who doesn't have much of a chance but certainly dampers his.
Want: 20% I don't really care for Chrono at all, but I gave him a few points because of Akira's art style being so cool.

Karate Joe:
Chances: 13% Finally, it's been so long since we had an actual candidate. Sakurai's recent speech hurts his chances but regardless, we know a Rhythm Heaven character was indeed planned, so it is likely that a Rhythm Heaven character will eventually pop up, perhaps not this game, but he's almost a shoo-in for the next. He doesn't have very much demand, but the lack of rep for Rhythm Heaven may just get him in anyway, after all it would indeed be fan service to give rhythm heaven fans a character, no?

Want: 30% I don't care much for him, but the Rhythm Heaven fans need something at least.

Deleted member

First Spyro, then Owain. Which dark lord of the old RTC thread is next?

Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot) x170
*takes a deep breath*

Karate Joe

Chance: 10%

Rhythm Heaven has been on Sakurai's radar in terms of representation in Smash, but the inclusion of two songs from the series on the Miiverse stage concerns me.

Want: 80%

Honestly, I'd prefer this character over the Chorus Men.


Chance: 1%

He may be popular among nostalgic SNES collectors and dedicated fans of classic JRPG's alike, but he's owned by the stingy Square Enix. Nothing more needs to be said here.

Want: 75%

One of the Square Enix characters I'm more interested in seeing in Smash.


Takamaru - 5%

Slippy Toad - 2.5%

Nominations: Snake x5
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Smash Journeyman
Apr 14, 2014
I'm going to be doing these off of mobile for a week, so details are going to be somewhat minimal.

Karate Joe

Chance- 8%
Feasible. Might not even be the first choice in his series, though. Could use some more support.
Want- 55%
Indifferent plus a little more for being a new series.

Chrono- 1%
The issues for him don't need explaining.
Want- 100%
Doesn't mean I can't like the idea, though. Would have a nice moveset and trophies with fantastic music and stage.
One of the things I like about Crono as a third party rep is that when I think of the game, I think of the Super Nintendo as much as I think of Square, partially because it was such a defining game for the console and since Square hasn't done anything with the series since Chrono Cross.
Despite my usual hesitation on more third parties, I can't help but give a pass this time. Chrono Trigger is one of my favorite games, so I would definitely love to see representation. I'd say more if I had the time.

Takamaru Predictions- 5%
Slippy Predictions- 13%
Adeleine x3
Sami x2


Smash Modder
Jun 26, 2014
South Florida
Wasn't Crono killed by that white skinned midget with two swords?

Wait, that was Cronos. My bad.


Chance: 5%

A timeless hero from a massively praised RPG, that's for sure, but I think Square has other characters that they'd push to include before Crono, if they even want to get in Sm4sh at all.

Want: 2%

Trust me when I say that I like Chrono Trigger, but there are third parties that I'd want before him.

Karate Joe:

Chance: 20%

We know that a Rhythm Heaven symbol is in the Wii U version's data, but it's extremely ambiguous. There are two songs and lots of trophies to Rhythm Heaven's name, so surely that counts for something.

Want: Abstain.

No familiarity to the series.

Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
Sep 20, 2011
Chicago, Illinois
Switch FC
Karate Joe

Chance- 8%
Fan favorite character that appeared in every title since Rhythm Tengoku and he might not have the same issues as the Chorus Kids from a programming perspective. His minimal support and the decent Rhythm Heaven support in Japan is what keeps him behind the times.

Want- 70%
If only for the sake of having that Karate Man song in the game. Plus the Karate Man games were always fun in every title.


Chance- 1%
No comment, it's pretty obvious like the other Square characters I've talked about.

Want- 10%
I sadly never played a single game from the franchise at all and only know of him from a fan game of all things. He would be cool, but I'd prefer a Final fantasy character over him.

Takamaru Predictions- 5%
Slippy Predictions- 13%

Nominations: Style Savvy x5


Character Concept Creator
Mar 23, 2012
St. Louis, MO
One of the unforeseen problems with twofers:

Depending on the pair, they can be very hard to write intro jokes for.


Karate Joe

Chance: 8%
A standout among the mass that is the Rhythm Heaven cast. As part of some of the fans' favorite challenges, he'd likely be among the characters considered if they were to bring in a character from the series. There's also the fact that there was further Rhythm Heaven content initially planned, and who knows if we might get a couple more characters before the Smash Ballot closes?

...Here's the thing, though. Karate Joe would probably need to get in pre-Ballot, because support amongst Rhythm Heaven characters is spread so thin that it hurts the chances of any making it in that way. With talk of the remaining DLC focusing on the fans, it puts a long line of even the viable characters in front of the Rhythm Heaven cast that'd really hurt their chances unless something changes.

That's not even getting into narrow down which Rhythm Heaven character they'd implement. Even though Karate Joe is popular, there's only so much moveset potential you can derive from rhythmic chops and kicks, especially compared to what else the series has to offer.

Want: 27.5%
As I've mentioned before, I have a long history with music and I'd at least take a look at a character with a rhythm-based mechanic. Despite that, though, I don't think Karate Joe is the right character for the job. I still feel like Marshal could showcase all of what Rhythm Heaven is better than any of its other characters could.


Chance: 3.25%

A soft-spoken warrior with a kind heart who'd put his life on the line to protect those he cares about. Chrono Trigger is one of the all time classics, as far as RPGs go, and perhaps Square Enix would want to jump on the retro train the way Capcom did with Ryu's SFII influence. There's even a decent amount of uniqueness there, between various katana techniques and lightning magic, with the mighty Luminaire as a Final Smash!

But alas, things are more complicated than that. Third party characters already have a tougher road than Nintendo-owned ones, much less characters from a company that hasn't been involved in Smash yet. Within Square-Enix itself, there're multiple characters to choose from, and Crono isn't really turning heads as far as support goes. Even if they decided to jump into Smash 4 late, someone else--like the iconic Black Mage--would almost assuredly get the nod instead.

Want: 45%
Despite how little of a chance he has, he'd be kind of cool. Maybe that's just the side of me that really likes magic knights talking.

Takamaru Prediction: 3.62%
That whole "I'm an Assist Trophy already" thing will keep his rating down. Next game, maybe?

Slippy Prediction: 16.75%

He hasn't seen much support, but Star Fox Zero and a so-called "greater role" will push his ratings a little higher than expected. Bet there'll also be a few saying he "deserves it more" than Krystal, too.

Let's speed this up a little, shall we?

Absol x10!

Mr. Nintendo

Feb 8, 2014
Karate Joe:
Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

The idea of a Rhythm Heaven character does appeal and Karate Joe is among the most iconic of them.

Crono: Double 0

Third Party character with I think one game and a remake? I don't see it happening

Takamaru Prediction: 3.4%
Slippy Prediction: 8%

Nominate all veterans returning x5


Smash Journeyman
Jun 14, 2011
Mushroom Kingdom
Karate Joe

Chances : 23%

Rhythm Heaven if it's lucky will get playable representation, and Karate Joe is actually at the top with chances, being a master of karate himself he can make one smooth transition. However though his chances are almost dead from his status as collectible trophy.

Want : 6%

Not really all "oh yeah i need this" on whole RHYTHM HEAVEN representation aside from music and a level if it gets one. Cuz after all, it IS about the music...


Wow @ Zerp Zerp ... was always wondering why he looked like he came straight outta DBZ o.O


Chances : 8%

His game is a favorite of RPG fans across the world. I think that his chances are a bit better than what he is getting.

Want : 67%

Haven't gotten my hands on Crono Trigger but the guy looks cool and has a wide range of moves ( if i'm not mistaken )



15+ total score at best. However though, he has only gotten a noticing with his game on US 3DS VC, and his inclusion in Smash Bros ( Woah cool japanese swordsman guy with projectile attack! ).


4+% total score. This guy is basically the annoying Toad ( lol... Toads as annoying as Slippy. I see what they did there. ) of Star Fox, but his "Tech-savvy" nature could probably help for moveset potential.

And as usual with NOM NOM NOMZ...



W/E happens don't panic...
Jan 13, 2015
Mintendo Noodle House
Switch FC
Karate Joe

Chance: 10%
Rhythm Heaven is a popular franchise, and the Gematsu had put the Chorus Kids on the map. Karate Joe is one of the more popular characters from this franchise, but the biggest problem with Rhythm Heaven is that a 'set' playable character doesn't appear too obvious since so many characters appear in the series and each one isn't really any more prominent than the other...Marshall is arguably the face of the series, while characters like Karate Joe and Rhythm Monkey are popular characters from their respective mini games...because their isn't a definitive main character support gets spread rather thin...so it is unlikely we'll see the Karate man drop a beat on the competition...maybe in the next game but not for DLC...


Want: 10%
Eh...he may be cool, haven't played Rhythm Heaven yet but I saw some gameplay of his mini-games and it seems like something I'd get bored with after 10 minutes of play...as a fighter in Smash he may be interesting...i dunno...


Red-headed Goku...


Chance: 1%
Square Enix property, so not only is he third party, but he's owned by a company that is rather cautious with lending out their property...not to mention...if Square Enix were to contribute a character it would be from Final Fantasy because it is their big money maker...Crono is one of those characters who pops up here and there but not a lot of people are begging for...


Want: 0%


Takamaru: 4.5%
Being a summon is detrimental to his chances but his popularity has increased since then...it would be cool to have a Samurai on the roster though...

Slippy: 3.2%
Wolf.........and Krystal.....Slippy is sort of a Navi tier icon...well known and recognizable...but for the wrong reasons....


Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x3
!Rerate: Impa x1
Sylux x1
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Smash Champion
Jul 23, 2014
"What did you say about my hair?!"
Switch FC
1, 2! 1, 2! Hit three!!
Karate Joe Chances: 18%

It's possible we might get a Rhythm Heaven character as DLC - and being a fighter by nature like Ryu and Little Mac, Karate Joe wouldn't have too many issues being a fighter with a unique moveset. At the moment, I'd say his competition are the Chorus Men and Wrestler for the title of a Rhythm Heaven representing character.

Want: 33%
I may be somewhat influenced by the broken score of Gematsu - but I'd like to see what could be done with the Chorus Men if they decided to go back and redo them. I won't object to Karate Joe - since he was one of the choices that was brought up initially when people thought about a Rhythm Heaven character alongside Wrestler. Not to mention his theme (Depending on which song you prefer) is awesome.

I'll abstain from Crono - I've very little connection to him anyway, but I've always heard of how good his game is. I just need an opportunity to play it for myself.


:crying: I legitimately cried when I saw him as an Assist Trophy. He's the next Assist Trophy character I want playable for the next Smash Bros - since he's null and void at this point... (Ghirahim too, if he does have another game appearance, and maybe Waluigi) I believe that Takamaru is going to be Smash 4's Little Mac - but he'll need more global recognition to stand a chance in Smash 5's future speculation scene.

Slippy Prediction: 3.21%

Nominations: Waluigi X5


Smash Master
Jul 16, 2014
Switch FC
Karate Joe:

Chance: 10% He gets a little boost due to being in Rhythm Heaven which was palnned to have a rep in SSB4, but he's overshadowed by the likes the Chorus Kids and Marshal.



Chance: 5% Black Mage, or a Chocobo is a more likely rep.

Want: 70% Why not? I really enjoyed Chrono Trigger.


Takamaru: 3.04%

Slippy: 2.75%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5


Bandana Brigade Captain
Aug 13, 2013
(v(- ' ' -)>↑
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Karate Joe: OMG, finally a character with chances!
Chances: 5%
Want: 10%

But, yeah, his chances are low, RH characters are not that popular in the ballot and RH music added as DLC in the Miiverse stage is pretty bad for them IMO.


!Rerate Chibi Robo X5


Off floating somewhere
Sep 16, 2014
Karate Joe

Chance: 3%

Want: 3%

Predictions Chrono 3%


Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions: Slippy 5%

Predictions: Takamaru 3%

Nominations: Sami X5.


Smash Journeyman
Mar 21, 2014
Rhythm Heaven
- Karate Joe -

Chance: 15%
Want: 100%
-The only way I can see Karate Joe getting in is if Sakurai sees that people want a Rhythm Heaven character, but since the Chorus Kids might have some issues, he decides to give the second most wanted Rhythm Heaven character the spot (If it isn't the Wrestler).
But unfortunately, I think it's rather unlikely.
Karate Joe is definitely one of my top 5 choices, however.

- It is true that Rhythm Heaven characters didn't have a lot of support before the leak, even I didn't think about it, but now, the idea is in peoples heads and they want it.
(Rhythm Heaven was already long before the leak one of my favorite franchises, if you're curious.)

(I'll abstain to rate Crono, because I can't say a lot about him. I never played the game.)


Takamaru: 3%

Slippy: 6%

Nominations: 1x King Boo, 2x Mother Brain, 2x Viruses (Dr. Mario)
(Silly me forgot the nominations yesterday.)


Smash Lord
Jul 27, 2014
Owain got a <1% chances score as I expected yesterday? Yeah finally it's happening!!

Karate Joe chances: abstain
Not going to rate any specific Rhythm Heaven character.

Karate Joe want: 15%
Playable Rhythm Heaven representation doesn't interest me very much.


Crono chances: 0.33%
For what I know about him he was a pretty big deal for his time, with Chrono Trigger being on par if not above Final Fantasy, but unfortunately Crono (ironically) didn't stand the test of time as a big gaming icon. Plus he's a property of Square Enix. Well, his chances don't look pretty.

Crono want: 15%
I have no connection with him and third-party characters are a huge deal in Smash Bros., though I guess he's not really an horrible choice considering his historical importance.


Takamaru prediction: 4.22%
I have a feeling he'll get the highest chances score among all characters who currently are Assist Trophies.

Slippy prediction: 4.80%
He's neither Wolf or Krystal.

Playable newcomer: Tetrimino x5


Smash Lord
Jul 26, 2013
Crash Bandicoot x5

Too lazy to rate, even if Karate Joe is in my sig. Someone call me when Crash is rated. Seriously, call me


Overkill Sarcasm
Dec 24, 2013
The Fabulous Friendly Super Sparkle Train
Karate Joe:
Chance: 10%.
He has the merit of being one of, if not, the most recurring and iconic Rhythm Heaven character, even factoring in the Gematsu leak (Chorus Kids) and memes (Wrestler). Demand for a Rhythm Heaven character in general is starting to become pretty high, so considering his importance I could see him being picked to represent the series over others.

Want: 85%.
I think Rhythm Heaven is one of the most interesting series not yet represented in Smash. I'm really surprised that a Rhythm Heaven character didn't even get in as an Assist Trophy considering how one-note most of them are. This is my personal pick for a Rhythm Heaven character after the Wrestler & Reporter, due to his merits and him being the most interesting as a fighter.

Chance: 2%. While Chrono Trigger is a well-loved game and Crono definitely has a good reason to be in Smash, he's not in demand and if we were getting a character from a Square RPG, it would be from Final Fantasy. That's not to say getting a Square Enix "rep" is particularly likely anyway.

Want: Abstain. Haven't actually played Chrono Trigger, so no input. However he looks like a Dragon Ball Z character so he gets a pass in my book.

Jill Valentine x3
Excitebike x2


Smash Journeyman
Apr 6, 2015
Karate Joe

Chance: 3%
Back in the day, it was all about the Chorus kids( or Men, take your pick) but there were plenty of people against the idea because of... reasons I guess, which is why they decided that if anybody from the RH series were to get into smash, they'd rather it be Karate Joe. But that's it, he was just an alternative to an otherwise unpopular choice and hardly anybody was serious about wanting him in the game. As it stands, he's not popular enough.

Want: 30%

He'd be a cool addition, but the Chorus kids would be cooler in my mind.


Chance: 10%

I've seen support for him, but it's not strong. And to think people were actually thinking that theyd choose him over Sora( even though hes owned by Disney) or Geno...

Want: 15%


Nomination: Sora x5


Smash Journeyman
Jun 6, 2009
Crono -
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

Karate Joe -
Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Predictions -

Takemaru - 6%

Slippy Toad - 10%

Nomination: Smash 5 has 10 year wait cycle x 5
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Jul 12, 2014
An elevator
chance 0
want abstain

Karate joe
chance 7%
The guy has some competition from the chorus kids for sure. Im not exactly sure sakurai would go "well our first idea didnt work so ill just go to another character instead" i just dont see him going from whatever gimmick the kids had to someone so different in appearance and body type.

Want 10%
easily my least favorite if all the frontrunners. Probably because he is the least unique looking.

Takamaru 5%

Slippy 15%

Agnes oblige x5


Smash Lord
Jun 25, 2014
The elegant battlefield.
Karate Joe
Note - video does not portray how I feel about Karate

3% - Well, for starters, we have the Rhythm Heaven Symbol in the game, although I don't see it holding much water. For example, the Hanenbow stage from Brawl had a Symbol with no fighter to match. I'd also like to assume that the Ice Climber Symbol is somewhere in the game due to how close the Ice Climbers were to completion. This means that symbols don't add much to chance. Also, the Gematsu leak was proven false, also diminishing chance. Lastly, however, we have the saving grace of Karate Joe, people want a Rhythm Heaven character. However, if he is the popular choice, well... that's debatable.

1% - However, I'm not one of those people who want a Rhythm Heaven character. Before the Gemats Leak, I wasn't even aware of the franchise. From what I know, it's a derivative of the Wario Ware series, but... Wario is derived from the Mario series. The series itself just doesn't interest me, without the false leak, many wouldn't even be asking for a Rhythm Heaven character (many not all, it has it's following, and I'm glad for those who adamantly push for the character, I'm just not a supporter).

Crono - C'mon guys, we've been over this, no Dragon Ball character will ever be in Sma-
...wait, what? He's not a Dragon Ball character? But the hair clearly-
*more murmuring*
Just drawn by the creator of Dragon Ball? Oh...Well then...

10% - This guy was a big RPG star back in the day. Some would say that this hurts his chances, but he could be a "retro" character like Game&Watch. However, we've never seen a retro "3rd Party," aside from Pac-Man, but even he has ...modern iterations, even if they are, dis-pleasurable. Square Enix, as we've discussed earlier, has multiple options if they were to give consent of a character, so chances of it being Crono are... pretty low.

5% - Again, everyone, I'm kinda done with the "anime esque swordsman" category, it's really been tapped out. Crono would definitely be in that category, especially since he was created in the style of Dragon Ball! With that, I'd still prefer Black Mage from Enix anyways.

Takamaru - Oh, the new Little Mac of the game, meaning he's an assist trophy who people expect to see playable next time, 3%
Slippy - Something tells me he won't be able to shake those bad ratings of his tail, 2%

Vaati X5


Rainbow Waifu
Dec 16, 2012
Switch FC
The Rhythm Heaven idea seems to have been shelved for the next game, at this rate. None of the pre-ballot DLC is likely to be him, nor does he have any ballot support.

WANT: 10%
The entire Gematsu fiasco completely turned me against any Rhythm Heaven characters. Karate Joe is, however, my favourite of the bunch.
Back in the day, his game was a killer app for the SNES, just like FF VII was for the PS1. That said, his game is largely a relic of the past now. Despite being one of the most beloved RPGs of all time, it remained a stand-alone title and Crono Cross couldn't ever reach the fame of the original, not that anyone expected it to. Being a retro 3rd party belonging to a stingy company is one of the worst positions you can possibly have.

WANT: 2%
For what it's worth, he's the closest Goku-lookalike we'll ever have a chance of getting, a 2% is for that. :p





Smash Lord
Apr 20, 2014
Karate Joe:
Chance: 12%
The icon is there. However, he finds himself lagging behind Chorus Kids in support.

Want: 50%
I'll take the Chorus Kids or Rhythm Girl first.

Chance: 3%
Not in this generation.

Want: 1%

Predictions for Takamaru: 3% Chance, 78% Want
Predictions for Slippy: 15% Chance, 47% Want

Nominate Homecoming Hijinx x 5

Deleted member

The Directory has been updated.

Karate Joe
Chance and Want:

I will be honest, I have little to no idea on the Rhythm Heaven franchise and I don't really care, so...


Amazing and popular game, little to no ballot support, and there are a ton of Square Enix characters that they could choose from.
Want: Abstain
I should really play Trigger when I get the chance...

Takamaru Prediction: 7.33%
I sense overrating.

Slippy Prediction: 5.94%
Wolf and Krystal are the frontrunners.

Nominations: Young Link 5x


Smash Journeyman
Apr 2, 2015
Karate Joe
Chances 10%... with luck...
Want: 0%...nah for me, I preffer other chatacters of RH

Chances: 5% Square Enix... man this company has a lot of characters...
Want: 50%... a real Anime swordman, in a good way.

Takamaru: Link's brother already is in the game, maybe in the next one if they make another game... 12%
Slippy: isn't wolf... 3%

Bomberman x5
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Smash Lord
Jan 19, 2013
Karate Joe

Chance - 2.25% - Yeah, with the current amount of Rhythm Heaven content, it seems that it's not really on their mind at the moment. I would think that he's the front runner, but for now I think any content would be left for the next game.

Want - 90% - He's my preferred choice for a Rhythm Heaven character.


Chance - 0% - A third party from an ageing game while there are several juggernauts left within the same company. Yeah, no chance.

Want - 40% - Would rather have other third parties.

Yay, extra nominations!

Secondary ballot X10


Smash Champion
Dec 10, 2013
Karate Joe
10% Chance
50% Want
I see Chorus Kids as far more likely, but I do see a RH rep as a lock, and Joe is pretty synonimous with the series. I just don't think he would be as visually diverse as Rhythm Girl, Chrous Kids, or even Marshall.

2% Chance
100% want
I love Chrono Trigger. Its in my favorite games of all time. But lets be honest, Crono has no chance. His series is miniscule compared to Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy, both of which are legendary enough to warrant reps. Crono does not have a dedicated fanbase to get him in like Banjo, Rayman, or Shantae, or a huge franchise like Snake, Ryu, or Black Mage. He would be cool, but he will not happen.

Nominating Pichu x 5


Smash Hero
Sep 4, 2014
Switch FC
Karate Joe

Chance: 10%

Karate Joe is a very popular choice for a Rhythm Heaven rep, and it makes sense considering he already screams, "I'm a fighter" just by looking at him. A Rhythm Heaven rep is not entirely out of the possibility either considering demand for a character from those games has been strong since we heard about the Gematsu Leak back then. Sadly, what really holds him back is his current trophy status (though on second thought, the same deal happened with Mewtwo and Lucas, so it doesn't hurt his chances entirely), his lack of support on the wider Smash ballot scene, and the fact we have two Rhythm Heaven tracks on the Miiverse stage when such music should be saved for the actual Rhythm Heaven stage. Considering a rep was planned at one point thanks to the RH icon found in the game's data, he definitely doesn't have a 0% chance.

Want: 35%

While I do understand why people want to see him included, I'm actually one of those people who would prefer seeing Marshal get into the roster instead when it comes to a Rhythm Heaven rep.


Chance: 5%

His games were huge back in the SNES days, and if Square Enix wants to go for a real "retro-rep", they can do so with Chrono. Sadly, being third party already hurts Chrono's chances, especially when Square Enix is pretty strict when it comes to character inclusions, and compared to other Square Enix, he doesn't have the highest demand for a Smash Bros inclusion compared to characters like the Black Mage.

Want: Abstain

I never played Chrono Trigger nor any games that starred him, so I can't say much else here.


Takamaru (The Mysterious Murasame Castle): 2.23%
Slippy (Star Fox): 4.72%


Jean Descole (Professor Layton): x3
Gallade (Pokemon): x2

Iko MattOrr

Smash Lord
Jul 20, 2014
Karate Joe:
Chance: 60%
He is the most recurring character of the Rhythm Heaven series, and definitely suited for being converted in to a Smash Bros fighter.
Quite requested and popular as well; even if the gematsu leak influenced people with the chorus kids, that honestly I never considered as important characters, having played every RH game except the arcade and the 3DS ones for obvious reasons (and again, in those games seems that Karate Joe has a major role/high presence in many minigames, also being again the opening minigame, the first one you meet).
Want: 100%
He's my very second most wanted character.

Crono: abstain
I don't know almost anything about him and the game he appears in.

Takamaru prediction: 1% (20% in Smash 5, 0% as DLC, because he's already an assistant)
Slippy prediction: 5% (he's a support character of Fox, his role is the same of Falco and Falco already represents that role, he would be redundant. Not before Wolf and Krystal)

Nominate: Dark Matter x5


Smash Lord
Apr 4, 2014
Karate Joe
Chance: 7.5%
His chances depend on whether or not Rhythm Heaven is going to get a DLC character, and even then he has some tough competition from his franchise. I'll give the karate master a score of 7.5%.
Not impossible, but not all that likely either...

Want: 15%
Doesn't matter to me which character from Rhythm Heaven becomes a playable character if we even get one.

Chance: 0.3%
Third party, minuscule support, competition. I'll give the next Square Enix character a rating of only 0.3%.
What else is there to say...

Want: 0.6%
I've got no real reason to want this character.

Prediction - Takamaru: 1.6%, Slippy: 2.8%

x5 Tails the Fox


Smash Master
Jan 24, 2015
Karate Joe and Crono day...

Karate Joe:

Chance: 20%

Hey! Another guy with a actually possible chance... RH has the possibility to have a character... But... Who?

Want: 50%

I'm okay with him


Chance: 0.5%

His game is old... Is popular and great, but old... Also, Third Party.

Want: 50%

Him looks cools, and his game is great... But... I don't have another opinion about this.

Predictions: Takamaru and Slippy Toad

Takamaru Chance: 4.5%
Slippy Chance: 6%


Rerate!Snake x5
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