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Pros
- One of the most popular Awakening characters
Enough to warrant a return in Fates as a playable character, instead of an expy, and could provide a dark magic-based move-set rather than Robin's elemental-based... also, why do I even bother with spoilers if others won't...
- It's ****ing Owain
Cons
- Fire Emblem's lack of precedence for non-main characters to be playable - not even Tiki or Anna are playable, despite serving more longterm service as recurring characters
- Almost nobody bothering to request him, especially when a massive popularity poll is taken to consideration
- There are too many popular suggestions that overtake whatever little there is for Owain
- Since further DLC will provide fan-service, Owain's inclusion would only satisfy a shrinkingly-small amount of Smash fans
- Just a small fish among an ocean of Fire Emblem characters
- Fire Emblem may have already fulfilled its quota for playable characters with Robin, Lucina, and Roy's additions
- Any more FE characters could result in widespread backlash against Sakurai for perceived favoritism of a smaller series
- Even if Sakurai couldn't care less about FE's preferential treatment (and he probably doesn't), the obvious DLC choice would be Corrin or, more than likely, a lance-wielding Azura, as their star power and move-set potential far outclasses Owain's - Higher probability of ending up as a Mii Costume than a fully fleshed-out fighter
- It's ****ing Owain
Want: 0%
Given Fire Emblem's diverse cast of characters, there are other choices I would vastly prefer, even though I like Owain.
Shin Megami Tensai Character
Chance: 0.1%
Despite a crossover with Fire Emblem, the SMT titles are still third-party property of Atlus. Sakurai is not going to waste his developmental resources and contractual obligations on a niche series like SMT. If Sakurai decided to extend his third-party invitation to less-than-legendary figures, Shantae and Shovel Knight are far more popular picks, as well as more sensible.
Want: 10%
I'm amused by the idea of a playable Jack Frost, but otherwise I'm not interested, even though I like the series (there's a theme here, it seems, me liking the unlikely).
Chance
.01% - A character never really can have "0%," even the scratch cat we just rated. However, the closest I'll ever give to 0% is .01%, essentially very close, but still falls under the "anything can happen" clause. So why does Owain have no chance? For starters, everyone for the most part seems sick/tired of Fire Emblem characters, it's gotten to the point where they no tie with the Zelda series in reps, the ZELDA SERIES! Let's also bring to count that Owain isn't really a major character in Fire Emblem itself. Owain is... really not in a good place.
Want
0% - I myself have no connection to Fire Emblem really, especially this character. I'll also jump on the "I've seen enough Fire Emblem characters this time around, unless it's a new character from FE14, and even then, I'm not sure exactly how to feel.
SMT character
Chance
10% - I'm starting to shy away from using DLC to introduce any new series to Smash Bros. In a way, it feels like a bad practice. However, giving the fact that they are getting a FE crossover, it doesn't seem too unlikely that it can happen.
Want
20% - Not a fan of the series really, and with the fact that of all games it's crossing over with being Fire Emblem, well, it doesn't inspire me that we'll get anything new from these characters. However, I suppose I can't really make a judgement that way, so I'll throw in 20% just because... eh.
All this Fire Emblem talk can't be good for people...
Predictions: Karate Joe - 11%, only because people really seem hung up on getting a Rhythm Heaven character
Predictions: Crono - 6%, can't really say why I feel he won't do to well really.
Another Fire Emblem character...see all previous arguments.
He's pretty new, so he doesn't have nostalgia going for him, but he's popping up in the new game. However, most people are getting tired of Fire Emblem by now. I don't mind a lot from that series since they seem cool enough (I suppose I should eventually play one of their games), but there are WAY more characters I'd like to see in.
which absolutely should be in the game. Can we have a T-rex or some dinosaur assist from Fossil Fighters please?
SMT Character:
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
Don't really know the series, and it seems pretty one-regioned. I've heard more about Persona (granted, not much more, but at least I recognize it as a game series) over here, but that's only a spin-off. True, they're crossing over with Fire Emblem soon, but still...
Besides, I think that after Ryu, and with the limited DLC slots we're going to have, I don't want to see any more 3rd parties in. This is Nintendo's game, and there are too many 1st parties who deserve to get in, and have deserved that since Melee at least...
Shin Megami Tensei Character
Chances : 10%
Only a whopping 10 thanks to the upcoming crossover. SMT has seen releases on Nintendo consoles, though this doesn't go wide.
Want : 1%
Unfamiliar.
OwainHOO?
Chances 1%
Fire Emblem.
Want : 6%
Predictions
Karate Joe... Well, i'd say 12+ total score, he's probably the only RH character that can make the smoothest Smash Transition. Only cuz he's got the moves to show to .
Crono
Probably 20+. This guy is very popular!
And looks a lot like Goku. Maybe it'll make some people happy?!
He's... uhh... incredibly likely?
He was number two on the polls that determined the DLC for the game.
He has a character that looks like him in the new game!
And... uhh... he has a trophy in the 3DS version of Smash.
Owain is highly likely! I think...?
Wright, how often do you insist on your bluffs?
The character is very irrelevant in Awakening and isn't important to the story or necessary to beat the game.
He could get killed and the game just moves on without him.
His mother, Lissa, doesn't even need to be married, meaning you can have a playthrough without him.
I will give you that he is popular, but he isn't demanded by any means.
Even then, the evidence shows that Chrom is a more popular character, and he is already a Final Smash for Robin.
Judging by this data, I say that he is... IMPOSSIBLE!
Well... uhh...
I guess Phoenix Mode doesn't always work after all...
I need more evidence before I can go into Turnabout Mode!
What I have is bad evidence.
It's quite clear that Owain is a very irrelevant character who only appeared in one game. He is a one-off, but he is still a popular Fire Emblem character. Still, the game moves on without him if he dies and his mother isn't required to get married, meaning that you might never meet him.
He also comes from a series with a ton of representation as it is. It would be hard to justify a character like Owain.
So... Owain's chance is 0%.
As for want, I will give him a want of 100%. He's funny as hell and one of my favorites in Awakening.
I will say that my mind in terms of characters has changed... but Owain is my strange exception.
SMT Character
Chance: 1%
I am just doubtful that SMT will receive a character. If there is one, I bet it would be Jack Frost, the mascot enemy. As a whole, SMT isn't a tremendously popular series and there isn't any ballot support from what I've seen. Want: 50%
I'm really kinda interested in Jack Frost and no one else really.
Chrono Prediction: 1.84%
Highly popular game, not a very likely Square choice. Karate Joe Prediction: 9.31%
Easy to make moveset.
Owain was a joke character that was nominated VERY EARLY in RTC's lifecycle. He was nominated thanks to the folks from GameFAQs and the like and was rated before Robin, Lyn, Chrom and even other newcomers like Duck Hunt Dog and Rosalina. His day was notorious for having low ratings and thus his name lives in infamy among players in the original RTC.
Even if you ignore the "too many FE reps" sentiment, he'd have to compete with much more popular characters such as Anna, Tiki, and new protagonist Kamui. It's like an ant fighting a sun.
Owain
Chance: 0%
Don't really need to explain. A random one off character (kinda) who's not actually important to the plot, or at least, uniquely important.
Want: 100%
Absolutely. My second favorite character in Awakening. He's funny, nice, and hilariously adorkable. I would love it if he got into Smash. Although my siblings would probably get annoyed of me saying "My WiiMote hand twitches." all the time and other variations of that.
Shin Megami Tensei
Chance: 3%
Not very likely.
Want: 0%
Not really interesting to me.
Actually, I'll just pass on this one. I don't know much about it, so I wouldn't be able to make a fair guess.
and so it's starts...that point where I'm beginning to lose interest in this game mainly because the characters we're rating are not very interesting to me....probably gonna be adding short explanations from here on out, and probably gonna start distancing myself from the RTC until we get some characters I care about/have a more than decent chance...may even start abstaining simply because I'll get bored of adding my almost double zeros (because I don't like certainties) for every round...
Owain
Chance: 0.1%
Fire Emblem, over-repped...lack of support, better choices...blahblah
----
Want: 0%
Fire Emblem, overrepped...lack of support, better choices...blahblah
Chance: 0.5%
Fire Emblem crossover relevance, third party....blah blah...
----
Want: 0%
First off, what did I say about the Rhythm Heaven rep day? Why are we not rating specific characters, instead of a 'general' case...either way...no interest and rather not...
----
Prediction: Karate Joe: 11.2% Crono: 1.4%
----
Nominations: Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x3 (I'm even running out of things to write here...) !Rerate: Impa x1 Sylux x1
Optional, unimportant, nobody cares... Also he has to "compete" with character more popular and more "relevant" like Tiki, Anna, Micaiah, the guy from Fates, etc.
Owain
Chance- 0.25%
Lol…
Want- 10%
Just because it'd make me smile if I saw him. But if he got in, we might not get to rate this guy again next time around, ehh? Actually, he'd definitely be rated since he'd be among the obvious first cuts.
SMT Character
Chance- 1.5%
Want- 0%
Not a whole lot to say. Don't see it happening, and I don't want it happening.
Karate Joe Predictions- 12%
Argument of supporters will follow: Rhythm Heaven character obviously intended > Chorus Kids Can't be Implemented > Karate Joe a clear next replacement. Or something like that. Others will say there are other replacements, like Marshall, or that a RH character won't happen. Crono Predictions- 3%
Has the misfortune of shortly following other Square Enix characters. What little good will he would have had will be burnt out. That said, want score might be a little better since his game is still beloved and originally came out on the SNES.
First off, what did I say about the Rhythm Heaven rep day? Why are we not rating specific characters, instead of a 'general' case...either way...no interest and rather not...
Shin Megami Tensei, as far as I can tell, is like Fire Emblem where there are no permanent protagonists. Characters come and go, and while Jack Frost is the arguable mascot, he's never truly been an important character. Who could get in is a point of debate.
As for Rhythm Heaven, being a mini game collection series with little in the way of story, we could do an entire weeks worth of characters and still not really cover every possible candidate. There's the Monkeys, Marshal, the Chorus Kids, Karate Joe, the Wandering Samurai, the Barista Dog, the Tap Trial Girl, Wrestler X (+ or - the reporter), and that's not considering we could get a composite like Duck Hunt where several characters are brought together under one move set.
Owain
Chance - 0.15% - Fire Emblem already has a character, so that's a huge dampener on everybody. However, he's already popular, and apparently he's in Fates. Still, that's not enough.
Want - 1% - Only because self-parody is funny.
SMT Character
Chance - 0.75% - Having a crossover helps, but still third party.
Want - 40% - Mostly dependent on who gets in, but there are other third parties out there who I want more.
Karate Joe prediction - 9.75% - Well, he's the most important rhythm heaven character as of now, so go him.
Crono Prediction - 1.45% - Unless something special happens, I don't think anyone's giving him a decent chance.
Owain:
Chances: 0.4% He's a minor reoccuring character in a already blatantly over repped series, and isn't even the most likely out of the minor characters in his own series, so yeah, i doubt he'd have a chance.
Want: 0% I'd legitimately cry if he got in. Tears of pure, unadulterated, HATRED that is. How utterly terrible would it be for something so minor in a over repped series to get in before beloved fan favorites like K.Rool? It would be such a big "Screw you" from Sakurai to his fans and would be a signal that he doesn't actually care at all.
SMT character:
Chances: 2% Has a crossover with fire emblem, big woop. Not really big enough or has enough history with the big N to actually warrant a rep.
Want: 0% I don't care for it at all. And if for some insane reason it would be some crossover character that's technically half FE, half SMT It'd only become worse for me.
Predictions: Crono 4%
Karate Joe 10%
Sure Owain has a trophy in the 3DS version and is somewhat of a popular character from Fire Emblem Awakening, but the problem is we have basically reached the limit in terms of Fire Emblem characters on the Smash roster. Furthermore, the Fire Emblem reps that get in are the ones that are either a main character or someone who is very important to the story, and Owain is far from those qualities. He also lacks any sort of strong support for Smash Bros. I feel as though the 1% may be a bit too nice on my part, but that's because I personally think a video game character who has appeared on a Nintendo console automatically gives it some chance, even if it is a very small one, compared to considering a fighter who never appeared on a Nintendo console or is a fighter that doesn't have any video game roots.
Want: 2%
Owain was definitely an interesting character for me in Fire Emblem Awakening, but he is far from being my most wanted Fire Emblem character for DLC (if it were to ever happen again that is).
Shin Megami Tensei rep
Chance: 5%
SMT doesn't have very strong support when it comes to the Smash Ballot, not to mention the fact it is third party already hurts the possibility of adding a rep to the Smash roster. I feel as though the only factors that are really keeping it from reaching zero are the fact the games have appeared on Nintendo consoles and the soon to be released SMT x Fire Emblem crossover game.
Want: Abstain
I've never played the SMT games, so there's really not much else I can say regarding how much I want to see a rep included.
Predictions: Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven): 7.34% Crono: 1.5%
Nominations:
Jean Descole (Professor Layton): x2 Gallade (Pokemon): x3
Chance:0.2%
An enigmatic swordsman with a flair for theatrics, or so his bio goes in Awakening. Owain is famous for being over the top and generally hilarious to watch...enough for him to get nominated for laughs several times in the original RTC, anyway.
But other than a chuckle and an eye roll, he would serve no purpose in Smash. With multiple pure swordsmen he'd feel redundant next to, and with functionally no (serious) ballot support, it'd take a miracle on par with his mother's class skill for him to see more than the trophy he currently has.
Want: 10%
Let's put it this way: even if there weren't cries of over-representation for Fire Emblem, Owain would not be a good choice. As a straight up swordsman, he'd offer very little new to a roster with so many already. Even among Fire Emblem fans, there're more unique options in Anna, Micaiah, Tiki, and even new faces Corrin and Azura!
He would've been a pretty awesome Assist Trophy, though. I'll give him that.
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character
Chance: 4%
A (sort) of long-running series of RPGs by Atlus, based around fighting and occasionally recruiting demons. Over the years, Shin Megami Tensei games have picked up a reputation for exploring interesting moral questions, using various overarching religious themes, and being difficult, unforgiving, and hard to put down.
Even with that, though, and even though Atlus is a Sega subsidiary now, it...doesn't seem all that likely we'd see a playable character from there. As with so many other third party candidates, there aren't any from this series who've reached the lofty status of any third party character we've seen so far. Even recurring demon Jack Frost would have trouble measuring up, and all the extra work and all the money spent for licensing wouldn't keep whichever choice they made from sticking out like a sore thumb.
To say no less of how low ballot support for Atlus characters is in general.
Want: Abstain
As per usual. I actually was interested in SMTIV when it was on sale, but as usual, I had no money to spend. -_-
Karate Joe Prediction: 14.25%
With Rhythm Heaven still MIA and people skeptical on the Chorus Kids, something tells me he'll come close to them.
Crono Prediction: 4.50%
An icon of a bygone age, from one of the most beloved RPGs of all time...and with next to no support at the moment.
Owain chances: 0.06%
He's decently popular... and that's all he has going for him.
Oh wait, another Fire Emblem character want: 0%
Here's what I said about the idea of any more Fire Emblem character during Micaiah's day:
I'm really, really not excited at all about the possibility of any Fire Emblem newcomer; we're getting Roy, who I'm okay with because of his role into helping making FE a relatively big thing after his appearance in Melee, but anyone else beyond that would feel like it's really pushing it. The "over-representation" thing is not the problem (though I guess it counts for something), but really there are several factors that make me want to not see any Fire Emblem newcomer at this point:
> Fire Emblem characters usually lack star power by themselves, and star power is one of the most important things I'm looking for when considering characters to be playable in Super Smash Bros.;
> there are so many protagonists and characters who stand out from the average units, that it eventually makes none of them stand out;
> the Fire Emblem gameplay is honestly quite hard to translate to the Super Smash Bros. format and I think creating a new moveset to anyone just because they have a different kind of weapon or swordplay style doesn't mean it's worth it. Most of the general FE concepts such as skills (Marth having special moves reminiscent of Luna, Astra and Ambush/Vantage) and magic/multi-weapon moveset (Robin) already had been explored anyway.
Sure, there are unrepresented aspects of the Fire Emblem series which could deserve to be shown in Super Smash Bros. such as lances, axes, dragon transformations, or in the relevant case light magic and staffs but honestly those are not worth a new Smash character moveset imo. If more Fire Emblem characters are added to Smash Bros. to represent those concepts then I'd much rather see them added as Assist Trophies, the area where Fire Emblem is actually quite lacking, rather than underwhelming playable roster choices.
Playable Fire Emblem representation in Smash Bros. is starting to become stale and Owain would be no exception. By the way, I honestly kinda hope the next Smash will not have a Fire Emblem newcomer, for the reasons mentioned above. Put the most recent protagonist as an Assist Trophy next time, but not as playable please. I don't care if they have a unique weapon or moveset potential or anything, any more Fire Emblem character is not worth a brand new and complete moveset at this point.
Any Shin Megami Tensei character chances: 0.07%
The series seems too niche to be Smash caliber for third-party standards, and none of its characters seem to be iconic and influent enough to be considered as a Smash contender. I guess the SMTxFE game is kind of a saving grace, but that's not saying much.
Any Shin Megami Tensei character want: 0%
Third-party characters in Smash are a huge deal and SMT is definitely not playable material. Plus I have no connection to the series.
Karate Joe prediction: 18.49%
He's a pretty popular choice for a Rhythm Heaven character it seems.
Crono prediction: 3.29%
A Square Enix character who was very influent in the SNES era but didn't really stand the test of time as a gaming icon. It will be low, but how low it will be remains to be seen.
Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Tetrimino x5
Looks like Owain is doing extremely poorly today; I calculated and he's currently bellow 0.5% chances... oh wait a <1% chances character? Finally we did it! Whether he will do better than a Tetris block remains to be seen
Owain -
Chance and want: 0.75 I don't even need to recall what I said about Anna and Micaiah - After Roy, that's all I need from Fire Emblem at the moment. He is a funny comic relief character, I'll give him that.
Any Shin Megami Tensei character - Perhaps one of the more memorable would be Jack Frost - and I doubt they'll go for a random demon like Cú Chulainn. But the chances? 2%
And here's the weirdest thing about asking for any Shin Megami Tensei character. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most bizarre of all coincidences...! Masahiro Sakurai! 0_0
Want: 7%
I'd probably prefer a Persona character like Yu Narukami - given that Persona 3 and 4 were some of Atlus' most recognisable games in recent memory.
Karate Joe Prediction: 12%
Yeah, it's not happening. He's nowhere near popular enough to warrant an inclusion and most fans think the series is over represented.
Want: 75%
To be sure, I've made a Mii of him and the others, but to hear him actually screaming the name of his attacks would be awesome. Since it's not gonna happen though, I wanna see a mii costume in his design.
SMT
Chance: 20%
The series has a strong showing on Nintendo platforms and is even getting a crossover with a Nintendo IP, but they're extremely lacking in the popularity department.
Want: 62%
Either the main character from FE X SMT( the closest thing to Chrom we'd ever get) or Yu Narukami from Persona 4. Those two are the only two I'd care to see enter smash bros.
Well guys, looks like my time has finally come. Today marks the final regular day I contribute to Rate Their Chances: DLC Edition. Since speculation tapered off following the post-release period of Super Smash Bros. for Wii U/3DS, this game was a highlight of my recent forum activity. Every day, I would come back to give my assessment on the characters left to be in Smash and even cast a jest or debated here and there. But now it's time for me to move forward to commitments I've deemed more important. So, what better way to end it than on my first nomination-requested rating?
To all of those who liked my posts, quoted me, tagged me, debated against me, anticipated or lauded my opinions, or even just knowing I posted here, thank you for making my time here worthwhile. I know I'd be pretty corny playing this up like I were leaving Smashboards for good. After all, I'm just some soapbox speculator in the lot, and I'm willingly taking my leave. I'll save you the blubbery drivel. Let's give my final ratings a go ahead.
My schedule's beckoning the further I write up my ratings, so I'll drop back in and maintain my ground later today. I'm not even half done with them at this rate!
Oh, and I must say, I'm quite pleased that this thread participants remained mature regarding the SMT series on its own merits rather than taking hits against it for religious themes and symbology. I'll leave you with this juicy tidbit from Bayonetta day to help you decide on that:
Captain Hotcakes said:
"But Bayonetta comes from a series with heavy religious themes!"
Honestly, I'm rather pleased we managed to avoid this point for 4 pages. I feel we'll get harangued about this on Shin Megami Tensei day, so I'll address it now for your quoting convenience.
Nintendo is an areliguous company. They want to create experiences anyone of any age and background will enjoy. Ironically, rejecting any religious themes or images would actually make a statement that they want to align with a particular religion that denounces those elements.
Speaking for Bayonetta, the game uses Biblical mythology as a thematic vehicle and a motif for the series' themes. You even kill angels and demons in gruesomely blasphemous ways.
Let's say that we'll include a couple of these characters through Trophies. Even using the tamest designs for the Hierarchy of Laguna, the Legemegton, and Infernal demons, any religious cords shouldn't be struck because none of the material is presenting itself in an offensive manner. If anything, you'd have to have extremely prude religious sensibilities to be offended by the mere sight of a demon, skulls, symbols of death and darkness, etc. And that really can't be helped for a game with the popularity and international appeal of Smash.
On that note, Pit espouses the Biblical characteristics of an angel despite being from a Hellenic setting. There's many references to demons through the Legend of Zelda, Fire Emblem, etc. Demon King Malladius, Demon King Azordius, etc., are already featured as Trophies with demonic influences in their designs.
By virtue of being a Japanese company, Nintendo comes from a culture that's predominantly secular. The Japanese understanding of demons veers closer to folklore than the eschatological, philosophical conception Western society is accustomed too. As a whole, they wouldn't limit themselves to one belief system when referencing other religions, mythos, etc., than other cultures would because they think its true. If it's really that much of a concern to them, they can always cut religious content under regional differences.
Owain Chance: 1.2%
Abstain from explanation. I'll give the next Fire Emblem character rating just 1.2%.
Still out of town and too busy to write up something longer...
Want: 6%
Abstain from explanation.
SMT Character Chance: 0.4%
Abstain from explanation.
Chance
1% - Fan favorite Awakening character with an annoying fanbase that can't really help him in the ballot. Plus, he can easily be overshadowed by the Fates protagonists even though fan had enough of Awakening.
Want
0% - No, just no. I'd rather have PLENTY of Fire Emblem characters before this blonde clown. Never liked his character or saw the appeal in him either.
SMT character
Chance
10% - There's little to no demand and Shin Megami Tensei has little of a following on Nintendo platforms. Sure there's the upcoming crossover, but even that has a broken base due to dissatisfied Megaten elitists and Fire Emblem purists. Jack Frost would be cool though.
Want
60% - Demi Fiend, Flynn the Samurai? Jack Frost-ho? Teddie? Yu Narukami? Gimmie, gimmie, gimmie!
Predictions: Karate Joe - 11%, Predictions: Crono - 6%
By the way, @colder_than_ice
- There're still some characters coming up that are pretty big figures. It'd probably be a good idea to give them their own night when their time comes, since more people will have something to write about them.
Oh glad I didn't miss this day cause SMT day is here!
Owain
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%
I am not interested in another FE character no matter how much I love the series. 5 characters including Roy is already pushing it a lot.
SMT: Character
Chance: 15%
This might be a higher chance than it probably is but since Nintendo actually took the effort to get SMT x FE (which doesn't look like a SMT x FE) signed up increasing the series chances a lot. Plus Nintendo consoles have become a home for SMT games with the spinoff Devil Survivor Series, the main SMT IV game, SMT: Strange Journey and so on.
The series might have religious symbology but that can easily be dealt with.
Want: 90%
SMT has slowly become one of my favourite RPG games and Atlus, one of my favourite developers. The game has tons of characters from choose from that can have a diverse moveset of either summoning demons, casting the various spells from the SMT series, normal physical attacks and so on. There are tons of games to derive moves from.
My favourite SMT game in fact is a spin off, Devil Survivor and would love to see Abel as a character. Although it is more likely that someone more iconic like Jack Frost, who is also used as the icon for Atlus itself, would be taken instead. He will also have tons of ice moves possible, even if he can't use them in the SMT games (due to his low level).
Owain? More like No Wayn
Chance: 0%
No explanation needed
Want: 0%
Owain was one of my favorite characters in Awakening, but there's already enough Fire Emblem crap in Smash
SMT Character
Chance: 0%
Want: 1%
Only if it's that Jack Frost thing
Karate Joe Prediction: 19.55%
Crony Prediction: 6%
Fire Emblem's resident chuunibyou, Owain:
Chance: 0.01%
Everything that I think needs to be said already has been.
Want: 0%
Didn't like him in Awakening,
Don't like what I've seen of him in Fates,
And I definitely wouldn't like him in Smash.
You'd think that I'd have something that I think is clever for the only thing I've been nominating, but you'd be wrong: Shin Megami Tensei Rep:
Chance: 4%
"Shin Megami Tensei Rep" is pretty vague, so there's quite a bit to consider. Kinda. I'll try to abbreviate most of it.
For starters, Shin Megami Tensei is the only third party, long running RPG series with much of an international presence left on Nintendo systems that I can immediately think of (Final Fantasy is very much more Sony now, and Dragon Quest hasn't been leaving Japan often), so that's a plus if Sakurai and co. wanted to do some sort of RPG rep. SMT was also (depending on who you ask) important to the RPG genre for being one of the first major cyberpunk/not-fantasy RPGs, and for also creating the capture/train/transform monsters mechanic that was popularized in the Pokemon series. SMT isn't anecdotal by a long shot, but it's still not the biggest name in RPGs.
The biggest counterargument is the demand for it. In addition to the fact that the fanbase for Shin Megami Tensei is on the smaller side, there are so many possible reps (I've counted 29 with the criteria "Main Character of a game on a Nintendo system") the fanbase would be split on who they are submitting ballots for. Even though realistically people would be submitting ballots for around 10-ish characters (Megami Tensei 1 and 2, SMT 1, 2 and 4, Persona 3 and 4 (Persona Q makes them 'legitimate'), Devil Survivor 1 and 2, and I've seen a decent amount of support for Jack Frost, ATLUS's mascot and the star of the first localized MegaTen game, Jack Bros), and of those 7 would be pretty much identical in what they could do, that's still separating the already small fanbase to the point where support for any individual character would be negligible.
However, that's operating under the assumption that ballots for any individual character will be considered in a vacuum. If a bunch of characters from a given series are requested, it'll probably show that there is demand for that series. Still not much of a plus for a SMT rep, but it's there.
Regarding uniqueness and playstyle of the previously mentioned 'likely' reps, they could be split into the groups 'Demon Summoner', 'Persona User', and 'Jack Frost'.
'Demon Summoners' would consist of reps from Megami Tensei, SMT, and Devil Survivor, and would have their gimmick be the ability to summon demons to fight alongside them, using magic and physical attacks. How that works in execution could vary; they could play like Rosalina and Luma (two simultaneously controlled characters), or like Peacock from Skullgirls (summonable props), or something else that I haven't seen been done before. In terms of regular attacks, all of the characters in this group who have a specified weapon use a sword, so that would probably be what they would use. Some also have access to guns, so it could expand their moveset into something more ranged. In terms of aesthetics, these characters were designed to be realistic, so their 'photorealistic' adolescent look wouldn't exactly mesh with Smash 4's more cartoony look. However, that also means that they wouldn't look all that similar to anyone else in Smash.
'Persona User' would consist of the protagonists from Persona 3 and 4. Their main gimmick would be summoning a Persona, which, for the purposes of gameplay, is pretty much just a demon that doesn't act independently from nor travel far from the summoner. That would make them more limited in terms of what they can do compared to the Demon Summoners group, but they're an option nonetheless. They use swords too, but no actual guns. They're a bit more anime-y than the Demon Summoner group, so they'd visually fit right in alongside the likes of the Fire Emblem and Xenoblade reps.
Jack Frost is a demon in the series, and would be more along the lines of a straight up magic user like Ness and Lucas. It's no surprise that his specialty is Ice magic, which I'll note that nobody else currently in Smash has (sorry Ice Climbers). To expand upon his moveset, if needed, almost any other spell in the game can be tacked on due to the more recent rules on skill inheritance in fusion. Physical attacks (tilts and if needed, smashes) have much more of a 'feral' feel to them, since, even though Jack Frost is . Final smashes could include summoning a bunch of demons (a Jack Frost does gain this ability in Devil Survivor 1) that wreak havoc across the stage, casting Cold World (a strong ice attack in the games with a chance of KO, could function like Critical Hit), or a temporary form as Frost Ace or Black Frost (two related demons in the series, would work like Wario-Man/Mega-Evolution). I'd say Jack Frost would visually fit in the most in Smash 4, given his very cartoon-y appearance.
All are unique enough to stand out in Smash as individuals, but none would look particularly out of place.
I'll add that I don't really think that SMTxFE affects it's chances significantly; if it did it would have been a preballot rep.
If the entire player base of SMT and its spinoffs were to submit a ballot for the same character, I'd give the concept of a SMT rep a 12%. That's never happening, though, so 4%.
Want: 100% I love MegaTen and I love disappointment so it's no wonder that a MegaTen rep would be my first pick for DLC! Sarcasm aside, the Megami Tensei series is probably my favorite RPG series and I'd like to see it get recognition for what it's done for the genre. Personally, I'd want Jack Frost, but I'd be satisfied with pretty much anything from the franchise.
I'd say more, but this post is long enough as it is.
I'll skip out on nominations and predictions this time, since I won't have much time in the foreseeable future to partake in this thread.
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