Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[WeirdChillFever]

Miis were highly requested actually.

But not Mii Fighters.

1. Even with a lot of balance, it's still pretty inconceivable (and could be VERY hard to implement, too). Plus, you're screwing up the defensive tactics just to balance the offensive tactics (something that shouldn't even be thought about).
2. ... No, I meant that she's still TOO NEW! Look at Melee, the only character we've gotten that didn't exist at the time the system and game were created was Roy, but he was put in to promote his first "canon" appearance and there wasn't any reference to GameCube games. Same with Brawl, the only things that were considered but that didn't exist before the gaming system (the Wii) was complete were the Mii Fighters, yet they were dropped. So far, the only thing that can reference the gaming system's games are OSTs (easy to implement) and stages (introduced here in Smash 4)! We have to wait AT LEAST A LITTLE before any Wii U character gets in as playable or even an assist (Dark Samus wasn't even an AT in Brawl)!
3. ... And THAT puts a good hole in the idea of the moveset alone. The only thing Monita can use to attack directly is her only hand (and arm), but do you think there would be enough animations or even poses for its attacks (jabs, finishers, smashes and the like)? There should be at least about as much non-projectile non-prop moves as Mega Man got!

1. I think Rosalina and Luma was made this way too.
2. Nintendo Land is three years old already, wait a year and Monita is actually four years old. That's just as old as Robin and Greninja. I know the Wii U seems to be pretty new, but it's not that brand new.
3. That hand could still wield Takamaru Mii's Sword, Luigi Mii's Flashlight, Animal Crossing Guard's Fork and Hammer Pikmin.

Let's see what Mega Man has:
Non-Projectiles:
-Down Tilt
-Up Tilt
-Dash Attack

-Forward Air
-Back Air

-Up Smash
-Down Smash

-Grab

That's 8 non-projectile stuff

Moves that Monita could do herself:

Jab: Monitta swipes with Takamaru's sword
Down Tilt: Monita uses a Hammer Pikmin
Up Tilt: Monita holds up the Animal Crossing fork

Neutral Air: Monita handles the Luigi's Mansion Flashlight
Up Air: A overhead spin attack from Zelda

Up Smash: Monita transforms in the Nintendo Land Tower
Forward Smash: Monita rides a Yoshi Cart
(Down Smash: Monita rides a Blue Falcon)

Grab: Monita grabs the opponent.

(Side Special: Monita rides the attraction train.)

That's more "non-gimmick" stuff as Mega Man.

 

[Erureido]

Chance: 20%

If Sakurai is looking for a character that really represents the WiiU, Monita is the one. Her game, Nintendo Land, was a WiiU launch title that takes the best use of the Gamepad, allowing players to learn how they can use the controller in different ways. She does have some moveset potential too, considering she can use props from all the different mini games in Nintendo Land. Other than that, I just don't see her chances being that high compared to other characters that have been requested in the past, mainly due to a lack of support. Of course, considering she is a true "Nintendo rep" similar to Game & Watch, ROB, and Duck Hunt, there's still that chance she could join the roster despite the odds.

Want: 30%

While I can imagine her having a unique and interesting moveset, she's simply not one of the characters I want to see join the roster the most. Maybe I'll be more open to her inclusion in Smash 5 considering she has potential to join the roster in that game too, but we'll see.

Nominations:

Jean Descole (Professor Layton): x3
Gallade (Pokemon): x2

 

[Extremmefan]

But not Mii Fighters.



1. I think Rosalina and Luma was made this way too.
2. Nintendo Land is three years old already, wait a year and Monita is actually four years old. That's just as old as Robin and Greninja. I know the Wii U seems to be pretty new, but it's not that brand new.
3. That hand could still wield Takamaru Mii's Sword, Luigi Mii's Flashlight, Animal Crossing Guard's Fork and Hammer Pikmin.

Let's see what Mega Man has:
Non-Projectiles:
-Down Tilt
-Up Tilt
-Dash Attack

-Forward Air
-Back Air

-Up Smash
-Down Smash

-Grab

That's 8 non-projectile stuff

Moves that Monita could do herself:

Jab: Monitta swipes with Takamaru's sword
Down Tilt: Monita uses a Hammer Pikmin
Up Tilt: Monita holds up the Animal Crossing fork

Neutral Air: Monita handles the Luigi's Mansion Flashlight
Up Air: A overhead spin attack from Zelda

Up Smash: Monita transforms in the Nintendo Land Tower
Forward Smash: Monita rides a Yoshi Cart
(Down Smash: Monita rides a Blue Falcon)

Grab: Monita grabs the opponent.

(Side Special: Monita rides the attraction train.)

That's more "non-gimmick" stuff as Mega Man.

3. Agree, but that's only counting items. If a criteria was "no character can spawn items", what would Monita have? Nothing much.
2. Still, one year less than Robin or Greninja... the two newest characters in the base game... give Monita one more year, and we'll be done.
1. The Luma is half a character, so don't count it.

 

[Double0Groove]

But not Mii Fighters.

Wha... What's the difference... (ತ ൧͑ ತ)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Wha... What's the difference... (ತ ൧͑ ತ)

Not much, just that people didn't expect Miis to come in three variants with a sword, arm cannon and Street Fighter kicks.

quote="Extremmefan, post: 19295718, member: 301373"]3. Agree, but that's only counting items. If a criteria was "no character can spawn items", what would Monita have? Nothing much.
2. Still, one year less than Robin or Greninja... the two newest characters in the base game... give Monita one more year, and we'll be done.
1. The Luma is half a character, so don't count it.[/quote]

3. What if a criteria was: "No characters?" What would Smash Bros. have? Nothing much.
Good thing it's not a criteria and you just pulled it out of your ass.

2. Awakening released in 2012 in Japan, so Robin is as old as Monita. Same with Dark Pit I guess.
But okay, it can wait a year, sure.

1. Doesn't mean Rosalina and Luma was hard to make though.
The argument was about being hard to make and half character or not, Rosalina and Luma were hard to make.
Same with Olimar.

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Monita (in spanish is like saying "Little monkey"

)
Chances: 12% at least she is a nintendo original character from this gen...
Want: 10% um... maybe as the "WTF? character" for the next Smash (Like )

You Are Mach Rider
Prediction: 25% Retro and Cool

Noms
Bub/Bob x5

 

[StormC]

Gonna edit this later:

Chance: 10%
Want: 15%

Mach Rider: 15%
Beast Ganon 5x

 

[Extremmefan]

Not much, just that people didn't expect Miis to come in three variants with a sword, arm cannon and Street Fighter kicks.

quote="Extremmefan, post: 19295718, member: 301373"]3. Agree, but that's only counting items. If a criteria was "no character can spawn items", what would Monita have? Nothing much.
2. Still, one year less than Robin or Greninja... the two newest characters in the base game... give Monita one more year, and we'll be done.
1. The Luma is half a character, so don't count it.

3. What if a criteria was: "No characters?" What would Smash Bros. have? Nothing much.
Good thing it's not a criteria and you just pulled it out of your ***.

2. Awakening released in 2012 in Japan, so Robin is as old as Monita. Same with Dark Pit I guess.
But okay, it can wait a year, sure.

1. Doesn't mean Rosalina and Luma was hard to make though.
The argument was about being hard to make and half character or not, Rosalina and Luma were hard to make.
Same with Olimar.[/quote]
1. The criteria was actually made from my observation of the history of Smash games. I'm pretty sure the closest to "spawning items" are when the Villager calls his "whatever that thing is" rocket (which isn't that hard, because it's only ONE move that use it), and when Robin's magic books and Levin Swords reappears out of nowhere (which isn't that hard either, considering they're not that different when separated from Robin's uses of said weapons).
2. *cough*3DS*cough*
3. The Luma is somehow connected to Rosalina, repeating most moves she does (kind of similar to Ice Climbers, but easier to code, and in a different way). At least there's only ONE Luma as a "connected to character" thing, and not MULTIPLE PROPS THAT ACT DIFFERENTLY AND LOOKS DIFFERENTLY!

Also, how else could they add Miis? After all, these three were obvious choices for the kind of character (a close-combat fighter, another who is good when he/she is far AND when he/she is close, and one that has an advantage when he/she is far enough from his opponent? ... That's quite logical, considering the first one and the third one compensate for each other).

 

[WeirdChillFever]

3. What if a criteria was: "No characters?" What would Smash Bros. have? Nothing much.
Good thing it's not a criteria and you just pulled it out of your ***.

2. Awakening released in 2012 in Japan, so Robin is as old as Monita. Same with Dark Pit I guess.
But okay, it can wait a year, sure.

1. Doesn't mean Rosalina and Luma was hard to make though.
The argument was about being hard to make and half character or not, Rosalina and Luma were hard to make.
Same with Olimar.

1. The criteria was actually made from my observation of the history of Smash games. I'm pretty sure the closest to "spawning items" are when the Villager calls his "whatever that thing is" rocket (which isn't that hard, because it's only ONE move that use it), and when Robin's magic books and Levin Swords reappears out of nowhere (which isn't that hard either, considering they're not that different when separated from Robin's uses of said weapons).
2. *cough*3DS*cough*
3. The Luma is somehow connected to Rosalina, repeating most moves she does (kind of similar to Ice Climbers, but easier to code, and in a different way). At least there's only ONE Luma as a "connected to character" thing, and not MULTIPLE PROPS THAT ACT DIFFERENTLY AND LOOKS DIFFERENTLY!

Also, how else could they add Miis? After all, these three were obvious choices for the kind of character (a close-combat fighter, another who is good when he/she is far AND when he/she is close, and one that has an advantage when he/she is far enough from his opponent? ... That's quite logical, considering the first one and the third one compensate for each other).[/quote]

1. Did I make that giant list for nothing?
2. That has nothing to do with how recent a character is. Years are years and these don't change with a different console
3. Every move looks different and acts different. Monita's just have more flair.
They didn't have trouble animating Villager and Bowser Jr.

4. With moves they actually used in the Mii games but okay.

 

[Extremmefan]

1. The criteria was actually made from my observation of the history of Smash games. I'm pretty sure the closest to "spawning items" are when the Villager calls his "whatever that thing is" rocket (which isn't that hard, because it's only ONE move that use it), and when Robin's magic books and Levin Swords reappears out of nowhere (which isn't that hard either, considering they're not that different when separated from Robin's uses of said weapons).
2. *cough*3DS*cough*
3. The Luma is somehow connected to Rosalina, repeating most moves she does (kind of similar to Ice Climbers, but easier to code, and in a different way). At least there's only ONE Luma as a "connected to character" thing, and not MULTIPLE PROPS THAT ACT DIFFERENTLY AND LOOKS DIFFERENTLY!

Also, how else could they add Miis? After all, these three were obvious choices for the kind of character (a close-combat fighter, another who is good when he/she is far AND when he/she is close, and one that has an advantage when he/she is far enough from his opponent? ... That's quite logical, considering the first one and the third one compensate for each other).

1. Did I make that giant list for nothing?
2. That has nothing to do with how recent a character is. Years are years and these don't change with a different console
3. Every move looks different and acts different. Monita's just have more flair.
They didn't have trouble animating Villager and Bowser Jr.

4. With moves they actually used in the Mii games but okay.[/quote]
1. Yes you did it FOR NOTHING! All of these are either explained in-game or comes from something that is typical of the series. Popping out attraction props out of nowhere isn't explained, and hasn't been shown in Nintendo Land (or explained officialy).
2. The most recent characters we have are from the 3DS, I don't see how the devs would say "hey look! Let's add a Wii U character just because <insert any of WeirdChillFever's arguments here>!".
3. Villager AT LEAST MOVES! Bowser Jr can also go out of his Koopa-Clown Car. Also, these aren't props or "things that are connected to a character to the point of attacking when said character attacks", THEY'RE THE SAID CHARACTERS!

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

@ShinyRegice @Erimir: Thanks for your constructive input. It actually makes me upset that you two have rendered my rating scale null and void. But I have no good reason to bear a grudge to either of you. Just shows I'm willing to change how I think about statistics.

My mathematics skills are actually quite impaired, which is why I would be inclined to think about this closer to something like a review score out of 100, where every range of 10 is a different degree of unlikely <-> likely.

That Pokémon analogy turns everything I've ever known about how I've seen stat chances work in games and reverses them. If we have a stat titled "Accuracy", going by the definition of that word (the condition or quality of being true, correct, or exact; freedom from error or defect; precision or exactness; correctness.), this would indicate that this affects the rate at which a move is guaranteed to hit. Logically, the greater the # for Accuary, the more likely it is the move will connect. Going by your example, 30 < 70. Therefore, the 30 would be considered "highly" unlikely, giving a greater chance my move will miss.

The way I've understood it until this point, #s on the >50% end of the spectrum fare worse than <50% numbers, speaking in whole numbers out of 100 (and yes, percents ≠ whole numbers. But everyone I see seems to be thinking of the scores as whole numbers.)

Also, just though I'd clarify that I never took RNG into account when it came to estimating a character's chances of getting in Smash. Sakurai has disclosed just about everything we know about how the process works and absolutely no mathematics are involved there.

Erimir, you were kind enough to give me a better number scale. As soon as I understand what you guys are trying to explain, all I'd have to do is recalibrate my entire vote history, which should take me no more than a day. If I were to this, would you have some sort of formula to convert the current scores to their most accurate equivalent with this new logic or would I roughly conjecture what their current score already is equal to with this new logic? Chance scores would be the ones to correspond closer to this logic, as Want scores would adopt the same scale, but are subjective and not bound by one shot.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Monita
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Mach Rider Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Jibanyan x4
Rerate Inkling x1

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Monita

chance: 0.1%
I think it's like saying the director from WiiMusic becomes a fighter.

want: 0%
I was a supporter of the Miis in Smash. When they were not announced yet, I had my vision of how Miis should have been in Smash, and they would have had a moveset based on the Wii- games, and other Mii titles like Pilotwings, Tomodachi Life and Nintendoland.
They become just random avatars with generic moves, and well, I got disappointed, but still, I think the Miis are enough to represent those titles, the casual franchises of Nintendo. It's already too much that we also have WiiFit Trainer in the roster.
But if I think about it, there is a thing that I would like to see if Monita becomes a playable character: summon that toy version of Ridley as final smash

Mach Rider prediction: 23%

nominate:
Karate Joe x5

 

[Leafeon523]

Monita:
Chance: 2%
We already have the main character(s) from Nintendoland in the game. A floating tutorial is hardly a character.

Want: 10%
There are worse choices, and I'm curious as to what the moveset would be. But it's still a floating tutorial, and it would be a complete letdown to see her in.

Predicting Mach Rider at 14%
Nominating 6+dlc characters x5

Also, no need to judge other people's rating scales. If we all rated with the same scale this game would not be interesting at all.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Monita:

Chances: 10%
Want: 15%

-Nominations: New Kirby stage from the newer Kirby games X5

 

[Smasher 101]

Monita's chances: 10%

Nintendo Land did well, and they could see her as an interesting surprise character choice.

Want: 10%

I generally like to see new franchises get representation, but I don't find Monita to be that great of a choice. I'd rather her be an assist, if anything.

Mach Rider prediction: 13.49%

One of the more notable retros.

Nominations: Karate Joe x5

 

[4theRECORD]

Monita

Chance 5%
Want 1%

Mach Rider predictions: 18%

nominations: Slime (Dragon Quest) x5

 

[Sari]

Monita

Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

She's relatively unknown and there are far better characters to choose from. I could probably see her as an assist trophy but that's about it.

Mach Rider Prediction: 16.72%

Nomination: Mona (WarioWare) x5

 

[FancySmash]

Monita - "Welcome to Super Smash Bros. In this attraction, you play as a Nintendo All-star fighting various other Nintendo All-stars.

Chance: 5% - Monita doesn't seem all that likely to me. She appeared with the Wii U's launc h in Nintendo Land, but doesn't have any abilities that would make her an ideal playable character. All Nintendo Land's attractions are based on other games, which the characters those games can already represent themselves. Thus, having Monita represent these attractions in her move set seems redundant.

Want: 10% - Believe it or not, I actually liked Nintendo Land better than Wii Sports. Yes, both games were good, but I enjoyed the references to Nintendo's other series. However, I still don't think there is much for Monita that would benefit the roster if she was there. Also, she has no actual character, which doesn't help her in want.

Predictions: Mach Rider: Hmm, another constant vehicle character? Bowser Jr. already fills that category. How about... 18%

Nominations:
Meowth X3
Chibi-Robo X2

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Boy, with 9-Volt yesterday, it;s going to be a doozie knocking down these kinds of characters.

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/26/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Ryu - 97.7%
1: Roy - 97.7%
2: Wolf - 97.5%
3: Professor Layton - 90%
4: Rayman - 60%
5: Snake - 55%
6: Inkling - 50%
7: Sceptile - 45%
7: Krystal - 45%
8: Paper Mario: 44.5%
9: Dixie Kong - 43%
10: Wonder Red - 40%
11: Impa - 40.5%
12: Simon Belmont - 35%
13: Cross - 35.7%
14: Elma - 35.3%
15: Ice Climbers - 30%
15: Captain Toad - 30%
16: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
17: Magolor - 25%
18: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
19: Spyro - 25.3%
20: Ivysaur - 23.7%
21: Squirtle - 22.5%
22: Quote - 21.5%
23: Phoenix Wright - 20%
23: Shovel Knight - 20%
24: Shantae - 20.5%
25: Tetra - 20.3%
26: 9-Volt - 10%
26: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
27: Lip - 10.5%
28: Geno - 7%
29: KOS-MOS - 5%
29: Ray - 5%
29: Pichu - 5%
30: Daisy - 5.7%
31: Ridley - 5.5%
32: Monita - 3%
-: Mach Rider - ?.?%

Character Want Ratings

1: Professor Layton - 100%
1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Magolor - 85.5%
7: Ice Climbers - 80%
8: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
9: Ryu - 60%
9: Paper Mario: 60%
10: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
11: Phoenix Wright - 55%
12: Ridley - 50%
13: Inkling - 30%
14: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
15: Rayman - 25%
15: Cross - 25.7%
16: Elma - 23%
16: Quote - 23%
17: Krystal - 20%
17: Dixie Kong - 20%
18: Tetra - 20.5%
19: Squirtle - 10.7%
19: Ivysaur - 10.7%
20: Geno - 10.5%
20: Roy - 10.5%
21: Spyro - 7%
22: Lip - 5.7%
23: Captain Toad - 5.5%
24: Ray - 4.5%
25: KOS-MOS - 3%
26: 9-Volt - 3.5%
27: Monita - 1%
27: Pichu - 1%
27: Daisy - 1%
-: Mach Rider - ?.?%

Concept Chance Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 90.5%
2: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%
4: DLC Music Packs - 50.5%
5: Rhythm Heaven Character - 45%

Concept Want Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 100%
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: DLC Music Packs - 65%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%
4: Rhythm Heaven Character - 40.3%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac
Bandana Dee

Abtsains (Indifference)

Ninten

RATINGS

Monita

Chance - 3%: Looks like Monita couldn't have beckoned for a worse time to rally her support (or lack thereof). We already know how steep the Ballot is, and the myriads of characters who have fathoms worth of demand over her isn't even worth delineating due to its sheer volume. She's just another one-off tribute joke "casual rep."

Many here have pitched this point forth and I'll pitch it back again. If Sakurai and his designers wanted Monita so badly, she would've had it much easier getting into the initial roster due to her peculiarity and oddball status. She's not particularly memorable to stand out and the Smash fanbase only has a handful of these one-off party game host characters to rally behind that we get into another Broken Base predicament.

Besides, Monita isn't even remotely as entertaining as the more obscure characters. Mr. Game & Watch and R.O.B. have at least maintained darkhorse consistency through cameos and other nods years after their exposure. And in the case of R.O.B. & Duck Hunt, piss-off noterieity that inverted into tongue-and-cheek ridiculousity that made them memorable and exciting to play as (maybe that could bound in her favorite if Nintendo pushes her to Scrappy proportions). Wii Fit Trainer presents a very unique niche in Nintendo's game history and with yoga and health theming begin moveset potential no other character offered. She the type of character that's so under-the-radar that just about everybody was struck off their heels when she was exposed to the world at E3 2013. What about Monita? An impersonable, bland emcee hailing from a stagnant minigame collection that might've just came too early to even be recognized in Smash Wii U.

Oh, and by the way, Nintendo Land is not the top-selling Wii U title anymore. It remains 3rd overall worldwide. I also suspect that the Wii U Deluxe bundle had a huge role to play with the bloat that sales total gets, as it was bundled with the system as a convenient Wii Sports-esque intro title. Except it's impact can't even be fit under sensational. I'm sure there are regular Wii U owners who paid money to get Nintendo Land too. I'm intrigued about the divide between bundles in correlation to Nintendo Land's sales. But if there's anything to take from this, it's that most people weren't compelled to buy the game because of anything she did rather than her just happening to be there.

Want - 1%: Please refer to my 9-Volt Want score from the previous day to see the bulk of my thoughts on composite tribute characters in crossovers. Because I'm not going to waste breath when much of this is brought up with Monita's potential.

Just imagining Monita, there isn't enough she does that would make her particularly exciting to realize. I read that moveset in her support thread, only to be disappointed. She has so little to work with, that her supporters can only whittle her down to summon patchwork & papercraft effigies for every one of her attacks. It gets even worse when almost all of those objects are either characters or present in character movesets. At least 9-Volt has things actual Nintendo fans would get!

If this wasn't bad enough, imagine what a buzzkill the Ballot would produce if month's worth of hype and voting resulted to this washed-up character that would only make a morsel of fans satisfied. She would unanimously piss the fanbase off. Smash 4 will remained addled with a awkward draft for perpetuity, realizing that the game took it's final kick-off putting a ****ing Finder icon with an extend-o-arm alongside the likes of Mario, Samus, and Captain Falcon.

Welp, guess you ought to sort out the BSoD I gave you from realizing the truth, Monita. Wonder what else you can do. Well, perhaps you could greet & guide park visitors to the eventual Nintendo park at Universal?

PREDICTION

Mach Rider

Chance - 12.37%
Want - 5.436%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x1

 

[a smart guy]

Hope I'm not too late
Monita:
Chance: 5% Only saving grace is sales data.
Want: 5% No thanks.

Prediction: 8.5%
Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Delzethin]

You know...if I wanted someone annoying me constantly and telling me things I already knew, I'd play Zelda!

-♪-

Monita

Chance: 7%
Interestingly enough, I've actually seen Monita mentioned before. Granted, it was from being thrown into a couple fake leaks, but it does mean at least some part of the fanbase knows she exists. There've been a few (heated) arguments over her moveset potential or even if she could fight at all. Some have involved some logical reaches, but overall it seems like she'd be on the fence as far as having a workable moveset goes. It'd depend on whether the developers felt like taking creative liberties. And it's not like Nintendo fans outside of Smash wouldn't recognize her, especially everyone who had Nintendo Land bundled with their Wii U.

However...those factors don't help Monita enough now. While she might've worked as a surprise "wtf" character on the initial roster (had the Wii Fit Trainer not already done that, anyway), surprise characters are a much harder sell for DLC. With the lukewarm-at-best reception she has now, saying it'd be difficult to sell the fans on the idea of purchasing her is an understatement. Another wrench in the situation is her miniscule ballot support, leaving her with next to no chance of getting in via nomination. The only real chance she has is by being a character the developers decide to add on their own...and with how hard of a sell she'd be, that doesn't seem likely either!

Too many problems, not enough going for her to overcome them. A situation that's turned up for a lot of characters in here lately.

Want: 12%
Would I be mildly interested if she had some off-the-wall moveset based on Nintendo Land's attractions? Maybe. Overall, though, she'd feel unnecessary and...kind of shoehorned in. Why would we need a character from Nintendo Land if every character that got a ride in Nintendo Land is already in Smash, and almost all of them playable?


Mach Rider Prediction: 14.25%
A character Sakurai's been fond of for a long time...and I can see that influencing his ratings. Take a drink every time you see the words "Sakurai bias" tonight!

...Uh...if you're of legal age, anyway. >_>


Nominations:
Concept: Alpha-Form Stages x5

Not long now.

 

[Kenith]

Monita:
Chance: 5%? I don't really see that much demand for her and she's a pretty "out-there" character choice. Not to mention Nintendo Land isn't that huge of a game.

Want: Abstain. I know too little of Nintendo Land to know what she could offer.

-----
Nominations:
Jill Valentine x2
Pirate Ship x3
(Is nominating stages okay?)

 

[sogeki]

Question: Why don't we get extra noms for predicting the want score? @ colder_than_ice

 

[colder_than_ice]

Monita
Chance: 1% - I really don't feel she has a chance. Sure we got crazy unexpected characters in the past like Game & Watch, Rob, Duck Hunt, and Wii Fit Trainer among others but those characters were all on the disc and no one had to go out of their way to pay extra money for them. DLC characters are at a huge disadvantage as Nintendo actually has to sell them to us individually and these outlandish characters are not very marketable on their own. They make far more sense when they come with the full game.

Want: 20% - Mostly just because I'm curious about what kind of move set she'll have with that unique build.

Mach Rider prediction: 10%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Monita
10% Chance
50% Want
Nintendo Land seems like it could have a character. However, I feel a Nintendo Land stage alone is far more likely. Monita might have a cool moveset, but I don't play Nintendo Land enough with my friends to see what it could be.

Mach Rider
12.12% Chance

Nominating Concept: Ms Pac Man Alt x 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

MONITA
CHANCE: 8.68%
WANT: 20.04%​

Well she did way better than I thought she would. Next up we rating Mach Rider and predicting what score Toon Zelda will get tomorrow.

@ sogeki If Smasher 101 is up to the challenge than I'd be more than happy allow extra noms for predicting a want score.
@ TCT~Phantom I got your rating in just on time.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Mach Rider Chance:
10%
Mach Rider, a one-time retro character whose game has first released internationally unlike Takamaru, which gives him a slight better edge over most retro characters. He does have interesting enough characteristics with his motorcycle and gun to make for a moveset. He also has the benefit of him being Sakurai's most wanted when it comes to developing characters. It isn't saying much though as he neither has the benefit of getting a new game like Little Mac though. (Which would benefit his chances greatly)

That's the only time where I think he could consider Mach Rider as Sakurai is moreso focusing on characters who have upcoming/recently released games or if by a rare case wants to pick a NES representative again. Otherwise I don't really see him having much of a shot at all.

Mach Rider Want:
35% His theme is pretty awesome, though the game itself is pretty bad in terms of control, can't say I support really.

Toon Zelda Prediction:
21.424% Oh good, not Young Link yet, I got time to start my analysis soon.

Nominations:
x5 Jibanyan

 

[TCT~Phantom]

@ colder_than_ice thank you

Mach Rider
20% Chance
Mach Rider seems like a cool idea for a retro. The only thing stopping her (or was it Excitebiker?, idea still works) was that Sakurai could not think of how to make them jump. Given that now he has made a moveset for other characters with huge boundaries, Mach Rider could make it in. Helping her over Excitebiker would also be the fact she has more moveset potential with the guns she has. Stuff could be made up as well.
100% Want
This actually would be amazing. A fighter on a bike would be badass. A fighter on a motorcycle with guns is even more badass. The fact that it is a retro character helps more. Cool moveset, Cool Character, Cool Idea.

Toon Zelda 15.15%
I have a hunch she might get some high ratings.
Nominating Ms Pac Man Alt x 5

 

[JBRPG]

Mach Rider:

Chance:
15%

Want:
10%

Prediction:

Toon Zelda: 18%

Nomination: Medusa x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Eh, I'm unsure about allowing want score predictions to be honest, but if a lot of people want that I guess I can do it.

For now, @ sogeki wins the extra nominations today.

 

[Deleted member]

I rather not do want score predictions. I think that they are a bit more... unpredictable.

The Directory has been updated.

Mach Rider
Chance: 5%
I think that he has a solid chance as a retro, but I am very doubtful on retros.
The biggest one of all, Takamaru, is an Assist Trophy.
Retros in general aren't highly demanded and some are kinda forgotten, making them harder to sell as DLC.
Mach Rider does have some recognition and I suppose that he has some support.
It's just a more doubtful case with retros as they are more risky to sell as DLC.

Want: 25%
I guess it could be a cool idea for a fighter.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 17.59%
Being a clone certainly helps.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[Troykv]

Mach Rider

Chance 20%

This guy was already considered for Smash before? Right? That all I need to know... Other wise, is a retro character.

Want: 60%

He looks very cool... But I don't have idea about his moveset xD

Predictions:

Chance: 20%
Want: 33%

Nominations:

Micaiah x5

 

[Double0Groove]

Mach Rider:
Chance: 10%
Not popular.

Want: 45%
Eh, why not. I could easily see some fun to be had with this character.

Prediction:
Toon Zelda:
Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

Nomination:
Sorax5

 

[NintenRob]

Mach Rider
Chance:2%
Want:1%

Nominate: R.O.B. eye bug fix x5

Prediction Toon Zelda
Chance: 18%
Want: 7%

 

[Deleted member]

Mach Rider

Chance: 11.5%

+ NES-era retro character.
+ Sakurai has considered him before.
-- Miniscule ballot support.

Want: 60%

A bike-centric moveset might be interesting.

Prediction: Toon Zelda - 19%

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[Champ Gold]

Perfect choice considering Mad Max is showing.

Mach Rider

Chance: 25%
He has much better chances than Lip, Takamaru and most other retro characters but his chances are limited despite having a trophy in Melee as well as his theme.


Want: 75%
I would like him in but I really don't want his moveset to be 100% on his bike and I wouldn't say him being a Falcon clone would work. He can have his model based off of him like Samus but other than that just make him different from the use of his gun, chains and a Brawler like Falcon and Fox

 

[smileMasky]

mach Rider

Chance: 3%
I do feel like his design is some what un-memorable retro characters do how ever occasionally come out and do bring something new to the table but this time around for him being dlc now. hmmm.. I don't know I can tell it's not even at 50% chance

Want: 45%
the reason for the semi high score is one thing and that's he could be a very aggressive character Like C.F and he could become a different time of CF play style they gave CF a move set and I could see Mach Rider become a rival that of CF

Nomination
2x Django
2x 3rd party 2nds
1x Starman (pro Westling)

 

[Deleted member]

Mach Rider

Allllright, been waiting quite a while now. We now have a viable character this time!
This Character is also one of the many newcomers in that Crusade fangame.

Spoiler

The character also got some nice respresentation in Smash Bros Melee, with his music and a badass trophy around. To this day, the same theme is present on the Wrecking Crew stage ( LOL? )

Chances : 31%

Nobody has, at this time created a Ballot thread for Mach Rider, so it's easy to assume that he's gotten the short end of the stick. But, instead of low chances, he has 31% as he was around in Nintendo's hay-day, getting the honor to be on the legendary console itself with his own game. And like the above said, shown of on Melee with a badass looking trophy.

Want : 100%

Yes. Just yes. Like a couple of other characters i have voted for, this is once again a opportunity to open up a entirely new and original fighting style with his good ol' motorcycle. He would perhaps be a very strong zoner with the guns attached to his bike, and he would be quite quick. Forward smash would be like... charging up a powerful run-over. I dont know how to explain it, but i got it in my head. Down Smash would be a donut technique, and Up Smash would be a wheelie of some sorts with might. Jumping around the level... you would need to get speed in order to do that, and it can't be vertical. Other stuff i don't know just yet, but it's possible to find them.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

You are Mach Rider!

Chance:10%

He's one of the many classic Nintendo characters that was considered back in Melee and he at least had less familiarity issues unlike Miss Ayumi and Takamaru-sama. Sadly, he didn't make the cut in the past due to issues of having to work without his bike and I doubt that should be a problem in this day and age as long as complicated characters like Rosalina and Junior exists. Speaking of Bowser Junior, he can easily be the next vehicle fighter since part of his game;s charge is fighting on a bike that blasts things into oblivion. The only flaws are that there's little to no demand for any retros in the ballot and Sakurai might not want to reintroduce an obscure character as a DLC fighter with people wanting their more desired choices. Then there's the fact that Excitebiker is more "relevant" thanks to the arena appearing in Mario Kart 8 as DLC.

Want: 85%

While the game itself didn't age well with its clunky controls (Same can easily be said for Clu Clu Land and Ice Climber, you can't deny that he has the coolest design of any retro. The guy himself literally screams "Badass Biker" and has a ton of cool abilities at his disposal like the heavily armed motorcycle and his dematerialization abilities. His theme alone lets you know how awesome of a character he is and he's supposedly Sakurai's "favorite character" if we look back at the old pre-Melee documents from the past. He's not wanted as high since there's a few others I'd prefer who are both unlikely due to the the dreaded AT virus and Villager stealing balloons.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 21%

Nominations: Takamaru x5 #SlashtheVote