Z25
Pokemon Illusionist
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- Jan 6, 2014
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- Zoroarkrules571
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As optimistic most people feel how good Captain Toad's chances are, I feel the complete opposite of that spectrum. The thing I will not argue is his moveset potential. Based on the positive moveset arguments given in today's RTC, I do think there is enough to work with Captain Toad, there is enough provided to spark Sakurai's imagination out of. However, the problem I have with him is his significance and representation to the Mario series as a whole.
Captain Toad established his own series in Treasure Tracker after his minor role in the Galaxy games and his bigger role in Super Mario 3D World. The game can definitely be considered a minor success in terms of Mario spinoffs, given the 1 million+ units sold on the Wii U. With his minor role appearing yet again for Mario Odyssey and a re-release of Treasure Tracker for the Switch soon, it seems like Captain Toad is closer than ever to having a playable status. Well, here is the biggest issue. The problem is that his spinoff series is not significant enough for him to warrant that status.
Consider all the Mario characters in the Smash 4 roster. Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser are the main representatives. Then we get to the characters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr. Given their major appearances in best selling games like NSMB Wii and Super Mario Galaxy and pushes in marketing for Wii U and 3DS Mario games years ago, their playability in Smash 4 is no surprise. Now we get to the characters from the Mario spinoffs like Dr. Mario, Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Wario, and Yoshi.
What do all of the Mario spinoff characters share in common? Their spinoff games shared massive financial successes and critical acclaim in games like SMW: Yoshi's Island 2, the Donkey Kong Country Trilogy, Dr. Mario for the NES and Gameboy, and the WarioWare series. All of these Mario spinoffs have a fair share of at least gaining 10+ million in total sales. Their reasons for Smash playability made sense. Compared to Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, this one spinoff series had only been established years ago and only gained 1/10th of that sweet Mario spinoff success.
That is 1/10th of the total sales of the entire Paper Mario series. Despite Paper Mario nearing 10 million in sales, it has yet to gain a playability status, despite high demand for Paper Mario and massive moveset potential PM could offer in Smash (Bigger moveset potential than Captain Toad IMO), even after the series had huge amount of content in Brawl and Smash 4. What does this mean for Captain Toad's chances? It means his chances of getting in are pretty low.
I believe that when it came time to consider characters gaining recent appearances for established franchises for Smash Switch, Captain Toad was likely considered for the game. The main reason why I think the idea of Captain Toad will be passed off is because Sakurai will likely identify Captain Toad as a Mario spinoff character rather than a Mario character because of the Toad's newly established series. Because his spinoff series has yet to gain critical and/or massive sales success, I think Sakurai will reject Captain Toad for playability.
This is NOT about Captain Toad's fanbase's idea of representing all Toads in the Mario series. This is judging based on the success and critical acclaim of the Captain Toad spinoff series itself. So what if Sakurai views Captain Toad as a Mario character? Well, let us reconsider stuff like Rosalina and Bowser Jr., who have gained notably more major appearances in recent Mario games for the 3DS, Wii U, and Switch and marketing push. Does Captain Toad have that? To an extent, but not in the same massive degree as both characters with the Toad's minor roles in Galaxy/Odyssey, his somewhat major role in 3D World, and main role in Treasure Tracker.
Unless this character is promoted to a high level like Isabelle in Animal Crossing and Rosalina in Mario, the chances of Nintendo highly recommending Sakurai to add Captain Toad in Smash is really low. Isabelle, in particular, had appeared playable in Mario Kart 8 and as a Mii costume in Smash 4 likely due to promotional push. Does Captain Toad get similar treatment? Not to the extent of Isabelle, which indicates to me that Nintendo nor Sakurai have the intention of seriously pushing Captain Toad for marketing future Mario games and adding him in Smash 4 or Smash Switch.
Unless the Captain Toad spinoff game for the Switch gets a miraculously financial and critical success to the same extent to at least Dr. Mario, I doubt we will be seeing his inclusion anytime soon. If Paper Mario could not get in despite having the sales and moveset potential, Captain Toad will not either. This character will likely be judged on his own merits of the Mario spinoff success, rather than judging based on the degree of appearances and 'representing Toads' in recent Mario games.
I think Sakurai holds a high standard for Mario spinoff characters when being considered for playability in Smash. If it is a Mario spinoff that is not of the same degree of success of WarioWare and Yoshi's Island games, why bother considering for playability? That is what I imagine. And unfortunately for Captain Toad, I believe he will have to have to achieve way much more than getting a new spinoff game in order to be playable in future Smash games to come.
Everything I explain here is why I have never been optimistic about Mario characters like Waluigi, Daisy, and Paper Mario during Smash 4 and Smash Switch's speculation. I am reminded of Pic of the Day when in Smash Bros. Miiverse, Sakurai revealed Waluigi's AT role in the Pic of the Day. His deliberate quote of "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into the battle.", although the words he say are mostly joking, rings to me that adding Mario characters in Smash are of a tighter criteria. As someone who wanted Waluigi, but did not expect his playability, I understood something that day. If Waluigi could not make into battle with his notable lack of marketing push (like Rosalina) and having his spinoffs despite having an EXTREMELY likable personality and charisma, no other Mario character will come to join Smash either. Neither will Captain Toad for this Smash installment for the Switch.
If you have something to argue against this. I would like to hear it. A heated, open debate is always welcome for me.
I am very curious to hear supporters' and @YoshiandToad 's perspective on my perspective.
When your the only character playable in that game, (lets be honest toadette is basically the same), then of course sales go towards popularity. Captain Toad upon reveal received a lot of praise and sold pretty well considering how bad the Wii U was. I'm also betting that the switch port and 3ds port will sell quite well.Sales do not equal character popularity my man. It would be like saying Chrom is more popular than any of the Awakening characters when in reality Lucina is the queen of popularity for Awakening.
If being playable in Treasure Tracker and 3D World means he is a significant character to the Mario franchise, then why does he not frequently appear in recent Mario Sports and Party spinoffs like Rosalina? This is all the more reason why I think Sakurai will treat Captain Toad and Toad differently and judge the character by the Captain's own merits. Treasure Tracker and the side-quests in 3D World gave the character a distinguishable identity from the original Toad thanks to how the Treasure Tracker gameplay greatly differed from the main Mario game. Why would Sakurai think Captain Toad and Toad are the same thing at that point and add Toad's importance to the Mario series as a benefactor? I do not see that thought process coming across naturally for Sakurai. The statements just do not correlate.
I think Captain Toad's popularity is being under estimated here. He showed up in a lot of ballot polls and seemed to do well. Also I'm positive he's playable in Aces. Anyway, moveset potential seems to be the biggest focus for Sakurai, and due to this I think that it definitely helps his chances.
On top of that, Toad was already decently requested and this is the perfect way to handle both. I believe that with these ports, Captain is going to be pushed hard. He's a super easy character to market and people love Mario Characters.
Right now I view him exactly like Rosalina. Debuted the same game, both have their own storylines going on while Mario does his thing, and both got pretty popular over time. The Toad Brigade and Captain right now feel like what Bandanna Dee is to Kirby, an ally providing Mario with what he needs to complete his quest, while also joining in it. The Brigade travels the world adventuring just like Mario and they even showed up again in Odyssey. I fully believe Nintendo thinks the Toad brigade are characters that should show up and do stuff in the latter Mario Titles. I would not be surprised if they wanted Sakurai to help push the character more while also adding a super unique and easy to market character.
On top of that it would not surprise me if CT was given the Corrin treatment and put in as easy lowkey advertisement. I think CT would rep a new ERA for Mario Spinoffs/characters and will open the door to future Mario spinoffs based on characters that get introduced. ( Although this probably won't be for some time). Regardless CT would be a good choice for repping modern mario characters outside of Mario himself. Alhough I see Bowser Jr. less as a modern character, more of "Ive been in like every freaking Mario game since they made me, put me in Smash!" and he had good popularity. He's definitely inspired by his origins though, well NSMB ones anyway. Rosalina I do think Rep's Galaxy but not as a modern thing, more the moveset changes that Galaxy bought since Mario himself wasn't getting updated and they wanted more female characters/Rosalina was in the spotlight. I honestly think Rosalina started to get pushed because Nintendo wanted to make more of an icon of her as they wanted more female representation. Plus it may not be unlikely that they thought she'd be cool for Smash, but we'll probably never know for sure.
To sum things up basically, I think CT is fairly likely and is starting to become what Rosalina did. Only time will tell but I really think he has good odds and could very easily become playable to due his status right now and how unique he truly is and would probably be easier to do than Waluigi or Paper Mario( but that's for another discussion)