Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

Pauline:

Chance - 3%
I would be...very surprised if she made the roster. Iconic, yeah certainly. She was in Brawl and Smash 4 as a stage prop I see her reprising that role in the background when the inevitable New Donk City stage has the Odyssey theme song.

Want - 15%
Not particularly interesting character or concept. If she made it in then that means Sakurai did something quite fascinating and imaginative to put her in. That's my sole reason and it is hypothetical.

Captain Toad:

Chance - 20%
Pretty much on the same boat as Bandana Dee for me. Based on smash 4 newcomers he lacks the tools to be an inspired addition. Toads are however easily recognizable.so there is always a chance.

Want - 30%
Never cared for Toad but the Captain Toad game was a decently big hit and deserves something. Albeit I sense a stage more than anything else.

Takamaru prediction: 46.5%
Noms: Toadette x2, Black Shadow x1, Character Trailers x2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Pauline
Chance: 1% - Her history is literally all she has going for her. She's just not recognizable to the masses. Trophy, maybe assist trophy material. She's not a fighter, and I could really only see her in a New Donk City stage as a background character.
Want: 0% - Why? Toad, Daisy, and Waluigi are all far more relevant and far more capable fighters.

Captain Toad
Chance: 15% - Nintendo seems to love pushing him as a separate character than normal Toads, and he has his own game, so I could see them utilizing him. He also has an upcoming game and crossover with Mario Odyssey, so...
Want: 50% - I'd like to see a Toad in Smash, but this one is one I could take or leave. If he gets in, great! If not, I'm not gonna be upset.

Prediction: Takamaru
Chance: 43.27%
Want: 87.56%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Pauline

Chance: 10%
She has nothing for a moveset (though that didn't stop Palutena).

Want: 10%
I like what the did with her in Odyssey, but she'd feel totally out-of-place as a fighter. Plus if she got in before Waluigi I'd lose my ****.

Captain Toad

Chance: 25%
It's only a matter of time before either him or regular Toad get in.

Want: 20%
I'd prefer the regular Toad with stuff based off of his playable appearances in New Super Mario Bros., Super Mario Bros. 2 and Super Mario 3D World, along with inspiration from Captain Toad. Having it be just the captain seems unnecessarily restrictive.

Takamaru prediction: 50%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x1
Funky Kong x4

In the other hand, Fire Emblem is filled with main characters and interesting ideas for moveset across the series.

And... half of the FE Roster was create because of the "correct circunstances" (Roy, Lucina and Corrin).

That's definitely true, my point was just that the argument of "FE is huge now" is just wrong.

 

[Deleted member]

Captain Toad
Chance: 68%
He's the most obvious choice for a Mario newcomer, and arguably the only one that makes any real amount of sense. That's important considering that they're aren't all that many characters left that can add the same kind of star power. He has his own game on the Switch, and he could very easily be used to market it as well as Mario Odyssey. Toads have always been important to Mario in general, but Captain Toad can provide that spark to get into Smash Bros that regular Toad probably didn't have. I can see a moveset designed to make Captain Toad feel like he's exploring every stage he fights on. And yes, if Sonic can swim, than Captain Toad can jump (albeit only a small hop), or summon platforms as a workaround.

Want: 70%
I'll take any kind of Toad really, although Captain Toad is my favorite.

Pauline
Chance: 0.5%
The only reason she's even brought up is because of the critically acclaimed Odyssey. What would she even do? She only sings a cool song in her most notable appearance. Any moveset would have to be an out of character mish-mash of things in New Donk City, or take from the Mini Mario games, which would undermine the whole point of representing Odyssey. The only thing Odyssey needs is a stage and a Cappy special attack for Mario.

Want: 0%
She just doesn't have what it takes to be a Smash character.

Nominations: Lyn x3, Dillon x2

Prediction: Takamaru 37.54%

 

[Xenigma]

I like the idea of doing double days for minor/related characters, so I'm definitely cool with seeing more. Anyway, time to get very serious (sorry in advance, and feel free to laugh at me if I'm wrong like with Duck Hunt back in Sm4sh):

Pauline
Chance - 0%
I will give props to Nintendo for one thing: Pauline's use in Super Mario Odyssey is very cool, and I'd genuinely like to see her appear as a part of a New Donk City stage. As a playable character, though? Honestly, why? She doesn't bring anything to the table game-play wise, and she's a B-list character at best in the Mario universe who happens to have gotten an excellent cameo in a recent game. I'm also not convinced by her support thread which suggests her moveset would comprise of Mario vs Donkey Kong minis and Cappy from Odyssey, neither of which to the best of my knowledge she really has anything to do with beyond being in those games. Frankly, I doubt she even entered the discussion for the roster, and unless she continues to rise in prominence in the near future, I doubt she's a DLC contender either.
Want - 0%
Honestly, I don't think Mario should get a new character this time around, and if they had to add one, I think choosing Pauline in particular would be a mistake.

Captain Toad
Chance - 0% 25% - See second paragraph
Let me be very clear: I don't think Toad(s), as a rule, should not be in Smash. Rather, I've got a very specific peeve with Captain Toad: his defining feature is that he doesn't jump. Either they have to break with the spirit of his character and allow him to jump easily to function properly in Smash, or they'd have to do some really weird grounded moveset where he forces jumps in other ways to work around the restriction. something we practically already have with Little Mac. I just don't see Sakurai wanting to go through the trouble either way, and like Pauline I think he is best represented as a stage, where he'd be solving a puzzle in the background that changes the stage as he progresses, which by the way would be really cool (Sakurai please!).

EDIT: The not-jumping thing remains my biggest hang-up with the character, but I've seen enough plausible explanations of what to do with him as well as examples of previously "unfaithful" character adaptations that I'm willing to concede that Sakurai can work around it if he wants to do so. (These sorts of moveset ideas/explanations really ought to be in the first post of Captain Toad's thread, but I digress.) I also can't deny that he's had a really good run in terms of appearances, both with main-series Mario games and his own title with a Switch port. It's kind of like Nimbostratus suggested: I may think he doesn't make sense for Smash, but casual fans have every reason to believe he deserves a shot. I'm sticking with my gut feeling that he doesn't make it, but I have to concede he's much more plausible than I gave him credit for.

Want - 75%
The irony is, if I'm wrong, I'd probably be all for him! I've been a Toad fan for ages (I play as Toadette in particular whenever possible), so while I don't have particularly strong feelings for Captain Toad in particular and would rather see other franchises get more characters, I can't imagine I wouldn't be excited for his inclusion.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Predictions - Takamaru - 38.75% Chance, 55% Want
I really have no idea what to expect here. Probably some inflated scores due to his Assist Trophy/Mii costume, but I'd assume a lot of apathy as well due to being extremely niche.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Pauline
Chances: 20%
A surprise character for sure
Want: 100% I TOTALLY WANT HER

Captain Toad
Chances: 50%
Want 80%

Nomitations:
Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[slambros]

Pauline

Chance: 5%
Her chance was zero in the past. But now, her role got a big update. For some, she stole the show. So I can't give her zero now; I have to express what her role's done for chances. But I still feel like she'd be a bottom-barrel-scrape for Mario representatives when I already feel like there's not gonna be many characters addes to the game. Still, after Odyssey, I cannot say her chances are zero.

Want: 40%
I'm not particularly passionate about Pauline; I think I would want other characters from the Mario games like Geno or Waluigi first.

Captain Toad

Chance: 20%
Toad has made the same jump DK, Yosho, and Wario have, and that jump is to get his owm franchise. That simply makes him more relevant than many, many other of the current candidates. But I think his chance is muted nonetheless because Cpt. Toad as a franchise seems like a low priority franchise if they have not made a new game yet -- though they have announcrd the first one's rerelease, and that is a start.

Want: 0%
I'd love to be proven wrong, as Cpt. Toad seems like a cool and warranted spin on the character of Toad, but I feel like throwing him into the fray would violate his character. He apparently isn't supposed to jump, and he's more of a thinker than a brawler. All of this is another reason why I gave him a lower chance score, as the developers and Sakurai may put who Cpt. Toad is as a character into account. He really just doesn't seem like he fits into Smash, at least to me.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[Erimir]

Captain Toad

I'm going to be conflating Captain Toad a bit with Toad in general, since I think if they chose to include Captain Toad it would be due to Toad's overall prominence, not just the Captain Toad game, say.

I mentioned some of this earlier but... Toad (in general) is important in the Mario series, which is the biggest video game franchise in the world. Toad has been in many games as an NPC (most of the mainline games) or a playable character (including most of the spinoff games). Captain Toad specifically has headlined his own game, and most recently appeared in Super Mario Odyssey on the Switch. Captain Toad is being ported with additional content to the Switch, to be released later this year.

So Toad is, in general, relevant and one of the most important remaining Mario characters, and Captain Toad specifically has recent relevance.

HOWEVER... There are three major issues.

First is that Toad is part of Peach's move set. This is mostly overcome by making this Captain Toad, making him distinct from Peach's... kinda like human shield. But it might seem a little strange nonetheless.

Second is that Toad is such a ineffectual and/or minor character generally. While Toads are ubiquitous, they rarely get imbued with real personality, but are sort of generic. They're usually just getting saved or helped out by Mario. This decreases the motivation for having Toad as a fighter.

Third is... what will he do? I'm not sure what a Captain Toad move set looks like. Sure you can come up with something, you can add generic attacks (Fox and Captain Falcon wouldn't be playable characters if you couldn't just invent moves for characters that don't have them). But there's not a whole lot to give him based on the games aside from throwing vegetables (something Toad does in SMB2 and as Captain Toad), a move that Peach already has. Peach also already has a couple moves based on Mario sports spinoffs (her tennis racket and golf club F-smashes).

(Speaking of Peach, I wouldn't mind if they wanted to revamp Peach's move set in response to making Toad [or Daisy or Waluigi] playable and utilize more material from Super Mario RPG and such.)

While you can certainly come up with something for Captain Toad, he doesn't "dance in my head" as Sakurai would say. You have to work to come up with ideas, rather than a Mega Man or Link situation, where instead you have to decide which weapons and moves won't make it in (even after giving Mega Man different robot master weapons for his custom specials!).

Captain Toad chances: 9%
I can see the argument for him as being worthy in terms of Toad's legacy as a playable Mario character, and how well-known and such. But it's hard to consider what his moves would be, without basically giving him a bunch of generic Mario sports moves, or give him abilities that were used by the whole cast in SMB2 or Super Mario 3D World or the like. The fact is Captain Toad mostly just walks around and throws turnips.

I also have to give Captain Toad a little less chance because this is Captain Toad specifically. If they want to put a Toad in, they could put him in as just "Toad", or put in Toadette, or one of the other named Toad characters. There's at least a little chance of one of the other Toads being the version they use.

So I don't think he's that likely.

Captain Toad want: 55%
I'd be ok with it, but it would depend on the execution.

Pauline

Pauline was in the original Donkey Kong games, and got her most prominent role since in Super Mario Odyssey. She had some roles in those Mario Minis games, but was still being saved. They developed her a bit more in SMO, moving her beyond a mere damsel in distress and making her the mayor of a major city as well as a jazz-influenced pop singer. I also think her design in SMO is more appealing, less sexualized and more realistic proportions.

The big problem here is that... that doesn't really say much about what she'd do as a fighter. Her move set would have to either be a clone or be basically completely made up for the game.

So it just comes down to whether Sakurai likes her and came up with some weird idea for her move set, or wanted a blank slate to work with. But that doesn't seem likely to happen. Then again, they were able to do something with Rosalina (albeit there was more material to work with, given Luma and star bits and such).

Pauline chances: 5%
Her relatively prominent role in SMO as the singer of the big song is about the only thing to recommend her. What would she do? Who knows. If they wanted a clone of Peach, Daisy would make more sense...

Pauline want: 25%
I mean, if Sakurai has a great idea, she could be fun. But I don't really see it. Having another female character would be nice, I suppose. But that's about it.

Takamaru prediction: 30%

Nominations: Roy x5

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

As for the noms list. I will update it tomorrow, hopefully my internet is fixed now that the snow has melted. If it is not fixed, I will likely be in the library fixing it. Once I get to college, expect no more **** ups with the noms list.

I was going to offer to help out with that, actually...I've been really curious about where the noms stood, so I was fully prepared to count them up. But if you've got it caught up, I'll let you handle it. I wouldn't mind keeping up with it if you need a hand, though.

On a side note, looks like there's been a fair amount of discussion about B-Dee...I had no idea he would generate such a debate. Kirby fans are certainly a passionate bunch--I say this being one of them, of course...

Anyhoozle. Day eight, double day. The lady in the red dress and the fungal leader.

Pauline

Chance: 5%

Pauline has done three things total in her existence: gotten captured by an ape (a few times), ran a giant city, and sung big band jazz like a boss. While two of those things are quite admirable, none of them translates to a fighter. Trophy? Definitely. Level? Likely. Assist Trophy? Sure. But not a fighter.

Want: 1%

Again, as a fighter, no. But I adore the character, now that they've fleshed her out so much, and I look forward to her (very likely) appearance as an NPC in Smash.

Captain Toad

Chance: 75%

Honestly, I see this as pretty likely. He's clearly the best candidate for the next Mario rep. There's a decent chunk of ways I can see Sakurai going with him. Plus, there's promoting his game. Is he a given? Certainly not, but I can't think of a better Mario character that wouldn't just be a clone or alt skin.

Want: 50%

Eh. Like with Bowser Jr., I'd be like "oh, neat. He looks fun." He'd likely be in my character rotation, but I wouldn't be particularly thrilled about him. Nor would I be bitter of his inclusion, either (as I was with Rosaluma.) This is a hard "sure, why not."

Prediction: Takamaru

Chance: 9.77%

Nominations

Marx 5x

 

[Nimbostratus]

Pauline
Chance- 4%
I mean, I guess Pauline has some recent prominence and could pass as a retro? I don't know. It doesn't seem that likely. I don't hardly any moveset potential, which would dramatically hurt her chances.
Want- 15%
There are worse ideas, and I don't dislike her. But I don't really see the need, either. Again, I don't see a strong moveset here.

Captain Toad
Chance- 68%
One of the higher rankings I'll give. He seems criminally underestimated by a lot of people. I don't think the developers will fear have "too much Mario", so there goes that. He has some competition from his series, but I personally don't see Daisy happening, and I just don't see Waluigi as being at Toad's level, either. Even if one of them did sneak in, nothing stopped us from getting both Rosalina and Bowser Jr. last time.
Toad is an incredibly iconic character. If there were concerns about Toad being generic or having no moveset potential, the introduction of Captain Toad solves this. I'm not sure they would even need to bother changing Peach's shield, though I'd just assume that go, anyways.
Captain Toad has at least decent popularity. Has major relevancy with multiple recent appearances- he even has his own game, which is also going to be getting a Switch release. This reminds me of when casual fan Nimbostratus thought Rosalina would be a shoe-in for Smash 4 before I found SmashBoards and the people here convinced me otherwise. Casual Nimbostratus would believe in Captain Toad, so I'm going to follow his lead. Nothing is certain, but don't dismiss this guy.
Want- 100%
Toad is iconic and his inclusion would make things feel complete. I also think Captain Toad is a fun character. His moveset might not be too wild (well, depending on how they handle jumps), but not everything has to be. It could be unique without just being a hodgepodge of things that don't make much sense (which is all I could see for Pauline, honestly). I'm on board!

Takamaru Predictions- 38%

Nominations:
Andy x3
Dillon x2

 

[Deleted member]

Captain Toad:

Chances: 80%

Toad is the only Main Mario Character to not be playable in Smash yet. Him getting a game and identity all his own with Captain Toad really makes it look like this is his time. And with upcoming Switch and 3DS ports of Treasure Tracker the argument that his time of relevance has passed no longer holds any water.

Desire: 100%

Giving Toad his Toad abilities with a mix of Captain Toad related stuff would make for a nice addition to the roster.

Pauline:

Chances: 20%

I don't see this one happening. Her revival could easily be seen by the developers as too soon and there doesn't seem to be a lot of moveset potential to work with.

Desire: 20%

She'd be an okay addition I guess. Might take some getting used to though. But this isn't something I can say I actively want.


Nominations:

Falco x1
Greninja x1
Mewtwo x1
Bayonetta x1
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x1

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Pauline

Chance: 1%

As a point of comparison, this is the exact same score that I gave Ridley, a character Sakurai has stated, on multiple occasions, to have problems fitting into Smash. I just don't see why Pauline would get in. Waluigi, Captain Toad, and Daisy have far more going for them than Pauline does, they've been more important to the Mario series for much, much longer, and they've got more things to draw inspiration from for movesets. What would she do that another more important and interesting character couldn't do better? Sing? I'd take the Chorus Kids over her in a heartbeat.

Want: 0%

Nothing about Pauline in Smash appeals to me, and I would really dislike seeing her get in over other Mario characters who frankly deserve it more. As a stage element or an assist trophy, I'd be happy to see her, but as a character? No.

Captain Toad

Chance: 65%

This is the exact same rating I gave Bandana Dee with pretty much the exact same reasoning, except in this case Captain Toad has arguably more going for him. He's got some interesting things he can do, he's got a defining gimmick (Lack of jumps) that Sakurai can work around, and he's been granted a bigger role in every subsequent game he's appeared in.

Want: 100%

And again, I could pretty much copy and paste my reasoning with Bandana Dee, with the added bonus of Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker being a fantastic game that really got me to fall in love with the character.


Prediction for Takamaru: 18%

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[andimidna]

Finally some characters I’m actually excited to talk about lmao
Pauline:

I think this is an underrated option. She isn’t the breakout star that Rosalina was with her immense popularity, but unlike Rosalina, she has deep roots and relevance in the history of Nintendo. With the way she disappeared for so long, it’s almost like she’s an official retro character. I wouldn’t count her as such, but it’s interesting to say the least. I find this option so interesting. Insead of completely reworking Mario around Oddessey, they can just fix up a couple of moves to keep things fresh, but throw the Oddessey content onto Pauline. (For reference, this is how I’d like them to treat Breath of the Wild with Impa, despite her not being prominent to that game specifically. That’s a different story.) I could totally see her throwing barrels, using those little wind up toys of Mario characters, singing, dancing/ striking poses, flinging her hat, and even swinging her microphone stand lmaoo
Honestly, I love it.
Don’t confuse this with being merely promotion. She’s no newbie to the Mario series.
I think these are the 2 significant choices from Mario, unless Waluigi or Daisy scored significantly high on the ballot. I could definitely see the developers skipping Waluigi again. Now that we have Rosalina and Bowser Jr/Koopalings already established, it doesn’t seem as bad of an option as it did for Smash 4 in my opinion, but Pauline and Captain Toad are the characters I’ll rate the most highly from Mario.

Pauline chance: 27%
Cpt. Toad chance: 65%

One of the only 4 new characters I’ll rate over 50%
I do expect Cpt Toad. This is coming from someone that didn’t like the idea of Toad in Smash 4 and rated him poorly, and it’s all thanks to falling in love with Captain Toad and his series. He has the spotlight on him and has his own things he actually does lmao. I totally see this. I’d love to see quickly rising platforms as his jump, the large platforms you have to blow as his up b, that tether, the mine cart, his pickaxe. I think it’s his pack and unconventional recovery that make him all the more interesting to me. I would rate a generic Toad representing the Mario series lower.

Pauline want: 95%
Captain Toad want: 95%

Takamaru prediction: 58%

x3 Midna
x1 Anna
x1 Azura

Edit: bolded is to show how to stay true to his attributes while making him a fun fighter. It wasn’t even difficult to come up with as it’s literally what he does in his games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Sid-cada]

Pauline

Chance - 0.5% - Unless Sakurai proves that he is crazier than we know, her dearth of move set potential stifles her. Yeah, Odyssey brought her back, but unless she can actually, y'know, do something worthy of being a fighter I don't see it. Unlike Rosalina, she doesn't have anything supernatural or particularity unusual to back her up on.

Want - 35% - If she got in, I would be interested in how she plays, but otherwise I would heavenly question her appearance.\


Captain Toad

Chance - 45% - Unlike Bandanna Dee of yesterday, it isn't as clear cut who is going to be picked if they deliberately go for a Mario character. While I view him as the most likely Mario character, competition and potential struggles with a good move set make it harder to predict.

Want - 80% - Toad, any Toad, feel like they should have gotten in already. I would be fairly happy to see him in.


Predicitons

Takamaru - 64.34% - Retros are fairly hard to predict, but he's a clear front runner.


Nominaitons

Anna X5

 

[Starcutter]

Speaking of noms, Starcutter guessed the closest and get 5 extra noms, use them well.

I knew people would drag down that score from where it should be, haha!

Captian Toad: 40%
While the good captian had his merits, I personally think we might only get one mario character. And I beleive that to be Waluigi. That being said, C. Toad could always get in instead, or even alongside Waluigi.
Want: 50%
I'm indifferent to his inclusion. If he gets in his voice would probably get even more meme-tastic, so that'll be fun.

Pauline: 2%
Hey, that's not nothing! She could theoretically get in! But that's just a Theory, and we know how bullcrap those can get.
Want: 5%
I want her slightly more than I think her chances are, but I reaally don't think she would fit in smash. This is coming from a guy who wants Isabelle and the characters from Snipperclips! Maybe have her actually DOING SOMETHING in the next mario game, and then we can talk.

Takamaru Prediction: 27%

Nominations: Snip & Clip x10!!!

 

[Quetzal77]

Pauline
Chances: 5%
She would make a good unexpected addition, but I don't see it happening. She seems more AT or cameo material.

Want: 40%
She's cool in Odyssey, yes, but I don't think Mario needs more playable characters that much, and if there has to be one, I can think of someone better...

Captain Toad
Chances: 50%
Toad is really the last super iconic Mario character to not be playable in Smash. And now with Capt. Toad there's a specific one that can be added to represent them all, heck, throw in a Toadette alt too! It's entirely possible as he's had cameos and also his own game. I just don't think Mario newcomers will be a priority. I do think he's the most likely if one is added though.

Want: 70%
I love Toad, so yeah, I'm down for him finally getting an invite. That said, it would be more of a nice bonus to see him rather than someone I actively am hoping for.

Prediction for Takamaru: 74%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Propeller Toad]

Captain Toad
Chances: 65%

It's obvious that I am biased towards Toad and Captain Toad; however, this time I do feel rather confident about Captain Toad getting in. His game is coming out for not only the Switch but the 3DS as well while his game too has many unique mechanics that could use representation in Smash. It's tough seeing Toad getting rejected 3 Smashes in a row since Melee, but i feel that Captain Toad's chances are at his best right now and hopefully we see him in one day as a fighter.

Many mention his lack of jumps, but I personally see this as innovation for something we have yet to see in Smash. Perhaps jumps akin to touchstone/blow platforms from his own game can even be made to "cheat" his jump mechanic. We've seen Sakurai change his views before (Villager and not being able to fight for instance), so I feel a bit confident giving C. Toad this score.

Want: 100%

Having wanted Toad in since Melee to fulfil the SMB 2 cast (my childhood) - I'm rooting for the little guy one last time.

Pauline:
Chances: 10 %

I like Pauline, I really do. However, I feel that she needs a bit more major roles to influence my thoughts on her chances. But then again, Rosalina happened in Sm4sh, so I'll give her a 10% as she is fairly popular and Odyssey was a great game overall.

Want: 50%

She has potential, but I really want to see my boy Toad/Captain Toad get in after so long. Nothing against Pauline, but I really do wish to see the Captain first this time around!

Takamaru Prediction: 55%

Nomination: Dillon x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Finally some characters I’m actually excited to talk about lmao

Cpt. Toad chance: 65%

One of the only 4 new characters I’ll rate over 50%
I do expect Cpt Toad. This is coming from someone that didn’t like the idea of Toad in Smash 4 and rated him poorly, and it’s all thanks to falling in love with Captain Toad and his series. He has the spotlight on him and has his own things he actually does lmao. I totally see this. I’d love to see quickly rising platforms as his jump, the large platforms you have to blow as his up b, that tether, the mine cart, his pickaxe. I think it’s his pack and unconventional recovery that make him all the more interesting to me. I would rate a generic Toad representing the Mario series lower.

Edit: bolded is to show how to stay true to his attributes while making him a fun fighter. It wasn’t even difficult to come up with as it’s literally what he does in his games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is why I had him over 50% too. The only reason I didn't put it higher was that Toad has been skimmed over before, and it's a real possibility that it happens again. But seriously, the bolded part is why I think he's pretty likely, all things considered. My mind keeps coming back to the project proposals where Sakurai lists the theme of characters. For Rosalina, it was puppet fighter. For Robin, it was the limited uses of his sword and magic attacks. Back in Brawl, Meta Knight was described as a pointed swordfighter. I can totally see a Captain Toad that really is "ready for adventure", one that is an homage to how he explores as the central theme behind his moveset. I think I convinced myself to raise his chance score while typing this lol.

 

[Troykv]

Pauline:

Chance: Abstain.

I don't want to play with fire, and trying to predict Pauline is playing with fire.

Want: 50%

I'm neutral.



Captain Toad:

Chance: 50%

Essencially same sittuation that Bandana Dee, nothing more to say.

Want: 50%

Eh... I'm neutral with the Kinoko-zuku anyway.

_____

Predicitons: Takamaru: 53.4% (losing competition and having a bigger name in west will definitely help Takamaru this time).

Nominations: Micaiah x5

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chance, Pauline: 15%

Pauline doesn't strike me as incredibly likely AT THE MOMENT, but is a bit of a darkhorse pick, Super Mario Odyssey has obviously been hugely successful and it shilled her out a fair amount considering how non-existant she was before. She has retro appeal as well and could add more female characters to the game. I feel what makes her less likely is that compared to Rosalina and others who got in, she has been in less recent games, and is less prominent. If Pauline gets a playable appearance like Rosalina did in response to fans, then her chance in my opinion skyrockets. Pauline does also have some issues of being difficult to work with.

Chance, Captain Toad: 70%

He seems pretty likely. His game sold well, is getting a Switch port, and he has enough appearances to distinct himself from other Toads, he's appeared in a good number of names at this point and is recognizable. He pretty obviously is not Just Another Toad. Yes, his games involve him not jumping, but obviously things can be changer for a fighter, it isn't like Mega Man with his five million references doesn't break some rules, or Duck Hunt Dog working WITH the dog, or any number of changes in the game. They could just make him a bad jumper to represent it. There is about a 90% chance of some new Mario character.

He is one of the more likely Mario newcomers, but does have some hurdles to overcome, first and foremost simply being there are a LOT of Mario options! Now, if any series has a good shot at multiple reps, it is Mario. Mario is the flagship Nintendo franchise after all. So, Captain Toad's issue with competition is somewhat lessened by that. Captain Toad could have to compete with regular Toad or other Toad characters, but at this point he feels the most prominent, so he probably overcomes that hurdle. He doesn't have the widest variety of attacks, but the pickaxe is enough to provide filler and probably a Special, so more can be made. Actually talking about it, I've talked myself from 60% to 70% odds.

Want, Pauline: 20%

My want isn't super high for Pauline right now mostly because her moveset is quite murky right now and I could see it kind of turning out bad, plus she hasn't made many appearances, if she had more moveset fodder it'd be higher.

Want, Captain Toad: 27.5%

I'm not super interested in Captain Toad, he has more room for an interesting moveset and as a character he doesn't necessarily seem bad, but there are soooo many Mario options I would prefer over him and he doesn't have much specific appeal, still he isn't a character who is a negative to be in the roster to me and just would kind of feel like a comparitive waste.

Nominations:

Toadette x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
2B x1
Vaati x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1

Prediction, Takamaru

18.8%

 

[MasterWarlord]

Pauline Chance: 18%
Pauline Want: 13%

I'd rather have Pauline than Captain Toad or Sticker Star Mario but don't see it as likely to happen because of the existence of those two characters. I would put her at a higher wanted level if she had any kind of fighting ability at all.

Captain Toad Chance: 40%
Captain Toad Want: 0%

I still consider him to be Toad, who is a boring NPC and doesn't have as much character as Bandana Dee. I also really don't like his new games.

I would put him a lot lower without Captain Toad but as is it will probably be him or Sticker Star Mario.

 

[CodeBlue_]

Ladies and Gentlemen (or more likely just gentlemen), welcome to the end of dee first week of RTC!!! I'm late for this my rant, so I'll post statistics for Bandanna Dee some time tomorrow~~~

And what an interesting character to end dee week with . this is the end of dee puns, sorry For those of you who don’t know, I love the Kirby series and am an AVID supporter of Bandanna Dee. Normally I would just write up the statistics as I have done the other characters, but this little guy is a little personal. If you guys want me to do an analysis or rant of future characters, just let me know! I have spring break starting next week (after finals), so I will have a lot more free-time.

Without further ado…let’s start with my prediction (SHOUTOUTS TO @PushDustIn and the rest of Source Gaming for the Sakurai related articles. You guys are the pinnacle of Smash related news and I look forward to seeing your content for Smash Switch when more information comes out <333333333.

My Prediction: 40% Chance, 100+% Want

Bandanna Dee is a character that is more unlikely than not to get into the next edition of Smash Bros. based on Masahiro Sakurai’s attitude towards the Kirby series. For those who don’t know, Sakurai is the director of the Smash Bros. series, practically creating the entire series from a game planned for the Nintendo 64 called Dragon King: The Fighting Game. He has a very bizarre philosophy on games, a point further stressed by him actually comparing himself to George Lucas in response to dealing with criticism of the game; an incredibly accurate description of how he is as a developer. He has made some absolutely insane design choices over the years, along with crazy choices that actually worked. Like him or not, Sakurai is here to stay for the next Smash Bros. title.

Before Smash, Sakurai was the creator of the Kirby franchise, starting with Kirby’s Dream Land for the Nintendo Game Boy. Sakurai stayed with the developing team for the Kirby series, HAL Laboratory for over ten years working on exclusively Kirby titles. Then, in 2003, after the release of Kirby Air Ride, he decided to left HAL Laboratory and the Kirby series behind him and form his own company, Sora Ltd . From what Sakurai said, the pressure of making Kirby sequels caused his departure:

“'It was tough for me to see that every time I made a new game, people automatically assumed that a sequel was coming,"'said Masahiro Sakurai on August 26, 2003, in an interview with Nintendo Dream, two weeks after his resignation from HAL Laboratory. 'Even if it's a sequel, lots of people have to give their all to make a game, but some people think the sequel process happens naturally.'" (quoted from Wikipedia, but source is unverified)

“But what does this have to do with Bandanna Dee?”. Smash 4 led to a lot of changes that concerned me regarding the new HAL titles after Sakurai’s departure. Only three trophies were available from Kirby’s Return to Dreamland and the only representation from the game was in Kirby’s Final Smash. Bandanna Dee was completely absent from Smash 4, along with representation from any Kirby character, outside of the games Sakurai has developed, in any stage, assist trophy, character or enemy. The only representation from the Dark Matter series (games made by developer Shinichi Shimomura instead of Sakurai, including Kirby’s Dream Land 2 and 3 and Kirby 64: The Crystal Shards) and the post-Sakurai HAL games we have gotten since Brawl are a few music tracks, trophies and stickers. This trend was present in Brawl and we should have expected it.

It is so upsetting to see HAL put in nods to the Smash series with Kirby’s Smash Bros. copy ability and Sakurai giving the HAL not very much respect in return. Sakurai even made Kirby sound effects straight from Kirby’s Adventure and brought back a version of Kirby’s Dream Land on a Game Boy as a stage for Smash 3DS. Sakurai does mention that he planned to add a Kirby’s Epic Yarn stage in but he decided that we get a stage like Wooly World instead? Considering how incredibly bare bones that stage is, I’m concerned about how high a priority Sakurai really felt this was.

I sincerely hope Sakurai gives more respect to the newer Kirby titles in the future. But, unless that has already happened, I have realistic doubts on Bandanna Dee’s inclusion for Smash Switch. Hopefully he’s on the higher end of the popularity scale with Japan (they seem to love Kirby there) regarding the Smash Ballot and hopefully we can get at least one new Kirby rep. I wouldn’t mind seeing Yarn Kirby or Galacta Knight as playable characters if they add something fresh to the game. Kirby Star Allies just released recently and looks promising and Kirby had his 25th Anniversary, so I feel it’s more than due.
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End Rant! Thank you guys for a great first week~

Statistics will be up tomorrow, since I’m drained from writing this. I once again thank SourceGaming for their translations Famistu articles and hope I’ve respected their work. Find their page here: https://sourcegaming.info/ and subscribe to them on Youtube! (I did right before I posted this haha).

 

[Gunla]

Pauline:
Chance - 0.5%
Ahahaha. Let's play with a bit of fire.

Not happening unless we go into the extremely strange timeline of things. Seems ripe for a pic of the day where they show off trophies if you ask me. She's iconic, yes, lots of people know who she is... but she's probably going to be something like a background element for a New Donk City stage of sorts, get the nice trophy render with the classy hat and call it a day.

Unlike all of the other Mario characters, she has not been playable in any real sort of appearance. While this certainly hasn't stopped other characters because of the specific representation of them, the other character for today as well as the other big candidates for Mario/Wario related representatives (since this is the sort of vacuum we are in for today) have had something as far as their own game for themselves.

Want - Abstain

Captain Toad:
Chance - 55%
With a game under his belt and a Switch port on the way (as well as how many cameos at this point?) he's pretty soundly the next pick for a Mario character with not too much competition (assuming Waluigi is wedged into his brother's series, to get technical). Mario's probably going to get another representative because it's Mario and Captain Toad is the fellow who fits the bill nicely. Not a safe lock like other characters but there's a reason a lot of people think of him as a likely character.

Want - 50%
Neutral. I mean, he'd be nice and I think if he got in that'd make a lot of sense, but I care more about other characters.

Nominations: Celica x5

 

[Opossum]

Pauline
Chance - 1%
Want - 0%

You'd need to stretch so much to make something for her with little payoff IMO. She's not integral to Odyssey as a whole like Rosalina was to Galaxy either.

Captain Toad
Chance - 73%
One of the characters I'm more confident in. Sonic can't swim canonically, and canonically Kirby has infinite flight. Sakurai can hand wave the jumping issue by just giving him low jumps and saying he "packed light." He's stretched things harder before (looking at you, "Ness's friends taught him their moves").
Want - 100%
Time for adventure.

Predicting a 43% for Takamaru
Nominating Celica x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Pauline
Chance: 10%
Still more likely than Daisy.

Want: 50%
I'd be interested in seeing what Sakurai does with her, but she's not exactly one of my wanted characters.

Captain Toad
Chance: 55%
Kinda depends on if Sakurai sees a way around his canon inability to jump.

Want: 70%
Not the highest, but this is one of my wanted characters.

 

[Scamper52596]

Pauline

Chance: 6%
I doubt this will happen. She would be much better suited as an Assist Trophy or as a part of a Mario Odyssey stage since her move set potential is lacking. I also don't feel as if she was important enough in Mario Odyssey to warrant being a playable character in the newest Smash Bros. game.

Want: 8%
We've pretty much gotten all of the most important Mario characters already, but if we need to have another I think there are better choices for the time being.


Captain Toad

Chance: 11%
I'm not all that much more confident in Captain Toad either. Like Pauline I feel he would be better as an Assist Trophy or stage element. I don't think he's impossible since Nintendo has been throwing this character into the spotlight more recently, but unless Sakurai finds some inspiration in the idea of Captain Toad I doubt we'll be seeing him become playable.

Want: 15%
I'm not totally against the idea, but I have a hard time feeling interested when thinking about Captain Toad as a playable character. I feel like his inclusion would round off the Mario characters nicely, but that's about it when it comes to appeal for me.

Prediction
Takamaru: 42.3%

Nominations
Concept: Zelda Newcomer x 3
Concept: Indie Character x 2

 

[CodeBlue_]

Pauline:
Chance: 3%

Out of a hundred Sakurais, I might consider three Sakurais from alternate dimensions looking at Pauline in Oddysey and thinking she's a good addition as a playable character. In the other ninety-seven realities, however she will be a background character on the Oddysey stage or maybe only a trophy. Being a playable character is a tall order and I don't think she has it.

Want: 60%

this is the first female character, so let me clarify this now. I have a huge waifu bias. Pauline is 9.5/10 waifu. that is all

Captain Toad:

Chance: 50%

He's from a new title that's coming to the Switch, so hopefully Sakurai respects it. I think there's an equal chance he becomes an assist trophy, however. It really depends on samer-ide's (I'm sorry) preferences and priorities for newcomers this time around.

Want: 60%

Out of potential new Mario characters, he's second behind Paper Mario for the one I want in. I don't think he would be a bad choice, but my hype for him might die down a little once the game releases. Especially if the other newcomers are almost exclusively third parties or new FE, Pokemon, Xenoblade reps.

PREDICTION FOR MY HOME BOY TAKAMARU:
Chance: 47% - Project M's magic number
Want: 74% - same number but reversed

Noms: my girl Lyndis once again for x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Captain Toad

Chance: 35%

I don't think his inability to jump is his biggest issue, they could probably find a way around that. It's that he actually has competition, so do Krool and Ridley but those are from franchises that have two reps each.

Want: 55%

I'd be neat to see how they would handle him.

Pauline

Chance: 5%

Again, the competion is fierce. Doesn't help that she isn't much of a fighter as well. Maaaaaybe they could take a look at the Mario vs DK series for a possible moveset but that's not really what Pauline is known for.

Want: 10%

I'd take her over Daisy atleast.

Predictions: Takumaru 23,9%

Nominations: Hades x3 Pacman x2

 

[Pacack]

Pauline

Chance: .5%
Respectfully, the character has nothing going for her.

Want: Abstain
I have no investment in the character.

Captain Toad

Chance: 85%
Easily the newcomer I'm most confident in predicting. Having appeared in every mainline Mario game since Galaxy and with a spinoff series to his name, I would be shocked to see him left out. The 15% chance of him not making the cut is only there because Sakurai might get caught up on the no jumping thing, but I'm confident that he can make something work.

Want: 90%
Not my most wanted, but he's cute and I love Toad, so I support him.

Predictions:
Takamaru Chance: 37.8% Want: 40.5%

Nomination: Concept - Historical Character x5 (ala Mr. Game and Watch or R.O.B.)

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

B. Stuff that's really similar might be nice to do on the same day, like toad and captain toad, and concepts or characters that would make for boring days on their own.

 

[MrBill0327]

Pauline

Chance- 0% : No reason to include her as a character. Most likely will be assist trophey or just a trophey


Want: Not wanted at all


Captain Toad


Chance- 90%- He is getting a new game on the switch and toad is a huge part of mario.


Want- 98%- Toad is my favorite mario character tied with luigi so ive wanted toad to be in for a long time

 

[Organization XIII]

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocratically choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.

C would be best as that gives us the best chance to rate noms that aren't popular.

Pauline Chance: 0%
Seriously, not going to happen outside of being the shock character a la Wii Fit Trainer.

Want: 0%
If she gets in I won't be mad or complain, I mean a new character is always a good thing; however, it certainly wouldn't break my heart if she never appeared.

Captain Toad Chance: 50%
It could happen. He's a new established character in the Marioverse and he's not worthless like a regular Toad, but I'm not sure he's fit for Smash. I mean he can't jump though they could always handwave that away. Also, I'm sure what moveset he could even have. I gave him a 50 because he has most things going for him but it really comes down to whether the devs view him as necessary, so it could go either way.

Want: 50%
I really liked his game but I don't care if makes it all that much. I'd personally rather have Treasure Tracker 2 than him in Smash, but I'm curious to see how they would implement him, besides he'd be better than a dumb regular toad.

Noms: Tethu X5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Pauline

Chances 5%: She just isn't very likely.
Want 15%: It only kind of be cool if she was added but she really doesn't deserve it more than others.

Toad

Chances 55%: Among the most reoccurring characters in the Mario franchise. Still don't know how many really want him compared to other Mario characters.
Want 60%: He does kind of deserve to be in Smash Bros.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[farvin111]

Captain Toad Chance: 80%

Between having a game in the Wii U era (which I feel Sakurai will pull from mostly) and a Switch port, and also having a not-insignificant role in the flagship game Mario Odyssey, this is (Captain) Toad's best chance yet for a Smash game. There are very, very few non third party characters that are iconic and well-known that haven't been added yet, and not only that but Captain Toad also has that unique factor that Sakurai (somewhat) requires. I'm honestly pretty confident about him, as he fits so many criteria and has everything going right for him.

Captain Toad Want: 80%

Great game, great character. That's all.

Pauline Chance: 15%

Being historically significant and having a role in a flagship game does a lot for your chances. In fact, without Odyssey, I'd give her a near zero chance. There are some other small factors giving her points in her favor too. For one, she could be a DK rep if Sakurai so chooses, which would help out that series in terms of reps. Also, she's female, which is always a plus.

Pauline Want: 30%

She could be interesting, but I wouldn't be too heartbroken if she doesn't make it in.

Takamaru Prediction: 62.13%

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

E) actually sounds kind of fun. I'd vote for that or C).

 

[YoshiandToad]

Pauline:

Chance: 5%
Mario Odyssey was a huge success and she was Nintendo's first leading lady in Donkey Kong(albeit she was blonde and wore a pink dress and nothing like her current character).

However her next big appearance was Mario vs. Donkey Kong: March of the Minis 2, a game that appeared 12 years after the Game Boy release of Donkey Kong first depicted her as a brunette. That's a long leave of absense, and although she's appeared in every Mario Vs, Donkey Kong game since, the series itself is rather minor considering it's stars are such big characters.

Want: 0%
At this stage when we still have the likes of Daisy, Waluigi and today's other candidate I can't say the idea of her getting in before them thrills me. She could have cappy, but Captain Toad also COULD jump. Once those three(and maybe Paper Mario) are in, I'd consider her a decent choice.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 65%

One of the most recognisable characters in the world(with a headlamp), his game is very cute and fun, and it was one of the only Wii U games with a new IP. He's also been in every single mainstream Mario game since he's creation and often has a large role within it.

Since people counted the K. Rool Mii outfit as a reason to up his chance, I don't see why the inclusion of a Toad outfit doesn't do similar to the Captain since it'd showcase the overall popularity of Toad. People have also used 'being revealed in the same direct' as a reason to promote Sans, so again where's the harm?

Downside is Toad's been passed over before so there's a chance Sakurai does the same for the Captain despite him having his own game and two deluxe versions coming to Switch and 3DS.

Want: 100%

If I could give more than 100% I would. He's my number one pick(axe) as I feel Toad is one of the last video game icons yet to be included, and he's clearly his own character despite the ever popular 'he's generic' argument. Outside the hardcore Smash fanbase, he's got a good amount of fans thanks to his own IP being introduced,

Concern about him not being able to jump in a game that requires jumping I can get, but his game is not all about 'not being able to jump' it's also about stage manipulation to solve the puzzles and get Captain Toad to where he needs to be.
There's a few ways they could implement jumping such as propeller platforms being spawned underneath him that raise up to represent that aspect of Treasure Tracker which is no weirder than say; Olimar's flying Pikmin appearing from no where, Villager suddenly becoming Balloon Fighter or Bowser Jr using his mode of transport as a cannon, having it be destroyed and then instantly respawn.

Alternatively, why not have very short hops(due to the backpack weight) for the first two jumps and do an Olimar, getting a Flaptor to lift him for the Up + B by his backpack representing not only his hapless nature, but also the very beginning of the game as a Toad is kidnapped by Wingo, who is of course; a giant bird.

A potted piranha plant tether rope or the minecart are also good ways to get Captain Toad around the unable to jump if you really wanted to keep that aspect as both are used within his game.

At the start of many levels Toad is also shot out of a cannon onto the stage, so there's not exactly a lack of up and B abilities.

Alternatively, Sakurai could just do as Opossum suggests here;

One of the characters I'm more confident in. Sonic can't swim canonically, and canonically Kirby has infinite flight. Sakurai can hand wave the jumping issue by just giving him low jumps and saying he "packed light." He's stretched things harder before (looking at you, "Ness's friends taught him their moves").

A heavyweight small fighter with great ground speed and poor aerial options doesn't sound too bad to me. Helps I want to run characters over with minecarts and hit them with pickaxes.

Takamaru prediction: 67%
(The retro pick of choice for everyone on these boards it seems)

Nominations:
5 X Concept: Zelda Newcomer

 

[FrozenRoy]

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

C is probably my favorite, because it would allow things which otherwise never make it to the top to pop up and give us some surprise picks. B is fun and A is the least disruptive. I would really not like E, as I am not especially interested in a lot of stage ratings, and I would argue nobody nominating them when we have concepts nominated means many people are not as interested either.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Captain Toad chances: 28%
A few years ago I predicted that Captain Toad would become the next important figure of modern Mario, in a similar way to how Bowser Jr. and Rosalina did. So did he? I'm not confident about it yet, but after CT:TT, getting in as a recurring NPC in SMO is a step in the right direction I guess. The game CT:TT itself is not supposed to be a huge release compared to something like BotW and SMO, and the recently announced ports probably won't have much of an effect on his chances - their development likely started after that Sakurai decided the roster for Smash Switch.

He has some advantages on his side, like already having a model in Smash (he could be made after Peach's Toad), and most notably being the best possible representative of an iconic species with his own characteristics and themes to take moveset ideas from - I don't think Sakurai would go as far as making him completely unable to jump, the official reason why he can't jump is because of his backpack, so I think a unique mechanic would be to make him a weight-flexible character who can throw away things from his backpack to become lighter and become able to jump and run faster (and also gets KOed more easily).

Overall Captain Toad is in a somewhat awkward position, and while I think he has a realistic shot at being considered, I feel that the limited number of available first-party newcomer slots and his likeliness to get lower priority than other characters, eventually might cause him (and his alt Toadette) to miss the game.

Captain Toad want: 68%
I never really liked the idea of "vanilla" Toad - like the one used in Peach's neutral B - as a playable Smash character because I just find it boring; Captain Toad on the other hand seems more interesting and engaging to me, I feel like he's the perfect opportunity to have a playable Toad with a central fighting theme and feeling. I already imagine some tilts, aerials and the dash attack with a pickaxe, smash attacks with a potted piranha plant, a dazzling light from his headlamp that can stun enemies (yeah I know basically a copy of Mewtwo's Disable), throwing away gems from his backpack (which can serve as offensive projectiles) to become lighter and then digging the ground with his pickaxe to find gems back once he runs out of them, among other moves. He would be an explorator-themed character with in-battle modulable physics and thus would feel particularly unique, and he has in my opinion just enough caliber as a notable Mario character to warrant consideration for a playable slot, that's why I'm interested in the idea. However, I haven't actually played the games where he's playable, preventing me to go particularly higher than that in want, although seeing him as an Odyssey NPC was a pleasant surprise.

Pauline chances: abstain
Pauline want: abstain
I just went on her page on MarioWiki and read the Super Mario Odyssey section and stopped reading when I started realizing there were spoilers for late game I haven't reached yet, so I prefer to abstain before giving an opinion.

Takamaru prediction: 45.26%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x4
Returning game mode: Smash Run x1

 

[fogbadge]

ive been waiting for this one, captain toad

chances: 30% i can give you plenty of reasons why he (or any toad) should be in smash, but i think someone o the smash team has it out for all toads

want: 100% still my top number one choice for newcomer and that aint changing until hes in smash

might as well, pauline:

chances: 40% for some reason it seems like the kind of thing theyd do but at the same time she could easily be a background character

want: 10% she might be fun to play as but im not to bothered