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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Lord-Zero

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Isabelle (Animal Crossing)

Chance: 80%

- She’s popular. Very, very popular. She’s a Nintendo icon already.

Want: 15%

- Not a priority but I wouldn’t be upset.

Prediction

Micaiah: 7.5%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x1
 

Ura

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Is She Really A Bell? :confused:

Chance: 80%

I feel her inclusion in this Smash is very likely with Animal Crossing being a major Nintendo franchise and her being the most popular character among AC characters.

Want: 10%

I'm not interested in seeing more Animal Crossing characters. I feel Villager represents the franchise just fine on his own.

Prediction: Micaiah

Chance: 3.4%
Want: 9%

Nominations

Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X 5
 

BluePikmin11

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@Sid-cada Munomario777 Munomario777 You both bring good points moveset-wise. I would like to point out Muno's point about Isabelle's pacifism. Her having a defensive stage control playstyle is appropriate to her personality and characterization. I personally think that by having Isabelle shying away, it makes her more stand out as a fighter. It would be as wacky of an idea as Wii Fit Trainer unironically using fitness as a form of combat. And in the context of Smash being a party fighting game, she would be a really fun addition. It would not matter if she looked stupid shying away, that would be part of Isabelle's charm as a fighter.
 

colder_than_ice

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Isabelle
Chance: 45% - Easily ranks as one of the most likely possible newcomers. She’s practically Nintendo’s second mascot given how much advertising she’s gotten.
Want: 70%

Micaiah prediction: 2%

Nominations: Azura x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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Ok so the calcs for Geno will be tomorrow since I want to give the winner a whole day to use their noms.

Isabelle

50% Chance

Nintendo is pushing this **** zhu far. She is incredibly marketable, and that helps. Moveset issues might hold her back though.

Abstain Want

Never played AC.

Nominating Spyro x5

Day Over, calcs will be posted in the morning, cutoff is 630 AM EDT
 
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Icedragonadam

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Isabelle

Chance: 30%

Want: 40%

She's a very popular character and is definitely requested, but it depends on if Sakurai sees moveset potential in her, especially if Sakurai continues with unique quirks for the newcomers.

Micaiah Prediction: 8.41%

Nominate

Lucas x2
Mewtwo x3
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

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Isabelle

Chance: 50%

She is the new face, we get it. But who knows.

Want: 30%

Not Nook nor Resetti. Sorry.

Micaiah Prediction: 8%

Nominations: Sans x5
 

Smasher 101

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Isabelle

Chance: 70%


The only real argument against her is that she might not be enough of a fighter, which I'm not convinced is that strong of an argument at this point. She's got everything else going for her, really; Animal Crossing is a huge franchise, she's one of the characters that got both an assist trophy and a Mii costume in 4, she's been heavily advertised, she's very popular, and she's pretty much become the animal face of her series at this point. If Sakurai thinks he can work with another Animal Crossing fighter, she's in, and given everything I think he'd be more likely go for it than not.

Want: 100%

The only newcomer I really want that I'm fairly confident in so I'm pulling for her. I really like Animal Crossing and Villager was my favorite newcomer last time so I'd like another character from it, and I think she's the best choice. I really like her as a character, and I imagine I'd enjoy any moveset they give her. Just don't make her an alternate costume and we're good.

Micaiah prediction: 7.48%

Nominations: Bomberman x5
 

smileMasky

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Isabelle

Chance:0%
I Don't see her getting a fighting spot. The villages has the whole thing covered. I just don't understand why she would take a fighting spot. Her place is more deserved as an assist trophy just like smash 4.

Want:0%
Honestly I do like my fair share of characters and I have NLC but I don't understand what she would bring that is not covered by the villages.

Nomination: Django x5
 
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ZealousGamer

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Isabelle

Chance 50%: Possible.

Want 40%: I'd rather have some other character from a more deserving franchise.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x
 

Opossum

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Isabelle

Chance:0%
I Don't see her getting a fighting spot. The villages has the whole thing covered. I just don't understand why she would take a fighting spot. Her place is more deserved as an assist trophy just like smash 4.

Want:0%
Honestly I do like my fair share of characters and I have NLC but I don't understand what she would bring that is not covered by the villages.

Nomination: Django x5
Terraforming, for one. Her role as assistant mayor gives her control of ordinances and public works projects, allowing her to control the stage through buildable constructs. Totally in-character and something Villager doesn't do at all outside of Timber at best.
 

wildvine47

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Isabelle

Chance: 40% - I never really thought of her as fighter material until this game's hype period, and even now I'm not fully convinced. Sure she could do the terraforming/object placement idea, but I think there's a big, important difference between Villager having item hammerspace and Isabelle suddenly becoming a public-works-spawning reality bender in terms of representing their characters. She's certainly popular and has shot to the forefront of the Animal Crossing series, but she absolutely doesn't scream "fighter" to me and the terraforming idea doesn't really convince me much. All she does is cordon off the area for a project in Animal Crossing anyways, it's not like she builds them herself. If anyone does it it's the gyroid you pour money into. That popularity level can't be ignored, but I personally think she's more likely to stay an assist.

Want: 10% - Villager reps the series fine on their own. No they don't rep everything, but not every part of the series needs to be represented. We don't need Kicks added to represent the fact that you can buy shoes or Luna to represent it's Wi-Fi connectivity. I'm also not really a big fan of the series in general. A bit too slow and boring for my tastes, but diff strokes diff blokes.

Prediction

Micaiah: 8.12% - She's a semi-lord from an old news FE game that Ike is already currently representing. Anyone not named Lyn or Celica or *INSERT FE16 PROTAG NAME HERE* is dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.

Nominations

Impa x 5
 

smileMasky

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Terraforming, for one. Her role as assistant mayor gives her control of ordinances and public works projects, allowing her to control the stage through buildable constructs. Totally in-character and something Villager doesn't do at all outside of Timber at best.
That could be neat but I can't really see that without it getting ridicules even for smash standards yes you can argue she can even pull some furniture. But it will start to feel like a Frankenstein moveset.That will just make her a Joke Character and that would really IMHO compromise her Character(Even though I See the Villager as one). She is Fine as an Assist representing her role in her respective game.
 

Troykv

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Prediction

Micaiah: 8.12% - She's a semi-lord from an old news FE game that Ike is already currently representing. Anyone not named Lyn or Celica or *INSERT FE16 PROTAG NAME HERE* is dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.
I'm doing this mostly because I want to share my opinions, and see people that would actually like the idea.
 

Koopaul

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Isabelle

Chance: 20%
If Animal Crossing gets another character it would probably be her. However. I don't think Animal Crossing is going to get another character. Villager represents the series fine on his own. It's not like AC is an adventure hero game where there are numberous heroes with cool powers. It's just a slice of life simulator and Villager shows all that off in his moveset.

Want: 10%
People keep bringing up terraforming in her moveset but I'd much prefer Dr. Wright or Mallo (from Pushmo) to do something like that.

Predictions for Micaiah
Abstain

Nominations
Barbara the bat ×3
Slime ×2
 

MrElectroG64

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Isabelle

Chance: 1%
She has no potential for a moveset. Plain and simple.

Want: 0%
I have no real ties to the Animal Crossing series, and I can't even see her having a moveset. Not to mention, if Animal Crossing gets a second rep, series like Pikmin better get one too.


Nominations: Fawful x5
 
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Koopaul

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No potential moveset? Litterally any character can be given a moveset if they really wanted them to have one. Look at R.O.B., look at Captain Falcon, look at a ton of other characters.

With enough imagination, you can give a moveset to anyone. But, of course, certain characters are easier to come up with a new moveset than others obviously. And certain movesets proposed for a character might actually make more sense with another character. A lot of stuff I see proposed to Isabelle seem like they fit more naturally with other Nintendo characters.
 

andimidna

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Isabelle:
While any character can be given a moveset, each new character should bring forward some sort of fresh idea, which is what I wasn’t sure she had until the posts above. I haven’t played the series so I just didn’t know what could be done, but the defense/building/pacifist fighter idea is sound
Chance: 49%
I just barely can’t say I’m banking on it
Want: abstain
Talking animals kinda creep me out tbh
I was gonna say I want her but idk

Micaiah prediction: 7%
I know how it feels to still support a character that should’ve been in Brawl. You Micaiah fans aren’t alone : (

x3 Veronica
x2 Azura
 

-crump-

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Isabelle

Chance: 45%
Another high-ish score. Isabelle is arguably Animal Crossing’s mascot at this point; she appears in everything, she has an appealing design and personality, and she’s popular with AC fans. Besides that, I think Animal Crossing is a big enough series to recieve two characters, and I genuinely don’t understand why people are saying she doesn’t have moveset potential.

That said, I think she’s one of the few characters that actually make perefect sense as an Assist Trophy. She’s a helper, not a fighter, and with that in mind I could see Sakurai keeping Isabelle where she is.

Want: 100%
ISABELLE IS CUUUUUUUUUUUUUUTE
Yes, please. Isabelle has grown on me a lot in the past few years, and I would be more than happy to play as her in a Smash game. I feel she has earned the title of “Nintendo Icon”.
Animal Crossing is one of my favorites, but Villager never clicked with me in Smash. I’d love to have a different character from that series to play as.

Noms:
Tingle x5
 
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Munomario777

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Munomario777 Munomario777 You both bring good points moveset-wise. I would like to point out Muno's point about Isabelle's pacifism. Her having a defensive stage control playstyle is appropriate to her personality and characterization. I personally think that by having Isabelle shying away, it makes her more stand out as a fighter. It would be as wacky of an idea as Wii Fit Trainer unironically using fitness as a form of combat. And in the context of Smash being a party fighting game, she would be a really fun addition. It would not matter if she looked stupid shying away, that would be part of Isabelle's charm as a fighter.
It makes her stand out, but not in a good way I reckon. Unless the idea is to paint her as some sort of demented serial killer who looks innocent on the surface, her having "accidental" attacks just doesn't make any sense, since the player is gonna be directing her to beat up the other characters and whatnot. I just think it'd look really stupid and forced lmao.

Wii Fit is a different case, since she's not trying to avoid combat; it's pretty clear that she's just using yoga as her way of fighting. With Isabelle, her character trait is directly against Smash's core gameplay, so to fit her into the game, you have to incorporate all these forced "accidental" animations and whatnot. Maybe that's a sign that she's not quite equipped for a fighting game? The way I see it anyway. :shrug:
 

BluePikmin11

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It is not so much 'accidental' that I picture Isabelle when she plays, but mostly being a bit shy and nervous when directly attacking characters in general. In that way, I do not see it as forced, and it fits with her character well.
 

Graizen

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Isabelle
Chances:
30%
Want: 80%

For me only she would look cool on Smash Bros as second AC representative.

Nomination: Agumon x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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Geno
27.31% Chance
43.75% Want

Geno has had his chances raise since smash 4, but he is still seen as a bit too niche. His want score was quite divisive, interesting.

Isabelle
46.08% Chance
41.76% Want

Isabelle boots Celica out of the top ten of chance, but she clearly is more expected than wanted.

Ura Ura get the 5 noms for Geno, @GoodGrief741 gets 5 noms for Isabelle.


Today we have the star of Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn, Micaiah. Please rate her in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Lana tomorrow.
 

Dr. Jojo Phantasma

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Micaiah
Chance: 0%
Sometimes you have to be tough on the ones you love.. She is way past her relevance, and while she has some popularity, Lyn, Azura and even Chrom have her beat in CYL1. Not to mention that Ike is already representing her game well it is actually HIS game. There is no dawn for this priestess unfortunately.

Want: 60%
I like her and supported her once in the Pre-Brawl days, but I prefer Azura, Lyn and Celica.

Lana: 22.35%

X5 to Simon Belmont
 

Troykv

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It's finally her day! It's Micaiah's time!

Let's begin




____________________

The Chances.

Micaiah is a character in a hard position for a playable spot because she doesn't have the same recency that a character like (nowadays) Celica has, but Micaiah has some stuff on her side I would like to post some of them.

Micaiah is filled with niches and gimmicks that hadn't be replicate together, and she of course, is one of the Fire Emblem Main Characters.





1.- Micaiah is a user of Magic (Light Magic)
In the Fire Emblem Series exists different Light Magic Tomes, and like the anima tomes there exists tomes with different functions like being highly powerful but make you vulnerable (Aura), Long-Range Magic (Purge) and of course there are the ol'reliable ones that doesn't have particular disadvantages or advantages...

"But Robin alredy does the magic stuff"

Robin is more like a Mystical Knight, or whatever you think is the main focus in the moveset, the magic is a part of important of their gimmick, but they are essencially sword-user in most of their animations; Micaiah is a complete magic user that doesn't use swords, and she doesn't need them anyway; in fact, the lack of a sword make Micaiah more flexible in the way she can use the animations of her attacks to create some unusual hitboxes not possible with a weapon that is attached to the user.

But Magic isn't limited just to flashy movements, Micaiah also has in her side other way of using her power.





2.- Micaiah is a user of the Utility-Based Magical Staves.
The staves are one of the most useful tools you can find in a Fire Emblem because of their special uses. There are some very straighforward like the ones that heals HP or Status Ailments. But there are also some that offer many possibilities; Warping and Rescuing Units can be used to move units at positions that would otherwise being impossible, making them key to create powerful strategies to beat even the hardest maps.

Micaiah is the only lord that is actually associated (but not as much as the Light Magic) with Staves, and they're one of the key elements in the franchise (the Staves and their strategies are as old as FE1) that would be represented in some way.






3.- Micaiah's signature abilities.
Alongside the more well known use of Magic and Staves that appear across the series; Micaiah has her own abilities beyond these. Micaiah has Corona (also know as: Dawn Light), that is the name of the Micaiah's Proc Skill that does additional damage (more specifically, ignores the enemy's Magic Resistence) and can blind the enemies affected; in her game she isn't the only character that uses this skill, but unless you're very unlucky (getting Corona'd by Lekain or Sephiran), it's unlikely you ended up seeing someone using the ability that isn't her.

When casting Corona, Micaiah creates a light sphere above her.

Micaiah also has another abilitiy, and this one is completely unique to her: Sacrifice (also known as: Healing Hands), this is a tricky skill, it's effect (as their names would indicate), is a healing skill that gives HP to other units; quite interesting




Also, Micaiah has her own personal magic tome: Thani, which would be an important element of how Micaiah would work in Smash Bros.

I did for Source Gaming a moveset exploring many of these ideas: http://sourcegaming.info/2016/12/22/ds-micaiah/

After explaining the gameplay stuff, the things that would interest Sakurai for a new character, it's time to explore other points; the things that helps or damages her chances.

Let's start with the negatives.

Micaiah hasn't have a new appearance in a Main Game since Awakening, and that was essencially a cameo; Micaiah most notable appearance in the last years was in the Fire Emblem Heroes some months ago (January 2018) and her moment as a Main Character being in Radiant Dawn 11 years ago (February 2007)

She is evidently behind some other people for a spot in the next Smash Bros; whoever is the New Fire Emblem Character from that Switch Game, and there would be another choices to consider too.

These are quite heavy problems, but Micaiah still has some things in her side.

Now the positives.




Something important for a character selection, it's stand out in the roster; Micaiah has a similar anime aesthetic to the rest of the Fire Emblem Character, so, isn't hard to see a which franchises she belongs, but the rest of her design makes her feel completely different from the usual Fire Emblem protags.

Also, related with her design, being a original female character kind of helps I guess.

Micaiah surprisingly got some support during the ballot time, as it was show for the Source Gaming Posts about it... Nothing super special, but the support actually exists.

And the last thing to consider... it's the Smash Bros Switch Weird timing; that ended ups hurting heavily the Fire Emblem Switch Protag, we don't even know if the game will still be released in 2018 (as DLC is practically is likely if the character is unique enough)

And so, I decided to give her a 15% Chance rate... she is definitely unlikely, but she just can't be ignored, the potential is here, waiting to be found.

______________

The Want

Micaiah is very important to me, she is the light that guided me to don't be a lazy person all the time; after knowing her, I start feeling a special attachment to her, even before I played her game, and I was already thinking how she would work as a Smash Character, and then... when I finally played her game; against my own fears of ended up don't like her; essencially signed for life my love for Micaiah. Now I dedicate to write and share stuff to show how Micaiah would work in Smash Bros, to help other people understand her character, and in general share Micaiah Love.




Maybe in the past I would have give 100% to other characters, but nowadays the only character I want with a burning passion is her. I love Micaiah in every way possible, I love her simple but extremely stylish and beautiful design, I love her character, I found her quite a charming person with many interesting aspects to see when you read the story, and of course, I love the fact she is a spellcaster unlike most of the Main Characters, I love my magic-based stuff in every single game I played.

_____________________________________

Prediction:

Lana: 9.9%

Nominations:

KOS-MOS x5
 

Ura

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Meek Augh! (see what I did there?) :smirk:

Chance: 1%

Micaiah's time has long passed. If she were ever going to be included, it would have been in Brawl and they already added Ike in that game. With FE fatigue at it's highest and her relevance being long gone, it makes no sense to include her.

Want: 0.1%

No.

Prediction: Lana

Chance: 5%
Want: 28%

Nominations
(extra noms hype!)

Ayumi Tachibana X 5
Masked Link X 3
Concept: Wars CO X 2
 

Opossum

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Micaiah

Chance: 0%
Gotta be honest here, she's far from a priority even within her own franchise. Even in Fire Emblem Heroes, she was the second to last main lord added, right as the game was approaching the one year mark. I think that says a lot.

Want: 2%
I actually really like Micaiah as a character, and think she was a far better character in Radiant Dawn than Ike was. The issue is her addition would basically mean some of my most wanted characters wouldn't get in, so...yeah.

Predicting a 3.3 for Lana
Nominating English Marth x5
 
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slambros

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Micaiah

Chance: 10%
Lots of things are against her; she's lost relevancy, and she's got a lot of competition.

Want: 100%
She was one of the first characters to really catch my eye when I first became enthused by Smash speculation. I'm definitely willing to root for her.

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x5

:171:
 

Munomario777

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Fire Emblem newcomer whose name starts with the letter M and who is apparently a girl, oops

Chance: 0.5%. From what I gather, she's a character long past her heyday, from a series that Sakurai is already worried about overrepresenting.

Want: 1%. No attachment whatsoever.



Predictions

Lana: 7.3%. Kind of a decent pick for a Zelda newcomer? Just because of Hyrule Warriors's ongoing relevancy and all. Kind of a strange one, though.



Nominations: Snip + Clip x5
 

Parallel_Falchion

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Micaiah
Chance: 6%
It's unfortunate, but she took forever to even get into Heroes. Oddly, her popularity actually seems stronger now than it was when her game released, but she's not getting into Smash without some sort of remake or remaster of Radiant Dawn, which is highly unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Want: 90%
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn was my favorite game of all time for years and only recently might have been beaten, but it will always have a place in my heart, and Micaiah along with it. Plus, she'd be more unique than most FE options, being a full mage. However, there are a couple FE characters I would prefer to her.
 

colder_than_ice

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Micaiah
Chance: 0% - I’m sorry but I can’t see this happening at all. IS has completely abandoned giving any support to the Tellius saga outside of Ike, which unfortunately isn’t surprising given how poorly they sold. She’s also been largely rejected from spinoffs and was the second to last main character in the series to be added to Heroes.
Want: 70% - I have mixed feelings about her personally, but Radiant Dawn was my very first FE game, and still probably my favourite. I’d love to see it get more recognition and Micaiah would admittedly likely have a very unique move pool.

Lana prediction: 8%

Nominations: Azura x5
 
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Organization XIII

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Chance: 0%
I really don't see her making it into the game as playable

Want: 50%
I like Radiant Dawn and she was cool so if she made it I wouldn't be upset but I have other characters I'd actually like to see.

noms: Qbby X5
 

ProfPeanut

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Micaiah

Chance: 18%
She missed the bus, and then the bus got buried under the Fates-wakening fandom. She might've been our Celica nomination back in the Brawl days, but now there's more Fire Emblem continents than there are Fire Emblem roster slots, and Tellius already has a representative. She's similar to Lyn in that she's a popular female lord, except her story and movepool are a lot more unique, yet her popularity is a lot, well, less.

Want: 23%
Mages with troubled pasts can be fun, but she's no frontrunner for me. Which is a shame, since she might've had more tools for a good moveset than Celica, but series representation should always go around first.


Prediction:
Lana: 9%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5
 
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BluePikmin11

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It is very hard to imagine Micaiah becoming playable at this point, much like with Anna. Like I said before, at best, the FE newcomer will be chosen heavily based on promotion. Celica has the edge in this regard. Even then, that promotional scenario is somewhat unlikely and I do not see any new FE promotional characters coming unless they are last-minute clones. Micaiah is just too far from the FE spectrum to be considered at all. The time has past.

x5 Tom Nook
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Micaiah

Chance: 2%

After reading Troykv Troykv 's post maybe I could see it happening but a lack of relevancy and recognizability will hurts her even more than it does Anna. I don't even think I've ever even heard of this character outside these forums and that should be saying something.

Want: 0%
Same song and dance for me.

Predictions for Lana: 5.99%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x5
 

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
Micaiah chances: 0.01%
I'm feeling generous giving her one hundredth of a percent rather than a flat zero as I simply don't see a reason why she would be seriously considered. She doesn't seem to be a hugely standing-out candidate among Fire Emblem characters and even if she somehow gets considered, she would certainly be among the lowest priority characters, even if the unlikely case that FE16 happens to be a Tellius 2-1 remake or something.

Micaiah want: 0%
Although Radiant Dawn was my first FE game, I don't feel like she really has a reason to be playable in Smash at this point, nor do I love her to the point I'd want her in personally. An Assist Trophy would be nice, if anything.

Lana prediction: 6.20%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x4
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x1
 
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