Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[colder_than_ice]

There was a second one done later. I won't pretend to know the details, I assume that the top 2 in each of Heroes and Heroines from the first poll weren't in the new poll, and dont know why the Echoes characters weren't big in the first, but they make up for it in the second.

That is correct. The four winners in the 2017 poll were not eligible in 2018 poll because they had already won special alternate forms in Fire Emblem Heroes (The very purpose of the polls was to hand those out). The reason why Echoes characters did poorly in the first poll was because Echoes was not out yet at the time, and we didn't know much about its characters other than what little we knew about their appearance in the original 1992 8-bit Japan exclusive game.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Celica

Chance: 9%

Well, she’s sorta relevant thanks to SoV and she’s become pretty popular because of it.

Want: 0.5%

No, not really interested. Robin does what she already does with more elemental variety.

Andy

Chance: 4%

The series seems to be quite dead at the moment.

Want: 10%

He’d certainly be unique but he’s not a priority for me.

Nominations

Black Shadow x3
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x2

 

[PK_Wonder]

Quite unfortunately I had a lot to say and not much time to do it.

Celica Chances 25%
Want 40%

Andy 16%
Want 100%

Nominations:
Toad x3
Mach Rider x2

 

[AvionFinch]

Celica

Chance: 70%

The most likely FE newcomer IMO. The roster was probably finalized at the latest somewhere in early 2017. Early 2017 was a very interesting time for FE, Heroes and the Echoes series of remakes were introduced. With those two games, the more legacy FE characters got a lot more attention. Celica is in a spot where she would be both from the most recent FE game, AND a legacy character. When it comes to and interesting moveset, I feel compared to Robin, she would have much more of a magic focus. Alongside that, as many have suggested, she'd also have Gaiden/SoV's magic system of health costs as a gimmick. I'd see her having some weakish sword attacks but then really devastating or utility magic based attacks. The only real problems I see for her is either A, Sakurai decides to chill it with the FE characters, or B, IntSys had the Main Lord of FE16 thought up quite a bit beforehand and handed it over and requested Sakurai put it in.

Want: 85%

I've been internally debating lately if Celica or Lyn was my most wanted FE character, but I think Celica has baaarely edged her out for me (might have to go update my top 10).

Andy

Chance: 19%

Advance Wars has been dormant for a while now, and that's a shame, honestly I feel like Brawl was the best chance for a character from it, aside from some crazy revival.

Want: 65%

I'd prefer Sami, but Andy's cool in my book.

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x 5

Hmm, I waaaander who will be tomorrow.

 

[Ura]

Not sure if you'll answer this question, but is Layton among these surprise characters for tomorrow?

Because if he is, I'm not going to happy. I haven't even written prepared my essay-long post for him yet.

------

Nominations

Assuming Layton isn't going to be rated tomorrow...

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

Layton is still below 2-3 characters. His day will come sometime this week.

 

[Basty]

Celica

Chances: 70%
I think that she's really likely. She's one of the more popular FE characters atm (see the CYL polls for FE Heroes) and her magic abilities are different to robins. Could be fun and unique

Want: 100%
One of my favourite FE characters, by far

Andy

Chance: 60%
I'm gonna over inflate his chances as Advance Wars is one of the only big series not represented in smash. His infantry style gameplay could be unique and I can see Sakurai biting the bullet on this series that hasn't seen a game in a while

Want: 100%
I miss Advance Wars, so much.

Doom Guy x3
Jeanne x2

 

[FrozenRoy]

Excellent read for the majority of this rating, but this part really made me think...

Roy is often claimed to be an unpopular character with FE fans, and I cannot tell if this is the truth or not? I'm 90% sure his popularity is because he's in Smash Bros. to begin with, but he did come second on that "Choose Your Legend" popularity poll losing only to Ike in the male catogary, and handily beating fan favourite Hector, Marth(even when you add up both his scores to 24, 547) Chrom, as well as Male Robin and Male Corrin by a sizable chunk.

If Marth, Robin and Corrin weren't also in Smash I'd understand this outcome for an unpopular lord in the series proper, but considering Marth is THE face of Smash Bros. Fire Emblem and Robin and Corrin both offer superior moveset diversity to Roy, I have to question exactly where Roy got all these votes if he's not popular?

More on topic with today's character; bizarrely neither Celica or Alm appear to have made it on the list despite the majority of these votes going to recent games.

Anyone with more intell on this able to explain? Celica seems to have a fan base so I'm really perplexed.

From what I can tell, a 2nd poll had Roy drop off. The other thing is that Roy's popularity has had a recent spike because of being in Smash Brothers and being DLC to boot, plus he is an internet meme due to Smash AKA more likely to do good on polls like this.

The other thing is that FE6 is considered popular in Japan (which the poll will be biased towards) while it is not very popular in the west, which colors perception. AFAIK Roy is solidly popular in Japan for his game while this is not true in the west. He also has the downside of not being especially good as a unit.

Robin and Marth also have to contend with some level of votesplit. For example, Marth has multiple things to pick. On top of that, though, Marth and Robin have multiple characters from their games pop up (AKA competition for fans of the game), while Roy...doesn't. Compare The Blazing Blade having 3 characters to Roy's 1 for example, or how Binding Blade has 0 female characters. Basically if you liked Binding Blade, you voted Roy. If you like Awakening, Fates etc you had a lot of potential options commonly. Vote split.

 

[Ura]

Hmm...

Today's April Fools and we're on Page 69.

...this can only end so well...

 

[Kitty-chan]

Celica

Chance: 55%
Most likely FE character to join smash with Echos release nya.

Want: 80%
My most wanted FE character nya.


Andy

Chance: 5%
Dead nya. Dead as a doorknob nya. So dead that it died after nyalready being dead nya. But some people still want it, so who nyos nya!

Want: 50%
I'd forgotten AW existed till nyao nya, never played the games either mew. But it's nyabout war so... a character from it seems fine to me nya


Nyominations nyaaa
Waluigi x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Celica

Chance: 60%

I think we are going to get a Fire Emblem newcomers, and out of potential candidates, I think Celica has the best shot of making it into Smash Bros. Switch. She's the most popular character from the most recent game, and there is plenty she could do without overlapping with Robin.

Want: 80%

Like Lyn, Fire Emblem's oversaturation brings this down a bit, but she is still one of my favorite lords.

Andy

Chance: 1%

The only way I could see this happening is if Intelligent Systems is secretly working on an Advanced Wars game, and I just don't see that happening.

Want: 70%

No connections to the series, but I do feel like he deserves to have been included by now.

Nominating Waluigi x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

More on topic with today's character; bizarrely neither Celica or Alm appear to have made it on the list despite the majority of these votes going to recent games.

Anyone with more intell on this able to explain? Celica seems to have a fan base so I'm really perplexed.

Originally, Alm and Celica ranked very poorly, because the Fire Emblem Gaiden (the game they come from) remake had not been released yet. On the original poll, Alm ranked 66th on the Male's side, and Celica ranked 69th on the Female's side.

However, just this year, after their remakes had been released and they had been implemented into the Fire Emblem Heroes game...

Alm shot up to 4th on the Male's side, and Celica came in 1st on the Female's side. This was thanks to the remakes being released, of course.

From what I can tell, a 2nd poll had Roy drop off.

Lyn, Roy, both forms of Ike, and both forms of Lucina were left off of the second poll.

 

[Pennate]

I'll keep this quick.

Celica:

Chance: 70%

Want: 50%


Andy:

Chance: 5%

Want: 50%

Nominations:
Excitebiker x2
Ganon x2
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x1

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Today, we have an acclaimed YouTubed throwing his metaphorical hat into the ring, and he has a massive list of characters from the shadows that we need to predict.

Machoke
Gamera
Zelda
Kirby
Jimmy Neutron
Bert and Ernie
Tony the Tiger
Jack Skellington
Sam
Wingding
Knack
Boss Baby


Tackle as many of these guys as you want but let’s be real we all know whose getting in he’s right.

Also predict Dillon I guess idgaf.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm sorry Phantom, but everyone today is getting nothing but big old...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm sorry Phantom, but everyone today is getting nothing but big old...

Wow you are saying locks like Sam Kirby and Wingding are not getting in? #sad

 

[BluePikmin11]

Jokes aside, at least this gives me time to cool down and prepare for future character analyses for RTC.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Jokes aside, at least this gives me time to cool down and prepare for future character analyses for RTC.

You better analyze these characters or I’m gonna tell Ridley on you.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You better analyze these characters or I’m gonna tell Ridley on you.

PLEASE DON'T KILL ME, RIDLEY SENPAI!

I SWEAR I WILL OBEY YOUR EVERY ORDER! EVEN IF THAT ORDER TAKES AWAY MY PERSONAL RIGHTS AS A HUMAN BEING!

 

[Ura]

Tony the Tiger

Chance: 65%

This is a toss up really. Tony has so much brand recognition as one of the most iconic fictional characters ever but at the same time the fact that he's never been on a Nintendo console really hurts his chances. Despite that I feel that his popularity will overcome these boundaries and fans will finally have the chance to play this character after so many years of waiting.

You also need to take in to consideration Nintendo's efforts to expand their IP's. Recently they've been getting in to the cereal business so Tony could be added in as a cereal rep to represent all of Nintendo's cereals.

Want: 100%

I've wanted Tony ever since the Smash 64 days and honestly his absence in Smash really hurts. Fans have demanded his inclusion and it's about time we got a cereal rep in Smash.

Prediction: My Sonic OC

Chance: 70%
Want: 5%

You all better give him high want scores or i'll get you.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Spoiler: Real Thoughts

Machoke

100%

He's big and strong, he's Sakurai's husbando! BIAS!

Gamera

20%

Sakurai considered him but,

Spoiler

He's too Big!

Zelda

30%

I don't know you guys, she's just not that suited for fighting.

Kirby

20%

He's too Small!

Jimmy Neutron

99%

Look at that moveset potential, and it's Sakurai favourite show! Shoe-in!

Bert and Ernie

20%

2 character Technical limitations might hold them back.

Tony the Tiger

50%

His Flavour of the month sure is GRRRREAAATTTT!

Jack Skellington

15%

He isn't relevant anymore I don't know why he would get in!

Sam

60%

We need more female vegan activist reps in this game!

Wingding

100%

He appeared recently on a Nintendo console. Shoe-In!

Knack

99%

That Sakurai mech tweet obviously points towards him

Boss Baby

5%

He doesn't have moveset potential. He would be just a clone of Jigglypuff.

FAKE PREDICTION

Dillon: 53.65%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Deleted member]

RIDLEY:

CHANCE: 10000000000000000000000000000%

RIDLEY HAS THE BIGGEST CHANCES OF ALL SMASH NEWCOMERS AND HE HAS THE LARGEST IMPORTANCE IN NINTENDO'S BIG HISTORY AND HAS HUGE MOVESET POTENTIAL. SAKURAI IS JUST LEAVING THE BIG GUNS FOR THE FINALE.


WANT: OVER 9000%

RIDLEY IS THE BIGGEST HERO OF SOCIETY AND HE IS A GREAT INSPIRATION TO ME. I WANT TO MAKE MASSIVE CHANGES IN MY LIFE AND I THANK RIDLEY FOR THAT.


Predictions:
Not-Ridley:0% Not Ridley, therefore not a big deal.

/joke.

 

[Fenriraga]

Kirby

Chances: 0%

He isn't Ridley.

Want: 10%

I guess he could inhale Ridley to become part Ridley so that's cool.

 

[Troykv]

I'll just put the predicitons; I feel a bit sick right now, sorry.

Nominations:

Dillon: 29.7%

 

[colder_than_ice]

After toying with the idea for months, I decided to change my avatar to Ridley because absolutely no one has an Avatar like that.

Boss Baby
Chance: 100%
Want: 100% - I’ve never actually seen that movie, but it was nominated for an academy award so it must be good.......right?
....
....
....
....
....
....
....right???

 

[AvionFinch]

Tony the Tiger

Chance: 70%

As far as cereal mascots go, he's probably the frontrunner. His fanbase is quite large, we even have quite a few on here, and his character thread is quite active, it's weird though, a lot of people say he's in competition with Decidueye, but one's a pokemon, and the other is a cereal mascot, that doesn't make any sense.

Want: 100% hes GRREAT.

Kirby

Chance: 10%

I'm sorry guys, it really hurts to lose such an important character, but have you seen the reviews for his most recent game? People are saying things like "Great, but not as good as Robobot." and "A bit too easy, still pretty fun though." I'm sorry, but I don't think the series can recover from this horrible low point. Such a shame.

Want: 55%

I mean, I'd be okay with him coming back but, I'm a realist.

Also, I hate to call out mistakes, but you forgot the most important character from that video.

Troupple King

Chance: 100%

We kept asking who would be the indie rep, and the answer was right in front of us.

Want: 100%

All hail the Troupple King, long may he reign.

((This was waaay better than I thought it was gonna be, lol))

Nominate: Elma x5

Prediction for Dillon: 24%

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Clearly this is just a joke, and we're not supposed to analyze every single one of these character chances, right?

Right?

...

Machoke

Chance: 35%

As Dunkey pointed out, this is clearly either Machoke or Gamera, but I cannot for the life of me tell which it is. Both have equal reason to be in Smash, they are equally requested by the Smash community, and they both have incredibly strong ties to Nintendo. I am going to give just the slightest edge to Gamera though, on account of the controversy that Machoke could bring to Smash Brothers, being a near-naked humanoid creature.

Want: 100%

LOOK AT THOSE PECS! LOOK AT THEM!

Gamera

Chance: 65%

See above. Being fully clothed in a shell, Gamera does not face the problems Machoke does.

Want: 30%

I would much rather prefer Machoke. Do you see any pectoral muscles on Gamera? I thought not.

Zelda

Chance: 5%

I just don't see this happening. Zelda is such an obscure character, I don't see Sakurai seriously considering him. Even then, if we're going to get any representation from that series, it's going to be Jim the Knight from Hydlide.

Want: 70%

A move-set entirely based around cross-dressing could be interesting but have no real attachments to the character.

Kirby

Chance: 1%

Overwatch characters are not going to make it into Smash Brothers, stop fooling yourselves people.

Want: 0%

Why bother when he would be an easy palette swap of Jigglypuff?

Jimmy Neutron

Chance: 90%

The only way Jimmy Neutron isn't on the roster is if Nintendo held him back for DLC. He's been a no-brainer addition ever since Nintendo bought HBO.

Want: 1000000000%

I have been sacrificing virgins to a shrine of Sakurai daily for the past 15 years to make this happen. I'm so happy that things are finally coming into place.

Bert and Ernie

Chance: 65%

Hold on, hear me out guys.

We all know Sakurai's feelings on Bert and Ernie. We know how a muppet killed his brother, we know how Sesame Street has treated Nintendo systems in the past. But at the end of the day, Sakurai is a people pleaser, so I'm sure he'll get over his prejudices.

Want: 10%

Grover is objectively a better pick in every conceivable way.

Tony the Tiger

Chance: 1%

A cereal representative that isn't Snap Crackle Pop? Puh-LEASE!

Want: 0%

I find Tony the Tiger's design to be very inappropriate, and I do not want my little brother to see that kind of content in Smash Brothers.

Jack Skellington

Chance: 100%

Why are we even bothering to rate this? Clearly that is Jack Skellington in the silhouette, the Nightmare before Chirstmas sold amazingly on the Nintendo Virtual Boy. An obvious addition.

Want: 100%

Easily the best Undertale character.

Sam and Wingding

Chance: 0%

Sakurai is not going to add hentai characters into Smash Brothers, regardless of how many people ask for them.

Want: Abstain

I really don't know enough about the series to say one way or the other.

Knack

Chance: 60%

As we all know, Sakurai is a big fan of Lord of the Rings, and while I could see him picking characters like Sackboy or Brash the Freakin' Bear, Knack probably has the best shot of the bunch.

Want: 100%

Knack might be my favorite video game character. His cameo in Doki Doki Literature club had me in tears for over an hour. I would die of happiness to see him make his way into Smash.

Boss Baby

Chance: 0%

I'm sorry Boss Baby fans, I know he's got great moveset potential, but the only possible Dreamworks representatives are a tag team of Ruffnut and Tuffnut.

Want: 60%

I'm not a big fan of the character, I think his fans deserve to see him make it in.

Trouple King (Really TCT~Phantom ? How'd you forget this?)

Chance: 15%

An apple-party character is definitely going to happen, but the competition is so fierce that I can't in good conscience rate him any higher.

Want: 100%

He would keep Doctor Mario out of Smash Brothers for good.

Nominating x5

 

[jamesster445]

Smash Siloueettes

Chance-100%
Obviously if they're in the trailer they're already confirmed.
Want- 100%
This game is going to be legendary

Nominations-

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Death

Chance: 50%
Given that the two possible states are life and death, death has a 50% chance of occurring.

Want: 100%
komm süsser tod

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[Ura]

Ura

Chance: 100%

I am the most highly requested Smashboards user to become playable in Smashboards as shown by every single popularity poll. The moveset I would bring to Smash is outstanding as well; completely unlike anything seen before. Smashboards accounts for thousands of Smash players around the globe and the time for a rep from this site is now.

Additionally, Sakurai himself has recolonized my popularity as a potential newcomer and has acknowledged the demand for me is is too much for him to ignore.

With that in mind and the fact that Smashboards hasn't had a representative in the game yet, i'm more of a shoe in then the Ice Climbers or Wolf.

And to the detractors who say i'd be another Falcon clone, your arguments have no merits and you're basing that off nothing. Clearly you don't know what I bring to the table in Smash.

Want: 100%

I want myself in and so do you.

Prediction: Ura's long lost sibling

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

He/She will get in the game but will be a last minute clone of me.

 

[Starcutter]

Machoke/Gamera: 50%
It's not clear if its him or gamera, so i'll say its a toss up

Zelda: 50%
Its a favorate of regie, but samurai might disagree

Jimmy Neutron: 100%
There's no way that can't be Jimmy. I think its even Buger of the Wind Jimmy too, that's hype.

Bert and Ernie: 70%
I'm glad regie listens to the fans and put a sesame street fighter duo in the game

Tony the Tiger: 60%
Nintendo's partnership with Kelloggs has been bad since Nintendo decided to step into the cereal game recently, but Tony is still pretty likely.

Boss Baby: 30%
Idk what dinky was talking about, that's not boss baby. Although boss baby did get nominated for an Oscar, so that boosts his chances slightly.

 

[Tikivoy]

Baby Ridley: 100% From what I've heard, Samus Returns had "The Baby". The only baby I recall in this series was Ridley, so I think he is a shoe in.

Federation Force stage with Giant Samus boss: 100%. The best part of Federation Force. It gave me hope that, finally, Samus will understand what it is like being too big.

Master Chef: 100% The Banjo deal will fall through due to Sakurai's love for robots, so we'll get Master Chef to replace Samus instead.

Nomination: Bill Tri the Nintendo Guy x100

 

[Deleted member]

Crap! Forgot my nominations: Goku (no, not the Yuyuki one) x100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

 

[WingedSupernova]

I've been playing this game for 5 months already why am I here making character predictions when I already know that the only new characters are the Inklings and Abraham Lincoln?

 

[Mario123311]

I nominate The Ed Boys

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Ridleyboards is a permanent Premium Offer
Chance:1%
Want: Too Big/100%

 

[andimidna]

I demand a Ridley rerate
But nah I’ll write something up for whatever this is in the morning when I’m not dead

andimidna I would advise organizing and breaking the analysis down into smaller paragraphs if you want people to read your post on Celica.

Lmao sometimes I just need to ramble. It was really drawn out and rant-y. So I don’t mind people skipping out on it at all lol

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Kirby

Chance: 1%

Despite all his relevancy and popularity, he's just some generic member of his species. This is is also why I don't think Pikachu and Yoshi will make it in.

Want: 0%

How many times do I have to say this? We don't need more Fire Emblem characters.

Predictions:
Mighty the Armadillo 26.85%

Nominations:
Speedwagon x10^864
My faith in these forums x1

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Machoke
Chance: 100%
He's a fighting type. Smash is a fighting game. Locked.

Want: 100%
I actually am a Machoke, so this represents me.


Zelda
Chance: Pineapple
I liked his game, but I feel like a lot of people didn't play it. Who knows?

Want: Anchovy
Personally, I would prefer Lonk from Pennsylvania.


Kirby
Chance: LUL
LUL

Want: $4.17
If I had to answer one way or the other, I'd say pepper.


Jimmy Neutron
Chance: 12 units
Yeah, I went there. It's my honest opinion.

Want: 100%
I actually am a Jimmy Neutron, so this represents me.


Bert and Ernie
Chance: Stephen Hawking
I believe in the power of thumb tacks.

Want: Kids running down the street
I've got money on this, real money, so that should explain this score.


Tony the Tiger
Chance: 60%
Winnie the Pooh is already in, so I think he stands a good shot.

Want: -50%
Cheerios are actually garbage.


Jack Skellington
Chance: []
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Want: <_>
\'o'/


Boss Baby
Chance: There are 8 letters and 1 space in Boss Baby, so the only answer is My Little Pony.

Want: √π
I actually am a Boss Baby, so this represents me.

Nominate Ichigo Hoshimiya x17.5

 

[andimidna]

Ok but if we’re predicting armadillo boy what about imp girl

 

[Hinata]

Guys, what the **** is wrong with you? Why are we even bothering with these predictions? Did any of you even watch the video? All these characters are already 100% confirmed. You people are over here giving Tony the Tiger from cereal 60% ratings when he's right there in the trailer? What's wrong with you?