Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PsySmasher]

Elma

Chance: 50%
The fact that Sakurai bought that figurine with the gun model does lead me to believe that the person he was trying to get material for was Elma. However, I believe that there are 2 things that pretty much dictate Elma’s chances:

1. When the project plan was created
2. When Rex and Pyra’s designs were finalized
If these two things don’t coincide, Elma’s inclusion is a pretty safe bet.

Want: 65%
Wouldn’t mind having her

Predictions:
New Story Mode: 58.77%

Nominations:
Tethu x 5

 

[andimidna]

Elma:
A character I would’ve said was close to a shoo-in for whenever the next Smash game came out right after Smash 4 dlc ended, oops.
Well, it’s not necessarily over for her. The game hasn’t gotten the chance to be represented, and is still a decently big deal in its own right.
I certainly wouldn’t bank on it, but 3 Xenoblade characters doesn’t sound impossible.
Plus, I think she’s pretty well-liked.
Chance: 18%
Want: 75%
Can’t say I know her, but she looks cool and a lot less tiddygirl.png than Pyra.

Story mode prediction: 53%

x3 Azura
x2 Ghirahim

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Elma
Chance: 25%
I have no explanation for this aside from gut feeling.

Want: 70%
If it would mean no Rex/Pyra, yes, please.

 

[Pennate]

Elma:

Chance: 27.5%
The odds of Elma appearing in Smash 5 are subpar. In 2016, when the roster was presumably decided, the Xenoblade franchise's popularity wasn't great enough to warrant the addition of two representatives in a single Smash title, and XC2's long development period means that Sakurai could have repeated the decisions that led to Greninja's inclusion in Smash 4 and selected Rex as a Xenoblade representative. Moreover, even if XC2 were unable to produce a suitable rep, there's no guarantee that Sakurai would add another Xenoblade character at all, or that he wouldn't choose a second character from XC1. Nevertheless, Elma's chances are helped by her relevance during the Smash Ballot days, by Sakurai's apparent enjoyment of XCX, and by Sakurai's portentous purchase of a referential mech toy, all of which help Elma maintain a certain degree of feasibilty as a newcomer.

Want: 10%
The majority of the Elma "supporters" I've encountered have expressed interest in the character primarily because of superficial and insignificant factors such as Elma's physical attractiveness, gender, or skin color. I don't care for the mindset that would consider such details vital to a character's inclusion, and I can't easily separate it from Elma, so my opinion of today's concept has been soiled.

However, I have to thank Smashboards for showing me that my experiences were far from the norm, and that most of Elma's support stems from an enjoyment of XCX. You people are the reason I didn't put a "0%" here, and I'll be happy for you if Elma finds a spot on the roster.

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 30%
I don't too much stock into the "too late" argument as MonolithSoft worked on the last Smash so Sakurai has most likely become pretty acquainted with the team and would very much be able to know about future projects going on at the company. Couple that with Sakurai liking 2, him pulling characters early before, and XC2 being in development since 2014, there's a very good chance Rex and Pyra are in the next Smash. Elma has some good stuff going for her such as being a part of a continuing franchise and her game being made in the perfect spot for inclusion, but I feel it comes down to whether XC will get 2 characters or not.

Want: 60%
XBX is the weakest entry and I much prefer to see characters from 2 show up. But hey more Xenoblade characters is still good in my eyes, so I'll gladly take her in addition to Rex and Pyra.

noms: Tethu X5

 

[Alpswat]

Elma:

Chance: (35-70%)
I put this range because i personally believe that heavily depends on the Xenoblade X port, she could get into the base game if the port comes early , also as DLC if tthe port iself comes later. Won't get in if the port doesn't come out on that range. Also his game before is a fact to consider. I'd prefer her over Rex and Pyra. But personally i feel that 3 characters as representation for Xenoblade franchise would be perfect because all the games are pretty different and each character has A LOT of moveset potential. Compare those 3 (Shulk, Elma, Rex/Pyra) with Fire Emblem or Zelda (No need to hate, i love those franchises) but 3 MAIN characters that can do different things is not a thing that you can see in other games.

Want: 100%

My favourite character of the Xenoblade X saga. As I've said before, those 3 characters DESERVE representation.

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

I'm going to abstain from rating Elma, since i know literally nothing about them.
so I'm just going to give my prediction and noms if that's alright.

story mode prediction: 39%

Nominations
Qbby x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Elma

Chance: 20%

- Xenoblade Chronicles 2 happened so Rex’s pants are more likely now.

Want: 9%

- Meh. I’d rather have Fiora, Nia or even Rex’s pants but I wouldn’t be mad if Elma does make the cut.

Prediction

Story Mode: 46%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Black Shadow x1

 

[Opossum]

.

Want: 10%
The majority of the Elma "supporters" I've encountered have expressed interest in the character primarily because of superficial and insignificant factors such as Elma's physical attractiveness, gender, or skin color. I don't care for the mindset that would consider such details vital to a character's inclusion, and I can't easily separate it from Elma, so my opinion of today's concept has been soiled.

Nothing wrong with wanting more diversity in Smash imo.

 

[AvionFinch]

Elma

Chance: 65%

Past Smash games tend to add characters from the previous generation, and with the Inklings defaulting to their Splatoon 1 appearance, it could be assumed the same would be happening here. If Sakurai were looking for Wii U based characters, Elma is one of the most prominent ones. Also, Xenoblade WILL get at least one new character, its a growing series that is only getting more popular.
I'm one of those people who think we very well could get both Elma AND Rex & Pyra, in fact, I have this weird feeling it's going to happen. There does always tend to be a series or two that get quite a bit of love in any given smash game. (Kirby in Brawl, FE and Kid Icarus in 4)

Want: 100%

One of my absolute most wanted, she's got a cool weapon switching mechanic, and uses dual swords and guns, both of which we don't have that many of. Also, her class name is Full Metal Jaguar, which may be the best class name ever.
Oh yeah, she also has a mech. That's cool too.

Prediction Story Mode: 27% chance / 58% want

Nominate: Quote x 5

 

[Skyblade12]

There are a lot of good arguments for Elma in here. Well done.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Elma
Chance: 50% - Smash games always add from the previous generation (due to the rosters usually being decided during that generation). So while I don't think Rex & Pyra are out of the question, I'd say Elma has the upper hand as she's kind of the main character (not the avatar), though Robin got in over Chrom, so I'm not 100% sure.
Want: 50% - I liked the game well enough to say sure. But there are others I want first.

Prediction: Story Mode
Chance: 28.97%
Want: 68.21%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Elma

Chance: 60%

This has been a tough score for me to pin down but I'm comfortable with this. Xenoblade is going to get more character representation, I'm extremely certain of that. I'm not really seeing Cross or anyone else so in my eyes it's likely between Elma and Rex/Pyra, and I'm in the camp that's unconvinced that Xenoblade 2 came too late, so I believe Rex & Pyra are most likely getting in. That being said, after thinking it over I'm also not convinced that it's even a competition between the two. We've seen franchises get more than one unique newcomer several times in the past, and I personally think Xenoblade is one of the most likely series to get that treatment this time, if not the most likely. It's a quickly growing series, one that has been openly praised by Sakurai, has two recent major games, both of which with a major and popular newcomer choice, and both of them appear to be quite unique. That's a pretty good combination. I'm not as confident as I am in some other characters but ultimately I think Elma has a pretty good shot of showing up.

Want: 55%

I love both the original Xenoblade and Shulk, but I've yet to play X or 2 and don't know enough about the games to actively want anyone from them, Elma included. I do want to play more of the series though, and I imagine I'd probably end up liking her inclusion if she gets in.

New Story Mode prediction: 27.58%

Nominations: Isabelle x5

 

[StormC]

Chance: 40%. I think there's a decent shot for Rex/Pyra in the base game if Sakurai Greninjas them, but otherwise, it probably comes down to her. I am sure the development team could come up with something interesting with her gun/sword moves and her design stands out well enough. However, poor sales/mixed reception to X might damage her chances, along with being a spin-off. I think she is close to a coin flip, but not quite there because of unpredictability.

Want: 40%. Basically indifferent but I'd easily take her over anyone from XC2.

Nothing wrong with wanting more diversity in Smash imo.

Agreed. People will get more offended at the suggestion of diversity than those who actually ask for it.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Elma
Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Elma
30% Chance

Abstain Want

TLDR she has a chance but the timing is a bit of a weird spot. We could get her and Rex though.

Nominating Spyro x 5

Day over calcs in the morning

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Elma:

Chance: 50%
I'd say it all depends on when this new Smash Bros game was started development - if it was during Smash 4's DLC cycle when XCX launched on the Wii U, then Elma has a pretty decent head-start over Rex and Pyra. On the other hand, if XC2 got preference thanks to relevancy and being far more successful commercially, then Rex and Pyra might be chosen.

I'd say it all depends on when this game started development.

Want: 65%
While I am part of 'That Group" who would like to see Rex and Pyra join Smash Bros first, I don't have any real objection to Elma if they decide to go with her instead for a Xenoblade newcomer. She's got the Skell mechs, a double-guns and double swords that could make a pretty fancy toolkit in Smash Bros, and she has an active role in the story of XCX and a clear-cut personality as opposed to the player character Cross.

So yeah, I don't mind her - I think she'd be an interesting character if they went with her, even though my preference is Rex and Pyra.

Though I'll prepare my bunker to hide away in should we end up with three Xeno characters this time.

Just late by a millisecond, here you go, one last vote.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

Yeah, I don't know nearly enough about this character. I'll just leave this one to the Xenoblade fans.

ProfPeanut is smart.
Be like ProfPeanut.

Want:70%
I didn't love XCX as much as I wanted to and I dont love Elma. But I love her design and I love her moveset potential. Best case scenario for me is her in base game and Nia or Morag Rex as DLC.

Noms
Marth and Roy get English VAs.

I thought you said you stop to put scores?

And how many votes you use for your nomination exactly?

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Elma Chance: 15%
If she doesn't make it onto the base roster, she's ****ed. At that point there'd be no way she'd get in when Rex & Pyra would be possible to include (and that's assuming they weren't possible for the base roster).

Want: 0%
Nah.

New Story Mode Prediction: 30%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[Cosmic77]

Elma

Chance: 30%
Elma is a weird case. Normally, I'd jump on board with the idea of the character closest to the beginning of Smash's development being the newcomer, but XC2 had to have been in the later stages of development when Sakurai started working on Smash Switch. Because of the mediocre reception to the game and the poor Japan sales, I don't think XCX had a big enough impact for Sakurai to feel like a newcomer from that game was absolutely necessary. If anything, I'd assume Sakurai would shoot for a XC2 character instead just because he knew it would be the true sequel to the original.

Want: Abstain
I don't think it's fair for me to rate Elma when I know virtually nothing about her character.

New Story Mode prediction: 32.7%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Erureido]

This'll be a quick rating.

Elma

Chance: 45%

While her game is no longer the most relevant in the franchise, I feel like her chances of being included will come down to how Sakurai sees Xenoblade 2 in regards to including Rex & Pyra (those two could be the next Greninja due to timing reasons). Elma herself has some decent support behind her back too.

Want: 60%

I think she'd be pretty cool, but I've got some other characters I'd rather see first.

------

Predictions

New Story Mode: 27.16%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Elma
Chances: 25%
Rex will likely be the next Xenoblade rep although maybe there is slight hope for Elma since Xenoblade X seemed like its own thing that could get represented especially if an X2 is announced.

Want: 75%
Like I have said with Rex I do have an interest in the franchise and characters so I would like this inclusion.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[DDDSan43]

Elma
Chances: 60%
Elma might get in potentially if the Xenoblade Chronicles X port comes out. So it's interesting in that way. The only thing that can overshadow these chances is about XC2 characters. But they look so anime/manga to me.

Want: 100%

People wanting more Xenoblade representation is more than great. Big moveset potential in her. To be honest Elma, Shulk and Rex deserves to be in Smash.

 

[Cycrum]

Elma

Chance: 55%
Because Smash 5's development cycle likely started sometime in Q1 2016, the roster was likely finalized way before XC2's release, meaning Elma has a much higher chance for being the next Xenoblade Chronicles representative due to her relevance at the time of Smash 5's development. Also, as mentioned several times earlier, Sakurai purchased a model of a mech that wields a rifle similar to those in XCX, making her chances marginally better because the model was stated to be used as reference for his work, potentially for her Final Smash or some other aspect of her moveset.

Want: Abstain
I've never played any of the Xenoblade Chronicles games, nor do I know much about them.

Predictions:
New Story Mode: 27.88%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x4
Spyro x1

 

[Bebe Mignon]

I was reluctant to do this, but I gotta chime in for Elma.

Elma
Chance: 50%
The Rex & Pyra duo is her biggest competition. She may get in if Sakurai wasn't made aware of Xenoblade 2. She may not. The Vifam model may seem like a compelling argument, but the reality is that it doesn't fully represent her character. It only lends credence to the possibility of a Skell character in Smash, which could mean it exists as an assist trophy or something like that.

Want: 100%
She is my absolute favorite character from Xenoblade X. Heck, she might be my favorite character of all time. Throughout my journey in Xenoblade X, I found her to be relatable in some ways. She's just so humble and gracious, yet she's also resilient and logical. Her design is fairly iconic.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Elma Chance 2.5%: Xenoblade gets an advertisement character or no character at all. For the old stuff, it seems like Shulk represents it fine from a marketing standpoint. The desire for Elma isn't nearly overwhelming enough for that to be any kind of factor, if anything the whole "likely characters become inherently popular and wanted" thing makes Rex and Pyra more popular.

Elma Want 30%: Zero attachment to this character whatsoever. The only reason she gets a 30 is just because she would deny Rex and Pyra from being in, which would make it worth it.

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[Graizen]

Elma
Chances: 40%
Want: 100%

My God! She is an incredible character from an equally incredible game.
I'd really like to see her in the game, but I'm afraid that Rex might have greatly reduced her chances.
But hope is the last to disappear! So let's wait and see!

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[Deleted member]

If it would mean no Rex/Pyra, yes, please.

The only reason she gets a 30 is just because she would deny Rex and Pyra from being in, which would make it worth it.

It's also because of this kind of unhealthy mentality the Smash Bros. fandom is not that well regarded you know?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK I am doing the calcs now, please rate the Concept: News Story Mode in chance and want. Also predict Hades score.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

New Story Mode
Chance: 10%
SSB4 did not have a story mode, and it takes a lot of resources to make something like the SSE. I mean when they did for Brawl they had like 35+ characters to put in the story, but now we are looking at a potential 70+ roster, and trying to cram them all in a story mode seems very hectic.

Want: 0%
SSE was fun and all back in the day, but I rather the development team not waste resources making one and focus on roster, gameplay modes, balance, online, etc. In fact, I rather they do an adventure mode like in Melee.

Hades: 19.67%

x5 to Geno.

 

[GoodGrief741]

New Story Mode

Chances: 3%
While I think this is a new game and not a port, I don’t know if the dev cycle was long enough to implement one. And while it’s coming back around, the initial backlash towards SSE might have scared the devs off.

Want 100%
That said, I played SSE 11 times and loved the **** out of it. Would pay to watch more of those awesome cutscenes and interactions.

Noms
5x Mike Jones

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Story mode

Chance: 5%

Creating dozens of CGI cutscenes would probably take alot of time and money and Sakurai would also have to change his mind on the whole ''they can just watch them on Youtube'' thing as well.

Perhaps they could have the cutscenes mostly be ingame but that would take away some of the appeal.

Want: 100%

This should say enough.

Predictions for God of the underworld: 34.85%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Elma
42.6% Chance
60.18% Want


Quite a distinct difference from Rex and Pyra. Elma did manage to sneak into the Top Ten of Chance, ousting Waluigi in the process. However, it want she did very strongly. She has managed to snag 6th place in want. That is shocking to me. Honestly I wish I came around to Elma sooner, as the arguments here have persuaded me personally.

@Icedragonadam won the noms for Elma. Congrats. Have five extra noms.

Also if anyone wants to help out and make a graphic of our top ten of chance and want sometime please pm me.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Those are some damn good scores for Elma. Wow. I think there was a bit more raiding than usual so I can't take it at face value but oh well.
After how SSE went I dont expect a comparable story mode. It seems to have ended up as a development mess. It was popular but based on the fact that we didn't get anything even close to SSE for smash For we probably won't see it this time around. Maybe there is a chance since now development wouldn't be split between two versions but ehhh.

Honestly I loved SSE. It was part of the reason I loved Brawl so much. After Smash For's awful single player content something even close to SSE would be great. Unfortunately I can't be too happy knowing that it might mean more development hell.

Noms
Roy and marth get English VAs x5

 

[Opossum]

New Story Mode

Chance: 10%
This depends entirely on Sakurai changing his mind due to the minor backlash of Smash 4 not having one/the lack of Smash 4 single player content in general.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah.

Predicting a 12.4 for Hades
Nominating English Marth x5

 

[RouffWestie]

New Story Mode

Chance: 3%

Highly doubtful. I am convinced this will be Smash WiiU + 3DS; it'll at least add Smash Run, but I don't see us getting any brand new modes.

Want: 10%

Melee's Adventure mode always just felt like an alternate Classic mode, and Subspace was only fun during co-op. The single-player content in Smash 4 just wasn't fun enough to keep me coming back for more. Master and Crazy Orders had potential - due to the random nature of the fight conditions - but they ended up getting a little too repetitive for my tastes. If there was a mode that copied the basic structure of the Orders mode while mixing in some Stadium challenges, some Race to the Finish-type stages, and Target Break challenges, along with the typical battles, It would possibly be my ideal single-player experience.

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[jamesster445]

New Story

Chance- 50%
Want- 100%

A proper adventure was missing in the last game and I sorely missed it. Where'd it be an adventure mode like Melee or a full story like Subspace, I'll take it.

Nominations- Wonder Red x5

 

[fogbadge]

new story mode

chances: 50% i think it could go either way

want: 70% i quite enjoyed the subspace emissary but if we get another i hope we get to fight eneimies from multiple different series like smash run

 

[Deleted member]

Want: 100%
Though they should give a proper explanation for how everyone ended up at the same world imo. Don't give me that whole "they're trophies/toys" crap, do something like Fire Emblem Warriors.

Mimikyu x5
I'm actually gonna nominate a character I don't want for once. The faster I stop thinking about it, the better.

 

[A Distant Demon]

1. Rex and Pyra (64.69%)
9. Elma (42.60%)

64.69+42.60=107.29

Not exact, but this is surprisingly close to 100%

Which makes sense when people expect one or the other to be a shoo-in.

6. Elma (60.18%)

19. Rex and Pyra (46.10%)

106.28
almost exactly 1 less percent than chance.