Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Parallel_Falchion]

No Cuts
Chance: 55%
Honestly, to me this might as well be "semi-port or brand new," because if it's a semi-port there's no reason for anyone to leave, it would likely require more development time to take fighters out. I'm still leaning towards semi-port...but only slightly.

Want: 100%
There is no one I dislike enough to just want them off the roster entirely. Well, except male Corrin, but (female) Corrin would still be on the roster, so...

 

[ZealousGamer]

No Cuts

Chance 5%: I'm pretty sure there will be.

Want 50%: Honestly I'd be OK if a few got cut. Namely (and personally) Cloud, Ryu, Greninja, Miis, and all Mega Evolution Final Smashes.

Nomination:
Pokemon Trainer (Second Generation) 5x

 

[Ura]

Everyone makes it back alive!

Chance: 50%

I think it's a tossup. If this game originally started development as a port there's a chance everyone could return. Otherwise expect to see at least 5 omissions from the game.

Want: 20%

It sounds spiteful but yeah I do want to see some characters get cut from the roster.

Prediction: Elma

Chance: 60%
Want: 50%

Nominations

Masked Link X 3
Concept: Advance Wars CO X 2

 

[Opossum]

No Cuts Chance 10%
While unfortunately all of the """""dessert""""" clones will be probably brought back, it's doubtful Sakurai will want to bring back all 3 Miis, WFT, 6 FE, and Rosalina simultaneously. Even if he does, it's doubtful the contracts for all the 3rd parties will go through.

No Cuts Want 0%
There are many, many characters from Smash 4's newcomers I wouldn't mind seeing cut. The time spent bringing them back would be better spent on getting new characters. Even though Dark Pit and Lucina take very little time, I think their inclusion is 100% a negative regardless.

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

There's literally no reason to think Rosalina won't come back.

 

[DaUsername]

No cuts
Chance: 50%
This game apparently started development only a few months after Smash 4 ended, so everyone staying is a possibility.
But they could also turn someone into DLCor just throw them in the trash, anything is possible.
Want: 100%
While there's one Smash 4 character I really don't like, I still don't see any reason for anyone to be cut.

Elma prediction: 40%
Noms: x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

No cuts
90% Chance

The ease of porting assets compared to past games makes me feel that the cuts would be less likely. I doubt we will get more third party troubles. The newcomers from 4 seem safe aside from clones. Even then they are so easy I can see them as dlc.

100% Want

Why else would I have nommed it for so long?

Nominating Spyro x 5


Day over at 600 am edt calcs will be posted in the morning

 

[Koopaul]

No Cuts: 85%
Normally cuts are inevitable. It just happens due to one reason or another. But this time around, I have a sneaking suspicion that this game was not built from the ground up but built around Smash for the Wii U. For that reason I can see them keeping everyone.

Want: 45%
The roster is getting awfully big and it just won't be possible to maintain such a size for very long. For various reasons, most involving development time and burden on the game makers themselves. For that reason I kind of want there to be cuts, just so that the next game (Smash 6) won't have such a haul of characters for the team to bring over on something entirely new.

Prediction: Elma = 60%
Nominations: Barbara the Bat ×5

I think I misread the rules. You can't make a ×5 nomination until you make a prediction huh? Okay I'll do that from now on.

 

[Zerp]

No cuts
Chances: 70%
I have a gut feeling that the engine is going to be the one from the Wii-U version and there'd be no need to re-develop the veterans because of that.
Want: 100%
Yes please. I don't like every addition (and I still think Corrin is the worst newcomer ever) but once a character's a veteran, I think it's for the better if they stuck around. I wouldn't wish a cut upon any character, even Corrin despite hating that they were added in the first place because now there's people who play the character and it'd be painful for them if he/she was cut.

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5
Gooey x 5
Predictions: Elma 33%

 

[Wyoming]

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5
Predictions: Elma 33%

On the schedule. Feel free to pick.someone else.

Remember everyone , nominations for Story Mode, Hades, Banjo, Sora, DMB and Henry Fleming are pointless guys. They are in.

 

[Zerp]

On the schedule. Feel free to pick.someone else.

Remember everyone , nominations for Story Mode, Hades, Banjo, Sora, DMB and Henry Fleming are pointless guys. They are in.

Oops, thanks for catching that! I guess I'll vote Gooey x 5 then.

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

No cuts:
Chance: 20%
I'm going to be slightly optimistic. Just because I know Sakurai doesn't like cuts.
Want: 100%
Having no cuts is pretty ideal.

Nominations: Ashley (Warioware) x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Concept: No Cuts

Chance: 25%
Do you know how many questions have to be answered correctly to make this happen?

- Are they trimming out the clones? Does consolidating them into alts count as cutting them?
- How much time do they actually have? More time than they know what to do with, or the opposite?
- Did either Capcom, Namco, Square Enix, or Platinum Games call back to say that once is enough?
- Is this a brand-new engine? How much of the roster is being remade from the ground up?
- How much is going to be re-used, and how much are they remaking?
- What about patches? If they just make the people they didn't have time for into DLC, would those count as cuts?

The only reason this isn't a 1% is because there's still the possibility that they're porting over enough of Smash 4 that they can reuse all their character assets - in which case, yes, No Cuts becomes a good possibility. Heck, an almost guaranteed one! But this is the kind of assertion that just won't have enough facts to make good guesses about until well after Smash 5's release, when Sakurai tells us straight about all the development hiccups that his team had to handle.


Want: 50%
Too many people here are mixing their Wants with their Chances. Yeah, I don't like clones or Palutena, or Corrin, but there's always been a big difference between my dream roster and the one that gets shipped into the actual game.

Look, the expectation/belief that no one ever gets cut doesn't belong in either of these categories. We'll never know enough about a Smash's development to make a good guess about the full roster, and we all have a few characters that we wish weren't in Smash. And just like the questions above, it doesn't matter many how negative answers there are when you need only one to kill the idea. Releasing a roster of only 30-something veterans kills the No Cuts idea just as much as cutting only Dark Pit does.

The only way that that would ever realistically happen would be if Smash became this evergreen title that received patches for the rest of its life, with new content simply being stacked onto the old content instead of having to wait for every new iteration. This will probably never happen because new consoles and their hardware will always need a new Smash game.

Admittedly, in a perfect world and timeline, I don't want to see cuts because I think everyone in Smash 4 has the potential to grow into better addtions, like Falco, Roy, Toon Link, and Luigi did. (Corrin, though, would probably need another FE game.) At the same time, I'm not willing compromise Smash itself to make this ideal a reality. We already know how long Brawl took to get made; given how relatively fast we're getting Smash 5, I don't want to commit to the expectation of zero cuts when I know so little else about Smash 5's development. It's just idealistic to think that Sakurai and Nintendo will have time for both every single veteran and the game itself before the year's end.

Prediction:
Elma: 11.5%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5

 

[Pennate]

Concept: No Cuts from Smash 4

Chance: 5%

Want: 50%

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[Erureido]

No Cuts

Chance: 20%

Something tells me the clones and a few of the third parties are at risk. Other than that, I feel like the chances of this happening is on the lower end.

Want: 80%

Yeah, it's a good idea. There's no character from Smash 4 I genuinely want to see being cut from the roster, but if a few of those characters are cut, I won't feel that bothered depending on which ones get the ax.

------

Predictions

Elma (Xenoblade Chronicles): 28.73%

I feel like people will rate her low with Xenoblade Chronicles 2 out now.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[Scamper52596]

No Cuts

Chance: 60%
I'm one of those who is of the belief that it's likely this game is going to use a lot of Smash for Wii U assets. I don't see why Sakurai would spend years crafting the most polished Smash game to date only to scrap it and start from the ground up immediately after development. Sure it's going to be marketed as a new game, but I feel that it's going to be the Splatoon 2 to the original. If that's the case I don't see why all the characters couldn't make the jump. Even if some don't I wouldn't be surprised if they were DLC later on.

On the other hand, when I look at certain characters (especially some of the DLC characters) I could see them getting cut either in favor of other characters or because they were just meant to be a fun DLC addition for Smash for Wii U/3DS. I think the clones, some of the 3rd parties, and the DLC characters are the ones in question. Cloud is probably the most likely 3rd party to get cut in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised if they replaced Corrin with the next Fire Emblem character for example. We'll just have to wait and see.
I'll give the concept of no roster cuts an optimistic score of 60%. Once we finally get a look at the game in action we might get our answers...

Want: 93%
Ideally it would be nice to not have any cuts. Like most Smash fans I've never really been a fan of them. The only reason my score isn't at 100% is because there's a specific character that I really don't like in the Smash 4 roster, but it's likely they'll end up sticking around anyway.

Prediction
Elma: 17.4%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2

 

[Cosmic77]

No Cuts

Chance: 25%
Even if they reuse a lot of assets from Smash Wii U, we're still pushing the limits with the number of characters on the roster. Plus, third-parties are fickle.

Want: 33%

Might sound petty, but I do think we're gonna need to cut a few characters sooner or later. Sakurai can't realistically create 60+ characters or so from scratch and still find the time to add a reasonable amount of newcomers.

Elma prediction: 32.3%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[PSIGuy]

No Cuts
Chance: 25%
Between licensing, rebalancing and my own spite for certain characters I don't think everyone will be returning. There are plenty of characters I would not miss. But we are probably going to see a lot of reused assets, which will make it easier. I do wonder, if we see a former costume-turned-clone turned back into a costume, does that count as a cut?
Want: 5%
Whatever.
Elma Prediction: 45%

 

[Zeox]

No cuts
Chance: 50%
if is a port then I don't see any reason why they would cut any character, if is a total 100% new game then I can see the cuts.
Want: 100%
The more, the better, I don't want any cuts, I want more characters!

 

[KingofPhantoms]

No Cuts: 40%

I do think the game is going to use a lot of assets from Smash 4, even if it's a new game. It'd make sense to do so since Smash 4 was really well received gameplay-wise, and it's not like Nintendo hasn't already done this before recently (Splatoon 2 is the perfect example, as has already been brought up by a few others). Because of that, it'd be fairly easy to port over every veteran from it. That being said, I still don't think it's more likely than not, since we won't know for sure just how much effort this might save on certain characters, and we also have to take third party characters into consideration here. They could be at risk of being cut for very different reason than any first party characters might be (namely, legal issues. All it would take is one group saying "no" to the inclusion of another company's character this time. How likely each individual third party character is to return, however, that's another story for other days). It could easily save low-effort clones from being cut, but even then we can't be 100% sure.

In addition to all that, we can't be completely positive that they are going to re-use assets from Smash 4. I think it's extremely likely to happen, ,but we can't be totally sure on that just yet, either.

Want: 100%

Other than maybe, and only maybe Dark Pit, I can't say there's any characters on Smash 4's roster that I actually want to see gone. And I absolutely want the majority of veterans to return for sure, so there's really no good reason why I wouldn't want no cuts period.

Nominations: Isabelle x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok right now I am doing the calcs. We are going forward. Please rate Elma in chance and want and predict Concept: New Story mode.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Elma
Chance: 50%
Forget Rex for a moment as Elma has another problem to deal with first called Cross. Elma is the main protagonist of XCX, but Cross is the POV and player character which makes it similar to Chrom and Robin. Though unlike Chrom however Elma offers unique options for a moveset.

Now getting to Xenoblade Chronicles 2, that game has been in development since 2014, and by 2016 when Sakurai was deciding the roster, Rex & Pyra were already complete with their designs and abilities so they can definitely use the Greninja gambit. Monolith Soft has a say on what character they want to represent in Smash Bros, and I find it unlikely they would opt for Elma when Rex and XBC2 are fresh on their minds. The best option here is for both of them to make the base roster. 3 Xenoblade reps shouldn't be an issue.

Want: 100%
I haven't played X, and Rex is my most wanted newcomer so of course I shouldn't be rooting for Elma, right? Nah, Elma's fanbase is quite dedicated and humble for the most part and that has earned my respect.

I would be fine if Elma makes the base roster while Rex ends up being DLC as that way it makes both fanbases happy. Plus, a good friend of mine showed me an awesome moveset for Elma that got me hooked for her moveset potential as a character. But I still hope both Rex and Elma can make the base roster.

x5 to Geno

 

[Deleted member]

Tickle Me Elma

Chance: 45%

If Rex came too late, then it's most likely going to be Elma.

Want: 90%

She'd be fun.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Elma:
Chance: 70% (This is probably the highest anybody is gonna put and I'm maybe a little biased but w/e)

Pros:
- Xenoblade X’s timing makes it a prime target for representation, launching in april 2015 in Japan whereas the roster was likely finalized around summer 2016, A year and a half off from the release of the next game in the series, Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

- Extremely large and unique moveset potential, with dual swords and dual guns at her disposal, a variety of unique arts, a variety of "gimmick" options if Sakurai wanted due to the games depth of combat, and animations that could practically be copied and pasted from X, it’s RIDICULOUSLY easy to see how she’d fit into Smash and her potential is clear.

- Represents a different part of the Xenoblade franchise which I’m positive will be revisited in the future given the game’s cliffhanger ending. Compare this to Xenoblade 2 which sticks heavily to the original game’s theming instead.

- Not a major point or anything but a point anyway, Sakurai bought a toy mech with a rifle attached to use as a reference for a new project, may not be related to her but the figure greatly resembles the skells used in Xenoblade X and there aren’t many characters who it could be related to (People have brought up ray from custom robo but he’s so irrelevant that I can’t see it happening, others brought up mach rider…idk anything about mach rider so…). It could also mean nothing but it's fun to bring up.

Cons:
- Xenoblade 2 existing creates a potential problem as Sakurai and Monolithsoft may opt for including a character from the more recent game like Rex. However characters being selected before their game actually releases has only happened twice in the past, with Roy who was a last minute clone, and Greninja, but Pokemon could be a special case considering they practically become irrelevant as new games come out, the same could apply here with a new Xenoblade game out I suppose, but Elma isn’t irrelevant in the same way an old pokemon will be since her game is still a standalone product, not a continuous series where characters are added on top of one another by the hundreds.

- Elma isn’t the the games primary player character, the avatar Cross would be, but since she’s the pretty much the most important character in the story she can still be considered the main character, Cross is barely a character and serves as merely an onlooker to the games narrative, they barely have a definitive design and have so many customization options that the only way to go about including them would be using the default version, using the 'Drifter' class, which wields a knife and an assault rifle, FAR less interesting than Elma's potential moveset however. Elma and Cross are comparable to Chrom and Robin however where Chrom lacked moveset potential and Robin had it, the opposite is true for Elma and Cross.

Want: 100%
Elma is my most wanted character currently, I bought Xenoblade Chronicles X on a whim despite not really being a fan of RPG's or open world games all that much and not knowing anything about the franchise outside of Shulk in smash. I instantly fell in love with the game and played it practically non-stop when I first got it (until I got stuck on the last boss and left it for months, I really sucked and had no idea what I was doing lol). As such I fell in love with Elma, her amazing design and seeing her brought up in smash speculation around the time of X's release was probably a major factor in me wanting to play X. Elma may not be the most developed character around (like literally all the characters in X lol) but I still really enjoyed her as a character regardless (the powerful, badass female character is appealing I guess) and she would fit into smash almost too well, offering a unique moveset in the process, and there are a lot of different playstyles she could encompass and be built around due to the depth of her home games combat.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I believe that Elma was highly considered as the promotional candidate for Smash 4 DLC. She already held great gameplay potential with dual guns/swords and her game came out around the time Sakurai was considering making a character from an already represented franchise that was getting a game around 2015. I feel it was a competition between Corrin and Elma, but with Corrin edging the win due to the gameplay potential and Sakurai likely wanting to push his favorite series more.

That said, I believe that Sakurai played Xenoblade X in 2015 around the time when Smash DLC was and likely loved the gameplay/world building (Sakurai plays a lot of games during free time, even during Smash Switch development noting XC2 & Stardew Valley as recent examples). His potential love for the game could have influenced Sakurai to consider Elma for the next Smash’s project plan in early 2016.

Around Smash Switch’s project plan, Sakurai likely would have put a placeholder for Elma. But here is the interesting situation, Sakurai would have likely negotiated with Monolith Soft for Elma. But then faced a very possible conflict, with Monolith noting Sakurai that they were developing a Xenoblade sequel for the Nintendo NX, where Sakurai could have been shown very early gameplay concepts of Rex and Blades. With Sakurai possibly having this early information, there could be a wall to Elma’s inclusion that could favor Rex more for the 2nd Xenoblade newcomer spot due to the convenient situation being similar to Greninja in Smash 4.

But, it is quite possible that both could get in due to their high gameplay potential. Elma has Rex as an obstacle, but we could see another “Corrin” situation where Sakurai adds both of the characters, regardless of the potential overrepresentation that might have been thought of at the time. Elma is in a very unique circumstance for Smash Switch, but I believe Elma will ultimately win out alongside Rex, with Sakurai having gameplay potential as one of the most important factors for Smash. Xenoblade is in a VERY fortunate and lucky position, but whether Sakurai lines up all of the planets to create a Xenoblade newcomer apocalypse is ultimately up to him. The universe could blow up, or Sakurai could moderate Xenoblade newcomer representation to one for other opportunities or to avoid controversy like with Corrin when he was first revealed in Smash 4 DLC.

x5 Octolings

 

[ShinyRegice]

Elma chances: 26%
I believe that timing is actually in favor of an XC2 character, as its development started in 2014 already and while it may be argued that Nintendo didn't know at that time if the Switch would do considerably better than the Wii U, it being on the same system as the next Smash I think automatically plays into its favor assuming Sakurai expected XC2 to be released before the new Smash.

Then there's Sakurai comment about the mech figure which is speculated to serve as reference for a Skell Final Smash, but it's not a guarantee either, it could be for a new move for Master Hand for example.

Elma want: 58%
I played Xenoblade X and while I enjoyed it I don't necessarily feel the need for it to get playable representation in Smash. I particularly liked the game's settings with its beautiful places (Sylvalum in particular is awesome) and species, but I also found it to have flaws that hold the game back, especially the characters. The original Xenoblade did such a good job at giving every playable character a personality and a purpose both in story and gameplay, with each feeling unique enough to be used for different strategies against different kinds of enemies. In comparison the way characters were handled in general in XCX left to be desired, there were a lot of them which much more limited character development and they felt less unique gameplay-wise (especially because they only had two unique arts each). To be completely fair I can sort of understand why it's that way, because in the settings of a colony that survived the destruction of Earth each character has their own experience and the support mission format was a good way to develop many backstories and make us care more than if the characters part of the support missions were NPCs. I also felt like the game in general suffers a bit from feature creep, and the amount of playable characters is a symptom of that.

Honestly port the game on Switch, cut a bit back on gameplay feature creep with more unique characters, give us more development on part of the lore of the game that's being barely developped on (such as telling us whatever is L's species and making Yggralith more than bonus bosses – especially with their frightening description, they sound like a main story kind of threat – not to mention continuing the game's story so we can have a follow-up to the obvious mystery at the end of the last main story chapter) and you have the potential for a truly awesome game with less unanswered questions and better gameplay, and in turn I could imagine myself fully wanting Elma for Smash.

New story mode prediction: 38.27%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x1
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x4

Mimikyu should be safe now, time to go back to nominate the character artwork concept, hopefully to see it rated before the first look at Smash Switch gameplay.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Elma

Elma is a character no one was really looking at a month ago. Rex was still the big new thing because of course he was. Why wouldn't he be? But as time has gone on, some people have brought up the fact that we can't be 100% sure that XC2 was ready early enough that Sakurai was able to use him for smash. It's possible that Rex wasn't fleshed out enough to be ready for smash by the time the roster was finalized, and we already know that some characters can just barely make it or barely be excluded because of project plans. And unlike Greninja, it would be much harder to make Rex playable on a concept (Greninja is basically Ninja+Frog while Rex would probably need some more source material).

So how does this matter for Elma? If Sakurai is looking back at games that came out between Smash For and Smash Switch, XCX is going to be a big contender. She's got the moves, XCX was one of the big WIi U games that came out, along with games like Splatoon (not to compare the two, just a coincidence). She has insane moveset potential with dual swords+Dual guns and a ****ing mech. She has a personality and basically everything else Sakurai looks for. The barely-more-realistic-than-Bayonetta's-guns may be a problem if Sakurai wasnt to use her iconic looking guns over the alien ones though. And, if Rex was ready early enough, I feel like Elma would absolutely get out-prioritized.

I wouldn't call her a shoo-in, but I would definitely call her a competitor for the spot everyone seems to think Rex has on-lock.


Want:70%
I didn't love XCX as much as I wanted to and I dont love Elma. But I love her design and I love her moveset potential. Best case scenario for me is her in base game and Nia or Morag Rex as DLC.

Noms
Marth and Roy get English VAs.

 

[-crump-]

Elma
Chance: 45%
Elma’s chances rely entirely on how far in development XC2 was at the time Sakurai was formulating the roster. If Rex and Pyra’s design/abilities weren’t finished enough for them to be added, I think Elma is a prety likely choice. XCX did alright iirc, and Xenoblade in general has become quite popular in recent years.

Want: 70%
Dual guns?
Dual swords?
Yes please.

I’m gonna be honest; I don’t like Xenoblade. I didn’t like the first one, I wasn’t crazy about X, I won’t touch XC2 with a stick... But from what I did play of X, I thought Elma would be a prefect character for Smash. She’s fast, stylish, and powerful, and I would definetley be excited to play as her.
also I might have a tiny crush on her but w/e

Noms: Rick/Kine/Coo x5

 

[jamesster445]

Elma

Chance- 75%
Want- 100%

To get quote my self on the Elma thread.

I thinks that's a safe bet. Rarely does a Smash game take after the console it's based on.

Smash 64- uses iconography and characters from SNES (Yoshi, Samus, Ness) and some N64 (Mario, Link)
Melee- Almost entirely based off N64 iconography
Brawl- Mostly Gamecube iconography with Mario Sunshine, Twilight Princess and the Metroid Prime focus and newcomers like Olimar and Ike being based off their Gamecube designs. But rarely anything taken from the Wii era itself
WiiU/3DS- More Wii iconography, Mario Galaxy, Skyward Sword, Other M and newcomers like WII Fit Trainer, Lil Mac and Rosalina. But there was some stages and themes based off Wii U games.

I'm of course ignoring the fact that these games were mostly developed during early stages of the consoles life span but I digress. I think we can see a similar trend going to happen with Smash Switch with a lot of Wii U iconography.

Smash Switch may use characters that debuted on the Wii U, depending on when the project plan started.
Elma herself has a cool abilities and design and considering her weapon type there is no way she could be a clone of Shulk. Lastly i appreciate the more sci-fi aspect of her design using more realistic weapons. But above all else, Giant Mechs. Also She's also not Rex, so that's always a plus. Easily one of my more wanted Xenoblade characters.

Nominations- Tora and Poppi (Xenoblade 2) x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Elma:

Chance: 40% - My opinion on the likelihood of the potential Xenoblade characters has shifted a lot since we rated Rex and Pyra, with it being closer to a 50/50 now. Timing is her greatest boon, and the mech gun that Sakurai has been using as reference for this game also fits nicely with the Skell design in Xenoblade Chronicles X.

Want: 40% - I don't care for her tbh, but I'd much prefer her to Rex and Pyra.

 

[Opossum]

Elma

Chance: 60%
I 100% think we're getting a Xenoblade newcomer. Whether it's Rex and Pyra or Elma is a toss up, but timing has me currently leaning toward Elma (if I could revise my chance score for Rex and Pyra I would).

Want: 50%
I'll take her over Rex and Pyra any day, personally. She has a much better design.

Predicting a 22% for a New Story Mode
Nominating English Marth x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Elma

Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

I really feel like Xenoblade just kind of sprang up out of nowhere right before Sm4sh's release. I'd never heard of Shulk before the Gematsu leak, and I'm not much a fan of the JRPG designs (and aesthetics).

Meh.

Prediction for Story Mode: 39.1%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Elma

Chance: 8%

There's no way she'll make it in before Rex and Pyra/Mythra. If those characters get in, she might have a shot, but with Xenoblade 2 being a thing, I don't know if Sakurai would care about representing X.

Want: 25%

She atleast has a way better design, also Delzethin's video on her made her sound like a more interesting fighter to me.

Predictions for Story mode: 19.57%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lucina

68.46% Chance
58.38% Want

No Cuts
30.73% Chance
68.36% Want

Wow. Talk about a weird set of scores. I was suprised by so many people actively wanting cuts.

@Llort A. Ton wins noms for No Cuts, Zerp gets noms for Lucina

 

[Opossum]

Lucina

68.46% Chance
58.38% Want

No Cuts
30.73% Chance
68.36% Want

Wow. Talk about a weird set of scores. I was suprised by so many people actively wanting cuts.

@Llort A. Ton wins noms for No Cuts, Zerp gets noms for Lucina

Ironic that No Cuts got a higher want score than Lucina.

 

[Aetheri]

Elma

Chance: 85%
Despite Xenoblade Chronicles 2 being the most recent game as well as the so far best selling game of the franchise. I highly we'll see a playable character from the game as its still very new. DLC is a good possibility but for the base game XCX is the one we should be looking at. I think a very important thing to consider here is timing. Sakurai likely started development for Smash Switch just a few months after the release of Xenoblade Chronicles X in North America. And given how Sakurai likes to decide the roster very early on in development for Smash (with exceptions for clones and Sonic in Brawl) Elma is in a very good position given the push Xenoblade as an IP has been getting from Nintendo through the years. That and Sakurai is a fan of the series and while that could mean 'Sakubias', it also means he's very much aware of the character and what potential she poses.

In addition to that I believe Elma was greatly considered for DLC since his spedifications regarding Corrin was for a character from an up-coming title which XCX fit the bill pretty well (though it is unknown why he didn't go with Elma, perhaps it released too early, or perhaps Elma's use of dual pistols would've felt redundant with Bayonetta's inclusion compared to Corrin's). But with that said.

Elma would be a totally unique fighter within Smash one that could perhaps bring something completely unique to the table, much like Shulk before her. The concept I thought up for her moveset was the ability to switch between her dual guns and her dual swords either manually (perhaps through a taunt or special) or automatically through the use of her arts. Her could include her signature Arts; Shadowstrike and Ghost Factory and could also incorporate other moves like Sliding Slinger, Shadowrunner, Side Slash, Hundred Shells, Violent Streak, or Electric Surge. Afterwards her standard attacks would depend on which weapon she has equipped. Swords for more aggressive CQC and guns for long range zoning. Of course Sakurai could come up with something else that's a bit more unexpected but we'll see if she does get added.

Another thing to keep in mind is Cross/Rook. Who is the avatar character and the main player character within Xenoblade Chronicles X...and also the definition of a silent protagonist, but unlike characters like Link and Samus Cross is pretty much just a prop. So while I can see arguments suggesting the whole Robin/Chrom situation, the difference is Cross doesn't play as much of a role as Robin within his/her respective story and Elma, unlike Chrom, will be able to stand out as she is within the current roster of Smash. She's got a more recognizable design aesthetic compared to default male or female Cross, as well as a lot more popularity for a possible inclusion into Smash.

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Want: 100%
I absolutely loved Xenoblade Chronicles X when I played it. Which is a game I bought more or less on a whim since "hmm...open-world sci-fi rpg with giant alien monsters and beautiful environments? sure wynaut?" and holy **** did it blow my expectations.
Elma is easily one of my favourite characters within the game and almost immediately I could see how well she could work in smash given her class and the weapons she uses. She's probably the most likely out all of my most wanted characters, so if she at least doesn't make it then :sadface:

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Prediction:
Story Mode-44.44%
Not sure if this will include any sort of single player or if its specific to a story mode like SSE...

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Dark Samus x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Elma

Chances: 50% - Highest I'll go for a newcomer. Elma is, in my opinion, one of the more likely newcomers we'll see this time around. The fact that Shulk getting in was very well-received and that Xenoblade as a whole is growing well, I think it's certainly possible we'll see a newcomer from the franchise. Xenoblade Chronicles X game about a year and a half before Smash Switch is believed to have begun development, so its possible that the game's protagonist, Elma, was considered. That, and paired with the robot model Sakurai bought as a reference, makes me think Elma is already on the way. As for Rex, although possible for the base roster, I believe came too late in development for consideration. Only way I see Rex getting in is if Sakurai contacted Monolith Soft in regards to new stuff for Smash, and they showed him work of their new game's protagonist.

Want: 50% - I don't know all too much about Elma, although I do like her design. I wouldn't mind seeing her get in, but I wouldn't be hurt if she didn't. I will say, that music piece Zeb linked, Primordia, is a beautiful piece that I'd love to see if anything.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So housekeeping stuff the noms list is current as of 4/18, hat tip to Wyoming for that. The front page for the most part is up to date.

By the end of the month we shall have rated over 50 characters, with several of the community's highest nominated characters being rated. At some point next month, I would like for someone to help me out and make a graphic of the top ten newcomers in chance and want.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Elma

Chance: 70%
The timing is quite great for her, since X was just a couple months old in the West when Smash Switch started development. She is also a character from a sci fi universe, which makes her even more unique by a design stand point.
While some say that Cross might be a contender for being the X rep, he/she isn't a real character like Robin or Corrin are. He is just a PoV character, or a My Unit. I mean someone actually thinks that the Tactitian is the protagonist of Fire Emblem 7?
The only thing that stands in her way is whenever or not Xenoblade 2 had established its main characters and gimmick when Smash development started.

Want: 100%
She is probably my most wanted newcomer, and 2nd overall most wanted character. I really loved X and her in that Game. Also she brings so much on the table that leaving her out would be a waste.

 

[TheFritzle]

Elma Chance:
45%
I'm of the mindset that Elma's chances rely mostly on when the game started development. I think we're either going to get Elma or Rex/Pyra in the base game. It might be a little too soon for three Xenoblade reps. I'd say it could go either way, with a slight edge to Rex/Pyra.

Elma Want:
100%
Xenoblade X was one of the first games that I put over a few hundred hours into, so I would be happy for it to get some representation.

New Story Mode Prediction:
37.89%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Deleted member]

Elma:
Chance- 65%
If sakurai wanted to have elma playable but choose cottin instead he may refer back to her. She provides a unique playstyle and comparing her to someone like bayonetta/ zero suit samus, she would be an unique and maybe a easy fit in (as sakurai could reuse some animation, while also making her unique as well). There are 2 hurdels tho. 1 is how long ago was rex and pyra final design and if sakurai knew, did he decide to go with them. The other is if she ends up being the chrom(cross getting in over her). I feel as tho shes safe on both regards tho.

Want: 100%
I like Xenoblade, i like X, i like 2. The more the better. I believe Rex and Pyra/Mythra(or whoever sakurai chooses for XC2) will be dlc, unless sakurai does the smash 4 dlc route and plan/creates them in the few months XC2 was out. Also the whole sakurai bought a mecha thing helps out too.
She would be unique and also a fun run and gun/ stab and run moveset that i would love to try.

Pred:
Story mode- 64.4%
I have a feeling most people wouldnt love it but have to stay optimistic.

Noms:
Tethu-x3
Lana-x2