Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Squirtle
13.52% Chance
50.90% Want

Ivysaur
11.73% Chance
50.63% Want

Interestingly, the two pokemon pals did very similar today. Both seem to be a bit divisive amongst the community, as there were multiple high and low ratings for chance. The community however seems to agree that they are not that likely however.

@Yomi's Biggest Fan and @a smart guy were the closest for Squirtle, while @Nimbostratus and Opossum were the closest for Ivysaur. Each of you gets five extra nominations.

Today we shall be discussing Shantae in terms of Chance and Want. Please be civil today, this was the day aside from Ridley I was the most nervous for on the schedule so far. Also, please predict the scores for Dixie Kong tomorrow.

PhilosophicAnimal thanks again for the noms .

 

[andimidna]

Woah, that’s a lot of extra noms. I really thought people would be less hopeful.

Shantae:

She seems really cool. I have a little trouble seeing her over Shovel Knight, but I can feasibly imagine it. I think their support was pretty close to equal, and she’s been around. There’s also a slim chance that both could be added, since they were certainly both highly ranked on the ballot. I think they’re clearly both contenders to look out for.

Chance: 18%
Leaning towards it’s more likely we don’t see here, but neither way would leave me shocked.
Want: 75%
She looks really cool. Gotta love hair fighters, speaking of

Dixie Kong prediction: 60%
x 5 Midna

Edit: Others’ explanations made me reduce my chance score from 33% to 18%.

 

[Opossum]

Shantae time!

Chance: 2%
I'll be honest, when it comes to indies, there are very few that I think have a shot. And by few, I mean pretty much just Shovel Knight since Nintendo kinda supports the series a lot. So any non-shovel-y indies are a harder sell.

Want: 1%
Not really interested at all, but the music is pretty nice.

Predicting a 48% for Dixie
Nominating Celica x10 so the queen secures her throne

 

[Morbi]

Shantae

Chance: 5%

Unfortunately Shantae was clearly the loser of the two horse race between her and Shovel Knight. His series has maintained its relevance, at least from the Nintendo perspective while hers, well, it is not bad, per se; however, I do not believe she has enough credibility to make it into Smash.

Want: 100%

She is definitely among the most unique characters, Nintendo or otherwise, and I vastly prefer her over Shovel Knight as is (unless he used abilities from the other knights, such as Plague Knight, and even then, her aesthetic design, well, she has one. Shovel Knight is basically boring Reinhardt who is himself basically just a boring knight.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Shantae
Chance: 30%
Can't call it a sure thing, but this seems like the prime time for her Smash debut.

Want: 90%
Definitely among my most-wanted.

Nominate 2B x5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Shantae

Chance: 35%

Indie Characrer who has appeared on Nintendo stuff before, I believe. She's unique enough, though I feel Shovel Knight is her main competition, which is why I lowered her chances a bit.

Want: 50%

I'm indifferent. Her design may have some people up in arms, but I don't really care much. Genies typically are depicted as such.

Prediction for Dixie Kong: 76.8%

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 10%
I don't feel like she's famous enough to fight for one of the coveted 3rd party slots.

Want: 0%
I've played one of her games and it was good but I still have no attachment to her.

noms: Tethu X5

prediction: Dixie: 56.37%

 

[Runic_SSB]

Shantae

Chance: 20%
She has more of a chance than other 3rd parties, but much less of a chance than others.

Want: 10%
I don't like her games, at all.

Dixie Kong prediction: 65%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x3

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Shantae

Chance: 4%

Quite a few stars need to aline for Shantae to make it into Smash. She has to beat some insane competition in the form of other Indie characters like Shovel Knight, and that's if we're even getting an Indie representative in the first place. She's not impossible, but there are very few factors in her favour

Want: 30%

I wouldn't hate it if she got in, but I'd prefer several other Indie characters over her.

Prediction for Dixie Kong: 67%

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not Urbosa

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

She has a fanbase, I'll give you that.

Still, I think she's cooled off in chance a lot since the last round of speculation. I know they just had the Nindies showcase, but Shantae's not on the list of top-sellers, at least according to Kotaku. Her biggest competition is and always has been Shovel Knight, and he's in a much better place than she is.

Never played the game, so all I know of her is the fanbase from here. And her character design. And as a Zelda fan, if we're going to have some Bedlah Babe in the game, I'd rather a Gerudo.

Prediction for Dixie: 50.0%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae

Chance: 2%

I guess there's a chance for this indie character to join, but she seems like a vocal minority request to me (at least when it came to the ballot). I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Want: 25%

If she gets in, fine. But there are a plethora of other characters, both first and third party, that interest me more.

Prediction: Dixie Kong - 46.5%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Y'know, I'm gonna go ahead and do the next one, just to get ahead.

Day fourteen--the genie who borders on tasteless.

Shantae

Chance: 5%

NOT the indie character I would give much hope to. Shovel Knight had an amiibo. Even Commander Video had a smash trophy. Shantae, while loyal to Nintendo throughout the years, has gotten no more attention from Nintendo than either of these, and arguably less than even some newer indies. She's definitely got moveset potential, but I'd argue that that mostly hinges on whether transformations will be allowed. Other than those, her only possible moves would come from Pirate's Curse, which are standard pirate elements that could be said of any pirate character (ahem...Captain Syrup,) and don't really embody Shantae's essence anyway, or hair-whipping, which would obviously be easier for Nintendo to implement through Dixie. So, between being arguably less popular or notable than other indies, she may have difficulty with her moveset, depending on transformations. I just don't see it happening.

Want: 50%

I wouldn't complain. Her games are pretty fun, if a little...fanservicey. I just think other characters can do what she does better.

Prediction: Dixie Kong

Chance: 63.55%

Nominations

Marx x2
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x3

 

[JamesDNaux]

1/2 Genie Hero

Chance: 0%
Indies are barely above non-video game characters in terms of chances for Smash. Never gonna happen.

Want: 10%
I like Shantae, but she has no place in Smash.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Shantae

Chance: 2%

Like I said before, I feel like if there is an Indie rep it will be Shovel Knight since he is one of the most popular indie games.

Want: 4%

I'm probably going to get some hate but I just don't understand the hype for her. Her games don't looks bad but she doesn't really seem that amazing. I feel there are plenty of third parties like Rayman and Bomberman who are much more iconic and deserve to get in first. Would still be better than a Rabbid getting in though!

 

[Ura]

Waifu Genie

Chance: 10%

I don't see her as being likely especially when her rival is Shovel Knight who's more popular than her. I don't even think Smash will have indy characters at all. That being said I don't think she's impossible to add.

Want: 50%

Indifferent to her inclusion.

Prediction: Dixie Kong

Chance: 64%
Want: 45%

Nomination

Andy X 5

 

[Quetzal77]

Shantae
Chance: 10%
I don't see Indies happening but she's one of the more likely ones if they were considered.

Want: 25%
She would be fun. I don't particularly want her but I wouldn't mind either.

Dixie prediction: 65%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), , Mipha, Neku (TWEWY) x2

 

[wildvine47]

Shantae

Chance: 35% - She's pretty much the only other indie aside from Shovel Knight with a legitimate shot. The two of them are the King and Queen of indies after all, and personally, having one without the other feels wrong. It is a legitimate possibility though, and I wager most see them as competition rather than a package deal, Sakurai and co. included. WayForward seems very very willing to reach out and ask for a slot, much like they did during the Smash ballot era, so if she doesn't get in, it'll be because of a hard no from Sakurai. I don't know exactly how likely that is, but let's say a 70% chance of any indie rep, split evenly between Shantae and Shovel Knight.

Want: 50% - I'm not really sold on Smash needing indies just yet, but if it's going to be anyone, I'd want it to be her and Shovel Knight. Not or though, and. Personally, just a single indie rep would make them really stick out like a sore thumb to me, so if one gets in, my want for the other is going to shoot up to 100% so the other being a lone indie doesn't bother me forever. For now though, it's either both or neither. So 50% sounds about right.

Dixie Kong Prediction: 66.88%

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Shantae

Chance - 1%

She is a western third party character, so her chances are already in the gutter. Even just in terms of western 3rd parties, she has to compete with extremely iconic characters like Rayman and especially Crash Bandicoot.
The only thing she has going for her is fan support from the ballot, and even then, it seems like a lot of it has worn off. She isn't a 'King K. Rool-esqe' case where his popularity across the internet stayed about the same, and she most certainly isn't a 'Bandana Waddle Dee-esqe' case where his popularity took a significant jump.

Want - 0%

I do not think indie characters have a place in Super Smash Brothers as playable characters.

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x5

 

[Aetheri]

Shantae

Chance: 15%
She's had quite the push during Smash 4's DLC, but it seems momentum has began to subside for the half genie hero as time went on, however Wayforward and Nintendo are still on pretty good terms and they are one of the bigger Indie companies that's been supporting Nintendo systems lately...plus she has a much richer history with Nintendo compared to pretty much any Indie character which is something else to consider...

I don't think the fact that she's an indie character would necessarily get in the way of her inclusion moreso the competition with other characters (indie or no) that would be a greater detriment...

Want: 50%
I think she'd be a cool addition...she's got a lot to work with whether it's her magic, weapons or transformations...

Although there is certain other hair based fighter I'd rather have...

----

Predictions:
Dixie Kong-62.18%
This isn't that hair based fighter btw...

----

Nominations:
Zelda Newcomer x5
That hair based fighter would fit here though...

 

[NintenRob]

Shantae
Chance 1%
Indie character
Want 0%
Indie character

Nominate Skull kid x1
Parabo and Satebo x4

Prediction
Dixie Kong 69%

 

[kiteinthesky]

Okay, this is my first time doing a Rate Their Chances post; be gentle.

Shantae

Chance: 20%

She'd be a really good indie choice, but I just get that sinking feeling that she'd much more likely turn out to be an assist trophy. She seems like the kind of character they'd make into one. I don't know if she has enough pull to get on the roster; we must also remember she faces competition from other indie characters such as Shovel Knight.

Want: 50%

I'm kind of indifferent to her myself, though that's due to the fact that I'm not really big on indie games.

Dixie Kong prediction: 75%

I just feel like we might get more than one DK rep this time around, and the only other obvious choice aside from K. Rool is her, so barring some disappointing left-field choice from Nintendo, she'll likely get in.

Nominations:

Geno x5 -- who'd you think I was going to nominate? The Tetris blocks?

 

[chemo]

Shantae

Chance: 20%

Considering all the other characters that could be lined up for Smash I somewhat doubt Shantae will get in, at least at launch. However, the character still has her relevance and popularity so I think it's totally in the realm of possibilities.

Want: 25%

I know little about her home series and there's plenty of other third-party characters I would rather see in Smash, but it seems like she would be fun to play as.

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[Graizen]

Shantae
Chances: 30%
Want: 70%

I really LOVE her games! But because it's an Indie game I do not think the odds are good. So even though I think she's super cool, I do not think she have good chances.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Shantae

Chances 40%: Her company actually went full steam when the Ballot was up. They really wanted to get her in and I think they will try twice as hard this time around. Not a guarantee but, it does mean it'll be a fight on behalf of the company to get her in.

Want 75%: I never played the Shantae series but in my opinion based on her history with Nintendo she deserves to be in Smash even more than Shovel Knight. I think she would make a great addition to smash Bros.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shantae

Chance: 10%

If we get any idie reps joining the roster she has to compete with other major indie characters like Shovel Knight, Quote or Sans.

Want: 20%

I've yet to touch an Shantae game.

Predictions: Dixie 51.3%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voice clips x3 Hades x2

 

[Wyoming]

Shantae

Chance - 1%
This is an instance where the Internet over thinks a character's importance. She has a fan base sure, but she's a western character in a relatively small indie franchise. With Shovel Knight, Undertale, Binding of Isaac, Super Meat Boy being bigger indie pulls than Shantae from the top of my head I don't see where her chances lie. Even though the series has been loyal to Nintendo and has a long history on their systems, she's so insignificant on a grand scale I don't see how she'd get into Sakurai's thoughts.

Well....there's the ballot. But then you add the massive list of third party characters that are more popular and recognizable against her!

Overall I don't rate any indie characters' chances highly. I'll believe it when I see it....

Want - Abstain
I know nothing about her, so for the first time I'll abstain from voting in this category.

Dixie prediction: 59.3% (chance)

Noms: Phoenix Wright x2, Black Shadow x3

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Shantae
Chance: 7% - Nintendo relevancy is a lot for an indie character. I honestly think it's between her and Shovel Knight, though I think she is personally more likely due to her history.
Want: 90% - I'd love to have the Half-Genie Hero join the fray.

Prediction: Dixie Kong
Chance: 34.69%
Want: 89.41%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Fane]

Shantae

Chance: 15%
She's a popular third party indie pick, but if they were to pick any Indie rep it'd definitely be Shovel Knight. There's no contest there. I think his existence almost entirely renders Shantae's chances to be near non-existent.

Want: 0%
Don't really want more third party characters, one of the few reasons I didn't enjoy the Smash DLC much because there's a large variety of first party characters and series that are underrepresented or not represented at ALL that deserve it. Prioritize your own characters Nintendo.

Dixie Kong Prediction:

Chance: 68%
Want: 76%

Nominations:
Poipole (Pokemon) x2
Petey Piranha (Super Mario Bros) x2
Azura (Fire Emblem Fates) x1

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae.
Chance. 5 percent. If we are looking at all potential newcomers (seriously no indie can compete with Nintendo's own])

If you look at just indie characters I feel her chances jump up to 50 percent, she may not be as popular is modern indie character's like her often sited competition Shovel Knight. But she has one very important trait that no other Indie contender has.
That being a legacy. Her fist title dates back 16 years to 2002 on the Game Boy Color. She has more games then the other Indie competition. And every one of them are on a Nintendo system, with most of them debuting on a Nintendo system.
And there has been a massive push by Wayforward to get Shantae known in Japan and it seems to be working.
Also a fun fact Her Kickstarter for Half Genie Hero actually pulled more money and backers then Shovel Knight.


Want 100% She's not even my favorite character in gaming. She's not even in the top 5. But I honestly feel she fits perfectly in smash and would bring a completely unique move set. She deserves a hypothetical Indie slot

Predictions Dixie. 60 percent. Needs to happen.

 

[Shinuto]

Shantae
Chance: 20% overall in terms of ALL potential newcomers
I think she is the most deserving of indie (Shovel Knight still a bit too young and lacking in games in my opinion.) and overall I think her legacy and popularity make her a contender at least in terms of indies. Granted she's not AS popular as Shovel Knight but I personally think some users here are underplaying her as less popular than other indies( I mean her HGH's kickstarter got more money and backers than Shovel Knight's so that says SOMETHING). Regardless, when put against big name 3rd parties and 1st party potential newcomers she has much lower chances. I'd argue that if an indie character were picked Sakurai and his team would choose her due to her history and legacy with Nintendo, as they've shown to not simply do whats popular (exceptions being Bayonetta and Cloud)

Want: 100%
I think her series could bring a lot of good stuff to the table in terms of a stage based on Scuttle Town and her god tier music. She's one of my favorite video game characters somewhere in the Top 20 at least. Plus think of the Bayonetta/Shantae fanart, two DANCERS!

Prediction: Dixie Kong - 40% I think K. Rool with him getting a mii costume means the team KNOWS he is wanted by fans and he has history as being DK series main villain. Dixie is more relevant but I feel that K Rool being more unique as a character and his place as a villain gives him a slight edge.

Nominations:
KOS-MOS x2
Lip x2
Ashley x1

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Why are you thinking about Bayonetta amd Shantae fanart? I hope it isn't perversion.

 

[Shinuto]

Why are you thinking about Bayonetta amd Shantae fanart? I hope it isn't perversion.

uhh they're both dancers....why are you assuming its perverted? They can have way too serious dance off!

 

[DNeon]

Shantae

Chance: 30%

Wayforward has been pretty loyal to Nintendo, and they've been featured by Nintendo multiple times so they're in their eye, but it'll take a lot to be the first indie rep.

Want: 60%

I think she's certainly interesting, and imo deserving. Not hugely invested but I think it'd be cool.

Dixie Prediction: 58.34%

Nominations:
Andy x 5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Shantae

Chance 35%
Want 65%

Indies might happen this time around, and she seems like one of the likelier ones to me. I say this especially because she has more history with Nintendo than some others.

Waluigi x3
Kamek x2

 

[Pennate]

Shantae:

Chance: 5%
The odds are against Shantae appearing in Smash 5. Guest characters face inherently higher competition to enter Smash Bros. due to the limited number of slots allocated to their presence, and Shantae isn't notable enough to earn a place on the roster. Shantae's best shot would occur if Sakurai were specifically looking for an indie character to add to Smash 5, but, even then, Shantae is overshadowed by Shovel Knight, whose higher popularity and great relationship with Nintendo make him the likelier candidate by far. Nevertheless, Way Forward is on relatively good terms with Nintendo, and Shantae's fanbase was vocal during the Smash Ballot, so there's a minuscule chance Nintendo would consider her as a playable character.

Want: 0%
I have no attachment to this character, and I am not interested in her inclusion.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x3
Ganon x2

 

[ShinyRegice]

Shantae chances: 5%
I think an indie character is something that could happen, but for the base game I'm doubtful, it's something I see as more likely for DLC, and I think there are more famous indie titles that could get represented before Shantae, such as Shovel Knight and Undertale (although the later has close to no chance for the base game since the Switch port is to be released later).

Shantae want: 10%
I used to find her or any other indie a terrible idea for a Smash character cuz you know that was when I made a huge deal out of the >>>ICONIC, HUGE, TIMELESS POP CULTURAL VIDEO GAME ICONS<<< thing, but now I'm less dogmatic about Smash character selection and I can get behind the idea of a playable indie in Smash. That said, I don't really care about her, and I have no personal attachment to any indie character that's often discussed on this forum. If I had to choose one myself, I'd go for personal perceived popularity, and to be fair I don't often hear of Shantae outside Smashboards; I feel that Shovel Knight and Undertale are more prominent titles, so I'd go for either of them personally. (Again, I have no personal attachment to any of these titles.)

And yeah I know I put "iconic" and "icons" in the same sentence, I'm deliberately exaggerating to make fun of my old mindset.

Dixie Kong prediction: 54.55%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5
(and yeah I meant five, I copy-pasted from the nomination list and forgot to change to x5)

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae

Chance: 10%
I don't really have much to say here.

Want: 20%
Never played any of her games but if we were to have just one "indie rep" I'd rather have my boy Shovel Knight.

Dixie preidction: 54.37%

Nominating Decidueye x5

 

[Erimir]

Shantae has some competition in the retro-styled indie arena, mainly Shovel Knight. Indies in general might have some trouble getting in, since most of them are not big sellers. Many indies wouldn't make much sense as a Smash character (Meat Boy doesn't really do anything but run and jump, for example) but Shantae would have good move set potential.

But I'm not really sure what makes Shantae so prominent as to be likely to get a spot. Maybe she did well on the ballot, but we don't have access. There definitely seems to be some fanbase.

While I don't think an indie is all that likely, Shantae is probably one of the more likely ones, particularly since she has a stronger connection to Nintendo than some others.

Shantae chance: 4%
Shantae want: 45%
Maybe it would convince me to give her games a try. She seems like she would probably be alright. I don't hate the idea, but I'm not terribly interested either. Indifference, reduced a bit by my expectation that we're not getting that many newcomers and I'm not a huge fan of the character design.

Nominations: Roy x5

Dixie Kong prediction: 18%
I'm guessing she won't do as well as K Rool

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shantae

Chance: 6%
A lot of buzz around her during Sm4sh, but compare our other third parties and she doesn't really measure up;
: Mario's biggest rival mascot and one of the most iconic and recognisable video game characters of all time.
: Reinvented the run and gun genre, a big old nostalgia bomb
: Literally THE most recognisable video game character ever, the grandaddy of it all, pretty much Mr. Video Games. Everyone and their cat has heard of Pac-Man.
: If Pac-Man is Mr. Video Games, Ryu is very much Mr. Fighting Game. Everyone on the planet with access to video games knows Street Fighter and he's the face of this huge series.
: Pretty much the most famous JRPG hero ever from the most famous JRPG. I've never played Final Fantasy 7, but I know of Cloud.
: Okay, granted, Bayonetta is no where near the others levels of importance, and is only in due to the ballot.

Shantae's only real hope is she scored impressively enough in the ballot to be considered, but she's got a LOT of competition from other third parties alone such as Banjo-Kazooie, Shovel Knight, Rayman, Bomberman, Snake returning, Crash Bandicoot etc, all of whom I'd consider bigger names than herself.

She definitely has a dedicated fanbase, although the hype surrounding her seems to be less prominant at this point.

Want: 10%
To be fair, I'd prefer her to Shovel Knight and she's got some interesting moves, but I'd rather our next third party was a bigger deal.

I'm very much still in the place ShinyRegice was in Sm4sh wanting a more impressive third party name to stand alongside the likes of Sonic, Pac-Man and Ryu.

Dixie Kong prediction: 56.5%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Shantae

Chance: 1% - Very unlikely, but you never know.

Want: 0% - Definitely not a fan of Indies joining the roster.

Nominations: Midna x5