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I find it kinda unfair to lump third-parties and indies together. Yes, they're not first-parties, but they don't fill the same niches.
And while I gave a low score in chance, I don't think we should completely rid off the possibilities of indies in Smash, remember there was a Commander Video trophy in the Wii U version of Smash 4, and that Sakurai has very recently stated he plays to indie games regularly.
Yes, I know it should not be taken as a fact that an indie character is guaranteed to figure in Smash, but it may still be an indication that both Sakurai and Nintendo might not be that restrictive to this idea.
Want: 100%
She's among my top favorite video game characters ever, would fit like a glove among the Smash cast, would bring tons of new gameplay possibilities, neat selection of music tracks to listen to while smashing, and ultimately would open the gate for indie representation.
Chance: 3% - Not only is it difficult to see an indie character happening, but Shantae faces some tough competition from Shovel Knight, who is both more popular and has closer ties to Nintendo.
Want: 10% - As far as I see it she's just competition for Shovel Knight, who I legitimately want, and on her own she doesn't really appeal much to me, so no thanks.
Chance: 10%
Probably 1st or 2nd most likely Indie character, which isn't the greatest perspective, because they in general aren't that iconic, which I feel is an important part of 3rd parties that are being introduced. However, she does seem popular and her biggest rival's support has whittled down, so I wouldn't say impossible, just unlikely. I wouldn't expect her, but you never know, Sakurai is unpredictable.
Want: 35%
I don't care about her pretty much, no connection there. But I am kinda wary of 3rd parties, indie or not, because they could lower the chances of Rayman.
Chance- 5%
If we do get an indie character, I got a feeling it will be either Shovel Knight or Minecraft Man (who altough is now owned by a multi-billion dollar corperation, was once upon a time an indie character and is associated as such). She has a fair ammount of fans and long time standing with Nintendo, but never blew up like SK or MC, both of which are games that are more popular worldwide (SK to a lesser extent). I just dont see her getting picked any time soon.
Want- 1%
I have no attachment towards this character, and I think her hair based moveset could easily be applied to more recogizable 1st party characters like Midna or Dixie Kong. Speaking of which...
Shantae at the least definitely has a high amount of popularity in terms of the Smash 4 ballot to get considered for Smash Switch. However, I think Shovel Knight will be chosen if Sakurai willingly decides to add an indie representative in the game. Thinking hypothetically, I feel Sakurai will ask Nintendo to see which indie game is among the most profitable to choose a Smash character out of, with Sakurai likely having a lack of familiarity with indie developers from the Western territory. I would argue Sakurai has less knowledge of Western indie developers than Western third-parties, making communication of character negotiation much more complex But, I feel, if it does happen, including Shovel Knight would be the most profitable as it is most supported by Nintendo with the SK amiibo and notable marketing in Japan.
Shantae was fairly prominent during Smash 4 speculation, and her series has been Nintendo-friendly. Even so, I don’t think it’s large enough to justify inclusion. It seems most things she has in her favor are outmatched by Shovel Knight, and I don’t see two Indies getting in.
Want- 5%
Nothing personal against her, I just tend to be pretty dogmatic about third parties. I wouldn’t be mad to see her, but I also can’t muster any excitement for her inclusion in a Nintendo all-star game.
Dixie Kong Predictions- 49%
Nominations:
Dillon x8
Andy x2
These poor guys are slipping just because their fans are moving elsewhere since they were already at the top. When are more characters going to be added to the schedule so I don’t have to waste nominations making sure they get in next time?
Shantae
Chance: 4% - I’m very sceptical of our chances of ever getting a western third party character. Even if Sakurai wants to represent the Indie market she’s still drowned out by the competition.
Want: 20%
She is such a weird sittuation that still hasn't proper treatment yet... So I will give it a bit lowish chances but with the reminder she had got some back up from the Ballot.
Want: 70%
She is cool and pretty; her abilities are interesting.
___________
Prediction. Dixie Kong: 47.3% (the relevant Dong Expansion)
Want - 60%
I was really into... uh, one of them. I think it was pirate's curse. Although I really like her, I don't think she's a realistic choice for an indie character.
Celica x 119
Andy x 117
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 117
Professor Layton x 117
Dillon x 115
Shulk x 105
Bomberman x 102
Eggman x 101
Midna x101
Decidueye x 100
Waluigi x 97
Lucina x 95
Chibi Robo x 91
Skull Kid x87
Marx x 86
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 83
Shovel Knight x 82
Sora x 82
Concept: No Cuts x 81
Phoenix Wright x 79
Banjo Kazooie x 78
Doomguy x 76
Lucas x 75
Micaiah x 64
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x60
Jibanyan x60
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x58
Travis Touchdown x 53
Mewtwo x 52
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x51
Elma x49
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x47
New story mode x45
Geno x 45
Kamek x44
Excitebiker x43
Agumon x40
Labo Related Character x 39
Urban Champion x36
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x35
Simon Belmont x34
Roy x33
Qbby (from Boxboy) x31
Funky Kong x29
Susie (Kirby) x25
Ryu Hayabusa x25
Tsubasa Oribe x25
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x25
Hades x25
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 24
Ashley (WarioWare) x23
Concept Indie Character x 22
Concept: Code Name STEAM rep x22
Sans (Undertale) x22
Scizor x 21
Palutena x 21
Lloyd Irving x20
Arle Nadja x20
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Sophitia x20
Masked Link x19
2B x 18
Mipha x18
Lycanroc x18
Style Savvy Rep x 17
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Returning game mode: Smash Run x15
Azura x 15
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x15
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x15
Klonoa x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x15
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x15
Neku x 15
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x14
Takumi (FE Fates) x13
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Black Shadow x12
9-Volt (WarioWare) x12
Doshin the Giant x12
Bayonetta x12
Concept: New Mother Character x 10
Dark Matter (Kirby) X 10
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x10
Concept - Skyrim representation x10
Greninja x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Robin x 9
Pac-Man x8
Dark Samus x 8
Fawful x8
Impa x 8
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Mimikyu x 7
Concept: Custom Moves Return x7
Balloon Fighter x6
Medusa x 6
Viridi x6
Blue Bowser x6
Cloud x6
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Prince Fluff x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ray (Custom Robo) x 5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Sylux x5
Dark Matter Blade x5
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Mii Fighters x 4
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Cranky Kong x3
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Poipole (Pokemon) x3
Dragonborn x3
Lip (Panel de Pon) x2
King Boo x2
Tom Nook x2
Vaati x2
KOS-MOS x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Zangoose x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Tails x 2
Toadette x2
Petey Piranha x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Concept: Snipperclips representation x1
Tetra x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Endou Mamoru x1
Notes (lots of these today!):
Aaand...Dillon has finally been dethroned--soundly. Four characters have overtaken him, Celica leading the charge. Ouch. Has everyone lost their fire for the noble armored one?
Ooh, I've gotta give a shout out for those noms! One of the most eternally cool characters.
Not rude at all! I just had literally no clue who Doomguy was, lol. Sorry. I'll have to do some research...
On a side note, Doomguy has now shot up 20 noms because of my error. Apologies, Doomguy fans!
Unless I missed some under-the-table deal...that's too many noms, my man. I cut a Funky nom to even it out. If you'd rather cut a Travis one, let me know and I'll adjust next round.
YES! I've been waiting for someone to suggest this! Totally giving some noms to this next round.
I'm...gonna assume you meant five, lol.
You do you, my friend. I just hope you post under me next time.
New additions this round:
Dark Matter Blade x5
Poipole (Pokemon) x3
Petey Piranha x2
Blue Bowser x6
Dragonborn x3
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Sylux x5
Some interesting newbies on the list! Yooka-Laylee should be rather interesting...
And that's it! If anyone posted noms while I was writing this, I'll getcha next round. See you all then!
TCT~Phantom
what this you've found? Oh, it's the noms list. Just what you were looking for, am I right?
Chance - 20% - I'd think that Indies will get a reasonable shot in this game, and I view her as the second most likely next to Shovel Knight. I don't think any indie is more than 50% though, and Shovel Knight seems to have a big lead.
Want - 85% - I'd prefer her to Shovel Knight, and I'd like an indie character as well. Currently my most wanted third party, in fact.
Chance: 15%
It's no secret that the Nintendo Switch has provided a haven for indies. While the likely hood is slim, I could see Nintendo and Sakurai wanting to represent indies in a character. Shantae and Shovel Knight are probably the most likely indies to get in, but which one? Shantae has the most history, but Shovel Knight's one game is very popular. The only other indie character I can see getting in over them is Quote from Cave Story, but that's about it.
Want: 90%
I like both Shantae and Shovel Knight, but I vastly prefer Shantae as a character and series of games. She's one of my favorite female protagonists in gaming (right next to Kat from Gravity Rush), and I can easily imagine her fighting style on the battlefield. She may not have the star power has other third parties, but she would be a great addition.
Also any chance to have Jake Kaufman music in Smash is a plus in my book.
Chance: 3%
Complete tossup. I personally don't think she's got as good of a shot as she did last go-around. Nor do I really think much of the indies have a decent shot at all, for that matter. I could see maybe Quote or Shovel Knight, but not really any others - and their chances aren't really good either.
And, you know, there's other non-Nintendo folks out there with some good prestige.
Want: Abstain
And I personally don't know how to feel regarding indies in Smash. I don't really care for them being in Smash too greatly, barring Quote.
Chance: 5%
I don't think indies are gonya make it nya, even with their popularity nya.
Want: 30%
Don't really care for her or her games nya, plus I'd just rather nyot see indie characters at all nya. She's kinda cute though I suppose mew, so I gave her an extra 5% percentage for that nyaaaa~
I'm not gonna count her out of the ball game, but considering the tons of other slot options available to pick from that are MUCH closer to Nintendo itself, I ain't sure what to think. That being said, I think Smash is becoming more of a "celebration of gaming's biggest icons who wanna be in their game." Guys like King K. Rool should've been in as characters long ago, but that all depends on how hard their owners wanna cling to 'em.
90% Want
I was HEAVILY on the Shantae train during the Smash 4 Ballot hype, and I still kind of am despite my loyalties now going to my own obscure character huehuehue. Of course, I don't want her in because she's some cute, belly dancing half-djinn waifu that's just a bonus but because of the hope for Smash Switch having transformations. It'd be nice if Shantae's moveset was based around her animal transformations that's not the stop-and-go crap she has in her games, therefore she could be both unique and actually fun to play as. My general reason for not having it at 100%, however, is because I'm not sure if she should be THE indie rep for Smash. I feel like if anything, that belongs to Quote from Cave Story. That was made by one dude with time and dedication, man, and is a big part of what made Indies become popular..
So uh... I ain't got no hope for this, but...I wanna nominate Kunio from the Kunio-kun/River City series. Putting all the chips in I can for that one.
Shantae
Chance: 5% Sorry for being so harsh on this one, but I don't think she's likely. Her main competition is with Shovel Knight, and she doesn't compare well to him. Her only redeeming quality is longevity. She does have more games under her belt than him, but none of them have been as successful as Shovel Knight. Shovel Knight has a line of Amiibo's licensed by Nintendo. Shovel Knight is a more common household name. Shovel Knight is one of the top 10 sellers on Switch, where Shantae is not. All that adds up to Shovel Knight stealing Shantae's spot.
Want: 30% She could be an interesting character, but I don't have any connection to her. I'm not sure she's the indie all-star that would feel right in this roster, so I'm not supporting her. Still, I feel bad for her fans, and hope they get some representation in Smash. Maybe she could get a trophy?
I'm not sure if we'll get an indie, and if we do I think Shovel Knight has the biggest shot by a sizeable amount. I feel he's more well known and has more Nintendo support. She does have her history on the system but I doubt it's enough.
Want: 25%
I like Shantae, but I'm a little more picky when it comes to third parties and I'm not sure I'm ready for an indie character yet.
Dixie Kong prediction: 59.27%
Chance: 5%
She unfortunately doesn't carry the same level of recognition as other more well known third parties, and popularity-wise she seems to be lacking the same push as some of her fellow Indies like Shovel Knight. She did get a decent amount of talk during the ballot though, so I still consider her a possibility, but right now I don't see her as much more then that.
Want: 35%
Not too interested, but I wouldn't complain that much if she was included.
If any third-party Indie gets in, it's either gonna be her or Shovel Knight. But I honestly think she had a better shot last time. I don't think she's got much going for her aside from some amount of support.
You can bet I'll be legitimately shocked if any Indie character gets into Smash any time soon. Third-party Indies have never really had a good chance, imo.
Want: 20%
No attachment to this character and very little interest in her being in Smash, I have to say.
Chance - 40%
I honestly think she's got a fair shot. I feel this is the Smash for indies, as Nintendo's been pushing them harder since Smash 4's release, and Sakurai and Nintendo were pretty open to putting third parties in last game. Shantae's been around since the GBC, and Pirate's Curse was very successful as far as I know; it also was recently rereleased on the Switch. Not to mention how hard Matt Bozon pushed for her during the Ballot. I'd say she's top 2 most likely if Nintendo puts in an indie rep.
Want - 65%
She's pretty unique and has her various transformations, special moves from her first game, hair whipping, and items/powerups from across her games to use for a moveset. I also thought Pirate's Curse was a very solid game, so I think it'd be neat to see some representation from the Shantae series.
Chances: 20%
There are much more popular 3rd party reps to pick from, even if you want to have an indie game rep (Shantae is considered an indie game right?) I see someone like shovel knight or even an undertale rep making it in before hand.
Want: 35%
Played a little bit of the latest entry in this series, was not bad but the franchise just does not stand out enough to me to want Shantae in over other 3rd party or indie characters.
Chance: 3% - Not only is it difficult to see an indie character happening, but Shantae faces some tough competition from Shovel Knight, who is both more popular and has closer ties to Nintendo.
Want: 10% - As far as I see it she's just competition for Shovel Knight, who I legitimately want, and on her own she doesn't really appeal much to me, so no thanks.
I've always been confused by the amiibo thing, did YCG ask of it from Nintendo or did Nintendo come to them? if the first then the amiibo has less weight since we dont know if others have tried to get an amiibo and Nintendo declined or if they simply havent felt the need to ask. same with the publishing thing, I want to know how that got started.
Yacht Club Games has only existed since well Shovel Knight, it being their only game, and only thing they've worked on so far, to take WayForward, they have made tons of licensed games and ton of their own games on Nintendo systems. Shovel Knight's company hasn't done much outside of expansions on SK. The only other thing has been publishing Azure Striker Gunvolt Striker Pack
Ok, I have made analyses for every character that's up on the schedule for rating. The character I look forward to seeing thoughts on the most is Dixie Kong. I have a big analysis ready for her.
(I am also very curious what this 'Something special' rating will be)
Chance: 2.5%.
1 in 40 sounds about fair. Most everyone who has already given her a low rating has stated my thoughts. She has some things going for certainly, and if she were first party with the same exact resume she might already be in (as a first party character she would have more going for her than Isaac or Chibi-Robo). But as a third party character she isn't particularly significant and has some serious competition. There's no rule that we only can get one indie rep but there's also no rule that we will even get one at all. Regardless she isn't first in line for that anyways.
Want: 25%
There's been real characters I've been much unhappier with than I would be with her. but there's at least 30 I would prefer before her. Her games have all been quite good-to-great, but I don't feel she best represents indies or even Nindies.
Nominations:
Nia & Dromarch x3
Tom Nook x1
Isabelle x1
Chance: 2%
If Sakurai suddenly announced that the next smash was going to have two indie reps, she'd be at 80%. As it stands, there's still Shovel Knight and the likely chance there will be no indies to begin with.
Want: 40%
I'm prefer Shovel Knight, but otherwise she'd be fine. Pirate's Curse was fun, but not phenomenal.
Predicting Dixie Kong at 40%
Nominating Shovel Knight x3
Chibi-Robo x2
Brash the Bear x0
Shantae
Chance: 20%
I don't see any indie characters appearing in Smash, but if they do, it'll more likely be Shovel Knight. But Shantae has a history with Nintendo, so it's not impossible I guess
Want: 80%
I've only played Half Genie Hero, but id love to have Shantae in the game.
Chance - 10%
There seems to be a good relation behind Wayforward and Nintendo, considering how a lot of their games are exclusive. I just don't really think she'll make it in when we have indie devs with more of a connection to Nintendo, like with Shovel Knight.
Want - 40%
Yeah, sure, why not? She'd be interesting to see. Like, they could probably do a lot of fun things regarding her transformation abilities, and she already has enough attacks to work with on her own, so it'd be a decent fit. I don't have much attachment to the character, but I'd be more fine with it than some other characters.
I don't think it is at all unlikely that we get at least one indie character. Switch has been very big for indie games, indie games themselves are fairly big right now, Sakurai has stated enjoying indie games, and if I recall correctly SK/Shantae did well on the Ballot. Pirate's Curse was a 3DS eShop best seller. Third party lowers chances a good deal and we don't have precedent, so I don't want to put her too high. But while I would rank Shovel Knight higher, seeing as he is more of an indie icon and his creators very much like to put him in games, Shantae arguably is more likely given she has repeatedly appeared on Nintendo consoles and got started on the Game Boy.
Shantae has appeared in at least one Nintendo game as well. I dunno, I'm gonna high roll this one, because I feel like while there's a good number of possibilities where she never gets considered, she seems solidly likely to get in if she IS considered, and kind of has the feel of a character in the same vein as a "retro" choice that Sakurai would like. So, high roll it is!
Want: 65%
She has pretty cool powers for a Smash set, she serves as indie representation like I want while also repping an older Nintendo era (Her first game was for the Game Boy Color back in 2002!), she would provide some pretty cool music to get remixed in Smash form, she isn't one of my most wanted characters but I would be pretty excited to see her in (and realistically my excitement would probably be beyond this want because there are a good number of indies that would make me think "wow, we're actually getting an indie character!"). So, yeah, I am pretty for Shantae.
Predictions
Dixie Kong: 50.1%
Nominations
Hyper Light Drifter x1 (Is going to be on the Switch, so I assume they count: If not switch this to Shovel Knight)
Dillon x2
Travis Touchdown x1
Kamek x1
I cut a Funky nom to even it out. If you'd rather cut a Travis one, let me know and I'll adjust next round.
