Chance - 3%
I'll be doing this a little differently than usual. Let us start with the pros for Phoenix's potential inclusion in Smash Switch.
-His parent company, Capcom, has already worked with the series and has added two characters into Smash Bros. This opens the possibility of multi-character representation from the same company.
-Capcom are increasingly open to having Phoenix and Ace Attorney content into other games. He had a crossover with Professor Layton, made an appearance in Marvel vs Capcom 3, was one the Capcom character in Project Zone X 2, music in a Japan-exclusive rhythm game, and as a character in a puzzle game.
-A new game is 100% in the works for the Switch to release this year or early 2019 and will be announced either soon or at E3. The latest release was 2016's Spirit of Justice. These two games can fit into the development cycle for Smash Switch when considering the roster.
-A new second season of the has been confirmed to debut in Fall, focusing on the third game - Trials & Tribulations.
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Sakurai has met with Shu Takumi*, the creator of the Ace Attorney, in 2016. Yes, Sakurai has friends he can easily interact with whenever and for whatever, but the fact they are friends and met each other in 2016 is interesting.
*Takumi may not be the director of the main line games anymore, but he continues to work on a series spin off Dai Gyakuten Saiban - focusing on Phoenix's ancestor and Sherlock Holmes. Also, he is the supervisor of the Ace Attorney anime and still works for Capcom.
This is my one neutral point: his popularity. The Ace Attorney fandom tends to be somewhat tight-knit as a whole and has decent numbers in players, so from the ballot it is possible he did ok, but nowhere near the top requested ones.
But.....why the low chance percentage then, Connery?
-Capcom already has two characters. We don't know how much Sakurai wants to cap a company, but this seems like an obstacle to me.
-Capcom, by itself, has a lot of internal competition. Leon Kennedy and a Monster Hunter are more recognizable and from more iconic series that can easily be vouched for a spot instead.
-In terms of third parties, Phoenix remains niche. He's on the same boat as Layton - both historically on Nintendo systems, but only known to small parts of the install base.
-The newer Ace Attorney releases are digital downloads only, hurting its accessibility for new players on Nintendo systems. (Although, granted, they are now available on the Android and iOS markets)