Doomguy
Chance: 12%
Want: 30%
In the long and storied history of FPSs, there's no other game that's caused bigger waves than Doom. It's not merely old and successful, it's core to video games in a way almost no other games, let alone mascots, can claim.
Which of course higlights that Doom is a purely Western franchise, a denomination that's struggling to get anyone into Smash in the first place. Up to this day, Japan still doesn't care much for FPS games, nor really saw its industry changed by their introduction into the landscape. Nintendo's newfound appreciation of the genre is attributed mostly to Splatoon, one of the few shooters too distantly connected to Doom to really cite it as part of its ancestry.
That's not forgetting that Doomguy had never been a consideration until this console generation, and not without reason. His last outing for the longest time had been the largely-disappointing Doom 3, and both Bethesda and id Software had been commited members of the Multiplat-minus-Nintendo club between the N64 and Switch eras. So despite his age, Doomguy is essentialy starting from scratch as far as support bandwagonning is concerned.
But while there might be other more appropriate western characters that ought to be included first, I don't think there's any better choice for a real FPS inclusion than Doomguy. Not a high bar to clear, I admit, but between Bethesda's newfound support of Nintendo, an unquestionable lineage, and a memorable panache, he's got a much, much bigger shot than someone like Master Chief.
(I'd really not worry about how to incorporate his trademark knack for violance. If you want to see visceral power done well in Smash, observe Ganondorf.)
Prediction:
Anna - 24%
Nominations:
Viridi x5
