Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

Skull Kid

Chance - 7.5% - All he has going for him is inertia of popularity. While he has some things going for him, ultimately he mostly just a one-off villain with no reason to appear.

Want - 20% - Give me my toon character, darn it!


Predictions

Doom Guy - 23.23% - Going to be interesting, for sure...


Nominations

Dark Pit X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

PK_Wonder thanks .

Here is the schedule for the next week or so. I feel that these structured days will be a good benefit. Cutoff for the next rated schedule will be 4/19.


4/12 Doomguy
4/13 Anna (Fire Emblem)
4/14 Phoenix Wright
4/15 Dr. Eggman
4/16 Jibanyan
4/17 Marx (Kirby)
4/18 Veteran: Lucina
4/19 Concept: No Cuts

 

[wildvine47]

PK_Wonder thanks .

Here is the schedule for the next week or so. I feel that these structured days will be a good benefit. Cutoff for the next rated schedule will be 4/19.


4/12 Doomguy
4/13 Anna (Fire Emblem)
4/14 Phoenix Wright
4/15 Dr. Eggman
4/16 Jibanyan
4/17 Marx (Kirby)
4/18 Veteran: Lucina
4/19 Concept: No Cuts

Question: For No Cuts, does that mean No Cuts as in "nobody gets cut from Smash 4 to Smash Switch", or No Cuts as in "no cuts from the entire series/every veteran is in Smash Switch."

I feel like that's a pretty important distinction that ought to be set well ahead of time.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Question: For No Cuts, does that mean No Cuts as in "nobody gets cut from Smash 4 to Smash Switch", or No Cuts as in "no cuts from the entire series/every veteran is in Smash Switch."

I feel like that's a pretty important distinction that ought to be set well ahead of time.

No Cuts from Smash 4s roster.

 

[PK_Wonder]

PK_Wonder thanks .

Here is the schedule for the next week or so. I feel that these structured days will be a good benefit. Cutoff for the next rated schedule will be 4/19.

Cool stuff! Shouldn't the cutoff be 4/18 though so people know what to predict on 4/19?

Edit: I should be able to update again midday tomorrow.

 

[Erureido]

Skull Kid

Chance: 20%

He's a popular Zelda character, but being a one-off starring in one major game that isn't quite relevant right now hurts his chances similar to other popular Zelda candidates.

Want: 0%

Not interested. I've got other Zelda reps I am more interested in seeing.

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Predictions

Doomguy (Doom): 17.53%

His series was important in creating the first-person Rated-M shooter genre many are familiar with, and Bethesda has recently been opening to the Switch. The lower scores will probably come from people pointing out Doom's violent nature.

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Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Skull Kid want: 100%

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[PsySmasher]

Skull Kid

Chance: 22%
Want: 45%

Predictions
Doomguy: 14.56%

Nominations
Arle Nadja x 5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Skull Kid

Chance: 5%

We haven't even been able to get a proper Ganondorf in the game, I have next to no hope of getting ANY Zelda newcomer.

Want: 100%

He seems like a character that would be genuinely fun to play as.

Doomguy Predictions: 30%

Noms: Prince Sable x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 20%
It's not great he's a pretty popular pick for Zelda newcomers but there's a lot of characters people want to see from that series plus popularity isn't a major deciding factor or K Rool would be in and I'm not even really a supporter. Plus you know not relevant and a one-off. I suppose MM's remake could help him but I doubt it. He's gonna stay an AT.

Want: 40%
I like MM and I like Skull kid so I wouldn't mind seeing him, however; the Legend of Zelda series has near perfect representation. Link, Ganondorf, and Zelda are the three main characters who are always involved in the struggle for the Triforce, Toon Link represents the cell shaded line of LoZ that became popular and still continues even now, and Shiek embodies the one-off companions that always lead help Link on his journey. The only way to truly make it perfect is to deFalconize Ganondorf or at least give him Dead Man's Volley and possibly add Vaati since he is the only reoccurring villain and is basically the Ganondorf of the cell shaded LoZ games. Even then Vaati is minor so I understand not adding him to Smash (though not being in Warriors was straight garbage). The Legend of Zelda doesn't need more reps, what people actually mean is they just want more Legend of Zelda characters, they don't care about representing the series. Personally, I would hate to mess up the near flawless representation of the LoZ part of the roster for any character one-off character but if we had too Skull Kid is one of the best choices and far better than getting either Impa or Tingle.

noms: Tethu X5

Prediction-Doom Guy - 9.85%

 

[slambros]

Skull Kid

Chance: 10%
Please correct me if I am wrong; but while multi-representative series (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Fire Emblem) introduce newcomers to Smash fairly frequently, they have yet to reach backwards to include a character that has lost prime focus in their series. So I can see why recency bias would affect chances. I also think that there is a highly competitive environment regarding Zelda newcomers especially with the myriad of new characters introduced in Breath of the Wild. The best thing Skull Kid has on his side is the successful Majora's Mask remake and inclusion in Hyrule Warriors (correct me if I am wrong on the latter).

Want: 100%
Skull Kid would bring something new, fresh, and interesting to the table. He is exactly the kind of character I look for when deciding which characters to support.

Predictions for Doom Guy:
11.77%

Nominations:
Elma x5

 

[Wyoming]

Skull Kid:

Chance: 5%
Like Midna, the relevancy isn't there but he is popular. That will be his main asset.

Competition for Zelda newcomer is also pretty strong. No doubt they all split the votes in the ballot so their numbers aren't as outstanding as other series that have 1-2 characters the fandom all essentially agree on.

I think an assist trophy is where he will remain.

Want: 10%
Majora's Mask was a decent game, and this was a decent final boss (not close to my favorite in Zelda alone, but decent regardless). He's a character I never really saw as a Smash Bros. character in any way.

Doomguy prediction: 11.7%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Skull Kid Chance:
15%
They at least acknowledge his existence, so I wouldn't say he is completely out of the running. But, if they are going to at a new Zelda rep, he is probably lower down on the list.

Skull Kid Want:
60%
I don't really care that much about Zelda, but if we're getting another rep, which I think we are, I would hope it to be Skull Kid.

Doomguy Predictions: 14.28%

Nominations:
Elma x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Skull Kid

Chance 25%: He is among the most popular Zelda characters in spite being a one off character. I'd say he is one of the most popular villains that isn't Ganondorf. I think he also has among the greatest chances to be added in terms of a one shot character. However, we don't know if we will get a new Zelda representative. I'd say if we were going to get a one shot Zelda character it'd either be Skull Kid or Midna. Impa or Tingle might have a greater chance but who knows?

Want 100%: I would love it if Skull Kid made it into Smash Bros! He is among my most wanted characters!

Nomination:
Jibanyan 5x

 

[Pennate]

Skull Kid:

Chance: 10%

Want: 50%

Nominations: Ganon x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Skull Kid

Chance: 10%

Let's be real, we only care about him for his appearance in Majora's Mask, so he's pretty much a one-shot. On that note he's getting the same score as Midna because they're in the same boat; they're probably the two most popular Zelda one-shots, but their games were years ago and their best chances are behind them, and remakes/spinoffs don't necessarily mean much. So like Midna, Skull Kid will most likely remain an assist trophy.

Want: 25%

I personally think the four Zelda assist trophies are in a good spot. However, if I had to promote one, Skull Kid interests me the most.

Doomguy prediction: 16.38%

Nominations: Banjo & Kazooie x5

Jibanyan is on the schedule, time for my next task...

 

[Aetheri]

Skull Kid

Chance: 5%
Same rating I gave Midna, he did have the MM remake from a couple years ago as well as appearing in Hyrule Warriors, but with how split everyone is on which Zelda character gets added he's not as likely...He is one of the more popular villains from the series after Ganon, so he's got that going for him as well...

Want: 85%
Skull Kid's a cool villain...he's probably my third most wanted Zelda character after Midna and Impa...

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Prediction:
Doomguy-9.80%

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Dark Samus x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Skull Kid
Chance: 10%
Want: 25%

Doomguy Prediction: 8.93%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Skull Kid
Chance- 10%
Don't remember what I scored Midna at and am too lazy to look, but they are obviously in similar positions- mostly irrelevant (barring remakes and HW) one-offs with popularity. I guess Skull Kid might have an edge in that at least there have been Skull Kids in other appearances (technically the one in OoT is the same, I think?), though I doubt it will help that much. Majora's Mask (as in the actual mask) has shown up in several places and I guess could reasonably show up again at some point.

Want- 35%
Gets this score just based on the fact that I love his game so much. But other factors, notably his almost one-off status, hold him back.

Doomguy Predictions- 12%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[-crump-]

Skull Kid

Chance: 15%
What else can be said that hasn’t already? He’s a one-off antagonist from an old (but very popular) Zelda game, and only appeared after that in a remake and a spin-off. Really, the only reason he’s got any chance at all is because of popularity. Unfortunately, I don’t think Sakurai will think he stands out of the crowd enough to break out of his Assist Trophy role.

Want: 80%
Not my absolute favorite Zelda character, but he’s definitely up there. I love his design, I love his trickster persona, I love his wicked laugh.. and I would love to play as him in Smash. I don’t see it happening unfortunately, but if by some miracle he made it I would be overjoyed.

Noms:
Henry Fleming x3
Rick/Coo/Kine x2

 

[DaUsername]

Skull Kid
Chance: 15%
Want: N/A

DOOMGuy prediction: 8%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[AvionFinch]

Skull Kid

Chance: 20%

He's well liked, not sure if that's enough to get him out of assist trophy canyon though. Remakes and Spin-Offs are nice and help a bit, but at the end of the day there's a lot of stiff competition when it comes to a Zelda newcomer, and I think he just comes short.

Want: 70%

I loved Majora's Mask, seeing him be playable would make me pretty happy.

Prediction Doomguy: 8% Chance / 11% Want

Nomination: Elma x 5

 

[Troykv]

PK_Wonder thanks .

Here is the schedule for the next week or so. I feel that these structured days will be a good benefit. Cutoff for the next rated schedule will be 4/19.


4/12 Doomguy
4/13 Anna (Fire Emblem)
4/14 Phoenix Wright
4/15 Dr. Eggman
4/16 Jibanyan
4/17 Marx (Kirby)
4/18 Veteran: Lucina
4/19 Concept: No Cuts

So, this is also a reminder to change the nominations for the people that had vote for these character right?

 

[andimidna]

Skull Kid:
I think he’s in a very similar boat as Midna&Wolf Link, with a slightly less recent remake and having not received an amiibo that was compatible with BotW. However, I think his popularity might be a smidge higher than her’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did the best on the ballot of the Zelda characters.
Once again, I don’t believe any of the new BotW characters seems remotely impactful enough in their own right to be their own character. It could happen. They don’t necessarily need all 4, but none of the 4 individually seem to hold much significance or desirability when compared to older fan favorites.
I don’t think the fact that the TP design was a different Skull Kid hurts. It’s a race, so I can see why that seems questionable, but you can also think of it the same way Impa and even the triforce trio to some extent get new designs since they’re different people. I’d totally hope for a TP Skull Kid alt. I love both designs.
I don’t think his moveset is very obvious, or that he could be picked for his moveset, unlike Midna & Wolf Link which has clear conceptual distinctions.
Once again, with Zelda spinoffs getting popular, it might be time to look at the series as a whole. And regardless, we don’t know the ballot results. Anyone ranked high enough could be instantly made relevant enough for reconsideration.
This isn’t necessarily “Smash Bros: Nintendo’s most relevant characters” or “Nintendo’s most recurring characters,” in a fighting game, you should add people that the audience wants to , y’know, play as. I think we get to up in our heads on arbitrary rules and ideas like that.
I still put him low on the basis of competition.
Chance: 12%
Want: 55%
Ok, wow, that’s low after defending him. I want him, but my ideal picks are Midna and Impa. I think he’s totally fitting and warranted, but Midna is my most wanted and I happen to want Impa a little more than Skull Kid.

I don’t know her prediction: 9%

x2 Veronica
x2 Sylux
x1 Azura

I feel like we really should rate Sylux before E3, just based on predictions for the best Metroid game, despite having no attachment to the character

 

[Deleted member]

Skull Kid

Chance: 2%

Probably staying an assist unless he scored considerably high on the ballot, which I doubt.

Want: 80%

Sure.

Prediction: Doom Guy - 14.5%

I expect some inflated scores.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Ura]

Shulk Kid

Chance: 15%

He's a very popular Zelda character but ultimately relevancy is not on his side. Any new Zelda characters would focus on BoTW if any.

Want: 65%

Sure why not? I love me some MM.

Prediction: Doom Guy

Chance: 27%
Want: 35%

Nominations

Mike Jones X 3
Concept: Advance Wars CO X 2

 

[Munomario777]

Skull Kid

Chance: 20%. Not particularly relevant anymore, especially since Breath of the Wild was apparently on their minds at the start of development (given BotW Link in the trailer). Decent following though.

Want: 20%. Meh, no particular want. Could be neat enough though.



Predictions

Doomguy: 10%. Maybe? I dunno. I'm bad at predictions .



Nominations: Blue Bowser x5 (obviously!)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Skull Kid
15% Chance
100% Want

Essentially what I said about Midna, except there is no bad form for skull kid that could lower his Want.


Nominating Spyro x 5


Day over calcs will be posted in the morning

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Skull Kid:
Chance: 5% - His popularity is all he's got.
Want: 0% - Not a big fan of Majora's Mask.

Prediction: Doomguy
Chance: 9.10%
Want: 29.83%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Skull kid
chance: 10%
Just another one off in the pile.
Want: 10%
Don't really care about him compared to other one offs.

Nominations: Ashley (warioware) x5

 

[Fenriraga]

Bone Child

Chance: 10%
He's popular and that's about all he has going for him.

Want: 30%
Majora's Mask is my favorite Zelda game, but I can't exactly say I want him. I absolutely wouldn't be against him at least.

 

[skylanders fan]

Skull Kid
chacne 20%
big zelda character from one of its biggest games

want 75%
looks pretty cool and would have a awesome moveset

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Skull Kid
13.86% Chance
48.87% Want

Similar performance to Midna. Skull Kid appears slightly less likely but slightly more wanted, however. I am interested to see how Ghirahim stacks up.

Today we are rating Doomguy. Please rate Doomguy in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Anna.

PsySmasher was only off by .01, have ten extra noms.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Doom Guy’s inclusion in Smash mainly depends on the company relationship with Bethesda around the time of early 2016. Doom Guy was likely and hardly a top candidate in the Smash Ballot, and was not in heavy consideration by the Smash fanbase not until the Switch reveal trailer came with Skyrim being hinted for the Switch platform. Is there a chance that Sakurai would have looked over third-party support on the Switch to find 3rd party candidates for the Smash Switch roster? I doubt it. I personally think the new third party candidates chosen will be heavily based on ballot results. And because Doom Guy’s potentially low popularity in the ballot, I doubt that he will be in this game, at least for the base roster.

I can see Sakurai looking into Bethesda candidates when Smash DLC comes because of the rising amount of current requests of Doom Guy with the DOOM (2016) port and the immense amount of game history he carries with DOOM (1993) that started the FPS genre boom. The only competition he holds is a Skyrim character, but with Doom Guy’s higher recognizability and iconic nature, I think Doom Guy will be chosen as the Bethesda candidate.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[Aetheri]

Doomguy

Chance: 20%
Probably one of the most iconic FPS characters period. Doom defined the FPS genre and has seen a resurgence thanks to the latest Doom game which has found a spot on the Switch's library...

Both Snake and Bayonetta has shown us that just because you're from an M rated game doesn't necessarily mean anything...Although I do have to say one of Doomguy's most defining traits is violently ripping apart and blasting demons literally back to hell...I still wouldn't hold it against Sakurai still being able to make him work otherwise...

With that said, will Sakurai actually add him? He'd be a left field addition for sure and Bethesda's been very supportive of the Switch so far...While I don't see him being added into the main roster, DLC is a strong possibility for the slayer of demons...

Want: 10%
I'd be interested to see how he'd work but I'm not really pining for him to be added...

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Predictions:
Anna-9.45%

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Dark Samus x5

 

[chemo]

The Doom Slayer (aka Doomguy)

Chance: 20%

He's relevant, has a presence on Nintendo systems that goes back since the 90s, and his series is extremely important to the video game industry, influencing (either directly or indirectly) games including (but not limited to) big Nintendo ones such as Goldeneye and Metroid Prime. However, his series is an M-rated western franchise that isn't very big in Japan, so that lowers his chances by a lot. However, his influence can't be denied, and you'd never know with Sakurai so I wouldn't rule out his inclusion.

Want: 100%

HELL. YES!!! (pun intended)

Not only for the positives mentioned above, but as whole I think he would make a fantastic addition to Smash; his moveset potential, the music, the iconic enemies from his series as trophies. He is by far my most wanted character and while I know that the chances aren't high, I would scream in joy interally for at least a week if he gets added. Bring it on!

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Doom Guy

Chance: abstain
Want: 0%

I don’t really like shooter games so I don’t want him but I’m not opposed to this character. I think I’d rather abstain in his chances since idk much about the character.

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[chemo]

Also my nomination and predictions since I can't re-adjust the position of the gif in my post

Predictions:

Anna
Chance: 12%
Want: 35%

Nomination:

Banjo & Kazooie x5

 

[Spatman]

Doom Guy
Chance: 0%
Want: err, idk... I loved DOOM on ps4 so much I'm willing to rebuy it for Switch when it won't cost as a kidney anymore. The character is quite anonymous but still very cool. I'd like him for him sake, but at the same time I would dislike having him playable because, idk, I don't think he fits in, and I'd prefer at least 25-30 characters over him

 

[Deleted member]

Doomguy (yeah, lacking of an idea of title for this one)

Chance: 15%
Yes, he's the main figure of one of the most influential series in gaming, and yes, this same series also appeared several times on Nintendo consoles, notably with the port of the 2016 game on Switch.
However, he faces the same kind of problem as characters like the ones from Mortal Kombat, as to know being a realistic-looking character coming from a franchise which is also known for its very graphical violence and who also uses several realistic and deadly weapons, and for a game like Smash which tries to appeal to the widest audience as possible, this may cause too many issues for his inclusion.

Want: abstain
I have 0 experience with this series, and I don't want to judge a character basing only on a very few footage I saw from it.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Anna prediction: 29.13%