Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Louie G.]

SOL BADGUY

Chance: 25%
I think Sol is... possible. Like, the way I see it, if ArcSys gets a character it's pretty likely to be him with Kunio out of the picture. Double Dragon could get a character but idk, Sol is probably a bit more exciting and, with a new Guilty Gear on the horizon, more marketable. That being said, I think that people are sort of jumping blindly onto the ArcSys rep train. If it does happen I think it's perfectly justified, but I'm not convinced it will go anywhere beyond the Kunio spirit. To me the current hype seems to be a bit of a kneejerk reaction to that, and will probably fade out once we get the first couple characters of the next pass. So yeah I'm not counting him out or anything, I think it's worth keeping in mind but maybe not super likely.

Want: 80%
Sol would be sick. Great design, potentially very fun moveset and mechanics, loads of personality and style. Don't have anything bad to say about the guy, although Guilty Gear wouldn't be my first choice if I needed to add another fighting game character.

COLDSTEEL TH- RAGNA THE BLOODEDGE

Chance: 12%
Just like Sol, Ragna's possible. I think he may have a bit more going for him than people are currently giving him credit for, at least enough to almost stack up with Sol, but not quite enough to feel like a prime contender. Guilty Gear seems to be ArcSys's dominant focus right now, so I believe that Sol may have the leg up on Ragna if it came down to these two. For what it's worth though, unless I'm remembering incorrectly Blazblue and Nintendo have a slightly tighter history than Guilty Gear does. I just remember it being on 3DS, I never really played the games. In any case I think he's the backup plan if anything.

Want: 30%
Ragna is definitely not my preference. I'm not a huge fan of his sort of character design or Blazblue especially relative to Sol and Guilty Gear, although I will say he'd probably end up a pretty fun character. At the very least, he'd feel distinct from the other two fighting game characters we've got.

Predictions
Crash - 47.75%
Spyro - 5.15%

Nomination: Travis Touchdown revote x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain again

Prediction
Crash 55%
Spyro 12%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

As promised, you get my Sol rating quoted from past me. Hi past me! Enjoy 2019 'cause 2020 has been a doozy so far.

Top ten worst videogame character names

Chance: 20%
I could see it happening? ArcSys has definitely been a success story and a critical darling in the fighting game genre (kinda like a less mainstream Platinum), and I guess their style of beautiful, 2D animated fighters has been pretty influential (even if they themselves have made half of the big games that take after Guilty Gear and BlazBlue). After SNK I could see ArcSys also getting the call.

Although, if they were to go for ArcSys, would they do BlazBlue or Guilty Gear? GG was their first, though from what I could find BlazBlue is the most successful, and both are ongoing. My knowledge is limited, so I'd appreciate if someone could give me a definitive answer on this.

Want: 65%
Yeah, I'd be fine with it. The obvious rep for Guilty Gear is Sol. I'll be honest though, I find Sol to be kind of a boring character, and I'm more of a BlazBlue guy myself.

Though to be fair, Ragna is even boringer than Sol and he's the main guy in BB, so whatevs.

Edit: oh yeah we're also rating Francis York for some reason

Chance: 0%
Uhh... What? Seriously, why is this in contention? Like, Deadly Premonition is this super polarizing cult game, like if Shenmue hadn't been a big deal or super technologically advanced. A weird Japanese detective game inspired by Twin Peaks dropped in the beginning of this wonderful decade, it would probably have been forgotten if it weren't so special. But Smash? I can't fathom a moveset for York, honestly. And, like, isn't the IP owned by Marvelous now? Story of Seasons and No More Heroes Marvelous? I could even see Little King's Story and Daemon X Machina have a better shot due to stronger Nintendo connection (y'all won't remember but LKS is a Wii classic). I... Am at a loss for words.

Want: 5%
Maybe a little just for the laughs? But York is the opposite of a third party Smash character. He's not iconic, he's not influential, he's not a mascot, he's not even particularly compelling as a fighter. I... Can't say I get why he'd be included.

Noms: Atari rep x5
Prediction: 12.7%

You get a Francis York Morgan rating for free with your Sol.

Now for the other one

Thor: Ragna Rok

Chance: 20%
I honestly think they're equal in chances. People have said that Sol has the upper hand because of legacy but I don't think that's really that much helpful. Others have said that Guilty Gear is more popular than BlazBlue, I dunno where that comes from, but if I could get an explanation/sources that'd be cool. Honestly, it's either-or, and I feel like both would do an adequate job at representing ArcSys' oeuvre. But right now I'm feeling that Double Dragon might actually be the likeliest series for some reason.

Hey, while we're at it. Has a character from either BlazBlue or Guilty Gear ever been depicted in 3D?

Want: 65%
Ragna himself is much more boring than Sol. But I like BlazBlue better so it balances out. And I think BlazBlue would also be a more interesting setting for, like, a stage and stuff.

Noms: Kiryu
Crash prediction: 69%
Spyro prediction: 6.4%

 

[chocolatejr9]

As promised, you get my Sol rating quoted from past me. Hi past me! Enjoy 2019 'cause 2020 has been a doozy so far.



You get a Francis York Morgan rating for free with your Sol.

Now for the other one

Thor: Ragna Rok

Chance: 20%
I honestly think they're equal in chances. People have said that Sol has the upper hand because of legacy but I don't think that's really that much helpful. Others have said that Guilty Gear is more popular than BlazBlue, I dunno where that comes from, but if I could get an explanation/sources that'd be cool. Honestly, it's either-or, and I feel like both would do an adequate job at representing ArcSys' oeuvre. But right now I'm feeling that Double Dragon might actually be the likeliest series for some reason.

Hey, while we're at it. Has a character from either BlazBlue or Guilty Gear ever been depicted in 3D?

Want: 65%
Ragna himself is much more boring than Sol. But I like BlazBlue better so it balances out. And I think BlazBlue would also be a more interesting setting for, like, a stage and stuff.

Noms: Kiryu
Crash prediction: 69%
Spyro prediction: 6.4%

Actually, I think the newer Guilty Gear games are in 3D.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Heihachi/Nightmare pre-Sol Badguy/Ragna the Bloodedge

Freddy Fazbear x170
Kazuma Kiryu x160
The Blob (De Blob) x150
Crypto x135
Carmen Sandiego x135
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x100
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x100

100 - 51

[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x90
Ryo Hazuki x80
Reporter & Wrestler x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Chun-Li x65
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x65
Decidueye x62
Meowth x61
Big Daddy (BioShock) x60
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x57

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Paper Mario x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Mii Costume: Quote x30
Segata Sanshiro x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Bubsy x25

Under 25

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x16
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Concept: DLC music packs x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Kratos x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Black Shadow x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Guardian (Destiny) x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x2
Taranza x1

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep ties with Gex for seventh place. This is the first change in the top seven since a while back, but if Travis Touchdown keeps getting noms at the current rate it won't be the last...

Bubsy glides to 25 noms.

Today's new concept is Second F-Zero rep, with 2 noms.

axel_ I'm going to need you to pick how many noms you're giving to Quote and how many to Monokuma. Otherwise I can't count them.

Actually, I think the newer Guilty Gear games are in 3D.

Yeah, just checked and Strive's making the leap to 3D. Looks really good too.

Should probably pay more attention to ArcSys' output.

I should also probably had waited to respond until I had the noms list ready. Oh well, check this post out in a bit.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on both since I have very little familiarity with their games beyond knowing the name and art style for several years. However, they do have a pretty good amount of things working in their favor. They've both got plenty of representation on Nintendo systems and have plenty of recency. The real question is which of the two will be chosen. It seems like a Classic with legacy in Sol vs. someone a little newer with popularity with Ragna (from what I'm aware BlazBlue is doing better than Guilty Gear, though feel free to correct me). One thing hurting Ragna is Sakurai's recent statement that he's growing tired of sword characters and wants to mix things up, so Sol gains an edge there. With Nintendo is choosing most of the DLC, it feels that Ragna would be more of a Nintendo pick while Sol would be more of a Sakurai pick. But it really could go either way. The Kunio-kun/River City spirit event is evidence that Nintendo has done some kind of negotiations with ArcSys, and that could lead to a character in the near future, though we can only wait and see.

Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
Crash - 44.21%
Spyro - 10.68%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Sol Badguy and Ragna the Bloodedge

(Apologies in advance, this rating might get a bit complicated)

Chance for both: 20%
I will admit, I could see Arc System getting a rep. The problem is that it seems to be a coin flip between these two. Sol has legacy, but Ragna seems to have more popularity (though don't quote me on that). Plus, that River City Spirit Event proves that ArcSys is willing to cooperate in Smash. It's honestly hard to say who's more likely.

Abstain on Sol want. I've never played Guilty Gear.

Ragna Want: 95%
Ragna's pretty alright, if you ask me. Granted, there was that bit in Sakurai's interview about "too many swordfighters", but I think Ragna would be more unique than the rest. Plus, Blazblue's soundtrack in Smash would be quite the treat.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Just gonna leave my rating from december since nothing regarding him has changed much for him, tho I guess I'll bump his chance score by 5% since Arc is officially acquainted with Ultimate now through last Spirit event.

Sol Beltguy
Chance: 35%
Guilty Gear does seem to be Arc's flagship series and is pretty acclaimed at that. It may not carry the same legacy as Street Fighter and SnK nor do I know if Sakurai is as passionate about the series as those two but if Arc System were to get a rep I can definitely see it being Sol. Sure, there's Blazblue as well but we Terry instead of Kyo so I also see Sol making it in over Ragna

Want: Abstaining, I actually know very little about him or his series beyond what that DB episode informed me about.

"My character's name is Ragna the Bloodedge! He's got twelve swords of the demons eye, can teleport and shoot blood out of his testi-"
Chance: 2%
This is one case where I don't see him happening because another character likely taking priority. Guilty Gear just has seniority on it's side and has a game or two in development. The whole Blazblu series has also only sold about 1.7 million units despite having quite a few releases and spinoffs. Not sure how that stacks up to GG but it doesn't sound that profitable to me and I don't think Ragna has the legacy, fan demand or developer bias to make up for that.

Want: Abstaining

Crash: 43.22%
Spyro: 3.64%
Reporter and wrestler x5

 

[Erureido]

Been a long time since I last posted here (mainly because I lost interest), but I just learned that Ragna was being rated today, so I definitely want to participate for that. Might as well as rate Sol as well since it seems like today is about rating the top candidates for an ArcSys rep.

Chance for both Ragna and Sol: 30%

I don't think the chances for an ArcSys rep are that high, but with those few ArcSys characters recently included as spirits and how Smash branched out to other third parties in the first fighter pass, I can see an ArcSys rep having somewhat of a chance to be included. If we are getting an ArcSys rep, it's coming down to either Sol or Ragna since they are the two biggest icons of ArcSys that come to mind.

Sol's main advantage is that he has the seniority and legacy with how long Guilty Gear has existed, while Ragna's main advantage is that BlazBlue seems to have a far bigger presence on Nintendo consoles (Continuum Shift II got a port for the 3DS, two BlazBlue spinoffs were released on the DSi and 3DS eshops, Central Fiction got a port for the Switch, and BlazBlue is one of the main titles represented in BB CrossTag). Both are also quite popular characters as well.

Sakurai's recent comment about sword fighters does hurt both of their chances though, but he did follow up with the amount of sword fighters is why he "brings tactics exclusive to each fighter," and considering that both Sol and Ragna have ways of fighting that aren't just limited to their swords, I feel like they have ways of standing out.

(Sidenote: I saw comments about how Sol is more likely than Ragna just because Ragna fights with a sword a lot, but last time I checked, Sol's main weapon is also a sword, so I don't see their fighting styles making one more likely than the other; both even have ways of fighting beyond the sword, with Ragna's I will go into detail for my want rating).

Want for Sol: 0%

Sol definitely has some neat moveset potential. is a fun character himself, and has good reasons for getting it, but simply put, I have no interest in him as a Smash rep. I much prefer BlazBlue over Guilty Gear myself, mainly because I prefer BlazBlue's aesthetic and music, as well as the fact BlazBlue makes me more nostalgic (it was the first ArcSys game I ever came across). Thus, I'd much rather have a BlazBlue rep in Smash just because it's where my preference lies.

Want for Ragna: 100%

Ragna has become one of my most wanted characters in Smash. He's one of my all-time favorite fictional protagonists: really captivating character with a great arc throughout his series. I'm also quite fond of his personality. He's brash and snarky, but deep down, he's got a heart of gold and willing to help others when the situation calls for it.

Ragna may fight with the sword, but another prominent aspect to his fighting style is his Azure Grimoire powers. The Azure Grimoire allows his arm to turn into giant claws, monster-like jaws, and can even summon monsters briefly for various attacks. I feel like Ragna's Azure Grimoire powers would help stand out from the roster so that he wouldn't be seen as just "another plain sword fighter."

Another great benefit of having Ragna in Smash means that we could finally have BlazBlue music. We have some songs like that one Final Destination remix from Smash 4 that sound like they came from BlazBlue, imagine if we had more songs like that but with BlazBlue music being included with Ragna's inclusion. That would be great!

Truth be told, Ragna is not the only BlazBlue character I want in Smash: the other is Noel Vermillion. She's my favorite girl from BlazBlue who is also one of my favorite fictional characters, and I think she can stand out from the roster with her dual-gun-wielding abilities (she'd also pave the way for bringing a BlazBlue stage and songs from the series into Smash as well). Sadly, her chances of being included in Smash aren't as high as Ragna's because Ragna has the main protagonist role on his side (Noel's only advantages are her moveset potential and her being the main heroine of BlazBlue, but Ragna's role in the series still trumps both), but if she does get into Smash, I would be as hyped as I would seeing Ragna in Smash. Both Ragna and Noel are among my most wanted!

------

Not going to do predictions and nominations since I only post here if a character being rated interests me.

 

[BowserKing]

Sol Badguy

Chance: 10%. The main issue is the competition, which could potentially defeat him. However he is more likely to appear in the game then some characters, to that is a start.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as. The music would be fun to listen too as well. But I don't know too much about that character or this franchise, so now for the next character.

Ragna

Chance: 10%. He may have a chance, but competition is a big concern. He is more likely to appear then some, he is competing with Sol Badguy and many other characters, so who knows what will happen to them.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as, and of course more music to listen too. With multiple deadly weapons. he would be a challenge to fight. But since I don't know too much about the franchise, I'm putting both Sol Badguy and Ragna at the 50/50 slot.

Predictions: Crash (20%) and Spyro (15%)

Noms: 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 3 for Meowth

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sol Badguy

Chance: 10%. The main issue is the competition, and not just from other villains, but heroic and neutral characters as well. However he is more likely to appear in the game then some characters, to that is a start. Him being a villain gives him a bit of an advantage.

Want: 50%. Another playable villain would be fun, and he would be fun to play as. The music would be fun to listen too as well. But I don't know too much about that character or this franchise, so now for the next character.

Sol Badguy a villain? You better start doing some research about the characters you're rating aside from reading their name. As it stands this whole post is worthless.

 

[amageish]

Sol and Ragna, eh?

Chance: 25%

I'm giving both the same rating as I'm honestly not sure who would take precedent. They're both major faces in the anime fighter genre, but they counter-balance each other a lot. Sol has more legacy from a pure gaming perspective, but Ragna is from the franchise that has been more consistently active over time (including more Nintendo appearances). Both are the definition of "anime swordsman" in a vague sense, but also neither have strictly-normal swords. Sol's sword is magic and can be used to fire projectiles; Ragna's sword is magic and turns into a scythe for several moves. Both would be targeting roughly the same FGC audience and, in general, I feel like both would do a good job at it. It would also be kind of funny as both were just in Code-Shifter, a ArcSys-made retro-style crossover platform fighter.

Want: 70%

I would like both of them a lot. I enjoy both series and while I haven’t played much of either character in their own games, I would really love GG or BB music to be in Smash. The OST is just fantastic.

Truth be told, Ragna is not the only BlazBlue character I want in Smash: the other is Noel Vermillion. She's my favorite girl from BlazBlue who is also one of my favorite fictional characters, and I think she can stand out from the roster with her dual-gun-wielding abilities (she'd also pave the way for bringing a BlazBlue stage and songs from the series into Smash as well). Sadly, her chances of being included in Smash aren't as high as Ragna's because Ragna has the main protagonist role on his side (Noel's only advantages are her moveset potential and her being the main heroine of BlazBlue, but Ragna's role in the series still trumps both), but if she does get into Smash, I would be as hyped as I would seeing Ragna in Smash. Both Ragna and Noel are among my most wanted!

That said, this is a hope I 100% agree on. I doubt we’d get the heroine of a franchise before the main protagonist, but I’d be super hyped if we did. I think we’d have to be careful balancing Noel’s guns more then we would Ragna’s sword, but still. I’d be very down.

 

[Sari]

Before I do my ratings I'm gonna comment on the Kunio spirits being added to Ultimate. The Kunio series is owned by ArcSys, so on one hand it shows that we could get a character from them while on the other it could just mean something like a mii costume like with what happened with Ubisoft. I'm not sure how the Kunio spirits affect the chances of an ArcSys rep so I won't factor it into my chance scores.

-----

Sol Badguy

Gonna quote my rating of him from December since not much has changed since then.

The soul of a bad guy

Chance: 15%
ArcSys is one of the notable Japanese companies remaining that is not represented in Smash at the moment. With the success of Dragon Ball FighterZ and other titles, ArcSys is probably more relevant than ever. A rep from them would not be too surprising and the only internal competition Sol would have would be with Ragna from BlazBlue. Sol would probably have the upperhand considering how longer lasting GG is when compared to BlazBlue. If fighting game reps are an issue then the only other fighter series that Sol would have to compete with would be Tekken since we already have Capcom and SNK (and another SNK rep is extremely unlikely with the content Terry brought with him). Overall, not too much going for or against him.

Want: 65%
I used Sol a lot in one of the older GG titles so I'd be alright with him getting in. I will admit that when it comes to other fighting game characters, there are still a bunch more from both Capcom and SNK that I'd want to see first (specifically Chun-li, Iori, and of course Kyo who is my all-time most wanted character).

-----

Ragna

Chance: 10%
Basically everything I said about Sol can be applied to Ragna. Between the two, I feel like Sol would be chosen first since he's been around for much longer.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played much of BlazBlue so I won't comment. I'd probably prefer Sol though.

-----

Crash chance prediction: 53.65%
Spyro chance prediction: 8,31%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Sol Badguy
Chance: 15%
He has some things going for him. Arc Systems getting some spirits is interesting, but I don't think it means much. It is a good sign that it wasn't a Guilty Gear spirit event. The fact that he's from a fighting game is a good sign for him.

Want: 10%
There are a lot of characters I would rather have over him. He's kinda cool though, not the end of the world if he gets in.

Ragna
Chance: 5%
If Arc gets a character, it's probably Sol Badguy. If I googled right, Sol is more known than Ragna. If they want to go with the newer series, then maybe he can get in but I doubt it.

Want: 0%
As much as I hate the "Generic Anime Swordsman" thing... yeah. I really don't know how else to describe him.


Noms: Octopath rep x5

 

[BowserKing]

Sol Badguy a villain? You better start doing some research about the characters you're rating aside from reading their name. As it stands this whole post is worthless.

Too be fair, Badguy is in his name. Also I did say that I don't know too much about that character or franchise, as I'm not familiar with it.

Sorry for the confusion. I changed it for you.

 

[Sari]

Too be fair, Badguy is in his name. Also I did say that I don't know too much about that character or franchise, as I'm not familiar with it.

I mean the first paragraph of his Wikipedia page literally says that he's the main character of the series who tries to destroy the Gears that once doomed humanity. This thread isn't asking for everyone to know every single thing about the character(s) of the day; just some general knowledge about them that you can find through like 10 seconds of googling. If you aren't comfortable in your knowledge of the character or don't feel like learning about them, you're probably just better off abstaining for the day.

 

[axel_]

SOL BADGUY

Chance: 85%

To me Sol Badguy checks off all the marks for a great pick for Smash.
As far as legacy goes, Arc System Works has been an industry veteran for a long time, being in business almost as long as Capcom. Guilty Gear itself has basically cemented the groundworks for all anime fighters that would come afterwards.
For relevancy, I would say in most conditions that this would be a hit against Sol, as GG was usually pretty small, but then Dragon Ball FighterZ happened. That game changed everything for Arc System Works, thrusting them and Guilty Gear into the spotlight as a fighting game developer with a unique style. Another major push for the potential inclusion of Sol was Terry making it to Smash, showing that being well-known by the general public was no longer a factor.
The biggest thing that really makes me consider Sol as a serious contender is the Kunio-kun spirit event, which means that Arc System Works did talk to Nintendo for negotiating Smash, and it's possible that Sol as a Fighter was brought up.
So with this series of events I really think Sol has a great shot for this Fighters Pass.

Want: 100%

Guilty Gear is nothing short of incredible, from its game mechanics, presentation, music, characters, and everything else it has to offer. It is a remarkable series given soul by the passion an absolute legend (Daisuke Ishiwatari) and I want to see the efforts of him and all of Arc System Works be immortalized in the greatest gaming crossover of all time.
Sol himself is a great character with a lot of personality, which would also be incredibly unique for how he could translate Guilty Gear's mechanics into Smash.


RAGNA THE BLOODEDGE

Chance: 10%

Everything I can say for a character under Arc System Works is only for Sol. BlazBlue has significantly less impact on not just anime fighters and Arc System Works, but fighting games as a whole, so I really can't see Nintendo going for a series with such little significance.

Want: 0%

I really don't have any attachment to BlazBlue and Ragna is a painfully ridiculous cliche with zero self-awareness. While I usually don't have a problem with swordsmen with an anime style, Ragna would feel like a backstab not just to Smash fans, but fighting game fans anticipating Sol as well as other fighting game reps.



Crash prediction: ~65%
Spyro prediction: ~5%

Nominations: Monokuma x5

 

[Calamitas]

Gonna double abstain again. I don't know enough about either character.

Predictions:
Crash - 49.01%
Spyro - 8.73%

Nominating any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

 

[Erureido]

Been a long time since I last posted here (mainly because I lost interest), but I just learned that Ragna was being rated today, so I definitely want to participate for that. Might as well as rate Sol as well since it seems like today is about rating the top candidates for an ArcSys rep.

Chance for both Ragna and Sol: 30%

I don't think the chances for an ArcSys rep are that high, but with those few ArcSys characters recently included as spirits and how Smash branched out to other third parties in the first fighter pass, I can see an ArcSys rep having somewhat of a chance to be included. If we are getting an ArcSys rep, it's coming down to either Sol or Ragna since they are the two biggest icons of ArcSys that come to mind.

Sol's main advantage is that he has the seniority and legacy with how long Guilty Gear has existed, while Ragna's main advantage is that BlazBlue seems to have a far bigger presence on Nintendo consoles (Continuum Shift II got a port for the 3DS, two BlazBlue spinoffs were released on the DSi and 3DS eshops, Central Fiction got a port for the Switch, and BlazBlue is one of the main titles represented in BB CrossTag). Both are also quite popular characters as well.

Sakurai's recent comment about sword fighters does hurt both of their chances though, but he did follow up with the amount of sword fighters is why he "brings tactics exclusive to each fighter," and considering that both Sol and Ragna have ways of fighting that aren't just limited to their swords, I feel like they have ways of standing out.

(Sidenote: I saw comments about how Sol is more likely than Ragna just because Ragna fights with a sword a lot, but last time I checked, Sol's main weapon is also a sword, so I don't see their fighting styles making one more likely than the other; both even have ways of fighting beyond the sword, with Ragna's I will go into detail for my want rating).

Want for Sol: 0%

Sol definitely has some neat moveset potential. is a fun character himself, and has good reasons for getting it, but simply put, I have no interest in him as a Smash rep. I much prefer BlazBlue over Guilty Gear myself, mainly because I prefer BlazBlue's aesthetic and music, as well as the fact BlazBlue makes me more nostalgic (it was the first ArcSys game I ever came across). Thus, I'd much rather have a BlazBlue rep in Smash just because it's where my preference lies.

Want for Ragna: 100%

Ragna has become one of my most wanted characters in Smash. He's one of my all-time favorite fictional protagonists: really captivating character with a great arc throughout his series. I'm also quite fond of his personality. He's brash and snarky, but deep down, he's got a heart of gold and willing to help others when the situation calls for it.

Ragna may fight with the sword, but another prominent aspect to his fighting style is his Azure Grimoire powers. The Azure Grimoire allows his arm to turn into giant claws, monster-like jaws, and can even summon monsters briefly for various attacks. I feel like Ragna's Azure Grimoire powers would help stand out from the roster so that he wouldn't be seen as just "another plain sword fighter."

Another great benefit of having Ragna in Smash means that we could finally have BlazBlue music. We have some songs like that one Final Destination remix from Smash 4 that sound like they came from BlazBlue, imagine if we had more songs like that but with BlazBlue music being included with Ragna's inclusion. That would be great!

Truth be told, Ragna is not the only BlazBlue character I want in Smash: the other is Noel Vermillion. She's my favorite girl from BlazBlue who is also one of my favorite fictional characters, and I think she can stand out from the roster with her dual-gun-wielding abilities (she'd also pave the way for bringing a BlazBlue stage and songs from the series into Smash as well). Sadly, her chances of being included in Smash aren't as high as Ragna's because Ragna has the main protagonist role on his side (Noel's only advantages are her moveset potential and her being the main heroine of BlazBlue, but Ragna's role in the series still trumps both), but if she does get into Smash, I would be as hyped as I would seeing Ragna in Smash. Both Ragna and Noel are among my most wanted!

------

Not going to do predictions and nominations since I only post here if a character being rated interests me.

Actually, I'm going to add some nominations to this post if it's possible:

Level 5 rep: x5

I honestly never expected to see both Sol AND Ragna being rated on the same day, and with all this discussion about one being more likely than the other for reasons like legacy and ties with Nintendo, it inspired me to come up with this nomination.

I think it'd be just as interesting to see the Level 5 rep concept rated because it's also a more prominent third party company as of late, and I can imagine similar points being raised today to two very prominent Level 5 characters (Professor Layton and Jibanyan). Might be an interesting day.

Of course, with how I don't post on this thread as frequently as I used to, I'm not sure it I'll be able to pitch in everyday just to get the concept rated, so hey, this is probably more of an idea I'm throwing out. If anyone wants to nominate this concept and it eventually gets its day, fill free to tag me!

 

[Sid-cada]

Sol Badguy

Chance - 15% - Since we rated him last time, his company lent us some spirits from another game. This might be a hint that his company is getting something, but what I'm not certain. For all we know, it could just be a one-off, or even a Mii costume. Still, it's enough to boost his chances slightly for me. While I have no idea if they were to go after another fighting game character, given the new pass, I still think he might try to go for as wide a reach as possible. Still, if there was an ArcSys representative, he's the one.

Want - 20% - Not interested in more fighting game characters. I struggle to input even a QCF, so I'd rather not have another character with complex inputs in the game. I'd rather have a mix of interesting moves without overly complicating the control scheme.

Ragna

Chance - 1% - Largely the same as the choice above, with less fame and age. As such, the choice between the two should be fairly obvious. I don't see him getting in unless something unexpected happened.

Want - 20% - Largely the same as the above. If either of them were to appear, I probably would not buy them.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[KillerCage]

You people do realize that Ragna's "sword" is actually a folded-up scythe.

I would give both Ragna and Sol a 30% chance.
Sol gets a 50% want while Ragna gets a 60% want.

 

[axel_]

This thread's general opinion on Sol made me remember how ignorant Smash fans are.

 

[KillerCage]

This thread's general opinion on Sol made me remember how ignorant Smash fans are.

Ditto that for Ragna.

 

[Flyboy]

Sol Badguy
Chance: 15%
ArcSys is in such a weird position right now. They never were particularly likely, and then the Kunio spirits got added which...I can't even figure out how this affects their chances, to be honest.

Anyway...I'd give both Ragna and Sol equal chances because to me all native ArcSys franchises are on the same level. Sol and Ragna are in an interesting position as Sol is more the classic ArcSys face while Ragna is the newer one. They'd both bring interesting anime-style fighting mechanics and aesthetics to Smash, standing apart from...well, really the entire roster by being totally crazy and flashy with some seriously wild new tech. But at the same time, I wasn't expecting any ArcSys until the Kunio event blindsided everyone, and previously all new companies added to Smash had zero representation at all. I guess I just don't see it. That said, they're about equal in terms of games on Nintendo, and Guilty Gear even had a DS exclusive platform fighter, so maybe that helps.

Want: 90%
Guilty Gear XX Accent Core R is my favorite fighting game ever created. I've been obsessed with the Guilty Gear franchise ever since I read about Guilty Gear X in a copy of Expert Gamer as a kid and was blown away with how fast, crazy, and stylish it looked in the screenshots and review. Eventually, I picked up the DS game Guilty Gear Dust Strikers and completely fell in love with the world, characters, aesthetic, and mechanics of Guilty Gear. It was unlike anything I had ever seen before! And from there my hunger for all things Guilty Gear only grew.

Sol isn't my main - that would be Slayer with Faust as a secondary - but he IS one of the absolute coolest characters in fighting with his crazy powers, his Dragon Install transformations, his Captain Falcon-esque punches, and his hard, heavy metal vibe. The world of Guilty Gear is just impossibly cool, with thrashing guitars and heavy 90s anime influences, and the new games are just simply stunning and gorgeous works of art. The lore is insane. Sol himself is an awesome character with his long-running backstory and ties to the overarching story of the world. He's a character I never knew I wanted until he was brought up in a fake leak because I never even considered him anywhere close to possible. He still isn't, and it'd be the most surreal thing in the world to see him in a Smash trailer. That said, he'd be incredible. Beyond incredible! Go Sol!

Anyway if you have a few dollars, go pick up Guilty Gear XX Accent Core R on the Switch eShop. It's the best.

Ragna the Bloodedge
Chance: 15%
Please reread what I said about Sol. I see them on equal footing, but neither are likely.

Want: 30%
I'm going to be real, for the longest time I had a massive grudge against BlazBlue. Back during the time of the first game's release, all we knew about Guilty Gear was that its rights were in flux and it legitimately felt like we'd never get another game in the series. I remember playing the original BlazBlue and no matter how hard I tried I couldn't connect with any of the characters or playstyles. The closest I had were Noel Vermillion and Arakune, but other than that all it did was make me miss Guilty Gear more and never managed to scratch the itch. I traded in the game and outside of playing it at a friend's house I never really got into it...

HOWEVER

I have recently picked up newer Blazblue games because I really do want to give it another shot. I don't judge Guilty Gear based on the original or even X, so why should I judge BlazBlue on the same era for it? I've come to really appreciate the music and the absolutely beautiful stages and the really cool story mode mechanics, and learning about some other new characters have intrigued me. I understand Ragna and BlazBlue's modern importance in the fighting game scene. I just don't have that personal connection yet. But I plan to change that. Until that happens, though, I have to admit that I simply do not Vibe with Ragna at this time. But BlazBlue in Smash in general is a good idea in my eyes.

Nominations: Kazuma Kiryu x5

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from both characters because I don't really care.
Crash prediction: 65%
Spyro prediction: 10%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Heart and Sol

80% Chance

Yep.

Let me be 100% honest with ya, I would not have put Sol this high if the Kunio spirits did not exist. The fact Arc Sys is on board makes me see a Arc Sys character as likely. In terms of Ubisoft in comparison, River City being in as spirits just seems like a better sign than Rayman getting spirited and Altair and the Rabbids getting mii costumed. River City just aint as big in Arc Sys's general library as Rayman, Rabbids, or AC.

So yeah, I think an Arc Sys character is likely. Sol seems like the top dog. Guilty Gear is the source of Arc Sys' formula and the Anime fighter style. I can see that this is what is gonna get the nod at least.

Overall, a company that previously was not involved in the base game has spirits in it had a spirit event. That seems like a strong sign for Sol

Abstain Want


Ow the (Blood)Edge
20% Chance

Basically like Sol, but newer. But Arc Sys' baby is Guilty Gear. I expect a sitch sorta like w Terry. The big source of it all will get the nod.

Abstain Want

Travis x 5

 

[NessAtc.]

Ragna=The=Bloodedge

Chances: 5%
Want: 30%

Sol Badguy

Chances: 5%
Want: 20%

As a staunch player of Arc System Works games, I highly doubt the Kunio spirits will end up meaning anything in the long run. Regardless, if I had to pick a character to represent Arc Sys, it'd probably end up being Ragna. BB existed in the first place because Arc Sys couldn't make Guilty Gear for a time, and ended up becoming a greater beast in respects than GG. It's unironically amassed a huge following in Japan, where while GG2 cabinets in 2007 didn't last for the year in certain establishments, Chronophantasma cabinets lasted almost until Central Fiction's announcement. Mind, this is also while Persona 4 Arena was being supported.

GG and BB are of about equal importance to Arc Sys, and at the end of the day, Sakurai's picking the character, not Arc Sys. Since Sol and Ragna share a couple specials, it's more or less about what best appeals to Sakurai. And I honestly think that Ragna's Drive, Soul Eater, is more interesting than Sol's Dragon Install. Dragon Install increases the damage of most of his moves, but Soul Eater allows Ragna to sap away enemy health with hits from certain moves. In BB, this is designed to offset the ridiculously low base health Ragna has, which would translate to Smash as him being a very light character that can die quite early.

I doubt either one gets in, but if I had to pick one, it'd be Ragna due to the mechanics of his Drive.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Sol not-so-Badguy
Chance: 25%
I'll repost something I said a week or two ago, for reference:

I still think the Kunio Spirits point to an Arcsys rep. It's just a really odd choice compared to the other third party Spirits:

- Tecmo has Fatal Frame, but if I'm not mistaken, the Spirits are from two games that were co-developed with Nintendo.
- Marvelous is in a similar situation with Daemon X Machina.
- The Tetris Company doesn't have anything besides... well, Tetris. So it's not like they could get anything else in Ultimate besides that.
- Capcom got RE, but they already had two series with playable characters before.

Meanwhile, all Arcsys gets is a bunch of Kunio Spirits? I get it: River City is influential in Beat-'em-ups, which later inspired the fighting game genre itself, and it had a lot of its history in Nintendo consoles. But it didn't even belong to Arcsys originally. It's like if Sega's only content in Smash was some Puyo Puyo or Persona Spirits or Bethesda only had some Doom Spirits.

"But then why wouldn't Kunio content come with the Arcsys rep?" Well, because it's an aquired property. We didn't get Persona content with Sonic back in Brawl. Terry got Spirits from other series, but they all belonged to SNK.

There's also Ubisoft, with their three main contenders basically killed.

In terms of company history, when you think of other fighting games that would be a "priority" for Smash besides Tekken (or MK, due to the Japan thing), GG is absolutely a frontrunner. Sol has been around longer, while Ragna has more connections with Nintendo. However, considering Sol is closer to being Arcsys' poster boy and that GG will get a new release this year, he might have an edge over the Bloodedge (hahaHAHAHAH-).

Want: 70%
I love GG since my college days and I think Sol has at the very least 4 or so mechanics that would be great in Smash, between a Tension Gauge, Roman Cancels, Dragon Install and Bursts. And with GG being a very fast-paced game, he'd transition really nicely. Count me in. I'll talk more about why I'm more partial to Sol as an Arcsys rep below...

Ragna the (Blood)Edgy
Chance: 15%
Like I said, he has the advantage of a bigger Nintendo connection over Sol, but that's about it. Ragna has his fair share of promo material, meaning he might as well be used as a mascot of Arcsys despite Sol being around longer than him. I wouldn't call him a frontrunner, but he does have a better chance than a lot of people give him credit for. However, the Blazblue series (to avoid spoilers) might not get a new mainline entry in the foreseeable future, so there's that to consider.

Want: 30%
Okay. Remember when I said I'm more partial to Sol? Here's why: Sol is a badass former scientist who (to not get spoilery, again) got powers that make him so strong, he basically needs to limit them. He shoots fire from his sword and despite being a badass, also has an interesting personality underneath - which we get to see mainly through his interactions with Ky and Sin. Meanwhile, Ragna... he's okay and has his moments, but never strays too far from your regular anime tropes, I guess. He didn't stand out to me as a protagonist the same way Sol does.

Moveset-wise, both Sol and Ragna combine swordplay with hand-to-hand combat, but Sol still comes out superior to me in terms of variety. Sol is basic for GG standards, sure, but he's still fun and his moves are iconic for GG in a similar way (albeit not to the same level, of course) that one would consider Ryu and Ken's shoto moveset to be iconic for SF. For Ragna... all that stuck to me was that his sword unfolds into a scythe. I can give the names of quite a few Blazblue characters with more interesting playstyles than him.

Bottom line is - Sol stands out for GG more than Ragna stands out for BB, in my humble opinion.

Predictions
Crash: 51.4%
Spyro: 8.1%

Nominations
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x 5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Sol Badguy

Chance- 5%
I could definitely see it happening if FP2 goes the way of more 3rd party reps that appeal to niche groups rather than the majority. Arcsys is already involved with the game as we've seen with the River City spirit event. I personally think he's got a slightly higher possibility of being thrown in as a mii fighter with someone else.

Want- 0%
I have no attachment to the character at all. Arcsys make good games but I've never played Guilty Gear. From an aesthetic standpoint, he's an ugly dude with anime hair and a big weapon. From a moveset standpoint... he's not much better. As I've learned from some GG fans, he's not exactly a swordfighter (and the way he uses his weapon he may as well not even have it?? He uses the short side of it 99% of the time? It's... odd.) but then he's just a slightly better range version of Terry or Ryu, with some GG-specific mechanics. Maybe airdashing? Maybe some kind of burst thing? He just doesn't sound interesting to me at all.

Ragna

Chance- 0%
If we get a playable ArcSys rep, it WILL be Sol Badguy. Ragna has zero chance in hell of beating him out. The only other ArcSys rep that could get in over Sol would be from River City... but spirit events be damned. That said, if we got Sol (whether playable or a mii fighter) Ragna would almost certainly come with him as a mii fighter.

Want- 0%
Unlike Sol, I've actually played a game with Ragna in it- and I still don't care. Sure, he has some cool mechanics and a spike ""projectile"" thing he can do, but overall he's still a swordfighter. At best he'd be Ryu/Terry with a sword and some mechanics from BlazBlue. In other words... I don't care. At least he's slightly nicer to look at imo.

Predictions:
Crash- 69%
Spyro- 4%

Zeraora Echo x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Sol Badguy
Ragna the Bloodedge
Both Chance: 45%
All third-party characters who are moderately recognizable and/or popular have a fair shot in my opinion. Being niche, based on the current line-up we have, isn't much of an issue. Nintendo definitely isn't going down a list of "most-successful franchises," so I could see them choosing one of these characters for the people who like their games.

Both Want: 0%
I'm happy with Street Fighter being in Smash as the face of fighting games, I really don't need anyone else from the genre. Maybe aside from Scorpion and Filia, and that's just because I really like Filia and Samson's design + fighting style, and Mortal Kombat being in Smash is a ridiculous idea I love. I've also got no real history with either of these characters, so I'd have no reaction to them.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Crash and Spyro.

Predict Tracer from Overwatch and Thrall from World of Warcraft.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs for today's characters:

Crash

Spoiler: Crash Music

Spyro

Spoiler: Spyro Music

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

<snip>

No Twinsanity music? A'ight imma head out.

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 6%
I don't think Crash is happening. MandyCan never knew anything, and nobody important has actually said anything substantial in his favor. Crash becoming more relevant all of a sudden with the Crash remastered trilogy doesn't suddenly make him a required choice. If he had stayed relevant since his inception, he'd absolutely be a no-brainer.

Want: 11%
Eh. As much as I loved the Crash games I played as a kid (especially Twinsanity and Tag Team Racing) I don't have too strong of an attachment to him. Sure, he's miles better than a good majority of 3rd party choices, but he's just not exciting to me. His moveset potential isn't exactly through the roof. A cool spin move, maybe a fruit bazooka? Eh.

However if we get Twinsanity music in Smash I will ABSOLUTELY not complain.

Spyro

Chance: 5%
Unlike others I don't see Spyro as significantly less likely than Crash. Spyro arguably has a bigger tie to Nintendo, and has managed to not vanish from the face of the earth thanks to Skylanders. Plus, Skylanders pretty much singlehandedly created the trend that brought us Amiibo. I could definitely see him being picked over Crash.

Want: 22%
Just like with Crash, I played a lot of Spyro games as a kid, but don't have a particularly strong attachment to the character. Even then, Spyro is WAY more interesting for a moveset than Crash by a country mile. We only have 2 characters in Smash that aren't bipedal, and Spyro's signature moves both fit into a moveset very nicely. If his charge attack were used as a tool rather than a gimmick (by making it easily cancellable like in his games) he'd instantly be unique and have a really cool movement option.

Tracer: 2.14%
Thrall: 1.369%

Zeraora x5

 

[Sari]

No Twinsanity music? A'ight imma head out.

I chose songs from the original 3 games since I don't see Twinsanity music getting into Smash.

That said though, had it not been for my usual 3 song limit I definitely would've posted the N. Sanity Island theme.

 

[Ridrool64]

The rocket with a pocket

Chance: What is there to say about Crash that hasn't been said many a time before? MandyCan, SchmandyCan, I'm going with an 90% anyway. Dude has it all: there's plenty to work with for a moveset, he provides a unique character that Smash has never had on a good guy before (in the form of somebody who... well... is insane), he's incredibly popular worldwide, and he's relevant thanks to the power of nostalgia cashing. I can't imagine Activision would be enough of blowhards to **** up getting Crash in Smash, either. If I could, I'd bet on Crash. He has a leg up on his competitors, too! Crash not only has way more legacy, but also fan demand, compared to somebody like Tracer or a WoW rep. I'm not gonna claim he "fits Smash better" than them because that's a pretty narrow definition of what does, but Crash is perhaps the only Smash contender to have it all. The only reason I won't go 100% is because Vergeben didn't say so, no credible picture/video leak has shown up, and Nintendo hasn't spoiled it for us.

Want: 90%. If I can't have Arle, but I can have Crash, that's a pretty fair trade. He's my "nostalgia pick", though it's not quite the games I imagine most people wanting him for nostalgia would think of. It's Wrath of Cortex and Tag Team Racing, and to a lesser extent, Twinsanity, CTR, THEN 2 and Warped. I... I love those games. I have to admit it, those are some of my favorites. While I have not made a moveset concept for him personally, I've seen enough that how he'd feel in Smash and what he could bring to it as a whole appeal to me a lot. He better have music from Wrath and Twinsanity though, but based on Banjo that's not gonna happen and I'm sad. It's weird: I never really considered Crash as an actual Smash contender until 2017. In a world where Madou Monogatari doesn't exist, Crash would be my number 1 easy peasy.

From Denzel Crocker to SpongeBob SquarePants/Ice King

Chance: 5%. Unlike Crash, I can't think of a single good reason for Spyro to get in over him, Tracer, or even a World of Warcraft representative. Whereas Crash's games have at least some fans (as I can attest to), Spyro more or less died during the 2000's. He had Skylanders, sure, but he became a face in the crowd in that, not even being a star anymore. Combined with him lacking Japanese popularity, things are pretty bleak for the dragon if he doesn't suddenly become a Ridley level western want. If he does I'm going way higher, but for now I would not bet on Spyro.

Want: 25%. Unlike Crash, again, I don't have nearly the same attachment to Spyro. Coming from the 6th and 7th generations for childhood, Spyro was pretty consistently under the radar, and while I disagree with the notion that Crash's only good games were on the PlayStation, I do believe that of Spyro (at least, of the classic games), Enter the Dragonfly being a Sonic 06 level disaster. And sure, Spyro 3 is great. But I also don't get the hype around him to an extent. He's a biped! But, how does he grab enemies? How does he hold items? It works for Duck Hunt because DH doesn't talk, but Spyro does. They're brothers from other mothers, sure, but at this point I'd be more or less fine with him getting a Mii Hat. Spyro Helmet... sounds neat. But he at least is interesting enough that I won't throw him into the trash.

In before today's announcement is a Crash Bandicoot spirit event and I end up eating my words. Bonus points if, he's not there, but Crash is a Mii Costume in Spyro's Challenger Pack.

DLC Music x 5. Tracer is right behind Crash, and in a world where legacy didn't matter she'd probably be on top. 11.59%, because I imagine most have an axe to grind against her or her series. Thrall, on the other hand... is perhaps the antithesis of this board. 0.47%, but not because he's that unlikely.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Crash:

Chance: 50% - Definitely the most likely western character imo, he basically ticks every box you'd want from a Smash character, and it's looking like he'll stay relevant for a long time yet. Out of all the potential big shots out there I imagine he's probably the one that's easiest for Nintendo to obtain the rights for too, we're obviously not going through the whole pass without one or two newcomers that make waves through the wider gaming community, and compared to the likes of Sora or Master Chief he's a much safer bet.

However, he is a western character, and from how Sakurai described the process of including Banjo, the language barrier does complicate things. Because of this I really don't expect more than one, or maybe two western characters, and with such limited spots it means competition is very fierce between all of them. As I said, I consider Crash the likeliest of the bunch, in no small thanks due to him at least having some presence in Japan, but there is still a decent chance that he just doesn't make it because of the whole situation with western characters.

Want: 95% - There are very few characters I'd rather have in than Crash at this point, and the few that I do want more are pretty unrealistic. I grew up during Crash's prime, so I view him as one of the few genuine video game giants that still aren't in, his inclusion would be one of those that really feel like it expands the game's scope. On top of that I've played the original trilogy (plus Bash) to death at this point, so beyond his icon status he's also just a character I'm personally very fond of. As far as characters I want in this pass, I've essentially placed almost all of my chips on Crash, with a few spare ones set aside for Ryu Hayabusa, so here's hoping.

Spyro:

Chance: 3% - While it seems like most of the pieces are falling in place for Crash, the opposite is pretty much true for Spyro. A lot of people consider Crash and Spyro a sort of cross-series duo, and for good reason, but Spyro is the definitely the little brother of the two, pretty much everything he represents Crash does to a bigger extent, and as such he stands little chance of making it as long as the bandicoot still isn't in. Furthermore, his series' dreadful sales in Japan means he has no legacy to speak of there, and with that no real reason to be included. He basically has everything going against him, and will have to hope that by the time the next Smash rolls around, his series has built some sort of presence overseas.

Want: 85% - I largely have the same attachment to Spyro as I have to Crash, just to a slightly lesser degree. I grew up during his series' prime, and I love the original trilogy, and while not to the same extent as Crash, he's still a character I'm very fond of. I do kinda have the mindset that Crash should get in first, but in the event that Spyro should make it you won't find me being anything other than ecstatic, regardless of anything else.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Crash'm Smash'm
Chance: 35%
I'm not factoring in whatever Mandycan't spouted. Crash is still a good possibility regardless. We all are aware about his status. A gaming icon who went dormant for a while only to have one of the biggest resurcences in gaming history and with how much of a succes it has been it's likely the bandicoot won't go away anytime soon. Combined with his huge popularity in both the east and west makes him a prime candidate for DLC...yet I'm not predicting him.
I've kinda fallen back on my own budget theory, where I'm seeing our remaining six characters being from companies that aren't that major or are already close with Nintendo or Smash Bros, due to the possibility of the budget and amount of manpower not being as big as with last pass, which honestly didn't have that many big hitting characters anyway. I have doubts Activision would apply to those conditions. I'll admit I could very well be when we know who FP6 is but it's what I'm thinking.

Want: 60%
I've only recently beaten Crash 1 on the N.Sane trilogy since we last rated him. He wouldn't make me spin out of my seat or anything, there are still third-parties I want more but I'd certainly appreciate and respect his inclusion.

I'm sorry TCT
Chance: 0%
Crash is just so much more iconic and likelier. Spyro is just second banana compared to him. It especially doesn't help he's as popular as Rayman in Japan, by which I mean obscure. I also really don't see Activision walking away with two fighters even if we'll eventually get a third pass. Even in that case, you could argue a character from Blizzard being likelier than him.

Want: 1%
Yeah, no attachment and I'm currently not in a rush to play his games. Honestly his inclusion would just leave me kinda confused compared to Crash and other third-party picks.

Tracer: 4.57%
Thrall: 2.28%
Reporter and Wrestler x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 70% - Crash has it all! Legacy, relevancy, Nintendo History, Fan demand, and a position as one of gaming's biggest icons. While the series seems to lean towards PS4 in terms of favor, I can still see Nintendo wanting to try fir the character and seeing benefit in his inclusion. N. Sane trilogy and Nitro Fueled are multiplatform but are on the Switch, and recieved the same content as the other versions. Furthermore Crash has history with Nintendo, with Wrath of Cortex, the GBA games, and even the (infamous) Crash of the Titans and Mind Over Mutant. Nintendo and Activision still maintain a positive relationship with each other and have over the years, a big example being the Skylanders collaboration they did a few years ago. Nintendo has done negotiations with them before, and this along with the character's history would make things much easier for Sakurai.

Another huge plus is Crash's popularity in Japan. At the time, a western mascot becoming huge over there was extremely rare (and still is!), and the masses loved Crash, complete with music and everything! This along shows he has worldwide appeal and has that hone market appeal that Nintendo would be looking for.

The only real issue I can see is competition from other Activision-Blizzard characters, along with the fact that N Sane Trilogy apparently didn't do well in Japan. But the immense fan demand for Crash has definitely caught Nintendo's eye, and the moveset potential and history would really appeal to Sakurai, so I don't see Nintendo passing him up for someone like Tracer. And I can't see Nintendo having a reason to advertise Thrall, as cool as he is.

Things are looking as good as ever for Crash!

Want: 100% - One of my most wanted characters! My first experience with Crash was the GBA game The Huge Adventure, which plays like the classic games but in pure 2D. I explored every inch if that game, though my interest in the series lay dormant afterward, until Reignited Trilogy reinvigorated it. I had an absolute blast with it, and I think Crash has more than earned his spot in the game! He'd be super fun to play as and represent a significant element if gaming's history!


Spyro the Dragon

Chance: 10% - Spyro the Dragon is in a very odd position. He has many if the same advantages as Crash but also some major downsides. Firstly, his association with the Bandicoot both helps and hinders him. It is a significant part of his history and the Duo is often viewed together/associated with one another, but at the same time it would be odd for Spyro ti get in before Crash. Spyro was extremely good in his own right but Crash's star power as Sony's defacto mascot at the time gave him the publicity edge that makes some people see him as the "greater" of the two.

Another major blow is his lack of Japanese popularity. Spyro was the unfortunate victim of some awful localization decisions when his first two games were brought to Japan. It had such a negative effect on the gameplay that the game never caught on, and Year of the Dragon never even got a Japanese release. Spyro would've likely been close to Crash levels of popularity there if it hadn't happened.

Still, Spyro is very iconic in his own right, and like his buddy Crash he is in the middle of a very successful revival. Reignited Trilogy did very well and he's joined in on the fun with Nitro Fueled, so Spyro's got a lot of appeal of his own. The main factor is that it'd be odd for him to get in before Crash, and while they could surprise us with a double reveal, I can't imagine a Western developer getting two characters at once, which is unfortunate. Still, there's plenty of hope for the purple dragon!

Want: 70% - I never had much experience with Spyro as a kid beyond the bizarre commercials for Enter the Dragonfly and the GBA games. Though all of that changed when I watched Vinny Vinesauce's stream where he played Spyro 1 Reignited and saw how fun the game looked. I picked up Reignited when it came out on Switch and had an absolute blast with it. The gameplay was fun and fluid, the music was great, and it looked gorgeous! It was very inspiring, and I was even able to come up with an easy moveset for Spyro based on his iconic moves from the trilogy. In a way, he feels built for Smash, and I'd honestly love to see him join the roster!


Nominations:
Gex x5 (when are we gonna lock the Top 7?)

Predictions:
Tracer - 5.31%
Thrall - 1.06%

 

[Sari]

Crash

Chance: 55%
Crash is probably the only character who I'm comfortable giving a +50% chance score nowadays.

• Incredibly iconic.
• Had two successful reboot games that released just in time for season 2 consideration.
• We've seen Nintendo collaborate with Activision before via the Bowser and DK figures in Skylanders.
• Very popular in Japan.

Honestly the only hurdle I can see for Crash is him being a Western character, but I think his pros more than outweigh his cons.

Want: 100%
I played the N. Sane Trilogy last year and instantly got hooked on the Crash series. His games are very fun and challenging while Crash himself has a ton of potential to be an awesome fighter. Oh and Nitro-Fueled is one of my favorite games of 2019 (and quite possibly my favorite racing game ever). It's a blast to play and seems to just keep getting better and better with each update.

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Spyro

Chance: 5%
Same story as usual: his games flopped in Japan and he's always been overshadowed by Crash. The only time Spyro was probably more relevent than Crash was during the Skylanders era of the early 2010s (when Crash was pretty much dead), but those days are over and Crash just seems to be much bigger thanks to the N. Sane Trilogy and Nitro-Fueled. There's just no way we get Spyro in Smash before Crash.

Want: 60%
I finished the first Spyro game for the first time recently via the Reignited Trilogy. It's a fun game and I think I'd enjoy the content that Spyro could bring with him. Between Crash and Spyro however, I am definitely more of a Crash person so I wouldn't want Spyro to get in over him.

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Tracer chance prediction: 12.62%
Thrall chance prediction: 0.88%

Want scores for both characters are definitely gonna take a hit from last time after the Hong Kong incident and the recent Warcraft III: Reforged debacle. Not sure how the chance scores will be affected, though I think people will overblow how much the Blitzchung controversy will hurt the chances of a Blizzard rep.

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Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[Deleted member]

The mos important rate their chances for me, here we go.

Crash

Chance: 80% I think Mandycan was onto something and he will be coming will he be arriving as fighter pass 6 maybe not bit I believe he is coming.


Want: 80% Iconic mascot character that'd be a great addition. And a fun moveset on general don't have much an attachment to him but yes want him in.

Spyro

Chance: 50% I want to say yes his chances are better. But I doubt they are. Probably Judy going to be a spirit or Mio costume if Crash gets on! And I'm fine with that.

Want: 100%. Yes a thousand times over. He is the character I want in most love his series, and after seeing Reignitrd Trilogy. Definetly want him more then ever.

Predictions: Tracer 48.5%

 

[NintenRob]

Crash
Chance 35%
Want 35%
Spyro
Chance 1%
Want 40%
Sari pretty much covered it all here. Crash is more likely than Spyro because he was actually a success there. Spyro's design does appeal to me slightly more, but Crash would bring some Australian love with him which is cool too. I am a little concerned about Crash music though. It doesn't seem like a good fit for Smash. I don't think it affects his chances, but just something I wanted to mention. I still need to finish his game. And I need to get started on Spyro. Does anyone know what the switch version is like?

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction tracer 10%
Thrall 0%