Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ura]

It really baffles me that people can be clamoring for Breath of the Wild Link but be so against the idea of Paper Mario being in the game.

 

[Opossum]

It really baffles me that people can be clamoring for Breath of the Wild Link but be so against the idea of Paper Mario being in the game.

I'm almost certain those aren't the same groups of people.

 

[Troykv]

It really baffles me that people can be clamoring for Breath of the Wild Link but be so against the idea of Paper Mario being in the game.

Well... with BotW Link the trailer invites to speculate...

And... different groups.

 

[YoshiandToad]

If you look at the selected costumes in Miitopia, you would realise that it only consists of characters Nintendo think are important to their series. There are only 4 Animal Crossing characters picked alongside the sixteen possible ones. Splatoon was a massive hit for Nintendo so they were included. Ness was from a cult classic game. Daisy was included over Wario, Diddy Kong and Waluigi in that game, even though a Wario/Waluigi costume would be much much easier to do. This game was developed in the time when Smash Bros. planning might have been done.

They also shipped more Daisy, Boo and Rosalina amiibo than the other amiibo in Japan - these were the only three amiibo that were added to the badge arcade after Mario, Luigi, Peach, Yoshi, Toad and Bowser.

The fact that Namco went back and added her to a very old game that did not get updated for a long time, and did not make her a clone in that game or their sports projects makes me hopeful.

Oh, and I absoultely think that Waluigi has real fans.

Forgive me for not understanding but how does this all not also benefit Toad as much as Daisy?

He too got an Amiibo and a Miitopia outfit and appeared in Super Mario Run after all as well as being in the starter lineup for said Mario Kart game.

You Daisy fans are somewhat impressive. We Toad fans got a whole spinoff game dedicated to him and playable roles last gen in the main Mario platformers and I'm still doubting my boys chances.

 

[RosiePeaches]

And this is what I say when people let their bias taint their visions. No, Daisy is NOT a Mario Kart palette swap. She has different animations too in Mario Kart and in other games she plays very differently. In Mario Sports she is more powerful but less graceful in control than Peach. She can manipulate flowers to her advantage to blind and stop her opponents or to give her a boost throughout various Mario Party and Sports games. As for Toad, he has been left out of a few games, whilst Daisy was playable, because of his lack of ability to really do anything. Captain Toad cannot even jump.


If Dixie Kong was a more prominent character than Daisy is, then why could she not even get in Mario Maker, or even in many Donkey Kong themed places while Diddy Kong was recognised as both a Mario and Donkey Kong character? She has been forgotten in pretty much everything Nintendo related in the oast few years besides Tropical Freeze but Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong still keep appearing in games and merchandise. At least Daisy is still a part of Mario and she is starting to maker her way back to the “main series” recently.

 

[Opossum]

And this is what I say when people let their bias taint their visions. No, Daisy is NOT a Mario Kart palette swap. She has different animations too in Mario Kart and in other games she plays very differently. In Mario Sports she is more powerful but less graceful in control than Peach. She can manipulate flowers to her advantage to blind and stop her opponents or to give her a boost throughout various Mario Party and Sports games. As for Toad, he has been left out of a few games, whilst Daisy was playable, because of his lack of ability to really do anything. Captain Toad cannot even jump.


If Dixie Kong was a more prominent character than Daisy is, then why could she not even get in Mario Maker, or even in many Donkey Kong themed places while Diddy Kong was recognised as both a Mario and Donkey Kong character? She has been forgotten in pretty much everything Nintendo related in the oast few years besides Tropical Freeze but Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong still keep appearing in games and merchandise. At least Daisy is still a part of Mario and she is starting to maker her way back to the “main series” recently.

Protip: Attempting to tear down other characters doesn't make Daisy any more likely. It only continues to enforce the increasingly common viewpoint that Daisy fans are memoryman-level insane. If that's a viewpoint you think is unfair, I'd suggest not doing things that'd further perpetuate it. This day is about Daisy, not Dixie.

 

[DJ3DS]

And this is what I say when people let their bias taint their visions. No, Daisy is NOT a Mario Kart palette swap. She has different animations too in Mario Kart and in other games she plays very differently. In Mario Sports she is more powerful but less graceful in control than Peach. She can manipulate flowers to her advantage to blind and stop her opponents or to give her a boost throughout various Mario Party and Sports games. As for Toad, he has been left out of a few games, whilst Daisy was playable, because of his lack of ability to really do anything. Captain Toad cannot even jump.

If Dixie Kong was a more prominent character than Daisy is, then why could she not even get in Mario Maker, or even in many Donkey Kong themed places while Diddy Kong was recognised as both a Mario and Donkey Kong character? She has been forgotten in pretty much everything Nintendo related in the oast few years besides Tropical Freeze but Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong still keep appearing in games and merchandise. At least Daisy is still a part of Mario and she is starting to maker her way back to the “main series” recently.

You cannot be serious.

Toad has appeared in basically every main series Mario game, often playable, and is playable in virtually every spinoff. Arguing Daisy against Toad on any kind of relevance to the series is just idiocy.

Dixie Kong: forgotten in everything related to DK, except of course its main platformer title as a playable character, which is more than Daisy has ever gotten.

Daisy isn't suddenly making her way back into the series. Until she shows up in a main Mario platformer, she's still a spin off character. But until then she's even further towards the bottom of the barrel now that Pauline made such a resurgence in such a big way.

There is bias in the thread today, and it's very noticeable - its the fact the only people giving Daisy a ghost of a chance are (big surprise) also giving her the 100% want rating.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

I swear it seems like the only people who think Daisy is a likely candidate for Smash are huge Daisy fans themselves.

 

[Chromfirmed]

Protip: Attempting to tear down other characters doesn't make Daisy any more likely. It only continues to enforce the increasingly common viewpoint that Daisy fans are memoryman-level insane

Please, don't generalize. Because I could say the same of some fans of other characters...

If that's a viewpoint you think is unfair, I'd suggest not doing things that'd further perpetuate it. This day is about Daisy, not Dixie.

I think the debate is absurd. Everyone has their opinion and that's it. Debate finished.

Let's not distort the subject, we should be happy for a new Smash Bros.

 

[Opossum]

Please, don't generalize. Because I could say the same of some fans of other characters...

I think the debate is absurd. Everyone has their opinion and that's it. Debate finished.

Let's not distort the subject, we should be happy for a new Smash Bros.

Oh I'm not the one generalizing. I'm just saying it's incredibly easy for others to do so, is all.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I dunno mate. Daisy appears in a sum total of one main series Mario game - no, I haven't counted the mobile game. Dixie is a playable character in 3 of them. She's not only far more important to her franchise than Daisy has ever been, she's also had the appearances to give her an actual inspiration for a moveset.

By the way it feels like it defeats the point to rag on about deluded DK fans and then argue the ballot as justification, because if they're deluded you're just demonstrably suffering the same symptoms.

...anyway, guess I should actually RTC...

Paper Mario

Chance: 20%

I don't think it's impossible but it's unlikely. I would expect Toad in first as he appears in the main games, whereas Paper Mario is a spin off.

Want: 25%

I don't really know the character or what he could do, but I'm not particularly opposed to him.

Daisy

Chance: 5%

As a low effort costume swap of Peach, but even still I feel this is pushing it given Daisy is pretty much relegated to a Mario Kart palette swap by this point. She was very quickly pushed to one side in favour of Rosalina and I can see her being pushed even further back by Pauline (who I also don't see as likely).

Want: 0%

What is it with this character? She's a spin off character with no relevance to the main series beyond a game released in 1989. She was dead for a decade before being brought back as a character in 2000 Power Tennis, and since then has been a filler in Mario sports games. She has no demonstrable moveset outside of filler abilities for Mario sports games, and if you're going to make a character hinging on self parody then Waluigi pulls it off better. Daisy would make a fun alt for Peach - even then with some issues like Toad - but nothing more.

To her defense, not counting the 50 something spin-offs she appears in is kinda stupid.
It's her forte, saying spin-offs don't count obviously ruins her chances, but who says they don't?
Yeah, spin-off characters tend to be filler, but since Daisy appears very consistently in spin-offs, even with small rosters (Mario Party: The Top 100 had EIGHT playable characters, including Daisy) we're long past the point where she's in because there's no one left to add.
Daisy's power isn't to magically appear in a big main game role: It's to have an admirable ability to be in every sports/party game Mario puts out on a dang consistent basis, being in 70 games in some form, which causes her to have a very strong casual appeal.

And are main games really that much better for moveset building than spin-offs?
Spin-off filler specials can build a consistent visual theme for a character in a way main games can't.
Of course a main game is better, but you gotta give some credit to spin-offs here and the characters that appear in it.

It's like saying you can't count the games where Ridley wasn't the final boss.
Yeah, being the final boss is cool and all and generally more important, but other appearances have value, even if significantly less so.

I don't get the fetish Daisy fans have when it comes to discrediting the DK series and I will never understand it. I've rated Daisy without bringing down other competitors and I hope other fans will continue to do the same.

I swear it seems like the only people who think Daisy is a likely candidate for Smash are huge Daisy fans themselves.

I mean, a fan of a character tends to follow trends and appearances that others don't, it's a universal thing really

 

[zipzapsparkle]

I find it odd that people are using Pauline as a means to tear Daisy down while on her day she was torn down because she’s not as in many games as Daisy. I think there’s a bias people have against the characters that aren’t deemed likely/fan-favorites. I expect the same for Funky Kong or any other character that rivals fan-favorites.

 

[AEMehr]

Daisy
Chance: Definitely kinda low, I'll say like 20%?
+ Pretty well known.
= In terms of IP relevance, she's a princess in the Mario series. There's only two others and they're in Smash. But hasn't had a place in a big game for a long time, Rosa has been used pretty often since her debut too.
- Nothing to really promote due to lack of notable appearances.
- Has some moveset potential (Party/Sports/etc. Spin-offs), but nothing that really naturally makes her unique gameplay-wise (Those can applied to other characters).
- Objectively a character that is easily suited to be a costume fighter, much like Alph, though probably using Flowers instead of Hearts for her gfx. I personally believe this is where her best chance lies.

Want: No real interest, 0%.
Between the three Princesses I like Daisy's spunky attitude the most, but I do feel her potential toolkit is a bit too bland. I'd rather have her as a costume fighter and giving the title of Spin-Off Super Star to Waluigi since his unique body-type allows for more creative freedom to make something interesting.

Paper Mario
Chance: It feels like a hat toss, 50%
+ Definitely has a lot of moveset potential
+ Has a vocal fan base regarding it's IP, should be aware people are fond of him.
+ Relevance / Importance are obvious it's Mario.
= It's Mario, so Sakurai may feel inclined to incorporate similar "all-rounded" elements to between the two Marios but with different kits. Would people like that?
= Toss-Up between which Paper Mario is designed. Will it be the classic Paper Mario or the Color Splash one? Little Mac / PAC-MAN show that Sakurai doesn't limit himself to what's new for characters that see new titles. Would players not be happy with the "new" Paper Mario being in Smash if he couldn't get to make the classic one?
= Mr. Game & Watch is flat, but that's not really a feature for him. That's just part of his aesthetic. Paper Mario would likely use his flatness as a feature within his moveset in some way.
- Overall reception of Paper Mario's games have diminished heavily, Nintendo could be against the inclusion if they don't believe in the IP's future.

Want: I think he'd be really fun, 70%
Comparing to other Mario characters, he ranks pretty high on my interest list. If he's not in I won't be upset, but I'd be very fond of having him.

 

[Starcutter]

Daisy: 30%
Literally the only way I see daisy getting in is if they pull the whole "Dark Pit/Lucina" thing from last game and start off making her a peach costume and then differentiate her later. I can't see a unique character being planned for daisy.

Want: 30% I love me some low-effort clones, but I have no attachment to Daisy.

Paper Mario: 35%
I think as a full out, unique character, Paper Mario is likelier than Dasiy by about 30% Color Splash had a generally favorable reception, and I think he's decently popular. I just don't see more than one or two Mario characters being added, and I think both Waluigi and Captian Toad are likelier.

Want: 70%
Paper Mario is real cool. I really like all of the games. All three of them.

Pichu prediction: 16%
Young Link Prediction 17%

Snip & Clip x5

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

I find it odd that people are using Pauline as a means to tear Daisy down while on her day she was torn down because she’s not as in many games as Daisy. I think there’s a bias people have against the characters that aren’t deemed likely/fan-favorites. I expect the same for Funky Kong or any other character that rivals fan-favorites.

But Pauline is a Nintendo Starlet while Daisy isn't.

 

[DJ3DS]

To her defense, not counting the 50 something spin-offs she appears in is kinda stupid.
It's her forte, saying spin-offs don't count obviously ruins her chances, but who says they don't?
Yeah, spin-off characters tend to be filler, but since Daisy appears very consistently in spin-offs, even with small rosters (Mario Party: The Top 100 had EIGHT playable characters, including Daisy) we're long past the point where she's in because there's no one left to add.
Daisy's power isn't to magically appear in a big main game role: It's to have an admirable ability to be in every sports/party game Mario puts out on a dang consistent basis, being in 70 games in some form, which causes her to have a very strong casual appeal.

And are main games really that much better for moveset building than spin-offs?
Spin-off filler specials can build a consistent visual theme for a character in a way main games can't.
Of course a main game is better, but you gotta give some credit to spin-offs here and the characters that appear in it.

It's like saying you can't count the games where Ridley wasn't the final boss.
Yeah, being the final boss is cool and all and generally more important, but other appearances have value, even if significantly less so.

I don't get the fetish Daisy fans have when it comes to discrediting the DK series and I will never understand it. I've rated Daisy without bringing down other competitors and I hope other fans will continue to do the same.

First off - 50 games or 70? That's a pretty noticeable difference and you've mentioned both.

I don't think spin-offs ruin her chances, but I don't think they really add anything to her. Wikipedia suggests she's been in 57 games - that sounds like a lot but Waluigi has (by Super Mario Wiki) been in upwards of 50 as well, and he debuted a whole decade later! If Sakurai were to add her as something other than a Peach reskin, do we believe he cares enough to sort through all those games to put together that theme? Moreover, do we think he'd do it over Waluigi, who's already got something of the kind as an AT, and is arguably as popular on a casual level, even if its as a meme? Personally I don't.

I think Ridley is a false equivalence, by the way. If Daisy appeared in Super Mario Odyssey as the Princess of the Sand Kingdom (for example) then I'd be giving her a lot more consideration, but to me spinoffs aren't enough.

I find it odd that people are using Pauline as a means to tear Daisy down while on her day she was torn down because she’s not as in many games as Daisy. I think there’s a bias people have against the characters that aren’t deemed likely/fan-favorites. I expect the same for Funky Kong or any other character that rivals fan-favorites.

I should clarify that my viewpoint (as a fan of neither character, though I admittedly prefer Pauline for various reasons) is that I think that after Pauline's reception, she is going to be pushed as the big new thing in Mario, much as Rosalina was. I don't think Pauline has a ghost of a chance for Smash Switch, but if she doesn't start appearing in Mario sports spinoffs soon I'd be very surprised, and if that happens I'd honestly rate her much higher than Daisy next time around.

As in I guess my argument is that I don't think Daisy is becoming more relevant to Mario, I think Mario has another character it's gonna promote instead.

 

[Megaban]

Ok, so.
DAISY
Chance-20%
Wouldn't say she's likely, but she isn't impossible either. Problem is she's mostly a typical "spinoff side character" with one "main games" appearance. Considering all other Mario characters ARE relevant in the main franchise, that makes it harder for her. But again, if Sakurai decides to rep spinoffs more, she might cut it.

Want-40%
Wouldn't mind, but I don't rly care about her and there is a different character from Mario I'd want in, like...

PAPER MARIO
Chance-27%
Not too likely either, because again, not "main" series character, tho it IS Mario and the star of pretty popular spinoff. Was playable in 6 games (not sports/kart racing etc. like Daisy) and har unique traits that cound be used. But yeah, depends if Sakurai decides to give more attention to spinoffs this time.

Want-80%.
Yes. Yes and again yes. I want spinoff reps (I mean, I legit carry one spinoff character in here) and Paper Mario is one series that deserves it imo. Great moveset potential, uniqueness, overall looks very appeaing possibility for me.

Nomination- Lana x5

Predictions:
Pichu 10%
Young Link 25%

 

[Mighty Moose]

Daisy
Chance: 10%
There's nothing to really promote her chances to be honest, and what would her moveset be? Spin-off games maybe, but why not Waluigi in that case?

Want: 0%
I have literally no interest in this character, the Mario franchise has much better potential reps (Toad/Captain Toad, Paper Mario, Waluigi) and even less interest somehow if she ended up a low effort Peach clone

Paper Mario
Chance: 45%
He'd be an interesting, unique character, but there's no reason to add him now that wasn't a reason to add him into Smash. If anything, Paper Mario is less prominent now than it would have been during Smash 4's development time. I guess Sakurai is running out of options with how big the roster is now though, and he was probably boosted by the Smash ballot.

Want: 65%
He'd be interesting, with plenty of unique moves to pull from, and I'd like to see the series get a representative.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

First off - 50 games or 70? That's a pretty noticeable difference and you've mentioned both.

I don't think spin-offs ruin her chances, but I don't think they really add anything to her. Wikipedia suggests she's been in 57 games - that sounds like a lot but Waluigi has (by Super Mario Wiki) been in upwards of 50 as well, and he debuted a whole decade later! If Sakurai were to add her as something other than a Peach reskin, do we believe he cares enough to sort through all those games to put together that theme? Moreover, do we think he'd do it over Waluigi, who's already got something of the kind as an AT, and is arguably as popular on a casual level, even if its as a meme? Personally I don't.

I think Ridley is a false equivalence, by the way. If Daisy appeared in Super Mario Odyssey as the Princess of the Sand Kingdom (for example) then I'd be giving her a lot more consideration, but to me spinoffs aren't enough.



I should clarify that my viewpoint (as a fan of neither character, though I admittedly prefer Pauline for various reasons) is that I think that after Pauline's reception, she is going to be pushed as the big new thing in Mario, much as Rosalina was. I don't think Pauline has a ghost of a chance for Smash Switch, but if she doesn't start appearing in Mario sports spinoffs soon I'd be very surprised, and if that happens I'd honestly rate her much higher than Daisy next time around.

As in I guess my argument is that I don't think Daisy is becoming more relevant to Mario, I think Mario has another character it's gonna promote instead.

https://www.mariowiki.com/index.php...&useformat=mobile#List_of_appearances_by_date

Technically she appears in 70 games but it includes each and every cameo, so I substracted things like amiibo functionality in Hey! Pikmin and Nintendo Badge Arcade.
She goes toe on toe with Waluigi in terms of total appearances iirc, with the "winner" being decided based on things like "Waluigi's Pinball Retro Course in Mario Kart 7 features a billboard of Waluigi"

But yeah, 5% is very fair if one doesn't believe a Mario character is gonna be added in the first place and I don't blame you for the mindset of "Why Daisy when Waluigi exists as the Spin-Off Character in Smash already?"

I think the answer to that last question is that there's no such thing as "Spin-Off Character" in the sense that there's gonna be a character whose moveset solely exists of taping together Mario Sports, instead, like Rosalina, they'd pick a distinctive playstyle (Like Rosalina was a puppeteer rather than "Let's make Super Mario Galaxy a playable character") and add elements from their respective games around it.

 

[RosiePeaches]

First off - 50 games or 70? That's a pretty noticeable difference and you've mentioned both.

I don't think spin-offs ruin her chances, but I don't think they really add anything to her. Wikipedia suggests she's been in 57 games - that sounds like a lot but Waluigi has (by Super Mario Wiki) been in upwards of 50 as well, and he debuted a whole decade later! If Sakurai were to add her as something other than a Peach reskin, do we believe he cares enough to sort through all those games to put together that theme? Moreover, do we think he'd do it over Waluigi, who's already got something of the kind as an AT, and is arguably as popular on a casual level, even if its as a meme? Personally I don't.

I think Ridley is a false equivalence, by the way. If Daisy appeared in Super Mario Odyssey as the Princess of the Sand Kingdom (for example) then I'd be giving her a lot more consideration, but to me spinoffs aren't enough.



I should clarify that my viewpoint (as a fan of neither character, though I admittedly prefer Pauline for various reasons) is that I think that after Pauline's reception, she is going to be pushed as the big new thing in Mario, much as Rosalina was. I don't think Pauline has a ghost of a chance for Smash Switch, but if she doesn't start appearing in Mario sports spinoffs soon I'd be very surprised, and if that happens I'd honestly rate her much higher than Daisy next time around.

As in I guess my argument is that I don't think Daisy is becoming more relevant to Mario, I think Mario has another character it's gonna promote instead.

Nintendo uses their mobile efforts as a way for people who don’t have consoles to get familiar with their IP. Koizumi mentioned that a lot of people got familar with Mario with Mario Run, and he has play data to back it up. The fact that Daisy out of all the characters they chosen was added to that game, with her own song and mode, and the game was made by a handful of Nintendo’s veteran staff, should not be slept on at all.

Here are what Nintendo considers to be “main” Mario characters.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/character/mario/characters/index.html

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Nintendo uses their mobile efforts as a way for people who don’t have consoles to get familiar with their IP. Koizumi mentioned that a lot of people got familar with Mario with Mario Run, and he has play data to back it up. The fact that Daisy out of all the characters they chosen was added to that game, with her own song and mode, and the game was made by a handful of Nintendo’s veteran staff, should not be slept on at all.

Here are what Nintendo considers to be “main” Mario characters.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/character/mario/characters/index.html

Ah yeah, Boo is my favorite main Mario character.

 

[RosiePeaches]

Ah yeah, Boo is my favorite main Mario character.

I will not dispute that it is iconic. Recently it has gotten more prominent roles in the Mario Sports games as a character.

 

[DaisyandRosalina]

I dunno mate. Daisy appears in a sum total of one main series Mario game - no, I haven't counted the mobile game. Dixie is a playable character in 3 of them. She's not only far more important to her franchise than Daisy has ever been, she's also had the appearances to give her an actual inspiration for a moveset.

By the way it feels like it defeats the point to rag on about deluded DK fans and then argue the ballot as justification, because if they're deluded you're just demonstrably suffering the same symptoms.

...anyway, guess I should actually RTC...

Paper Mario

Chance: 20%

I don't think it's impossible but it's unlikely. I would expect Toad in first as he appears in the main games, whereas Paper Mario is a spin off.

Want: 25%

I don't really know the character or what he could do, but I'm not particularly opposed to him.

Daisy

Chance: 5%

As a low effort costume swap of Peach, but even still I feel this is pushing it given Daisy is pretty much relegated to a Mario Kart palette swap by this point. She was very quickly pushed to one side in favour of Rosalina and I can see her being pushed even further back by Pauline (who I also don't see as likely).

Want: 0%

What is it with this character? She's a spin off character with no relevance to the main series beyond a game released in 1989. She was dead for a decade before being brought back as a character in 2000 Power Tennis, and since then has been a filler in Mario sports games. She has no demonstrable moveset outside of filler abilities for Mario sports games, and if you're going to make a character hinging on self parody then Waluigi pulls it off better. Daisy would make a fun alt for Peach - even then with some issues like Toad - but nothing more.

Nintendo said Run is a main Mario game (check out Mario Portal) so you have to count it. And DK games are main DK games not main Mario games...

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

I will not dispute that it is iconic. Recently it has gotten more prominent roles in the Mario Sports games as a character.

Surprised Koopa and Goomba aren't there then. Is it just because Boos are cooler/cuter?

 

[DaisyandRosalina]

There is bias in the thread today, and it's very noticeable - its the fact the only people giving Daisy a ghost of a chance are (big surprise) also giving her the 100% want rating.

Considering that a lot of people who like Daisy gave her a low rated chance level... no it's not bias.

 

[RosiePeaches]

Condidering that a lot of people who like Daisy gave her a low rated chance level... no it's not bias.

I can kind of see why, no one wants to have the unpopular opinion and get ridiculed...

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Nintendo said Run is a main Mario game (check out Mario Portal) so you have to count it. And DK games are main DK games not main Mario games...

Do you want to provide a link to where Nintendo said Mario Run was a main series Mario game?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Please do not talk about Banned Users. That is all.

 

[Leafeon523]

First.
Paper Mario
AND HE IS NOTHING LIKE MARIO!

wut

Anyway,
HI I'M DAISY

Chance: 10%
I could see this happening as a clone of peach, but otherwise @TheAnvil summarized what I wanted to say perfectly.

Want: 10%
HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M DAISY HI I'M WALUIGIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

Paper cuts:
Chance: 20%
I feel like having competition from G&W is a bigger issue than people realize. I also feel like he would have been added back in 4 if Sakurai really wanted him in. But I don't see 3 Marios as an issue (he is the main face of Nintendo after all).

Want: 65%
This one really comes down to the moveset. If it's great I'll be hyped, if it's generic I'll be pissed.

Predicting both characters at 5.5%
Nominating Snip/Clip x4
Chibi-Robo x1

 

[DaisyandRosalina]

Do you want to provide a link to where Nintendo said Mario Run was a main series Mario game?

Here:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/character/mario/collection/mariobros/index.html
Click on the star icon

 

[RetroMetalSonic]

Daisy
Chance: 15%
Eh, I don't really see Daisy making it in as a playable character. Maybe as an alternate costume like the Koopalings and Alph, but her own slot? Not really...

Want: 25%
I wouldn't mind it if she made it, but there are a bunch of other characters I'd rather see than her.

Paper Mario
Chance: 38%
I think he has a decent chance. He's got plenty of moveset potential and features that'll set him apart from his non-paper counterpart and the rest of the cast, but I don't know if Sakurai would pick Paper Mario over other characters like (Captain) Toad or Kamek. Not to mention if Doctor Mario is still a thing I don't see much of a chance of a 3rd Mario becoming playable.

Want: 96%
Paper Mario is one of my most wanted newcomers. It'd be great if the Paper series got some representation besides trophies and a stage. And again, I think he'd be a pretty unique fighter.

 

[RosiePeaches]

Can someone tell me why Daisy has such a bad history but characters like Dixie Kong have a good one with Smash fans?

 

[Starcutter]

Can someone tell me why Daisy has such a bad history but characters like Dixie Kong have a good one with Smash fans?

While it's not Dixie's day anymore, I think it has to do with the fact that Dixie Co-starred in a very popular game, and then starred in a game of her own. Daisy is usually just a side character in Mario Spin-offs when she is playable.

I think it entirely has to do with how iconic Dixie's playable roles in the main games she appears in are, compared to the "Playable Character #8" Daisy has with the games she appears in.

But, this isn't Dixie's day, and there really isn't a good comparison between the two anyways

 

[AEMehr]

Here:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/character/mario/collection/mariobros/index.html
Click on the star icon

I mean it uses the Super Mario name, which is the brand-name of the mainline games. Even if Nintendo would want to look at Super Mario Run as a big Mario title, Toad and Toadette were playable in the game way before Daisy was. Additionally, looking at SMR as a member of the "Super Mario Bros." series, Toad has been playable and appeared in more games than Daisy.

In a franchise like Smash, that really wants to have each character feel like they're straight out of their games, I don't know if Daisy's ability to double jump does much for her, at least against some Mario characters that have natural attributes and abilities that make them their own thing.

You can argue SMR gave Daisy something, but that's not considering what it supplied for her major competition either.

 

[Morbi]

I have not seen so much debate in a RTC thread since, well, the old days and even then. I could not have expected this, definitely interesting.

Daisy

Chance: 45%

I can only speak for myself; however, this time around, it is fairly obvious that we are getting a Mario character one way or the other. The front-runners, are undoubtedly Daisy, Waluigi, and Toad (Captain). Paper Mario has definitely grown since last time around and his move-set potential is off the chain and serves to represent an entirely different aspect of Mario, so it could be him, I suppose. But it might technically count as another series ala Yoshi or Wario. So for the sake of rating, I am going to assume that to be the case. To that end, I could just put her at 33% and call it a day; however, because of the nature of her model, she could easily be made into a clone, that obviously increases her chances drastically relative to the other characters and any merit Waluigi has is shared with Daisy. To that end, I am going to crank it up a bit. I still believe Waluigi is more likely; however, Daisy is the next best as far as I am concerned. I have a feeling Toad is going to remain under Peach's dress.

Want: 100%

The best Mario character. She is basically Peach with more personality, which is funny, because the other day, in the Peach thread, someone wanted Peach's "girlishness" toned down and that is, like, all she even has. Whether she adopts a spin-off play-style or remains a clone, or even her own character, I am excited at the prospect.

Paper Mario

Chance: 50%

Assuming he is his own series, I do wonder if Doctor Mario would return. Because, that would make a lot of sense, but we would have three Mario. Nothing is stopping him, but it should be considered at least. The games sold relatively well, I believe, and we already have a precedent for a 2D figure. He would be a good way to avoid adding a "spin-off" character. He is a spin-off character, but he is still ****ing Mario. I could see this as a viable alternative or even in addition to one of the others. We are at the bottom of the barrel and sometimes you need a all-star to fix that. Mario is an all-star, why not just add him again? It could go either way.

Want: 100%

I used to hate the idea; however, I have really fallen for it. It would be a lot of fun and he already had a stage represented. That is the first step, fam.

 

[a smart guy]

The Mario line sold > 100,000 figures in Japan in late 2016 (Media Create White Book)

Paper Mario:

Chance: 1%

I am still very shocked that people think Sakurai would add THREE Marios in the game. Absolutely not. Smash Bros is not desperate for other characters that are ACTUALLY other characters, especially in the Mario franchise. I can only see him get in if Intelligent Systems pushes him somehow.

Want: 0%

Terrible choice. This would be the equivalent for cutting Diddy Kong for Metal Mario in terms of how awful it would be. Sure, it has novelty, but at the end of the day, Paper Mario is still very much Mario.

Daisy

Chance: 1%

I am still very shocked that Sakurai would add TWO Peaches in the game. Absolutely not. Smash Bros is not desperate for other characters that are other characters, especially in the Mario franchise. I can only see her get in if Camelot pushes her somehow.

Want: 0%

Terrible choice. This would be the equivalent for cutting Diddy Kong for Metal Mario in terms of how awful it would be. Sure, it has novelty, but at the end of the day, Daisy is still very much Peach.

I'm just trying to show your hypocrisy. Daisy is just brown-haired Peach. In all those trophies in SSB4 that Daisy fans go on about, it's always brown-haired Peach. One is literally Daisy as an alt-costume for Peach. One is baseball Daisy, to go with baseball Peach. One is tennis Daisy, to go along with tennis Peach. Only one trophy of Daisy's is actually unique, and it's in a very similar to pose to, you guessed it, Peach. Yes, Daisy has a different personality than Peach. In all other respects though, she is exactly the same. So, Sakurai might add her as a clone. For her fans, that would be doing an injustice to the character, so they wouldn't be happy. For her detractors, that would make them mad that she got an unreasonable spot in the game. It's a lose-lose for Sakurai. I appreciate your devotion to your girl, but this is ridiculous.

And yes, I am aware of her appearance in Mario Run. They needed a character to advertise a new mode, and they chose Daisy. Congratulations! They even gave her another jump. That's moveset diversity! (Don't pay attention to the fact that everyone in Smash can double jump) Unfortunately, I have to wonder if you're thinking this through. They couldn't give this role to any other characters, as most characters have already been shown not to have a double jump in Mario platformers. They wanted a female character, since the vocalist singing was female. They wanted someone they could add into the game easily. Hey, let's just make a Peach re-skin, which is exactly what they did.

Paper Mario

Chance: 10% At least his silhouette is different. I can see the clone complaints from a mile off, even though the RPG series would have stuff for movesets. Plus it would be challenging to make Paper Mario look like paper, as he does in his games. They couldn't just use Mr. Game and Watch technology, as Paper Mario folds and bends as he moves.

Want: 25% It's better than Daisy, I guess. Personally, I don't want any more Mario characters in Smash. Rosalina and Bowser Jr. felt like overkill to me. I suppose I wouldn't mind Waluigi, just so you could battle as all 4 of the brothers, but he's still another Mario character.

Predictions:
Pichu 34%
Young Link 4%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I mean it uses the Super Mario name, which is the brand-name of the mainline games. Even if Nintendo would want to look at Super Mario Run as a big Mario title, Toad and Toadette were playable in the game way before Daisy was. Additionally, looking at SMR as a member of the "Super Mario Bros." series, Toad has been playable and appeared in more games than Daisy.

In a franchise like Smash, that really wants to have each character feel like they're straight out of their games, I don't know if Daisy's ability to double jump does much for her, at least against some Mario characters that have natural attributes and abilities that make them their own thing.

You can argue SMR gave Daisy something, but that's not considering what it supplied for her major competition either.

Forgive my pessimism when it comes to our favorite fungus friend, but I feel our hope for him to appear is in the form of Captain Toad.
Daisy's double jump could at the very least give her her own spin on Peach's float-based gameplan, with Peach being all about micro-spacing and precise movement, Daisy would be less subtle in her way of moving.
It's obviously not the core of her set, but between athletic soccer kicks, a ball to smack around and the potential use of Bombshell Koopas, the extra jump can be a glue to tie the gameplan of a more restless and risky "Peach" together.

What SMR also gives to Daisy is an appearance in a game with a small cast and confirmation of the possibility of a dress-wearing princess wall jumping. It's not much, but having the line-up go Mario, Peach, Luigi, Yoshi, Toad, Toadette, Daisy is a welcome change from the usual spin-off roster

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Here:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/character/mario/collection/mariobros/index.html
Click on the star icon

Interesting. However, even if they truly do consider it to be a core Mario game Daisy's inclusion in it most likely came too late for Sakurai to take note of it. I also think there are other more requested Mario characters that Sakurai would find more interesting.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Interesting. However, even if they truly do consider it to be a core Mario game Daisy's inclusion in it most likely came to late for Sakurai to take note of it. I also think there are other more requested Mario characters that Sakurai would find more interesting.

Perfect timing for (semi)-clone antics though.

And yeah, there's a whole cesspool of wahoo-warriors out there for him to pick, but I feel Daisy has a case now to be an actual possibility. I rated her 15%, 80% a new Mario character happens and 15-20% spread across Cap'n Spothead, Papernik, Y.M.C.WAAAA and Brigitte in a Dress

 

[MrReyes96]

Paper Mario has his own games, his own movesets to choose from.

I would like Daisy but she would obviously be a rep for the Mario spin off games, and even then I’d prefer Waluigi because he can’t just be a model swap like Daisy could be.

Sakurai should go all out and finally make Daisy a unique skin for Peach