Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ZealousGamer]

"Hero" Satisfaction: 45%: Honestly, with the Dragon Quest Hero being based on the newest game; I'm underwhelmed. I'd rather a more Nintendo connected character be DLC like Geno representing Square Enix.

Banjo & Kazooie: 100%: They both fit so well. While I personally haven't played Banjo Kazooie games; I really am happy that they got in. The reactions people given them is almost as good as their reveal themselves!

 

[Deleted member]

"Hero" Satisfaction: 45%: Honestly, with the Dragon Quest Hero being based on the newest game; I'm underwhelmed. I'd rather a more Nintendo connected character be DLC like Geno representing Square Enix.

Yup because a third party series that was born on Nintendo, has every mainline game on Nintendo consoles, influenced Nintendo RPGs such as Pokemon and Earthbound, is regularly published by Nintendo instead of SE and the Nintendo versions receive special treatment is not connected enough.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Yup because a third party series that was born on Nintendo, has every mainline game on Nintendo consoles, influenced Nintendo RPGs such as Pokemon and Earthbound, is regularly published by Nintendo instead of SE and the Nintendo versions receive special treatment is not connected enough.

The character? No. He wasn't. Plain and simple. He is like Cloud. He appears on the Nintendo console but isn't seen as a Nintendo character. I treat "Hero" like Cloud.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The character? No. He wasn't. Plain and simple. He is like Cloud. He appears on the Nintendo console but isn't seen as a Nintendo character. I treat "Hero" like Cloud.

You know Luminary is on Switch, right? DQXI was the first game announced for the Switch (back when it was still NX). It released simultaneously on 3DS and PS4, and the definitive edition is a Switch exclusive.

I don't see how you get more Nintendo connected than that. It's nothing like Cloud.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Honestly, we won't agree. I have my opinion.

45%: Not interested. But not the worst.

 

[spoilerowl]

Hero: 60%. Know absolutely nothing about Dragon Quest. However, moveset looks sick (the specials, at least; normals seem very Link-derivative) and I'm always a sucker for alternate character palettes (pseudo-Goku Erdrick is my go-to of the four).

Banjo & Kazooie: 100%. If my sig, picture, or any post I've made on this forum don't make it obvious, Banjo was my most-wanted alongside K. Rool pretty much since I first played Smash 64 and Melee. Getting them both in (in the same game, nonetheless) is nothing short of a dream come true.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly, we won't agree. I have my opinion.

45%: Not interested. But not the worst.

An opinion isn't an opinion when it goes against reality.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

An opinion isn't an opinion when it goes against reality.

Opinions often are illogical. While there may be some evidence, the majority of opinions have at least a degree of subjective nature. Whether the Hero from DQ is truly Nintendo based is subjective. Personally, I do not care. Smash stopped being purely Nintendo based in 4. Now Smash is more or less Nintendo and Gaming in general as a celebration. P.S this is why there are only two indies I am willing to entertain having a chance.


Now onto my own ratings

Spoiler

Hero: 80% Satisfaction

Well, I should start by saying I am not the biggest DQ fan, primarily out of not playing them. From everything I have heard I will love DQ11 and plan on getting it September. But I have little experience with the franchise. That being said, DQ was something I could always acknowledge deserved Smash Status. It is a huge deal in Japan. As such, it made perfect sense to include him.

While I did support other SE characters, the only one I felt truly confident could rival DQ was Sora. Sora has his own web of legal issues due to the mouse being a pain to work with sometimes. I want him and support him, but I slowly became less confident in his chances. Maybe someday, but not now. As such, DQ getting in hurt me less since I basically accepted it was likely.

That being said, everything looks super well done. The care into bringing in four popular protagonists is awesome. I will likely rep Guv/Eight myself if I play the character since I dig the bandanna. The moveset looks interesting. I just want to know more about the MP system. Wish they showed off more.

My only other nitpick is no female alts, but with this much care, I can live with that.

Banjo Kazooie: 100% Satisfaction

This was a character for DLC I had a sneaking suspicion was in. I had a gut hunch since like February. But I did not expect them to do it so well.

The trailer was perfect. Literally reminding everyone that they were the impossible lost Nintendo character. A part of Nintendo history. A reason to celebrate.

Visually they look great. Perfect remaster of the character. Kazooie looks great, Banjo looks great, their animations oh my god. They all are perfect. I also love that not the whole pass will be humans.

The trailer theme was perfect, I can not wait to hear the rest.

The stage looks cool. They made spiral mountain cool!

One sneaking suspicion though. Grunty shows up, and the bridge to her lair is only seen in one scene. I think this might imply a boss battle of sorts.

They took one of my top 5 most wanted, did them justice, and made it a direct keynote. How could I not be happy?

Now for today, we will do something a bit different. We are going to do rerates. I saw enough demand here that I feel that it is worthwhile. However, much like after E3 last year, you will get some imput. Below I am going to post all the scores as of now (front page will be updated with them soon don't worry boos). Who are the characters that we overrated and underrated the most. Order the top three for each. First place counts as two votes, each other counts as one. Keep in mind the reasonings for each.

For my money, here are the overrated ones.

3. Celica

This spot was tougher for me. It was between Edelgard, Celica, and Layton, but I chose Celica. This is mainly just because I feel not confident in the character at all. Her time has passed, she is old news, while I could see Edelgard getting in outside the pass if they do promo characters. Also Layton is overrated but not top 3 overrated.

2. Steve

Well, Banjo hurt his chances a lot. Steve was always someone more passively expected and seen as likely rather than wanted. With another Microsoft character in the pass, Steve needs a season 2 or he is toast. As such, he should probably go down a good bit. From being seen as our most likely

1. Bandana Dee

This is sad, since Dee is one of the few first party characters left that I still think has a chance. But from what we have seen so far, the pass is shaping up to be primarily third party. Maybe if he gets in outside the pass or a season 2 he might have a better shot in my eyes, but I am not confident in Dee at all. At least not to the extent of him being the second most likely character we have rated.

Now for the Underrated ones.

3. Doomguy

Third place here was really hard. This is primarily because there is only a handful of characters I even consider likely enough to consider IMO. As such, I went with the one I feel is the most off, which was between Doomguy and Reimu. I went with Doomguy since I feel he has a solid shot right now.

2. Sans

Yeah, times change. The rating for sans was around 4% average chance. Undertale rep was ~30%. However, Sans benefits a lot from the current field. He is a popular character from a popular game Nintendo cares a lot about (Undertale and Deltarune get a lot of direct time). He is popular in Japan too. I could see him needing a big increase. The only reason he is not number one is how confident I am in Number 1.

1. LEON S. KENNEDY/JILL Valentine

I mainly tied them since we rated them together the first time. But this mainly goes for Leon. Leon , or at least Resident Evil, in my opinion is the single most likely character for Smash Ultimate DLC. Resident Evil is a huge deal. Nintendo made such a scene about us getting Resident Evil ports. It is the biggest japanese franchise that is not in Smash. RE2 remake was a big success and was known during planning. I am confident in Leon. If I rated Leon today, I would give him around a 70% Chance at worst, if only because other Resi characters exist.

Here are all the scores. I also debated pruning Tails since his Mii Costume exists but I want opinions. Does Tails Mii Costume deconfirm?

Spoiler

Melmetal
11.48% Chance, 23.15% Want

Edelgard
25.85% Chance, 25.66% Want

Dixie Kong
22.57% Chance, 67.42% Want

Bandanna Dee
55.58% Chance, 82.48% Want

Rex
5.95% Chance, 38.08% Want

Geno
18.10% Chance, 43.03% Want

Rayman
36.86% Chance, 59.88% Want

Steve
55.69% Chance, 23.89% Want

Sora
15.87% Chance, 38.64% Want

Sans
3.85% Chance, 29.09% Want

Master Hand
33.75% Chance, 61.88% Want

Shantae
7.17% Chance, 48.96% Want

Crash Bandicoot (old rating, rerated)
27.36% Chance, 57.50% Want

Doomguy
10.89% Chance, 37.78% Want

Travis Touchdown
12.88% Chance, 43.00% Want

Dovahkiin
15.96% Chance, 38.47% Want

Celica
23.90% Chance, 45.88% Want

Lycanroc
11.07% Chance, 40.51% Want

Chibi-Robo
4.52% Chance, 63.59% Want

Lip
3.92% Chance, 48.94% Want

Ray
0.88% Chance, 53.83% Want

Saki Amamiya
2.00% Chance, 55.25% Want

Paper Mario
8.31% Chance, 50.16% Want

Toad
2.59% Chance, 42.13% Want

Captain Toad
16.14% Chance, 56.14% Want

Professor Layton
32.96% Chance, 67.19% Want

Phoenix Wright
31.91% Chance, 61.84% Want

Jibanyan
16.97% Chance, 15.00% Want

Lloyd Irving
50.92% Chance, 53.37% Want

Heihachi Mishima
7.82% Chance, 24.82% Want

Leon S. Kennedy
34.64% Chance, 53.70% Want

Jill Valentine
20.57% Chance, 49.38% Want

Alternate costumes as DLC
4.78% Chance, 56.63% Want

Barbara the Bat
2.13% Chance, 29.80% Want

The Prince
6.44% Chance, 45.28% Want

Xurkitree
0.97% Chance, 26.35% Want

Master Chief
4.33% Chance, 31.17% Want

Karate Joe
9.94% Chance, 47.97% Want

Chorus Kids
10.69% Chance, 54.50% Want

2B
21.72% Chance, 46.18% Want

Merric
0.25% Chance, 9.18% Want

Quote
8.54% Chance, 52.92% Want

Katalina
1.93% Chance, 5.48% Want

Tails
9.52% Chance, 56.93% Want

Elma
20.41% Chance, 48.84% Want

Echo Fighters as DLC
26.00% Chance, 80.67% Want

DeMille
0.57% Chance, 26.11% Want

Micaiah
2.77% Chance, 39.08% Want

Arle Nadja
11.72% Chance, 34.82% Want

Rhythm Girl
5.02% Chance, 37.25% Want

All DLC will be third-party
65.95% Chance, 39.42% Want

Hollow Knight
5.87% Chance, 41.67% Want

Mach Rider
2.93% Chance, 57.92% Want

Nero Claudius
0.70% Chance, 13.71% Want

Reimu Hakurei
18.14% Chance, 53.85% Want

Reaper
0.87% Chance, 15.78% Want

Grovyle
1.29% Chance, 25.50% Want

Gen 8 Pokémon
10.49% Chance, 16.16% Want

More DLC
50.57% Chance, 88.76% Want

Stages outside the Fighter Pass
43.27% Chance, 85.96% Want

Sephiroth
13.45% Chance, 36.04% Want

SNK rep
25.11% Chance, 58.31% Want

Ravio
1.65% Chance, 40.06% Want

Dark Matter
0.61% Chance, 31.76% Want

Andy
1.48% Chance, 59.96% Want

Ezio Auditore da Firenze
22.18% Chance, 42.44% Want

Professor Hector
0.42% Chance, 26.46% Want

Shy Guy
1.74% Chance, 34.60% Want

Arthas Menethil
0.91% Chance, 17.11% Want

100 characters
7.16% Chance, 71.14% Want

Dante
0.08% Chance, 54.79% Want

Monster Hunter
31.06% Chance, 46.21% Want

Maxwell
5.50% Chance, 63.50% Want

Cranky Kong
4.60% Chance, 53.89% Want

Magikarp
0.90% Chance, 17.46% Want

Ryota Hayami
0.66% Chance, 36.54% Want

Style Savvy rep
3.13% Chance, 44.08% Want

Hat Kid
0.17% Chance, 55.00% Want

Sly Cooper
1.04% Chance, 38.57% Want

Q*Bert
1.00% Chance, 31.64% Want

World of Light expansion
25.79% Chance, 55.10% Want

Tracer
19.15% Chance, 36.68% Want

Poochy
10.24% Chance, 30.55% Want

Kat & Ana
5.46% Chance, 40.45% Want

Bomberman
9.94% Chance, 64.25% Want

Krystal
3.28% Chance, 38.33% Want

Isaac
10.54% Chance, 59.42% Want

Lyn
5.22% Chance, 45.57% Want

Waluigi
14.81% Chance, 69.17% Want

Shovel Knight
5.15% Chance, 53.21% Want

Takamaru
1.41% Chance, 39.92% Want

Skull Kid
6.01% Chance, 63.33% Want

Shadow
13.05% Chance, 50.55% Want

Spring Man
9.92% Chance, 54.23% Want

Midna
2.71% Chance, 44.15% Want

Black Knight
1.83% Chance, 40.00% Want

Ashley
6.84% Chance, 53.00% Want

Vaati
6.03% Chance, 48.13% Want

Ryu Hayabusa
46.95% Chance, 66.50% Want

Porky Minch
10.45% Chance, 61.24% Want

Yuri Lowell
17.25% Chance, 32.06% Want

Boss Rush
35.71% Chance, 78.13% Want

Bonkers
0.43% Chance, 5.33% Want

Undertale rep
31.68% Chance, 61.33% Want

Brash the Bear
A perfect 0.00% for Chance, 5.56% Want

Lora
5.01% Chance, 45.63% Want

Fire Emblem Three Houses rep
14.81% Chance, 26.68% Want

Black Mage
9.77% Chance, 44.36% Want

Metal Sonic
3.34% Chance, 37.62% Want

Tetromino
3.72% Chance, 31.35% Want

Nathan Drake
0.19% Chance, 42.27% Want

Palico
8.18% Chance, 16.88% Want

Impa
4.60% Chance, 27.32% Want

Monokuma
15.62% Chance, 50.77% Want

Amy Rose
4.12% Chance, 32.00% Want

Crash Bandicoot
51.80% Chance, 77.95% Want

Frisk
15.59% Chance, 43.57% Want

Creeper
3.07% Chance, 10.39% Want

Freddi Fish and Luther
8.33% Chance, 19.62% Want

Top 3 Most Overrated and Underrated. Order them, explain them. Depending on who gets in, I will have a brief fixed schedule.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Double posting but this is a reminder to keep today civil. Days like this can make feelings run high, so I would recommend staying civil.

 

[Namasura]

Underrated/Overrated in terms of chance?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Underrated/Overrated in terms of chance?

Yes.

 

[ZealousGamer]

An opinion isn't an opinion when it goes against reality.

OK. Fine. The reality is you were wrong. I was going to let it be. But you just had to go back. He is a multi-platform character. There were better and more connected characters. That is a fact.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Too high

3. Tracer
Again, a character who has nothing to do with Nintendo. Overwatch still hasn't come to Nintendo Switch so I don't see why she would've been chosen last year and I'm pretty sure the people at Blizzard said they would prefer Diablo anyway. She's another one of those characters who got overestimated after Joker.

2. 2B
DQ has officially taken that 2nd Square spot and I recall her having been deconfirmed by her developers already. Ignoring that, I never thought 2B was likely, even after Joker. She just simply has zero ties to Nintendo. Even Persona has the excuse of being a spinoff series of SMT. People jumped the gun after the game awards and flocked to her, thinking characters are no longer required any Nintendo presence when it likely isn't that simple.

1. Celica
Even back when we rated her I thought she was already done for. I didn't see why they would repeat history with FE's infamy in Smash, especially for her, since a new FE on the hot new Nintendo system was already long on the horizon. Never saw why they'd go for advertising a remake on a handheld which was losing steam.


Too low

3. Dragonborn
I kinda struggled to find a suiting character for this spot but I noticed how people talk about the Doomguy way more than Dragonborn, even though Skyrim is a way bigger deal in Japan. Wasn't that game a huge deal earlier this decade, like the most popular openword around that time?

2. Sans
Now this has to be one of the characters who benefitted most from Joker as Third-parties no longer need to be from long running ,iconic series to take a spot on the roster. Undertale and Deltarune have also become huge in both the east and west and Sans as a character has become very loved and popular.

1. Leon
RE is currently the biggest Japanese franchise not yet in Smash and RE4 has become one of the most popular games of it's era. Not to mention Joker has basically negated the gun issue.

Bandana Dee x5

 

[Sari]

Underrated chances (chance score too low)

• Jill (Resident Evil): She's one of the most iconic faces of Capcom's biggest franchises. I feel like Resident Evil in Smash is very likely and I think Jill poses serious competition for Leon if it were to ever happen.
• Doomguy (Doom): Doom is one of the most iconic games of all time and the series has an incredibly strong history with Nintendo. They could definitely work around his violence without it hampering the character too much.
• Sans (Undertale): Regardless of your thoughts on Undertale and its fanbase, Sans is incredibly well-known throughout the gaming community. He's practically the face of Undertale which is why I find it weird that his score was much lower than Frisk's.

Honorable mentions: Jibanyan, Ezio

----------

Overrated chances (chance score too high)

Not gonna count Freddi Fish's day since that was a joke day and the only reason his score is so high is because of one user.

• Steve (Minecraft): I'll be perfectly honest and say that I thought Steve was inevitable; I even gave him a 75% chance score many months ago. Over time though I've started to think less and less of this happening and considering recent events I don't expect a Minecraft character. Maybe a mii costume to coincide with Banjo's release but that's it.
• Celica (Fire Emblem): As someone who really wants Celica in Smash (she's my most wanted first party atm) her chance score is really high. Even when taking into account that this was before the Joker reveal, I don't see why Nintendo would prioritize promoting a nearly 2 year old remake (at the time of the rating) when they have Heroes and Three Houses to choose from. This is all without mentioning that Sakurai is aware of Fire Emblem fatigue.
• Captain Toad (Mario): In a period where we all thought the roster would be third-party, this score was just really high. Considering what's been said in the past about this wave of DLC following the Joker reveal, first parties don't seem likely let alone another Mario character.

Honorable mentions: Professor Layton, Ryu Hayabusa

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[afrozenaer0]

Overrated:

3. Steve

I think a Minecraft stage would be cool, but that's about it. Yeah no doubt Minecraft is really popular and iconic, but I'm not sure if that applies to Steve himself. Microsoft just got Banjo anyway so I'm not sure how likely it is that they would get another rep to begin with.

2. Geno

I would love to see him get put in, and I love Super Mario RPG, but I think if it was going to happen It would have already happened by now. It'll be interesting to see if he has a costume that comes with The Hero. Not only would Square get a third rep when they just got one, but Geno does already have a spirit as well and, in my opinion, spirits deconfirm fighters.

1. Bandana Dee

Another character I would be happy with seeing in the game, but at the end of the day he is just a waddle dee with a bandana. I love playing him in Kirby games, but I don't think just because he is consistently put with the main three characters will be enough for him to get a spot. Again, if he got in though I would definitely be happy.


Underrated:

3. Heihachi

I recall reading somewhere that he was almost in Smash 4, and considering the amount of work Namco is putting into this game I can definitely see them taking one of the fighter pass slots, and he is definitely one of Namco's more iconic characters.

2. Jill / a RE character

Nintendo sure spent a lot of time showing old RE games in the direct did they? Not only would Jill be another female character and arguably the most popular RE protagonist, but the Spencer Estate Foyer would be such a cool stage to fight on. Resident Evil is very popular too especially with how well RE2 remake and RE7 sold recently, so I'm sure Nintendo would be confident that she would sell well.

1. Porky Minch

Obviously I'm a little biased here, but I am surprised not more people are talking about him. Porky does not have a spirit or any spirits referencing him in Ultimate after years of representation in smash (Boss fight, New Pork City, flying in the helicopter on Fourside, his house in the background in Onett, trophies, stickers, and music). The absolutely safe capsule does not count because in Mother 3 there are two sprites for it, one where he is in the capsule and one where it is empty. Ultimate uses the empty sprite as the capsule's spirit so Porky is not inside as a joke or whatever. Why would they leave him out now when Ness's dad is a spirit as a telephone and a bug that is in Earthbound for 10 minutes both have spirits? Porky was intentionally excluded for a reason, and he WILL be coming to Ultimate. The question is if it's as a spirit or as a character.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Overrated

1. Heihachi: Nothing really changed. Trying to get the 3D gameplay to properly transfer over to Smash is very difficult. The few 2D games he was a guest in weren't trying to transfer over those mechanics. Likewise, the Mii Costume theory is being taken too seriously.

2. Crash. He's a great character, but that doesn't mean he's some guarantee. Likewise, being a notable platforming character doesn't guarantee anything. He was more recent with games than Banjo, yet see who got in. There's more to it than being an icon.

3. Resident Evil. It has a reasonable chance, but it's being overestimated. There's no real reason to believe in the Mii Costume theory. It's absolutely a deserving franchise, but DLC is never that simple.

Underated

1. Sans. He's the mascot. He's pretty much the biggest Indie not already in at this point. He's more likely than Frisk too, as the whole point of the main character is being an outright pacifist. Toby Fox actually cares about characterization, to the point of Undertale's pseudo-sequel treating it as a completely different universe, letting people somewhat think of their own stuff, but still not setting a tone where violence is good.

2. Sora. Mainly cause people still think he's owned by Square. Nothing really changed other than the company saying he isn't in... at best. He is vastly different as a fighter from others, and while the menu mechanic is similar to Hero, he's an entirely aerial fighter, to the point of doing combos in the air very often. Never mind the different spell set.

3. Doom Slayer. While I'd put Master Chief here to some degree, this one is taken even less as likely. There's this silly idea they won't put violent characters in when we already have someone like Ridley who is extremely violent in Smash(and worse in the trailer too). There's no reason to believe they'd spell out BFG(so the idea there's swearing issues is ridiculous). Likewise, the weapons are still vastly usable without any real censorship. I mean, you take away blood and gore and... you still are just as violent, it's just done a little more kid-friendly. Chief is a bit more censored overall to some degree, which is why I didn't list him here(also him being disconfirmed by Frank and 343 combined plays a role).

 

[3DSNinja]

Mii costumes don’t deconfirm. Nuff said.
Most Overrated
3. Sword and Shield rep: I will get into this later, but we already have a promo rep in Luminary. And honestly even without that this was VERY unlikely with Incineroar.
2. Leon S. Kennedy/Jill Valentine: Honestly, Resident Evil representation I think is VERY unlikely. Primarily due to the fact that Capcom has other characters that are far more likely.
1. Fire Emblem Three Houses: Yeah this won’t happen. One, Sakurai was tired of the fire emblem characters in Sm4sh and we have one more. Two, because we already have a promo char in Luminary. And finally, because honestly first party aside from one boi are unlikely. Thank God that this **** won’t touch Ultimate.
Most Underrated
3. The Knight: Honestly considering Nintendo chose, The Knight IMO is the best bet for a indie. It sold incredibly well, especially on Switch, currently he is doing surprisingly well in popularity, and he has really interesting moveset potential. Plus, Silksong.
2. Phoenix Wright: Now this is the Capcom rep. Ace Attorney is (i believe) Nintendo exclusive. That already makes him very obvious. He also has a moveset from Ultimate MvC 3 and popularity. Also no one would see him coming. Like...
1. Bandana Dee: Easily the most likely first party. I think a first party is guaranteed for this reason. It is the one thing everyone thinks won’t happen. And Bandana Dee can give us music, stages, and spirits from an unrepresented period in Nintendo hisTory. He is also a fan favorite. I honestly think he is guaranteed.
Nominations: Blaze x2, Specter Knight x3

 

[YoshiandToad]

Overrated:

Waluigi: With third parties being prioritised and a Mario newcomer already having arrived via DLC, it's weird that any Mario character be high...but Waluigi is also a gameplay element with the assist trophy. How he got double digits is beyond me.

Isaac: See Waluigi minus the series having a DLC character already.

Shadow: Once again, assist trophy. Frankly any Assist Trophy getting double digits or even high single digits seems bizarre to me. Also Sega have already got a DLC character with Joker.

Underrated:

Jill Valentine: With Leon being as high as he is, I find Jill's ranking to be a bit low. They should be a little more equal even if Resi 4 is the one everyone seems to adore. Jill's still one of the lead protagonists and the star of at least three games. I do think Resident Evil is the most likely Capcom option, mostly because it's such a huge series.

Ezio: Slightly. Assassins Creed is huge and whilst I'd much prefer Rayman, I could easily see Ezio edging him out due to it's modern day popularity.

Heihachi: Not really a fan of Tekken, but comparing Lloyd and Heihachi's scores is kind of bananas. Tekken's far bigger than Heihachi's score gives credit to, and I don't think Tales is that much of a shoo-in that it should be that one sided.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I'm gonna abstain, but I wanted to share my thoughts on a couple of characters regarding my ratings for them and whatever:

Underrated: Sans - I believe I underrated him as well as Papyrus, as they're basically the faces of Undertale, though I guess Sans is more of a face (I guess Flowey, too). I gave Frisk a higher rating due to my mind changing based on another user's post, and me realizing how big of a deal Undertale seems to be. I really like the game, and I knew it was very popular, but I wasn't sure exactly how popular it really was.

However, since Nintendo puts Undertale and Deltarune in their main Directs instead of their Nindies Directs, Japan seems to like Undertale if not love, and Sans is known by even people who haven't even played the game and probably haven't seen gameplay, either, I think Undertale has a good shot at getting a character, which would very likely be Sans if not both him and his brother. This is also including the fact that Nintendo seems to actually be going for "generally unexpected" characters; even people who wanted Joker, Dragon Quest, and Banjo-Kazooie didn't expect them at all until leaks or datamines, and even with the B-K leak there were fans shaking in their boots afraid that it wasn't going to happen, me feeling the same way after the DQ reveal (which I think was cool but y'know) but still having hopes for a second reveal (yay).

Overrated: Steve - At the time, I thought he was more-likely than Banjo-Kazooie, even if I wanted them equally as much; I thought Nintendo may want more well-known franchises and stuff, plus Minecraft is very, very popular. B-K is popular as well, but Minecraft is like a huge giant. I knew Nintendo wasn't cynical and only focused on sales and stuff, but I thought they might decide on Minecraft due to it not only having large sales, but a massive fanbase and generally nice community with a lot of people wanting Steve in Smash, so y'know.

Not regarding my ratings but more thoughts: I hope Steve fans will give a greater push for next game, though, as I'm not expecting anymore Microsoft characters, even if it could still happen; it just doesn't seem likely. I hope the 4chan trolls and their deformed Steve imposter will go away; I originally thought the render was ugly but somewhat funny...and while I still think it's sort-of funny on its own, I'm starting to dislike it more than stay neutral on it due to how it's been used, plus I wish the real Steve would be used alongside B-K and whoever else in those gifs and images of them going against 4chan Steve.

As for Sans, I'd really like for him to be playable as well. I think I may like it even more if him and Papyrus were together, though I'd see it more as the player being Papyrus while Sans stands off to the side like Pokemon Trainer, but will help Papyrus with attacks and his Final Smash. I wouldn't mind if Sans was alone, though.


-Also, I believe Porky and other Mother characters may be underrated as well, though admittedly I don't see them having a huge chance either. Porky's case just seems...suspicious, though I may just be biased.

 

[Jomosensual]

Most Underrated

3. Lloyd Irving - He's one of my last 2 DLC predictions now after both of the new characters at E3 fit Mii Costume theory. Around 50 percent is still pretty good given we didn't have this theory when he was up. Right now I'd personally boost him up to about 70 percent or so. Feels really good we get another Namco rep even if this theory gets disproved down the line. With Heihachi being in one of Pac-Mans taunts I feel like Lloyd is the clear front runner from a Namco rep if we are getting another one.

2. Jill/ Leon
Going for a tie here because I see their chances to be basically equal. Capcom rep, so that helps quite a bit if you sub to costume theory. Also would feel like legitimate big deals in the same way getting Banjo or Joker did and fits the unexpected but plausible mold that Joker also fits. Neither cracked 40 percent, which feels a little surprising. Right now I'd have them around 60 or 65 with a rerate

1. Phoenix Wright
He finished with only a 31 percent chance score last time, which feels low even for his first rating. Ace Attorney is a long running and popular series from Capcom that doesn't come with the issues my other 2 most underrated do, which would be Sakurai shooting down a lot of Namco reps in an interview at one point and Jill/Leon not having a ton of hype behind them coming in. Phoenix might not have been the most requested but I know he had some hype coming in and it's felt relatively the same since. Since the last rating I played the first 2 AA games and started the 3rd and think he would be a great fit for the game and is one of my most wanted now. I'd bump him up to around a 75 now, as I think he's one of the most likely Capcom characters to be selected

HMs: Hollow Knight, All 3rd Party DLC

Most Overrated

3. Monster Hunter
I really don't understand this one. 31 percent sounds way too high for a character who had stuff from its game in the base roster but not the character itself. I really think that if Monster Hunter or any other creature was getting in the game they would have been revealed with Rathalos. I think the rating probably belongs somewhere under 10% now between what I mentioned above and characters like Phoenix, the Resident Evil duo

2. Ryu Hayabusa
What was his case again? Feel like there was 0 buzz around him until his name started popping up in a ton of leaks, all of which turned out to be fake. The character itself feels like a very safe, hum-ho, and boring pick for the DLC and and that's been the opposite of the 3 characters so far(Personal note here, I don't find Hero to be that exciting but DQ's popularity in Japan makes them fit the bill). And to my knowladge Tecmo has no ties to Smash to get a character in. I would personally move him from around 50 percent to about a 15.

1. Bandana Dee
Two major points kill him for me, which are that he's a spirit and a 1st party character. We weren't sure about either of them eliminating characters when Dee was rated so I can understand the 55% rating then, but now that both are probably true I'd cut him down to about a 5 or lower at best. I'm not sure what they could put on the DLC spirit board for him and the fact we still haven't had any spirit upgrades yet tells me that for at least this pass, it's done.

HMs
Steve, Rayman, All the Assist Trophies


Noms
Ellie x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

One note about Heihachi, they retired the character after his VA passed.

 

[jamesster445]

Overrated
Lloyd Iirving- Lloyd isn't the most popular character in the Tales series (that's Yuri). And the Tales series doesn't hold the same majesty that Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest hold.

Phoenix Wright- While i wont say Ace Attorney is a niche series, it's by no means amongst Capcoms best. I'd also argue Capcom has other characters that are bigger and more influential than Phoenix.

Celica- She is not the main character of her game And her niche of being a magic swordsman is already occupied by Robin.

HM goes to Skull Kid because of chairs.

Underated
Heihachi- Tekken was the best selling fighting game series, yes it outsold even Smash (as of Ultimate's release, this is no longer the case). It is easily one of Namco's biggest franchises. The only thing holding Heihachi back is that the character is dead and tragically so did his seiyu.

Leon Kennedy - Resident Evil is Capcoms most profitable series and created the entire horror genre of games. Leon is pretty much the Cloud of his series seeing as he's the protagonist of RE2 and RE4, two of most widely agreed pinnacles of the series.

Porky- Why does he not have a spirit? He would also be a heavyweight villain which is a niche that's generally has been welcome in Ultimate.

Nominations- Euden (Dragalia Lost)

 

[Calamitas]

Oh, filling up three characters is gonna be tough for this.

Most Underrated

1. Elma.
   I mean, she's my most wanted, so obviously I'll say that. But still, if anyone's willing to listen to the arguments for her, I'd suggest this video.
2. Isaac.
   The series did get a lot of attention in terms of Spirits and Assist Trophy presentation for something that doesn't even have a playable fighter. I just highly doubt that Sakurai and his team are blind to all the support.
3. Undertale Rep
   I originally wanted to put "Spirits in general" here, before I realized that today was actually about past ratings. So, Undertale it is - it's iconic, it's popular in Japan, and it's ongoing. That's all it needs, if you ask me.

Most Overrated

1. Rex.
   I'll confess that this is largely because the guy's probably my most hated video games character in existance. But even so, with how Sakurai downright presented his Mii costume as an apology and still included quite a bit of content from 2, it's just really not happening. Any percent is too high for him.
2. Porky.
   I just find most arguments in his favour to be very shallow. I mean, it being the year of the pig? Really? That's supposed to be an argument in his favour?
3. Sylux.
   Similar to the above. People just latched onto him because he doesn't have a Spirit, and because Metroid Prime 4 is coming up. And we all know how the former is currently going. . .

 

[Deleted member]

One note about Heihachi, they retired the character after his VA passed.

Dunno mate, Heihachi has had 4 VA already and sadly its also not the first to die.

 

[StormC]

Underated
Heihachi- Tekken is the best selling fighting game series period (yes it outsells even Smash)

Not to take away from your point, but that's no longer true as of Ultimate.

 

[3DSNinja]

Dunno mate, Heihachi has had 4 VA already and sadly its also not the first to die.

The creators of Tekken say that the character is done, so the character is done.
He could have been picked BEFORE the VA died tho so maybe, but probably not.

 

[Nemuresu]

Well, considering we're just talking about characters and not everything we've rated, here's my thoughts:

Most Overrated:

Steve: Yeah, a character I personally saw happening is here. But what can I say, Joker was chosen out of Sakurai's own preferences, Hero definitely wasn't chosen because of popularity, and the idea of characters that'd surprise people honestly made me think that we wouldn't see any fan favourites. Now, we know the only thing that matters is for the character to have some sort of fame going for them (Joker coming from an award-winning game, Hero being from an historically acclaimed series and Banjo being a heavily-requested character for ages).

Bandana Dee: I know this is a pre-Joker character, and like most of them, would probably be filled with zeroes today (I'm gonna talk more about this later). But even if we take that out, the idea had not too much basis, since everyone then thought the characters would be promotional, which Dee wasn't exactly the most obvious pick for such.

Rayman: From the very start, I wasn't exactly hopeful on him. Mainly because the guy has been shafted twice in a row, and I just can't bring myself to be more optimistic with him. Now, it's still much of the same. This DLC has shown us that there's a clear preference from Sakurai (and by extension, Nintendo) to bring franchises that aren't already in Smash, and unless the next two characters break that ideology, I'm not going to change my expectations.

On a smaller note, I do want to say that I would've included the "more DLC" concept and the Fire Emblem characters. The former because of what Sakurai said about DLC in his book, but since it's a concept, it probably doesn't count; and the latter because of what I already said about Rayman, but I omitted it since the last rating on the Three Houses rep wasn't as positive as it was with Edelgard or Celica. And even if it doesn't have much to do with the characters themselves, I do not believe the 4chan "leak" with Sylux and Edelgard in, it just feels like it was latching on to different conceptions people had about Smash's DLC (Vergeben's leak on Square, a Microsoft character being requested, the idea that there has to be a new Fire Emblem character no matter what, and the general concept of promotional characters).

Most Underrated:

Doomguy: He was basically the prime victim of pre-Joker speculation, and if anyone could benefit from a re-rate nowadays would be him. He's not any more violent than any of the M-rated characters that we already have in the game, new franchises are more likely than ever and Banjo has proven to everyone that western characters aren't out of the picture.

Ezio: While not under the same issues as Doomguy, I do have to say that Assassin's Creed does feel a little underestimated as far as pedigree and popularity goes. Rayman not being very likely also helps the franchise a bit more.

Jill: Now, Banjo definitely shows that fan-favourites aren't out of the question, but even then, I have to say she isn't any less likely than Leon just because of that. She's still one of Resident Evil's mascots and one of the main protagonists of the first game, that should be enough merit for her to be a candidate for Smash.

And regarding the idea about re-ratings, I feel like only third-party characters would benefit from them. As I said before, there were different conceptions from people before Joker happened. And now that he's in, that we only got even more guests, and all the interviews and insights from Reggie, Sakurai and others; I think it's fair to assume most people aren't going to see Nintendo characters as very likely.

Nominations: Morrigan x5

 

[jamesster445]

Not to take away from your point, but that's no longer true as of Ultimate.

Just checked. You right I'll edit my post.

 

[Deleted member]

About overrated and underrated picks, I wont participate aside from giving my 2 cents on ideas rather than characters because I simply believe its pretty much anyone's gsme now.

Overrated

• The two remaining picks come from the west

I think that the fact that BK is so far the only character that got in means that more than likely there might be logistics issues that make more difficult to get picks from the west. I wouldn't count that both of the remaining characters come from Western companies.

• No western picks

While I think logistics might affect Western picks, they are not impossible and while I don't see us getting 2 western characters in the remaining spots I could see potentially getting one. There are characters that are popular WW that come from both sides of the globe.

• Both of the remaining characters being popular within the fandom

I see that there could be a fan favorite thrown in there but I really doubt both are going to be catering to a specific public but rather both could be selected to broaden the fanbase.

Underrated

• Characters with big legacy and global presence

This is depending on how Nintendo decides to focus the rest of the DLC, but I could easily see Nintendo selecting characters that have a more global presence like Leon or Jill from RE, Dovahkin from Skyrim, and Chosen Undead or Solaire from Dark Souls.

• Companies already represented getting another pick

I simply dont think there will be any issue with any company already being represented getting more characters especially considering that companies like Capcom, SE, MS and Bamco possess a lot of popular franchises.

• Smaller franchises

I dont think that size would matter more than what the new characters can bring to the game and the public with them. There are a few genres like Survival Horror, Puzzle, FPS, VN that have popular characters and could bring new public into the game.

The creators of Tekken say that the character is done, so the character is done.
He could have been picked BEFORE the VA died tho so maybe, but probably not.

For real? First time I heard about this.

 

[Troykv]

What a weird moment we're; the (actual) leaks pretty much ended, and we're in the dark, just with data to imagine what can happen in the future.

Overrated:

1.- Celica: In hindsight, this should have made sense the moment they decided to avoid giving us a (New) Fire Emblem Character at release date; the bigger priorities seems to be Edelgard or Byleth now. Celica now pretty much exists in the same limbo characters like Micaiah exists, they aren't impossible, but it requires a bit more that just timing to be in Smash.

2.- Steve: Still a top priority to consider (at least until the Microsoft/Rare content it's reveal in October?), but it lost that requeriment that made him so incredible likely, now he has to compete in even odds with the other Third Parties.

3.- Geno: Geno seems to be legit dead this time, DQ was such an big deal anyway, so it was kind of expected.

Underrated:

1.- Phoenix Wright: Banjo's inclusion benefited Phoenix Wright in ways I find quite funny, it basically proven that smaller franchises from companies that already have games and pretty popular picks are Smash Ballot Picks are actually considered legitimally. and that it's quite incredible.

2.- Leon Kennedy: Similar to Phoenix Wright, except changing "popular small franchise with a lot of follow" to "iconic series"

3.- Doomguy: Choosing Western Characters it's actually a legit thing now, and from the characters that were voted, this is probably the one with the lowest score in relationship with their own legacy power.

____

Nominations:

Micaiah x5

(I hope Celica and Micaiah get similar scores)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Does Tails Mii Costume deconfirm?

I think it 100% disconfirms unless there's a second FP. Same as Rex, really.

OK. Fine. The reality is you were wrong. I was going to let it be. But you just had to go back. He is a multi-platform character. There were better and more connected characters. That is a fact.

Name one.

Overrated:

Waluigi: With third parties being prioritised and a Mario newcomer already having arrived via DLC, it's weird that any Mario character be high...but Waluigi is also a gameplay element with the assist trophy. How he got double digits is beyond me.

Isaac: See Waluigi minus the series having a DLC character already.

Shadow: Once again, assist trophy. Frankly any Assist Trophy getting double digits or even high single digits seems bizarre to me. Also Sega have already got a DLC character with Joker.

Underrated:

Jill Valentine: With Leon being as high as he is, I find Jill's ranking to be a bit low. They should be a little more equal even if Resi 4 is the one everyone seems to adore. Jill's still one of the lead protagonists and the star of at least three games. I do think Resident Evil is the most likely Capcom option, mostly because it's such a huge series.

Ezio: Slightly. Assassins Creed is huge and whilst I'd much prefer Rayman, I could easily see Ezio edging him out due to it's modern day popularity.

Heihachi: Not really a fan of Tekken, but comparing Lloyd and Heihachi's scores is kind of bananas. Tekken's far bigger than Heihachi's score gives credit to, and I don't think Tales is that much of a shoo-in that it should be that one sided.

The Assist Trophies were rated under the hypothesis that ATs are upgraded. I don't think, given that basis, that they're overrated.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Shantae, Lloyd Irving, Viewtiful Joe, Elma, & Conker. Enough for you?

 

[Deleted member]

Underrated:

3. Three Houses and Expensive Mortgages

I don't have much to say on this, but I still find a 3 Houses character a possibility. While the Smash roster has a lot of Fire Emblem characters in Smash already, it wouldn't be surprising if Nintendo chose Byleth to be DLC since even 3 Houses looks to have enough content to fill up the DLC spirit board and music.

2. Doom Guy/Marine/Slayer/Thing

There's an interesting case to be made for Doom in Smash. The idea that Nintendo's looking to bring a lot of different audiences to Smash would certainly fit with bringing someone like Doom Slayer to Smash as Doom is mainly targeted to a much more mature and hardcore audience.

1. The Knight

Take what I said about the different audiences thing, and it applies to Hollow Knight as well. Indie Games are very important to the eShop, and with Hollow Knight being 1 of the bigger indie games on the Switch, there isn't a better way to represent the Indies than having 1 of the more critically acclaimed Indie title in Smash.

Overrated:

3. Hunter of Monsters, the Monster Hunter

A lot of people seem to want him/her in the game, but I don't really see it happening. As we all know, Monster Hunter is already repped by Rathalos and for good reason. The Monster Hunter series is as the name implies: hunting monsters. All the time you're fighting a lot of creatures whether if they're a regular herbivore or an elder dragon, but you're hardly fighting against each other for anything as the game is a cooperative effort. Of course, there is a Monster Hunter in MvCI, but even then, an Hunter was also outright rejected by the development team for MvC 3. It just might be the case that even they don't feel that a Hunter would make a good fit for Smash, and Rathalos perfectly exemplifies their view of what the series is all about: hunting monsters.

2. Stevers Creepers it's Steve

Everyone had this mindset about Steve that he was a potential lock for DLC as Minecraft was 1 of the highest grossing games of all time and a few leakers backing up Smash Bros x Minecraft. We even had a few people shoot down what some of Mojang's employees said about Steve in Smash because supposedly they didn't have any actual say in the decision. With Banjo-Kazooie being unveiled, any sort of chance Steve has has completely simmered down hard to a lot of people. I for 1 think Sakurai's wording about if he could make a character work would come to play. Even if Steve was considered, Sakurai may have turned down the idea in a similar fashion to Heihachi for being rather difficult to implement to Smash. Some of us might not think the same way, but at the end of the day, it's his decision.

1. Master Hand

I must've not been around to see what people were saying about Master Hand because I do not think Master Hand will be playable outside of WoL. That bit was made to feel like a very special moment in World of Light (even if the entire thing itself got a fairly mixed reception), so to take that and essentially make a new mode out of it (or even a new Fighter) would've diminished it. It might not be my best reasoning, but I still don't see it happening.

Honorable Mentions: Every character that's a Spirit in Ultimate. I would've put all of them on #1 but that'd be too much and quite a cop out since I still don't believe we'll get Fighters that are spirits in the game.

My first Nomination: Soulcalibur's Nightmare Unleashed! x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Shantae,

On PC.

Lloyd Irving,

On PC and Playstation.

Viewtiful Joe,

On Playstation

Elma,

First-party character.

Conker.

On Xbox.

None of those guys (barring Elma) are any more connected to Nintendo than the Heroes at all.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Shantae, Lloyd Irving, Viewtiful Joe, Elma, & Conker. Enough for you?

Shantae has been on PlayStation consoles, PC, phones and Amazon Fire.

Lloyd Irving's debut game was also on the PS2, and has been ported to PC and PS3. The franchise itself has been on every PlayStation console and handheld, PC, smart phones and every Xbox except the first one. The latest title isn't even announced for Switch.

Viewtiful Joe famously broke a promised Nintendo exclusivity by being on the PS2. The sequel was on PS2 as well and there was a PSP exclusive spin-off.

Elma is not a third party character.

Conker is literally ****ing owned by Microsoft. Currently the only way to play Conker is on the Xbox One.

So what were you saying about Dragon Quest being Sony-related? There is currently no mainline title in the DQ series that can't be played on a Nintendo console.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Shantae got her start on Nintendo platforms. For a very long time she was considered an honorary Nintendo character much like Banjo & Kazooie were.

Tales of Symphonia was exclusive to the Gamecube for its first year. More people look at Lloyd being connected to Nintendo than him not.

Viewtiful Joe losing exclusivity wouldn't effect anything. He still got his start on a Nintendo system.

Elma may not be third party but she is a better choice for DLC.

Conker is in the same situation as Banjo & Kazooie; Owned by Microsoft but became famous because of Nintendo.

I'll even add Jibanyan from Yo-kai Watch as well.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Z ZealousGamer this is off topic. Drop it. Giving one final warning on this.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Z ZealousGamer this is off topic. Drop it. Giving one final warning on this.

Agreed.

Edit: I am hoping for Jibanyan to be added.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I will do my picks some time tomorrow, as I'll be busy with a late final and prom, but I just want to bring up the fact that Freddi Fish was heavily overrated due to inflated chance scores. There's no way in hell that an obscure toddler game character should have an 8.33% average score. That beats characters like Hollow Knight, Impa, and Paper Mario. This is the type of character that belongs on the bottom of the pile with Brash the Friggen Bear, and I'm shocked she got more than a 0% average. Rant over. Goodnight

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So one thing I wanted to talk about was the Freddie Fish score. After discussing it with people on the RTC team and seeing this thread, we have decided to void the score.

A large part of this is due to the role that outliers played in this day. This character was only really nominated by one person, and said person gave double 100s. For starters, let me just say 100s are rare in this thread. I gave Ridley a 99.9 pre release since I was confident, but regardless it is a once in a blue moon scenario. With only one one hundred and a ton of zeros, the score is heavily inflated.

Furthermore, participation was lower than normal said day. This made the results even more skewed, and as a result we have a character getting an inflated score.

These rerates are meant for Chance correction, but also to revisit some of the best of RTC. While joke nominations do bring a bit of a different swing to the thread, this one ultimately due to the outlier left a poor taste in everyone’s mouth. Going forward, the score will either be recalculated without the outlier or deemed void due to lack of data.

Apologies to all involved, and keep on trucking.

Since they will not be rerated due to the correction coming , waddledeeonredyoshi you can change your noms here so they are not invalid.

Also RealPokeFan11 this was already being discussed before you posted that and I was drafting a response lol.