Tracer
Chance: 5%
It's a non-zero chance, especially after the big splash that Overwatch made when it initially released. The idea of any shooting game really breaking into mainstream gamer consciousness all by itself - which is to say, not riding on some bigger trend like Fortnite or Apex Legends did, but instigating the trend itself - is damn hard, and there's a lot to praise about how what it did right.
However, some of those qualities were things that turned out to only be good at the time of release. As the years start to pass, Overwatch finds itself struggling to have that same hold that more established shooters like Team Fortress 2 or CounterStrike have, getting tied into the idea that only new characters can sustain a game's longevity. Does the core gameplay loop still hold up on its own, or are there aspects of it that don't really work out in the long run? Of course, these are things that aren't apparent in its launch year - but we're well past that point already, as would any current perspectives looking into the franchise.
Want: 5%
Tracer's a little pushed for my tastes. She was initially heralded as the defacto face of the roster, but it was other characters such as Mercy and Genji who would turn out to be the most popular symbols of Overwatch. I feel like if Sakurai really wanted an Overwatch representative, he'd opt for someone more naturally-associated with the game than the one pushed by Blizzard, a little similarly to how he went for Classic Pac-man over the modern redesign that Namco wanted to show.
Blizzard's also recently come under fire for things more reminiscent of its Activision side, between Diablo mobile, axeing Heroes of the Storm's tournament league, layoffs, and the latest World of Warcraft expansion not being too player-friendly. There's nothing stopping Nintendo from nabbing a Blizzard character, but it'd certainly leave a bad taste in my mouth if it happened while they'd yet to make up for these things.
Nominations
Heavy x5