Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

100 characters

Chance - 0.5% - While it's heavily dependent on how long this game will last, there's a good chance that the number is simply too high to reasonably expect. Given that were only about pushing 20 right now, the amount of time and resources that is would take is rather insane. Remember that Joker isn't overly worked on right now, and it looks like it would take several years just to even get close to 90. I personally don't see it unless this games gets supported for around 5 years.

Want - 75% - I guess it depends on who they give out, but I can't exactly say no to more characters. I will have to pass judgement on who they release, but more characters means more chances.


Dante

Chance - 0% - Was directly disconfirmed. He's not possible.

Want - 25% - Eh, don't care much. I think that there's also a chance of a Bayonetta in 4 scenario happening, and that's something we should avoid.


Predictions

Monster Hunter - 23.13% - I guess their in the running?

Nominations

Vaati X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Uncle Dante

Chance: 0%
Poor Dante. He got disconfirmed three times!

Want: 90%
An iconic video game characters and a badass to boot. DMC is refined action gameplay with style oozing all over, and it basically defines a genre. While everyone was talking about Smash after E3, I was reeling over the announcement of DMCV (can’t believe it’s less than a month away!) Add to that the potential Bayonetta vs. Dante (vs. Ryu Hayabusa?) and even though he’d go directly against my most wanted third party (Phoenix Wright), I’d still love this guy. Not that he has much of a shot unless something DMC pops up on Switch.

Edit: oh wait there was that stupid thing

25 characters for DLC

Chance: 0%
Only way we’ll reach this is if the sequel to Ultimate is also called Ultimate and adds this many more characters while also bringing everyone back. Which is unlikely.

Want: 40%
I hate games with DLC spanning years. I might be more lenient with Smash because of the crossover aspect, but with DLC looking like all third parties it sounds like Smash would become something I don’t want it to, plus not a lot of characters would be hype for me. Not to mention that so many characters increase the odds of ****ty picks like Steve or Saber (or, God forbid, Goku). Hard pass on that last sentence.


Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[BowserKing]

I'll be joining the rating

100 character roster

Chance: 5%

Want: 80%, but the fighters pass would be uneven.

I made calculation of the 100 fighter by listing all the playable characters (includes Echo-Fighters, plus and separately), and adding the first fighter's pass, we would have 82 characters in this game, leaving 18 more fighters for DLC.

Here are my choices for those fighters

The ones who don't get a fighters pass (Echoes)

Dark Bowser, Dixie Kong and Shadow

My fighters choices for fighters pass (Lugia, Fawful, Shantae, Ray-Man, Bandanna Dee, Bio-Rex, Midna, Krystal, Chun Li, Chorus Kids, Knuckles, Viridi, Zero, Adeline and Tom Nook)

This will mostly not be possible, but these characters listed are my choices

Dante's Turn
Chance 10%, at least for now

Want: 50%, abstaining for now, as I'm not to familiar with this franchise

Noms for Creeper (X 2) and Adeline (X 3)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Arthas Menethil pre-Concept: 100 characters/Dante

Concept: World of Light expansion x185
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x180
Q*Bert x179
Sly Cooper x165
Kat & Ana x145
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130


150 - 101

Poochy x126
Tracer x126
Concept: Undertale rep x120
Vaati x120
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Porky Minch x108
Ryu Hayabusa x105
Impa x101


100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x80
Creeper x77
Yuri Lowell x75
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x70
Spyro x67
Frogger x55

50 - 25

Ninten x50
Jin Kazama x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x30
Tetromino x30
Decidueye x29
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Metal Sonic x25
Concept: Square Enix rep x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Morrigan Aensland x15
X (Mega Man) x14
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Palico x5
Concept: DLC challenges x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Concept: Persona Spirits x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Metal Sonic and Square Enix rep reach 25 noms.

Today’s new nominees are Palico, and Concept: DLC Challenges, both with 5 noms.

 

[PeridotGX]

100 characters.

Chance: 5%. It comes down to if there are any more echo fighters. If we get echoes, we might make it to 100. If we don't, no chance. After this pass we aren't going to get 18 more uniques.

Want: 100%. More characters are always better. And with the large amount of new characters, there would likely be at least one I actually want.

Double abstain on Dante. Deconfirm and the usual " I never played DMC" excuse.

X x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Smash Royale:

Chance: 1% - Unless they give us some more DLC passes, I don't see this happening. I don't think we'll get anymore echoes, or if we do, it'll only be a few at most. They could potentially hire another dev-director to do more DLC if Nintendo wants to milk it and Sakurai wants to stop, but eh, I feel like Nintendo isn't going to do that.

Want: 100% - Honestly I don't really care much, but it gives characters more chances to get in, so yeah why not. We could get Skull Kid if they wanted to add assist characters as playable (hey, Ganondorf already watches himself transform into a giant pig-beast before being forced to pummel himself as well), we could get Banjo-Kazooie or Steve/a Creeper if only one or neither get added in the first pass...etc.

Abstain on Dante; I don't really have anything to say other than "it seems he has already been disconfirmed."

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Ninten x2

 

[Jomosensual]

Concept: 100 characters

Chance 2% - We'd need 19 more characters to hit that total, counting Pokemon Trainer as 3 and echos on their own. That's a lot of characters. Who knows, maybe that's their goal by the end of its life cycle, but that's a lot of DLC fighters, stages, and music that need to be added.

Want: 100 - I'd be down for that. At this point we're playing with house money and anyone new we get is better than not getting that character unless it's 4th party. I'd also like to see this game get supported for a very long time since we're likely a long time away from a new Smash game, which will likely feature a major scale back in a lot of characters.

Dante

Chance 0 - He's deconfirmed. His creator said as much. Feel like we could get him in a later pack if it happens but for now it's over for him. Would have given him a fairly high chance score if he wasn't though, because there's a few reasons I think he could have been a viable choice, but for now it seems like he's done.

Want 40 - Just started getting into DMC a little and I think he'd be a really fun character to have in.

Noms:
Porky x5

 

[CureParfait]

Concept- 100 Characters

Chance- 50%
I think there is a chance that 100 characters may happen depending how well Smash Ultimate in the long run. I do think Switch's lifespan is long enough to pull off the 100 character concept.

Want-90%
This concept would help the characters I want in Smash or characters I like at least's chances for a Smash appearance. I also would rather see more than 5 characters coming to DLC too.

Dante

Chance- 0%
Dante's creators pretty much disconfirmed him. So he pretty much doesn't have a chance until Smash 6 maybe.

Want- 80%

Dante is one of the characters that I am pretty interested and seems like a fun character. Also I would really love to hear the music from his series in Smash.

 

[Ridrool64]

Hitting the big 100.

Chance: 25%. Already, not a believer in getting more characters beyond pass 1. Even if we do, that would mean Sakurai and friends continuing to work on Smash for about 5 more years at best, even including Echoes, and at worst it's all uniques from here so it takes even longer. I highly doubt that he intends to not bail given the first opportunity after working on Smash Bros since 2012.

Want: Is Arle in the 100? If she is, 100%, everything's worth it. But let's assume she's not, so 70%. More characters for Smash would be great, buy I think that keeping on this gravy train can only last for so long before people get fatigued with the DLC: any newcomers to the Switch and Smash who want all the characters having to pay over $100 USD more than the game itself, so...

I've been listening to Nero's DMC5 theme and it's fantastic. Mostly because of that dance meme though.

Chance: More or less, 0.001%. Unless it turns out "Surprise! DMC1-4 minus 2 are all getting ports to the Switch to celebrate Dante in Smash!", looks like he won't be filling Smash's dark soul with light. Even so, it still would be mostly baby-steps, since there's lots of competition for him. At least he fits the Reggie statement perfectly.

Want: 21%. Not Arle competition + I've heard of some of the memes and I'm pretty sure Dante is one of those big name icons that people would go wild for. So I gave him a bonus point in addition to the flat score. But I'm not a beat-em-up guy and I don't think I will be anytime soon.

Sly Cooper x 5, keeping him in the top 7 as long as I can.

 

[Flyboy]

Concept: 100 Characters
Chance: 10%
I...don't really see it. They seem tired enough with this DLC pack, and while a season 2 is a possibility I just don't see the game being supported with packs of five for five more years. It seems like a lot of work from a team that doesn't really tend to make more than a few packs for any single game. The game is full of content that, in theory, should sustain said game for a long time anyway, and with the upcoming packs that's already some immediate added longevity.

Want: 80%
On one hand, I love new characters. I like seeing new stages, new playstyles, and new names join the fight. On the other hand, I can't help but be nervous at what characters they'd be getting to fill all those slots. There's one character in particular whose chances shoot up if the slots are expanded and I just don't want to have to deal with the heartache when said character is enough to make me not buy other games they've crossed over into. Sure, I could just...not buy any characters I don't want, and that's valid, but at the same time I'd rather have a bunch of characters I do.

It's tough. I'll take fewer characters with more care put into them, I think.

Dante (Devil May Cry)
Chance: Abstain
I tend to take deconfirmation by devs to be pretty absolute. Breaks my heart since that includes one of my most-wanted, Travis Touchdown, but c'est la vie.

Want: 50%
This is...a tough one for me. On one hand, Dante is an iconic character with a great series, a character who I imported the figure of as a kid, limitless moveset potential, killer music, the possibility of some dream matches like against Bayonetta...

...But!

The only character who has never been on Nintendo that I'm okay with being in Smash anyway is 2B. Dante wasn't even in the Gamecube version of Viewtiful Joe (but my god did he make the PS2 version more than worth playing several more times). He's never been on Nintendo and yeah, he's awesome, but that's a mental block I just can't get past. If Capcom is getting another rep I'd want Phoenix Wright, Leon S. Kennedy, Ameratasu, Viewtiful Joe...really, any major Capcom name who's had Nintendo presence first. Especially Phoenix.

I wouldn't complain, but I can't say I want him.

Nominations: Poochy x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

ADD ALL THE CHARACTERS

Chance: 0.1%
Want: 100%

So, an extra 18 characters? Sounds amazing...but I can't see them going for it.

Sakurai's statements really make it seem like he's not a fan of DLC in general, and getting an extra 18 would require DLC echoes and an extra season or two. Not out of the question, but not really likely either unless this game gets a lot of post-release support.

I'd love it, especially if Dovahkiin and Tails were part of that 18, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Heck, even getting more than the 5 we know about seems pretty unlikely for me. Pity - I'd be down for loads of characters since I could only buy the ones I wanted...but let's face it: if they brought in some of my pipe dreams, I'd probably end up buying the whole lot.

 

[Nemuresu]

I would've made a large post for today, but we all know how that ended.
Dante:
Chance: 0%-If Itsuno said to first ask for Devil May Cry to be in Nintendo consoles before getting Dante in Smash, it's because he never talked with Sakurai, which, at that point should've already happened. So yes, there goes basically all possibilities of seeing him.
Want: 90%-He's an incredibly fun character, full with all sorts of magic, gun tricks and slashes. With how crazy he is in the MvC series, I'd love to see how he fares on Smash.

100 characters:
Chance: 0%-Yeah, I don't see it happening at all. I mean, most fighting games haven't had more than one DLC season, and the ones that did don't ever get past the second as well. We're getting only 5 characters in this pass and I don't see this game being supported with content for more than two years.
Want: 0%-There's room for characters I care about, but in one hundred, there's going to be a point where everyone is a f***ing stretch like all the Fire Emblem characters, so I'm not going to take that.

EDIT: Nearly forgot my nominations. Morrigan x5

 

[SmasherMaster]

Smash Bros Centuries (100 Fighters)
Chance: 1%
I can't see them adding more fighters for Ultimate DLC than any other Smash game (Fun fact: Brawl, Smash 4 and Ultimate each added 18 characters to the base game roster that weren't playable in the previous installment. Now this pattern doesn't mean the next Smash game will have a hundred characters, but counting echoes, Mii Fighters and Pokemon Trainer trio all as their own characters gives the base roster give us 76. If we only get Piranha Plant and the 1st Season Pass, we have 82, which happens to be 18 less than one hundred). I can easily see them making it so the base roster of the next new Smash Bros game to be 100 characters with the name that fits.
Want: 25%
For the record, it is not that I don't want more characters, but I don't want to spend an extra $100 to bring the game's roster up to a 100 characters.

Featuring Dante from Devil May Cry (Dante)
Chance: 0.01%
Meh. I don't think that it is entirely out of the realm of possibility, but I trust the devs when it comes to this type of thing.
Want: 40%
I have no connection with him or his series. On the other hand, he does seem to look cool, and he would have a unique interesting moveset. Also, memes.

EDIT: Nominations:
Decidueye x4
Tracer x1

 

[Artix]

100 Characters

Chance: 15%
That entirely depends whether Sakurai is willing to have more DLC characters after the first wave and if the Switch can last that long. In my opinion, though, I find it to be unlikely since I think we're getting up to 2 seasons of DLC at best (assuming we are getting a Season 2 DLC, that is). Besides, Sakurai himself deserves a break or two after the first wave of DLC, so I don't think the character roster would reach 100 at this point.

Want: 80%
More characters are always appreciated, to be honest, especially if my most wanted characters are part of that list. But, I took 20% away because of the fact that Sakurai really deserves a break after the first wave, so I'm fine on what we're getting through DLC.

Dante

Chance: 0%
The director already said that DMC must have a Nintendo console release before we can consider Dante in, so there you go. It's a shame since Dante is one of the most likely Capcom candidate in Smash alongside Leon, Monster Hunter, Amaterasu and Phoenix Wright.

Want: 80%
I have played DMC games for quite some time and I'm liking Dante. He definitely has moveset potential, if his move lists from MvC3 is anything to go by. He would definitely be a fun character to play as and I wouldn't mind if Capcom were to get him as their fourth character, but since he's been deconfirmed by the DMC director himself, maybe next time.

Monster Hunter Prediction: 18.22%

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[3DSNinja]

100 Chars.
Chance:10%: If COULD happen, but honestly I see 3 waves max. and 1 Echo pass. so no.
Want:90%: I would love more characters. Taking 10% off because sakurai needs a break.
Featuring Dante from the Devil May Cry series.
Chance: 0.01%: He was deconfirmed. although DMC 5 or a collection of the first 4 games could be put on Switch, thus making him possible. Probably not happening gho.
Want:100%: He would be really cool. I really want a nother combo heavy char. Plus DMC looks cool.Chance
Nominations: Black Mage x5

 

[lordvaati]

The One who should have filled your dark soul with LIIIIIIGGHT

Chance:0%. Probably the only game character I would rank as a 0, as many have stated there is an interview that straight up says Dante cannot get into Smash until some DMC games get ports on Nintendo platforms.
Want:90%. Dante is one of the most recognizable 2000s era Capcom characters and has a bottomless pit of moveset potential from his games. He also is a very popular crossover character Capcom uses, as seen by stuff like Viewtiful Joe and SMT. Only thing that holds him back is the forementioned lack of presence on Nintendo systems outside of Project x Zone and possible stiff competition of being the next Capcom character from the Monster Hunter.

100 characters (?)
Chance:5%. While it is possible, I don't expect too much beyond the Fighter's pass, as it seems other additions will be just free mode updates as teased by Version 3.0.
Want:...1%. I feel like I'm one of the few who isn't a big fan of the idea, so I'll give as best a gist why as possible. I feel through an unintentional way this game may have started a trend of "roster creep" that not only effects Smash but also other fighting games as well. While ," Everyone is Here" is not really a new concept as seen by things like the VF series, MvC2, KoF98 or the Tekken Tag games Ultimate has started a mindset in most casual player minds that now ALL fighting games must do an Everyone is Here with sequels, which is just not always possible due to things like budgets, licensing deals etc. Many solid and newer fighting games have been overlooked due to having a more compact roster of around 15-20 characters which I believe is due to the obsession of wanting more.

And then when you get that more-many are not sure what to do with it. When a roster gets too large it has a tendency of being too immense that players can be known to literally "forget" characters in the game, or leads to inevitable cases of many characters just feeling like more of the same(anyone who played the DBZ Budokai Tenkaichi games knows what I'm getting at.) And I also disagree with the idea of just back porting Ultimate ad infinitum because unlike a MOBA I feel that model doesn't work too good for Smash on the long term, and it's really just a response from Sakurai saying that "Everyone is Here" will probably never happen again.

Roster balance is a tough art, and hard for me to describe properly, but excess does more harm then good in my mind.

Nomination: Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Missed a couple of days because I was out, but I'm back now and ready to rate!

100 characters
Chance: 5%. It's very unlikely, given how it's taking so long just to release one to the public (We still have to wait for about two more months for Joker to release)? Unless SSBU has the longevity to go on for a LONG time, we're probably going to get two seasons of DLC at most.

Want: 50%. On the one hand, more characters means more chances for the characters I want. On the other, it also means more chances for characters I don't want, plus it runs the risk of going stale.

Featuring Dante from the Devil May Cry- wait, crud, somebody already made that joke
Chance: 0%. I normally don't give characters a straight-up 0, but Dante's already been deconfirmed three separate times. I don't think there's anything else to say on the matter.

Want: 40%.
On the one hand, Capcom has plenty of other reps that make more sense. Like Amaterasu, a Monster Hunter, or Phoenix Wright, for instance. On the other, Dante is amongst their most popular characters used for crossovers, and a very popular Capcom character, period. He's got a wide and varied list of moves from the various DMC games to draw on (The ACTUAL DMC series, NOT the reboot, god no), so coming up with a moveset that effectively captures Dante's style wouldn't be too hard.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5

 

[shocktarts17]

100 Characters
Chance: 0%
This honestly feels like the safest zero I've given. While Nintendo had started to show they want to support a game for a while after release with Splatoon the difference between weapons or maps and full blown dlc characters is pretty big. I just don't see them deciding to keep doing Smash DLC on and on like that, their philosophy usually seems to lean towards making the next game instead. If they truly were thinking about that kind of support I feel like they would have said something to that effect when they were marketing it, but as of now we don't even know if they will do more dlc once the fighter's pass is over.

Want: 99%
More is good lol. That said I think my only concern would be how much that would cost to buy 20+ additional characters as dlc.

Dante
Chance: deconfirmed
Want: 15%
While obviously deconfirmed I guess I'll say what I would have said before that, which would be exactly what the developer said. I know we're moving more and more past Nintendo characters but I still think the series should be on a Nintendo console at some point, we still have plenty of options left without having to select characters with no Nintendo history. That said I enjoyed the DMC game I played (I think it was 4?) but I never had a strong attachment to the character do that plus no Nintendo history keeps my want score low. He probably would have a cool moveset, but while he has tons of weapon options I suspect he'd probably just use his sword and gun which would be disappointing.

Prediction: Monster Hunter 35%
Nominations: Palico x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

100 characters
Chance: 0% - It’s probably going to take well over a year for the first season pass to be completed, seeing as we had to wait four months just for Joker. An additional 18 characters could possibly drive this game right into the next console generation. Nintendo has never supported DLC that long into a games lifespan.
Want: 0% - There’s no way I’d want to spend nearly $100 on all that DLC for what would presumably be just Characters and stages. We also need to take into account that having Sakurai and his team work on DLC for that long will also inevitably mean we’ll need to wait a lot longer before work on SSB6 begins. Please let Sakurai and his team have a break.

I’m abstaining from Dante.

Nominations: Concept Persona Spirits x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

100 Characters

Chance: 0.05%

- Unlikely, unless we get a lot of echo DLC characters.
- Characters take a lot of work and it's a miracle that this game managed to be balanced.

(Technically we are at 99 characters when you include the DLC characters, gender alts, Pokemon Trainers and alt characters, and it will be 100 if one of the 5 DLC characters has a gender alt or alt character).

Want: 100%

-Actually yes.
-Considering that is the highest peak for Smash in it's history, it would truly be meaningful to the name of Ultimate.

Dante

Chance: 1%

-Unless there's something different, the producers's own words outright disconfirms him, at least for season 1.
-He does have a bit of a chance if there's a season 2 pass announced though.

Want: 75%

- He would be pretty cool.
-And it would be great to finally have Dante and Bayonetta in the same game.

Nominate Concept: DLC Challenges x5

 

[Deleted member]

100 characters

Chance: 1%
The development team has to move on eventually to new projects and the game becomes more difficult to balance with each new character added. Could see additional DLC in the form of echoes and one or two additional newcomers outside of the pass, but not many.

Want: 10%
With another pass, the DLC would be pretty close to Ultimate's retail price. And while I would love more characters, the DLC would be more difficult to justify for me. And at that point, the DLC would pretty much include potential newcomers for Smash 6 (Astral Chain protag, Rex & Pyra, Arms protag, maybe Dixie)

Dante
Chance:
Itsuno literally shoot it down

Want: 80%
DMC 1 & 3 are pretty much the only games I played from his franchise. Dante is a fun character, and he would be a great foil to Bayonetta. His gameplay options are great and diverse enough to make him stand out from the rest of the roster.

Here's hoping that the DMC games come to Nintendo so he can appear later.

Nom Hayabusa x 5

 

[DaUsername]

Dante From The Devil May Cry Series
Chance: 0%
He's Disconfirmed. Second sentence so my post gets counted.
Want: N/A

Still Only Half As Many As Tobal 2
Chance: 0.01%
Unless they decide to add 20 Echo Fighters, this proably won't happen. Especially with Sakurai's comments about needing a break.
Want: N/A

MH prediction: 30%
Noms: SE rep x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over new day

 

[Sari]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 40%
I still find it weird how we got Rathalos as a boss but no Monster Hunter character or stage. One part of me thinks that we were originally going to get a MH character but they weren't added due to time constraints or some other issues. Another part of me thinks that Sakurai intended Rathalos to be the only form of MH representation in Smash. That second part doesn't matter too much though since Nintendo was the one giving Sakurai the DLC options. Considering the fact that Monster Hunter is insanely popular on both sides of the globe, I think that there is a somewhat good chance of us getting a MH rep.

Want: 10%
Never got into the Monster Hunter games. If we got a MH rep that would be pretty cool but there are a ton of other characters I'd rather see instead.

Maxwell chance prediction: 2.28%

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 0 - I really dont see him getting into the game as DLC. Feel like MH would have made more sense as a base roster member being revealed with Rathalos. Also with the monsters feeling far more special than the hunter themselves I wouldnt be surprised if Rathalos is the only MH rep in the game.

Want - Abstain

Noms:
Porky x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 10%
Monster Hunter has been doing really well as of late. MH world has been really succesfull and the series has many games on Nintendo platforms, some of them being exclusive. They would likely be very profitable as DLC. Still, there's the dragon in the room, Rathalos as a boss/assist to be specific. With it, Monster Hunter already has some form of major representation, with Rathalos being one of the handfull amount of bosses in this game. When it comes to third-parties in the Fighter pass I'm mainly expecting series not yet represented in any way. For example, I see a RE character being major competition to the hunters. Thus, I'm thinking we'll likely just see them back as Mii costumes if anything.

Want: 2%
Meh, Monster Hunter just doesn't look like a series for me. The pool of third-parties I desire is small at this point. Monster Hunter isn't in that.

Maxwell: 4.39%
Metal Sonic x5

When's the page update btw?

 

[GoodGrief741]

My rating and noms update will come at a later time.

 

[Ornl]

Monster Hunter
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain

Goog point :
- Big commercial success and good reviews in world even in japan.

Weak points :
- The series is already represented. The fact that Rathalos is already in the game is not an open door, but a closed door. There is no reason for Monster Hunter to be in DLC claiming "to bring novelty", while Rathalos is in the base game.
- Unlike 100% of Fighters, including third-party and DLC characters, and its 3 rivals (Phoenix Wright, Leon S. Kennedy and Amaterasu), Monster Hunter doesn't have its first episode on Nintendo support. Unlike Street Fighter and Mega Man, his license is subject to a significant age limit, which isn't the case of 93.6% of Fighters (the others are the Konami Fighter, Bayonetta and Joker).
- Unlike about ≈ 2/3 of Fighters, Monster Hunter is a human male. What he has more than ≈ 1/3 ? In Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite, he has a very large sword, which is reminiscent of this Fighters who come from third party licenses at the origin : Shulk and Cloud. He also has claws for infighting, which is original for a human, but not for a Smash Fighter. The shape of the claw attacks and the bow also make me think of Pit.
- Capcom has already Ken as a new Fighter, even if it is an Echo. Capcom has the most Assist Trophies, Bosses and Mii Costumes (and Spirits, for info) in Ultimate. That's what Capcom is finally better represented than Sega. Yet, in a Famitsu survey, 27% of 5287 rquestioned readers (more one-fourth) said they preferred Sega/Atlus among all licenses combined. Capcom represents only 4%.
I am not convinced that Capcom will have a new Fighter.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Monster Hunter
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain

Goog point :
- Big commercial success and good reviews in world even in japan.

Weak points :
- The series is already represented. The fact that Rathalos is already in the game is not an open door, but a closed door. There is no reason for Monster Hunter to be in DLC claiming "to bring novelty", while Rathalos is in the base game.
- Unlike 100% of Fighters, including third-party and DLC characters, and its 3 rivals (Phoenix Wright, Leon S. Kennedy and Amaterasu), Monster Hunter doesn't have its first episode on Nintendo support. Unlike Street Fighter and Mega Man, his license is subject to a significant age limit, which isn't the case of 93.6% of Fighters (the others are the Konami Fighter, Bayonetta and Joker).
- Unlike about ≈ 2/3 of Fighters, Monster Hunter is a human male. What he has more than ≈ 1/3 ? In Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite, he has a very large sword, which is reminiscent of this Fighters who come from third party licenses at the origin : Shulk and Cloud. He also has claws for infighting, which is original for a human, but not for a Smash Fighter. The shape of the claw attacks and the bow also make me think of Pit.
- Capcom has already Ken as a new Fighter, even if it is an Echo. Capcom has the most Assist Trophies, Bosses and Mii Costumes (and Spirits, for info) in Ultimate. That's what Capcom is finally better represented than Sega. Yet, in a Famitsu survey, 27% of 5287 rquestioned readers (more one-fourth) said they preferred Sega/Atlus among all licenses combined. Capcom represents only 4%.
I am not convinced that Capcom will have a new Fighter.

Let me break down these arguements.

-You downplay how big Monster Hunter is. Monster Hunter is a huge franchise, especially in Japan. Monster Hunter also has made further crossroads into being a big title in the West with MH World and Generations Ultimate on Switch.

- Being in smash already as a series is a good thing. It can be seen as a foot in the door. Furthermore, with the stage area already modeled and the license already partially in smash, it would be an easy negotiation and workload.

- First episode on Nintendo Support? Cloud in 4, Joker now. Franchise presence and legacy takes priority over Nintendo presence.

- I wouldn’t say an overall age rating of T for the franchise is significant.

-...you do know that you can play as a female Hunter right? It’s even the promoted option in MvCI. Making a definitive statement like that is fine, except when it is blatant misinformation.

-Shulk is first party, this is common knowledge. Misinformation like this to make a point is highly frowned upon.

- Saying they would not be unique or interesting is not a strong arguement. I can say they would be just as easily and toss together a moveset.

- Maybe we have Capcom content due to them being easy to work with? Your main logic is we have already gotten Capcom content and should get other content instead. First off, Ryu in 4 is a historical example of this type of idea being wrong. But even more, this poll just says the Sega properties are popular. We are getting a Sega property as DLC 1. This doesn’t say anything particularly about anti Capcom sentiment.

So many points that are either easily refutable, opinionated conpletely, or flat out wrong. You downplayed how big MH was in order to make claims that were not accurate in the first place. Saying that a teen rating is a big entry bar limit when many fighters we have already fall into that territory or higher is just wrong. Monster Hunter is not locked as a male. Etc.

Expect my scores later, I actually have a lot to say on this character.

 

[Ornl]

-You downplay how big Monster Hunter is. Monster Hunter is a huge franchise, especially in Japan. Monster Hunter also has made further crossroads into being a big title in the West with MH World and Generations Ultimate on Switch.
You downplayed how big MH was in order

No (Wrong intention lent). I noted : "Goog point : Big commercial success and good reviews in world even in japan."

- the stage area already modeled. It would be an easy negotiation and workload.

DLC appear with new areas. Smash U has hit record sales and there is time for the development of DLC. No need for easy negotiation and workload.
You don't "break down" arguement, you simply confront your opinion. But there are better threads adapted for that.

- First episode on Nintendo Support? Cloud in 4, Joker now. Franchise presence and legacy takes priority over Nintendo presence.

The first episode Final Fantasy is on Nintendo. The first episode of Megami Tensei is on Nintendo. I am referring to licenses, introducing Monster Hunter in italic as a license. But it is true that it was not clear enough. Then...

Shulk is first party, this is common knowledge. Misinformation like this to make a point is highly frowned upon.

This time I made it clear that it was the original license, in this case Monolith Soft concerning Xenosaga. The stigmatisation of "misinformation" is therefore null.

Saying that a teen rating is a big entry bar limit when many fighters we have already fall into that territory or higher is just wrong.

It's just your opinion. You don't "break down" arguement, you simply confront your opinion. But there are better threads adapted for that.

Monster Hunter is not locked as a male.

He remains a "half male" human anyway, like WF Trainer, Villager... maybe like Erdrick will be too, which counts as 0.5 in my proportion calculations.

This doesn’t say anything particularly about anti Capcom sentiment.

It remains my opinion. This thread asks for my opinion, I express my opinion. If you had to repeat the phrase "This does not say anything particularly about...", Lloyd Irving would not have got 48% in this thread. Crash wouldn't have got 28%. By pointing it out to me, and only to me, with an unusual form of response, you are no longer opposed only to any idea, but aslo to my person. I don't find that fair compared to all the other opinions.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Naked Snake

Chance: 8%
With Rathalos, a boss stage and music representing the franchise, methinks that’s all we’ll get. The big point of Monster Hunter is the monsters themselves, so this might be deliberate. This doesn’t mean that they could have done a MH character and didn’t, or that they can’t change their minds afterwards, but the effect of Monster Hunter as a playable character is certainly diminished. Not to mention the big competition in RE and PW.

Want: 40%
Monster Hunter is somewhat iconic so I wouldn’t be against their inclusion. Still, he would be kind of a boring pick to me, and I have never played a MH game. Resident Evil deserves the place more and Phoenix Wright is my most wanted third party, so I’d rather not.

Noms: No fan favorites x5

TCT~Phantom Can we just ban that guy? It’s clear he’s not contributing to discussion at all.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom Can we just ban that guy? It’s clear he’s not contributing to discussion at all.

As much as I would like to, no. I don’t want to set a precedent even if they do not contribute to the thread in a meaningful way or even properly debate. Even if I personally find the way they go about this annoying and counterproductive, they technically have not done anything wrong other than blatant misinformation. Should this continue on their part however, I will consider some form of action.

Also I feel I shouldn’t have to say this but don’t attack them in general for everyone in the thread. I don’t want this to be a witch hunt.

 

[BowserKing]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 20%
Rathalos made it in, with some music, so there is a possible chance, it's just that there is a lot of competition.

Want: 50%
We do need a few monsters and a Monster Hunter Stage

Noms: 2 for Square Enix and 3 for Assist Trophy (or Pokeball Pokémon) becomes fighter

 

[Flyboy]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 50%
I don't feel that the Hunter has much of a chance because they'd be revealed with Rathalos, but I also can't deny that they're an easy in for the same reason. It's complicated. Big series, big name, cool designs, fun weapons, but I hear the director only likes Monsters being used to rep the series, hence Rathalos being in. Maybe we could see the Mii costume back though.

Want: 25%
MonHun is a big and cool series, an iconic smash hit, incredibly deserving in Smash, and I love the Hunter's design in Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite. However, they're kinda dull... Like Goodgrief, Phoenix Wright is my most-wanted third party at this point and Resident Evil is another Capcom seriesI I'd really like to see. That's not even dipping into others I want like Viewtiful Joe. The Hunter is, like...fine. I wouldn't hate it. But it's not exciting and it's competition with all the ones I actually want.

I did see someone suggest a Felyne and I can't deny that that would be fun because I have a weakness for cute cats with weapons.

Nominations: Poochy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: 100 characters/Dante pre-Monster Hunter

Concept: World of Light expansion x185
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x180
Q*Bert x179
Sly Cooper x170
Kat & Ana x145
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Tracer x132

150 - 101


Poochy x131
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Vaati x125
Concept: Undertale rep x120
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Ryu Hayabusa x115
Porky Minch x113
Impa x101

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x85
Creeper x80
Yuri Lowell x80
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x70
Spyro x67
Frogger x60
Ninten x52

50 - 25

Jin Kazama x50
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x35
Tetromino x35
Decidueye x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Metal Sonic x30
Concept: Square Enix rep x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25


Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Morrigan Aensland x20
X (Mega Man) x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Palico x10
Concept: DLC challenges x10
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Mike Jones x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Tracer jumps to seventh place, blasts Bonkers off the top 7.

Ninten slips past 50 noms.

Today’s newcomer is Mike Jones, with 5 noms.

 

[Ridrool64]

Monster Hunter Monster Hunter (Monster Hunter) [Revolver Ocelot]

Chance: 45%. The guy has lots of competition, but they stand out as being a financial mega-hit. Some part of me believes that they absolutely would have made base game if they were in, though: Rathalos representing them early is kinda weird. Then there's Ken, and I'm not too confident on any of Capcom's lineup. However, if Capcom gets somebody else, this is what they will almost certainly get.

Want: 20%. Besides the baseline, I flat out do not care. I tried that Monster Hunter demo on Switch, and I found that I could hardly figure anything out, it was a massive info dump and trying to do things that didn't work against damage sponge enemies, and I'm going to assume that the series isn't for me. Maybe I got unlucky and played an awful first game, I dunno.

Sly Cooper x 5.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

No (Wrong intention lent). I noted : "Goog point : Big commercial success and good reviews in world even in japan."


DLC appear with new areas. Smash U has hit record sales and there is time for the development of DLC. No need for easy negotiation and workload.
You don't "break down" arguement, you simply confront your opinion. But there are better threads adapted for that.


The first episode Final Fantasy is on Nintendo. The first episode of Megami Tensei is on Nintendo. I am referring to licenses, introducing Monster Hunter in italic as a license. But it is true that it was not clear enough. Then...

This time I made it clear that it was the original license, in this case Monolith Soft concerning Xenosaga. The stigmatisation of "misinformation" is therefore null.


It's just your opinion. You don't "break down" arguement, you simply confront your opinion. But there are better threads adapted for that.


He remains a "half male" human anyway, like WF Trainer, Villager... maybe like Erdrick will be too, which counts as 0.5 in my proportion calculations.


It remains my opinion. This thread asks for my opinion, I express my opinion. If you had to repeat the phrase "This does not say anything particularly about...", Lloyd Irving would not have got 48% in this thread. Crash wouldn't have got 28%. By pointing it out to me, and only to me, with an unusual form of response, you are no longer opposed only to any idea, but aslo to my person. I don't find that fair compared to all the other opinions.

Gonna run through these quick.

1. I said downplayed, you basically brushed it off.
2. No Source. All we know is they come with stages.
3. ???. First game being on a Nintendo platform doesn’t matter. Snakes first game was ported and Sonic is self explanatory.
4. Shulk is a Xenoblade character and is first party. This is misinformation especially in the context of your original post.
5. Your original post called monster Hunter a He. You never make reference to this “half” idea.

Now this is the last point I’m actually gonna focus on. I call out dumb stuff and BS all the time in this thread. When someone says something false I call them out. People get out of hand personally I talk to them. You repeatedly back up your opinions with arbitrary points, such as Rhythm Girl can’t be in because WFT has white skin, or we have too many reptiles already. Any criticisms of holes in your arguements you attempt to deflect by notinng any incling of a logical fallacy or say “it’s just your opinion”. The point of this thread is to debate about smash speculation. Coming in with an arbitrary reason for a character to have a 0, then get super defensive when called out is not appreciated. In the past I did warn you about this, and I will warn you again one last time. Either learn to debate in a civil way (clearly something about your debating style and logic has caused people to be hostile, which I will note I warned people not to attack individuals) or your contributions will be ignored.

 

[Ornl]

Gonna run through these quick.

1. I said downplayed, you basically brushed it off.
2. No Source. All we know is they come with stages.
3. ???. First game being on a Nintendo platform doesn’t matter. Snakes first game was ported and Sonic is self explanatory.
4. Shulk is a Xenoblade character and is first party. This is misinformation especially in the context of your original post.
5. Your original post called monster Hunter a He. You never make reference to this “half” idea.

Now this is the last point I’m actually gonna focus on. I call out dumb stuff and BS all the time in this thread. When someone says something false I call them out. People get out of hand personally I talk to them. You repeatedly back up your opinions with arbitrary points, such as Rhythm Girl can’t be in because WFT has white skin, or we have too many reptiles already. Any criticisms of holes in your arguements you attempt to deflect by notinng any incling of a logical fallacy or say “it’s just your opinion”. The point of this thread is to debate about smash speculation. Coming in with an arbitrary reason for a character to have a 0, then get super defensive when called out is not appreciated. In the past I did warn you about this, and I will warn you again one last time. Either learn to debate in a civil way (clearly something about your debating style and logic has caused people to be hostile, which I will note I warned people not to attack individuals) or your contributions will be ignored.

Snake was born on NES. Sonic first game was ported in 2006 on GBA, two years before Brawl. Shulk is a Xenoblade character and is first party whose origins are a license appeared in 2002 by Monolith Soft. That's what I said.
"Your original post called monster Hunter a He. You never make reference to this “half” idea."
- Its true. But that does not really change my original idea.

Stigmatizing dumb, BS, or any arbitrary judgment on the intentions of anybody brings a violence that divides. This is the judgment that invites witch hunts. A complete subject on the effects of judgments exists here. If people react with hostility, the problem comes from their feelings, the assumptions they make.

"Coming in with an arbitrary reason for a character"
- Everybody in this thread comes with any arbitrary reasons for characters.
"The point of this thread is to debate about smash speculation."
- It's OK for me. It's just that Rule # 1 of a debate is respect for the opinion of the other. If I think "zero chance", I write : "zero chance". I shouldn't to be dishonest to myself to comply with other expectations.

 

[TheCJBrine]

"Coming in with an arbitrary reason for a character"
- Everybody in this thread comes with any arbitrary reasons for characters.

People usually keep out arbitrary statistics and whatever that mean little to what the devs are actually thinking in their chance score; anything "arbitrary" is just their opinion for want.

Some people's chance scores are affected by things that may seem arbitrary, but they're usually based on events and such that have happened or information like a Devil May Cry producer saying "Nope" or evidence that may lead to a particular inclusion. We're all just having a hard time understanding these little facts like "white male protagonist" or "100% of prior characters have been from a Japanese franchise," even though theories based on stuff like this have always been broken.

 

[SKX31]

Monster Hunter:

Chance: 45 %. Again, lots of competition, but could do a lot. That said, maybe pieces of the moveset could be pulled from MvCI? Yea, I know that game bombed, but I don't get the sense that it's a terrible game outright.

Abstain on want. Not just because I haven't played the series, but have not much interest either way. Perhaps prime Smash 6 material?

Noms: Tracer x3 / No fan favs x2