Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Pacack · Oct 13, 2018

Kotor said:
Hanafuda already rated not too long ago.

RealPokeFan11 said:
You might wanna add another sentence for that nomination to count. Also this "character" was already rated.

My bad, I meant historical character.

Tew · Oct 13, 2018

…Well then, Thwomp it is:

Chance: 0,0000001% (Or 0%, if too stupid to calculate ^^” But with Sakurai there always is a “chance”)
Pros:
He is a Nintendo video game character.
Cons:
He isn´t the likeliest Mario Character, he isn´t even the likeliest Mario enemy, he isn´t even the likeliest minor Mario enemy, heck, he isn´t even the likeliest random, minor Mario enemy with an extremely limited movement area who´s name ends with “-omp”.
That spot belongs to Chain Chomp, who at least appeared as a playable Character in the recent game Mario Tennis Aces and was an AT and in Smash Run in Smash 4 + there was a Mii hat (“Chomp Hat”). I could also somewhat imagine moving Chomp around, but Thwomp?!
Thwomp being one of Kirby´s stone transformations is already more than I would have ever expected him to be before Melee.
Right now, the lowest rated (Chance) Characters are 63. Blue Bowser (0.12%), 64. Lucas - The Wizard (0.11%) and 65. Yarne/Owain Tag Team (0.09%). And I would give Blue Bowser and Yarne/Owain Tag Team a higher chance than Thwomp.
At best he could end up as an item (I don´t even think an AT is possible).

Want: 1%
Only because I´d be interested how the f... Sakurai would make a moveset for that thing. But aside from that, I´d prefer Chain Chomp over him. (Though my biggest hope for a Mario series villain/enemy is Petey Piranha.)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Nomination:
Slime: 5x (Time to bring another one of my hopes to the top) (Btw get Ready for tomorrow...is there a word Limit for a post?)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Sid-cada · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp

Chacne - 0% - ...Isn't he disconfirmed because Kirby can transform into them? Even then, what can he do?

Want - 0% - ...I have no words on how much I feel like this is a stupid idea. Thwomp's aren't even my favorite Generic Enemy (go Boos!), and they offer near nothing, move set wise.

Nominations

Dragon Quest's Slime X5

Icedragonadam · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp

Chance: 0.0001%

This is a joke right? Then again Goomba is playable in Mario Party, and Chain Chomp in Mario Tennis Aces.

Nominate Yoshi's Crafted World Stage x5

Ridrool64 · Oct 13, 2018

Wow, I feel bad for poor Thwomp.

Double zeroes. I actually, physically believe that there is absolutely no hope for this guy. Editing in that I honestly feel like he's actually below Goku tier, but replace fourth party with too long a waiting list. This is my biggest fear for Arle given form. Arle being pushed back on the SEGA waiting list, like how Thwomp is that far down on the Mario waiting list alone, let alone that of the first party list. If there was ever an impossible character, this is it. When I can honest to god see Goku and SpongeBob as likelier than you, you know you're impossible.

Noms: Unique Puzzle Game character x 5

CaptainAmerica · Oct 13, 2018

...
...
Really?

It’s disconfirmed already. Kirby has a Thwomp as part of his down special.

Why is this not a double day? Thwomp didn’t even make playable in the latest Mario Party, despite Goomba being playable there. I dislike joke characters for the sake of joke characters.

Completely unnecessary. Double zeroes.

Nom: DLC costumes x5

DaUsername · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp
Chance: Urgh. (0%)
It's the Thwomp, do I really need to elaborate on this? Thwomps are already part of Kirby's Down Special anyway, so they probably won't be playable.
Want: 1%
I'm only giving this a 1% because I really like that picture of Snake Kong holding a Thwomp. Also that one Newgrounds series about The Thwomps was pretty funny. But in all seriousness, I'm not even sure how you'd make a moveset for this character.

Some FE character prediction: 1%
Noms: Any Minecraft representation x5

TCT~Phantom · Oct 13, 2018

Al-kīmiyā' said:
Thwomp want: 0%

A big rock jumping around isn't very interesting. I think Sandbag actually has more moveset potential.

Nominations:

Merric x5

TCT~Phantom what's the purpose of purging nominations?

I have said this literally every time we have done a noms purge and posted my logic for this purge in this thread before. But since you were not paying attention, here.

1. Noms list gets cluttered, ideas lower down get abandoned and just stay there with a x2. Cleaning up the noms list makes it better looking.

2. Game is winding down, purging a lot of noms would make it so we can rate as much as possible.

3. Makes people engaged. If they hear that there is a nom purge, they participate more to save their char. Happens each time I do a purge.

FancySmash · Oct 13, 2018

So, uh, considering I only know of one named Thwomp, I'm going to do my rating based off that Thwomp.

Marty the Thwomp

Chance: 0.01%
It is indeed a video game character, but considering even this thwomp is only named by the fan community, I don't see even this one happening. An average thwomp has it even worse, as I'd actually see a Goomba or Koopa get in first before thwomp, considering they're more iconic to the Mario series. Even creating a moveset for Thwomp seems difficult...

Want: 0.01%
I... kinda want to see it just to see how it'd happen. Otherwise, no. Just no. Kirby already reps thwomps rather well in my opinion. Still, a good joke is a good joke.

NintenRob · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp

Double 0
This would be a great assist trophy, but as a playable character? This is obviously joke rating. This should have been a double day. Have we had a character get 0 chance rating average yet? I hope we get scores soon though

Nominate Daroach x5

Artix · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp

Chance: 0%
Really? Who nominated this guy? Anyway, I don't see it happening, since I assume Kirby still has a Thwomp as one of the Stones he can transform. He could be great as an Assist Trophy, I gotta admit, but as a playable character? Nah, man. How would you make a moveset based on a character who goes up and down all the time?

Want: 0%
If we're getting a generic Mario villain in Smash, I would pretty much want Petey Piranha instead. Besides, Thwomp is not even that interesting of a character in Smash and I don't want him to be a playable character.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

YoshiandToad · Oct 13, 2018

CaptainAmerica said:
Why is this not a double day? Thwomp didn’t even make playable in the latest Mario Party, despite Goomba being playable there. I dislike joke characters for the sake of joke characters.

You know...I've always wondered why Goomba DOESN'T put in more spinoff playable appearances like his fellow villains. He's probably the best known minion character of all time alongside Koopa Troopa, and yet Super Mario Party is one of his first appearences as playable outside Super Sluggers which had EVERYONE playable.
At first I thought it was due to a lack of arms but then I remembered...Boo was playable in a football/soccer game...despite not having any legs with which to kick the ball...huh.

Anyway;

Thwomp
Chance: 0%
I'm confident in this. If Toad and Waluigi aren't allowed to participate as playable characters, I doubt Thwomp will. Heck, even amongst Mario enemies he's below Koopa Troopa, Shy Guy, Blooper, Hammer Bro, Dry Bones, Boo and yes...Goomba...in terms of popularity at bare minimum. Thwomps do seem more popular than Whomps though so they have the advantage over their close cousins.

Also if people think Captain Toad has trouble translating to a playable Smasher because he can't jump...I'm not entirely sure if anyone is going to be able to envision a playable block with no limbs or attacks outside falling on players.

Want: 1%
I love Mario characters as a general rule. The creative designs used in the species; Toads, Yoshis, Lakitus, Koopa Troopas, Bob-ombs and yep; Goombas again are all creative, and sort of brilliantly designed. Weirdly however Thwomp is one of the few Mario species I tend to forget exist with alarming regularity. I think it might be because he's literally just a concrete block with a face plonked on it that grunts.

I'd prefer Thwomp as a giant stage to be honest, falling down and rising back up with the cast fighting atop him rather than a character, but I'll give a 1% for curiousity on how in the heck it can be made to work.

zeonie888 · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp: O.o;

Chance: 0%
It doesn't has much going for it. It just has one thing for it and that's slamming the ground. Several characters can do this as a down special.

Want: 0%
Although I find it goofy but if there were to be an enemy character it would have to Petey Piranha.

UtopianPoyzin · Oct 13, 2018

TCT~Phantom said:
FYI with at least 20 days, five noms a day, you can potentially save anything from a purge or get something up raw.

TCT~Phantom said:
Day over, rate Thwomp.

Well, with each "day" lasting two, it would take 40 days to save something with 5 noms a day. And you ended early? Cmon, I needed to rate Ray. And I was going to switch all of my nominations over to Balloon Fighter so that I could save him a slot just in case a "special someone" attempted to save him. Demille's getting double 0s from me anyway.

THWOMP

On the topic of double 0s. This is actually kinda frustrating. I get it was a joke and all, but with Ultimate this close, I want to see some characters with real chances. He's a basic enemy with little to no movement besides up and down. Assist Trophy is the utter maximum thwomp will get in this game. He has no real attacks besides thwomping enemies. He is already represented (and quite possibly deconfirmed) in Kirby's down special. Need I say more?

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Can we get Quote up here? Quote x5

Smasher 101 · Oct 13, 2018

URGH

DOUBLE ZEROES

I mean, even ignoring the fact that it's technically out of the running already...lol never happening. It's just a regular enemy and it's not close to being one of the most popular ones. Plus it's literally a rock with a face that just smashes into the ground in the same spot over and over. Not something you can really turn into a fighter.

I like Thwomps, but as a Smash fighter...yeah, no. Stick with the more reasonable options, thank you.

Nominations: Saki x5

aarchak · Oct 13, 2018

Thwomp

Chance: 0%
Listen, whoever pushed this into being rated, I appreciate your dedication, but this ain't happening. It's so obvious why it isn't that I'm not sure if I even need to explain, but in short: how would you make Thwomp a functioning character?
Want: 30%
You know what, I admit it, I would be interested in playing him if someone could actually make that happen. Well, part of me is. The other part is asking why anyone would want the devs to waste their time on this character.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

WampaWreckage · Oct 13, 2018

I honestly think that this idea is really funny and I'm terribly sorry for all the hate. This is a nice breath of fresh air and people shouldn't take this so seriously. It's funny to joke around and relax for a day!

Chance: 0.01%:
I honestly love this idea and I think Sakurai could do make any video-game character have a moveset, but I don't think he's being realistically considered at all. Thwomp isn't even a thought when people ask "Whose the most likely next Mario character?". Thwomp isn't going to happen, but it's a interesting and hilarious to think about.

Want: 3%
Thwomp would be extremely funny and would definitely be a unique choice, but I think the limited time they have for developing characters should be for reserved for others popular choices like Issac, Skull Kid, Sora, etc. I enjoy this idea, but I feel like the community would give Thwomp more hate than what Corrin or Bayonetta got. However, I think it'd be amazing to have a Thwomp fall right into Smash, I'm a sucker for unexpected picks and it's moveset has hilarious potential!

Al-kīmiyā' · Oct 14, 2018

TCT~Phantom said:
I have said this literally every time we have done a noms purge and posted my logic for this purge in this thread before. But since you were not paying attention, here.

1. Noms list gets cluttered, ideas lower down get abandoned and just stay there with a x2. Cleaning up the noms list makes it better looking.

2. Game is winding down, purging a lot of noms would make it so we can rate as much as possible.

3. Makes people engaged. If they hear that there is a nom purge, they participate more to save their char. Happens each time I do a purge.

1. Who cares how the nominatins list looks, lol?

2. That doesn't make sense. You'll rate the same number either way.

3. I doubt it, but even if that's true, is lack of engagement a serious problem, and if it is, is this the best way to solve it? I think combining boring/silly nominees with more exciting nominees would do a better job at this, as well as not having days that stretch on for two or three days.

YoshiandToad · Oct 14, 2018

TCT~Phantom said:
I have said this literally every time we have done a noms purge and posted my logic for this purge in this thread before. But since you were not paying attention, here.

1. Noms list gets cluttered, ideas lower down get abandoned and just stay there with a x2. Cleaning up the noms list makes it better looking.

2. Game is winding down, purging a lot of noms would make it so we can rate as much as possible.

3. Makes people engaged. If they hear that there is a nom purge, they participate more to save their char. Happens each time I do a purge.

For point 2, we're relatively positive about DLC right? What's to stop the game continuing post launch?

For point 3, to be honest I dropped out because we started rating 'no hopers' constantly.
As amusing as it was at the beginning with say Owain + Yarne or Brash the Bear or even Blue Bowser, honestly most the characters voted for after were as unlikely as any of the gag choices but unironically.
Not much you can do about that as it's the nature of the game but I'm not sure if 'it's wrapping up' will neccesarily make people post more.

Deleted member · Oct 14, 2018

Abstaining on...

Noms:
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

colder_than_ice · Oct 14, 2018

Thwomp
Chance: 0% - There are easily 45 characters in the Mario franchise alone that could get in ahead of Thwomp. It also has a body shape that would be almost impossible to work with.
Want: 0% - I simply don’t want Thwomp to be playable. I can’t say I’m a big fan of these joke characters.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

ProfPeanut · Oct 14, 2018

TCT~Phantom , please don't let this be a double day.

Thwomp

Chance: 0.1%
Aside from being one of the myriad Mario enemies with no real advantages over them as a character candidate, Thwomp has no limbs to work with and floats indefinitely, making them a poor choice for a platform fighter character. Without any special attention or support, all it really has going for it is the one base thing all Nintendo characters have going for them: being a Nintendo video game character.

Want: 0%
You know how most nameless enemies would cause a huge amount of bitterness in both the Smash fandom and the source fandom if they were ever picked as the fighter over other more popular and named candidates? Thwomp would spark a greater amount of bitterness than most, considering how much he lacks physically.

Prediction:
Fjorm: 8%

Nominations:
Sans (boss) x5

TCT~Phantom · Oct 14, 2018

I’m ending the day at 12 since it will be a full 24 hrs.

ProfPeanut

Also no complaining will halt the noms purge,

Al-kīmiyā' . Saying oh who cares if the list is unseemly doesn’t matter when you don’t or have not even tended the noms list, it is an issue.

As for post launch stuff, i already outlined that we are starting from the bottom up with fixed data again. Why rate something with no chance like Merric when we can discuss actually realistic possibilities.

skylanders fan · Oct 14, 2018

Thwomp
chance
I almost always feel a game could use a joke character. But he can't really do anything besides well thowmp.
2%

want
Yeah I want Thwomp not only is he a villain but imagine the kirby vs thomp battles that would really rock!!! (Also it would be worth it to see everyones reactions when thwomp would get announced.)
100%

nominating
box theory x5

Opossum · Oct 14, 2018

TCT~Phantom said:
I’m ending the day at 12 since it will be a full 24 hrs.

ProfPeanut

Also no complaining will halt the noms purge, Al-kīmiyā' . Saying oh who cares if the list is unseemly doesn’t matter when you don’t or have not even tended the noms list, it is an issue.

As for post launch stuff, i already outlined that we are starting from the bottom up with fixed data again. Why rate something with no chance like Merric when we can discuss actually realistic possibilities.

You're implying there's anything realistic left.

Al-kīmiyā' · Oct 14, 2018

TCT~Phantom said:
I’m ending the day at 12 since it will be a full 24 hrs.

ProfPeanut

Also no complaining will halt the noms purge, Al-kīmiyā' . Saying oh who cares if the list is unseemly doesn’t matter when you don’t or have not even tended the noms list, it is an issue.

As for post launch stuff, i already outlined that we are starting from the bottom up with fixed data again. Why rate something with no chance like Merric when we can discuss actually realistic possibilities.

Are you implying that nominations with few votes are an issue for

GoodGrief741 ? I don't see how that's plausible, but if so, I could take over for him.

TCT~Phantom · Oct 14, 2018

Al-kīmiyā' said:
Are you implying that nominations with few votes are an issue for GoodGrief741 ? I don't see how that's plausible, but if so, I could take over for him.

I’m saying that as someone who has done noms lists and everyone I have talked to on this who has done it says purges make things neater.

WaddleMatt · Oct 14, 2018

Opossum said:
You're implying there's anything realistic left.

If that is your mindest what is the point in participating in the thread when you will just give everything a 0% chance... This thread isn't about 'leaks' and theories, I like seeing posts which give actual reasoning and speculation beyond some ''credible'' rumours.

Opossum · Oct 14, 2018

WaddleMatt said:
If that is your mindest what is the point in participating in the thread when you will just give everything a 0% chance... This thread isn't about 'leaks' and theories, I like seeing posts which give actual reasoning and speculation beyond some ''credible'' rumours.

Because at this point I'm just nominating things I'd think would be cool to see. I think that type of discussion is far more productive at this stage. I don't see anything wrong with that, personally.

WaddleMatt · Oct 14, 2018

Opossum said:
Because at this point I'm just nominating things I'd think would be cool to see. I think that type of discussion is far more productive at this stage, personally. I don't see anything wrong with that, personally.

I guess the want section does apply too, obviously. But I don't see what makes it more productive, chance is still a big part as there is still many people who don't believe 'leaks' or theories also DLC should be taken into account. In all seriousness though, everyone can believe what they want as we don't know what is real or not.

RealPokeFan11 · Oct 14, 2018

Opossum said:
Because at this point I'm just nominating things I'd think would be cool to see. I think that type of discussion is far more productive at this stage. I don't see anything wrong with that, personally.

I 100% agree with you. I joined this thread because it's fun speculating about certain characters being in the game, even if they have no chance or are super silly ideas. (Lookin' at you Thwomp.)

TCT~Phantom · Oct 14, 2018

Day over, new day.

Opossum · Oct 14, 2018

Fjorm time.

Chance: 2%
Heroes is massive. She definitely stands out from the crowd with her signature lance, Leiptr, as well as her ice powers. However, and this is a big thing...her time in the sun is waning in Heroes. Book II recently concluded and wrapped up her arc, and signs are points to her possibly dying in-story...meaning her relevance will plummet as we move on to Book III. Plus Three Houses exists, so we could get Edelgard, Claude, Dimitri, or Byleth. Or a popular character like Celica or Hector or Lyn.

Want: 50%
I'd prefer other lance users, especially Caeda, but Fjorm is Nif-ty. Ba dum tss.

Merric x5

WaddleMatt · Oct 14, 2018

Fjorm:

Chance - 1%

FE Heroes is a new mobile game released in 2017, the roster was probably done by then. Also I doubt another Fire Emblem character is in the game since Chrom was added and also because of the fan backlash in Smash 4.

Want - Abstain

I played a bit of FE Heroes but not enough to truely understand the character so I can't say anything here. I will say she seems a bit random though and I would probably rather have a more rlevant character but I may be wrong.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

PeridotGX · Oct 14, 2018

Fjorm

Chance: 3%. I think it's very unlikely we get another FE character in the base game. It's even unlikelier we get a unique character. Even then, we'd probably get a character that likely did well on the ballot, like Hector or Eriphiram. For DLC she's likelier, but in the base game I don't think it's happening.

Want: abstain. I haven't played heroes.

Nominations: CSE x5

RealPokeFan11 · Oct 14, 2018

FIRE EMBLEM WAIFU
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%

Another Fire Emblem character!? REEEEEEEEEEEEEE! Nah just kidding, I'm cool with that. Fjorm would be an interesting new addition to the roster, using a lance instead of your typical sword fighter. She's also capable of cryokinesis, which would be our second fighter to have a moveset completely revolve around ice instead of just one attack (Lucas). I'm fine with new Fire Emblem characters as long as they are diverse with weaponry and abilities, and Fjorm falls into this category.

Nominations: Xurkitree x5 (Almost at 100!)

Predictions: No more stages (at 103) 0%
(At 108) 5%

Tew · Oct 14, 2018

Fjorm:

Chance: 7,685%
Ok so… well, I am writing this after I finished the main text and it seems I went a bit overboard with 13595 words (according to Microsoft Word) (which is slightly more than the total number of posts in this thread). Sorry in advance to all the people that read this mess of a short novel. Since I am not a native speaker, you will see many words or Sentence starters repeated (e.g. Even if; Imo; likely; And/But; While; Though; Then again…). Then again, I doubt anyone is going to read all of that anyway. ^^”

Small addition to the small addition: One more “sorry”, I wrote this text over multiple days and discovered new things through research here and there, had new ideas and added or changed stuff in-between. Could be, that it ended up a bit chaotic and with some mistakes and repetition now and then. It doesn´t help that I am not a native speaker, though, fun fact, this may be the longest text I ever wrote in a different language. ^^”

Small addition to this “Small addition” section: Because I don´t want to make the post even longer by including pictures, artworks etc, I put all the official Fjorm Artwork I could find (including Screenshots from the FEH App and Book 2 Trailer I made) on that site: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/fjorm.html

Mobile Game Content in Smash? No way!
Well, it actually already happened. On the 21.08. this year the Smash Ultimate Blog revealed the Song “Gear Up For…” (is that already a hint? ^^”) from Fire Emblem Heroes. It´s I believe the first song (or any type of content) from a mobile game in Smash and to this day the only. It doesn´t confirm anything, but at least shows that Sakurai is ready to put something from a mobile game into Smash. (https://www.smashbros.com/en_US/sound/index.html)
(Side Note: If you click on the Fire Emblem icon from the song, it becomes a light blue. I checked with a color picker (https://imagecolorpicker.com/) and it´s nearly the identical color to Fjorms main color. I doubt it means anything, just pointing it out regardless.)

Spots in the Base Roster:
To be fair, at this point I feel like we know more or less what the final roster will likely look like. Nearly all “leaks”, including the most credible ones like Vergeben, many theories like the Box theory and other small hints point at Ken and Incineroar. Furthermore Minecraft Steve, Geno and/or Sora and Shadow, Black Knight and maybe Skull Kid, Bandana Dee, Elma and Isaac too appear in multiple leaks and have some hints to them.
It also seems unlikely that we will get that many more characters. The max seems to be 7 or 8 according to the Smash Blog theory, while others suggest less (leaks point at roughly 5; box theory at 2). My guess too would be around 5. Sakurai did state that they want to slow down on character reveals (https://nintendoeverything.com/saku...n-character-reveals-isabelles-inclusion-more/). And I get that. Before the 8.8. direct I didn´t see a single person expect or predict 5 or more Newcomers for that direct, but after it many jumped on the assumption it will go on like this. Maybe he did overdo it, but maybe he is also just trying to lower our expectations again. Sakurai likes to troll (E3 Smash Ultimate start for example) and do the opposite of what he said (Ridley, Villager, Pacman, not too many Newcomer…). But at this point in time I would be very surprised to see anyone else then the mentioned characters appear in the base roster.

Though, who knows, it seems in a few days we might know more. Considering the “new” tags were removed and private videos were uploaded for a short time on the Smash Ultimate Youtube playlist, a Newcomer reveal might be close. This one could either make the leaks even more credible or completely change the situation. Aside from the mentioned characters I will now focus more on possible DLC. And there is even more reason to why Fjorm presumably won´t appear in the base roster.

Fjorm, too late for the Base Roster?:
Similar to Spring Man and Rex&Pyra, Fjorm was likely designed too late. Fire Emblem Heroes was announced in 2016 (about the time development for Smash Ultimate started; http://n64josh.com/super-smash-bros-ultimate-development-details/), released in early 2017 and Fjorm released in late 2017. I don´t see her already being planned and finished in the Smash Ultimate development time. And even if, at that point the mobile market was still new for Nintendo and it was unclear, if any of their apps would be a success. Similar to any new IP. And we also didn´t see Inkling in Smash 4. But I do think she has a shot for DLC.

The case for DLC:
Though we don´t even know if we will get DLC. I honestly can´t imagine no DLC, it would just make too much money and keep the game fresh and relevant. Lately Nintendo has been doing more DLC and in addition they seem to be more interested in eSports now. And if you want to keep Smash Ultimate relevant, interesting and exciting in eSports, DLC fighters are definitely a good way to do that. Think about all the latest big Nintendo games, Breath of the Wild, Splatoon2, Kart8Deluxe, Odyssey, Tennis Aces, all got new content over time. Even Mario Kart 8 Deluxe got a free DLC with a new character. And technically all of them introduced new characters to their game, with Splatoon2, Kart 8 and Tennis introducing new playable characters. They also talked similar about DLC in Smash4, even though Mewtwo was already confirmed as (free) DLC. But I do believe that they probably don´t work on DLC right now, the base content will already be enough work. Then again, there are some obvious DLC choices, like the previously mentioned Spring Man and Rex&Pyra, I guess Sakurai already has some characters in mind. Question is, if Fjorm is one of them, or if she will only be considered after Ultimate’s release. So, what speaks for her?

Mobile game character:
The biggest Pro first, right now she is the most likely mobile game representative. If I see competition for her, then not really other Fire Emblem characters, but other mobile game characters. I am pretty sure we will see a mobile game rep sooner or later. Maybe not in this Smash though.

Nintendo only recently went into the mobile market, but they are going strong. Fire Emblem Heroes alone has a current revenue over 400 Million $. Compare that to the Switch top sellers Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wold, both sold around 10 Million copies (https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2018-04-26-super-mario-odyssey-passes-10m-sales-milestone; http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...e_best-selling_zelda_game_of_all_time_kind_of). If we take a price of 60$ per game it would be around 600 Million $. Not much more. And Splatoon2, the game series that got the first Newcomer, would only be around 360 Million $ (http://www.vgchartz.com/game/153120/splatoon-2/). But the most interesting comparison of course is with the other games of the Fire Emblem franchise. The next bestselling game would be Awakening, which sold 2.1 Million copies. With a price of 40$ on average that would be about “only” 84 Million $ revenue. (Even with 60$ average it´s only 126 Million.) Actually, if you take the top 10 bestselling Fire Emblem games together with an average of 40$, they only get to a revenue of 382 Million $. So, I think it is safe to say, that Heroes is by far the most successful or at least most profitable Fire Emblem game to date. (https://mmos.com/news/fire-emblem-heroes-made-400m-18-months-far-successful-fire-emblem-game) (And let´s not forget Pokémon Go. It might not be from Nintendo and not even from GameFreak but it still worked with GameFreak, has “Nintendo/Smash” characters in them and influenced the Pokémon Core series. And it is amongst the highest grossing game apps of all time. https://beebom.com/these-are-the-all-time-most-downloaded-top-grossing-ios-apps/)

Now Nintendo went even so far to make their own new mobile IP with one of the biggest Japanese app companies Cygames (responsible for Apps like Shadowverse and Granblue Fantasy, both often found high in Japanese app rankings). Furthermore, Nintendo is still planning to continue going into that market, considering they already announced Mario Kart Tours for (likely) 2019 and hints about a possible The Legend of Zelda app.

On a small side note. I know relevance and success isn´t all, but it seems to be an important factor. Here a quote from Sourcegaming on why Sakurai chose Robin: “Robin is one of the few characters in Smash For whose reasoning Sakurai has 100% confirmed. Initially, he wanted a character from Fire Emblem Awakening due to its relevance and major success, single-handedly saving the franchise. At first he thought of the game’s main lord, Chrom, but struggled to make him unique when put up against Marth & Ike. With Robin however we had a mage who was also a tactician and could use swords. This versatility in his weapon choice made him fairly unique for Fire Emblem characters. He was also a main character so anyone who played Awakening would recognize him. All of this pushed Robin ahead and ultimately pulled Chrom out.”. (https://www.sourcegaming.info/2017/05/31/character-selection-smash-for/) Yet, Sakurai is unpredictable and often seems to change the way he picks Characters. But at least in that point in time, he chose a Fe character, because the game the character appeared in was a big success and relevant. And because Robin was a main character in the story and had unique moveset potential. All traits Fjorm has too.

Mobile Game Character Competition:
Speaking of Dragalia Lost, aside from FEH, it is in my opinion the biggest contender for a possible mobile game rep. All other Nintendo apps so far didn´t really have any mobile exclusive or new Characters (I am not sure about Animal Crossing Pocket Camp, but I don´t think there is any discussion needed for that). In addition FEH was and is so far the most successful Nintendo app, as previously mentioned it has a revenue of over 400 Million, while the runner up, Super Mario Run “only” has 64 Million and AC Pocket Camp 42 Million (https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/323556/With_400M_revenue_Fire_Emblem_Heroes_reigns_as_Nintendos_big_mobile_earner.php).
I don´t think any new Nintendo app close in the future has a chance either. Mario Kart Tours probably won´t introduce a new Character and everything else will likely be too late, even for DLC.
This only leaves us with Dragalia Lost and Fire Emblem Heroes.

Dragalia Lost Competition:
It´s hard to tell how big of a competition Dragalia Lost will be, since it only released a few days ago. It did make a revenue over 3 Million $ in its first 5 days (http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2018/10/dragalia_lost_revenue_surpasses_usd3_million_in_five_days), but that is far lower than FEH and the other Nintendo Apps. Though it´s only the start and in my opinion was to be expected. It´s a new IP, it doesn´t have a worldwide well-known name like Mario, it only released in a few countries and so far, didn´t get the most publicity. I think a release in Canada, Europe and co would also help it sell better in the USA. In japan it did pretty well, being 3rd in the Google Play Store and 10th in the App Store. Since I think, if we get a mobile game character, then probably as DLC, Dragalia Lost still has at least 2 months to make a splash (except Sakurai already planned all DLC characters but that is unlikely).
It doesn´t have to surpass FEH in my opinion, to have higher chances for Smash. Mostly because it is a new IP and the style and all characters are mobile exclusive. If one of them makes it into Smash, it should be clear for everyone, that it is from the mobile game. While if Fjorm, Veronica or someone else form FEH makes it in, many might just see them as Fire Emblem characters and not make further research into their origin. (The symbol for the FEH song “Gear Up For…” on the official website is indeed the same as for the other Fire Emblem content. Just making clear, that FEH wouldn´t count as its own thing or so.) Dragalia Lost is also more relevant and still has more potential to sell. Even if FEH gets a character in Smash, I don´t think it will increase its revenue by that much. But in Dragalia´s case it could skyrocket in popularity and revenue.
In summary, if Dragalia doesn´t fail badly, it has a slightly higher chance than FEH. And for characters, I think Euden, the protagonist is so far the only candidate (Yet another Sword User, sigh*)

After I already wrote that part and nearly all of the “Chance” section, new information was published. First of all, after now 2 weeks it made 13.5 Million $ in the USA and Japan (and a total of 16 Million worldwide), already beating AC Pocket Camp (which it didn´t in the first days) and getting very close to Mario Run. FEH is still far superior, but it is now way more likely, that it might beat FEH in the future as well (https://sensortower.com/blog/dragalia-lost-revenue-first-two-weeks).
Furthermore, the director of Dragalia Lost gave new information. There will be Characters from Granblue and Rage of Bahamut (two successful games made by Cygames), further story parts are also Co written by Nintendo, they are hoping to get an anime adaptation with Ufotable at some point (Ufotable is well known for some great anime adaptions of videogames and apps, such as the Fate/ series, God Eater, the Tales series and more), and the execs at Cygames want Dragalia to be the new face of Cygames. If all of that works out as ambitioned, then Dragalia could become one of the biggest game apps in Japan. (And might get us a bit closer to a Smash Bros Anime. I am still hoping… some day.) (https://nintendoeverything.com/dragalia-lost-dev-tidbits-collaborations-anime-interest-more/)
So yeah, if that happens, and soon that is, then a Dragalia Lost rep for DLC seems more and more likely, but so far those are just hopes/expectations and who knows how long it will take. Smash Ultimate will release in less than 2 months and DLC will likely follow half a year later or so (if there will be DLC of course).

Fire Emblem Heroes Competition:
However, even if FEH would be chosen over Dragalia, Fjorm still faces a lot of competition.
So far all the playable FEH exclusive characters are (https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Hero_list; https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Template:Characters_Navbox):
Fjorm, Alfonse, Sharena, Gunnthra, Helbindi, Laegjarn, Laevatein and Veronica. Besides them, there are a few more mobile exclusive characters (Surtr, Loki, Bruno, Gustav, Hrid, Kiran, Menja and Ylgr) but since they aren´t playable I will ignore them for now. (Though Surtr and Loki aren´t too farfetched either. And maybe the Summoner himself, Kiran, but he is barely a character, he doesn´t even have a face.)
I think we can ignore Helbindi, Laegjarn, Laevatein, due to being side villains and Gunnthra, who also plays a lesser role.
This leaves us with 2 of the main characters, Alfonse and Sharena, Fjorm and the first villain Veronica. They all have a decent chance as a mobile game character rep but I would say Fjorm and Veronica are the likeliest. I doubt Sakurai would add Alfonse without Sharena or Sharena without Alfonse, but they aren´t similar at all, so they couldn´t work as Alts like Robin or Corrin or as Echos like Simon and Richter. Maybe as Duo like Ice Climbers, but I would say they are too complicated for that. Alfonse uses a sword and Sharena uses a lance and has a shield on most of her artworks. Then again maybe they could make a Pokémon Trainer like Character with the Askr Trio (Alfonse, Sharena and Anna). That way you have the full weapon triangle as well (sword, lance, axe) and Anna, the Character that appears in most Fe games. But I really doubt Sakurai would add 3 new Fe Characters at once, especially not 2 from a mobile game and 1 with a generic sword.

Fjorm vs Veronica:
Veronica:
Pros:
She was the first villain (thus adding a Fe villain to Smash. Though Black Knight seems even more likely.) and in FEH since the beginning. Making it possible, that her character and design were finalised before or around the early time of Smash Ultimate’s development, giving her a small chance for the base roster. Though as described in “…too late for the Base Roster” I don´t think that matters. Back then it was uncertain how the Apps would do, FEH and Co could have all failed miserably and I don´t think Sakurai would want a Character from a big failure in the “Ultimate” Smash Roster. Granted, Sakurai did gamble with a few Characters, like Greninja, but the likelihood of a Pokémon game not selling like hotcakes is close to zero.
And not only the first villain, but also the first Heroes original villain/antagonist to become playable.
She ranked very high (2nd female and overall 4th, only behind Hector, Celica and Ephraim. Thus being the by far highest ranked Heroes original character. (https://events.fire-emblem-heroes.com/vote2/result?overall=1)) in the second CYL (the first she appeared in), higher than Fjorm.
She was on the first FEH icon.
She probably has the most character development/personality out of all villains and maybe all Heroes characters in general. (Still not a lot or a well thought out villain, but compared to the rest and for Nintendo standards it´s decent)
Cons:
She only became playable relative recently. Her playable version uses a staff and rides a horse, which would make it hard imo to implement in Smash, but her enemy version uses magic and is an Infantry instead of a Cavalry. This could give her more moveset options but also makes it less clear, what kind of fighter she is.
A reason she did so well in the CYL poll could be, that many wanted the villains/unplayable characters to rank high. Considering the highest ranks would get special versions, if an unplayable character wins, they would have to make a new playable character basically. And well, that´s what happened.
Compared to Fjorm I think she wouldn´t be that unique. We already have a Tome/magic User (Yes, he also uses a sword and a pure magic User would still be different and unique, but a lance user with ice powers is something even more different and unique).

Fjorm:
Pros:
Right now Fjorm is the icon of FEH and a bit the main character of the second/current chapter. (In the chapter you also get her for free/she isn´t locked behind the Gacha system.)
She also was the first “legendary” hero and the first Heroes original character to be able to be summoned via orbs. Nearly a year later and there are still only 11 legendary heroes in the entire game, including Marth, Ike, Lucina and Robin. The latest, Tiki, being introduced only a few weeks ago on the 28th of September (one week earlier and it would have made for a good song). Fjorm and Gunnthra (her sister) are also the only Hero Original Characters to be legendary (as of now).
As indicated she would be very unique. So far, we barely have any ice moves in Smash. The only ice Character are the Ice Climbers, who have 3 ice moves, Ice Shot (neutral b), Blizzard (down b) and the Final Smash (Iceberg). If I am not mistaken the literal only other ice move is Lucas´ PK Freeze. [Compare that to the amount of fire moves: Mario (Fireball, Final Smash), Yoshi (Final Smash, though maybe he has a different one in Ultimate), Fox (Fire Fox), Luigi (Fireball, Green Missile), Ness (PK Fire), Falcon (Falcon Punch, Flacon Kick), Bowser (Fire Breath), Zelda (Din´s Fire), Falco (Fire Bird), Young Link (Fire Bow), Roy/Chrom (Flare Blade), Ike (Eruption), Charizard (Flamethrower, Flare Blitz), Lucas (PK Fire), Olimar (Red Pikmin), Daraen (Arcfire), Ryu (Shakunetsu Hadoken), Ridley (Fireball), Simon/Richter (Holy Water). And those are just the special moves. There are more like Mega Man´s Flame Sword and Flame Blast and I probably missed some too. So, 23/25 Fire special moves vs 4 Ice special moves or 18/19/21 Characters with fire special moves vs 2 Characters with ice special moves. (Not counting Kirby´s copy ability, custom moves or Mr. Game&Watch´ Hammer “Judge” which has a freezing hammer and a fire hammer but is completely random.) Such an imbalance, even though “fire and ice” is such a classic, nice theme. Adding to that, the 2 most likely characters currently are Ken and Incineroar, both would probably have at least 1 firey special move. Quite the long Brackets, huh?]
And not just that, she also uses a lance. A weapon no other Smash character so far uses, not even any of the Fire Emblem characters, even though it´s part of the weapon triangle, comparable to the Starter triangle in Pokémon (Water/Grass/Fire).
She was the main focus of the so far biggest animated FEH “trailer/movie” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBVTbzChs6I). That one also shows pretty much what her Final Smash could be ^^.
[Not really something important, but I will mention it anyway: Fjorm so far received 6 different cards in the Fire Emblem 0 (Cipher) card game (made by Intelligent System directly), while Veronica only got 2. In comparison, Marth got 15.
Another small Pro: On the official FEH website, in the “Meet some of the Heroes” section, Fjorm is the default/first Character shown. (https://fire-emblem-heroes.com/en/)
Also mini advantage over Veronica. Fjorm already appeared in the second Volume of the FEH Mini Acrylic Figure Collection, while Veronica only appeared in Volume 4 (https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/Fire_Emblem_Heroes:_Mini_Acrylic_Figure_Collection)]
Cons:
She was released relative late, but as by now mentioned multiple times already, I don´t think that matters too much in comparison to the other mobile game characters.
She barely has any personality or character development. Then again, that´s the case for 90% of the Smash Roster. I mean, Mario appeared in over 290 games and is maybe the most recognizable video game character of all time, yet he too has pretty much no personality.
Her placing in the second CYL is only mediocre. With 5,153 votes “only” on rank 39, roughly between the two main characters Alfonse (37) and Sharena (40). Infront of the main Chapter 2 villain Surtr (62) but behind Veronica (4) and Loki (10). Likely because of her lack of personality and known motives (at least so far, since her story is still ongoing). But maybe another reason could be, that since the winners would get a new version and everyone gets a legendary (5 star) Fjorm already for free, there is not really a need for another version of her. Contrary to Veronica, who wasn´t even playable.

Mobile Game Character Competition Tl;dr:
As of right now I would say that Fjorm is the most likely mobile game representative. In my opinion she has a slight edge over Veronica, but it´s a close one. Though if Dragalia Lost releases in Canada, Europe and Co and becomes a decent success, the protagonist Euden might be more likely.

Ice Character Competition:
I will give my best to keep that part as short as I can, especially because the next part will be “a bit” longer. First of all, there isn´t really much competition to talk about here, which is good for Fjorm Chances, but also a bit sad, I would like to see more Nintendo Characters with Ice powers/manipulation/element/abilities in the future. Right now, I would say the only Nintendo Ice-Characters with a glimmer of hope are Fjorm, Rundas (Metroid Prime), Weavile (Pokémon), Lord Fredrik the Snowmad King (Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze), the Jambastion Mage Francisca (Kirby Star Allies) and maybe Krystall (But Krystall has no focus on Ice powers, she can use her staff to create ice projectiles, but also fire projectiles, ground quakes, forcefields, portal doors and she has telepathy. I only mention her because of how she appears as an AT in Smash Ultimate and because she might influence Fjorm´s Chances, but more on that later.). Yes, there are other Ice Characters, but most are common enemies or even more obscure than the one´s I listed. And I already wouldn´t give anyone from those, besides Fjorm, more than a 1% chance, even Fjorm is only kinda close above that mark) Anyway, now I´ll briefly go over the Ice Characters I listed from (in my opinion) least to most likely.

Jambastion Mage: Francisca: Yeah, I don´t see a single reason that she would become a Character on her own. It´s sad, that I think she is one of the top 5 most likely Nintendo ice characters, considering her Chance is as close to 0 as you can get ^^”. There is just so much Kirby competition with an actual chance. Bandana Dee, Marx, Magolor, Galacta Knight, Dark Meta Knight, Gooey, Adeleine, Susie, Daroach and the list continues. She might appear in the latest Kirby game (which likely already means, only a chance for DLC at best anyway), but so do most of the Characters I listed. She isn´t even the main villain in her game. And even if she would make it in, then likely as some kind of trio Character with her sisters. And she isn´t even the leader of the trio, that belongs to Zan Partizanne. [Though fun fact: On the following official Nintendo poll they call the trio “Francisca and her Sisters” (https://play.nintendo.com/activities/polls/funny-nintendo-families-poll/) and Francisca is the first of the trio you fight]. Also a datamining (that was correct so far) suggests, that the Jambastion Mages will end up as Dream Friends in Star Allies as well (https://nintendoeverything.com/new-dream-friends-leaked-for-kirby-star-allies-through-datamining/). (And while we already compare her chances to that of a Fire Emblem Character, the three Mages wield an axe, a lance and a sword, the Fe weapon triangle.) At most I could see the Mages as a trio Character as DLC, but even that is very unlikely and probably would end up being as much of an Ice Character, as Lucas is with his PK Freeze.

Lord Fredrik, the Snowmad King: He is the main villain of the latest Donkey Kong Country game (Tropical Freeze), which released early 2014 (so early enough, but still kinda relevant) and is still relevant with the relative recent Switch Port. It sold decent and got good critiques. And I would have given Fredrik a higher chance, if not for K. Rool´s reveal. And with Dixie, Cranky and Funky Kong, there are definitely some Donkey Kong Characters with a higher chance. I still think he isn´t impossible, just very unlikely. Aside from the Boss fight in the end, he didn´t really appear at all in the entire game. And that Boss fight was pretty boring too (imo).

Weavile: An ice Pokémon seems like the easiest solution for an ice Character. Sadly, it seems Game Freak hates the ice type. (Or as someone in a reddit comment said “They really gave the ice types the cold shoulder”) It isn´t just one of the worst competitive types in the game (maybe even the worst period, but that is debatable), it literally has the least amount of Pokémon. Even less than the Fairy type, that was introduced only 2 Gens ago (in Gen 6, while the ice type exists from the very beginning). Out of 807 (or 808 with Meltan), there are only 40 ice types (https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/8o6fow/number_of_pokemon_per_type_ranking_chart/). And out of these 40 ice types, there are only 2 ice types in OU or UBER (the 2 highest and most relevant Smogon University Tiers) and both are legendaries (actually kinda the same Pokémon even) (https://www.smogon.com/dex/sm/formats/). The only somewhat relevant Ice Pokémon in the meta right now are Weavile and Alolan Ninetails (and maybe Mamoswine). The 2 ice types I would give the highest chance (still a very, very low chance). Weavile was introduced in Gen 4, the same as Lucario, thus it wouldn´t add a new Gen, but at least it would add a new type. From the 18 Pokémon types, only 6 haven´t been represented in Smash yet, including the ice type (Pure Ice, it really gets no love from any side of Nintendo…) (Also not represented: Bug, Dragon, Ghost, Ground and Rock) (Another reason to choose Decidueye (grass/ghost), or Lycanroc (rock) over Incineroar (fire/dark) in my opinion, cough*) And since its introduction, it always was one of the best ice Pokémon, often the best (not counting legendaries, though even Ice legendaries aren´t many good ones, except Articuno in Gen 1 and Kyurem-Black and Kyurem-White). But most notable, Weavile made it into Pokkén. The only ice Pokémon in fact. But Weavile isn´t popular nor important enough, aside from Pokkén it isn´t relevant, it doesn´t play a bigger role in the anime, TCG or anything. It´s probably the most notable Ice Pokémon, especially amongst the competitive community, but nothing compared to so many other more popular, important and relevant Pokémon. Which is a shame, because I too like its design and with dark and ice abilities and claws it can use similar to Double Blades it could make for a unique moveset.
Alolan Ninetales on the other hand is more relevant and plays a decent role in the Anime, but they already put Alolan Vulpix as a Pokéball Pokémon in Smash and I doubt that would add Ninetales then as a fighter too.

Rundas: Sadly, I haven´t played any Metroid Prime game (but plan on doing so, if Nintendo releases a collection of Prime 1-3 on Switch for the upcoming Prime 4), so I am not too familiar with him and how much The Metroid fanbase wants him. I did see him appear the most often, after Ridley, Dark Samus and Sylux. 2 of which made it in. I also made some research and it seems (Spoiler Warning), that he was introduced in Prime 3 and also died in that game. And I don´t think he will have a big chance, if he doesn´t play a major role in Prime 4. His design and abilities, as far as I can tell, should easily make for a unique moveset. From what I heard, it seems that Sylux might be a really major Character in Prime 4. Giving him a good chance to appear as DLC in Ultimate. But if not somehow Rundas replaces Sylux or so, I don´t think he has a big chance.

That reminds me, there are 2 third party ice Characters (the only 2 I could think of, that I think have even the slightest bit of chance) that I want to mention briefly: Kula Diamond (King of Fighters, SNK Heroines) and Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat). I am sadly not at all familiar with both Characters and even with research can´t quite tell how high their chances are, but I´ll try it anyway.

Kula Diamond: Definitely behind Terry Bogard in Chance for KoF Characters, and Terry already has a low chance. Though she is one of the 2 main focuses (at least it looks like that from the artworks and boxart of the game) with Athena of SNK Heroines, a game that was released about a month ago on the Switch (amongst others).

Sub-Zero: Probably the most famous/well-known ice Character in all of gaming history. Though I don´t expect a Mortal Kombat Character any time soon. Yes, we got Characters from Bayonetta and Metal Gear, but Mortal Kombat is even higher on the brutality level (or should I say fatality level? ^^”) and known for that. He also has competition from Scorpion and I don’t think either of them did well in the Ballot.
While both don´t seem very likely to me, I would say they have better Chances than Fredrik and Francisca.

Krystal as an AT and what that means for Fjorm Chances:
This is a double-edged Sword. On the one hand I think it increases Fjorm´s chances:
Even though Krystal probably would use more than just her staff and ice (as I already mentioned, she can also shoot fire projectiles, open portal doors, create quakes and forcefields etc), she does share some similarities to Fjorm. So far, we only saw her use the staff, quite similar to how you would use a lance and ice powers, the 2 main traits Fjorm has. So, if Krystal would be a full fighter, there wouldn´t really be a reason for Fjorm. But on the other hand, that Krystal made it in the game in some way, could already be enough for Sakurai that he thinks adding Fjorm, wouldn´t add something new and unique. (There also is the small chance that they remove AT´s and put them in as actual fighters. Unlikely, but probably a higher chance, than all the other Ice Characters I mentioned have.) Personally, I think it slightly adds to Fjorm´s chances, as Krystal would have been actual concurrence as a fighter, but so far I don´t think the inclusion of an AT has ever drastically decreased the Chances for a Character (well, as long as the Character himself wasn´t the AT).

Ice Character Competition Tl;dr:
Eh, there isn´t really any “Competition” here. Ice is sadly very, very underrepresented in Smash, Pokémon and Nintendo games in general. We might always have a Mario Bros. World completely themed around ice, but yet there aren´t many noteworthy ice Characters at all. Most are one-off villains, smaller enemies or side Characters. Actually, I think Fjorm might be the first Nintendo Ice Character, who could be seen as a “main” Hero in her game.

The place of Fire Emblem in the equation:
While I do think that FEH deserves most a Newcomer out of all Fe games (considering it is by far the biggest success Fe had and also the biggest mobile game success Nintendo had so far), there are still a few other Fire Emblem characters that have a chance. Though the biggest problem might be the Fe characters, that are already in Smash.

Other Fire Emblem Competition:
Out of all Characters I think the following are somewhat likely for the Base Roster or DLC: Anna, Tiki, Tharja, Hector, Ephraim, Celica, Alm, Lyn, Black Knight, Azura, Micaiah, Three Houses Character, Rowan and Lianna and maybe a few more but this text is already long enough, so let´s only go briefly over these Characters.
Nearly no Chance:

Tharja: Besides ranking extremely high on the first CYL Poll, she has not much going for her. As a dark mage she would be kinda unique, but also doesn´t add too much new, since we already have a mage. Furthermore it´s likely that her trophy got removed because of her design being too “suggestive”. Sure Sakurai could change it, similar to Bayonetta, but considering they didn´t change it for the trophy, I doubt it´s going to happen. She also didn´t play a big role in Awakening. But she made it as DLC in Warriors.

Alm: Alm from Shadows of Valentia, lives in the Shadow of Celica. While Celica placed 2nd (with nearly double the number of votes) in the CYL 2 Poll, Alm only ranked 9th. Celica also made it in Fe Warriors and Alm didn´t. Probably because she is more unique and interesting. I don´t see both of them getting in, Shadows of Valentia/Gaiden isn´t big/important enough for 2 Newcomers and those 2 are too different from each other, to be Alts or Echos. And if one makes it in, it can only be Celica imo.

Lyn: Well, she is an AT. Honestly, I actually think it might be possible, that an AT will be removed and replaced by a fighter version in DLC. That would definitely be a great surprise but I don´t see it for Lyn. He wouldn´t pull off something big like that, for yet another Fe Sword fighter. Though she kinda won the first CYL (technically Ike has more votes, if you combine his two versions), appears in Fe Warriors (only her in Celica aren´t from Shadow Dragon, Awakening or Fates), has the most variants in FEH, including being one of 11 legendary heroes.

Micaiah: I think at this point it is a bit too late for her. Back in Brawl I could have seen it happening. But now Ike is one of the most popular Fe characters (or the most popular at all according to the first CYL) and similar to Shadows of Valentia, I don´t see Radiant Dawn important enough for 2 Characters, nor Micaiah as popular enough to get in regardless.

Rowan and Lianna: Probably doesn´t even ring a bell for many Smash Fans. They are the (generic imo) Protagonists from the Spin-Off Fire Emblem Warriors. Which released in late 2017, but we are mainly talking about DLC anyway. Though, so far it didn´t do that well, at least compared to its predecessor, Hyrule Warriors. While Hyrule sold together (Switch, Wii U, 3Ds) about 2.1 Million, Fire Emblem Warriors sits at roughly 0.62 Million (Switch and 3Ds). (http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/games.php?name=hyrule+warriors; http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/games.php?name=fire+emblem+warriors) Furthermore, both use Swords and definitely aren´t even among the likeliest Fe Sword users.

Remaining: Anna, Tiki, Hector, Ephraim, Celica, Azura, Black Knight and a possible Three Houses Character. All of them have a decent chance imo.

Anna: Anna is by far the most reappearing Character in Fe. She appeared in 16 games (including Warriors and Heroes), though she only was playable in 4 of them (Awakening, Fates, Warriors and Heroes). But those 4 include the 2 most current and successful Fe main games, the overall highest grossing Fe game and Warriors. She is somewhat popular, ranking 7th in the first CYL, if you remove the Characters that are already in Smash and count all her different versions together (https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/cylanalysis.html). Only behind Lyn, Tharja, Hector, Camilla, Tiki and Eirika. And of those I already spoke about Lyn and Tharja and would say too, that Eirika (Sword User, behind Ephraim, the other Prota of her game in uniqueness, relative old game) and Camilla (behind Corrin and Azura in Fe Fates importance) aren´t very likely.
Yet, I haven´t even managed the biggest thing going for her. She is very unique and could represent many of the unrepresented Fe weapons/classes. In Awakening she starts with a Sword and uses a lance as a boss, in Fates she uses a bow, in Heroes she is one of the main Characters and uses an Axe and in Warriors a Bow but in some of her moves she also uses a Tank, explosives, a giant crossbow and the help from other Annas (especially in her victory animations). Since there is no “real” or fixed moveset for her or weapon she uses and it changed in nearly every of her appearances and she already used a bow, an axe, a lance, a sword and more; I think you can give her a moveset with pretty much every weapon in the Fe franchise.

Tiki: She too appeared in multiple games, but with 2 different appearances. A younger version and an adult version. While the adult one is more recent, her younger self is more iconic. In her first appearances she played a bigger story role and placed well on the first CYL (as seen above in Anna´s section). She also appeared in Warriors, is the only Fe Character with an Amiibo, aside from the Fe Smash Characters and Celica&Alm (Who got one because of Shadows of Valentia) and is one of 11 legendary heroes in FEH. She is a Manakete (an actual Dragon that can shapeshift into a human), which is technically different from Corrin, who is a Half-Silent-Dragon. (She also doesn´t use a sword…cough*)

Hector: In my opinion he is the highest placed Character on the first CYL, with a chance for Smash. He is one of the main Characters of “Blazing Blade”, a game that hasn´t got a Character representation in Smash yet (though Roy is in it and he is from the Sequel “Binding Blade”). He is one of the few lords with a different weapon than a sword, namely an axe and he is an armored unit and he too is one of the 11 legendary heroes in FEH.

Ephraim: Is one of the Protagonists of “Sacred Stones”, another older Fe game without characters in Smash. In addition, he was one of the few DLC Characters for Fe Awakening and is the highest ranked lance user on the first CYL. Also a legendary hero in FEH. Speaking of lances, I still think sooner or later we will get a lance or axe user and right now Ephraim is one of the more likely lance users.

Celica: I already mentioned a bit in Alm´s part, so here the short version. Prota of the recent remake, popular (2nd in the second CYL), appears in Warriors (Alm doesn´t), has an Amiibo (one of the 3 none Smash Fe Chas with an Amiibo). She is a bit similar to Robin, as she also uses a sword and magic, but different enough imo to be unique.

Azura: I think we can call her the second most important story character in Fire Emblem Fates (after Corrin of course) (Being in all 3 versions playable and playing a big role). As a dancer and singer with water manipulation and a lance, she sure as heck would be unique. She is also popular, being the second Fates Character (only behind Camilla; Not counting Corrin as he already is in Smash) and third lance user (Behind Ephraim and Cordelia). But I don´t see another Fates Character happening. Promotion time is over, Fates didn´t do as well as Awakening, which got 1 unique Character and 2 Echos, thus I doubt Fates will have 2 unique Characters. But if one makes it, then Azura.

Black Knight: The only possible Fe Echo (for Ike) I can still see happening. A few more and they will have to make Echos of Echos for Fe. Which is also his first Con, 3 Echos for one franchise would be weird, nearly half the cast would be Echos (3 out of 8), not even including the Semi Clone Roy. Though he also is the only Fe Character that has any kind of evidence if I am not mistaken. He had a mii costume in 4, similar to Inkling, K. Rool, Isabelle and most notable Chrom. Apparently, the knight in Castle Siege who used to slightly resemble Black Knight now has a red tint on his armor. Chrom ended up as a Roy Echo, even though he was described as a “carbon copy of Ike” in a Palutena´s Guidance in 4, which maybe means he is a Roy Echo, so that Black Knight can be an Ike Echo. (Which does fit better imo). Last but not least he is by far the most popular core game villain. While nothing of this is a hard evidence, I would say he is the most likely Fire Emblem Character, at least for the Base Roster. But he could possibly also make it in as a Boss. Who knows.

Three Houses Character: Similar situation to Corrin. Corrin was revealed about 5 and a half months after Fe Fates release (and released 6 months after Fates). Less than 7 months after Smash 4 release, the first DLC Fighter was released (Mewtwo) and 9 months after release the first Fighters that probably weren´t revealed before release. Three Houses is still scheduled for early 2019, likely releasing 1 to 4 months after Smash. So, what does all of this math tell us. Nothing much really. Maybe that a Three Houses Character could be one of the first DLC Fighters, if there even will be DLC.
Aside from that, which Character seems likely. So far, we only know about the Protagonist Byleth and the main Characters Edelgard, Dimitiri and Claude. [I would say it´s probably a similar relation like Robin (Prota) with Chrom (Main Character/Lord)] They all look unique, except maybe Byleth. So far, we only saw him use a sword and he also has a “close to Marth-like” Hairstyle and colour. Though Edelgard, who uses primarily an axe, called him teacher, maybe implying he is able to use multiple weapons. Though please don´t make it like Corrin and Robin and give him a sword as well. On the other side we have Edelgard, who uses an axe and was seen using magic, as well as a sword, but the axe definitely seems to be her clear focus, Dimitiri, who uses a lance and Claude, the first main Character to focus on a bow (Alm and Lyn only use a bow secondarily). The E3 Trailer in my opinion clearly had the focus on Edelgard and a bit on Byleth. I think Dimitiri and Claude will play a slightly smaller role, possibly throwing them out of the race. With the Trailer focus and the more unique design and weaponry (as of our current knowledge) Edelgard strikes me as the better choice, but Byleth has a good chance too. Hard to tell with the lack of information. But if Edelgard makes it in, imo it would drastically lower the chance of other axe users like Hector, and kinda increase the chance for lance users, including Fjorm, Ephraim and Co.

The biggest Problem:
By far the biggest competition are the Characters already in Smash. Right now, Fire Emblem has 5+2 Echos. Only behind TloZ (6), Pokémon (7) and the Mario Franchise (7+1 Echo). Counting Echos as fully fletched Characters, it would be tied with Pokémon for second place. While I wouldn´t say the sale numbers of a franchise should be directly connected to the number of Fighters in Smash, it is a bit weird that a franchise that sold maybe 10 Million copies total, has the same total number of fighters, as a franchise, that has a single game that sold nearly 6 times as much, has the second best-selling trading card game of all time, has one of the most successful Apps of all time, is the second biggest video game franchise worldwide and is the highest grossing media franchise in the world right now. (Damn is Pokémon successful.) (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_Nintendo_games; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises; http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Pokémon; http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_franchises) And let´s not forget that TloZ, the Wii series/Wii Fit, Donkey Kong, Game&Watch, Kirby, Animal Crossing, Yoshi, Wario, Metroid, Star Fox, even Splatoon are all more successful franchises with far less Characters. But as I said, sales, success and popularity isn´t all. Game&Watch, Wii, Yoshi and Co simply don´t really have any other recognizable, important Characters. But that doesn´t explain TloZ, Pokémon or Kirby. Those definitely have many more unique, popular and interesting Characters fit for Smash. Don´t get me wrong, I like Fire Emblem and am happy it gets a bit of Spotlight in Smash (though its representation could be a bit more diverse), I mean my most wanted Character is a Fe Character and some of my other Top 20 Chas include Azura and Tiki, but I think we are at a point, at which every Fe Newcomer is seen as an insult to the other franchises and fanbases by many Smash fans and I believe Sakurai knows about this. Actually, in a Famitsu Article, he did say that he feels they are adding too many Fe Characters: “Sakurai writes that he himself thought they were adding too many characters from Fire Emblem, but after speaking with the development staff, he was assured that Corrin would make for an interesting fighter.” (https://nintendoeverything.com/sakurai-on-the-inclusion-of-cloud-corrin-and-bayonetta-in-smash-bros-wii-u3ds/). Though Sakurai doesn´t seem to count Echos as their own full Characters [since they share a number with their origin on the website, don´t have their own trailers or lines in Ultimate (except Richter, but he and Simon were a double introduction) and can even be stacked on the Character selection screen]. And so far, we only got Chrom as a Fe Newcomer and the other most likely one is Black Knight, a possible Echo as well. Meaning there hasn´t been an actual new unique Fe Newcomer in Ultimate. He also was fine with Corrin it seems, simply for being different and fun and Ultimate is a new Smash game with a bigger roster than ever before. So all in all I feel like 1 or even 2 Fe Newcomer with DLC are in the realm of possibility, as long as they are unique.

Fire Emblem Character Competition Tl;dr:
For the Baser Roster I only think Black Knight has a decent chance. At best maybe Celica, Anna and Tiki too, but I don´t expect a unique (none Echo) Fe Newcomer for the Base Roster. For DLC though, I´d say the biggest candidates are a Three Houses Character (Edelgard > Byleth >>> Dimitiri/Claude), Fjorm and obviously Black Knight, if he doesn´t make it into the Base Roster and isn´t disconfirmed through an Assist Trophy or so. Also of course I could see Celica, Anna, Tiki, or even Ephraim, Hector or Azura, or well pretty much everyone as DLC. There is still time till DLC is possibly discussed and made. Smash 4 DLC went over 16 months. A lot can happen in that time, especially in the video game industry. A Character could become globally viral and gain a lot of popularity, another Spin-Off could be released, an already popular and important Character could play a big role in Three Houses, FEH could suddenly drop a lot of their player-base or be discontinued and much more. But on this day, with all the current information we have and with the current state of games like FEH and Dragalia Lost, I see Fjorm´s chances and the chances of her direct competition (Fire Emblem, FEH and the rest of the Nintendo mobile market and other Ice based Characters) as followed:

Chances: Fjorm and Competition:

Base Roster:
High Chance: ___
Good Chance: Black Knight
Mediocre Chance: Celica > Tiki > Anna
Pretty Low Chance: Azura > Ephraim > Hector >>> Micaiah > Alm
Very Low Chance: Veronica >> Sharena/Alfonse >> Tharja >> Other Fire Emblem Characters > Rundas > Other FEH Original Chapter 1 Characters >> Weavile > Sub-Zero >>> Lord Fredrik >> Kula Diamond
Basically No Chance: Fjorm > Rowan and/or Lianna > Euden > Edelgard > Byleth >> Dimitiri/Claude > Other Dragalia Lost Characters > Other FEH Original Chapter 2 Characters > Jambastion Mage Francisca (alone)

DLC:
High Chance: Black Knight (if not in Base Roster, or disconfirmed at that point; this goes for all Characters)
Good Chance: Edelgard > Byleth > Fjorm > Veronica > Euden
Mediocre Chance: Anna > Tiki > Celica >> Sharena/Alfonse
Pretty Low Chance: Ephraim >> Hector > Tharja >> Dimitiri/Claude >> Micaiah > Azura > Alm >> Other Fire Emblem Characters
Very Low Chance: Other FEH Original Chapter 2 Characters >> Rundas > Weavile > Sub-Zero >> Kula Diamond >> Lord Fredrik > Rowan and/or Lianna >> Other FEH Original Chapter 1 Characters > Other Dragalia Lost Characters
Basically No Chance: Jambastion Mage Francisca (alone)

I know some seem weird, like Celica > Tiki > Anna changing to Anna > Tiki > Celica for example. That is because Celica is somewhat relevant right now with her remake. But if she doesn´t make it into the Base Roster, it probably wasn´t enough. And I doubt she will make that many more appearances in the future. Though she still keeps a chance, mostly because of her good placing in the second CYL. Anna is first slightly behind Tiki and Celica, because she appears often, but is currently not too important in any core game and behind Veronica, Alfonse and Sharena in Heroes. But she has the highest chance to appear in Three Houses and in general get more popular soon. While she appeared in Fe games for quite a while, she has been gaining popularity only lately, being playable in all last 4 Fe games (not counting the Remake). Tiki has some relevancy currently, especially the Amiibo, but that isn´t quite as big as Celica and her Remake. Though Tiki is a more iconic Character and has a better chance of staying relevant in the future, maybe even appearing in Three Houses. Since she lives for thousands of years, explaining her appearance in another game isn´t too hard.

Fjorm Moveset Examples:
As an ending to the “Chance” part (yes, that all is only the Chance part, “Want” follows after this section. Sorry ^^”) I want to give a few moveset examples, showing some of her potential. Luckily, I am not really creative or good at coming up with such things, so I will only give short examples for some moves and probably only go a bit in depth for the specials, the final Smash and maybe the Smash Attacks. For the other moves or in general a different look at a potential moveset, may I recommend her great support thread by

rockerpikmin (https://smashboards.com/threads/fjorm-breaks-the-ice-fjorm-for-smash-ultimate.453659/).

In case any of the Gifs don´t work here, I put all Gifs on this site: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/gifs.html
(Only the Final Smash and other neutral Special are too long for the website, so I put them there as mp4.)

Standards:
Here I have a few examples taken from Brawlhalla that could work as Aerials and some other Attacks for Fjorm. (Disclaimer: I made the footage myself in the training mode, since Brawlhalla has quite different mechanics, I tried to only use what would be possible in Smash. I am also not very good (only playing recently a bit) and there aren´t nearly as many attacks as in Smash)

Neutral-Air:

(Small Nair Combo: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179953&vnr=844444)

Back-Air: (could also work as Forward-Air):

(Small Bair Combo: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179919&vnr=878540)

Down-Air:

(Small Dair Combo: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179951&vnr=822950)

The Aerials are rather fast (but still slower than most smaller swords) and stronger than most words, though they go further, they don´t cover as much radius and usually only have either a very small hitbox, or no hitbox at all at the pole of the lance and only properly hit with the tip/Sweetspot, forcing you to keep a certain distance, close but not too close, further away, but not too far. Also I think the Down Air should spike, but only with the tip.

Jab: I imagine the Jab to start like what we saw from KrystalT, followed by this as a Jab Finisher (or however you call that. Alternatively the Jab could also start like this

.

Dash Attack: For the Dash Attack I propose an icy glide, (similar to Mario´s Dash Attack, but closer to skating on ice) maybe like this

, just without the bow and Owl ^^. I would say it should be weaker, but faster/longer than Mario´s Dash Attack.

That´s it with the suggested Standards. Yes, there are some missing, as mentioned I won´t go over every move, alternative ideas and moves I don´t mention can be found in Fjorm´s support thread. (In case anyone is interested, I have a few short Brawlhalla Combos (with “Smash Mechanics”) with most of the just mentioned examples here (there are also 3 other moves. About 1 I will talk in the Up Special segment and the other 2 don´t really fit into a potential Fjorm Smash moveset imo): https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179955&vnr=576299)

Smashes:

Forward Smash:
1) While there is an attack in FEH that could work as a forward Smash, it is very fast and short and the Character picture is too long on the screen the properly show it, so the footage might be unclear/hard to tell what exactly is going on. I edited the video a bit to make it recognizable:

2) Though instead of that, we could also take the first idea of the Side Special, or let an ice spike rise from the ground shortly in front of Fjorm.

Up Smash:
Here I have a few ideas:
1) Simple and basic idea. She just stabs the lance into the air (maybe with some icy effects).

2) Something like this:

just with ice spikes instead of sand spikes. Or alternatively it could also be just one bigger ice spike summoned.Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179975&vnr=233307)

3) That idea would use the owl Feh from FEH (yes, her name is literally just the Initials from the game). Feh is based on a snowy owl (already fitting for Fjorm) and is kinda like FEH´s mascot (no, she isn´t a threat as a possible Smash Character…at least I´d say so). She even has a small YouTube Series called “Feh Channel” where they announce upcoming events and new updates for FEH. (http://fireemblem.wikia.com/wiki/Feh) (And fun fact, Feh was the secret Character in the first Volume of the FEH Mini Acrylic Figure Collection. Though, I would prefer to use Feh in the Up Special, more on that later, so this is only an alternative, if the Up Special would be different.
The idea would either look something like this:

just without the glide and a lance instead of the bow, or like the following, but with an icy/spirit like Feh (Owl) instead of the mammoth.

(Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179958&vnr=817742; https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33183599&vnr=881849)

Down Smash:
For the down Smash I would like to see something like this:

. Just with ice spikes/crystals instead of the sand effect, lower and more to the sides. Basically, Fjorm would strike her lance Leiptr into the ground, creating ice spikes/crystals that shoot up from the ground, going slightly to the left and slightly to the right, but not very high.(Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179966&vnr=711741)

Specials:

Neutral Special:
“Élivágar/Ice Wave”: The Élivágar or “Ice Waves” are rivers from norse mythology (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élivágar). There are 11 major rivers. Fjorm and the other FEH original Characters from the “Nifl Kingdom”, as it is called in FEH, have all their name origin from those 11 rivers. Fjorm, Gunnthrá (Fjorms older sister), Slidr (Gunnthra´s other japanese name), Hrid (Fjorm´s brother, not a playable character in FEH (yet)), Ylgr (Fjorm´s younger sister, not a playable character in FEH (yet)) and Leiptr (Fjorm´s lance). There are also the rivers Fimbulthul, Sylgr, Vid and Gjöll, but those don´t appear in FEH (yet). Furthermore, the source of the rivers lies in “Niflheim” (which sounds suspiciously close to Nifl Kingdom, doesn´t it ^^ By the way, Niflheim is said to be the first of the nine realms in Norse Mythology). Together with the fire of Muspelheim (ruled by “Surtr”) (which too appears in FEH called “Muspell” ruled by the main villain of Book 2 “Surtr”) they created the frost giant “Ymir”. Odin and other gods then created the earth/Midgard out of Ymir. I think its safe to say that Book 2 in FEH is loosely inspired by this story. While the ending of Book 2 isn´t similar to the mythology, who knows what happens in the following Books.
Anyway, the attack idea would be a projectile, similar to the ones seen in the Book 2 trailer. Either like that

or that: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33183653&vnr=161799. In addition to that I think it would be cool (see what I did there) if the projectile wouldn´t make damage/or only very little and instead “slightly” freeze the opponent. Since the Inklings added a “inked” effect to the game, what about a “slightly frozen” effect. Basically, the character is a bit “more light blue” (like a filter over a picture) and has small ice crystals. This slows down the other one for a short period of time. Of course, to not make it too op, you could give it a long “cooldown” (see what I did there) or no damage, or make it only active for a very short time, or slow/easy to avoid etc. There are enough options to tweak it into the right balance. I think you could compare it to ZSS neutral special, the Paralyzer. A projectile without damage, that limits the opponent’s movement options. Or to the Inkling´s “splatting” effect. Speaking of which, I´d probably give a few other attacks of Fjorm the slightly frozen effect too, e.g. the Smash Attacks that use an ice spike/ice spikes and maybe the side special ideas, if they hit close to the Sweetspot, but not quite, or charge over 50% but not fully (you´ll understand in a minute). So, all those attacks would add a bit to the slightly frozen effect, the more “slightly frozen” the slower the opponent and if enough is inflected before it “melts” away, it can even go over in the actual frozen effect. Otherwise if no attack adds to it in a matter of a few seconds or so, the effect goes fully away again. To make up for that, I would give her attacks relative weak knockback or low damage output.

Side Special:
1) “Ice Lunge”: For this special I am thinking about a move that can freeze (actually freeze and not the slightly frozen effect I talked about in the previous segment). First a small Info about freezing moves (so far) in Ultimate. Without Final Smashes and Custom moves (since they are likely removed in Ultimate) there are 4 moves that can freeze (https://www.ssbwiki.com/Freezing):
“Ice Shot”: Ice Climbers neutral special. Freezes only high damaged opponents and even then, the Chances are very slim and brief.
“Blizzard”: Ice Climbers side special. Sadly; I haven´t played Melee/Brawl in a while and the Wiki only says “can freeze opponents very nearby, but the freeze effect does not last very long” (https://www.ssbwiki.com/Blizzard). It says “can”, does that mean it´s random, or only works at high percentage?
“PK Freeze”: Lucas neutral special. If Blizzard has a bit of rng, as the quote suggests, then, this is the only move that freezes 100% on impact / isn´t determined by luck. It still isn´t particularly an often used/seen move by any means.
“Judge”: Mr Game & Watch´s side special. The hammer that has 9 different effects (shown with the numbers 1 to 9), one of which has a freezing effect (8). So, a 1 in 9 Chance that it freezes (if it hits).

Meaning, out of the 4 moves that can freeze, likely only one isn´t random and still not the most useful. That´s why I would want a decent move that definitely freezes. I imagine it looking something like this

or this

a bit similar to Corrin´s side special (Dragon Lunge, the pinning move). But instead of pinning, I would 1) make it chargeable and 2) able to freeze if it hits. Now since I don´t want it to be rng if it freezes but also not too strong, we might have to nerf it a bit. This can be done in multiple ways. It could only freeze, if fully charged, or only if the opponent has over a certain percentage, or only if you hit exactly with the tip. I would go for only freezing with the tip/Sweetspot and making the Sweetspot rather small. Furthermore, the longer the charge, the longer the freeze effect. By the way, her ingame standard attack already has some similarity to that idea, well, maybe without the somersaults.

(Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179964&vnr=650629)2) The second option isn´t really something new. I´d imagine a blizzard move, similar to Ice Climber´s Blizzard, or Krystal´s (AT) Blizzard (can´t add more gifs: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/gifs.html), just with a certainty to freeze the Opponent, if either fully charged, or hit exactly at the Sweetspot or something similar to nerf it down.

Up Special:
For the Up Special I have to rather simple ideas:
1) “Feh Transport”: The first one would work with the messenger owl “Feh” from Fire Emblem Heroes. (I already described Feh in the Up Smash Part, in case anyone missed it ^^”)
The move would work similar to Olimars or Duck Hunt Duos. Feh appears and carries Fjorm upwards. So, no damage but a great recovery (like Olimar, Duck Hunt, Villager etc).

2) “Spinning Lance” (or “Helicopter” ^^): The second idea is even simpler. Just a “spinning attack” with the lance. Similar to that

Not as strong (less damage, less knockback) as Links spinning attack, but faster and with more movement ability and I would say about the same height.(Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33180090&vnr=834393)

Down Special:
“Ice-Mirror”: Ice Mirror is the name of her fully upgraded special in FEH. The effect ingame reads as followed “If foe's Range = 2, reduces damage from foe's attacks by 30%. Boosts unit's next attack by total damage reduced (by any source, including other skills) when Special triggers. Resets at end of combat. (Skill cannot be inherited.)“. Ingame the effect looks like this:

For Smash the first thing that comes to my mind is a reflector, like Fox´ shine but that´s kinda boring as a few Fighters already have a reflector and it also doesn´t quite depict the ingame variant. So here a few ideas, how to make that move more interesting:1) This idea is the closest to the original. It works similar to Ness/Lucas “PSI Magnet”, basically an icy field around Fjorm that absorbs projectiles (or if we want to make it more accurate, it could absorb projectiles but still damage Fjorm, just less % than usual and no knockback) + instead of healing, it buffs Fjorm´s next attack (or for a limited amount of time). And as always, the stronger the projectile, the higher the attack buff. This is pretty much exactly what the original is, very unique and would add a bit of strategy (Do you take the extra percentage for a small buff? Which attack do you use next, to properly make the most of the buff?).

2) In Fjorm´s support thread @Al-kīmiyā',

MacDaddyNook and

rockerpikmin came up and discussed an idea for Ice Mirror that I think is pretty interesting. Basically, it only works against projectiles, if a projectile hits the Ice Mirror an ice spike rises up from the ground beneath the opponent, the stronger the projectile, the stronger/faster and/or bigger the ice spike. (Not so fast that it is unavoidable though.) That would be a unique and interesting “reflector”, closer to the original variant and good against projectile spam, while not op.

3) The last idea imo isn´t too good or interesting, it´s just here because of an attack I saw in Brawlhalla that I have footage for ^^”.

The idea here would be, that it works as a reflector, but also as a regular attack. However, it has more stun/wind-up/lag (whatever makes it slightly worse) than a usual reflector (e.g. Shine) and only works in the facing direction. Fjorm would whirl around her lance Leiptr pretty fast with small icy effects, making it look like a single, flat, reflecting surface, an Ice Mirror you could say. So, it reflects projectiles from only one direction, but also hits opponents that run into it or are too close.(Further Brawlhalla ingame footage: https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33179965&vnr=694335)

Final Smash:
“Rite of Frost”: I think I already mentioned it multiple times by now, but her last attack in the official animated Book 2 Trailer would be perfect for a final Smash. https://possible-smash-chas.hpage.com/get_file.php?id=33180001&vnr=879340. I could imagine it as a cinematic trailer, or something similar to Wii Fit Trainer´s Final Smash, just with ice spikes instead of those colourful yoga poses..

Others:
There are some moves missing, like throws, pummel, some neutrals etc, but as I said I won´t go over all of them. The Support Thread has some ideas for the missing moves and I think I went over the most interesting ones. The rest could simply be different kinds of lance/spear attacks with kind of icy wind effects at the tip of the lance.

Fjorm´s FEH Future:
Ok, yeah, I know, I said the moveset would be the last part, but I forgot something important and I have some nice transitions, so I can´t just put this part somewhere in between.
Furthermore, a small Spoiler Warning for the end of Book 2 in FEH. (Released on the 14th of September 2018). You have been warned:
Fjorm and FEH´s Future in general is very uncertain. FEH is still going strong, but I see more and more complaints, that they don´t add new and interesting modes etc to keep the game fresh (or well, they do add stuff, but I see a lot of dissatisfaction with that). Also, with Dragalia there is new competition, but I already talked about that in-depth. Since I think any Nintendo mobile game Character has only a chance for DLC, FEH has to stay big and relevant at least till a few months after Smash Ultimate´s release. I do fear that FEH might slowly lose its player base, but I doubt that will happen too fast. I am no expert on such matters, but it at least got another year and that is, if they don´t add something new besides Characters.

The bigger Problem I see, is Fjorm´s Future in FEH. At the end of Book 2 it was revealed, that Fjorm doesn´t have long to live (because of a ritual needed to defeat Book 2´s main villain) (Always the Characters I like, sigh*). Though she didn´t die yet. A book 3 is more than likely. As just said, I am pretty sure FEH will at least continue for a while and they do get new content and updates regularly. Also, there is still a lot unsolved and many hints. Veronica is likely going to become good/sooner or later combine her forces with the Protagonists to stop a greater threat. Loki is shaping up to be the overall main villain, likely appearing in the following Books as a side villain, while pulling the strings behind the scenes. Her goal probably being Ragnarök or something similar. Since FEH takes a lot inspiration from Norse Mythology, the biggest and best-known story would make sense as the true goal of the true villain. I have already mentioned some connections between FEH and Norse Mythology in the “Neutral Special” part, but there is a bit more. Obviously “Loki” is a big part in Norse Mythology, hence why I and many believe she will sooner or later play an even bigger role. Furthermore, “Askr” (the kingdom of FEH´s Protagonists is called “Askr Kingdom”) was the first male human, while “Embla” (Veronica´s kingdom is called “Embliam Kingdom”) was the first female human (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ask_and_Embla). This, Loki, Niflheim and Muspelheim, Surtr and the Elivagar Rivers, gates to different realms (Similar to the 9 realms in Norse Mythology) clearly show that FEH takes from Norse Mythology and leaves a lot of stories and realms open for future Books.

Though what will happen to Fjorm. She could die, but that would be pretty weird, since every player got her as a free Character. Sure, other Hero original Characters died in the story too and have a playable version, but all those versions (so far) are different from their story counterpart, while Fjorm is the exact same. If she would die in the story, it doesn´t really make sense that you can keep her Character, as there can´t be any time or portal/gate shenanigans. And taking away a free Character from the players certainly won´t happen. Through the second CYL Intelligent Systems too should see, that Hero original Characters are liked by the players, so maybe they won´t kill them off as easily in the future. Maybe they´ll just ignore logic, which seems likely or maybe Book 3 or a side story starts with the Protagonists trying to find something to save Fjorm. Regardless, even if Fjorm survives, she likely/might not stay the as the icon Character for long. Sooner or later Book 3 will release, maybe they introduce 1-2 or more new worlds, maybe new realms, maybe new original Characters, maybe Beast Unit,s maybe there will be a focus on the Fe Three Houses Characters or maybe they will for once put more focus on the already existing original Characters, instead just adding new ones without giving them a lot of character development or screen time. It´s hard to tell what will happened and when, for now Fjorm strikes me as the likeliest mobile game representation, but the future is uncertain.

I wrote so much, yet I feel like I missed a lot.
~Tew

Puh, well that was a long write… Time to get to the Want. “Sadly”, I have to keep the “Want” part short, or I won´t even finish this text in time for her rating… ^^”

Want: 100% (I would give more if I could)
I don´t think it´s a secret anymore, that Fjorm is my most wanted Character for Smash. Honestly, even if she would end up as an Echo somehow or with a horrible boring moveset, I would still be more than happy. It would still mean I could play as her, she would get some more recognition (even though she is the icon of the most successful Nintendo App, I never see her in any votings/polls and barely ever in personal rankings or discussions) and an Amiibo. Would already be worth it for that Fjorm Amiibo ^^.
(Yet, I´d like to mention, that besides the amount I wrote, Fjorm isn´t my favourite Character in all of fiction or so. There are many I like more, though she is still very high and definitely the highest, who has at least a slight Chance to make it into Smash and fit/add something new and unique. I just like writing unnecessarily long monologues about dumb, unimportant things, no one else will ever care about. ^^)

Design and Personality:
Let´s start with the design. Well, I probably wouldn´t have written that much, if I wouldn´t love the design. It´s main color is exactly the color I call my favourite, since I can think. With the focus on ice it gets even better, as ice is my favourite “element”, more on that later. It´s hard to explain/describe what exactly I like about it/why I like it (especially in a different language ^^”), but the artworks (especially the card artworks), the armour, the tiara, the blue eyes, everything looks just amazing to me.
Not really part of her design. Regardless I also want to mention mythology. I already explained that Fjorm (and most of FEH in general, especially Book 2) are inspired by norse mythology (referring to parts in “Neutral Special” and “Fjorm´s FEH Future”). In my childhood the “Percy Jackson” books pretty much just released and were the first longer books I read myself. They were probably that for me, what is Harry Potter for many others. Since then I was interested in mythology, especially Greek and norse mythology. And I still like these books to this day. While the Percy Jackson series (focus on Greek mythology) is definitely the longest and most famous (including a few movies, but those are sadly horrible…), there are also a few other series from Rick Riordan, including the Kane chronicles (Egypt mythology), Heroes of the Olymp (Greek and roman mythology) and the Magnus Chase series (which has its focus on the norse mythology). (Though if I would have to pick my all-time favourite book/series, it´s gotta be “The Hitchhiker´s Guide to the Galaxy”.)

Personality: Now we get to her probably biggest downside and maybe the reason many people don´t care about her. And I do have to agree, she pretty much has the personality of a baked potato. She is kind, friendly and wants revenge…that´s about it. There is still hope they give her a bit more personality in Book 3 (if they don´t kill her off that is; more on that in “Fjorm´s FEH Future”). Though in her defence, most Nintendo Characters barely have any personality. 2 of the most iconic Characters in all of gaming don´t really have a personality, Mario and Link. Mario appears in over 290 games and is more or less just an upbeat, friendly hero (at least if we ignore all the theories and small details in various Spin Offs) and nearly all the Link´s, except maybe Wind Waker Link, are “Courage”. But yeah, I can hear you, that isn´t a fair comparison, Fire Emblem, including FEH, are more text/story driven games. The personality and story of the Characters make up a huge part of the series. And player Characters are often meant to be silent or not have much personality. And in comparison, most other Fe Characters have a bit more personality, or at least are more special/less generic. Even most of the other Hero original Characters have a more complex personality and motivation. Then again, it could be worse. Leastways she doesn´t have a bad/too annoying personality and there is still enough room to expand.

Her Game, FEH:
If I say that Fe Haters as well as Fe fans will probably hate me, but I probably like FEH more than the Fe core series. Ok, before you all lynch me, let me explain. The reason for that goes far back (flashback sounds*)…
As a kid, I loved rpg´s and other strategy games. Pokémon, Dragon Quest, Golden Sun, Chrono Trigger and Co. I liked the thinking, planning, trying to find the best route and I still would do, but everything changed when the fire nation attacked... Sorry, wrong backstory. But everything changed, with school (Now, I don´t want to go into detail, what I experienced with school etc, or this text will actually never end. Just now that a lot of stress, near constant learning and thinking was involved. I remember a time, I nearly blacked out because I had to learn a ton and barely ate or slept.) In addition to that comes that I have ADHD and sleeping problems. (Trust me, I will get to the reason soon) All that comes down to, that I constantly think about this and that (ideas for this text), make plans and ideas and that I barely ever can switch off and relax. But games do give me a moment to shut my mind off and “relax” in a way. Sadly, that isn´t the case for strategy games. As soon as I actively think about how to play, it´s over. All the rpg/Strategy franchises I once loved, like Fire Emblem, Dragon Quest and Pokémon (…ok well not you Pokémon, you are easy enough, so that I don´t have to think or plan), I can now only enjoy by putting them on easy and going through the story like that. If I play it on normal or hard etc, I am already sick of it for a while, after 1 mission or a longer boss fight. FEH is just the right level of difficulty and complexity, that I don´t have to plan too much and can still enjoy a f(j)orm of the classic Fire Emblem gameplay I like.
Also, well, I like crossover games, but that shouldn´t come to no surprise in a Smash Bros Forum.

Moveset Potential:
Here is now the part, where I want to talk about ice. I already mentioned a bit in “Ice Character Competition” and Fjorm´s Pros against Veronica, that I think ice is underrepresented in Smash and Nintendo games in general (well aside from the snow/ice world nearly every Mario game has), but in terms of notable Characters (Fjorm (maybe dead), Rundas (likely dead), King Fredrik (one off villain likely), Jambastion mage Francisca (one off side villain likely), the rest are mostly less recent side villains, smaller enemies or only have a bit ice abilities/inspiration but not their main focus on it. In Pokémon ice seems to be the least liked type by Game Freak, it has the least amount of Pokémon (less than the relative new fairy type) and is likely the weakest type overall (with only 2-3 decent non-legendary Pokémon (Weavile, Alolan Ninetales, Mamoswine). In Smash Ultimate there are already at least 18 (20 with Echos) Characters with fire moves (if Yoshi keeps his fire breathing Final Smash, then 19/21) and let´s not forget the 2 most likely Newcomers currently, Incineroar and Ken, probably adding more to that. While ice only has 2 (Ice Climbers and Lucas) (Not counting Mr Game&Watch for either side with his hammer judge). (Fun fact: As I am writing this Dragalia Lost has currently a summon showcase for an ice Character (while water element, the skill summons an ice spike), nicknamed “The Winter Flower”.)

But why do I like ice:
Where do I start. First of all, the colors it´s usually associated with in most games, a light blue or white, belong to my favourite colors and well my favourite color combination (light blue with white).
Furthermore, I live in austria, where skiing is more or less the national sport (and pretty much the only one we are usually good at). Skiing is also my favourite and the only sport (not counting games) I ever won tournaments in. (I also like ice skating, but I can´t add much to that)
Moreover, Ice cream is my favourite food (not quite the ice we are talking about, but close enough ^^).
I love cold temperatures and can´t stand the heat (which in my case is already at 22-24°C (or 71.6-75.2°F))
Also like snow and most animals associated with snow or ice, such as ice bears (the first and favourite toy of my dog), penguins, snow owls {side note: Feh [mentioned in “Up-Smash 3)” and “Up Special”] is mostly based on a snow owl. Furthermore, owls are my second favourite type of bird, only behind the ostrich and infront of the Kingfisher (also known as “Eisvogel” or “Ice-bird” in german)}, arctic fox, arctic wolf (with dogs my favourite animal) etc.
So yeah, I like ice. It even is part of my nickname Tew (Tew is an acronym, the e stands for (amongst others) “eis”, which is ice in german) and the main focus of my “logo” (profile picture) (It´s supposed to look like a snowflake in form of a “T”. Doesn´t look very good though ^^”, I am not a designer and made it on an old version of Microsoft Word once)

Well, and with the press on the “reply” button, I am now officially crazy, having spent hours on a text about the chances of a fictional Character to make it into a video game, that no one aside me will likely ever read…………………...^^”

waddledeeonredyoshi · Oct 14, 2018

Fjorm
Chance: 1%
No chance for the base game. When DLC happens she'll likely be overshadowed by Three Houses. Any FE characters we could potentially will likely be based on which game is the most relevant at the moment. However, I really don't see another FE character happen anyway, even with DLC.

Want: 0%
Again, the spear wielder I want is from a pretty underrepped franchise in terms of characters, not from a franchise that has more than enough already.

The Prince x5

GoodGrief741 · Oct 14, 2018

Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Dovahkiin x185
Papyrus x180
Kyo Kusanagi x165
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158

200 - 151

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Edelgard x140
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Black Knight as a boss character x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Zeraora (Pokemon) x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x111
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Daroach x110
Tora & Poppi x102
Sans as a boss character x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x93
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
The Prince (Katamari) x85
Silvally x84
Concept: Cross series Echoes x80
Rhythm Girl x80
Merric (Fire Emblem) x80
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Slime x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x60
Saki Amamiya x60
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51
[Rerate] Steve? x51

50 - 25

Earthworm Jim x49
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Melemele Island x40
Concept: DLC character pass x40
Adeleine x39
Quote x38
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Joker (Persona) x34
Box Theory x34
[Rerate] Sora x30
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Kat & Ana x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
[Rerate] Gengar x19
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x14
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
[Rerate] Porky Minch x9
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Kyo Kusanagi breaks that three-way tie, kicking Snip & Clip and Fire Emblem Three Houses protagonist off the top seven, and he jumps over All-Star Versus and Tsubasa Oribe to take fifth place.

Sans as a boss character dodges past 100 noms.

Alternate costume DLC and Saki Amamiya cross 50 nominations.

Concepts: Any Minecraft representation and Break the Targets & Board the Platforms Stage Builder reach 25 noms.

Will rate Fjorm later, but in case I don’t make it in time, SakiX5.

Deleted member · Oct 14, 2018

We should make a DLC cathegory.

There, i would put Crash Bandicoot between 50% and 70%.

Fjorm would be at 50% due to her coming from a mobile game.

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