Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BlueMagician]

Kazama Jin

Chance: 22%
Jin has the distinction of being the face of Tekken 3, the home console fighting game with the second highest amount of sales ever. The Tekken series has little connection with Nintendo, but Bandai Namco is of course assisting with the development and Pokken is a thing. I think Jin has a slight advantage over Heihachi as well, having wings from Devil Jin - one of the problems with Heihachi getting into Smash was that Sakurai couldn't figure out how to make him work in Smash, after all. Then again, that might just apply towards the Tekken fighters in general. The usual problems of limited Ballot support and being an additional third party apply, as well.

Want: 46%
I like Jin a bit more than the other Mishima gang, to be sure, and I'd like him over most of the others. But even though I like Tekken, I'd be fine if it wasn't in with a fighter.

(Side note: predictions are for base roster)

Nominations:
Rowlet x 5

 

[Erimir]

Heihachi got the Mii Costume* and I don't think a Tekken character is terribly likely in the first place. But if we got one... probably Heihachi.

Jin chances: 1%
Jin want: 0%
I'm cool with Ryu, as the iconic fighting game character, but I don't really want more fighting game characters, unless they have some more unique aspect to them or their game. For example, a more unusual fighting game character like Sukapon would be ok. I'm not excited for Ken, but at least he's just an Echo.

*Newcomers that previously got Mii costume items:
Full costumes: Inklings, K Rool, Isabelle, Chrom
Hat only: Daisy

 

[Aeon Lupin]

Jin

Chance - 1%

He has Heihachi and to an extent Kazuya to contend with, and while Jin is arguably the protagonist of the series, I'd argue Heihachi is its mascot, and Kazuya has seniority in that position. I do see him making some kind of appearance outside of playable if Heihachi indeed becomes playable.

Want - 55%

Iv put a ton of time into Tekken . I'm also generally a fighting game fan as well, and I would not mind Jin at all, as he is my main in the series. However, like Ryu, he'd be changed up so much to fit Smash, he'd lose a lot of what I liked about him in Tekken. A lot of it is directly tied to the system of Tekken, so it's not just a simple matter of just giving him some of the moves he has from the series. And Tekken itself isn't especially flashy, so it doesn't have that going for it when making the transition. I'd be cool with him, but I'd much rather other characters.

 

[Artix]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 10%
Yeah, I gotta admit, Jin may not be as iconic as his grandfather, Heihachi, but he does have a slight edge in the moveset potential, being able to use some of Devil Jin's moves into himself, in addition to his unique moves. The only way I could see him getting in is if Sakurai gave up on considering Heihachi into Smash since it's very hard to implement his moves into Smash (which also applies to Jin, but who knows). If that's the case, then Jin is the second choice for a Tekken rep, but given the roster now has a limited slot, I don't think we'll see a Tekken character made it in the base roster. DLC might be their best shot for either Heihachi or Jin to get in Smash.

Want: 90%
I really liked Jin so much ever since Tekken 3, he's one of my most wanted third-party characters next to Saber and Rayman. Hell, I even made a thread about him just because of how I liked the character. In all honesty, I wouldn't mind having either Jin, Heihachi or even Kazuya made it in, as long as Tekken is represented in Smash one way or another.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Jin Kazama

Chances: 10% I'm sure some see this a bit generous, but I think people do kind of underestimate how popular Tekken is as a whole. It's one of the more successful fighting game franchises in terms of sales and Jin is a mainstay within that franchise. He's the closest the series has to a main hero and is one of more recognizable fighters in Tekken. But that's part of the problem. Jin has to at least compete with Heihachi, who's been every title as the main villain of sorts. Jin's the closest to being literal posterboy for Tekken, but his debut was in Tekken 3, which is comparably the Street Fighter 2 of the series, putting Tekken truly on the map. Heihachi was also in that game and the two before it. And from what we know, Sakurai had actually considered Heihachi out of the Mishimas, albeit briefly. There's also a bit of competition from Kazuya as well, but honestly, given in that 99% of crossovers, Jin and/or Heihachi are used front and center before Kaz.

Want: 100% Jin's my main for the series and Tekken's my favorite fighting game franchise. Hell it's one of my favorite games series period, up there with Mega Man, Mario and Metroid. Everything about Jin's OG Tekken 3 design is pretty sick too. He's edgy, but it doesn't go too far(until Devil Jin, but that's the nature of doing an evil version of an already edgy hero.)He's got some flashy karate moves and Tekken brings some of the best music in games to offer up to, especially Tekken 3, Tekken 5 and Tekken Tag 1. Tekken 2 as well if they work backwards on the music. And if you want something a little less edgy, he does have his Tekken 4 hoodie costume. It'd make for a great alternate suit.

Other than Mega Man X and even more than Ryu Hayabusa, Jin Kazama would be the third party character that would get me hyped up the most.

Nominate: I don't know if we've done Ryu Hayabusa yet, so maybe him.

 

[NintenRob]

I don't really expect a Tekken character, and if we did get one, I'd expect it to be Heihachi. So obviously Jin isn't going to get a good score from me, especially since I'm not exactly begging for more third party characters to begin (and I still think there is only 103 stages, but that's for another time)
Double0

Nominate No More Stages x5

 

[Erureido]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 10%

Jin is one of Tekken's most iconic characters. He was the series's main protagonist from Tekken 3 to Tekken 6 (though he was more of an anti-hero in that game) until taking a back seat for Heihachi and Kazuya to become the lead characters again in Tekken 7. The Tekken 7 story mode ending does imply that he'll be back to protagonist though, so it shows the developers still know of his importance. Jin even managed to crossover in the Project X Zone series.

So despite Jin's credentials, why is his chance score not so high? The biggest reason is competition. He has to compete with his grandfather Heihachi, the man who is the face of the Tekken franchise despite being the antagonist for most of the games. Said character even made a crossover appearance in Playstation All-Stars, got a Mii costume in Smash 4, and even was considered for that same game too. If anyone will be chosen to represent Tekken, Heihachi is the most likely.

But then there's also issues Jin shares with Heihachi. With the tough implementation of Tekken's mechanics into Smash, Jin will be tough to implement like Heihachi is.

Want: 100%

Admittedly, Jin is one of my guilty pleasure picks for Smash. He's one of my favorite Tekken characters, both gameplay and personality-wise. He's a pretty cool character, and I do like many of his costumes too.

I think he'd be a cool fighter in Smash. He's got some cool Karate moves, and he could even mix up his moveset with some Mishima-style moves too. Add Devil Jin into the mix as a Final Smash, and I think Jin would be main material for me.

------

Abstaining from predictions.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 5%
If Namco gets another rep, it could easily be a Tekken character. And if we pick from there, we can pick either Heihachi, due to his seniority, or Jin, due to his screenwide lasers.

Tekken still has its work cut out for it to get into the roster, so Jin's chances are tied well down with how Sakurai feels about including the series, and whether he might want the guy with demon wings instead of another martial artist.

Want: 10%
Despite having few qualms about getting him compared to other franchises, there's a lot of other, flashier third-party candidates ahead of Jin. I wouldn't lose any sleep or arguments if he got in, but I wouldn't go out of my way to argue for him anytime soon.


Nominations
Sans (boss) x5

 

[xleft]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 5%
I think that there are chances that we see a Tekken rep in Smash, however it seems like it's going to be Heihachi if anything (which I totally don't mind).
The truth is that I always wanted a Tekken character in Smash since it's one of my favourite franchises. He was one of my ballot votes and because I wanted to vote for a Tekken character I went with Jin (had no idea that Heihachi was considered).

Want: 100%
Any Tekken representation in Smash would be a big yes from me soo

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on both chance and want scores.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Nominate: I don't know if we've done Ryu Hayabusa yet, so maybe him.

We have indeed rated Ryu Hayabusa, so I'd probably change your nomination, unless you want to re-rate him for some reason. If so, just say [Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa.

On with my rating

JIN KAZAMA

To start, I'm going to bring in everything I said about Heihachi back when we rated him...

Haven't actually played any Tekken games either. (I have played Pokken, though, if it matters). Tekken is also a very popular series, definitely more so than Tales in the western world. Including the main antagonist of Heihachi quite possibly represent Tekken quite well. He has been in games with Ryu before, and he made it. I personally believe Heihachi's chances of getting in are just higher than Lloyd's though. Sadly, I also think that Heihachi shouldn't be Nintendo's biggest priority to add as a fighter. There are simply much better options aside him, and if Geno was the middle of the list, Heihachi is near the bottom. Both come from Mii Fighter costumes, but Heihachi just edges Lloyd out. By how much? Well, just about...

Chance: 10%

Jin and Heihachi fall into the same boat in my book. I feel like either one of them could be the representative of Tekken for Smash. They both are integral parts of the iconic Tekken series, with Heihachi usually being the antagonist since the first game, and Jin usually being the protagonist since Tekken 3. Despite Heihachi appearing in more games than his grandson, Jin, the protagonist usually is the one that represents its series. In this case, Jin would be the one that would represent Tekken by being a fighter, which would leave Heihachi as a Mii Brawler costume (? if they exist still). Sure, we have been seeing a lot of villains being represented recently in Smash, but in my opinion, the Tekken series does not warrant two fighter spots, but one. Jin would fit the bill as Tekken's rep, but once again, as I have never been that attached to Tekken, it wouldn't bother me either way who was in as long as the series is represented. Because of that last fact, my votes are split on both Heihachi and Jin, so I feel like I should rate them the same exact way. However, over the time that I have been doing my research on Jin, I suddenly feel like it is more likely that Tekken is represented compared to when I rated Heihachi a few days ago. The series first released in 1994 by Namco, and has been picking up traction and popularity all these years. Tekken is one of Namco's biggest series, has been released on Nintendo consoles, and was part of a crossover with the release of Pokken, which I covered in my first Heihachi rating. If I could rerate Heihachi, I would put him up higher than what I did before. Sadly, I cannot, but I can with Jin. My time with talking about Heihachi is over, but Jin Kazama's is still ripe. After all, he is the protagonist. Jin ends up receiving a...

Chance: 25%

Because I suddenly have a newfound attachment to having Tekken be represented, it took me a while to figure out who the best representative would be. Heihachi has been in all of the games, while Jin replaced Kazuya Mishima as the primary protagonist once Kazuya turned "rotten" (trying to avoid spoilers). Although the race is tight, I am going to align with my previous statement that these big series should only be represented by their protagonist, even if the antagonist is very much recurring. Once we get the protagonist (and maybe a sidekick), that's when the antagonist should be added to the Smash roster. That's what we've seen with the Donkey Kong series and the Metroid series (but in this case the sidekick is zero suit), and very hopefully the Kid Icarus series as well. Sadly, I don't believe that Tekken needs an additional spot besides one. For that one spot though, I feel strongly that it is deserved. It's just like Sonic's, Snake's, Ryu's, Cloud's, and Bayo's situation; that Tekken spot, if it exists, should go to Tekken's recent protagonist Jin. And that Tekken spot NEEDS to exist. We don't yet know if it does though. Which is why Jin Kazama recieves a...

Want: 37.5%

Looking back on it, I might actually say that Heihachi is a bit more likely than Jin chance wise, but imo, I'd like to see Jin based on the pro/antagonist argument. Heihachi would probably be a 27.5 chance and a 35 want. Can't do it though, because it's not his day. Jin's and Heihachi's ratings are pretty close in my book.

I talked too much about Heihachi and protagonists vs antagonists in this rating and the post-rating. Oof? They are from the same game...

Noms: Balloon Fighter x1, Quote x1, Amaterasu x3

 

[DaUsername]

Not Heihachi
Chance: 0.01%
If we're getting anyone, it's Heihachi. It seems pretty likely that he'd be the first and only choice for a Tekken character.
Want: N/A

Ninten prediction: 10%
Noms: Louie x5

 

[Fire Tactician]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 1%

It could happen, but I can't see Heihatchi being passed over.

Want: 5%

I don't really want him, but I prefer his design to Heihatchi's.

 

[KeyOh]

Jin Kazama
Chance: 5%
Jin seems really unlikely given what we know about Tekken content in Smash 4. We have an interview with Sakurai where he mentions that Heihachi was among the few candidates the team had for a Bandai Namco rep besides Pac-Man. However, Heihachi was passed up, one of the reasons for this being his movements/moveset was apparently difficult to implement. I have a feeling that, if the Smash team does look for a Tekken rep this game, Heihachi will still be chosen over Jin. Sakurai already has a history of returning to characters that he thought would be impossible to implement in Smash, and it seems safe to infer that the same situation will happen here. Jin does still have a slight chance I think, as he is still a pretty important character to the Tekken series, I just don't see him being chosen over Heihachi.
Want: Abstain
I'm not incredibly familiar with Tekken, so I don't think I can give Jin a fair want score.

 

[skylanders fan]

Jin
chance
yeah I just don't see him making the cut. Heihachi I feel like fits more and is more well known. And frankly I don't think we will see Tekken anything in Ultimate's base roster.
5%

want
I love refrences to other fighting games like please give us Mortal Kombat and Tekken charcters but I would rather have Heihachi or have a weird random choice from Tekkens weird side than him.
60%

Nominating
rick coo kine x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 5%
Want: 20%

The Tekken character is likely to be Heihachi. I could see an AT maybe.

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Jin Kazama

Chance - 0.01% - The only reason he would be considered if Sakurai truly values protagonists over mascots. I think Heihachi is simply too prominent of a character to get in otherwise.

Want - 30% - No thank you. I don't like Ryu for over complicating things, I don't want a repeat.


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[Smasher 101]

Jin Kazama

Chance: 1%

I think everyone else has stated this one well today. I think a Tekken character is possible, but if it happens, I don't see them going with anyone except Heihachi.

Want: 50%

Indifferent, for pretty much the same reasons as Heihachi. I think Tekken content would be acceptable, but I have no strong attachment to the series or any of its characters.

Nominations: Amaterasu x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over rate Ninten .

 

[Sari]

Ninten

Chance: 20%
Would be fairly easy to make as an echo of Ness though I’m not sure if he’s as requested as some other echos. The fact that we have Magicant shows that the Smash team has an interest in the original Mother, but I'm not sure if that'd be enough to get the last Mother protagonist to playable status.

Want: 80%
Ness is one of my favorite characters to use when not playing competitively so having another version of his moveset would be great.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[NintenRob]

Ninten

Chance
30%
I think the novelty of having all 3 protagonist would be appealing to Sakurai but he does have the issue looking almost identical to Ness that it might not be worth it.
Want: 50%
I have priorities elsewhere with echoes but I think he would be neat.

Nominate No More Stages x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Jin Kazama pre-Ninten

Rowlet x290
Concept: Hanafuda Character x287
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x260
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x256
Ray (Custom Robo) x232
Linkle x227
Thwomp x226

Over 200

Amaterasu x224
No More Stages x221

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x191
DeMille x188
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x180
Louie x180
Rick/Coo/Kine x179
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x177
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Dovahkiin x135
Reimu Hakurei x135
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Zeraora (Pokemon) x113
Gooey x110
Edelgard x110
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Chorus Kids x77
Silvally x76
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Black Knight as a boss character x70
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Leo (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Kyo Kusanagi x45
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x43
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Sans as a boss character x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Adeleine x39
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25
Concept: Cross series Echoes x25

Under 25

Box Theory x24
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Concept: DLC character pass x20
The Prince (Katamari) x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Stage: Melemele Island x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Concept: Stage Builder x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Steve? x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Blog Theory x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Quote x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1

Rowlet takes the number one spot, dethroning Hanafuda character. Fire Emblem Spear User kicks Disconfirmed characters as DLC from third place.

Concept: Cross series Echoes reaches 25 noms.

Our new nominee is a rerate of Ryu Hayabusa, with 5 nominations.

 

[Erimir]

Ninten

Makes more sense as an alt costume for Ness, given how similar he looks to Ness (dark hair, red cap, striped shirt). I'm not really sure what the motivation would be for him to be an Echo... Lucas is already in as a semi-clone, and Earthbound is not that large of a series and the first game is the least played (and my impression is... also the least good) game in the series.

He's obviously good Echo material in terms of move set and such, but I don't see it as likely to happen because there's not high demand, Earthbound has good representation already, and he's not even visually distinct. Having Ninten be like Alph makes a lot more sense to me.

Ninten chances: 4%
Ninten want: 0%
I'm satisfied with Earthbound's representation as it is, but a Ness clone is not how I would expand it if I were going to. I'd rather see Paula as a Ness Echo than Ninten.

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

NINTEN:

CHANCE: 20%

It's not going to be popularity that gets him in if it happens. This would be a Sakurai decision, and considering the love he's given to the Mother series in Ultimate by bringing back all its stages and including 3D models of Paula, Poo, Kumatora, and Boney in final smashes, it seems like he has a soft spot for it. EarthBound Beginnings also has some recent notoriety for finally getting released outside of Japan close to the time they were planning for Ultimate.

He does work as an echo, especially with Chrom proving that not every move has to come from one source. He could take Lucas' PK Freeze and the rest of Ness' moveset. Yes, yo-yos weren't in Mother but it's a superfluous change. Echos are never 100% accurate to their character and yo-yos still fit his aesthetic well. He also has opportunity for creative liberty to diversify his design from Ness', since an old Japanese commercial for Mother includes a bandana and a different color scheme on his shirt.

Since it's an easy and plausible "Sakurai inclusion", I give it the double-digit score that I do. However, I personally doubt this is happening since Sakurai doesn't seem to simply be throwing out echos because they can be done. There still is a thought process and a justification behind such decisions, and they still require a little bit of work despite being so simple. They're late-development bonuses, not something to come in bulk. There will be a focus on characters like Ken, Shadow, Dixie, etc. that at least have a decent fanbase behind them.

WANT: 90%

I am a huge fan of the series and I admit that I too would be excited about the three main protagonists being in the same game and on the biggest stage together. I love the series getting all the acknowledgement it does. I would still perfectly be happy with a color swap that references Ninten, especially if it includes the commercial design that I mentioned above.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 10%

He's not popular at all. The main reason for adding him would be to complete the trio of protagonists.

Want: 92%

A common argument used against him is that he both looks and plays too much like Ness. Well, the first problem can be solved by just slightly altering his look, and the first one's not necessarily true. Whereas Ness borrows his PSI, Ninten could only use his own PSI. He wouldn't have any offensive specials, but that's not really a problem. In fact, it makes him more unique. Additionally, for the normals, he could use the bat instead of PSI.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Ninten

Chance: 50%
Praise be to echoes, because they finally made Ninten a viable, possible candidate. As the protagonist of the one unrepresented game in the Earthbound trilogy, you'd think people would be pulling out all the stops to get him in.

Of course, you could also argue that Mother 1 has enough moves in it to craft an entirely new moveset, making the choice of echoing Ness an unnecessary ome. Simply replacing PK Thunder with a teleport lik 4th-D Slip would also upset the balance of the base Ness kit by a somewhat drastic degree, making a Chrom-like echo a little reckless as a choice too. And then there's the fact that the Earthbound series is already full of quirky and viable side characters that would make decent candidates on their own, if they weren't all competing against each other.

Visual uniqueness might be the last major factor in play here. Ninten differs from Ness by only a scarf, something that isn't even his canonical game appearance. Like Chrom trying to get in over Lucina, simply not showing up first makes it hard for even a main protagonist of a landmark series to get into Smash.

Want: 75%
My support for Ninten is born more out of completionism's sake that personal history. If I could have argued for his character strengths or movepool possibilities, I'd probably have included it in the above. While he's not a particularly glowing character by himself, I do feel like Ness and Lucas would've been in similar straits if we ever had to discuss them, in a timeline where Earthbound never got into Smash.


Nominations
Sans (boss) x5

 

[Esquelen]

Ninten
Chance: 25%
It has possibilities if Sakurai wants to add the three protagonists of Mother at once, and Ninten could have similar movements to Ness fused with Lucas or the customized movements of Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS.

The only problem is that Mother is quite inactive and I do not know if will care much about the character that way.

Want: 0%
I have no interest in the character.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I could definitely see Ninten make it as an echo. I think the echo criteria is very loose and I expect to get many of them, some of them being Sakurai-based echos like Richter (with him likely being added due to Sakurai's love for Castlevania). Honestly, I can see Sakurai be motivated to add Ninten because of the appeal of rounding off the entire MOTHER protagonist cast. Considering the far extent he goes to find echo ideas like Richter, I say there is a good chance that he thought of the idea. I would argue that he has considered echo ideas for almost half of the cast sometime after the first project plan, finding echo non-ballot-requested characters that would appease hardcore fans of a franchise without the character being a strain for development. Ninten has a solid chance at being playable, in my opinion.

--------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[zeonie888]

Ninten

Chance: 25%
The Mother Series hasn't gotten any new games in a while nor has gotten news on any new ones. Although the idea of echo fighters is nice and it would be easy for Ninten to be Ness's echo. He does has a small chance since there are other franchises that are active and characters to pick from them.

Want: 55%
I have played Earthbound Beginnings on the Wii u and thought it was alright. He doesn't stand out to me as someone I'd main however I won't be mad if he got in and would give him a try to see how he'd play compared to Ness and Lucas.

 

[AirMac1]

9-volt x100

 

[RealPokeFan11]

WANNABE NESS

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Being an echo, he has a small chance since Sakurai loves dumping in as many echoes as possible. But I don't think he's necessary at all since we already have a semiclone of Ness. If we get a new Earthbound character, at least make it an original moveset like Masked Man! A semiclone is enough!

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

9-volt x100

Dude you get 5 nominations a day lol

 

[skylanders fan]

Ninten
chance
I can see him as he would make sense as a echo and round off the Mother cast of main charcters but I could also see them skipping him. He just looks very similar to ness and they may have decided to skip him as a charcter and make him a Alt costume of Ness if anything. But I still think he has a chance
22%

want
Never played Mother 1 so I have no attacment to the charcter but it would be cool to get him in as he is a part of nintendo history.
50%

nominating
rick coo and kine x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ninten
Chance: 40%
Likeliest another Mother character will ever be without a doubt. Representing all three Mother games with a character feels like the Sakurai thing to do. Looking too similar to Ness will be a problem though. But I can see the possibility of a slight redesing.

Want: ABSTAIN

The Prince x5

 

[aarchak]

Ninten

Chance: 0%
Mother is a dead series, and it already has 2 characters. I don't think Sakurai would add a third, especially when he wouldn't bring anything new to the table.
Want: 0%
He isn't appealing to me. I don't think we need another Mother character either.

Nominations
FE Spear User x5

 

[DaUsername]

Double abstain.
Terry prediction: 1%
Noms: Louie x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

...I'm really surprised we haven't hit this one yet...

Ninten(do)

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

[insert 'he looks too similar to Ness' argument here]

So far in the Smash series, Ninten's gotten represented by...a sticker. And that's it. Meanwhile, Mother 1 has a whole stage to itself. Ninten would obviously be an easy Ness clone or echo, so...

But they do look really similar, unless you go with the fanart that gives him a beret or scarf. And there's a reason for that - as described in Famitsu, June 19, 1992 in an interview with Shigesato Itoi (creator of Mother)...

The player names the main character of MOTHER 2, so it’s entirely up to the player to decide if he’s the same person as MOTHER 1’s main character. If you want them to be the same, then they’re the same. If you don’t want them to be the same, they don’t have to. His suggestion seems to be to think of them as the same, though.

...so they were intentionally leaving it ambiguous as to whether Ness was Ninten, but Itoi seems to favor them being the same.

So in that case, Ninten already is in the game! With his hat the other way.

Beyond that, the game series is officially ended. Mother's got a total of three games in the series and two playable characters; as a Zelda fan it irritates me that minor niche series end up with as many series as games when each Smash charater is a one timer when Zelda (19 main series games!) only has three uniques and three clones, and each other potential character is "only a one-off so they're not important despite their fanbase." So no, I absolutely think Mother does not need another character, echo or otherwise. But we definitely don't need to add an echo of Ness who literally is Ness.

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[Tew]

Ninten:

Chances: 10%
Pros:
He is one of the more obvious first party Echo choices left and would complete the Mother Protagonists trio. He probably would be an Echo, but Mother 1 has enough moves, that could make him interesting, or even a semi clone.
Cons:
On the other hand I don´t think Sakurai includes characters, just to represent the major things of a series, or else we probably would have a Pokémon for each Gen, a FE lance user/axe user etc. I think the main focus of Newcomers is popularity this time. Granted, it might not be the case for the Echos as well, but he did call Chrom and Dark Samus “requested” characters. And Richter was included with Simon and a moveset that is a mix of both characters.
While I think we will see a few more Echos, there is enough competition for Ninten, including characters like Black Shadow, Shadow, Black Knight, Ken, Octolings, (Dixie Kong, Funky Kong), Medusa, Hilda, Impa, maybe even Birdo and they all seem more likely/requested to me. (There was a reddit Echo tournament and Ninten ranked only 12th out of 16).
I also think he looks too similar. Yes that´s kinda the point of Echos, but I often mistook Ninten for Ness.

Want: 5%
I would really like to see at least one more Mother/Earthbound Newcomer. What I don´t want to see though, all 3 Mother characters basically being the same character. We already have a similar problem with Fire Emblem and The Legend of Zelda. Mother has other more interesting options like Porky, Giygas or the Masked Man.
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Prediction:
Terry Bogard: 4%


Nomination:
Fjorm: 5x
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[Jomosensual]

Ninten

Chance: 10%: With echos being a thing now his chances are higher than before, but I still really don't think he's getting in. No games since 2006 makes it difficult for me to see a path for any new fighters from that series, especially one whos game released in 1989

Want: 0%: Isn't Ness already in the game? Ok, let me try that again without being a ****. We already have 2 Earthbound characters in, which I think is enough for a dead franchise. I don't think Ninten is really different enough from Ness for me to want to see him in the game even as an echo. I'd prefer Porky before him.

Nominations:
Silvally x 3
Joker(Persona 5) x2

 

[Cabbagehead]

Ninten

Chance: 20%
Want: 40%

I suppose Ninten has a slight chance of getting into the game as an Echo Fighter. He does look uncannily similar to Ness (to a fault, I would say), but nothing indicates that adding a third Mother character, and a second clone/semi-clone of Ness, is a priority for Sakurai, especially with the official closure of the Mother series pre-Brawl.

I'm always down to see more Mother/Earthbound in Smash, but with two characters, four stages, three items, (at least) two Assist Trophies, a multitude of cameos, and a decent amount of songs (with some more on the way, I'm sure), an Echo seems ... excessive. If Sakurai's going to add a new character to a dead franchise, at least go all-out and add Porky, haha. At least he'd be a unique newcomer.