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Chance: 10
Unless they were requested a lot on the smash ballot and I didn't know about it I don't think its happening. seems like most of the roster are based on the ballot
Want: 10
Don't really have much knowledge of Ryu or Ninja Gaiden to say I'd like him in. That being said, I'm not against it as long as the character is fun to play.
So... I don’t think it’s cool to be taking over this thread? Like yeah maybe TCT~Phantom has been missing the schedule but it’s still his baby and it kinda feels wrong to snatch it away from him because he had a couple rough days (or whatever’s been going on).
I for one will abstain from playing until things are worked out. It’s not a tragedy to wait a few days longer.
So... I don’t think it’s cool to be taking over this thread? Like yeah maybe TCT~Phantom has been missing the schedule but it’s still his baby and it kinda feels wrong to snatch it away from him because he had a couple rough days (or whatever’s been going on).
I for one will abstain from playing until things are worked out. It’s not a tragedy to wait a few days longer.
Chance: 15%
While he does have history with Nintendo (Ninja Gaiden trilogy on NES), I don't think we're gonna get him, especially since his modern games are more violent.
Want: 90%
I actually wouldn't mind having Hayabusa in the game. He's like one of the badass ninjas in video game history and seeing him fight against Greninja will be the most epic battle you can have in Smash.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I am unofficially taking over.
LABO MAN RATE WEEK OVER
DAY 130 - RYU HAYABUSA OF NINJA GAIDEN FAME
Since this will confuse people on whether this is official or not (It’s not, but there’s still three scheduled days left), rating for the Ninja Gaiden will last from the time this post is made to Monday, August 20th at 12:00 PM EST.
I found Connery’s most recent Nominee list. I went out of my way to update the list from the time that post was made to today and Saber got the big push. Going from 5th place all the way to 1st. 5 votes away from breaking 300 nominees.
Disconfirmed Nominees Nikki x115
Zero x105 (I assume this is Mega Man’s Zero.)
If there are any other nominees from the list that have also been confirmed/disconfirmed, please point them out.
I’m adding seven more nominees to the RTC schedule.
VOTING FOR THEM NOW IS OBSOLETE
The schedule will go as follows: August 20th - Day 131 - Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) August 21st - Day 132 - Concept: Female Announcer August 22nd - Day 133 - Kamek (Yoshi) August 23rd - Day 134 - Saber (Fate/Stay Night) August 24th - Day 135 - Viridi (Kid Icarus) August 25th - Day 136 - Nihilego (Pokemon) August 26th - Day 137 - Concept Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices* August 27th - Day 138 - Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) August 28th - Day 139 - Concept: Style Savvy Character August 29th - Day 140 - Scorpion (Mortal Combat)
*I have no idea what to do with this one. DK and Diddy clearly retained their animal voices, and even K. Rool seems to have the animal grunts. There’s still Bowser but I think he’s retained the animal grunts as well. Anyone have a video of Bowser if there’s any? It could be made into a double rate day. What does everyone think about this one?
Because of this long period, starting with Ryu Hayabusa, everyone gets x10 nominations. The bonus period will last until Scorpion’s day on August 29th (or Dragonite’s depending on what people say about the canon voices.)
Another reminder that today we're rating Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden.
Sorry for the delay, I was travelling from Canada to NJ by car and had to drop someone off in Burlington. I was on vacation which I probably should have mentioned but since I had no service where I was, what ya gonna do. Also I tend to do days as a looser thing, since when the schedule is not as strict people tend to drift into the thread and participate. If y'all want more strict timings of days, I can do that as well.
Since I messed up, I will keep the x 10 noms in place. I understand that I kept Labo Man (who full disclosure I was going to give double zeros) on way too long. I mess up sometimes.
Went through the noms list, it looks good, post would have been out earlier if I was not double checking them. Some concerns though. I do personally think Canon DK Voice lines has been deconfirmed via the K Rool trailer, and I would be willing to let some of those noms go to other ideas. I also feel Kamek is dead since we got Mushroom Kingdom U coming as well. If people would wish to have them rated or move those noms towards something else, I would oblige. Normally I do not like to do this, but since I have lagged behind I am in a generous mood.
Next, calcs and the front page.
To make a long story short, I have been super busy this summer. I already talked about my dog getting on in years (he is fine, taking him to the vet next week), but I also got sick and got a job. As such, I have not had much time to just sit down and get most of them done. But, I think I can get most of them done today. As a result, the front page will be updated completely soon. Ashley, Mimikyu, and Shovel Knight will all be added to the Graveyward. I personally see Captain Toad as deconfirmed but I would like some feedback on that. If you all think that the good Captain is deconfirmed I will add him to the Graveyard. Tingle could also be put in the Graveyard but due to the fact that Tingle exists in two different artstyles, I feel we can give him a pass. Feedback on that is welcome.
I go back to school on the 3rd, so I can do a lot more maintenance then. One thing I feel we could do are structured days for a week. After feedback I received from the month of rerates, I would not want to rerate too many things. As of now, candidates for a rerate include Isaac, Skull Kid, Shadow, Isabelle, Geno, and Banjo Kazooie. I also feel that given Shovel Knight's assist trophy having mixed signals for Shantae, we could rerate her. However, I want to give the floor to you guys. Do you feel that there are characters that after the 8/8 direct that we could do structured days for? If we did, we would only do 7 in order to not clog up the thread. Please below leave your feedback in the thread or PM me.
Finally, just wanna talk about the thread. To make a long story short, no I am not going anywhere. However, I do know that sometimes I might need help. In the past, I did talk to a few people about an RTC team, but that ended up not coming to fruition for the most part, mostly due to myself never following up on it. Wyoming
has been a big help with the nominations list, but I feel that I could use a couple more people to help me out in case I disappear again. So, I will reach out to a couple of people that are frequent posters in this thread who I feel would be a good fit for this. My decision making process will primarily be based on thread contributions and discussion, as I feel that that is the biggest driving force of the thread. If you feel you could be a good fit, pm me with why. However, do note that I do not want a large team. At most I would want say 6 people. As such, if you do not make the cut I do not want any hard feelings.
Tecmo is probably the last big Japanese publisher not to have a rep in Smash yet. And they should, Tecmo has probably been the most supportive companies during the Wii U era and continue to do so, mostly through Warriors games.
Hayabusa himself is probably the most recognized character from Tecmo. Appearing in 2 Ninja Gaiden series, one on the NES and the reboot hack n slash starting with the Xbox. Not to mention he's a main character in the Dead or Alive franchise. And most recently you can get armor kits based off the Hayabusa ninjas in Nioh and even fight an ancestor of Ryu as a bonus boss. And has been for about 30 years now.
I will be upfront, Hayabusa has flown surprisingly under the radar of the Smash community as a whole and for whatever reason Smash fans are not Ninja Gaiden/DOA fans. And with the fan service-y tone of Ultimate, Hayabusa probably won't make it in.
That said Hayabusa is a badass Ninja with all sorts of movesets to pull from. A cool design. And the Izuna drop one of the coolest attacks in action games. He's easily my most wanted 3rd party character.
I'm gonna have to hold off on giving a proper rating to the Ninja Gaiden. I've never touched the series and my only familiarity of him was through an episode of AVGN.
Just gonna post updated scores throughout the day. Also posting previously posted ones for everyone to see Also the archive shall be up to date as well.
K. Rool
63.04% Chance (Previously 48.49%)
78.26% Want (Previously 73.57%)
Andy
9.27% Chance (Previously 9.49%)
47.09% Want (Previously 50.20%)
In terms of the game plan, the primary objective today is calcs. Expect the rerate calcs to be done first, with a trickle of newer calcs after. The satisfaction ratings are not a priority at the moment, so they shall be postponed for a little bit. The main goals today shall be the graveyard and chance orderings.
In terms of you guys, rated characters of Tingle and Ganon could be added to the graveyard. Also the ideas of Canon Voice lines for DK Diddy Bowser and K Rool seems dead, as does Kamek. Should those two be in the graveyard and should we shelve those days? I would allow noms to be transferred to other days for the individuals who primarily nommed those ideas.
Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?
Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.
Also so I don't miss out on a day.
Ryu Hayabusa
35% Chance
TBH he feels like the last missing piece for NES third party representation. Ninja Gaiden is a classic and is totally a perfect choice for representation in Smash. Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja have good relations with Nintendo, with Nintendo allowing them to make Hyrule and FE warriors. Ryu Makes a lot of sense in this regard, he's an iconic character of Nintendo history from a company that has good relations w Nintendo.
80% Want
While not the biggest Ninja Gaiden fan, I feel the series would fit well in Smash. I would love to see it due to how well it would complete the NES section of representation alongside Excitebiker.
Nominating Ninten x 5 (I dont get extra noms until I am caught up)
Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.
I’d also consider Tails along with Shadow (even if Shadow has a higher chance, they’re both battling for Sonic rep 2) and Dixie along with Isabelle (super popular potential echoes).
Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.
I get it. I’d love to get more concepts up. I feel there’d be more to talk about than “literally who? 0% chance/want.”
On that note...
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%
Nope, don’t know this one either. And he’s been around since NES?
What is it with “this character is the mascot of company X” when said character is not exactly a household name?
He seems pretty generic, especially since Sheik’s entire moveset is ‘generic ninja.’ And otherwise, I’m not really interested. I’ll take Volga from Hyrule Warriors as a Koei OC first.
Nom: I want to do a concept, but I don’t have any good ideas now, so I’ll be hypocritical and stick with Dovahkiin x10. Once I think of a good one, I’ll throw it in.
Yeah sorry for not keeping up tabs on nominations on a daily basis. Since E3 I felt this game took a hit in fun. Not because of the people here, but the sparse amount of newcomer slots and echoes dominating discussion means there's far less characters with a viable chance to be discussed in interesting ways.
I feel similarly. It seems like anyone with even middling drawbacks has almost no chance to be playable in Ultimate. Meanwhile, the doors on other cameo appearances like Assist Trophies and boss appearances seem a lot more open after the August 8 Direct, but people have yet to be used to the idea of strongly supporting non-fighter representation.
Hope the schedule can get moving on time soon. We've had more delayed days that punctual ones this past month.
When it comes to Koei Tecmo, Ryu Hayabasa is their widely known mascot of sorts. Ryu's most famous appearances is of the NES trilogy. Koei Tecmo has a close enough relationship with Nintendo helping out on titles like Fire Emblem Warriors and Hyrule Warriors that Sakurai negotiating with the company for Ryu would be relatively easy. After all, Koei Tecmo's Fatal Frame managed to get trophy content in Smash 3DS/Wii U, communication for Ryu would be just one simple step away. That said, I am unsure about him being chosen, even if his franchise is globally popular. I see bigger 3rd party IPs like Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, and Professor Layton's characters being chosen for characters before him due to those characters having notable ballot demand. That said, Ryu could still be chosen, should Sakurai aim to have a goal adding as many big Japanese third party icons as he can for Ultimate. And Ryu is one of those icons that could happen.
I do not see moveset potential as a problem, should Greninja and Sheik make it difficult for Sakurai to create a moveset. As someone who personally played Ninja Gaiden to its end on the NES mini, he has a variety of weapons that he could use that could easily distinguish him from characters of similar archetypes. Jaguar360
has a solid argument on the matter, detailing the number of different weapons he could use in battle:
"Sheik and Greninja are ninjas. Do we need a another one?
When was having too many ninjas ever a bad thing? But Ryu has access to various tools such as the Windmill Shuriken, and bow and arrows, Various melee weapons such as the Eclipse Scythe, Kusarigama, and Nunchucks. aswell as magical Ninpo abilities. He also has unique hand to hand techniques from the DOA games such as the Izuna drop. Sheik and Greninja also currently follow the speedy combo character archetype, whereas Hayabusa can be more of an all-rounder or power character who plays much differently.
His primary weapon is a sword. We have enough sword wielders!
None of the sword wielders use a Katana and, as shown in DOA Hayabusa is incredibly proficient in hand-to-hand combat. His other weapon choices from Ninja Gaiden also make him unique."
Ryu Hayabasa has a decent chance of happening. I would not underestimate the character's chances.
If we can get NG music like Unbreakable Determination in Smash, that would be great!
Chance: 5%
We already got a new third party so it's a bit difficult for another at the moment. Ryu is a NES/Arcade era icon who survived into Dead or Alive, but I don't know how many request he got for Smash.
Want: 35%
He'd be a different ninja from Sheik and Greninja, but also fairly standard. Not that that's bad, though.
Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?
Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.
I have no problem with the selection itself but I think there needs to be more rerates done at once, we don't know how much time we have before Sakurai reveals the whole base roster.
I recognize he's an icon, but the demand is non existent and I think Simon and Richter may be our only base game third parties, unless we get Geno. Also not a fan of the character.
Chance: 1% - Always a chance, I suppose. I don't think the demand for him compares to the likes of many other 3rd Party candidates, such as Banjo & Kazooie, Ray-Man, etc. Plus, I think the only 3rd Party with a chance to join the roster for now is Geno, seeing as how Square Enix is already being worked with again to bring Cloud back. With Sakurai working with Sega, Capcom, Bandai Namco, Square Enix, and now Konami again, I'd say he's probably stretched thin with how many 3rd Party companies he can successfully make a deal with.
Want: 0% - No interest.
Nominations: All to Deconfimed Character DLC. Still don't know if it's x10 or x5 now, but whatever.
Want: 100%
My new #1 request now that Simon has been confirmed. Like, action platforming icons of the NES/SNES era are generally at the top of my requests wheelhouse. Pretty much anyone from Super Mario Crossover is a huge want for me.
Chance: 10%
I think he SHOULD be higher than this. He's in the same pantheon as Simon, and, unlike Simon, his franchise actually had a huge revival on more modern consoles. And he's still and active participant in his company's fighting game series. So he's not just an NES nostalgia pick.
Unfortunately, I just don't see the support for him. Don't see him on a lot of request lists. So I'm gonna have to rate his chances fairly low.
Chance: 30%
He, Mega Man and Simon are of the same kin. He’s really the last huge NES icon left. Plus I’m seeing much more demand for him now than for Simon pre-Verg.
Want: 100%
When you beat the Ninja Gaiden trilogy, it’s because you love it. If you don’t, you give up.
Chance: 10%
Probably the last classic NES third party left but he faces major competition from third party characters who have more popularity (Banjo/Rayman) and/or are more well known. (Leon)
Chance: 25%
one of the 3rd party classics but with current standings its really hard to say if we are going to get other 3rd parties. I did not want to give hima higher score just because with the hype and mystery behind the development times. DLC perhaps.
want: 60%
if they go with the NES one its going to be a very very technical fighter maybe even more so than sheik if he can block projectiles.
Koei Tecmo certainly has a good relationship with Nintendo and is to me the most likely company to have a character next. Unfortunately based on the likely fact that newcomer theme for the base is fanservice(not the xtreme beach volley ball kind ), I didn't see Ryu mentioned that much at all. But perhaps DLC will give him a chance.
Wonder Red Prediction: 6.75%
Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x10
For Rerates TCT~Phantom
, I also suggest adding in the characters with DLC Mii Costumes not confirmed yet as well.
Haven't played to any of his games, blablabla.
One thing I can say however is that, unlike all of the third-party series present in Smash, Ninja Gaiden hasn't made that much of an impact in gaming by comparison, and that might prevent him to gain in popularity among the remaining possible guest candidates.
Just gonna post updated scores throughout the day. Also posting previously posted ones for everyone to see Also the archive shall be up to date as well.
K. Rool
63.04% Chance (Previously 48.49%)
78.26% Want (Previously 73.57%)
Andy
9.27% Chance (Previously 9.49%)
47.09% Want (Previously 50.20%)
In terms of the game plan, the primary objective today is calcs. Expect the rerate calcs to be done first, with a trickle of newer calcs after. The satisfaction ratings are not a priority at the moment, so they shall be postponed for a little bit. The main goals today shall be the graveyard and chance orderings.
In terms of you guys, rated characters of Tingle and Ganon could be added to the graveyard. Also the ideas of Canon Voice lines for DK Diddy Bowser and K Rool seems dead, as does Kamek. Should those two be in the graveyard and should we shelve those days? I would allow noms to be transferred to other days for the individuals who primarily nommed those ideas.
Also, what are your thoughts of this as a fixed schedule in the future?
Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Shadow
Isabelle
Skull Kid
Geno
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
This rn seems like a strong fixed schedule for a week, but I could see some other characters making it. What do you guys think? Give feedback. For the record, we would do this after Scorpions Day.
Also so I don't miss out on a day.
Ryu Hayabusa
35% Chance
TBH he feels like the last missing piece for NES third party representation. Ninja Gaiden is a classic and is totally a perfect choice for representation in Smash. Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja have good relations with Nintendo, with Nintendo allowing them to make Hyrule and FE warriors. Ryu Makes a lot of sense in this regard, he's an iconic character of Nintendo history from a company that has good relations w Nintendo.
80% Want
While not the biggest Ninja Gaiden fan, I feel the series would fit well in Smash. I would love to see it due to how well it would complete the NES section of representation alongside Excitebiker.
Nominating Ninten x 5 (I dont get extra noms until I am caught up)
I agree that the canon voice thing for the DK creatures and Bowser seems dead in the water, and so doesn’t Kamek. For what it’s worth, nobody’s nominated them since the day of the Direct. Another character that could be disconfirmed is Viridi, who’s been shown in Reset Bomb Forest.
Chance - 17.5% - As far as classic NES games go, this was one of the big ones. It may not have made the splash that certain games did, but Ninja Gaiden is still remembered for teaching us how hard NES games would be, especally becasue of those darn hawks knocking us into pits one too many times. The company that owns him is also on fairly good terms with Nintendo right now. Sadly, support for him doesn't seem super-massive, so it's more up to Sakurai to reconize him.
Want - 75% - I can respect his inclusion. I'm not quite a "no third parties" guy, but I do have somewhat high standards for inclusion. He matches what I want, so I can let him in no problem.
Predictions
Wonder Red - 2.23% - The game was a flop, athough well aclaimed.
Chances 5%: Even though he got his start on a Nintendo console; There are more relevant characters to add that are first party. I'd also say Banjo & Kazooie is more likely and a bit more deserving.
Want 65%: I'd really like Ryu Hayabusa but, with so few spots left; I don't think he's the best choice this time around.
The Cooler Ryu
Chance: 5%
Not really the most popular choice for a new third party, but it's still possible.
Want: 50%
He seems like he'd fit in, but I don't really care if he gets in or not.
Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Sure I guess? I know people have been taking things as hints
Shadow
I'd recommend being rated with Ken
Isabelle
I saw someone mention being rated with Dixie, I agree
Skull Kid
Yep, by far the biggest topic of discussion since the direct and I think a day alone is justified
Geno
I don't think he really needs a day of his own, or necessarily a day at all. But if he's just here because fan favourite, then maybe couple with Bandana Dee?
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Why?
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
I'd like to rate them again, but I'm not sure it's really needed.
Also I'd love to see more concept nomination rise up, especially the one I'm currently nominating of no more stages.
Ninja Gaiden is pretty notable, particularly for the NES classics, so he definitely has a little chance because of that. Not really the most requested third party though, and in general I feel like there's plenty of them that would be picked over Hayabusa, assuming we even get any more.
Want: 50%
Indifferent. Like several others before him, he's a third party I have no real connection to personally, but is a big and interesting enough name for me to say "sure, why not?"
Nominations: No More Stages x10
Isaac and Felix (Echo)
Sure I guess? I know people have been taking things as hints
Shadow
I'd recommend being rated with Ken
Isabelle
I saw someone mention being rated with Dixie, I agree
Skull Kid
Yep, by far the biggest topic of discussion since the direct and I think a day alone is justified
Geno
I don't think he really needs a day of his own, or necessarily a day at all. But if he's just here because fan favourite, then maybe couple with Bandana Dee?
Banjo Kazooie and Steve
Why?
Rex and Pyra / Elma double day
I'd like to rate them again, but I'm not sure it's really needed.
Also I'd love to see more concept nomination rise up, especially the one I'm currently nominating of no more stages.
Banjo Kazooie and Steve are probably because of Vergeben being proven right on Belmont. Since he also leaked Minecraft content, a Microsoft character seems likely.
I would want him more if Greninja were cut. His percentage would also be higher if it weren't influenced by the probability of him being based on games from Ninja Gaiden II onward, in which he is more violent than I want in Smash. He is also absurdly powerful in the later games, and it wouldn't make much sense for him to compete with the other characters (not that it makes sense for him to fight in DOA either).
I've heard many times (maybe from the same person?) that Ryu can do everything Takamaru can do and better. From looking over the gameplay in his games before Ninja Gaiden II, it seems like his relatively unique attacks are a sword strike that creates vacuum blades, and ninpo spells that create ice or lightning. In addition, while both Ryu and Takamaru can use fireballs as projectiles, only Ryu can use them as a revolving shield. However, I'm not aware of Ryu being able to turn invisible. In addition, I find both of their character designs fairly boring.
While it's true that Takamaru has the advantage of being first party, that should not affect want percentages.
For me, the main reasons I rate Ryu so lowly are his violence, Greninja (and somewhat Sheik) already being ninja in SSBU, and his relatively boring character design.
Nominations:
FE Spear User x10
* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
Ryu Hayabusa:
Chance: 10%
Ninja Gaiden has been one of those classic NES series, but sort of trailed off in popularity in recent generations of games, and Ryu (Hayabusa, not this ) mainly shows up in Dead or Alive since they're both Tecmo/Koei games. Either way, he's an old gaming veteran and plenty of ninja skills available to him, but he's not exactly one of the most requested characters I can think of. Simply put, I don't think he's all that likely for Ultimate.
Want: 35%
Relatively neutral on Hayabusa. I've never played any of the Ninja Gaiden games. But I guess if he ever showed up one day, he'd be a neat throwback character to see in Smash Bros like Simon or Mega Man. But I don't think he's necessary.
Nominations: Gyromite Stage X5
Yu Narukami X5
), I didn't see Ryu mentioned that much at all. But perhaps DLC will give him a chance.
) mainly shows up in Dead or Alive since they're both Tecmo/Koei games. Either way, he's an old gaming veteran and plenty of ninja skills available to him, but he's not exactly one of the most requested characters I can think of. Simply put, I don't think he's all that likely for Ultimate.