Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Spyro, pre-Mimikyu

Sylux x247
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x245
Urban Champion x240
Travis Touchdown x239
Mipha x238
Agumon x236
Dark Samus x235

Over 200:

Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x230
Lip x227
Pyra/Mythra x222
Masked Link x218
Excitebiker x213
Gengar x200
Concept: Skyrim representation x200

199-150

Cranky Kong x194
Kamek x188
Wonder Red x187
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x185
Parabo & Satebo x174
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x169
Linkle x155
Lloyd Irving x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Papyrus x148
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Steve x140
Neku Sakaruba x139
Sable Prince x138
Sakura Shinguji x138
Tingle x138
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x135
Thwomp x129
Tetra x122
Katrielle Layton x120
Scorpion x118
Tsubasa Oribe x115
Lara Croft x114
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Django x105
Slippy Toad x100

99-75

Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x97
Barbara x93
2B x91
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x83
DeMille x83
Labo-related character x81
Veteran: Corrin x79
Fjorm x75
Klonoa x75
Primarina x75

74-50

Smash Run x74
Veronica x73
Ray x73
Stage: New Donk City x70
Leon Kennedy x70
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x67
Balloon Fighter x67
Arcade Bunny x65
Starfy x64
Zeraora (Pokémon) x63
Tails x55
Gooey x54
Tora & Poppi x52
Dragonite x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x50
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x50
[Rerate] King K. Rool x50
Concept: Monster Hunter character x50


49-30:

Toon Zelda x49
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Louie x40
Slime x39
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Breidablik Item x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
9-Volt x31
Concept: Transformation characters x30
Concept: Female Announcer x30
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x30
Eevee x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Endou Mamoru x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
T-Rex x25

24 and less:

Nikki x20
Meowth x20
Solaire x18
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x18
Yu Narakumi x17
Neptune x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x10
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Ninten x7
Black Mage x6
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x5
Concept: Boss Battles x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Mushashi x5
Concept: 16-Player Smash x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

Sylux takes the lead!
Excitebiker, and Skyrim break 200 noms
Slippy breaks 100 noms
Corrin, and Primarina break 75 noms
Dragonite, FE Switch Protag, K. Rool, Monster Hunter, and Pikmin newcomer break 50 noms
Rex & Pyra, Eevee, and T-Rex break 25 noms
New addition: a concept about a 16-player smash mode (x5)

 

[ZealousGamer]

Mimikyu

Chance 25%: Has a chance but not as likely as a Grass starter or Gen 8.

Want 5%: I really don't like Mimikyu. If we were to get a new Pokemon rep; I'd rather have Pokemon Trainer return (but represent Gen 2) or even Sceptile.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Mimikyu
Chance: 55%
Want: 20%

Funky Kong Prediction: 11.01%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Mimikyu
Chance- 30%
Very popular pokemon, one of the most recognizable from gen 7.

Want- 50%
Indifferent but he could be cool.

Funky Kong-10.56%

Steve X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[Cycrum]

Mimikyu

Chance: 30%

Everything I could have possibly said has been mentioned by ones who are clearly far more dedicated to this argument, so I guess I'll just summarize the points with which I agree with those I disagree with. Popularity is hardly a factor as Sakurai likely finalized his project plan (with almost the whole roster included) around summer of 2016, which means that Sakurai would have likely picked the Gen VII Pokemon rep around their concept designs and any other details that Game Freak decided to give him. However, it does have a better chance than most of the other Gen VII reps since it was revealed around July 2016 to immediately positive reception, making Game Freak more likely to suggest it and Sakurai more likely to notice it. It also still has moveset potential as it has plenty of moves from its source material and two spectral limbs and a fake tail to use to attack and grab.

Want: 75%

I actually like its origin story and its type combination is pretty cool, too.

Prediction:
New Funky Mode: 21.68%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[Arcanir]

Mimikyu

Chance: 55%

I'm going to be brief with this one today since I don't have too much time.

It's the other breakout Pokémon of the generation, sporting a high amount of popularity and promotion via the anime and merchandise. It also has moveset potential with its typing and ability, which would be unique in the Smash environment since no other fighter fully shares its traits. It's biggest issue is competition with other fellow Alolan Pokémon like Decidueye and Lycanroc, and depending on when Sakurai drafted the roster, risking a fair chunk of its promotion and prominence being overlooked.

Want: 50%
Overall I'm ambivalent on it. I don't mind it in the games or the anime and I wouldn't be upset if it was chosen, but it's never been a particular favorite of mine of the Alolan Pokémon so between the other potential options I'd prefer them over it.

Nominations: Monster Hunter character x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Mimikyu

Chance: 72%
Mimikyu has the unique strength of being a small character. It's not often one shows up that has both the resume (sorry, Qbby) and the moveset potential, and adding one would rebalance the roster away from the Marth-sized humanoids that most other newcomers will get sized at.

Truth be told, all three of the Pokemon newcomers offer unique and interesting moveset possibilities. They don't overlap, they're not present anywhere else in the roster (save for that Decidueye, who'll need more than a straightforward kind of arrow), and they're all once-in-a-lifetime deals, because you can easily bet that they won't get as strong of a chance again. Gen 7, again, is on the way out, and with it goes every Pokemon that stays only as popular as the present generation number.

Mimikyu isn't held back by much - the most that can screw him over is the chance that he gets immediately thrown into the Pokeball list without a second glance. Whatever happens, his appearance in Smash 5 is certainly assured - the only question left is to guess the flavor of uniqueness that Sakurai wants to go for.


Want: 75%
Hell yeah. Stretchy, form-defying shadow limbs, dark/mischievous powers, a puppet disguise to top it all off - you won't get a character that brims with as much potential Mimikyu anytime soon. The context of Pikachu, a foundation as solid as Pokemon itself, only augments Mimikyu's identity - if he ever gets in, people won't question why long after Gen 7 passes into history.


Prediction:
Funky Kong: 4%

Nominations:
Papyrus: x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

View attachment 145170

I've had time to reconsider my position on both. And frankly, I only see Decidueye as likely now.

ribbit

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: 67.5%

Mimikyu has a strong combination. High popularity, a unique design that would instantly pop off the page just from looking at design documents (like the unique Pikachu connection), it has appeared in the anime (which suggests not only more appeal, but that the anime writers/Gamwfreak saw something in it) and of course Mimikyu has pretty high potential. When Sakurai talks about adding "unique appeal" to Smash Brothers, it is hard not to think that Mimikyu would fit the bill pretty perfectly. There's a few ways you could go with it and there's a high ceiling on how good it could get with it. It isn't super "easy' but the conceptualizing feels pretty Sakurai-ish. It doesn't get higher because I feel Decidueye is a higher chance (Lycanroc not so much) and because it feels less "safe" than a character like Captain Toad.

Want: 90%

Mimikyu is great! The Pokemon's entire concept is great, a little spirit jealous of the obscene popularity of Pikachu and all that, and Pokemon unsurprisingly executed it quite well. I do like Deciudeye, but Mimikyu is THE Gen 7 Pokemon I feel is reasonable to get in that I also really want in. It could have a wonderful little rivalry with Pikachu, give us another smaller character, tons of ways to add more unique gameplay (Although I do want my actual archer character nad not just "one bow special", Sakurai!), and is in general a pretty top tier choice. Just all around great.

Prediction

Funky Kong: 10%

Nominations

Dark Samus x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Mimikyu

Chance: 40%

Surprisingly I don't have much to say here. I'm just gonna give it the same chance I currently have the other two frontrunners for Gen 7. They all have their reasons why they could get picked over the other two, and it's not likely we'll get more than one, so I'll just wait and see here. I'm fairly certain we're getting one of the three no matter what.

Want: 50%

Don't have any strong feelings either way. It's a decent enough Pokémon. I'd prefer Decidueye, but I don't find Mimikyu to be a bad choice and it definitely interests me more than Lycanroc.

Funky Kong prediction: 13.48%

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Mimikyu

Chance: 47%

- It’s one of the most popular Gen 7 Pokemon not only in the games but also in the anime as well as merchandise.

Want: 0.2%

- Meh. It isn’t Decidueye nor Bewear. Not even a Tapu.

Prediction

Funky Kong: 23.5%

Nomination

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Well...thing is, fan popularity ain't all it's cracked up to be when it comes to newcomers. For proof, just look back to every previous Smash game--several fan favorites have always been left out, and characters we'd never thought to consider found their way in. I know, it feels comforting and a little empowering to feel like we the fans have some final say in who matters and who doesn't, but it grossly misunderstands the intent of the roster to begin with: Sakurai isn't some almighty judge nor some renegade we must browbeat into submitting to our demands, he's just looking for the most compelling new additions.

Truth is, popularity is fickle, ever-changing, and unreliable, something we've also seen repeatedly in Smash's history. Wolf went from resented at Brawl's release for "stealing a slot" from more interesting options (even within his own series!) to a prodigal son several years later who was "more deserving" than other DLC picks you may or may not have felt less of a connection to. Bayonetta went from being seen as the fans' champion in early 2016 to an unstoppable harbinger of death whose players were fated to break the metagame over their knees and steamroll everything without the need to exert any effort whatsoever. Seriously, think of how many people want Bayo gone in Smash Switch, even though the grim fate that half the competitive side of the fandom foretold never actually happened.

The fans' stance on characters can change at the drop of a hat, and Sakurai and the Smash devs know this. They keep an eye on who is popular at the moment, but it's merely one of many factors they consider, and unlike what so much of this community believes, it's far from the most important. Think of who we'd have missed out on if popularity was such a hardline requirement. What if Ness and his strange psychic powers never got people interested in the Mother series? What if Captain Falcon was still just some guy from some niche racer, and never became Nintendo's premier memetic badass?

This is why I don't buy the hype surrounding Mimikyu. While popularity factors into other characters' chances to an extent, it feels like so much of the argument for Mimkyu is reliant on its popularity, as if being popular enough renders any flaws and issues irrelevant. It doesn't, and that's something we saw firsthand just a few years ago with Chrom's shelving and the Ice Climbers' absence...so why do so many still assume enough popularity can fix a character's problems now?

Yeah, way to ignore the franchise in question. Popularity's not the biggest factor for most franchises at all, true - except in the case of Pokemon.

Pikachu had done nothing for the original Pokemon Red/Blue. Jigglypuff, less so. But Smash 64 put them in because those were the Pokemon most popular at the time - and as we can see in Jigglypuff and Mewtwo's case, just because you're time's gone doesn't mean you don't get back in. (Sorry, Pichu.) Even today, Pikachu stands on a pillar built out of popular appeal, not out of the foundations of game design that elevated Mario, Link, and all the rest.

If you debase popularity as a Pokemon candidate's pillar, then you do it to all of them. Lucario and Greninja would be furry fads who would've been cut at the first opportunity. Mewtwo and Charizard would be a bunch of outdated fossils that had no reason to get in in the first place. Decidueye drops to the same level as his starter siblings, and Lycanroc loses all arguments and becomes yet another example of generation chaff - why add him over Kommo-o? Araquanid? Crabominable?

Popularity in general is fickle, yes. That's why we only see Pokemon as having good chances when their generation is the latest. Just take Zoroark - why did we espouse him when there were plenty of other Generation 5 Pokemon to choose from? Why did his chances die as soon as Generation 6 arrived? The same happened to Sceptile and Blaziken too - weren't they beloved by fans? Didn't they have the moveset potential and fit into Smash perfectly? How come no one argues for them anymore?

And this is all assuming that Mimikyu even loses its popularity, which isn't something anyone should be making bold claims about. I can say for certain, however, that everyone else in Generation 7 stands to lose a lot more than Mimikyu does once the generation shift happens, because only Mimikyu's based on an idea that exists outside of its own generation.

That said...I won't deny that Mimikyu is prominent, potentially enough to have been among the Gen 7 'mons considered for Smash Switch. But from there comes another obstacle:

As we've seen several times before, character concepts are an integral part of the selection process. No one gets the all clear unless the Smash team has a finished concept in mind for them and knows they will both function well and stand out. Its contemporaries Decidueye and Lycanroc shine here, but this is where Mimikyu begins to falter.

Being a Ghost/Fairy type, Mimikyu tends toward supernatural and occult abilities with a small amount of magic and trickery mixed in. Ghost moves in Smash so far have been portrayed using darkness, and so it stands to think Mimikyu would have a strong affinity for that...which is a problem, since we already have characters like Ganondorf and Mewtwo who dabble in that element. While that isn't a deal breaker on its own, when you have two rivals who both focus on elements that are completely untouched on the current roster...it's not a good look, and it doesn't help you feel as unique in comparison.

Sheik and Squirtle didn't hurt Greninja's chances none. No one else has a body type similar to Mimikyu's, not even Pikachu, because Mimikyu's limbs come from his feet. Elemental uniqueness isn't a strong argument when Pokemon has about 12 more to feature, and Smash has no urgency to go down the list.

Greninja overlaps with Mimikyu more than Ganondorf and Mewtwo do, and that's just for having Shadow Sneak.

Moreover, there's the matter of Mimikyu's body...or the thing it wears...or...well, you get the idea. While non-bipedal builds aren't unheard of in Smash, it can make things less practical, and there needs to be assurance that the character in question can interact with all aspects of the game in ways believable enough that you can at least handwave the minutiae. I've personally addressed this issue with Lycanroc before, how the Dusk form's quadrupedal build could still viably interact with items, but Mimikyu's doll covering that must stay on and reliance on two shadowy appendages and a wooden false tail it has limited control over present a great deal more difficulty building around to ensure it can move, emote, perform all 23 or so attacks that make up a moveset, and roll with anything that can happen in the chaos of a free-for-all. I've seen a few moveset ideas here and there, but...none have really had that spark that made me think the character would truly work, and several of them felt overly...contrived, for lack of a better word. Sure, the Disguise ability could make for an interesting mechanic that'd protect it from a hit occasionally, but one gimmick does not a moveset make.

But what really frustrates me is how I've seen people note these issues and just...wave them off, convinced that Mimikyu is popular enough that "Sakurai will make it work". Thing is, we've never seen this in action--we even saw it notably not happen during Smash 4 development when the Ice Climbers' popularity wasn't able to save them from performance issues in the 3DS version. That's what I think a lot of the people who notice Mimikyu are overlooking: being very popular does not solve or remove the obstacles in its path. While that's not an immediate deal breaker, it presents a great deal of question marks that are much less numerous for Decidueye and Lycanroc.

Sakurai made Villager work. Made R.O.B. work. Made Ivysaur work.

MImikyu is not going to be harder to make than those characters.

 

[VexTheHex]

View attachment 145166

Let's just ignore every other argument against Mimikyu that people mentioned ITT. Clearly no bias there.
I did take the competition into account when I rated Decidueye, by the way. I admittedly overrated him, but I feel that he doesn't face as many obstacles as Mimikyu does.

I can't speak for others, but I feel that there are many factors that give Decidueye the edge over most of its competitors, case and point being Mimikyu, whose moveset potential isn't quite as easy to visualize as Decidueye's. I'm not Sakurai, but based on what he has previosuly said I feel that would be his thought process.

Still think it may of turned them off having to figure how to animate Lycanroc wielding swords and guns with nothing but his mouth. A still and awkward picture of a Wolf with a sword in it's mouth doesn't mean it'll look good in all cases and animated.

Most of the arguments for scores drastically low were "Decidueye exists" types or "How would it even fight?" types. Decidueye was never declared King of Gen 7 or Sakurai's favorite Pokemon. He's literally the least popular final stage of the starters inside the Pokemon fanbase itself. Maybe Rowlet should be who people think is already in the game practically, the actual winner of the poll? In other words, there is a lot of competition for Pokemon slots and declaring only one pick is the pick is kind of ridiculous. And clearly the first page's post showing the extended claws and such make the claims it has no fighting capabilities also shallow.

There is one more valid one I'll address though. The nobody would of known who was popular at that point and Sakurai would of just had basic concept art show casing a rather incapable doll. I kind of struggle seeing them not being far enough along to showcase to Sakurai what the vision of the Pokemon were. And I find it weird people seem to think they hadn't planned out who were the Pokemon that would be pushed. The game and anime both feature a important Mimikyu, so I doubt that was a last minute choice. Now I'm not saying that places Mimikyu at the top, but it showcases that there are some Pokemon put on the track to stardom over others. Zoroark was one that failed to ever get traction or popularity, but it still had all it's game and anime moments since it was a Pokemon they planned on being a success.

Decidueye's visualized move set has literally been people repeating grass archer or grass flying archer. While that can be cool, there is a certain Angel named Pit who already covers flying archer. We don't have a siren, evil doll, or wrestler on the other hand. Mimikyu may be harder to slap a move set on at first look, but I highly doubt Sakurai's creativity is that low.

Though overall I should point out that in the Roster game threads, I did place Decidueye on my rosters. So to be blunt, I do support the bird as well. I just am not that keen on people acting like or shutting down other Pokemon that have valid cases as well. I feel the Mimikyu v Decidueye mentality overall makes both sides less appealing at least to me. Maybe it's best if wrestler cat or steroid mosquito swoop in for the spot. Or maybe Decidueye and Mimikyu both get in, that way Decidueye supports can stomp their hated rival while both sides get their pick.

 

[DaUsername]

pekeshu
Chance: 35%
Want: 30%

Funky Kong prediction: 9%
Noms: Steve x5

 

[RandomAce]

Mimikyu:

Chance: 30%

Although Mimikyu is a VERY popular Pokémon, there are still many other options from Gen 7 that can catch the devs attention and be just as unique. Decidueye, Lycanroc (Any form), Inceneroar, an Ultra Beast, they are all popular pokemom that can also be unique to enter in the fray as Mimikyu is. They might be not be as popular as Mimikyu, but I feel that the devs saw something more unique in some of the other potential Gen 7 candidates than Mimikyu.

Want: 15%

Too be honest, I don’t really like the idea of Mimikyu being a fighter. There are many other pokemon I want over Mimikyu and I would rather want someone else.

Nominations:
x5 Monster Hunter

 

[Deleted member]

Mimikyu
Chance-30%
Want-30%
I definetly think this will be more than a trophy in the next smash game(likely as a pokeball, but i don't think itll be a newcomer. I would be happy if im wrong.

Pred. Funky Kong-42%

Noms-
Lip x5

 

[Delzethin]

Yeah, way to ignore the franchise in question. Popularity's not the biggest factor for most franchises at all, true - except in the case of Pokemon.

Pikachu had done nothing for the original Pokemon Red/Blue. Jigglypuff, less so. But Smash 64 put them in because those were the Pokemon most popular at the time - and as we can see in Jigglypuff and Mewtwo's case, just because you're time's gone doesn't mean you don't get back in. (Sorry, Pichu.) Even today, Pikachu stands on a pillar built out of popular appeal, not out of the foundations of game design that elevated Mario, Link, and all the rest.

If you debase popularity as a Pokemon candidate's pillar, then you do it to all of them. Lucario and Greninja would be furry fads who would've been cut at the first opportunity. Mewtwo and Charizard would be a bunch of outdated fossils that had no reason to get in in the first place. Decidueye drops to the same level as his starter siblings, and Lycanroc loses all arguments and becomes yet another example of generation chaff - why add him over Kommo-o? Araquanid? Crabominable?

Popularity in general is fickle, yes. That's why we only see Pokemon as having good chances when their generation is the latest. Just take Zoroark - why did we espouse him when there were plenty of other Generation 5 Pokemon to choose from? Why did his chances die as soon as Generation 6 arrived? The same happened to Sceptile and Blaziken too - weren't they beloved by fans? Didn't they have the moveset potential and fit into Smash perfectly? How come no one argues for them anymore?

And this is all assuming that Mimikyu even loses its popularity, which isn't something anyone should be making bold claims about. I can say for certain, however, that everyone else in Generation 7 stands to lose a lot more than Mimikyu does once the generation shift happens, because only Mimikyu's based on an idea that exists outside of its own generation.

I don't like relying on popularity as an argument, and it's because not even the Pokémon in Smash were chosen because of it. Pikachu was prominent from the get go, featured in the anime, manga, and eventually became the face of the franchise. That prominence led to popularity and also led to being the face of Pokémon in Smash as well. Prominence at the right time has been a constant every time a new Smash game as come around. Take it from Sakurai himself:

Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.

For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.

But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.

Notice the emphasis on asking who will be important going forward? They aren't asking who the fans approve of, because that skirts toward the risky and unpredictable. Sakurai and his team look at prominence, not popularity, and I've been trying to point that out since Smash 4 speculation to little avail. Charizard, Lucario, Greninja, and the rest have not lost their prominence despite the spotlight moving on to other generations, and when combined with their unique abilities and the fact that their home franchise hasn't been on hiatus, explains exactly why they've stuck around. The only 'mons we've seen miss the cut have either been clones or were part of the logjam that is Gen 1 in Smash--Mewtwo was low enough priority to be a narrow miss in Brawl and in 4's base roster because the newer characters were deemed higher priority than the front-heavy number of older ones. Sakurai thinks the newer stars matter too!

This is why support for Zoroark, Sceptile, Blaziken, and the like has died down despite them being just as popular as ever: enough of their fans know that it's not their time right now. One needs to be prominent and relevant to get into Smash, and they have the former but not the latter any more.

Popularity is not the determining factor here, even though it may seem that way at first. There is something more going on under the surface. Though it still only goes so far, since being a big enough deal only gets you far enough to be considered. From there, you need to be able to stand out.

Sheik and Squirtle didn't hurt Greninja's chances none. No one else has a body type similar to Mimikyu's, not even Pikachu, because Mimikyu's limbs come from his feet. Elemental uniqueness isn't a strong argument when Pokemon has about 12 more to feature, and Smash has no urgency to go down the list.

Greninja overlaps with Mimikyu more than Ganondorf and Mewtwo do, and that's just for having Shadow Sneak.

While Smash doesn't check off boxes for untapped elements or anything, having your entire set of abilities built around something no current character can come close to is pretty damn unique. Mimikyu may have a unique body type (one that may present some issues, mind you), but both Decidueye and Lycanroc have unique builds of their own--ones with fewer potential issues--and movepools built around completely unique elements. Your mileage may vary, of course, but from the perspective of a designer making drafts of character concepts for them all and weighing their options, it seems like Mimikyu has less upside than its counterparts and more hangups that have to be worked around.

And for what it's worth, by the time Greninja was chosen, they'd probably already known Squirtle was far down on the priority list and wouldn't have much of a shot.

Sakurai made Villager work. Made R.O.B. work. Made Ivysaur work.

MImikyu is not going to be harder to make than those characters. T

He also couldn't make Chrom work, couldn't make the Ice Climbers work on the 3DS, and hasn't yet found a way to make Ridley work. Just because Sakurai and crew have found angles for characters that we never considered before (Wii Fit Trainer fighting with yoga poses and exercise equipment!) doesn't mean they are the MacGyvers of fighting games. We shouldn't count on them to figure out what we can't.

Personal pet peeve of mine. If you think your favorite could stand out in Smash, go ahead and make a character concept for them! Don't count on Sakurai to bail you out, show everyone what you see in them!

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Mimikyu

70% Chance

For reasons stated on Lycanorc's day, I feel it is highly likely that we can get more than one Pokemon newcomer. Now I may view Lycanroc Dusk as the most likely, but there are some other characters worth considering.

Now I will state I feel in the hype of Smash 5 we may have overrated Decidueye a smidge. Yes, there are many appealing characteristics of the Avian Archer, but at the same time he has his hurdles. Namely, he just is not getting pushed the way we expected him to. He has had a push, Rowlet is loved so his family tree gets a lot of love, and Pokken DX does exist (damn i need to get that). But he did not have the push that we all were expecting.

Mimikyu from inception has had that sort of push. Mimikyu merch has been all over the place. The little guy has a solid fanbase, being one of the most popular mons of the region. He was popular pre release, he is popular post release, he overall has a good resume.

The two mons share many similarities. Keep in mind a lot of what I am saying will also apply to Lycanroc Dusk. All three have easy to visualize movesets. All three offer something new to the roster compared to existing pokemon and characters. All three are popular in the grand series of pokemon. Overall they all have great resumes.

Ultimately, I feel what might determine the role of concept art and the pokemon companys pull. I posted the Mimikyu concept art in the OP, and I feel it does show off Mimikyu's greatest benefits: its rivalry with Pikachu and its ghostly body. Now lets look at the Decidueye concept art that was leaked in 2016.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/131/187/410.jpg

In comparison to the Mimikyu one we see in USUM (I know this one is earlier but we can assume that it would probably be similar tbh), we see what this does. It asserts the personality and fighting style of Decidueye. Like the Mimikyu art in the OP: it shows off a lot of personality and the abilities.


Why do I bring this up? Essentially it is because Sakurai will choose a Pokemon based of Pokemon company's sway and concept art. IMO both pieces of art sell their character well.

Why do I feel we could get two pokemon newcomers for Smash Switch? The franchise celebrated its 20th anniversery. As such, I could see Gen 7 getting the extra boost.

Now there is the elephant in the room of Gen 8. Now personally I feel that given this Smash game is likely coming out this year or 2019 and I am not convinced that even if Gen 8 is announced it would come this year, I feel it is too early for a gen 8 mon. If promotional stuff does occur, Eevee or whatever is Gen 8's Lucario are good choices.

Overall, a strong contender who I think has a shot. Strong competition though.

100% Want

Low key Mimikyu, Decidueye, and Lycanroc are by far my favorite gen 7 pokemon. Like I like a lot of them but those three are my favorites. I think it is due to their designs just clicking with me and liking their whole families (even Midnight I think is ok, but Dusk is best doggo). The only other mons this generation that I love is Nihilego. I liked a lot of mons, but few are in my all time favorites. Those ones are.

In contrast, Gen 6 I felt was on the weaker side. The only mons that I loved that gen were Greninja and Aegislash. I mean most of them were ok, there was only one bad mon imo. But it was just not my cup of tea. Gen 5 had a lot of ok mons, few terrible mons, and a few amazing mons (my favorites include Victini, Zoroark, Gigilith, Scolipede, Archeops, Galvantula, Chandelure, and Volcarona). Point is, in terms of the pokemon themselves, this gen has been the strongest in quality overall for a while for me. Even I would argue its on par with Gen 4, which i have a lot of nostalgia for.

Ironically I find SM and USUM super flawed. I found the story to drag on too long due to to many animations and text, Hau is the worst rival in the series (dumbass chooses the one weak to me what a ****ing loser), the main quest feels like you are railroaded on a straight path harder than any other pokemon game, taking out the PSS from Gen 6 still baffles me, and the music is just ok. On the flip side the region is great looking, ride pokemon are great, the new pokemon are great, the music that is good is sweet, and the story does have its charms and has props for attempting character development.

Overall, a good mon from games I do like despite their flaws, I support all three of the frontrunners. And Nihilego but that would not happen

Nominating Excitebiker x 5

DAY OVER CALCS INCOMING

 

[harukaamami]

I'm sorry but Mimikyu was designed to be popular from the get go. The marketing push placed them in the spotlight from the start and they had a large role in the anime from very early on. TPC had always meant to push it.

I also don't think they are hard to implement at all; for starters, they wouldn't need to be any smaller than Pikachu. Second, their ghost claw is extremely versatile. Mimikyu uses the ghost claw in a wide variety of ways and has a bunch of attacks that make use of it in both the anime an the games: it scratches, it grabs, it can manipulate objects, it stretches, it can change shape as if it was a whip. Honestly, the ghost claw is all Mimikyu would need for a full move-set. There is more, of course. Mimikyu's tale is actually just a sturdy piece of wood that Mimikyu can use as it was a sword and they have access to a bunch of "energy projectile" attacks. Move-set viability, or viewing implementing them as hard, is easily the worst argument against Mimikyu.

 

[Organization XIII]

He also couldn't make Chrom work, couldn't make the Ice Climbers work on the 3DS, and hasn't yet found a way to make Ridley work. Just because Sakurai and crew have found angles for characters that we never considered before (Wii Fit Trainer fighting with yoga poses and exercise equipment!) doesn't mean they are the MacGyvers of fighting games. We shouldn't count on them to figure out what we can't.

While I agree with your point Sakurai could make Chrom work he just didn't find him interesting and the Ice Climbers being cut for technical limitations is comparing apples to oranges.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Mimikyu

37.61% Chance
46.91% Want

Similar chance score to Lycanroc, albeit higher want. Methinks it is due to people being more indifferent to Lycanroc while there were more hard supporters for both Mimikyu and Decidueye. Also, I will make a deal. If Decidueye gets chosen by yall to be one of our most overrated characters, we will do a whole pokemon day where each of the three frontrunners will be rerated. I know I said I want to keep this thread tame but it will be interesting to see.

@KingofPhantoms was the closest, have 5 extra noms.

Today we got Funky Kong, complete with New Funky Mode. Please rate funky in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for KOS-MOS.

 

[Delzethin]

Phew, that day was a rollercoaster of emotions. Looks like in the end, we have three Gen 7 mons getting taken seriously on the boards now instead of just one. How that'll turn out in the long run...well, we'll have to see.

Also, I will make a deal. If Decidueye gets chosen by yall to be one of our most overrated characters, we will do a whole pokemon day where each of the three frontrunners will be rerated. I know I said I want to keep this thread tame but it will be interesting to see.

This would be after E3? Should be interesting, especially since there's a chance Rowlet, Rockruff, or Mimikyu itself could show up as Poké Ball summons during any footage we see.

While I agree with your point Sakurai could make Chrom work he just didn't find him interesting and the Ice Climbers being cut for technical limitations is comparing apples to oranges.

Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but the argument being pushed was that Sakurai could force any issues with implementation aside if a character was popular enough. I used those as examples where that did not happen.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Phew, that day was a rollercoaster of emotions. Looks like in the end, we have three Gen 7 mons getting taken seriously on the boards now instead of just one. How that'll turn out in the long run...well, we'll have to see.


This would be after E3? Should be interesting, especially since there's a chance Rowlet, Rockruff, or Mimikyu itself could show up as Poké Ball summons during any footage we see.
.

Yep it would be after E3. After E3 we will go through the ratings and pick out the top 4 that we view as most overrated and underrated. Then they shall be rerated. If Decidueye or any of the pokemon come up I will make it a pokemon day and put all three on the chopping block. Unless one gets confirmed at E3 or outright deconfirmed

 

[NeonBurrito]

Funky Kong

THREAD MUSIC:

Chance - 1%

We always talk about how late is too late for certain characters, most notably with characters like Rex and an ARMS character. Funky's most recent claim to fame would be the Tropical Freeze: Electric Funkaloo, but considering it was announced just a few months ago, I really doubt he made it in time to be considered part of the planning process.

Perhaps a last-minute Donkey Kong clone? Despite how Funky Kong tends to stand on two legs and Donkey Kong on all fours, they do have similar builds.

Want - 75%

Funky Kong is totally bodacious, man. Despite looking like Donkey Kong, he could have a smoking moveset focused around his gnarly hovering surfboard. If the idea of slamming someone's skull in with a magical flying surfboard does not sound totally radical, then you are incorrect.

He was also my go to guy during the Mario Kart Wii online days, but then again, he was everyone's go to guy during the Mario Kart Wii days, unless they were a filthy Daisy + Mach Bike scrub who couldn't handle the raw speed and strength of The Funkster + Flame Runner.

Basically, I'm just really desperate for some new DKC content. I'd take anything I could get at this point. Dixie, Cranky, K. Rool, Funky, Leo Luster, whatever. Just give me someone.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Funky Kong

Chance: 1%

No way that porting Tropical Freeze and adding him to the game took over a year to do. I also don't know if he really did anything noteworthy in the DK games before Funky mode. K.Rool, Dixie and even Cranky all make more sense to get in as DK newcomers.

I also doubt in him getting in as a Dark Pit like clone for Donkey Kong. They only share the same build, they don't fight the same way. Funky didn't even fight at all untill recently in fact. Putting DK's moveset on him would make him feel more like a modded in character skin rather than an official fighter.

Want: 10%

The other three characters I listed just deserve it far more honestly. Funky Kong may be cool but his inclusion in Smash wouldn't be.

Predictions for KOS-MOS: 3.09%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Deleted member]

New Funky Mode

Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

Nominations: Concept: Boss Battles Mode x 5

 

[NintenRob]

Sigh
Memey Kong
Double 0
Actually no that's not fair
Clone Kong
Chance 12%
I could see him as a clone. In Mario Kart Wii, I'm 90% sure he only got in because of his model being similar enough to Donkey Kong. I could see it happening here given the time. All he would really need is a new idle pose.
Want 0%
I've kind hated him in Funky Bike Wii. I don't really want to see him return

Nominate Lara Croft x5

Prediction KOSMOS 4.5%

 

[ShinyRegice]

Funky Kong chances: 12%
He hasn't been playable in a mainline Donkey Kong game before the recent Tropical Freeze port, as a result he may likely fail to make it over Dixie Kong whose playable roles in the series made her get more support. However, he's in the DK series related to all the machinery stuff like transportation and guns, giving him a defined identity and obvious moveset potential as a result. And while the TF port might be too late, it at least strongly suggests that Nintendo sees him as a marketable character.

Funky Kong want: 30%
Seeing the DK series get more characters would be nice, but I care more about specific characters than characters from specific series, and Funky isn't my first choice for a DK character. As I said he has his own identity as a mechanician, but Diddy already uses gun and barrel wooden technology from the DK series in his moveset; I was going to give Funky a higher want score than that but remembering about Diddy's moveset made me lower it. And thinking about it he would be best as an Assist Trophy, something the DK series really needs too.

KOS-MOS prediction: 6.03%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x3
Returning fighter: Corrin x2

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

FUNKY NEW POST INCOMING

Real Chance: 15%
Realistically, there's no way we'll see Funky getting playable before the big names in K. Rool and Dixie Kong. K. Rool has his insane fan demand and many people would be ecstatic to see him. Dixie Kong, while not having that insane popularity, has recency on her side in the way of Tropical Freeze on the Switch. Funky has relevancy on his side, and being playable in the Switch version helps him just a little bit more to the extent of being an advertised feature of the box-art. FEATURING DANTE & Knuckles.

Still, as I said, he's definitely not getting in before either Dixie or K. Rool. He might also lack the move set appeal that the other two have - Dixie has her hair to use, and they could take inspiration from other hair-using fighters like Milia Rage of Guilty Gear; K. Rool has his vast repertoire of disguises and abilities from his Boss fights to draw from. Funky's not exactly a fighter, and most of his attacks would probably come from his surfboard, which could leave a bit to be desired. He has a chance if Sakurai wants to consider him for a DLC fighter and how the DK series is now due for a fighter; but in the end, K. Rool and Dixie far outshine him for a spot in Smash.

Want: 55%
Ultimately, my most wanted Donkey Kong newcomer is Dixie Kong and K. Rool [REDACTED MIXED FEELING RANT], but Funky would probably be someone I'd take as a DLC character for Smash. Definitely not before the others, but a FUNKY idea to think about.

 

[Deleted member]

Funky Kong

Chance: 10%
Heavily promoted for the Tropical Freeze port. Probably too late and even then he's a long shot, but hey, it's something. It's worth mentioning that he was infamous in Mario Kart Wii, the 7th best selling game of all time. Honestly, he's probably more recognizable to the casual crowd than K. Rool or Dixie. He'd also be pretty unique, which could catch Sakurai's eye. But even then, I can't see him getting in over Dixie or K. Rool, nor the addition of all 3.

Want: 100%
Funky has so much personality, and he'd use a freaking surfboard! Have him perform tricks on his board for the majority of his moves, and you have one funky fighter. Imagine a character whose every move is a taunt. That's Funky Kong, and it's amazing.

KOS-MOS prediction: 5.3%

Nominating Tingle x3, Excitebiker x2

 

[Yokta]

Funky Kong is gonna get 50-50 from me.

I rate his chances at 50% because we're probably not getting more than one DK newcomer and he has to prove his worth over Dixie and K. Rool. However, Dixie is essentially female Diddy and K. Rool was unceremoniously dumped from the continuity. I won't say Funky has more of a chance than the King, but I can't say he has less of a chance.

My rating for Want is 50%. I haven't played a game featuring him since DK64, but I wouldn't mind having him in to represent all the weapons and items he sells to the Kongs.

Vote +5 Breidablik

 

[Nebelung]

Funky Kong!

Chances: 10%

Well... the Donkey Kong series hasn't been too well-loved. It would make much more sense to have Dixie or King K. Rool over him, and there's only so many slots. They could pull some Fire Emblem shenanigans though... Funky Kong DLC?!

Want: 30%

I actually haven't played Donkey Kong games much! But I really like this guys style and attitude. He'd be a really fun addition!

Nominations: x5 Sable Prince

 

[Runic_SSB]

Funky Kong

Chance: 50%
It's either gonna be him, Dixie, or K. Rool. They each have a lot going for and against them, so it's hard to say which one will get in (if any). And there's always the chance it could be cranky or even DK Jr. (which I'm more than okay with).

Want: 100%
I made the support thread and gave him like 90% of his votes, of course I want him.

KOS-MOS prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5 (I'm gonna have to start nominating new characters soon).

 

[YoshiandToad]

Funky Kong
Chance: 3%
If we're getting a DK newcomer it'll be from Tropical Freeze, but it's not going to be the port.
Dixie and Cranky are really the only possibilities in my mind with K. Rool as an outlier if the ballot means as much as people think it does. After all, Sakurai's always run these "who you wanna see in Smash" polls but this was the first time the whole world got to voice it to him.

To be honest I'm going to go with my gut and say it's Dixie or bust.

Want: 45%
I like Funky, and to an extent him getting in next makes sense since he's a consistant presence in the DKC games even making it onto Mario Kart before Dixie, Cranky or K. Rool, but of the four possible DK newcomers he's arguably the least important.

Dixie's been a tritagonist, and even the lead protagonist in one of the original trilogy being playable more times than DK himself, although her disappearance in DK 64 was very peculiar.

K. Rool has vocal fan demand, at least on here and is seen as the main villain of the series despite not reappearing in the reboot Returns series at all. I'm still convinced he's no where near as likely as Smashboards fans tend to make out though.

Cranky is technically the original Donkey Kong that kidnapped Pauline and has appeared in as many DKC games as Funky although with a playable role on the Wii U generation's console which I stand by will be where the majority of newcomers come from.

I'd also be a bit disappointed if Funky got in over these three too so that knocks it down a bit. If we somehow got three DK newcomers I'd probably want this more, but Dixie and one of the other two is a must first.

KOS-MOS prediction: 4%

Nomination: Meowth X 5

 

[Runic_SSB]

And thinking about it he would be best as an Assist Trophy, something the DK series really needs too.

But they already have one:

 

[BluePikmin11]

Funky Kong has managed to get a giant following ever since the Tropical Freeze Switch port was announced. Before that, he was very popular within the Mario Kart Wii fanbase with him being the most used character in Time Trials. His fame in MKWii even shows in the form of a trophy in Smash Wii U. With the following Funky Kong has, could he get in as a last-minute dessert? As much as people like to rave about Funky being the next clone Sakurai could add, Funky is at a disadvantage, at least for the base game.

To understand my skepticism of Funky, we need to look into the history of clones in Smash. Starting with Smash 64, Sakurai was able to create the four hidden characters only with the fact that he was able to reuse some movements and model parts of pre-existing characters from Nintendo and possibly from Dragon King concept of gameplay as well. Although 64’s cast of characters were all unique, it was not until Melee greatly expanded on clones.

With Melee, Sakurai added last-minute clones mid-way in development to pad out the roster. This was the only time where Sakurai would come up with clone ideas during development. For Brawl, clone characters like Wolf/Toon Link were planned since the start. With Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function.

With Sakurai focusing more on unique newcomers in Smash and far less with bringing new planned clones, the only notable way I can see new clones in is through alt. costume to last-minute character. I cannot see Funky Kong originally being an alternate costume for Donkey Kong in Smash Switch, nor can I see him being a pre-planned last-minute clone because of him not gaining notable fan support until the late Tropical Freeze port was announced. Only by DLC can I see him being in, but even new clones getting in as DLC is doubtful.

Because of learning this information about clones, I have been skeptical about new clones in general. There is a real chance that we might not see any new planned semi-clones like Wolf and Toon Link EVER. Sakurai might just focus on prioritizing unique newcomers and veterans yet again, with only a few occasions where alt. to character becomes a necessity. This is why I have been really skeptical about keeping Dixie Kong in my predictions lately and see characters like Octolings being bigger possibilities. Though with the former, I do have a bit of hope.

Spoiler: Dixie Kong Re-Analysis

Upon learning new information about clones, I have been seeing Dixie as unlikely. However, I I can see her having a real shot IF these two certain factors align. The first of which is Dixie’s relevance. She hits a middle ground, where her major appearance in Tropical Freeze was too late of a release for her to get considered in Smash 4’s base game and her not being planned with only fan-favorite veterans and third-parties as DLC with not a new clone added, despite Dixie’s major appearance in Tropical Freeze as relevant enough at the time to be considered as a possible DLC choice for Smash 4.

I have realized now her big appearance in the TF Switch port would potentially not count in this matter, assuming every character had been planned in 2016 when the port likely was not known or developed at the time. It does count on Sakurai seeing Tropical Freeze Wii U as relevant enough at the time of the project proposal in early 2016, even in 2014, for me to see Sakurai consider her as a clone akin to Toon Link/Wolf.

Most importantly, her being in will HEAVILY depend on her ballot popularity. If her number of votes in the ballot are notably really high, I can see that opening a hole for Sakurai, to which he can make an exception on his newcomer selection and add Dixie in Smash as a planned but low priority newcomer clone. It is likely that she gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot, but whether such popularity will convince Sakurai to make exceptions is fairly uncertain with his current philosophy on unique newcomers.

It is going to take a miracle, but I am banking on it happening. Sakurai added Wolf way back in Brawl as the last clone character mainly due to high popularity. If Dixie’s potentially high amount of ballot votes is suffice enough for Sakurai to make exceptions with the newcomer selection process, then I can see her added as a planned low-priority clone at best. She has two big obstacles to overcome, but there is a small ray of hope. I see Dixie more as a risky bet than a likely choice for Smash Switch now.

In general, I feel we should not be factoring mid-way development as a factor for clones with Smash Switch. I do not think last-minute clones can just be decided during development. Rather, it is more likely that new clones would either be planned at the very start like in Brawl, or they get in via alternate costumes to last-minute clones.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Funky

Chance 50%
Want 0%

Sometimes I think he’s likelier than both Dixie and K. Rool, sometimes I think he’s unlikely. I don’t believe in waiting lists like everyone else does. His two rivals had their chance and missed twice (or three if you count Brawl). Funky being prioritized isn’t the first time its happened either (Mario Kart Wii), and he also has that Dark Pit/Dr. Mario thing going for him like Dixie. However he isn’t as requested as the other two so he throws me off. So I lean towards 50/50 for him, he’s got more attention right now but it could mean nothing.

x5 Arcade Bunny

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Funky Kong want: 0% (4-10*)

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[RouffWestie]

Funky Kong

Chance: 10%

I don't think being playable in the Switch DKCTF port and an old Mario Kart game is enough.

Want: 100%

Listen, any additional DK content is more than fine by me.

Nominations; Lip x5

 

[Skyblade12]

Funky Kong: 0%
He's an additional easy mode in Tropical Freeze for the Switch, a port that would have been incredibly low profile during development, and is unlikely to have attracted Sakurai's attention, assuming they had even started work on that extra mode when Sakurai was looking for characters. Both Dixie and K. Rool fill the list of Nintendo All Stars that Sakurai looks for FAR more than Funky does. He has no chance.

Want: 0%
It feels rough rating him like that, but there are just far, far too many characters who should get in before him. He is a fairly nonsenical choice.