Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[slambros]

Mimikyu

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

There's much better choices to be made, and I'm sure the developers know that.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Mimikyu

Chance: 5% - One of the primary candidates for a Gen 7 Pokemon, but I personally don't see it. Mimikyu's main competition includes, but are not limited to: Decidueye, Incineroar, Tapu Koko, and Lycanroc. Even though Mimikyu offers some that the others do not, the others offer more. I'd honestly be surprised if we got Mimikyu.

Want: 0% - I've no attachment to Mimikyu, and I feel that there are better options for Pokemon newcomers.

Nominations: Slippy Toad.

 

[Deleted member]

Mimikyu

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

There's much better choices to be made, and I'm sure the developers know that.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

Loathe as I am to talk positively about Mimikyu, you should probably give a good reason if you're to give a relevant Nintendo-owned character a 0% chance.

 

[Aetheri]

Mimikyu

Chance: 5%
A lot of competition with other Alola mons...Mimikyu I feel would be perfect as a poke ball summon tbh and with other great choices that also stand out its hard to see it make it in as a playable character...

Want: 20%
It'd be neat...one of my favourite Alola pokemon but I'm not particularly excited about it nor would I be disappointed in its absense...

----

Funky Kong-14.80%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Mimikyu:
Chance: 55%
Has to compete with Decidueye, but the more I think about Mimikyu the more sense it makes. Someone compared him as the Wario to Pikachu's Mario, and I can kind of see that. Has arms so can feasibly pick things up, heavy promotion and a fan favourite of the Alola region thanks in part to the anime.

However he could just as easily be a Pokeball Pokemon and has to compete with Decidueye, Inciniroar, Lycanroc or possibly a Kanto Pokemon if the rumours of Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee version turn out to be true(have they been confirmed yet?)

Want: 60%
My favourite of the Alola options, which frankly isn't saying a lot. He has a unique body type, he's a ghost, and that Wario to Pikachu's Mario comment really stuck. He's kind of cute, kind of creepy and kind of appealing.

I certainly prefer him to Decidueye(whom is technically fine, just doesn't do anything for me), Lycanroc or upon thinking further the idea of a playable Eevee whom seems kind of clunky and unfaithful in every adaption I've read.

He's not my favourite Pikachu rival, nor my favourite Team Rocket Pokemon both of which are...

Nomination: Meowth X 5

Prediction: Funky Kong: 8.6%
Dixie and Cranky appeared last gen, but the new Funky mode may have got some pumped. Of course I imagine lots will downvote as K. Rool rools this board with only Dixie coming close to his popularity.

 

[Kotor]

Mimikyu

Chance: 65%
Another breakout Pokemon from Sun and Moon. Yadda yadda competing with Lycanroc, Incineroar, and Decidueye Rowlet. Japan loves Mimikyu, and its got a ton of merch there (Not Pikachu tier, but high enough among the Sun and Moon Pokemon.) Only other Gen VII Pokemon Japan loves more is Rowlet, but that one is ignored here in favor of its final evolution.

Want: 90%
I love the little guy. He was a member of my main team in Moon, and would probably return if I ever get Ultra Moon. I'd be alright if it was only included as a Poke Ball. Playable character would be wonderful though.

Nomation
Rowlet x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I can definitely see Mimikyu being briefly considered with how marketed the Pokemon is in Sun & Moon marketing. Mimikyu is certainly one of The Pokemon Company’s most central Pokemon right now. However, I feel Sakurai will seriously consider Alola Pokemon with the most striking designs that would be more suitably designed as fighters like Decidueye and Lycanroc. In the process of elimination of potential Pokemon newcomer candidates, I think Mimikyu will be left behind. I can see Mimikyu being a Pokeball summon at best.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Graizen]

Mimikyu
Chances: 30%
Want: 100%

Impressed that I do not see many people talking about it.
Extremely famous in this generation, similar to Pikachu but with very different attacks.
I really think he would be perfect for the game.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[Opossum]

Mimikyu!

Chance: 20%
Lots of competition all around, and its physiology combined with its gimmick could be awkward (immunity on the costume head for a short while, but...the head makes up most of its body?). Honestly I think it's a shoo in for a Poké Ball summon though!

Want: 0%
I may support Decidueye, but I legitimately love Mimikyu in the games. So why the zero percent?

Because Pokémon in Smash are based on their anime counterparts, and I LOATHE anime!Mimikyu. It takes the sad-but-with-an-undertone-of-creepy backstory it had in the games and bastardized it into some edgy killer bull****. I could complain about how awful the Sun and Moon anime is and how it's notably terrible in comparison to earlier seasons (which is saying something on its own...) but it's mostly irrelevant.

Predicting a 19 for Flame Runner
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Mimikyu da yo

Chance - 30%

Once again,

I think we overrated Decidueye to hell and back. Myself included.

Along with Lycanroc, Mimikyu is easily one of the most promoted Pokemon of this generation, getting his own little rap diddy, being one of Team Rocket's main Pokemon in the anime, being the only non-starter Gen VII Pokemon to appear in Pokken in someway, all that good stuff. Alongside that, he's super popular.

However, I think the main thing it holding it back is not only its competition against numerous other Pokemon in a similar spot, but also its claim to fame: being how it is entirely based around a Pokemon already existing in the roster. In the case that Smash 5 goes through a similar case of Smash 4 where Sakurai is presented numerous Gen VII Pokemon designs and can choose a few of them to think about, I really doubt Mimikyu would be a top pick.

It's a popular Pokemon for sure, but I think that is what a lot of it is riding on.

Want - 30%

I honestly love Mimikyu, he was one of my stars on my Sun and Moon team, despite how terrible I found those games to be. He also certainly has the moveset potential for being in Smash, shadow claws, whacking a stick around, a disguise gimmick, all that good stuff.

However, the idea of giving what is essentially just a bootlegged Pikachu an entirely new moveset kind of puts a bad taste in my mouth. It'd be like if Dark Pit or Dr. Mario got fully decloned movesets. As a Smash fan, it just kind of seems like a waste of development time.

Nominations:
[Rerate] King K. Rool x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Mimikyu Chance: 40%

It's one of the most highly promoted Pokemon, is very prominent in the anime right now, and also have a huge fan following. Problem is, plenty of other Pokemon have these things going for them as well, and arguably considerably more so than Mimikyu. I also just can't personally picture a Mimkyu being a fighter in this game without it looking very awkward. Of course, Sakurai could potentially find a way around it, but we have no way of knowing if he has or has tried. So for me, personally, I can't rate this Pokemon very high owing to all that.

Still, it's popularity and prominence shouldn't be underestimated, either. It's not highly likely to get in, but it's also far from being an impossible newcomer.

Want: 50%

Wouldn't be disappointed if this is what we got, but there are other Pokemon I'd rather have, too.

Every Single Mario Kart Wii Player's Worst Nightmare Prediction: 14%

^AKA, my Funky Kong prediction.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[ssbashworld]

Mimikyu
Chances: 40%
Want: 60%

Do not have much to say since I do not play pokemon but mimikyu seems like a decent character with some potential and seems decently popular but I could also see a different Pokemon rep being chosen.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[VexTheHex]

A little curious @ the Lycanroc supporters calling Mimikyu out on "not working" when the quadruped has no hands to use items and would be the 2nd canine running around on all 4 but without a bird to make use of the items.

And @ the Decidueye supporter claims calling out Mimikyu for having competition to give low chance scores while they voted Decidueye in the 80-90's in %. Clearly no bias there.

And the claims that Mimikyu's popularity means nothing or isn't as worthy as other Pokemon. Well Decidueye is the least popular final stage, Ash's hasn't evolved (for the references to the anime), and Incineroar has taken the limelight in terms of the starters in the anime. Really and truly, only Pokken and archer playstyle (which we don't know if Sakurai would want to explore) are in Decidueye's favor. And Decidueye's popularity in the Smash community exploded more so cause of his inclusion in Pokken making people think he is a lock in Smash. Just like how flimsy Rex & Pyra's popularity is once people started realizing they may of came along too late to get in. Now the supporters are jumping ship to Elma. Decidueye doesn't have anime importance or popularity in comparison to others to be blunt. He still has a solid chance though, but I don't get putting down the others for competition when the bird score huge scores while also facing the same stiff competition besides blunt bias in scores.

 

[Deleted member]

A little curious @ the Lycanroc supporters calling Mimikyu out on "not working" when the quadruped has no hands to use items and would be the 2nd canine running around on all 4 but without a bird to make use of the items.

And @ the Decidueye supporter claims calling out Mimikyu for having competition to give low chance scores while they voted Decidueye in the 80-90's in %. Clearly no bias there.

Let's just ignore every other argument against Mimikyu that people mentioned ITT. Clearly no bias there.
I did take the competition into account when I rated Decidueye, by the way. I admittedly overrated him, but I feel that he doesn't face as many obstacles as Mimikyu does.

And the claims that Mimikyu's popularity means nothing or isn't as worthy as other Pokemon. Well Decidueye is the least popular final stage, Ash's hasn't evolved (for the references to the anime), and Incineroar has taken the limelight in terms of the starters in the anime. Really and truly, only Pokken and archer playstyle (which we don't know if Sakurai would want to explore) are in Decidueye's favor. And Decidueye's popularity in the Smash community exploded more so cause of his inclusion in Pokken making people think he is a lock in Smash. Just like how flimsy Rex & Pyra's popularity is once people started realizing they may of came along too late to get in. Now the supporters are jumping ship to Elma. Decidueye doesn't have anime importance of popularity in comparison to others to be blunt. He still has a solid chance though, but I don't get putting down the others for competition when the bird score huge scores while also facing the same stiff competition besides blunt bias in scores.

I can't speak for others, but I feel that there are many factors that give Decidueye the edge over most of its competitors, case and point being Mimikyu, whose moveset potential isn't quite as easy to visualize as Decidueye's. I'm not Sakurai, but based on what he has previosuly said I feel that would be his thought process.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Mimikyu

Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

Funky Kong Prediction: 28.78%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Luminario]

My boy Mimikyu~

Chance:65%
Beloved as soon as it's design and backstory were released, one of the most pushed Gen 7, completely unique Disguise gimmick and movepool that allows for a plethora of interpretations for unique potential, and acts as an antithesis to Pikachu, essentially the Wario to Pokemon's Mario, giving it longevity where others would dull over time and next Gens. The only reason I haven't put it's chances higher is cause I don't really trust Sakurai, cause he's made some pretty questionable decisions in the past.
Want: 100%
One of my top 3 most wanted.

The problem I have with it is the following: it has no limbs or its own mouth to use. How will it use attacks or hold items? I know its ghost/fairy - typings full of special moves to use so I can somewhat see a special moveset based around that, but the rest? I usually don't care for "how will this character hold items, swim, etc.?" but for this character it is a genuine question. If it had the psychic typing it could maneuver out of that problem, but I don't think the ghost typing can give it that kind of privilege.

I think I know how those types of obstacles might be overcome. For items, the tail can easily be replaced with the current held item so that you can always see what you're holding. For swimming, it can be animated to look like it's swimming along jellyfish-style with the bottom of the disguise pushing it along. For ledge holding, it can hang upside down with it's claws hanging onto the ledge. Dodging can make it fade into shadows for a second. Grabbing has it use Lets Snuggle Together to bring the opponent under its disguise Yoshi-style.

For variety in attacks, Mimikyu has it's claws, big head, wooden tail, ghostly shadows, and various interpretations of the moves it can learn like Dark Pulse, Will o Wisp, and Dazzling Gleam, and those are just it's normals. For specials and FS you got Astonish, Feint Attack, Pain Split, Embargo, Thief, Curse, Play Rough, Destiny Bond, Baby Doll Eyes, Hone Claws, and the other 2 Z moves that most suit it: Never Ending Nightmare and Twinkle Tackle.

I've seen quite a few people on here say things along the lines of "Mimikyu is too awkward to work in Smash" or "There's too many obstacles" but I don't think that's true at all. Yes, it's unorthodox design means you have to think it through a bit more, bit it really doesn't take much effort at all to fill out it's entire moveset with attacks that suit it and make it unique.

Also I nominate Primarina x5.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Mimikyu
Chance: 5% - Decidueye exists.
Want: 0% - I'll pass. It doesn't even have limbs! How is it going to fight?

Prediction: Funky Kong
Chance: 16.93%
Want: 29.71%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit

 

[Deleted member]

Mimikyu
Chance: 5% - Decidueye exists.

Lycanroc
Chance: 5% - Decidueye and Mimikyu exist. Role in the anime be damned.

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Mimikyu

Chance: 25%
Popular current gen pokemon, but they have decent competition.

Want: 50%
I would prefer Decidueye but Mimikyu is cool too.

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Cosmic77]

A little curious @ the Lycanroc supporters calling Mimikyu out on "not working" when the quadruped has no hands to use items and would be the 2nd canine running around on all 4 but without a bird to make use of the items.

And @ the Decidueye supporter claims calling out Mimikyu for having competition to give low chance scores while they voted Decidueye in the 80-90's in %. Clearly no bias there.

And the claims that Mimikyu's popularity means nothing or isn't as worthy as other Pokemon. Well Decidueye is the least popular final stage, Ash's hasn't evolved (for the references to the anime), and Incineroar has taken the limelight in terms of the starters in the anime. Really and truly, only Pokken and archer playstyle (which we don't know if Sakurai would want to explore) are in Decidueye's favor. And Decidueye's popularity in the Smash community exploded more so cause of his inclusion in Pokken making people think he is a lock in Smash. Just like how flimsy Rex & Pyra's popularity is once people started realizing they may of came along too late to get in. Now the supporters are jumping ship to Elma. Decidueye doesn't have anime importance or popularity in comparison to others to be blunt. He still has a solid chance though, but I don't get putting down the others for competition when the bird score huge scores while also facing the same stiff competition besides blunt bias in scores.

Disagree with the Lycanroc part, but @Lampy beat me to it.

I'll agree with you on your points about Decidueye though. Honestly, Decidueye is probably one of the most overrated characters in the "chance" rating. It's not really fair for people to rate him as the second most-likely character when they also acknowledge stiff competition from Lycanroc and Mimikyu (both of which should also probably have lower "chance" ratings).

 

[Deleted member]

Mimikyu

Chance: 15%
Popular pikaclone with personality. Highly promoted to boot. Imo Lycanroc is more likely since it's Ash's ace this gen, but Mimikyu at least has ghost hands, so that's something.

Want: 100%
Another one of my favorite Pokemon.

Nominating Tingle x5

Funky mode prediction: 9.34%

 

[harukaamami]

Mimikyu

Chance: 80%
One of the most popular Alola Pokemon worldwide, only matched by Rowlet. Unlike Rowlet, it has a considerable potential that no other character represents. The thing is that people ignore that he actually has very long shadow arms underneath its Pikachu costume, these are actually extremely versatile and would allow for plenty of interesting animations.

Want: 100%
My most wanted Pokemon by far.

Mimikyu:The problem I have with it is the following: it has no limbs or its own mouth to use.

Mimikyu has long arms, actually. Are you familiar with Pokemon?

Honestly, all these people wondering how Mimikyu would work just make me question if they're familiar with the games or the anime. Just look at how far its arm can stretch, it's almost like a whip: https://youtu.be/fGCZ5F79Jmc?t=358

 

[MrRoidley]

Mimikyu!
Chance: 80% - I firmly stand that Mimikyu is the most likely Alola Pokémon to get in, because of how Game Freak/the anime put them in the forefront
Want: 100% - it's just the best option imo

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

I think the only onther rating I did was for Decideueye so this is fitting lol.

Chance : 65%

Wanted to say 70+ but that's pushing and anything less than 50 feels wrong so I think that's safe. I am 99% sure we will get a Gen 7 rep so that's taken care of. It's just comes down to who. And as everyone has said a million times the three most likely are Decideueye, Lycanroc and Mimikyu. Mimikyu is perfect for the game, where as I see some faults with Lycanroc and Decideueye. But can't deny it's competion. Honestly that's the only thing holding it back.

Watch we get a completely different gen 7 Pokemon XD.

Want: 100%

It's my favorite Pokemon. So yea lol. It's also my two favorite types and I am so hype to have a ghost type Pokemon playable. Side note, I'd also be super happy with Decideueye, so either way I'll be getting a ghost type (sorry Lycanroc, get outta here).

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Mimikyu

Chance 50%
Want 0%

He’s cute but I’m not that interested, he’s definitely a juggernaut (popularity-wise).

x5 Lara Croft

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Mimikyu:
Chance: 20%
Competish, but not unfeasible

Want: 80%
I'd like myself some darker characters than the army of wahoo-warriors we have now

Balloon Fighter x5

Funko Pop: 14.4%

 

[harukaamami]

I just realized that Mimikyu is as much of a Super-Skrull/Dhalsim stretchy arm archetype character as Decidueye is an archer. We don't have the stretchy arm archetype in Smash.

 

[Ze Diglett]

I just realized that Mimikyu is as much of a Super-Skrull/Dhalsim stretchy arm archetype character as Decidueye is an archer. We don't have the stretchy arm archetype in Smash.

That may be true, but even so, it's only a matter of time before Spring Man (or any other ARMS character) steals the spotlight in that regard.

 

[Delzethin]

A little curious @ the Lycanroc supporters calling Mimikyu out on "not working" when the quadruped has no hands to use items and would be the 2nd canine running around on all 4 but without a bird to make use of the items.

I've personally addressed this issue with Lycanroc before, how the Dusk form's quadrupedal build could still viably interact with items

I can't speak for everyone here, but I did touch on that before. My concern with Mimikyu working in Smash's environment is more of a general thing than it is anything regarding items in particular. Not saying it'd be impossible to find a workaround, but it'd likely be a lot tougher to make work than something like Lycanroc carrying items and wielding weapons with its mouth.

And the claims that Mimikyu's popularity means nothing or isn't as worthy as other Pokemon. Well Decidueye is the least popular final stage, Ash's hasn't evolved (for the references to the anime), and Incineroar has taken the limelight in terms of the starters in the anime. Really and truly, only Pokken and archer playstyle (which we don't know if Sakurai would want to explore) are in Decidueye's favor. And Decidueye's popularity in the Smash community exploded more so cause of his inclusion in Pokken making people think he is a lock in Smash. Just like how flimsy Rex & Pyra's popularity is once people started realizing they may of came along too late to get in. Now the supporters are jumping ship to Elma. Decidueye doesn't have anime importance or popularity in comparison to others to be blunt. He still has a solid chance though, but I don't get putting down the others for competition when the bird score huge scores while also facing the same stiff competition besides blunt bias in scores.

I've also made it a point that I do not rely on popularity as an argument for inclusion, not even for characters I personally like. Prominence is something I pay attention to, but it only seems to help a character be considered, not push them through the gate and ignore potential issues. The latter gets confused for the former constantly...which says something about how much we all overfocus on popularity in newcomer speculation, that we attribute unrelated stuff to it.

I wasn't here for Decidueye, so I can't speak for that. If anything, Decidueye's status as a starter of a type that isn't in Smash yet is the source of much of its support; getting into Pokkén was unrelated to that. Though it's worth mentioning that the most prominent 'mon in the anime this saga isn't a starter.

 

[harukaamami]

MIMIKYU HAS ARMS WITH HANDS.

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 33%
It's tied with Lycanroc and Decidueye for a spot. They all have their merits and their problems with getting added. There's no real way to call it one way or the other in my eyes.
Want: 0%
I dislike Sun and Moon and would be ok with not getting a pokemon from those games.

noms: Ray x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Mimikyu

Chance: 40%
Honestly, I think Mimikyu's chances are decent nya~ He's pretty popular and has potential nya... but competes with Decidueye and Lycanroc nya~

Want: 90%
My most wanted Pokemon character nya~ It's cute, kinda spoopy, and has the whole "dresses up as pikachu because it's forever nyalone" thing going for it nya~ Naturally I'd wanya punch its face and watch it cry nya.

Nyominations
Eevee: x5

 

[harukaamami]

The next person who wants to make a post about Mimikyu being unable to manipulate items, please watch this video.

 

[AustarusIV]

Mimikyu
Chance: 40%
I might be somewhat generous on this prediction, but seeing as how much of a breakout this Pokémon has become to the fandom on both sides of the Pacific I'm willing to consider Mimikyu a serious darkhorse candidate for Smash Switch. And hey, it's part Ghost-type, that should make it look interesting enough for Sakurai to consider IMO.

Want: 55%
I'm personally indifferent towards it's chances, but I know some friends who would howl with joy if Mimikyu were confirmed, so, I'm for it moreso for their sake.

 

[Yokta]

Alright, I guess I'll throw in my two cents.

I think Mimikyu has an 18% chance.

The Pokéball item exists for a reason, and it's so that characters like Mimikyu can be represented without crowding out the roster. We're unlikely to get more than one Pokémon fighter from this generation, and it's not going to be a blob wearing sackcloth.

My Want for Mimikyu is at 28%
I admit it would be hilarious if Mimikyu's Final Smash was to take off its disguise and immediately KO everyone on the battlefield, but that's a flimsy justification at best.

Votes: +5 Concept: DLC Announcers

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Mimikyu:
Chance: 40%
Has competition with Decidueye(mah boi) and Lycanroc, but he has plenty of merit to him with a unique moveset with all the shadowy arms that he can do. And as someone said, he could fill in a Dhalsim-like role.

Want: 100%
Decidueye is my pick, but I still root for Mimikyu as it is so cute, wicked, and would make for a fun character.

x5 to Lip

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Already made a rating, but I'm interested in how the initial wave of posts for this day was Pro-Mimikyu, while the latter has become Anti-Mimikyu. Surely, this will make up an interesting score for chance and want. (not that it'll matter in the long run)

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Mimikyu:

Chance: 15%

Lycanroc still feels like the most likely Pokemon newcomer to me, as it fills every criteria Sakurai has said he looks for in Pokemon, but that's something Mimikyu does too! Just... too a lesser extent.

I saw Delzethin compare Lycanroc to the "Robin" of this speculation era, somebody of high merit that people were passing over in favor of a more obvious choice (Decidueye). Using that example, Mimikyu reminds me of Tharja. A character with massive popularity, plenty of moveset potential, but just doesn't have as much widespread popularity. Also much like Tharja.

Want: 15%
It creeps me out. Not anywhere near the same level as Tharja, but I still really dislike it's portrayal in the anime. (And the new Pokemon anime in general but that's off topic) I feel like the potential is there for the little creep to grow on me, but I don't that's gonna happen until after I see it in Smash Bros.

Noms: x5 Slippy

 

[Autumn ♫]

Mimikyu!

Chance:45%
Mimikyu has arguably been given the biggest amount of promotion for Gen 7, and is pretty frickin popular as well.

Want: 75%
Mimikyu's frickin adorable, and definitely has the potential to become extremely unique. Why wouldn't I want her?

 

[colder_than_ice]

Mimikyu
Chance: 25% - Mimikyu became an instant star almost immediately after it's announcement with the internet exploding with fan art of the little guy. Nintendo's also been marketing it hard with it's own Z-move, music video, and a major role in the anime. There's obviously still a lot of competition for a Pokemon slot but I wouldn't be too surprised if Mimikyu pulled off a dark horse victory.
Want: 90%

Funky Kong prediction: 8%

Nominations: Eevee x5