Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Strider_Bond00J]

The real Lucas -
Chance: 75%
He's a fan favourite character, even though he was DLC this time around, but I think given that Ness and Lucas are some of Mother/EarthBound's most recognisable characters, I think he's got a decent chance, even if the Mother/EarthBound series is wrapped up for good at this point.

Want: 100%
I think Lucas is worth keeping, personally - Although a semi-clone of Ness, I think he's earned his place amongst the Smash Bros heroes.

Not even bothering with this faker. Double 0s for the other Lucas.

Nominating:
Miles 'Tails' Prower X5 (Unless we rated him already and I didn't know)

 

[fogbadge]

i surprised the movie character even had enough nominations

anyway, lucas

chances: 70% i think its likely he'll be back but theres always a chance he wont

want: 100% i may never have played mother 3 but i love playing as him in smash

id like to abstain from the other one

 

[Wyoming]

Chance: 80%
I'd say his chances of returning are more likely than not, but there is the stigma that he was cut before due to low priority hanging over his head since he is from a dormant series. To counter this, you can state his popularity brought him back and he is now a two-game veteran. It will be interesting to see how they handle him and other DLC characters as I doubt people want to pay twice for them nor do I think Nintendo will do that. It's in or out for him, in my opinion.

Want - 85%
He's cool. A nice take on Ness' moveset and he has his place in the roster.

Greninja: 88.6%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chance: 99%
He's in Sm4sh and a popular veteran. Fans wanted him back and although he ranked lower in demand than both Mewtwo and Roy, he still out prioritised Wolf.

That 1% not is just because he was cut before being added back.

Want: 5%
OK, not going to lie; Lucas is the only DLC character I didn't bother buying. His play style did little for me, mild saltiness over Mother 3's massive delay in the west and the Brawl vet I wanted back was Wolf.
Part of me also still thinks Mothers such a niche series that it getting two similar characters feels pointless. Yeah I know functionally in high end play they play differently, and Lucas was originally meant to replace Ness but eh. If it was Porky with a walking mecha that would have been more interesting and vastly different.

I don't have this unconditional love for veterans just because they're veterans that I see a lot of people have, I'd quite happily cut almost a third of the veterans without blinking an eyelid. Not even my beloved Mario series is immune to that...

Lucas(The Wizard)
Chance: So bad. 0%

Want: So bad. 55%
I'm actually not against the Power Glove getting into Smash in some context. Maybe Master Hand could wear it as a mega super ultimate final boss.

Greninja Prediction: 93.5%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[skylanders fan]

chance 85%
veteran and I feel after just being dlc he has a decent chance of returing
want 95%
don't really play as him but feels odd without him in Smash

lucus (wizard)
chance 5%
yeah just no

want 20%
just for the wtf reactions

greninja
65% if a pokemon gets cut its him

nom
funkey kong x5

 

[Deleted member]

Lucas(vet)
Chance:70%
Want:100%
Never should have left the main roster imho.

Lucas(actor)
Chance and want: 0%
Literally who?

Prediction:
Greninja-68.7%

Noms:
Sable Prince x2
Tora and poppi x3

 

[jamesster445]

Lucas

Chance- 75%
Want- 100%

People like him, let them be happy.

Lucas
Chance- 0%
Want- 100%

He's so bad

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Cycrum]

Lucas

Chance: 80%
Lucas is in a bit of a weird situation. Despite his series being dead and his game not being released anywhere except Japan, he has still found a considerable fanbase, especially when it comes to his portrayal in Super Smash Bros. This is the reason why he came back as DLC despite his irrelevance overall. He is also now a two-time veteran, making him somewhat of a priority, although he is still not safe since veterans like him have been in danger of being cut before, like Jigglypuff in Brawl. The overwhelmingly positive response from his inclusion as a DLC fighter will likely make him a bit of a higher priority, though.

Want: 100%
It would feel weird not having him in the game, and he is enjoyable to play as.

Lucas (The Wizard)

Chance: 0%
His movie is so bad, and it has fallen into nearly absolute obscurity. He also does not hail from a video game.

Want: 0%
I don't want this guy to be the one to open the floodgates for non-video game characters.

Predictions:
Greninja: 89.7%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[DBPirate]

Lucas

Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

I'm of the opinion that this game used to just be an enhanced port and therefore, most if not all of the characters from 4 will be returning but there's a possibility that's not the case. He's not my absolute favorite character, but I do enjoy playing as him and I think every character from 64/Melee/Brawl that's made it this far shouldn't leave the series. Ever.

Other Lucas

Don't know who that is so abstain.

Nominations: Viridi x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lucas is one of the highly requested veterans that returned in Smash 4 as DLC. I feel that he still is in the chopping block, in the scenario that cuts have to be taken due to time constraints and his series not being relevant anymore. At least, it will be easier to implement Lucas in the game thanks to the likelihood of Sakurai reusing Smash 4 assets to Smash Switch, but he does not feel like a character who would be on top priority for development.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[DaUsername]

Lucas
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

The Cooler Lucas
Chance: It's so bad. (0%)
Want: It's so bad. (100%)

Greninja prediction: 77%
Noms: Transformation characters x5

 

[Kotor]

Lucas
Chance: 80%
Want: 10%
There's always a chance that Lucas may not return to the base roster if he's deemed low priority The series is done according to its creator. If that happens, would he return as paid DLC again, or as part of a free update?

I don't particularly care about Lucas. I didn't weep when he was cut from the base Smash 4 roster. He's just another character for me to beat up.

Nominations
Marth and Roy get their English VAs x5

Lucas (The Wizard)
....Was this done so we wouldn't be rating just a veteran today?

 

[Deleted member]

Lucas

Chance: 66%
It's almost a certainty that there will be cuts; there's a reason why every Smash game has had them (even Smash 4, which built off of Brawl). Lucas is clearly low priority since he got cut from 4 in the first place. He's less popular than his peers, Mewtwo and Roy, and isn't even that similar to Ness so he's not as easy to develop as say, a full clone like Dark Pit or Lucina. His series is dead, and unlike Mewtwo and Roy, he doesn't have the backing of the Pokemon Company or Intelligence Systems. Even Wolf, who didn't return in Smash 4's DLC, had a big name game released since in Star Fox Zero. With all this in mind I find it hard to believe that Lucas isn't one of the lowest priority veterans, so it seems like he'd be one of the first on the chopping block. That said, he is still a veteran, so it's hard to give him too low of a score

Want: 70%
I used to like him a lot more in Brawl but something changed. I don't know what it was, although I still like him.

Double 0's to the other Lucas.

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

Greninja Prediction: 80.76%

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Lucas (Mother 3)

Chance: 70%
Definitely not a shoe in but I think he is someone they wouldnt want to just exclude this time around.

Want: 20%
I can live without him. That being said if he is there than cool. Id rather have him in the game than not be in.

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[RandomAce]

Lucas:

Chance: 90%
I can’t find a reason why the devs would want to remove Lucas after adding him back due to fan demand. That would be very ironic and it would cause a riot from fans. It would be unneccesary.

Want: 85%
Although I never played Mother 3 or gotten Lucas as DLC :’( I would defenitley love to play as him in Smash Switch. He just looks like a lot of fun to play as.

Nominations:
x5 Lycanroc

Although I wish we could do all the verterans in 1 day, I understand that it would be a f***load of work and would get complicated to calculate.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

BluePikmin11 where is your Lucas the wizard analysis hmmm?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Who is the Lucas Wizard you speak of?

 

[Sid-cada]

Lucas

Chance - 70% - An okay shot. He's a vet that was chosen for being more popular, but he still was almost cut in 4. It's hard to say. I feel cuts are a near inevitability, so he looks like he could be one.

Want - 70% - I like him, but I have to go without him I would be less upset than a number of other choices.


That other Lucas

Chance - 0% - ...Why are we rating him again? Blue Browser was enough of a joke day...

Want - 0% - *incomprehensible annoyed grumbling*


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Who is the Lucas Wizard you speak of?

A relic from one of the strangest NES marketing stunts of the 80s; a movie called The Wizard.

He is the main rival in the film and is an epic pro gamer who also is a master of the power glove. So, a joke character.
Neat tidbit- This movie was published by Universal, who is working with Nintendo for theme parks today. Maybe there is a chance after all

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 95%

Don't think he'll be cut twice in a row when he has as much Japanese popularity as he does.

Want: 60%

I want his specials changed, but I've come to accept him otherwise.

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Lucas
Chance: 70%
Cuts are most likely going to happen and Lucas boy was low priority in SSB4. Mother is a dead series and perhaps Sakurai will feel that only Ness is neccessary as he is one of the original 12. But he is still a veteran and his dlc probably sold well, so perhaps we will see his return.

Want: 80%
I don't want to see any character get cut, and Lucas was fine to play with.

The other Lucas
Double 0s
I should be glad I didn't watch that movie.

Greninja: 81.56%

x5 to Simon Belmont.

 

[Wyoming]

Update for the nominations

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Arle, pre-Lucas

Black Shadow x242
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x235
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x230
Agumon x225
Bomberman x217
Qbby x206
Lycanroc x206

199-150

Simon Belmont x196
Urban Champion x195
Dark Samus x189
Kamek x188
Sans x188
Funky Kong x182
Spyro x179
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x177
Azura (Fire Emblem) x176
Travis Touchdown x169
Mipha x168
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x165
Masked Link x163
KOS-MOS x162
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x156

149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Sylux x145
Gengar x136
Lip (Panel de Pon) x131
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x130
Concept: Skyrim representation x130
Parabo & Satebo x129
Linkle x125
Neku Sakuraba x124
Cranky Kong x120
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x118
Wonder Red x118
Mimikyu x115
Fawful x111
Thwomp x111
Octoling x110
Excitebiker x110
Ryu Hayabusa x110
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100


99-75

Papyrus x98
Tetra x96
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x95
Katrielle Layton x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Sakura Shinguji x83
2B (Nier: Automata) x82
Susie x81
Slippy Toad x80
Fjorm x75

74-50

Tom Nook x74
Sable Prince x72
Veronica x71
Klonoa x70
Django (Boktai) x70
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x70
Lloyd Irving x70
Labo related character x68
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x68
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x65
Tingle x61
Barbara x60
Steve x60
Zeraora (Pokémon) x59
Lara Croft x57
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Starfy x50

49-30:

Ray (Custom Robo) x48
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x45
Arcade Bunny x44
Gooey x42
Balloon Fighter x42
Concept: Wars character x41
Dragonite x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Primarina x30
Tails x30
Returning game mode: Smash Run x30
Snorlax x29
Toon Zelda x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Tora & Poppi x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Stage: New Donk City x25
Slime x25

24 and less:

Concept: Female Announcer x20
Ayumi Tachibana x20
DeMille x17
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Mach Rider x10
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x10
Scorpion x10
Concept: Transformation characters x10
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x7
Leon S. Kennedy x7
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Veteran: Corrin x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2

Changes:

Marth/Roy speaking English overtakes Agumon for 3rd
Bomberman overtakes Qbby for 5th
Starfy breaks 50 noms
Slime breaks 25 noms
New additions: Corrin, Saber, Orbulon, and Lark (all x5), Zangoose (x3)

 

[MrRoidley]

Lucas:
Chance: 70% - he was cut once, backlash was enough to make him DLC. but y'know, Mewtwo was cut twice in the past so there's always the chance Lucas can get this fate as well
Want: 70% - never played Mother 3, but he's cool

The other Lucas:
0% to both. I love The Wizard but come on lol. Plus the actor apparently has been in jail under sex offender charges which would be 0% nice for Smash or any game ever

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: Lucas (Mother) - 52%

I am wary of the chances of people cut once to a degree, as it obviously shows...well...they're willing to cut said character! Mother 3 is a good deal more popular in NA than Japan as far as I know, but at the same time Lucas' popularity did get him in on DLC, so his popularity is certainly a factor. He seems likely low priority, so if they are in need of a cut for space, he's a fairly likely choice. And from a more cynical standpoint, his popularity probably makes him a strong choice for sick post-launch DLC cash...

Want: Lucas (Mother) - 95%

I freaking LOVE Mother 3, my dream never-get-in character is The Masked Man from Mother 3, Lucas doesn't currently have an amazing set but it is still pretty fun, and character-wise I really want Lucas in. Lets go, boys!

Chances: Lucas (The Wizard) - 0.01%

Doesn't fit the criteria, although if they wanted to rep live action Nintendo movies for whatever reason then they could do it? I'll give it a token 0.01% because if they wanted to honor this, uh, "era" of Nintendo then he'd be their #1 choice, so there's that.

Want: Lucas (The Wizard) - 19%

Longer lasting meme potential than some other meme choices. Do you love the Power Glove? Is it so bad? It could probably be used to make a solid set, given Duck Hunt. I can think of worse.

Prediction

Greninja: 87%

Nominations

The Masked Man x3 (Mother 3)

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Lucas Chance: 65%
He's nigh guaranteed to be low priority.

Want: 0%

... Oh yeah, and double zeroes for the other Lucas too.

Greninja Prediction: 75%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Lucas

Chance: 90% - Was considered as a replacement for Ness in Melee, made it in Brawl, and although he got cut from Smash 4's base roster, he made it back as DLC due to fan demand. I honestly think Lucas being cut was strategic in order to sell him back as DLC, and now that he's been sold post-game once, I don't think it'll happen again. I'd be shocked if he wasn't on the base roster.

Want: 90% - Lucas getting cut was as surprising to me as Wolf getting cut was. And Lucas returning as the 'Brawl Veteran' over Wolf was something understandable, even to me. There really was a hole left in the roster without Lucas, and I was glad to see him return. Hopefully he won't be leaving Smash again any time soon.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Lucas
Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

Other Lucas gets double zeroes

Greninja Prediction: 82.59%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Pennate]

Lucas:

Chance: 85%

Want: 60%

Lucas:

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Nominations:
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Erureido]

Lucas

Chance: 85%

Being in two Smash games in a row, he feels quite likely. However, he only made it back into Smash 4 during its DLC-era, so something about that makes me a bit skeptical about him.

Want: 70%

He's a cool addition in Smash, but he's not exactly a veteran that I want to prioritize in seeing in the next Smash. If he returns, cool. If not, I'm not going to bothered very much.

------

Lucas

Chance and Want:

Regarding Chance:

Unlike the other Lucas we are familiar with, this Lucas is not even a video game character.

Regarding Want:

I have zero interest in this character.

------

Predictions

Greninja (Pokemon): 77.44%

He's still quite popular for a Pokemon, and while he isn't that promoted at the moment, the Ash-Greninja promotion did last in the early days of Sun and Moon's release because of the demo. Despite that, he feels like the Pokemon veteran from Smash 4 that is least likely to return.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[NIckynickreviews]

Lucas

Chance: 90%

Pretty safe tbh. Even taking out the fact that this is the smash game with the highest chance of no cuts, being a popular character in 2 smash games really help his case

Want: 50%

Wouldn't really care if he stays or goes

Nominations:

2B x2
Simon Belmont x1
Spyro x1
Bomberman x1

 

[Smasher 101]

Lucas (Mother 3)

Chance: 85%

While he was technically cut last game, he was quickly brought back as DLC which definitely says something, and is now a two time veteran. He's a popular one too, so I think there's a good shot he'll be higher priority this time around. I'm also personally not sure if there will even be cuts this time or not. That said, he was still temporarily out of the roster and his series is pretty dead, so there's a bit of a chance he'll be lower priority which could result in him missing out again.

Though even if he's not in I think he's pretty likely to just return as DLC.

Want: 100%

I'm not a fan of cuts and I've had fun fighting as the Mother stars.

Lucas (the Wizard)

DOUBLE ZEROES

Ah yes, I remember rating him in the Smash 4 RTC. Not only is he a non-video game character's who's rather obscure and unimportant, I recall that his actor grew up to be a not-so-great human being. The idea of his inclusion is so bad, it's terrible.

Greninja prediction: 82.36%

Nominations: Bomberman x5

 

[andimidna]

Lucas:
I think the game started as a port. This isn’t confirmed
Chance: 85%
Want: 99%

Irrel Lucas
0s

Greninja prediction: 79%
x3 Azura
x2 Veronica

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Lucas

Chances: 90% - if he doesn't make base roster, he'll be DLC like before. I have a feeling that Wolf and Roy will forever be part of that unholy DLC-agle


Want: 100% - I love playing as him so no reason to continue cutting people I like


the other Lucas:


Chances and Want: 0% - Who?


Nominations:

Gengar x2
Zeraora
Zangoose x2

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Mother Lucas

Chance- 80%
Want- 100%

He's a veteran, nuff said.

Meme Lucas

Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

Not a gaming character and the movie was always overrated trash.

Prediction for Greninja: 80%

Nominations- Sans x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Yo so there is a blackout on my school.

Day will go a bit late until the morning.

 

[TheFritzle]

Lucas (The Good One) Chance:
95%
I'm under the impression that no characters are going to get cut between Sm4sh and Smash Switch, with the exceptions of clones and third-parties. The fact that he was brought back from DLC without the ballot means that Sakurai was intending him to be in the base game, but ran out of time. I guess I could see this happening, but if he isn't in the base game, he 100% would be re-added as DLC.

Want:
100%
I don't want anyone to get cut, it would just feel off.

Lucas (The Other One) Chance:
0%
⠠⠙⠊⠑

Want:
0%

Greninja Prediction:
85.16%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lucas
Chance: 80% - He's a very popular veteran, but he was DLC before.
Want: 90% - He has my full support.

Lucas the Wiz-

Double Zeroes

Greninja prediction: 83%
Nominations: Azura x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Lucas (Mother 3)

Chance: 79%

- He did come back as a DLC character and he still has plenty of support.

Want: 0%

- I don’t use him and I wouldn’t miss him at all. I’m fine with cuts.

The Other Lucas

Chance & Want: Abstain

- I don’t know anything about this Lucas so i’ll refrain from giving him a score.

Prediction

Greninja: 89%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x1

 

[ZealousGamer]

Lucas (Earthbound)

Chance 75%: He is likely but maybe not base game.

Want 50%: I never really had any connection to Earthbound.

Lucas (Other)

Chance 0%: He isn't a video game character.

Want 0%: Same as above.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x

 

[Mighty Moose]

Lucas (Mother 3)

Chance: 85%
He's a popular veteran character with a solid niche filled out for himself in Smash

Want: 75%
I wouldn't be massively upset if cut but it'd be cooler if he was in.