Chances: Lucas (Mother) - 52%
I am wary of the chances of people cut once to a degree, as it obviously shows...well...they're willing to cut said character! Mother 3 is a good deal more popular in NA than Japan as far as I know, but at the same time Lucas' popularity did get him in on DLC, so his popularity is certainly a factor. He seems likely low priority, so if they are in need of a cut for space, he's a fairly likely choice. And from a more cynical standpoint, his popularity probably makes him a strong choice for sick post-launch DLC cash...
Want: Lucas (Mother) - 95%
I freaking LOVE Mother 3, my dream never-get-in character is The Masked Man from Mother 3, Lucas doesn't currently have an amazing set but it is still pretty fun, and character-wise I really want Lucas in. Lets go, boys!
Chances: Lucas (The Wizard) - 0.01%
Doesn't fit the criteria, although if they wanted to rep live action Nintendo movies for whatever reason then they could do it? I'll give it a token 0.01% because if they wanted to honor this, uh, "era" of Nintendo then he'd be their #1 choice, so there's that.
Want: Lucas (The Wizard) - 19%
Longer lasting meme potential than some other meme choices. Do you love the Power Glove? Is it so bad? It could probably be used to make a solid set, given Duck Hunt. I can think of worse.
Prediction
Greninja: 87%
Nominations
The Masked Man x3 (Mother 3)