Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[-crump-]

Lucas
Chance: 70%
I just don’t see them chopping him for a second time, considering the backlash from fans after he was cut from Smash 4. I know that not everyone is safe, but I’m feeling very confident that Lucas won’t be removed again.

Want: 70%
I don’t have any real attatchement to him, I just don’t like seeing characters cut. Admittedly though, I wouldn’t be crushed if he didn’t return.

Lucas
Chance: 0%
Fun fact: The guy that played Lucas is now a convicted sex offender.

Want: 1%
This idea... It’s so bad.

I wouldn’t mind a Power Glove item, though!

Noms:
Tingle x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Lucas
Chance: 99%
He has repeat veteran's insurance. I'm confident he'll stay.

Want: 95%
I, personally, don't care for the character much, but if he were to get dropped again, it would kind of be a massive slap in the face to any of his fans, like if they droppedoragain, so I hope he stays for their sake. Besides, his moveset's different enough from Ness's that I feel he's earned his slot by this point.

Lucas...?
Chance & Want: 0%
What...?

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[Deleted member]

Nominating Veteran: Mewtwo x5

We're rating him in 2 days tho

 

[Runic_SSB]

Lucas

Chance: 90%
I doubt they'd bring him back just to cut him again.

Want: 80%
I like him.

Lucas

Chance: 100%
What do you think Master Hand is?

Want: 100%
He's so bad.

Greninja prediction: 75%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok gonna post my scores and end the day, please rate greninja and predict mewtwo can’t calc I am traveling.

Real Lucas
99% Chance
100% Want

Joke Lucas
0% Chance
0% Want


Nominating Spyro x5


Day over gren day start

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Greninja:
95%
I really don't see any reason for him to be cut, Pokemon is a big franchise that can keep all of its reps and he is unique and popular. Next.

Want: 100%
I want my shinobi frog back.

Mewtwo: 85%

x5 to Simon Belmont.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Greninja

Chance- 80%
Considering how popular he used to be, I think he is pretty safe. Lucario made it from Brawl to 4, why wouldn't Greninja make the jump?

Want- 80%
Veteran, and he was a character I was really anticipating back in the day.

Mewtwo- 76.62%

Funky Kong X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[fogbadge]

greninja

chances: 90% i think its very likely he'll return but you never know

want: 75% i dont think id be to upset if we lost him but hed still fun to have around

 

[Cycrum]

Greninja

Chance: 90%
Greninja was at the height of its popularity not long before Smash for Switch supposedly began development, and it represents water starters and Generation VI quite well. (besides Mega Evolutions, of course) Also, being a character who plays uniquely also gives it a great advantage, as the only unique characters to be cut thus far were either due to technical limitations, licensing issues, or low priority, (which was likely due to lack of relevance) so this ninja frog is pretty safe.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my favorite Generation VI Pokemon, and my favorite water starter overall. I would hate to see Greninja get cut.

Predictions:
Mewtwo: 80.12%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Greninja

Chance: 100%

Want: 0%

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Greninja Chance: 90%

If Lucario and Charizard stayed on the roster after their initial Smash debut, I don't see why Greninja wouldn't stay as well.

Want: 100%

One of my favorite starter Pokémon and one of the newcomers I was most happy to see. I supported the froggy ninja for the game, but initially believed he was far too new to get into the game and thought that it was a pipe-dream at best. You have no idea how shocked and overjoyed I was when that Pokémon suddenly revealed itself as a newcomer in the same trailer Charizard was shown off in. Please bring my Greninja back.

Mewtwo Prediction: 89%

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I personally doubt that Greninja will be on the cutting block due to him being a very unique character and being very popular in both the Pokemon/Smash 4 competitive community. I think that him being cut will only happen in the scenario Game Freak decides to heavily control the Pokemon selection in Smash Switch, which I do not see happening. He is a safe return in my personal perspective.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Greninja
Chance: 100%
People kept saying Lucario was going last game, and that never happened. Greninja is one of the most popular Pokémon out there, and he's got a completely unique moveset. I can't think of a single reason he'd be cut.
Want: 100%
Greninja is my favorite Pokémon.

Mewtwo Prediction: 90.21%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Greninja
Chance: 97%
He doesn't have repeat veteran's insurance, so there's always the slim chance he'll go due to lack of """relevance,""" but I doubt that'll happen considering all the other Pokemon have stuck around thus far (except Pokemon Trainer, and even then, a trace of him remained in the form of Charizard). The frog's staying.

Want: 98%
I have no real attachment to the character (I was #TeamFennekin in the XY days and was a bit salty when I saw Froakie's final evo turned out to be so much cooler than ours), but he seems pretty cool. He's one of the least deserving newcomers to get cut, in my opinion, and I'd at least be a little sad to see him go.

Mewtwo Prediction: 97%

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Greninja:

Chance: 90%

Want: 50%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Greninja

Chance - 95% - While we could get a repeat of Mewtwo, I don't think that's likely to occur. Otherwise, he seems to be in good standing, being quite popular and unique.

Want - 95% - While his cut won't be supper devastating, I really do like his inclusion.


Predictions

Mewtwo - 96.46% - Speaking of, this should be seen as interesting.


Nominaitons
Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Chance: 99%
Want: 50%

Greninja's popularity only went up after Sm4sh's release, and was at its apex around the time they'd have started dev of Smash 5. No way he's out.

Gren's cool enough I guess. I'm totally indifferent though. I do prefer a lot of the others, though, so if it came down to getting Gren back or getting Squirtle back, I wouldn't hesitate to run the frog under the bus.

Prediction for Mewtwo: 89.9%
Nom: Skyrim x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Greninja

Chance: 76%
I don’t think he’s gonna be cut, but he is the least popular out of all the Pokémon in Smash, and he might be replaced by another starter from the latest generation.

Want: 55%
I like the guy, I like his moveset, he can stay. Wouldn’t mind greatly if he got cut, but I would like if there were no cuts.

Mewtwo prediction: 81%

Nominations
Mach RiderX5

 

[Ura]

Greninja or as he was known from his Smash 4 trailer, Not Mewtwo

Chance: 85%

Really confident in his return though I do think there's a chance he could get cut.

Want: 60%

Meh. I wouldn't be bothered by his absence though I don't want him gone.

Prediction: Mewtwo

Chance: 88%
Want: 95%

Nominations

Masked Link X 3
Bomberman X 2

 

[Opossum]

I'm gonna go as far as giving Greninja double 100%s.

He's a massively popular Pokémon from a casual and competitive standpoint within the Pokémon community. GameFreak even continues to promote him well into Generation VII. He's safe.

Predicting a 91 for Mewtwo
Nominating English Marth x5

 

[RyanChip]

Lana

Chance: 30%
I think she isn't going to make it, but i have to give her a chance

Want: 95%
She's one of my favorite characters in the zeldoa series (Hyrule Warriors) and her move-set would be stunning

Nominations: Tom Nook x5

 

[RandomAce]

Greninja:

Chance: 95%

I see no reason for him to get removed. Greninja was and still is a very popular pokemon especially during the “beginning” of Smash 5’s development, plus he is also a very unique character in the pokemon roster. So I don’t think he’ll get removed.

Want: 85%

I like the water frog. Although I don’t play as him as much, he is still a character I enjoy playing as.

Nominations:
x5 Lycanroc

 

[wildvine47]

Greninja

Chance: 96% - Greninja's prominence only increased after his Smash 4 reveal, and he even got a big relevance boost in Gen 7 with Ash Greninja making the jump to Sun and Moon. Unless for some reason TPC specifically don't want him, and I can't imagine why that'd be the case, he's staying.

Want: 100% - No cuts. Plus, he's got a very unique and fun moveset, and it'd be a shame if Decidueye showed up and he left. The type trio would be all out of wack again.

Predictions

Mewtwo: 89% - Mewtwo was THE most requested cut vet, and his model reveal was purposefully one of the hypest moments of Smash 4 speculation. He's never getting cut again in my mind.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Greninja

Chance - 100%

Unique, extremely popular, still relevant (with Ash-Greninja), he has it all. No reason to cut him.

Want - 100%

I'd rather not cut most veterans; Greninja isn't an exception.

Nominations:
Scorpion x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Greninja

Chance: 85%
Extremely popular, no real reason to cut him, but there's always a chance.

Want: 50%
I don't like playing as him, but I don't dislike playing against him, and I'm neutral about him as a Pokemon. Honestly I don't care either way.

Mewtwo prediction: 95%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Greninja

Chance: 100%

Want: 100%

He's not getting the axe, and like I said the game's likely to be a Splatoon 2 type sequel, so the cuts will likely be few.

Mewtwo Prediction: 94.74%

Lloyd Irving x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Chance- 95%
Greninja literally was crowned the most popular Pokemon in Japan in 2016. Now I'd find it rather weird for the King to be booted from the roster seeing as that was when Smash Switch was beginning to be made. I mean would they really remove the most popular Pokemon at the peak of his popularity? If his relevance to the series decreasing (just as any and all Pokemon) is the death sentence, than there are many characters in Smash that flat out don't belong (Jigglypuff, Ike, Ness, Falcon, Lucario, etc.) or have 0 hope of getting in. (King K. Rool, Isaac, etc.) So obviously it isn't the deciding factor and his popularity with a unique move set should help keep him in the ring.

Want - 100%
When I found out was cut in Smash 4, my desires to get the game shrank. With less interest in Smash and not that much tempting games coming out, I entirely skipped the Wii U generation of console. I ended up picking up a 3DS at some point with Pokemon Y, Sun, and Smash. I really don't care much for the frantic and action packed style of Smash on the 3DS, but I still play it some. Of everyone added to the roster, Greninja was the only newcomer that really clicked with me. I've had many accidental Side B deaths (sometimes trying to do the UP B and getting the Side B instead...), but I still enjoyed the character quite a bit. And not much of a shocker, I picked Froakie and ended up loving my little frog buddy in Pokemon Y. So I'll be pretty wrecked if my ninja frog gets cut and I don't even get to experience him on a larger screen.

Nominations 5x Pikmin Newcomer

I don’t think he’s gonna be cut, but he is the least popular out of all the Pokémon in Smash

Proof or base-less claim? When another poster conversed with me in regards to Pokemon popularity, all the data both me and them pulled up showed Greninja more in the middle ground alongside Jigglypuff. Meanwhile, Charizard and Lucario were at the bottom of the barrel by a large margin. Even so, I don't think we will every truly have the accurate data anyways. But I kind of doubt Greninja was the least popular since he had his "better nerf" meme and his rise as the King of Pokemon in 2016.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chance: 83%
Honestly good odds. However we've lost a Pokémon every Smash since Melee and Jigglypuff has nearly not made the game every single time so we know Pokémon are often considered expendable to a degree.

Pikachu is obviously always safe as the mascot and Charizard is the de facto most popular Pokémon ever so they're safe. Lucario appears to be one of the few Pokémon who have lasting popularity outside gen 1. Greninja meanwhile has won a single popularity poll which is pretty impressive but I'm not sure if that poll was done pre alola or not.

Overall I'd say he's the most likely of the Pokémon to be cut, but I'm leaning more towards no cuts.

Want: 45%
Again, just like with Lucas being a vet doesn't mean jack to me for my personal want. He's far higher as he's at least fun to play but I can think of dozens of other Pokémon I'd prefer including Squirtle returning either as himself or as Blastoise, whom is the overall third most popular Pokémon of all time if I recall right after Charizard and Mewtwo, Meowth who has remained relevant in the anime(and will continue to until the end of time), and a few other more obscure personal picks such as Alakazam, Machamp, Shiftry, Infernape, Haxorus, Feraligatr, Timburr, Chespin, Oshawott, Pancham/Pangoro and Scrafty.

Again, I didn't start with Froakie, so Greninja doesn't have a special place in my heart like it does for others but he's still a little fun to play with even if I only choose him when I'm down to the last ten characters in the roster.

Mewtwo prediction: 93%

Nominations: Fire Emblem Heroes summoner x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Proof or base-less claim? When another poster conversed with me in regards to Pokemon popularity, all the data both me and them pulled up showed Greninja more in the middle ground alongside Jigglypuff. Meanwhile, Charizard and Lucario were at the bottom of the barrel by a large margin. Even so, I don't think we will every truly have the accurate data anyways. But I kind of doubt Greninja was the least popular since he had his "better nerf" meme and his rise as the King of Pokemon in 2016.

Got no proof except for my own perception. I never see people talking about Greninja the way they talk about other Pokémon, and him not being in Pokken speaks volumes to how the devs perceive his popularity at least, but I could be mistaken. I find it very hard to believe that Charizard and Lucario would be unpopular though.

 

[Wyoming]

Chance - 75%
I think there is a chance he might be low priority and miss out, only to return as DLC as a late addition. Pokemon is a competitive series, and with newer additions as well as Mewtwo's return, this shinobi frog might find it harder to be in Smash.

He's kind of lost his peak fame, but still seems rather popular. That means little when we have precedence - Mewtwo not making the roster in Brawl despite being a very popular Pokemon. Lucario made it, yes - but I have a feeling his aura mechanic made him too valuable in Sakurai's eyes to be cut. Greninja doesn't really have anything that stands out compared to other Smash 4 newcomers.

However, this is merely a gut feeling hypothesis. I still expect him in. There's just that lingering possibility to me he might not initially make it.

Want - 60%
Honestly I never really cared for him, but he still has a place in the roster due to his prominence in X/Y.

Mewtwo: 79.5%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Greninja

Chance: 99.99%
I can't even imagine it nya. But the possibility of being cut does exist nya.

Want: 100%
Nyo cuts nya! I wanya see water ninja frogs nya!!

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Greninja
Chance: 85%
He is quite a popular character, and he's unique in Smash and fits nicely within the Pokemon roster, so there isn't really a reason to cut him especially if, as I believe, this game is built on top of the existing Smash 4 assets. The only reason he could not make it would be the Pokemon Company asking for him to be removed, or if Sakurai considers him lower priority than new Pokemon characters. Still, anything can happen.

Want: 50%
I like him but I'm not really invested in the Pokemon roster aside from Pikachu and Mewtwo returning. I do feel it's important to have representation from a variety of generations, so I slightly lean towards keeping him.

Mewtwo: 88.75%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Neku x2

 

[Wyoming]

NOMINATION UPDATE

Spoiler: Nominations update: post-Lucas, pre-Greninja

Black Shadow x247
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x240
Bomberman x237
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x235
Agumon x225
Lycanroc x216
Simon Belmont x207


Over 200:

Qbby x206
Urban Champion x200

199-150

Sans x198
Dark Samus x194
Funky Kong x191
Kamek x188
Spyro x185
Azura (Fire Emblem) x184
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x182
Travis Touchdown x174
Mipha x173
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x170
KOS-MOS x169
Masked Link x168
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x159
Sylux x150

149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Gengar x143
Lip (Panel de Pon) x136
Concept: Skyrim representation x135
Parabo & Satebo x134
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x130
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x128
Neku Sakuraba x126
Linkle x125
Cranky Kong x125
Mimikyu x125
Wonder Red x123
Ryu Hayabusa x115
Excitebiker x113
Thwomp x112
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Papyrus x103
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x100

99-75

Tetra x96
Katrielle Layton x92
Sakura Shinguji x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Slippy Toad x85
Tom Nook x85
2B (Nier: Automata) x84
Lloyd Irving x80
Fjorm x75
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x75

74-50

Sable Prince x74
Veronica x73
Klonoa x70
Django (Boktai) x70
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x70
Labo related character x68
Tingle x66
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x65
Steve x65
Barbara x63
Zeraora (Pokémon) x60
Lara Croft x57
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Starfy x51

49-30:

Ray (Custom Robo) x48
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x47
Balloon Fighter x47
Arcade Bunny x46
Gooey x42
Concept: Wars character x41
Returning game mode: Smash Run x40
Dragonite x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x35
Tails x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Primarina x30
Tora & Poppi x30
Snorlax x29
Toon Zelda x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Slime x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Stage: New Donk City x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25

24 and less:

Concept: Female Announcer x20
DeMille x17
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x15
Scorpion x15
Concept: Transformation characters x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Mach Rider x10
Leon S. Kennedy x10
Veteran: Corrin x10
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x8
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2

Changes:

Marth/Roy speaking English moves up to 2nd, overtaking Mike Jones.
Bomberman also overtakes Mike Jones for 3rd.
Lycanroc moves up to 6th
Simon Belmont moves up to 7th, taking out Qbby of the top 7. He also breaks 200 noms in the process.
Urban Champion breaks 200 noms
Sylux breaks 150 noms
Papyrus and FE Heroes Summoner break 100 noms
Tom Nook, Lloyd Irving, and Masked Dedede FS break 75 noms
Ayumi Tachibana breaks 25 noms
New additions: Kumatora (x5), and Masked Man (x3)

 

[Deleted member]

Greninja

Chance: 100%
Super promoted character throughout gen 6 and even up to gen 7. Major player in the anime. One of the most used Pokemon online since its introduction. Literally won an official Japanese popularity contest that was weighted against it. Seriously, everyone voted legendaries and mythicals to the top because the winner would get distributed. All of this adds up to the idea that Greninja is one of the Pokemon Company's most important properties. This discussion is honestly like the pre-Smash 4 days when people thought Lucario was on the chopping block.

Want: 100%
Favorite Smash character.

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

Mewtwo prediction: 84.2%

 

[Aetheri]

Greninja

Chance: 75%
Being a unique and popular pokemon doesn't necessarily mean they are locks for the next game as we saw with Mewtwo who was supposed to be in every smash game but only appeared in two, the second only as a DLC fighter...We don't really have any way to know how much Greninja will be prioritized in development...

That said he is still a veteran character and will more than likely make a return due to popularity and only really has circumstance working against him...IF he is lower priority...

Want: 100%
Was one of my mains early on, lately I play him sparingly but he's still a fun character to use and would prefer if he wasn't cut...

----

Mewtwo-74.03%
This could've been a double day with Greninja tbh...

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[FamicomDisk]

Greninja

Chance: 85%
I think he's got a good chance at returning if for no other reason than that he won first place in a Japanese popularity poll out of all 720 Pokémon available in Gen 6 (they didn't include #721, Volcanion, but he was the only one missing). This obviously means he's popular among fans. He's also arguably the Gen 6 mascot, similar to Lucario in Gen 4, and was an important Pokémon in the anime, as well as in the demo for Sun and Moon, which means he kept a little bit of that in Gen 7. With so much popularity, I don't think he's going anywhere! At the same time, his popularity does seem to fading a bit as we move further away from Gen 6, so it's possible - though unlikely - that he could be removed.

Want: 40%
Greninja's cool enough, and I think his ninja stuff is fun, but he's never been a favorite Pokémon of mine so I'd prefer to see other Pokémon besides him. Won't be upset if he's gone, and won't be upset if he's back!

------

Mewtwo chance prediction: 78.93%

Nomination:
DeMille x5

 

[andimidna]

Greninja:

Chance & want: 95%

Has no reason to be removed. Even if this wasn’t a port at any point in development, he’d be worth remaking from the ground up.

Mewtwo prediction: 85%

x3 Azura
x2 Sylux

 

[NintenRob]

Chance 97%
While I am a tiny bit concerned, we've lost a unique Pokemon the last two times, I think Pokemon is pretty safe this time. And he's really popular.

Want 1000%
One of my favourites, my second favourite Pokemon and my second most wanted last time round. Please don't let him go

Prediction 94%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[DaUsername]

Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

prediction: 75%
Noms: Transformation characters x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Greninja

Chance: 95%

Tiny bit of concern since the past games have lost unique Pokémon and there's a chance he'll be seen as the most expendable, but looking at everything I'm leaning towards thinking that the series will finale stay intact this time around. Plus, he's still a popular and notable 'mon and he has a completely unique moveset. There's not a really strong reason for the ninja frog to leave, honestly.

Want: 100%

Greninja is a good Pokémon.

Mewtwo prediction: 92.18%

Nominations: Bomberman x5