Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Arle

Chance: 5%

Popular in Japan, not so much everywhere else. I sooner see Dr Mario being reworked in a proper puzzle character and I see Sega pushing more for another Sonic rep than for this girl.

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Lucas: 86.72%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[smashkirby]

Arle Nadja

Chance - 5%

Want - 100%

Nominations - Lark (Pilotwings) x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Alre Nadja

Chance: Abstain (not a clue who she is.)

Want 5%: Doesn't seem like a great choice.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x

 

[RouffWestie]

Arle Nadja

My first experience with Puyo was playing Mean Bean Machine on Sonic Mega Collection back in 2004. Back then I remember playing this game a lot. I love puzzle games, so I decided to revisit it recently. That's when I realized that I don't like Puyo Puyo at all. Everything about it doesn't click with me, the gameplay loop isn't particularly satisfying, and I never feel the tension or excitement everybody else does. In regards to Arle herself, her design (at least her modern version) is flat, boring, and doesn't interest me. I don’t see this character adding anything potentially interesting for me.

Want: 0%

Moving on to her chances; if Sakurai intended to introduce a character with a puzzle-based moveset, Tetris would be the first franchise he considers. The merits of a Tetris rep eclipse Arle's; it's possibly the most recognizable puzzle game worldwide, it’s had a visible impact on the industry, and is more important to Nintendo's own history because of it's huge influence on the success of the Gameboy.

But Arle does have some level of recognizably, and I've learned that Puyo Puyo isn't as niche as I've previously thought. Puyo Puyo has had consistent releases on Nintendo systems from the SNES to the Switch, with several being released outside Japan, there's lots of merchandise based on the IP, it was recognized as on official eSport in Japan earlier this year, it gave birth to the competitive puzzle game sub-genre and is arguably the most popular of them in the US, and it's currently the second most profitable Sega franchise right underneath Sonic. Sega has enough faith in the future the series has in the West to finally localize Puyo Puyo Tetris – and it went on to sell nearly a million copies as of February this year. Add to that the fact that PPT was released as a launch title on Nintendo's newest and very successful console, and she's bound to be considered recognizable enough to the current audience. Puyo Puyo is guaranteed to get a Mii Costume at least.

For a hypothetical character with a puzzle-based moveset, I see Sakurai looking to either Puyo Puyo or Tetris. I want to say both have about a half chance individually, but I'm going to give a little more faith to Puyo Puyo. Arle is an existing character that I can see being easily translated into Smash, while Tetris is an abstract concept that I struggle to see them being able to translate into Smash without failing to stay faithful to Tetris itself.

Chance: 60%

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x3
Kamek x2

 

[Luminario]

Arle

Chance: 35%
Obviously popular in Japan, and her series has quite a backlog of games. Her obscurity in the West lowers her chances dramatically though.

Want:75%
I love her design and she seems like a magical character I'd definitely play. If we're going on Puzzle reps here though I want Lip first.

Nominate Mipha x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 8%
A megastar in Japan it seems and a virtual nobody in the west.

When it comes to Sega stars Arle missed the boat in All Stars Racing and Tennis and is less famous here than a whole heap of others;
Alex Kidd was the Sega mascot prior to Sonic,
Super Monkey Ball on the Gamecube made AiAi a familiar character to Nintendo fans,
NiGHTS is referenced everywhere in Sonic and had a Wii release, it didn't do too well but Sega seem to push it as their next big franchise after Sonic for some reason,
Beat, Amigo and Ulala had cult games and repeated appearences in the Sega All Stars games
Akira and Jacky even got Mii fighter outfits in Sm4sh.

Aside from the above SEGA characters, Tails, Knuckles and Eggman are far bigger names worldwide than everyone there combined.

Unlike the situation with Capcom where Ryu and Megaman are stars as big and bright as each other, Arle has many people questioning who here today. Say what you will about Bayonetta, at least everyone had heard of her...

Want: 45%
I'm a big fan of Sega in general but there's a cavalcade of Sega characters I'd prefer including the three aforementioned Sonic cast members, Alex Kidd, Vyse from Skies of Arcadia, Amigo(mostly for his music if I'm honest) and Billy Hatcher.

: 78%
Powerglove advert: 3%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Arle

Chance 5%
Want 0%

Another Sega character would be too much Sega bias and I’d sooner expect Tails, who’s been asked for since Melee, anyways. So unless Sonic or Bayonetta gets cut I’m going to say Arle seems a bit unrealistic to me.

x3 Tom Nook
x1 Barbara
x1 Arcade Bunny

Predict: 77%

 

[Michelaar]

Chance and Want: 0%

I have no idea who this is and I don't care enough to find out.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Arle Nadja:
Chance: 10%
Characters have been shot down for not appearing in the West before. It's not a criteria, but it's a dent for Arle's chances.

Want: 0%
#LipforSmash

Balloon Fighter x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 1%
She's an uniconic 3rd party. The only reason why she gets a 1% is because there's almost always a chance.

Want: 0%

This is a "Literally Who?" for me. I only know she's from Puyo Puyo or something.

Susie x5

 

[FlareHabanero]

Arle

Chances: 50%

I'm being generous here with an even split, because with third parties it's ultimately a mutual decision between two (possibly more) parties. Like for example if Sakurai wants it but Mizuki Hosoyamada doesn't want it or vise versa, then it can't happen. There's no exception.

But I will point out the fallacy that Arle Nadja and by extension Carbuncle are unknown characters. The Puyo Puyo series is an enduring and influential franchise where all sorts companies were trying to copy it's success, like Capcom, Konami, Hudson Soft, SEGA, and yes even Nintendo. It's actually comparable to other big name franchises like Street Fighter that pushed the genre forward, specifically in this case Puyo Puyo is why so many puzzle games seemingly focus on competitive play and character casting. Before Puyo Puyo came into the picture, everything was basically like SEGA's 1988 iteration of Tetris, basic games where the goal is to simply get a high score.

Another thing to note is that SEGA is very open to the idea of referencing Puyo Puyo in recent games. This includes the many collaborations with their mobile games, both within Puyo Puyo!! Quest and other mobile games, and other SEGA games like Yakuza 6 and Hatsune Miku Project Diva. Unlike years ago where they were unusually restricting on it. In fact the timing of this and the likely time the roster was being compiled was in the middle of the franchise's anniversary, and naturally this was when SEGA was pushing the series more than usual. So automatically dismissing the character is not a smart idea.

Want: 100%

In case you haven't noticed, I really want this character, easily one of my top 5.

 

[Cosmic77]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 3%
This girl has virtually NO support outside of Japan. If Sakurai was concerned about adding Takamaru, an actual Nintendo character, due to the West not recognizing him, then why in Arceus's name would he think adding Arle Nadja is a good idea!?

Want: 0%
Puyo Puyo? Pu-NO pu-NO!

Lucas prediction: 66.6%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[skylanders fan]

arle

chance 5%
want 5%
lucus 85%
nominate bomberman x5

 

[Xhampi]

Arle Nadja
Chance : 10%
Her obscurity in the west and being from a 3rd party with so many potential choices hurt her chances.

Want : 70%
One of the two 3rd party character I would like to have in this game. Speaking of which...

Nomination : Saber (Fate series) X5

 

[nirvanafan]

Arle Nadja

Chance : 25%
She could be a nice puzzle game rep but her obscurity especially when compared to other 3rd parties really hurts her chances.

Want : 75%
I enjoy Puyo Puyo and like the idea I mentioned in chances of her being the puzzle game rep.

Nomination : Linkle X5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 5%
Obscure in the west and has heavy competition in third party spots with characters like Rayman and Banjo who are big icons. But perhaps she will be an AT or something.

Want: 0%
Didn't play any of her games, so I don't have a personal connection.

Lucas: 82.56%

x5 to Simon Belmont

 

[Esquelen]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 5%
Character little known and is from another company.

Want: 1%
I like his game, but I'm not interested.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Arle Nadja chances: 14%
Her series seems to be big in Japan, but less so in western countries. Without the country barrier I feel like her credentials could give her a higher chance.

Arle Nadja want: 0%
I have no connection, she doesn't inspire me much and I'm not really appealed to the idea.

Lucas prediction: 72.51%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Returning game mode: Smash Run x2

 

[NIckynickreviews]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 15%
Popular in Japan, and the main character of the second largest puzzle series after Tetris, but obscurity in the west, competition from other third party characters and Sonic characters hold her back.

Want: 60%
Having a puzzle rep would be cool, and I like Puyo Puyo more than Panel de Pon, so I'd rather have Arle over Lip.

Nominations:
2B x4
Simon Belmont x1

 

[RandomAce]

Arle Nadja:

Chance: 10%
Although she is super popular in Japan, she has no appeal in the west. Not only that but I doubt that Sakurai would choose Arle as a third Sega character compared to many others that are more well know and have more well recieved characters. (Source Gaming really confused me by giving her a 70%.)

Want: Abstain
I really have no comment on this character.

Nominations:
x5 Lycanroc

 

[Arcanir]

Arle Nadja

Chance and Want: Double Abstain

I don't have enough familiarity with the character to give a fair score.

Nomination: Lycanroc x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Hey all just as a sidenote the week of E3 we shall not be doing a normal schedule. As such instead of a planned 7 the week before we shall have a planned 9. Here is the E3 Schedule

6/10 Favorite Days of RTC so far
6/11 Nintendo E3 Predictions
6/12 Reactions and Cool Down Day
6/13 Satisfaction ratings of Inklings and any other Newcomers/Cut Veterans they show off
6/14 Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Characters We Have Rated (No confirmed Characters or deconfirmed characters)
6/15 Top Two Most Overrated and Underrated
6/16 Overrated and Underrated Day 2

Note that Nominations will not be put on hold aside from on the Reactions and cool down day.

6/17 onwards we shall have a normal nominations schedule back up.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Arie

Chances and want: not giving out a score this time

I don't know anything about her so I can't really give her a percent or a comment. All I'm going to say is if she gets into Smash, she may have a better shot at AT before being playable


Nominations:

Gengar
Zeraora
Zangoose x3

I'm waiting to see how many WTF reactions we are going to have for E-3 with Smash lmao

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Hey all just as a sidenote the week of E3 we shall not be doing a normal schedule. As such instead of a planned 7 the week before we shall have a planned 9. Here is the E3 Schedule

6/10 Favorite Days of RTC so far
6/11 Nintendo E3 Predictions
6/12 Reactions and Cool Down Day
6/13 Satisfaction ratings of Inklings and any other Newcomers/Cut Veterans they show off
6/14 Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Characters We Have Rated (No confirmed Characters or deconfirmed characters)
6/15 Top Two Most Overrated and Underrated
6/16 Overrated and Underrated Day 2

Note that Nominations will not be put on hold aside from on the Reactions and cool down day.

6/17 onwards we shall have a normal nominations schedule back up.

I like the idea, but you're going to need to elaborate a bit on those ''Overrated/Underrrated'' days.

Why are there three days deticated to that topic? And why is the last day called ''Day 2'' instead of 3?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I like the idea, but you're going to need to elaborate a bit on those ''Overrated/Underrrated'' days.

Why are there three days deticated to that topic? And why is the last day called ''Day 2'' instead of 3?

Basically people will vote on what characters they found we overrated the most and which characters we underrated the most. Then the top two will get their day, then the next two pairs get their day.

 

[Deleted member]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 5%

Want: abstain


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Lucas prediction: 84.67%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Also just gonna give a heads up for Spyro's day when it happens plz help me nom him to the top guyz I am going to break a norm I have set and post my thoughts at the beginning of the day, Why? Well lets just say I have a lot to say.

Also wow I did not expect a Lip Arle rivalry today.

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Arle Nadja

Abstain from both

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Deleted member]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 3%
I literally have never heard of her until today, and it seems the same holds true for a lot of other people in this thread. No idea why a 3rd party character with barely any western recognition would get into the game, but who knows? If we do get another SEGA character I'm like 90% sure it'll be a Sonic character anyway.

Want: 0%
Who is this.

Lucas prediction: 78.61%

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

 

[Troykv]

Hey all just as a sidenote the week of E3 we shall not be doing a normal schedule. As such instead of a planned 7 the week before we shall have a planned 9. Here is the E3 Schedule

6/10 Favorite Days of RTC so far
6/11 Nintendo E3 Predictions
6/12 Reactions and Cool Down Day
6/13 Satisfaction ratings of Inklings and any other Newcomers/Cut Veterans they show off
6/14 Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Characters We Have Rated (No confirmed Characters or deconfirmed characters)
6/15 Top Two Most Overrated and Underrated
6/16 Overrated and Underrated Day 2

Note that Nominations will not be put on hold aside from on the Reactions and cool down day.

6/17 onwards we shall have a normal nominations schedule back up.

I think it would sounds a bit more clear if you said.

6/14 Election of the Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Character We Have Rated
6/15 Re-Rate Top Two Most Overrated and Underrated Characters (Over/Under-rated Day 1)
6/16 Re-Rate Runner Up Most Overrated and Underrated Character (Over/Under-rated Day 2)

 

[jamesster445]

Arle

Chance- 50%
Want- 50%

Apparently very popular in Japan. But I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Cycrum]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 3%
She is basically a nobody outside of Japan, and most third-party characters in Smash are extremely iconic and influential to gaming as a whole for one reason or another.

Want: Abstain
Who?

Predictions:
Lucas: 78.66%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Arle Nadja

Chance - 30% - I think she has a decent shot. Sega has recently been making a push for Puyo Puyo here in the states, and it's hard to deny the impact that he had in Japan. Let me put it this way: when a game is officially an e-sport (I think it was actually an esport before the term was invented), that game has big impact. Sadly, I don't think she's quite there yet to be a super-serious contender.

Want - 80% - I enjoyed Puyo Puyo Tetris, and I like her. Why not?


Predictions

Lucas - 87.35% - Should do well...

Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[smileMasky]

Arle

Chance 10%
I know of the puyo puyo series because of that mashup with Tetris on the switch. Though that may or may not be enough for her to become playable. I do how ever see her at least getting referenced.

Want 7%
I know there is a challenge with making an original moveset for characters who don't really have any initial moveset to begin with. That did not stop captain Falcon. That said I could see it got the magical girl route and do that for her move set. I kind of want to see that, though only a little bit

Nomination Django x5

 

[NintenRob]

Arle Nadja
Chance 1%
Not impossible, but definitely not iconic enough
Want 0%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction

Lucas: 75%
The other one : 0%

 

[PsySmasher]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 35%
+ Puyo Puyo is one of Sega’s largest franchises (in units sold, only second to Sonic I believe). It even beats out Shin Megami Tensei, which is quite a feat in itself.
+ She is EXTREMELY popular in Japan (to the point where, according to Source Gaming’s data, she was more requested than both Cloud AND Bayonetta).
+Sega is the ONLY company to have representation in multiple iterations of Smash; also one of two companies that have multiple reps in a single game.
+Puyo Puyo was ported to the Nintendo Switch during the beginning of its run (April 2017 if I recall).
+Puyo Puyo is now officially an e-Sport (that’s a pretty significant impact).

That being said:
-She’s a 3rd Party rep. If Sakurai wanted to put in another Nintendo character similar to her, Lip is a better option.
-She also faces some competition from Professor Layton, another 3rd Party puzzle rep who is much more popular worldwide.
-She relatively obscure in the West
-She’s has competition from her own series in the form of Amilite
-We’re more likely to get a 2nd Sonic rep

Want: 85%
I wouldn’t have typed all that stuff if I didn’t want her in.

Predictions
Lucas: 82.31%

Nominations
KOS-MOS x 5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 2% - Everything has been said already.
Want: 0% - No connection to her.

Prediction: Lucas
Chance: 59.17%
Want: 82.15%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Fenriraga]

FIREBALL FIREBALL FIREBALL FIREBALL FIREBALL FIREBALL FIREBALL

Chance: 10%
I guess I'd consider a more likely candidate of the non-Sonic Sega reps, but... That's about the best chance I can give her. Regardless of her Japanese popularity, I don't see her happening.

Want: 75%
Yeah sure, she'd be cool. It'd be a neat way to represent puzzle games, as well as give Sonic and Kirby something to have in common. Plus, Puyo Puyo is super fun, and the writing for Puyo Puyo Tetris was god-tier.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Arle Nadja Chance: 5%

Want: 1%

There's nothing I can really add here to her chances. Only reason the want isn't 0% is again because of the small possibility that something neat could be done with the character, and as I don't really know anything about her other than what game she comes from.......I won't say I'd rather not have her in the game, but don't necessarily want her in, either. I won't give her anything higher than 1% for want.

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Arle Nadja Chance:
15%
Very popular in Japan, but not very known in America. Her inclusion could make her have more of a presence over here. I would say she would be one of the most likely Sega characters that could get added, but there are always others.

Arle Nadja Want:
90%
I would really like a true puzzle fighter in the game. Puyo was fun and I like her design.

Lucas Prediction:
84.18%

Nominations:
Sylux x5