Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Troykv]

Tethu

So... What I say about Henry some days ago...

Henry Fleming:

Chance: 10%

I would usually give someone like him a bigger chance rate for being the main character or a relatively relevant hype for the Smash Period... but it has a big problem in the form of perception... This game was doomed since the beginning of his existence, and I'm unsure why... But in general, this game looks like something that Nintendo would like to forget ever existed... unless Sakurai had Sight beyond Sight.

Want: 50%

A pretty standart score... He would be interesting.

Oh yeah, it pretty much applies the same stuff with Tethu

Chance: 10%

Want: 50%

_______________________________

Prediction:

Arle: 13.5%

Nomination:

KOS-MOS x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Tethu

Chance - 1%

New 2nd party IP that flopped big time in Japan, and seemingly didn't do very well in the west either, considering there's never been anything said about it. He's pretty much in the exact same case Henry Fleming from Code Name S.T.E.A.M. was in.

Want - 10%

I never picked up Ever Oasis, just like how I never picked up Code Name S.T.E.A.M., but from what I've seen of the game, it doesn't look anywhere as bad as Code Name S.T.E.A.M. seemed to be. Plus, the little guy is pretty cute, and I've always had a knack for plant-based characters.

Definitely not a character I'm gunning for, but if I had to choose between the two "failed 3DS franchises," I'd take Tethu over Henry Fleming any day. Although, if we're talking new 3DS IPs period, I'd much rather have someone like Dillon or Mallo.

Nominations:
KOS-MOS x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Tethu

Chance 8%
Want 60%

Ever Oasis is a fun game and even though he’d be fun I think he’ll most likely end up as an AT. I say this mainly because they leave some of the less successful games/series for ATs, although some do get in so there’s still a small chance. Out of the pool of little guys he’s one of the cooler ones to me.

x4 Arcade Bunny
x1 Starfy

Predict 9%

 

[MasterWarlord]

Chance 3%: It's a main character of a recent release and the game did okay at the very best. It may be too recent of a release for the design document.

Want 0%: I hate the chibi art style. I'm not the first who's shown their distaste for a character entirely because of their art style.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Arcanir]

Tethu
Chance: 5%
Everything said about Henry applies here. His game seems to be a flop, it was arguably even less pushed then Codename STEAM since the only time it was really brought up was in one direct and the Treehouse segments (one of which was a week ahead of its release), and there's not that much of a push to keep it afloat. He does have good moveset potential, but the lack of presence his game has really hurts him.

Want: 75%
Also like Codename Steam, I feel Ever Oasis is a very underrated title that was heavily overlooked and Tetsu would be a lot of fun to play as.

Nomination: Lycanroc x5

 

[Koopaul]

Tethu
Chance: 3%
Everyone mentions how it was a flop but the biggest thing going against it is the timing. I doubt it was known by Sakurai when he made his project plan.
Want: 10%
I feel so sorry for the series. This was Grezzo's first big game and Nintendo barely promoted it. What's wrong with Nintendo? They promote the hell out of games that are absolutely sure to sell, like Mario Odyssey or BotW. But new IPs that really need the promotion? Almost never.

Nominations
Barbara ×3
Slime ×2

 

[Wyoming]

Tethu

Chance: 5%
Like Henry Fleming, the good thing for this character's chances is the fact that it released during the right era. However, much like his American soldier counterpart, sales were pretty poor and series is going to be forgotten about by Nintendo. An assist trophy seems likely, however.

Want: Abstain
I cannot properly judge this character.

Arle Nadja prediction: 7.6%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Deleted member]

Tethu

Chance: 0.3%
New series that flopped and only released in June 2017. Sakurai likes to take a wait and see approach with new IPs, so there's almost no chance he pulls a Greninja here.

Want: Abstain

Arle Nadja Prediction: 5.32%

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Tethu
Chance - 5%
Seems his game fell short and will be moved past.
Want - 25%
He's kind of cute. Meh.

Nominations - x5 Concept - Pikmin Newcomer

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 1%
It will take a miracle for the guy to ever be in Smash. It was announced back in 2016 so maybe he'll get a trophy. Hopefully...

Want:100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000%
I literally want him in Smash more than is humanly feasible. And honestly, it's less that I want to play as him, though I do, I just want this to become a series or at least have this game get more love than it got. Nintendo barely advertised this game and I don't blame them his game was coming out at the same time as Nintendo was doing everything in their power to make sure the Switch sold well. I'm happy the Switch benefited from that media blitz but I'm sad it came at the expense of this game. I really did love it and want to see more from Ever Oasis but at 0.22m sales, a sequel is.... farfetched. Still, my love for this game will not be stopped, I voted to rate this game every single day since I started playing till he finally was locked in, because I wanted a day where people would at least be exposed to him and so anybody who didn't know he was a Nintendo character would learn he is.

If you haven't played the game I would 100% recommend picking it up. Some guy on here said he played it and was disappointed by it and that makes me happy because at least he gave the game a shot, which really is all I want. I don't need others to love the game like I do, I just want people to play it and form their own opinion about it because this game certainly deserved better than being instantly forgotten.

Hopefully one day these characters will get more recognition until then a man can dream.

noms: Qbby X5

 

[Pennate]

Tethu:

Chance: Abstain

Want: Abstain

I don't know enough about this character to make a fair judgment.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well ****, I guess I’m on some kind of roll. At least Blue Bowser was good for something.

Anyway, Tethu

Chance: 9%
Didn’t really sell but at least reviews were kind, unlike Codename STEAM. He also came out during the right-ish period of time to be considered.

Want: 60%
Has a cute design and from what I gather, he’d bring something new to the table moveset-wise. Didn’t play his game, though, so I can’t get too excited.

Arle Nadja prediction: 20%
She seems to have a huge support base, and while this is a prediction for chance, a character’s fanbase tends to give high chance scores (the old “people really underestimate his/her chances” chestnut).

Nominations (still can’t believe that out of all the variations of 0% people predicted it was mine that was closest)
Ayumi Tachibana x10

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Chance 5%
Want 25%
I think if Ever Oasis gets a switch port bump this up to a 25% chance, but as of now Ever Oasis seems like a one and done game.

As for want... eh nothing against them, I just doubt i'll ever play EO.

Nomination X5 Funky Kong

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Tethu

Chance: 10% 2%

Only because the timing might've been right. Nvm, just realised Ever Oasis released in 2017 and not 2016 like I thought.
Assist Trophy at best it is then.

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Arle: 12.89%

Nominations: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x3 Leon Kennedy x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

One side note, expect the updates next week to be a bit slower than usual i will be having finals ad packing to go back home.


Carry on. 「 Hinata 」 did a damn good job on the art btw props.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Concept: Veteran Art Reused from Smash 4 (StarTropics) 5/9

I thing there's an error here due to confusion over Mike Jones' disappearance from the top 7 of the nomination list. The "(StarTropics)" part should be removed.

Tethu chances: 0.5%
I've not heard a lot about his game, I feel like it has received little promotion and faded into obscurity as soon as it came. Definitely not in a better position than Codename S.T.E.A.M.

Tethu want: 0%
I feel like his game is even more obscure than S.T.E.A.M. and I have no connection nor interest in him.

Arle Nadja prediction: 15.48%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Returning game mode: Smash Run x2

I'm happy that the artwork concept got in the schedule before we got more Smash Switch news (asides from the extent to which it is going to be present at E3). Hopefully we don't get more news immediately after the Golden Week ends before the scheduled artwork concept rating day.

 

[NintenRob]

Tethu
Chance 6%
A game that was barely promoted and released after the likely after characters were selected
Want abstain
I have really no connection to this

Arle: I'll go 10

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[MrRoidley]

Tethu

Chance - 5%
An IP that flopped, highly unlikely. I strongly believe he'll appear as an AT though

Want - 5%
Never got into Ever Oasis, gameplay never seemed fun and the demo was boring to me

 

[YoshiandToad]

Tethu

Chance: 7%
Nintendo spent their budget for advertising it seems on making sure the Switch sold. Honestly it was a good idea, but it meant word of Ever Oasis never got around to the general gaming public. I remember seeing this in a Direct ages ago and then simply forgot it existed until the time I was researching Henry Fleming for his day.

The game understandably ended up being a bit of a flop from lack of promotion but reviews appear mostly favourable. Tethu's game didn't set the world ablaze, but it was considered good enough to get 79% overall it seems.

Want: 40%
It's always difficult to appeal to someone as an obscure character. Tethu, judging by gameplay could add something new possibly(the partner switching to solve puzzles seems neat and Diddy almost had this gamestyle in Brawl with Dixie) but without a strong connection to the character I'm going to have to rank lower than 50% which is my standard indifference number.

Gets a female alt though. That's neat.

Arle prediction: 12.3%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[wildvine47]

Tethu

Chance: 1% - As others have said, in a very similar situation to other no-hoper Henry Fleming. Arguably this guy's even worse off as his game was even less notable than STEAM was. Hell, I didn't even know it was a first party Nintendo title until literally reading some of today's posts about him. There's no oasis to be found in Smash for this wanderer.

Want: 6% - Tethu gets one point up on want from Henry Fleming due to Ever Oasis having a much less ugly-looking artstyle than STEAM, though it does cross into generic chibi anime a bit. Still, there's far better choices, and I'd much rather they look to bigger characters than deal with small fries like this guy.

Predictions

Arle Nadja: 8.56% Who the hell is this? A cursory google looks like some generic anime girl. I have never heard of this character before today, so that's probs not good for her chances, but it looks like she's being predicted at around the 5% to 20% range, so what the hell.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[Michelaar]

Tethu

Chance: 5% - Yeah, I don't think they have much of a chance of getting into the game at all. Maybe if Sakurai likes to be unpredictable, but even then..

Want - 0% - I have zero connection with this character.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain x2

Susie x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Tethu

Chance: 5%
Game didn't do too well.

Want: 20%
Don't care but I got nothing against them.

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x3

 

[Esquelen]

Tethu

Chance: 5%
It is an unknown game and there are not many reasons to add him as a fighter.

Want: 1%
He is cute, just that.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Tethu chance: 8% - Even though the sales of the game wouldn't have been a factor back in 2016, the fact it was never treated as a high-profile game means it's unlikely to get the Greninja treatment.

Tethu want: 50% - An Egyptian fantasy chibi warrior with wind abilities would stand out and be pretty interesting, both visually and thematically. I wouldn't be mad if he was playable.

Nominating Rex/Pyra rerate: x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Tethu

Chance: 1%
The game is so incredibly niche. I just can't see it happening.

Want: Abstain
The game looked okay, but I don't feel like I know enough about the character for me to properly rate him.

Arle Nadja prediction: 9.2%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Deleted member]

Tethu/ Tethi
Chance:25%
Want-90%
Ok so i am confident that this game will get some representation in smash bros(be it trophy, assist trophy, or stage), but im not sure on a playable character. His game was revealed during e3 2016 as an english demo(as shown along side pokemon and botw), so its likely grezzo showed it off to sakurai during that time, as per nintendo saying.
That said hes in the same situation as henry fleming and almost bowser jr. Henry being obscure and unpopular( mostly due to sale.... Thanks nintendo for your terrible advertisment of this game).Bowser jr. being a last thought newcomer(but missing it, because he may be an after thought).
I, personally, would LOVE to see tethu/tethi. Tornado based attack, unique sword combos, and take some leaf and weapons from his allies from his game.

Prediction:
Arel-30%

Noms-
Tora and poppi x 5

 

[Folezicle]

New to this

Tethu:

Chance 10%

Ever Oasis didn't sell well. I partly think it was due to marketing and other games being released at the same time. Most independent reporters never had a chance to play the game as they were over at Gamescom (I think, might of been a PAX). I know GameXplain didn't finish the game as they didn't have time.

Want 100%

Great game, I hope it becomes the Beyond Good and Evil of Nintendo. A recognised forgotten gem. Well we can scrap the idea of the sequel being in development hell.

Edit: x5 Octolings

 

[skylanders fan]

Tethu
chance 10%
didn't sell well and to its niche

want 5%
not interested in him tbh

nominate shadow x5

predict arel 7%

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Tethu

Chance- 15%
This game had the same fate as Codename Steam. Thats not a good thing.

Want- 0%
Not interested, but nothing against it.

Arle- 20.44%

Funky Kong X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This is another example of "Nintendo All-Stars should by definition be recognizable to a majority of gamers"

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Prediction for another character I've never heard of: 1.4%
Nom: Something from Skyrim x5

 

[Kotor]

Tethu

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

What went wrong with Ever Oasis? A lot of people are bringing up Codename STEAM as a similar situation due to nonexistent advertising, and its sales bombing. Well, I'm going to add to it by mentioning the year and console poor Ever Oasis released: 2017 for the Nintendo 3DS. The same year where earlier saw the release of the Nintendo Switch. We're at a point where people are getting annoyed at Nintendo still supporting the 3DS. Everyone has moved on the Switch, and want to see games released there, not the 3DS. Yet, Nintendo intends to release 3DS games in 2019. The game was sent to die. I say it performed worse than Codename STEAM. Maybe if Ever Oasis gets a port on the Switch, maybe people would actually pay attention to it.

Nominations
Marth and Roy get their English VAs x5

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) 5/4
Veteran: Lucas 5/5
Veteran: Greninja 5/6
Veteran: Mewtwo 5/7
Impa 5/8
Concept: Veteran Art Reused from Smash 4 (StarTropics) 5/9
Ganon 5/10

Look, I know you got finals next week, but can't someone else do the calculations? Do we really need three days to rate veterans?

 

[BluePikmin11]

From what I have heard, Ever Oasis did not do too well in terms of financial success. If Sakurai were to consider characters from 2017 releases, Ever Oasis would be far from being considered. An ARMS character like Spring Man has a better chance based on how much promotion Nintendo has been giving that IP. With Ever Oasis, it is to a FAR lesser degree and I cannot imagine Nintendo really pushing Sakurai to add Tethu in Smash. At best, we could just see a trophy, but nothing more.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[Quetzal77]

Tethlu
Chance: 1%
He seems more "obscure trophy" material.

Want: 0%
No connection at all and there are much better choices.

Arle Nadja: 10.55%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Tethu

Chance - 2.5% - More or less another Henry Fleming again. He was a somewhat decadently reviewed video game that was sadly left to the wayside. Until he gets something new, I can't see it happening.

Want - 60% - I wanted to try his game, but I never got it... still, I think it's at least a somewhat good idea that I would like to see in the future.


Prediction

Arle Nadja - 8.75% - I dunno.


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Deleted member]

Tethu

Chance: 1%

Even if Ever Oasis were a success, it probably would've been too late for Tethu to have been considered.

Want: 50%

No strong feelings either way.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[slambros]

Tethu

Chance: 10%
If they decided the roster early, they couldn't have predicted bad sales.

Want: 100%
He'd be diverse and unique.

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x2
Bombermam x3

 

[Wyoming]

We are rating Arle tomorrow slambros

As for three veterans in a row, I do not think it is that much of a big deal. All three have potential discussion merits. It is not anorher Shulk day by any means. They are also the only veterans for quite some time as only Roy, Dr. Mario, and Bayonetta have nominations and they are nowhere near the top.

 

[_Sheik]

Tethu

Chance: 4%.
Want: 25%.

I had very high hopes for his game when I first saw it at E3 2016 but the demo was underwhelming and the sales didn't do much to help his case. Also, as far as "magic swordsmen that can manipulate nature" go, there's no way I want to see him more than Isaac.

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Tethu

Chance: 4%

Want: 0%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5