Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[KingofPhantoms]

Marx Chance: 10%

While he has made some recurring appearances, they've mostly been cameos, up until Star Allies, which is a very, very new game, to the point where I really don't think it would affect the latest Smash game's roster at this point, unless we take DLC into account, but even then I still don't see him as being a strong contender. I actually think that, in a way, he's in a similar situation to the one that Pauline is in, but slightly better off. He was a largely one-off character that has been irrelevant in the Kirby franchise until an extremely new game. Perhaps it's reignited his popularity, but that's all I can really say is in his favor for now. Time will tell if anything manages to come out of it. I actually hope it does, not even something necessarily related to Smash. You'll see why in the next part of my post.

Want: 65%

Even though he's not my preferred Kirby newcomer, I must say that I do actually have a personal connection to the character. He was pretty much the main villain of the first Kirby game I ever played (namely, Kirby Super Star Ultra, a game I still l love to this day) and I always thought he was a cool, crazy and powerful villain. And with all the powers he's got available, surely he's nowhere near lacking in moveset potential. As much as I want Bandana Dee, Marx does mean something to me, so put that together with some really unique and crazy powers in a moveset, and I simply couldn't say no to him.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Marx

Chance: 5%

If Marx's comeback happened a year or so earlier, I would have given him a much higher score than this. Super Star has gotten quite a bit of content in Smash so I could genuinely see Sakurai include Marx based on that. But while I've questioned timing in the past, his inclusion in Star Allies probably did come too late to affect the roster, and besides it was an update and not in the base game, he shared the update with others, and he wasn't at all a common request until his appearance. Beyond that Marx doesn't have too much going for him honestly. His main appearance was a long time ago, and even with potential Sakurai bias there's a very clear Kirby frontrunner in Bandana Dee. Besides that I'm skeptical of Kirby getting a new character at all. A small score just in case Star Allies does somehow mean something, but I don't see it happening.

Want: 75%

I'm actually not desperate for a new Kirby character; I've beaten every main game and it's possibly my favorite Nintendo series, but I think the three in Smash represent it well. I wouldn't be against a new one of course, and Marx definitely interests me the most. I know Bandana Dee is probably the most deserving, and he'd be a decent addition, but I don't want him quite as much as others do, and I've always liked Marx. He's easily my current favorite character in Star Allies too, and he would translate really well to Smash.

Lucina prediction: 62.62%

Nominations: Banjo & Kazooie x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Marx
Chance: 15% - If we're getting anyone from Kirby, I think it'll be Bandana Dee, but Sakurai might put in Marx as he is quite popular and is one of Sakurai's own creations. That said, I don't think we're getting five Kirby characters yet.
Want: 5% - I have no attachment to Marx...

Prediction: Lucina
Chance: 68.92%
Want: 89.21%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Pennate]

Marx:

Chance: 20%

Want: 75%

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[Roberk]

Kirby Star Allies and Smash have nearly identical controls, what on earth are you talking about?

Probably physics and animations, backdoor stuff. Non-humanoid characters like quadrupeds or Marx are unique/rare when it comes to their animations and are more straining on the developers.

 

[TumblrFamous]

(First of all, the fact that JIBANYAN of all things was voted to have a better chance than Midna or Skull Kid is ridiculous imo)

Marx

Prediction: 1%
If we're getting a Kirby rep, it'll be Bandana Dee.

Want: 10%
Sounds cool, but I'd rather Bandana.

Lucina Prediction: 72.9%

Nominations: Sora x5

 

[andimidna]

^ I have to agree that surprised me

Marx:
Chance: 7%
He’s on the radar. I don’t see him over Bandana Dee. I definitely don’t see 2 Kirby newcomers when the series hasn’t been getting new attention on the levels of Mario and Zelda to my knowledge. I mean, BotW and Oddessey were their big new projects, but people seem to consider a Kirby character more on-the-table than a Zelda character? I gotta doubt that one
I don’t think either Dee or Marx are close to 50% likelihood individually honestly, but the sum of the options is pretty close to 50%. These 2 being the major contenders, ofc.
I’m not seeing much support for this other than on this bubble on Smashboards, but it has become more common for sure. It’s possible
I doubt the bias.exe will come into play at all, but I considered it to a small extent
Want: 55%
A friend wants him, sure w/e
This isn’t my series idk

Lucina prediction: 77.5%

x5 Azura

 

[Troykv]

With tomorrow's day being Lucina's day and No Cuts Prediction I think the nominations should be update.

 

[ZealousGamer]

I missed Jibanyan because I was moving. Even if it won't count I'd like to give him my ratings.

Jibanyan

Chances 35%: He has a new coming out and he was a pretty big hit for awhile. He has a lot of potential and he fit Smash Bros better than most other 3rd party characters.

Want 100%: He is my most wanted non Legend of Zelda character. He could be a lot of fun and I'd love to see Pikachu vs Jibanyan.

Marx

Chance 5%: Bandanna Dee most likely would get chosen over Marx.

Want 5%: I don't see the appeal.

Nomination:
Pokemon Trainer (Second Generation) 5x

 

[Deleted member]

Marx

Chance: 5%
Star Allies is too late to matter outside of DLC, and if we're getting a Kirby newcomer it's going to be Bandana Dee anyway.

Want: 10%
I'm not much of a fan.

Lucina Prediction: 67.81%

Nominating Isabelle x5

 

[wildvine47]

With tomorrow's day being Lucina's day and No Cuts Prediction I think the nominations should be update.

Yeah, that's a good point. @PK_Wonder what are the rankings looking like now?

 

[Dig Dug]

Marx:

Chance: 5%

That's including chances for DLC. He became relevant again at a pretty bad time and even then his inclusion felt like more of an afterthought than anything. Also Bandana Dee blah blah blah not trying to hate on spear boy though, he's my second most wanted.

Want: 100%

Super Star was my first game ever. I love this dirty backstabber and I was beyond happy to see him come back. And he's got so much moveset potential that I'm sure he'd be real fun to play.

Nominating Lycanroc x5

 

[Zeox]

’m no Kirby expert but the series does seem to the follow the Zelda habit of introducing a major villain in each installment and then never give them another major appearance (Marx, Magolar, Daroach, and Haltmann).

ahem...

Main villains in 3 kirby games, and unconfirmed but pretty obvious being the villains in other kirby games, I present you to Dark Matter in its swordsman form and in it's real form, these things can possess others and take many forms.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Has the nomination list been updating lately? I have not seen it in a while in my time of rating here the past few days.

 

[Wyoming]

Nominations should be a bit quicker as it tends to be the.top 10 or so hogging all the votes as people try to get their character in. It leaves a lot of characters or interesting concepts to be way behind the pack.

Maybe add the top 15 to the schedule for now?

 

[Wyoming]

Ok, so I did the calculations on the noms since the last time @PK_Wonder updated. Just gotta sort it out in order. I am including the noms after the day had ended today.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Marx
13.80% Chance
46.16% Want

Hey Hey! Marx actually did better in want than I think he would have. I honestly would love to see this rated in a couple of months to see if this is hype.

Capybara Gaming and @Icedragonadam predicted the same score. They each get 5 extra noms today.

Wyoming an updated noms list will be appreciated.

Today we are rating Lucina in chance and want and predicting the concept of No Cuts from Smash 4s roster.

 

[Cosmic77]

Lucina

Chance: 33%
I don't really know what to say here, as it could easily go either way. She's a popular FE character, but she's also the most expendable one on the roster due to being the least unique. Because I feel like FE as a whole is already in a tight spot, I'm just gonna say she has a 2/3 chance of getting cut because of Roy and Corrin being there too.

Want: 20%
I was never really a huge fan of Lucina to begin with, but her fanbase and oversaturation in everything just made me dislike her even more. Since we already have a more unique Marth clone in Roy, I wouldn't really care if she got cut.

No cuts prediction: 42.6%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Deleted member]

Lucina

Chance: 50%

An expendable clone character that could potentially be a low priority. I can see this going either way.

Want: 50%

I also don't care either way.

Prediction: No Cuts - 75.4%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Wyoming]

TCT~Phantom

Spoiler: Nominations list, updated pre-Lucina

Top 7:

Elma x292
Concept: New Story Mode x240
Hades x233
Banjo & Kazooie x224
Dark Matter Blade (Kirby) x221
Arle Nadje (Puyo Puyo) x220
Henry Fleming (Codename STEAM) x219

Over 200

Micaiah x218
Sora x218
Ashley (WarioWare) x213
Geno x205
Blue Bowser x202

199-150

Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x196
Tethu (EverOasis) x192
Veteran: Lucas x181
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x179
Isabelle x172
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x163
Veteran: Mewtwo x160
Bomberman x155
Agumon x155
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x151

150-100

Black Shadow x138
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x130
Urban Champion x130
Sans (Undertale) x128
Funky Kong x125
Travis Touchdown x124
Impa x124
Kamek x124
Lycanroc x121
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x118
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x117
Veteran: Greninja x116
Dark Samus x114
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x111
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x108
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100

99-75

Spyro x97
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x88
Ryu Hayabusa x85
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x83
Excitebiker x82
Azura (Fire Emblem) x81
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x80
Simon Belmont x80
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x78
Lip (Panel de Pon) x75
Concept: Skyrim representation x75
Linkle x75

74-50

Octoling x70
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x70
Masked Link x69
Labo related character x68
Mipha x68
Cranky Kong x62
Sylux x56
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x50
Klonoa x50

49-30:

Zeraora (Pokémon) x49
Veteran: Roy x48
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x46
Parabo and Satebo x45
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x44
Lara Croft x44
Lloyd Irving x42
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) x41
Thwomp x38
Gengar x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Susie (Kirby) x35
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x35
Katrielle Layton x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x31
Concept: Wars character x31
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x31

29-15

Dragonite x27
Snorlax x27
Ray (Custom Robo) x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x25
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x25
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Django (Boktai) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Papyrus (Undertale) x25 (NEW)
Concept: Style Savvy Character x 24
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x24
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x23 (NEW)
Concept: Indie Character x 22
Tingle x21
Scizor x 21
Veteran: Palutena x 21
Sable Prince x21
9-Volt x21
Arcade Bunny x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Viridi x20
Tom Nook x18
Mach Rider x17
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Steve (Minecraft) x17
Stage: New Donk City x16
Primarina x15 (NEW)

14 and less:

Starfy x14
Veteran: Robin x 14
Petey Piranha x13
Toon Zelda x13
Mimikyu x13
Tails x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Gooey (Kirby) x12
Veteran: Cloud x11
Toad x11
Veteran: Dark Pit x11
Samurai Goroh x10
Stanley the Bugman (Donkey Kong) x10
Donkey Kong Jr. x10
Endou Mamaru x10
Concept: Custom Final Smashes x10 (NEW)
Leo (FE Fates) x10 (NEW)
Barbara The Bat x10 (NEW)
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Veteran: Pac-Man x9
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x9
Dragonborn x9
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Ghirahim x8
Veteran: Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Zangoose (Pokemon) x6
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x6
Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight) x6
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x6
Kozukata Yori (Fatal Frame) x5
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Galacta Knight (Kirby) x5
Morag and Brighid (Xenoblade) x5
Master Chief x 5
Ninten (Mother) x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
King Hippo x5
Glass Joe x5
Master Hand x5
Solaire (Dark Souls) x5
Reinhardt (Fire Emblem) x5
Quote x5 (NEW)
Dr. Kawashima x5 (NEW)
Concept: Core Crystal Item (XC2) x 5 (NEW)
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) (NEW) x5
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
King Boo x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Veteran: Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Veteran: Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Saki x3 (NEW)
[Rerate] Isaac (Golden Sun) x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Concept: Snipperclips representation x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Jeanne (Bayonetta) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Slime (Dragon Quest) x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1
Concept: Entire roster revealed at E3 x1

I have the free time to do this on a daily basis. All I do is work, girlfriend, sleep. It took quite some time to do four consecutive days, but a day should be no biggie. If ye won't mind @PK_Wonder

Fun facts:

Bomberman didn't receive a single vote in the last 4 days, so he plummeted a few positions.
Ashley went from a respectable 2nd to outside the top 7. Looks like her folks nominating her either didn't post or were fine with 200 noms.
By contrast,Banjo went from having under 200 votes to top 4 in a flash.
Sora had a recent surge. First 2.5 days there was nothing special, but the 2nd half had a sizable boost.
Sylux went from the 30-25 range to over 50 noms.
Greninja got a nice boost in nominations.
Isabelle seems to be the character receiving noms the quickest.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Lucina

Chance: 50%

This can really go either way. She doesn't really take up a ''slot'' and took little time and effort to make. However Sakurai already felt not too comfortable with 5-6 FE characters in Smash and with Awakening's hype cooled down, it doesn't really need to be represented with more than one character.

I think she will likelier get changed to be an alt for in the vein as .

Want: 10%

I honestly couldn't care less.

Predictions for no cuts: 37.55%

Nominations: Hades x5

 

[Opossum]

Hell yeah time to be controversial.

Chance: 90%
She's outlandishly popular within the Fire Emblem fanbase. She's got a metric ton of merchandise (easily more than any other Fire Emblem character) and Intelligent Systems pushes her a lot, including making Koei Tecmo add her to Warriors when they initially didn't plan to. In Heroes she ranked as the second most popular female character, and third for characters over all when both of Ike's votes were added. She was the first character to get a "[Character] Emblem" team in Heroes due to having four versions of herself in the game. In many ways, she's one of the faces of the franchise.

I think a Fire Emblem character is getting cut, but I think it'll be Roy. Lucina is not only more popular, but also takes a lot less development time.

Want: 100%
I enjoyed her character in Awakening. Not my favorite Fire Emblem character, but probably in my top twenty five at least.

Predicting a 65% for No Cuts.
Nominating Marth Gets His English Voice x5

 

[Troykv]

Lucina

Lucina is a extremely popular character (in fact, I wouldn't be joking if I said Lucina is one of the Fire Emblem Icons, even before appearing in Smash, unlike pretty much the rest of the non-Marth Icons); and is relative easy to do, in fact, I think, even if she ended up being low priority, she will have a way to slip into the roster like in Smash 3DS/Wii U

Chance: 90%

Want: 60%

I like her, she is one my favorite Awakening Characters.

________________________________

Prediction time!

Non Cuts: 43.5%

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5 (Wow, when we got so many extra nominations for the other characters?... and I though Micaiah would have her day this weekend)

 

[Aetheri]

One character fights for his friends, while another fights for her father...who'll never get his day...

Lucina

Chance: 40%
Being somewhat conservative...Lucina has proven to be a fan favourite character amoung the FE community and as a clone she is easy to work into the playable roster. But also being a clone means that she does have the issue of possibly being lower priority over other characters and her fellow FE lord Roy has missed the party at least twice before (second time he did make it in as DLC so technically just once)

Personally I don't think she's going anywhere but as it stands she's one of the most likely characters to get cut in this transition into Smash Switch...but at the same time she could very well get a similar treatment to that of Falco, Ganondorf, and Roy by being made into a slightly more unique semi-clone...and I think out of the 'true' clones of Smash 4 she's probably the most likely to get the update....it's hard to really predict her chances cuz it could go either way...

Want: 50%
Admittedly, I do use Lucina a fair amount...I like Marth's moveset, but only on characters that aren't Marth it seems...It's weird but I just can't play as him as effectively as Roy and Lucina...but once again it's weird due to my disdain of clone characters...

With that said I wouldn't be as sad to see her go since she's just one of several characters I use and I don't really play her as seriously as my primary characters (which includes Roy btw)...If she gets an update to being a semi-clone I might be more excited about her still being in the roster however...

----

Prediction:
No Character gets Cut-67.54%
Everyone needs to keep in mind that Melee was the only game that didn't cut veteran characters and that's mostly due to Smash 64 having a much smaller roster than the other smash titles...Now we have almost 60 different characters including the Mii Fighters, it's a lot harder to keep everything together as more and more content gets added with each iteration of Smash...but I still know everyone thinks everything will still return...

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chances: 75%
Among Smash 4's clone trio, she has the best chances to return.
She's the second most popular female FE character behind Lyn, is one of the faces of the franchise's savior, has several figures under her belt, and is easily made thanks to her being basically a genderbent , and I don't think she'll get the axe for a FE newcomer, as we have yet to see how FE Switch looks like and, once again, the FE fatigue.
The best case scenario is getting the treatment and being decloned from her model.

Want: 50%
Haven't minded her, tho from the clone trio, she was the most tasteless one for me.
If she's still in, fine. If not, oh well.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

No cuts prediction: 92.64%

 

[A Distant Demon]

Lucina

Lucina is one of the faces of Fire Emblem right now. She is quite easily one of the most popular characters in the entire series and the most popular character from arguably the most important game in the franchise. She has the right background to stay. That's undeniable. Her biggest issues actually have nothing to do with her credentials. The 2 things that are really relevant are

1. The fact she is a clone
2. Fire Emblem as a series.

Generally clones and derivatives have been on the chopping block before so she may wind up being low priority in favor of more unique options. Although this may wind up being in her favor as she would require loss dev time if she comes back as a clone. Being de-cloned would be another matter though

As for FE, it's one of, if not the only, times sakurai has mentioned that a series might be getting a bit too much representation. FE has had Heroes and Warriors to keep the series from going dormant like other times cuts have happened but it isn't too much growth. This will probably continue to be an issue. Combining with low priority this may be an issue.

Quite frankly she should be high priority. She is immensely popular and important and is absolutely on the Mount Rushmore for Fire Emblem. But the fact she was a clone might keep her back from the base roster just because Sakurai gets weird about these things.

IMO very likely to be coming back on the base roster, a lock for DLC otherwise. No way she is completely absent for Smash Switch's lifespan.

Want:: 100%
Just buff her a bit? Please? I love playing Marth and all but I would rather play as Lucina but Marth is just straight up better. Also let us wear the mask

Based on the nomination list it looks like Elma nominations are pointless
Not really anything I want to see get rated that isnt high. . .so I guess i'll keep nominating weeb ****
Noms: Marth and Roy get english VAs.

 

[WingedSupernova]

Lucina
Chance - 80%
I don't see her going anywhere. At the very least she'll be a costume swap with Marth. I think they could give her the Great Lord class that she has in Awakening and Heroes to flesh out her move set potential which would give her a spear, shield, and armor. That would be the ideal scenario in my eyes.
Want - 50%
She's a nice character in her game. I don't see a real reason to get rid of her unless they decide to keep her the same as she was before.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Lucina

Chance: 75% - She's popular with the Fire Emblem crowd, and she's a Smash veteran. Normally, this would make her likely to stay, and for the most part, it can. However, with the backlash of her being a clone, the backlash of there being too many Fire Emblem characters, and with Sakurai's concerns over the huge number of Fire Emblem characters, I think she's probably the most likely to go. Despite her popularity, the only way I can see her returning is if Sakurai makes her into an alt for Marth, as she was originally intended to be, or her moveset gets reworked.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of keeping any of the clone characters, nor am I a fan of the current number of Fire Emblem characters.

Nominations: New Story Mode x5

 

[Deleted member]

Lucina
Chance- 75%
One of the most popular faces of fire emblem, i doubt she'll be going anywhere, unless sakurai dosent have time for clones to return(which i doubt it'll happen). And based on what dakurai said about doctor mario and how he feels his fans would be mad if he was an alt (also the reason why he, wolf, and roy werent alt. Costumes) werent, i dont think she will ever return to be an alternate costume. Also being a clone it would be essy for her to be implemented, and i think sakurai will change her just a little to differentiate her from marth and roy.
Want 100%-
Love Lucina nothing else to say.

(Forgot my Prediction) Prediction-
No cuts- 43.7%
I want to believe this will happen but idk.

Noms:
Lana-x4
Tethu-x1

 

[Nimbostratus]

Lucina
Chance- 83%
I'm of the opinion that we are looking at Smash 4.5, in which case I don't see much reason for her to be removed. Even if it is a completely new game with a new engine, there's still a decent chance she could slip in as a popular clone. Some of that missing 17% is just the possibility that she gets shuffled into being a Marth alt, which is unlikely but possible.
Want- 90%
I won't cry over the loss of a clone, but I like Lucina as a character and enjoy playing her in Smash.

No Cuts Predictions- 59%

Nominations:
Ashley x5
Foolish me for missing a couple days and then burning a couple votes to needlessly help Banjo. I have failed you.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I think Lucina is among one of the characters that have the chance to get cut in the game due to time constraints in favor of new last-minute dessert clones, much like with Brawl & Smash 4. Lucina’s fan-popularity can potentially put her in high priority, but who knows what veterans will Sakurai try to prioritize. Her being in Smash Switch entirely depends on priority position and time constraints. I cannot imagine her being higher priority than unique newcomers and mainstay unique veterans.

x5 Sora

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Lucina Chance: 70%
Not really sure what to say here. She's important to her franchise, sure, and that clone status means she's easy to implement, but that clone status also means she's nigh certainly in the low priority spot, and that's never a good spot to be in, even for a clone. So... yeah.

Want: 25%
This one's weird. I actually wouldn't mind Lucina too much if at all as long as she was altered to stand out more from Marth than just "no tipper", but at the same time, is there really much of a point of doing such? She's important, sure, but Smash can live without her very easily. I mean, it lived without Chrom, who's just as important as she is, so Smash can live without Lucina.

No Cuts Predictions: 60%
I've been dreading the day for this one.

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Lucina

Chance - 75% (combined chances of both returning as a standalone character OR chance of coming back as a Marth costume)

She's an incredibly popular Fire Emblem character, so I really don't think she'll be cut entirely from the game. However, I can't really see her being a high priority character in terms of development, so there's always that chance she'll be cut, assuming development time is cut a bit short.

Want - 25%

I want to get something off the bat right away: As a Fire Emblem fan, I hate Lucina. She's such a boring and drab character. Her personality is literally nothing but "GOTTA PROTECT DADDY AND PREVENT THE BAD FUTURE" with a little bit of "I can't understand jokes," which gets old real fast. I seriously don't know how Chrom could give birth to such a boring daughter. Like, couldn't of any of the things that make Chrom cool rub off on her?

However, we're talking about Smash, not Fire Emblem. If she comes back, I won't be upset in the slightest, but if she doesn't, I'd be more than fine with that as well.

Nominations:
Gengar x5

 

[Kotor]

Lucina

Chance: 95%
Lucina's popular. Too popular. Like, when Intelligent Systems hosted the first Choose Your Legends poll for Fire Emblem Heroes back in 2017, they thought Lucina was gonna win the women's vote, but Lyn came in and surprised them. They commented they were surprised by Lyn beating Lucina. Maybe they already had her Brave Heroes art all ready and they did the vote to figure out the most popular FE male. After the vote, they announced the 2nd place winners were gonna receive the special heroes alt as well, and Lucina happened to be the 2nd place female. Another funny thing is that Koei Tecmo didn't want to put Lucina in Fire Emblem Warriors, but Intelligent Systems told them to put her in the game anyway.

And yet, I've seen some people are cut happy on getting rid of Lucina. Yeah, Lucina is a Marth clone, but were Falco and Ganondorf cut from the jump to Melee to Brawl? No, they were tweaked. Really, Lucina shouldn't even be a Marth clone. In Awakening, it was stated her fighting style is based on Chrom. But, the most probable situation is that Lucina would have her moveset tweaked so it's not just Marth but no tipper. This should be her idle pose. I'd be disappointed if they didn't change that at least.

Want: 80%
I'm not even crazy about Lucina. I prefer Olivia. But, I don't want to see Lucina (and to an extent Roy and Corrin) cut for a petty reason like "too many FE characters." Considering the nature of the Fire Emblem series being a large cast of new characters each game (remakes and sequels typically adding a few characters to the main cast), is a limit on how many characters Fire Emblem can have in Smash even necessary? Do people have a limit on how many characters Pokemon can have playable?

Nominations
Concept: Marth and Roy get their English VAs x5

 

[Aetheri]

I seriously don't know how Chrom could give birth to such a boring daughter.

To be fair Chrom didn't give birth to her...it was Sumia/Olivia/Maribelle/Sully/FemRobin/Random Peasant Maiden that did...

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 35%

I feel like Roy has a better chance of returning, seeing he's more unique and was in another Smash game, and is also somewhat popular. I notice that important characters who are clones tend to get decloned, where as unimportant clone characters tend to get cut. Lucina isn't all that important, seeing as she's the tritagonist of her game, but popularity could lead to her being decloned. Otherwise, she'll likely be low priority under all of the characters who aren't just someone else.

Want: 15%

Only if she's decloned, otherwise it's not worth it.

Nominations: Urban Champion ×5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Lucina
Chance: 66%
I think she's more likely to stay than leave, but clones have typically been the first on the chopping block.

Want: 100%
She was among my most-wanted for Smash 4 and I don't want her leaving. Clone is fine, just stick around.

 

[Wyoming]

I challenge my slot!

Chance: 50%
The fact that Intelligent Systems likes her is a big boost to her chances. She seems like a character they will take the time to Luigify from the get go based on her popularity and position within her franchise/company.

This, however, could make her low priority. She has two-game veteran Roy that already has notable differences from his clone whilst maintaining the no-tipper feature to compete with, and that's not including Corrin who is already more unique.

Want: 50%
I like her. I do agree that Roy's inclusion kind of hurts her presence, though. I prefer to not see cuts, but she's one of the more expandable characters for sure.

No Cuts prediction: 37.5%
Probably the hardest one to predict. This forum seems to be split on the issue due to no knowledge of the game. Definitely something to re-rate once information comes.

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Graizen]

Lucina
Chances: 10%
Want: 0%

In addition to the fact that we do not need more Fire Emblem characters in the game.
In addition to having many other Fire Emblem characters better to put in the game.
She's going to be a Clone again.
And I do not want any more clones, please.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Lucina

Chance: 50%
I'd say, out of all the characters from Smash 4, she (and Dark Pit) are the likeliest to be cut. They're the clones with the least differences from their counterparts, and were the two that were created the most hastily near the end of development. Due to Sakurai saying he really doesn't want to cut any characters, I'm placing her at a higher percentage, but if that hadn't been said, I probably would have given her a much lower score.

Want: 0%
I have no real desire for her, as the is one of the lowest effort clones of the bunch. I also really don't care about fire emblem, which is the only reason I put her bellow Dark Pit, as I'm quite fond of Kid Icarus: Uprising.

Nominations: Fawful x5