Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

Lucina

Chance - 67.5% - Clones are in a hard spot. We already know that Sakurai has expressed concern about over representation of the franchise, and a clone is typically saved for last and cut if necessary. Still, IS is pushing for her, so who knows? Roy or Corrin might be cut instead.

Want - 50% - Eh. Won't miss her if she were gone.


Predictions

No Cuts - 34.53% - We've become deserved to them, honestly...


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[NeonBurrito]

think this might be the first time we see this happen in the series' history.

Melee didn't cut anyone from 64.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Lucina
Chance: 95%
I have been waiting for this one. I know Lucina gets a lot of flak from the clone haters and the "FE has too many slots" crowd, but the fact is that Lucina is still a strong face of the FE series and still a heavily popular character, and proof of that is that she made it to the top four of the first CYL poll for Fire Emblem Heroes.

Lucina has the backing of Intelligent Systems who has a say on which FE characters get put into Smash. Proof of this is as some have mentioned, Intelligent Systems requested for Lucina to be in FE Warriors when she originally wasn't going to.

Of course she was originally going to be Marth's alt, but Sakurai decided to give her own slot and give her the function of being a beginner's Marth, and he could still feel that way, besides clone characters are a lot easier to work on, and Sakurai considers them akin to bonus characters. Honestly, even if she did became Marth's alt, she still has a playable presence on the roster, Lucina is here to stay.

Want: 100%
I love Awakening, and Lucina is one of my favorite FE females. Even if she is relegated to being Marth's alt, I will still use her all the same.

x5 to Geno

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Lucina should be an alt for Marth.

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

 

[andimidna]

Imagine giving a 1st party veteran a 10% lmao
No offense

Lucina:

It seems p easy to assume that this game started as a port, so they’d probably only remove assets if they didn’t have time to do whatever updates they found necessary when translating over. Since this isn’t confirmed, there is some uncertainty that reduces her odds.
I just can’t see them actively removing assets just to please this vocal minority crowd obsessed with the series representation through number of slots on the roster, especially when what they’re saying doesn’t hold much value
She’s popular ofc. I don’t think she’s necessarily at all. Robin does Awakening justice well.
Even if it’s not a port, all veterans are clearly the obvious front runners minus special circumstances
“But she started as an alt.” Yea, and they reimagined her with tweaks, and saw that as more fitting. They actively chose to have her as a clone over an alt.
Chance: 78%
It’s not in the bag though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her gone, and I try to keep my numbers kinda conservative
Want: 95%
I love her character, but it’s not a full 100% bc she didn’t really translate into an interesting smash character. She had some good lines, and I do play her, but I played Marth in Brawl anyway. Just like I don’t dislike clone characters, it’s hard to be extremely attached to them.
Also, I’m assuming her being cut would be more specifically being demoted back to an alt, which is fine by me. I don’t know why, but I preferred her moveset, but not enough that I’d whine about it
The decloned Lucina mod is great though. I.D love to see that. Even though it’s nothing conceptually new, it’s so elegant

Predictions: No Cuts- 37%
Probably will be underrated lbr

x1 Style Savvy character
x3 Azura
x1 Ghirahim

 

[DaUsername]

Another vet rate? I feel like these are kind of a waste of a day honestly. Maybe I should just nominate a day to rating all the veterans chances and wants...it'd be hell for the ones adding up the scores though...hmmm...

I think the Smash 4 RTC made all days with concepts/veterans/rerates doubke days, maybe we should do something like that?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Rule 63 Marth

Chance: 85%
Want: 10%

I doubt they’ll cut too many characters, but I could easily see the alts turned back into alts for their respective characters. Especially since Lucy is literally a Marth gender swap - they only removed the tipper to make her.

That was the thing with Sm4sh’s clones - they were very low-effort things, but you didn’t feel like it was a bonus unless you liked the character. Especially with that one “get a hundred KOs on Cruel Smash blindfolded with one hand using worse Marth” challenge (meanwhile, I play best with the characters whose challenges entailed “hover the cursor ofer Link’s portrait once”). Yeah, a free dessert, but one they force down your throat to get stuff unlocked after you said you don’t like the flavor.

It did really seem like even Melee’s clones were not exactly the same - or at least had different tier standings. Pit and his color swap are literally the same when considering tiers. Brawl Luigified everyone nicely, then we go right back to straight up clones for overrepped series - why do you think people are unhappy about more free stuff for those series?

Anyway, if Lucy comes back getting Luigified (or a spear moveset?), then maybe. But honestly, I’m good without her. Ike, Marth, and Robin are good for FE for me, and Roy is uncloned enough that I don’t need another.

Prediction for No Cuts: 50.0%
Nom: Mewtwo x5

Also, the nom list is getting pretty big again - I’m up for more double days. Maybe we can do double weekends if all two a day is too much?

 

[RandomAce]

Okay, I’m back to do some rating.

Lucina:

Chance: 25% (Reduced to alt for Marth)
Lucina’s chances are pretty slim here. Unlike Dark Pit, Lucina is from a franchise that has been considered oversaturated by many and even the director himself, not to mention that she is a carbon copy of Marth (she even shares idle animations) but also a second character to a game that already has a character to represent that (Robin) Lucina returning is pretty slim. And with the upcoming FE Switch on the horizon, they might want try to adding a character from that game into Smash without having 7 fire emblem characters and want to stay at 6.

Lucina is still popular enough to not be completely removed from the Smash so I think that she will most likely be an alt for Marth.

Want: 70%
Although I main Lucina, I would be fine if she reverted into an alt so I could still play her (and not worry if she or Marth is better). However, I would get pissed if she was removed entirely.

Prediction: No Cuts:

Chance: (HA HA!!!) 15%

Nominations:
x5 Lycanroc

 

[DBPirate]

Lucina
Chance: 75%

One of the most popular Fire Emblem characters and very easy to make. Honestly I would be surprised if she didn’t return, but there’s always a small chance.

Want: 55%

I don’t really want any characters cut but since she’s one of the clones, I wouldn’t miss her too much. However, she was the one clone that I preferred to their counterpart so she’s my favorite of the bunch.

Nomination: Masked Link x5

 

[SethTheMage]

Lucina:

Chance: 80% - Since Smash 4's release, she has managed to stay relevant throughout recent years. She had playable guest appearances in Codename S.T.E.A.M. and Fates, she was a featured character in FE Warriors, and she has gotten tons of exposure through FE Heroes. If one of the three clones had to go, I think she'd be the last on the chopping block. I honestly think Corrin will be cut before Lucina, as they aren't nearly as notable to the FE series (or as popular), despite having a completely original moveset. That being said, I don't know Sakurai, and he might see her as being little more than her clone status and low on the priority list. Plus, with Smash 4's roster being as big as it is, we might see more cuts than ever.

Want: 80% - I honestly want to see her get at least somewhat de-cloned (maybe take her balanced swordplay archetype and expand on it); I thought she was a fun character with an interesting concept (a story arc similar to Trunks from DBZ) when I played Awakening, and I would love to have her step out from under Marth's shadow. I'd miss her if she left, but not enough to be super disappointed over it, like I was when Roy and Wolf were cut.


Prediction:

No Cuts: 1.57%


Nomination:

Sans x5

 

[Edgelord_197]

Lucina
Chance 50%
It’s really up in the air

Want 5%
Does Awakening need 2 reps? Sure it saved the series, but one is ok. Robin does a good job of representing it.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

I know I missed Marx's day, but I guess I'll show up when I feel like it. Either ways, I would have scored a 70% want score for Marx - Wouldn't mind him eventually, but would want Bandanna Dee first before any other Kirby Newcomer. (Not that it matters now that Marx's scores are already calculated)



Chance: 80%
Lucina's a very, very popular and beloved character in her home series, so I don't think she'll be going anywhere for Smash Bros. The least I could see being done is her getting a moveset overhaul to try and make her more distinct from Marth. I'd go with making her a Great Lord and having her use a Spear, similar to the one she uses in FEH as a Brave Hero.

That, or get dunked on by an Easter Egg.

Spoiler

Want: 100%
Even though she's a clone character, I'd keep her anyway, but give her much more character and identity to separate her from Marth. Full stop.

 

[Cycrum]

Lucina

Chance: 87%
Although she is a clone of Marth and one of six Fire Emblem representatives (which is something that even Sakurai has said is a bit much), she is also one of the franchise's most popular characters overall, and even Intelligent Systems has recognized this by pushing her for Warriors despite there being no plans for her to be in it. Also, clone characters take very little time at all to make and are typically brought back or are planned to for the game after their debut, so she is likely to come back as a clone or as a Luigified semi-clone of sorts.

Want: 100%
I'm not a big fan of Fire Emblem or of Lucina herself, but I also hate when a character gets cut. I'm not sure why, but there always seems to be some void left with a cut character's absence. (That is, except for Young Link, who was basically replaced with Toon Link.)

Predictions:
Concept: No Cuts: 52.55%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x4
Spyro x1

 

[VexTheHex]

Imagine giving a 1st party veteran a 10% lmao
No offense

While that is low, Lucina does have a lot going against her. We may not wind up with any cuts, but there has been cuts since Melee to Brawl. Now I don't agree the notion that there is obvious patterns, but it does seem possible some of the low effort or priority characters may of just been roster padding that will be thrown out next go around.

Lucina is not Smash popular. Robin seems to have sparked more interest than her. Roy was always popular for some reason.
Lucina is the 2nd clone of Marth. This did not end well for Wolf and he was much less a clone than she.
Lucina is less popular in Smash than her rival clone, though he suffers from being DLC.
Lucina is from the series Sakurai down right pointed out he had concerns it was over saturated.
Lucina could easily be demoted to a costume with little loss of her move set.

And lastly, I have seen people parading around that Mewtwo, Greninja, Wii Fit Trainer, Lucas, and other characters are obvious cuts. If those unique and more fleshed out characters can be called out as easy cuts by some, then yes I do think the glorified alternate costume with it's own spot on the roster could be in danger of removal or demotion.

Not sure I understand why people think Pokemon HAS to have a cut, but Fire Emblem should be safe from it.

Also from the standpoint of a Fire Emblem character being cut, do we really want to see someone with an original move set get cut in favor of a clone? The only other option is Roy. Roy is our boy though, we know he has that Smash popularity. So if someone goes, it should be her or Roy.

 

[Fenriraga]

Manlier Marth

Chance: 50%
I dunno honestly. She's a clone, but she's a very popular character both in and out of Smash. I'd say her chances of leaving are just as good as staying.

Want: 50%...?
This is really tough. Lucina is one of my favorite characters in the series, but I really don't like how Smash handled her. The thing is, yes, Lucina poses as Marth, but technically she does NOT actually fight like Marth. She fights like Chrom because he's the one who raised her. And contrary to what people think, Chrom's sword style is NOT the same as Marth's. It's more comparable to Ike, but it still has at least some unique elements to it. She's not even a Marth clone in Warriors, she's a Chrom clone.

So I'd like her to come back, but I also really don't like her as a pure Marth clone. Maybe if they pull a Roy and just give her at least a few attacks to differentiate herself from the Hero King at least a BIT more.

Geno x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

I would be shocked if Lucina is reverted to an alt.

After what we know about Sakurai after what he said about Dr Mario, Lucina being downgraded so drastically would be a huge turnaround.

And frankly that wouldn't even make any sense. If Lucina is an alt they already have the animations and model done. Literally all they have to do is give her new taunts/victory poses and change her tipper. (Maybe trophies but i think alts already get those?) And we already know that balancing the alts-turned-clones is much easier than balancing a regular character.

Lucina going from alt to clone is such a small amount of work that I honestly can't think of a single reason why they wouldn't bother other than being extremely pressed for time (which I doubt). At that point just upgrade her so Lucina fans can get a bit more. Not like she would be replacing anyone's "slots" at that point. An alt just doesn't make sense IMO.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Sweet I finally won, anyways

Lucina

Chance: 50%

Want: 90%

It could go either way, she has the advantage of being an iconic FE character now and she was a last minute clone, so she can make it back. On the other hand her being a clone can get her cut and Robin represents Awakening as well and has a unique moveset among the FE cast.

But I wouldn't mind her being back.

No Cuts Prediction: 48.67%

Nominations

Lucas x6
Stage: New Donk City x4

 

[Pennate]

Lucina:

Chance: 90%
Lucina is a highly popular character from the game that saved the Fire Emblem franchise, and IS has been making a grand effort to push her into as many titles as possible. Moreover, as a clone, Lucina would take very little effort to recreate in Smash 5, and if she were considered too late into the development cycle to appear in her current state, Lucina's model could be simply changed back into a skin for Marth.

Want: 50%
I have no reason to object to Lucina's inclusion, but I wouldn't be fazed if she were cut from the roster. However, if she does return, I'd prefer for her to receive a moveset more accurate to her portrayal in Awakening,

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Lucy

Chance- 80%
Yeah, clones are almost always on the chopping block, but she is one of the most iconic FE characters, and iirc was pretty popular pre smash 4. I think she's one of the more safer clones, at least more so than Dark Pit.

Want- 60%
Veterans are cool. As long as we get the cooler Marth clone, shes welcome to stay

NO CUTS- 32.64%

Banjo Kazooie X 3
Thwomp X 2

 

[TheFritzle]

Lucina Chance:
80%
Lucina was a last minute clone. She didn't take up much time or resources to put in the game. I don't see why they would cut her if she doesn't take up that much room. Aside from being really popular, she also requires almost no work to put in the game. It is possible that they cut her, maybe just make her a Marth alt.

Lucina Want:
90%
I really like Lucina. I don't really have any other reason than that, I just like her. I would must prefer they bring her back with her lance and shield, but they probably won't.

No Cuts Predictions:
62.94%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Lucina

Chance: 55%

Want: 50%
I want them to give her some unique moves if she comes back.

Nominations: Hades x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lucina
Chance: 60% (100% if alts count)
Lucina is a lot harder to differentiate from Marth than Roy is. I can see her being reduced back to an alt of Marth. I don’t think IS will mind as long as she’s still playable.
Want: 70%

No Cuts prediction: 22% - Some people are going to massively overrate this.

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lucina

95% Chance
100% Want

A popular vet that is super easy to make. I honestly struggle to see her cut. Then again I struggle to see any FE cuts. The fact that she is so easy to make and port over makes cutting her not that worth it.

Also I don’t like cuts

Nominating Spyro x 5


Day over, calcs and schedule for tomorrow onward in the morning.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Noms list

Top 7:

Spoiler: Noms list

Elma x293
Concept: New Story Mode x250
Hades x243
Banjo & Kazooie x232
Sora x232
Dark Matter Blade (Kirby) x226
Henry Fleming (Codename STEAM) x226

Over 200

Micaiah x223
Ashley (WarioWare) x223
Arle Nadje (Puyo Puyo) x220
Geno x220
Blue Bowser x212
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x207

199-150

Tethu (EverOasis) x198
Veteran: Lucas x187
Isabelle x182
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x180
Veteran: Mewtwo x170
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x163
Agumon x160
Ganon x156
Bomberman x155


150-100

Black Shadow x144
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x135
Urban Champion x135
Sans (Undertale) x133
Lycanroc x131
Impa x129
Funky Kong x127
Travis Touchdown x127
Kamek x126
Veteran: Greninja x121
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x119
Dark Samus x119
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x118
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x111
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x111
Spyro x103
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100

99-75

Ryu Hayabusa x90
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x85
Simon Belmont x85
Azura (Fire Emblem) x84
Masked Link x84
Excitebiker x82
Lip (Panel de Pon) x80
Linkle x80
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x78
Concept: Skyrim representation x75

74-50

Mipha x73
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Octoling x70
Labo related character x68
Cranky Kong x65
Sylux x61
Klonoa x55
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x55
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x54
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x50


49-30:

Zeraora (Pokémon) x49
Veteran: Roy x48
Parabo and Satebo x47
Lara Croft x47
Gengar x47
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) x46
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x44
Lloyd Irving x42
Thwomp x40
Katrielle Layton x38
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Susie (Kirby) x35
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x31
Concept: Wars character x31
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x31
Papyrus (Undertale) x30

29-15

Snorlax x29
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x28
Dragonite x27
Ray (Custom Robo) x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x25
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x25
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Django (Boktai) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x24
Concept: Indie Character x 22
Tingle x21
Scizor x 21
Veteran: Palutena x 21
Sable Prince x21
9-Volt x21
Steve (Minecraft) x21
Arcade Bunny x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Viridi x20
Stage: New Donk City x20
Tom Nook x18
Tails x18
Mach Rider x17
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Mimikyu x17
Leo (FE Fates) x16
Primarina x15
Toon Zelda x15

14 and less:

Starfy x14
Veteran: Robin x 14
Petey Piranha x13
Endou Mamaru x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Gooey (Kirby) x12
Veteran: Cloud x11
Toad x11
Veteran: Dark Pit x11
Samurai Goroh x10
Stanley the Bugman (Donkey Kong) x10
Donkey Kong Jr. x10
Concept: Custom Final Smashes x10
Barbara The Bat x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Veteran: Pac-Man x9
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x9
Dragonborn x9
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Ghirahim x9
Sakura Shinguijn x8 (NEW)
Veteran: Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Zangoose (Pokemon) x6
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x6
Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight) x6
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x6
Kozukata Yori (Fatal Frame) x5
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Galacta Knight (Kirby) x5
Morag and Brighid (Xenoblade) x5
Master Chief x 5
Ninten (Mother) x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
King Hippo x5
Glass Joe x5
Master Hand x5
Solaire (Dark Souls) x5
Reinhardt (Fire Emblem) x5
Quote x5
Dr. Kawashima x5
Concept: Core Crystal Item (XC2) x5
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x5
Veteran: Dr. Mario x5 (NEW)
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x5 (NEW)
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
King Boo x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Veteran: Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Veteran: Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Saki x3
Weavile x3 (NEW)
[Rerate] Isaac (Golden Sun) x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Concept: Snipperclips representation x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Jeanne (Bayonetta) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Slime (Dragon Quest) x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1
Concept: Entire roster revealed at E3 x1

Changes:
-Lana breaks into the 200 group.
-Sora continued his meteoric rise, up to 5th and comfortably in the top 7.
-Arle Nadja, who started the day in the top 7, is the next victim of Sora's and Banjo's surge - following Ashley's footsteps.
-Spyro breaks through the 100 noms barrier.
-Masked Link and Concept: Marth/Roy get English VAs had the largest rise. Masked Link went from mid-table 74-50 to mid table 75-99 in a day. The concept enters the next tier: 74-50.
-Tetra also breaks through that tier, now at 51 noms.
-Papyrus joins the crew with over 30 nominations.
-Mimikyu, Tails, Toon Zelda, and Leo are no longer in the red (lowest) tier, breaking over 15 noms.
-The new additions: Sakura Shinguijn (x8), Dr. Mario (x5), Weavile (x3), and Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash (x5)

UPDATED WITH THE FIVE POSTS THAT FOLLOWED IT. In the future I will only do them once the calculations are officially done.

 

[wildvine47]

Melee didn't cut anyone from 64.

I meant "since Smash 64".

I totally didn't forget that no cuts has happened before no sir definitely didn't do that

 

[Arthur97]

Lucina
Chance: 60% (100% if alts count)
Lucina is a lot harder to differentiate from Marth than Roy is. I can see her being reduced back to an alt of Marth. I don’t think IS will mind as long as she’s still playable.
Want: 70%

No Cuts prediction: 22% - Some people are going to massively overrate this.

Nominations: New story mode x5

Why is she harder? She uses lances, and has been seen to use bows and even has animations from Awakening and even Warriors to draw from. Roy has some animations from Binding Blade and...fire.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I'm impressed, she got plenty of high scores. :D

 

[andimidna]

While that is low, Lucina does have a lot going against her. We may not wind up with any cuts, but there has been cuts since Melee to Brawl. Now I don't agree the notion that there is obvious patterns, but it does seem possible some of the low effort or priority characters may of just been roster padding that will be thrown out next go around.

Lucina is not Smash popular. Robin seems to have sparked more interest than her. Roy was always popular for some reason.
Lucina is the 2nd clone of Marth. This did not end well for Wolf and he was much less a clone than she.
Lucina is less popular in Smash than her rival clone, though he suffers from being DLC.
Lucina is from the series Sakurai down right pointed out he had concerns it was over saturated.
Lucina could easily be demoted to a costume with little loss of her move set.

And lastly, I have seen people parading around that Mewtwo, Greninja, Wii Fit Trainer, Lucas, and other characters are obvious cuts. If those unique and more fleshed out characters can be called out as easy cuts by some, then yes I do think the glorified alternate costume with it's own spot on the roster could be in danger of removal or demotion.

Not sure I understand why people think Pokemon HAS to have a cut, but Fire Emblem should be safe from it.

Also from the standpoint of a Fire Emblem character being cut, do we really want to see someone with an original move set get cut in favor of a clone? The only other option is Roy. Roy is our boy though, we know he has that Smash popularity. So if someone goes, it should be her or Roy.

A lot of what you said is totally fine, and I kept those things in mind when I gave her less than 100%, but I wanna be a little nitpicky.
The people pushing for the removal of characters like Greninja and Mewtwo have no bearing on anything, and are definitely pretty disconnected from this process and how to predict what’s likely and what makes sense.
I also don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone make a roster with Mewtwo or Greninja cut while keeping all 6 FE veterans fully in tact. I doubt that exists
And I agree that if an FE character was cut, it’d be Lucina/Roy, Lucina being the most likely. Not Corrin, and definitely not Robin
But yea, most of this is what you have to consider to rate her

 

[Troykv]

I'm impressed, she got plenty of high scores. :D

I'm impressed some people have such poor fate in her.

Or are you talking about the Want? o.o

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Lucina
Chance: 90%
The only thing in her way is potentially becoming an alt for Marth. But even if she got cut entirely I feel like they would just bring her back as dlc. She is just way too popular to disappear entirely.

Want: 85%
I like Awakening and I like Lucina.

Nominations: Ashley (Warioware) x5

 

[Erureido]

Lucina

Chance: 50%

I feel like Lucina is in a coin-toss right now. On the one hand, she has become one of the faces of modern Fire Emblem with plenty of popularity from her home series. On the other hand, she was turned into a clone to fill up the Smash 4 roster on the last minute, and Sakurai has even expressed concern over the current number of Fire Emblem reps in the Smash roster. Of all the Fire Emblem characters, I think she has the highest chance of being cut, but I think her cut won't be a complete removal. Rather, she'll be demoted to an alternate costume for Marth like she was originally meant to be.

Want: 50%

I don't care for her that much as a character, so I'm in between whether or not she comes back. If she does, that's fine. If she doesn't, I won't be bothered all that much. If they manage to bring her back as a separate fighter while being decloned, I'd be quite cool with that.

------

Predictions

No Cuts: 48.48%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

TBH What's even the point of ending a day at night if ratings are still allowed until the morning. Just end the day in the morning at that point

 

[Scamper52596]

Lucina

Chance: 80%
Sakurai himself doesn't like cutting characters, and while she could possibly be lower priority she's so similar to Marth that cutting her would be a waste of a character at that point. She might as well come back. Her being so popular among the Fire Emblem community is all the more reason to bring her back.
I'll give the princess of Ylisse an 80% chance. Easy come, easy go probably won't apply to this character...

Want: 75%
I enjoy casually playing Lucina in Smash 4, and prefer to play her over Marth. She's not necessarily a character that would make me sad to see cut, but I'd definitely like it if she stuck around.

Prediction
No Cuts: 45.3%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2

 

[ProfPeanut]

Lucina

Chance: 65%
Amongst the clones, Lucina looks like the one closest to the chopping block, and yet she also has probably the strongest arguments amongst them to prevent such a thing from happening to her. She appears relatively low-effort, she's strictly worse than Marth, she's a 2nd clone of an existing moveset now that Roy's back, and she's the most expendable part of the Fire Emblem bloat. And yet, she was popular even without Smash Bros, Sakurai doesn't kick out clones if he can help it, and she takes up so few resources that cutting her makes the least sense in terms of saving effort.

It's unlikely we'll see her be truly decloned. Lucina is characterized by her emulation of Marth, which makes her someone who's a contextually interesting character, yet essentially has to stick to Marth's moveset. If you want to go for a different moveset to portray her independence, then you might be better off picking another Fire Emblem lord by that point.


Want: 50%
I'd take clones out if I could, but it's clear that's not how Sakurai sees it. And besides, do you how know few decent female protagonists Fire Emblem actually has, let alone ones with a practical wardrobe? Enshrine that example in the history of video games!


Prediction:
No Cuts: 75%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5

 

[ssbashworld]

Lucina
Chances: 50%
Probably comes down to time. Not a hard character to bring over with her being a clone but probably not priority if time is tight.

Want: 5%
Actually not a big fan of Lucina. Marth will for sure be back so it kind of makes Lucina pointless although she would make a nice Marth alt like she should have been to begin with.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok I have Class until 330 EDT so I will not have the calcs for Lucina ready. Wyoming had compiled noms and has the schedule.

Please rate Concept: No Cuts in chance and Want and Predict Elma.

 

[BluePikmin11]

There being no cuts entirely depends on how willing Sakurai is going to go for Smash Switch. Sakurai already gave it his all when he created two versions of a new Smash game with Wii U and 3DS and even moreso with DLC, and now he is creating a Smash Switch version of the game filled with new character with even more pressure to avoid a large amount of cuts as much as possible to avoid major fan-backlash. It heavily depends on how Sakurai approaches Smash Switch. Will he make it a straight port with a lot of new content to make his job easier? Or will he push even further and make an almost entirely new game starting from scratch? A 50/50 situation in my opinion. At the least he only has to make one version for this game, and there is a possibility that his skills at developing two versions could vastly aid him in avoiding cuts for this game.

I like to think that Sakurai would go for the former option, given how much care was put into gameplay balance for the entire Smash 4 roster. I also like to think that this game originally started as a port that evolved into something much bigger, thus cuts are not an issue. But who knows, he might wanna start on scratch to challenge himself? I have no idea which situation is likelier at the moment.

x5 Octolings

 

[Mario123311]

No cuts
Chance and Want: Abstain

It kind of depends on wether this will reuse assets/code from Smash 4 or is entirely a new game IMO, but if we had to talk about what really mattered to me? I just hope none of the third parties from Smash 4 get cut.

Nominate Klonoa x5

 

[Opossum]

Simple day today.

Chance: 1%
People expecting No Cuts are bound to be disappointed. Keep in mind Smash 4 was HEAVILY based on Brawl, which is proven by early builds using Brawl assets. Ease of porting means nothing. The game's been being worked on for about two years. It was definitely made from scratch.

Want: 95%
I love the vets. Only thing stopping this from being 100% is because that drastically lowers the odds of a Fire Emblem newcomer.

Predicting a 23.8 for Elma
Nominating Marth Gets His English Voice x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

No cuts
Chance: 5%

SSB5 most likely is being made on top of SSB4's engine, so they can bring over a lot of resources and that includes characters, but there are always some complications as to why some characters do not make the cut. For example, the IC were cut out of SSB4 because of they couldn't work properly on the 3DS version and in Wolf's case it was probably because of time constaints and being low priority. Third party characters have the biggest chance of having to be cut, Cloud especially, but Nintendo right now has good relationships with all the third party companies in this game, so I don't really see anyone getting the axe on the third party side. I guess it all depends on development and if time constaints are to come into play again.

Want: 100%
I am against cuts of any kind happening, and I think every character should return for this game, though it will be one hell of a big roster since SSB4's complete roster hit about 58. We could potentially have a 70 roster with no cuts in SSB5, just imagine that.

Elma: 22.34%

x5 to Geno