Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Runic_SSB]

Bomberman

Chance: 15%

Want: 15%

Black Shadow prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Opossum]

I really don't see how Super Bomberman R affects his chances in the slightest. The roster was likely decided at the end of 2016 at the latest, way before SBMR even came out. Sakurai doesn't usually alter his project plans that late into development.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Bomberman want: 0% (10-10*)

His moveset doesn't interest me very much. It's just a bunch of bombs. I think a stage inspired by the top-down bomberman levels would be great, though.

Nominations:

Neku x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Deleted member]

Bomberman
Chance and want 50%
Meh hes alright ig

Skipping predictioms today

Noms: sable prince x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

I really don't see how Super Bomberman R affects his chances in the slightest. The roster was likely decided at the end of 2016 at the latest, way before SBMR even came out. Sakurai doesn't usually alter his project plans that late into development.

I don't really think release date matters that much, just moreso when development on the game started. Assuming that Super Bomberman R's development took more than three or four months, it'd put him in a potentially good spot to catch Sakurai's eye.

If being in development during Smash planning doesn't mean anything, then we wouldn't have Robin or Greninja in Smash 4, and we will not be getting characters like Rex & Pyra, Springman, or Celica in Smash Switch, because they all had games released after "the end of 2016."

We also wouldn't have BotW Link either, because BotW came out after the project plan finished as well.

 

[BluePikmin11]

What will really matter is how well Bomberman did in the ballot for Sakurai to consider the character. That is how Sakurai got Mega Man in the game due to massive fan-requests. Such fan-requests will likely apply to third-party candidates for Smash Switch's roster plan again. Bomberman likely performed very well in votes, but then there is another matter with Konami though.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't really think release date matters that much, just moreso when development on the game started. Assuming that Super Bomberman R's development took more than three or four months, it'd put him in a potentially good spot to catch Sakurai's eye.

If being in development during Smash planning doesn't mean anything, then we wouldn't have Robin or Greninja in Smash 4, and we will not be getting characters like Rex & Pyra, Springman, or Celica in Smash Switch, because they all had games released after "the end of 2016."

Fire Emblem Awakening was released in 2012 in Japan, early enough to be on Sakurai's radar, while Greninja was a special case where he was shown early concept art by Game Freak/TPC. I doubt we'll ever see a Greninja situation with any third party character.

 

[NeonBurrito]

I doubt we'll ever see a Greninja situation with any third party character.

Oh no, I agree with you. I don't really think we'll be getting one either. Third parties are a lot more work than first party ones.
I just think that the notion of "release dates determine when characters will be getting in or not" is not an apt one, when we've seen it broken in every Smash game except for the original (Roy in Melee, Lucas and Lucario in Brawl, Greninja in Smash 4, etc.)

I feel like people need to remember that Nintendo sees games significantly earlier than we ever do.

 

[Wyoming]

He isn't on the schedule for this week, but he's basically guaranteed for next week.

That's the old schedule. He simply hasn't changed it. TCT~Phantom

 

[slambros]

Bomberman

Chance: 10%
Konami, Konami, Konami...

Want: 100%
Bomberman is a big character in my life, and I would love to have him in.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Bomberman

Chance: 15%
Bomberman R was out on the Switch day one right nya? So I think that helps him a bit mew... I'd personally expect Snake to return if we get a Konami character, but maybe Bomberman will pull out a "it was me, Dio!" on us all nya.

Want: 75%
Never played Bomberman, but explosives are my main method of relieving stress nya.

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[DaUsername]

Bummer, man
Chance: N/A
Konami characters are hard to rate.
Want: 100%
I really really like Bomberman. (Even though I've only played like 2 of his games.)

English Marth/Roy prediction: 42%
Black Shadow prediction: 7%
Noms: New Donk City x5

 

[Wyoming]

Nomination update!

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Ganon, pre-Bomburhmahn

Funky Kong x252
Sans x233
Agumon x230
Azura x224
KOS-MOS x221
Urban Champion x220
Dark Samus x214

Over 200:

Spyro x213
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x207
Sylux x202

199-150

Travis Touchdown x199
Mipha x198
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x195
Kamek x188
Masked Link x186
Mimikyu x185
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x182
Gengar x172
Parabo & Satebo x164
Lip x161
Concept: Skyrim representation x160
Tom Nook x153
Cranky Kong x150

149-100

Wonder Red x146
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x145
Ryu Hayabusa x135
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x134
Linkle x130
Neku Sakuraba x128
Papyrus x128
Excitebiker x124
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x123
Thwomp x121
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Lloyd Irving x110
Tetra x107
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x105
Katrielle Layton x104
Sakura Shinguji x103
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x100

99-75

Slippy Toad x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x86
Tingle x86
Steve x85
Sable Prince x84
Fjorm x75


74-50

Veronica x73
Klonoa x71
Django (Boktai) x70
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x70
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x70
Barbara x70
Labo related character x68
Zeraora (Pokémon) x61
Starfy x59
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x59
Lara Croft x57
Arcade Bunny x56
Ray x53
Gooey x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Returning game mode: Smash Run x50
Scorpion x50

49-30:


Balloon Fighter x47
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Tora & Poppi x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Primarina x40
Stage: New Donk City x40
Toon Zelda x38
Dragonite x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Tails x35
Leon Kennedy x35
Veteran: Corrin x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Slime x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25

24 and less:

Concept: Female Announcer x20
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x15
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x14
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Joker x10
Louie x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
[Rerate] King K. Rool x5
Yu Narakumi x5
T-Rex x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

A brand new top 7 led by Funky Kong. Sans overtook Agumon for 2nd. KOS-MOS went from 8th to 5th.
Sylux breaks 200 noms
Tom Nook and Cranky break 150 noms
Sakura and Masked Dedede FS break 100 noms
Ray, Gooey, Smash Run, and Scorpion break 50 noms
New additions: Rerating King K. Rool, Yu Narakumi, and T-Rex (all x5)

And a well done to Tsubasa Oribe for getting his first nominations in a month and a half.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Bomberman
Chance: 10%
Want: 60%

Black Shadow Prediction: 6.9%
Marth/Roy English voices Prediction: 20.35%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x4
9-Volt x1

 

[Wyoming]

Bomberman:

Chance - 1%
Simply cannot see this happening. Konami are an oddball company to deal with and there's more competition internally alone for a spot. They'd favour Snake or someone they originally made like Belmont rather than a character they purchased I think.

Want - 65%
If it weren't for Hudson Soft going under, we'd be asking when not if Bomberman will be in Smash. That's a darn shame.

Love me some Hero and the classics. I haven't played a recent title, but got enough love for the little guy to want him in Smash.

Black Shadow: 8.6%
Think a lot of people will think the majority want him as a mere beacon for Ganondorf's old move set. I cannot stress this is untrue for F-Zero fans.

Concept: Marth/Roy speaking English 11.2%
Certainly possible but them speaking Japanese is pretty much a staple nowadays.

Nominate Cranky Kong x3, Toon Zelda x2

 

[YoshiandToad]

Bomberman

Chance: 3%
KONAMIIIIIIII.

Want: 80%
The idea of using bombs to lay traps to restrict movement as Bomberman has great appeal. Bomberman was one of my most played games as a kid(specifically Atomic Bomberman) so he has a special place in my heart alongside Crash, Spyro, Tails and Rayman. I really wish Hudson hadn't gone under and I may have got my cute bomb ninja in.

Predictions:
Black Shadow: 7%

Concept Marth/Roy speaking English: 40%

Nomination:
Concept: Fire Emblem Summoner X 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Bomberman

Chance: 10%

Hard to say. Bomberman is in one of those complicated positions where he has a good amount going both for and against him. He's a popular and notable character from a franchise that has been around for a long time and has always had a close history with Nintendo consoles. There was also a recent title that started as a Switch exclusive, and he'd also be pretty unique. Wouldn't surprise me if he did well in the ballot either. As for the negatives...well, he's owned by Konami, for starters. No idea if that would work out. And even if it does there's still two other major contenders. Snake, despite being cut, is still a former veteran. And then Simon Belmont shares a lot of Bomberman's pros, minus the recent title but plus Castlevania literally being mentioned by Sakurai himself in that interview linked a couple of pages ago. I feel like either of them could beat him out, and I'm not expecting more than one and not quite expecting that so yeah. I wouldn't rule him out but it would definitely surprise me.

Want: 100%

Honestly I actually want all of the three Konami characters I mentioned for various reasons. Any of them getting in would be very satisfying, and while it will never happen I personally wouldn't complain at all if all three by some miracle got in.

In Bomerman's case a major third party with a long history with Nintendo is a big plus for me, but mainly I've just always really liked the little guy. He'd fit in absolutely perfectly and I'd be very interested to see how his moveset would turn out. Probably my most wanted third party outside of Banjo & Kazooie.

Black Shadow prediction: 6.19%
English speaking swordsmen prediction: 24.24%

Nominations: Tom Nook x5

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Bomberman

Chance 15%

Despite Super Bomberman R, he still has to compete with other Konami characters and then there's Konami themselves.

Want: 70%

He would be great. I am a huge fan of the series.

Predictions

English Marth & Roy: 20%

I'm not expecting it.

Black Shadow: 5%

F-Zero is dead

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Bomberman

Chance 13%

Timing, Komani, competition with fellow Konami brethren, and niche status. He's got a better position, but not too better.

Want: 100%

He's been long overdue.

Predictions

English Marth & Roy: 13%

Black Shadow: 3%

Nomination: Sans x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Bomberman:
Chance: 25%
Bomberman's been part of gaming's old guard for a very long time since the NES days, but he's still blowing enemies up in new games to this day. With Bomberman being one of the Switch's launch titles, I guess there is grounds that Konami might play nice and want to see another of their characters added to a pachinko machine added to Smash Bros.

Then again, Bomberman's competition lies in some of his fellow Konami stars; especially Snake and Simon Belmont. They might want Snake back because he was a fan favourite back in Brawl, or some new blood for another famous series with Simon.

Want: 50%
Mostly indifferent to Bomberman, but if he gets in, that would be pretty hype.

Eigo-Speaking Marth and Roy Prediction: 40%
Black Shadow prediction: 6.19%

Nomination: Yu Narukami X5

 

[Mario123311]

Bomberman
Chance: 26%
Want: 79%

I really would like him in but people really want Snake back, so... That and Konami is a bunch of jerkbags.

Nominate: Pac-Man World based moveset x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

*looks at top 7* cool, this should be a fun week

Bomberman

Chance: 62% - I think his chances are good, but far from a guarantee. as far as 3rd party characters go, he's pretty easily recognisable, has a history with Nintendo, and has been around a LONG time. he even had a game as a debut title for the Switch. so yeah, I'd say his chances are pretty good.

Want: 80% - I'm not a HUGE Bomberman fan, haven't played many of his games. but I do like him, and really want to pick up R once it goes down in price a little. He seems like he'd be a pretty perfect fit for Smash (and a much better Konami fit than a certain gravelly voiced soldier) he isn't my most wanted 3rd party character, but I'd say he's probably in my top 10 somewhere.

Predictions
Marth and Roy speak english: 25%
Black Shadow: 8%

Nominations
huh... Qbby's getting rated this week, so I'm not sure who to nominate now.

Sable Prince x1
Agumon x1
Neku Sakuraba x1
Starfy x1
Black Mage x1

 

[Koopaul]

I was wondering. I assume this game ends when Smash 5 releases. If we find out at E3 when the release date is, does that mean there will be a limit to how many new things can be nomintated based on the number of days counting to the release of Smash 5?

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

I was wondering. I assume this game ends when Smash 5 releases. If we find out at E3 when the release date is, does that mean there will be a limit to how many new things can be nomintated based on the number of days counting to the release of Smash 5?

well, it IS possible there'd be DLC post-release. so theoretically the game could continue after Smash even releases
but yeah, i'd say as we approach release it'd be a good idea to wind the thread down and limit the amount of new stuff

 

[ZealousGamer]

Bomberman

Chance 15%: He is possible but keep in mind that "Konami is Konami and Konami is the worst!"

Want 40%: Never played Bomberman games and moveset based all around near nothing but bombs seems kind of bland.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Train (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x

 

[MasterWarlord]

Bomberman Chance 10%: He's got a long history and is relevant to Nintendo in that history. I think people overestimate his popularity which I don't think he has very much of. I also think people overrate his iconicness, there's a massive gap between him and Megaman. Smash Bros speculation is the only time I hear this character's name come up.

Bomberman Want 8%: He deserves it somewhat so I would not be actively angry at his inclusion or anything, but I just find the character to be really bland. That and I still hate chibis.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 23.2%
Want: 45%
Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[Deleted member]

Bomberman

Chance: 8%
Bomberman R is great but he's still owned by Konami.

Want: 45%
Could be fun.

Nominating KOS-MOS x4, Excitebiker x1

Predictions: English Marth/Roy 27.4%, Black Shadow 2.31%

 

[Ghirahilda]

Bomberman
Chance: 10% (1 in 10)
Very Popular. It is the kind of character with the "iconic" appeal
Want: 100%
Why I wouldn't want?

Nomination: Octopath Traveller x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok I would post calcs but I forgot it’s Mothers Day, will post tomorrow.

Bomberman

19% Chance
70% WanT


Nominating Spyro x5

Day over, rate black Shadow and Marth /Roy speaking English and predict Lycanroc.

 

[Cosmic77]

Black Shadow

Chance: 1%
Sorry, but until F-Zero actually does something, I can't see the series getting any new characters.

Want: 30%
Not crazy about him or anything, but I wouldn't mind a second F-Zero rep.

Marth/Roy English VAs

Chance: 25%
Maybe? I don't really know. The new VAs for the veterans we got in Smash 4 were just so random. We got new voices for Ness, Lucario, Pit, Fox, and Falco.

It might be possible, but I don't think it's really a priority. If anything, they might record new Japanese voices and use them internationally just because Marth has been stuck with a Japanese voice for so long.

Want: Abstain
Don't particularly care either way.

Lycanroc prediction: 39.1%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

With Black Shadow, I 100% do not believe it will be happening due to F-Zero’s dormant status as a franchise. Even in the case scenario Sakurai decides on clones, the ones that will be chosen will likely be based on relevance and fan-popularity like Dixie Kong. Due to Black Shadow not having either of these benefits, I cannot see Black Shadow being considered as a clone ever for this Smash.

x5 Tom Nook

(BTW, I cannot wait for Lycanroc's day!)

 

[Deleted member]

Black Shadow
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%
F-Zero has been dead for over a decade, I seriously can't see him being considered. The only thing he's got going for him is dying fan support.
Personally, I have no love for F-Zero, and I feel that it shouldn't get another character because Captain Falcon just feels more like a Smash character at this point than anything.

English VAs for sword boiz
Chance: 45%
Want: 100%
Yuri Lowenthall is great as Marth, and while I haven't heard Roy's english voice, him still speaking japanese when every other FE character doesn't would stick out like a sore thumb.

Mimikyu x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Ganondorf's Moveset Dump Ground

Chance: 5%
Want: 10%

F-Zero is dead. There hasn't been a game since 2004, and that was only in Japan. Not to mention that the series was never that big to start with. Or the fact the Falcon's moveset is completely original. Realistically, F-Zero doesn't need more than a character and a stage or two.

The main reason most people want to see Black Shadow in the game is because Ganondorf is a Falcon clone and they want a repository to dump his current moveset so they can give him is kit from Hyrule Warriors.

I used to be big in that idea, but I've mellowed out a bit as I got used to the Falcondorf moveset. Dorf is probably the only character I'd be okay with a more massive moveset overhaul, but even still I have gotten used to a lot of his moves. As such, I don't need the Shadow anymore. Still can't say I want Falcondorf to be completely the same, but I don't need a 100% different Dorf anymore.

Localized Marth/Roy

Chance: 50%
Want: 65%

Marth (and Roy) have always been Japanese in Smash since the games were Japan-only releases. Marth finally got an English voice with STEAM as a spin-off, and then finally he managed an English voice in the next Fire Emblem game. Smash has changed voices before (some of which need to be changed back like that atrocious Fox claw-off-your-ears voice), so it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Then again, Bowser/DK have had animal noises since inception (which I kind of like...).

Honestly, I never really play Marth (Roy in Sm4sh is cool though) so I couldn't really be bothered one way or the other. Slight preference to localization just to keep them consistent with Ike and Robin.

Prediction for Lycanroc: 17.3%
Nom: Skyrim stuff x5

 

[Wyoming]

Black Shadow:

Chance: 2%
I admit it - it's not likely. Black Shadow is a popular character in Japan due to the anime which is essentially his only case for being in, and it's a very minor one. Not sure how he did on the ballot, but I doubt he's anywhere near the top. F-Zero is dormant and needs a new game. Pretty please, cherry on top?

Want: 90%
Love Black Shadow. Anyone that wants to use him as some sort of transplant for Ganondorf's current move set are wrong. While brute force is a part of his character, driving style, and machine, he is much more cunning than a brainless muscle of mass. He has dark magic, he has access to weapons of mass destruction, his machine is beefy and can take hits. I'd like a moveset that bases around his machine's stats and his abilities he shows off in the F-Zero universe.

Marth/Roy speaking English

Chance: 5%
Seems to be a Smash staple to keep them in their mother tongue - possibly a reference to their Japan-exclusive origins? It's possible they get their English voices, but why not do that for Smash 4? Nothing has changed in the last few years to push for this.

Want: Abstain
I don't really care either way. Their Japanese voices at least make sense unlike the weird B-movie props grunts and noises the DK Crew and Bowser produce.

Lycanroc: 34.5%
This will be feisty but people here will be on the Decidueye train till the end of time.

Nominate Toon Zelda x5

 

[fogbadge]

black shadow

chances: 5% and this point i dont think we're getting another f-zero character until they bring back the series

want: 0% nah

marth and roy english voices

chances: 20% for some reason i think that they may be reluctent to give them their english voices cause they always had their japanesse ones in smash

want: 50% i dont see why we shouldnt have them or indeed have both

 

[Opossum]

Double zeroes for Black Shadow. Now for the main event.


English Marth/Roy
Chance: 80%
This is purely up to the localization team, not Sakurai, mind you. It's not like DK's gorilla noises existing even in the Japanese version. And given the fact that both Marth and Roy have official English VAs now (Yuri Lowenthal and Ray Chase, respectively), there's no reason this shouldn't happen.

Marth has had more games with an English VA than he's had games in the Smash series. Code Name: S.T.E.A.M., Fates, Heroes, and Warriors all have Lowenthal voicing Marth. Roy has had his English voice since Heroes, where Ray Chase has provided his voice on three different occasions.

Want: 100%
I'll honestly be angry if this isn't fixed, silly as it sounds. "Tradition" be damned, as someone who really cares about Marth as a character, forgoing such an easy fix to bring him more in line with his series' current state would suck. He's a Fire Emblem character, not a Smash character. Give him the same respect as anyone else on the roster.

And Roy too, I guess.

Predicting a 28 for Lycanroc
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Black Shadow

Chance: 10%
Comes from a dead franchise that has hasn't had a nyu game for nearly 14 years, and only has made a few nyappearances via smash and some other games nya. Nyot sure how popular he is, but there's nyot much supporting the idea of F-Zero coming back nya.

Want: 50%
Never played any F-Zero games, but I'd have nyo objections for nyanother character nya. I mean, look at C. Falcon? Beautiful nya. Maybe he could nyadopt Ganondorfs moveset nya? That way Ganondorf gets a nyu moveset, but the moves will still live on nya. I'd be fine with that nya~


Marth/Roy Speaking English

Chance: 15%
I don't see it happening nya, there's little reason to do it other than making it possible for English speaking players to understand nya. But if that was so important, I think they would've nyalready done it for smash4 nya...

Want: 45%
I'll still play them regardless of what language they are speaking, which is why I think it would be a waste of effort to change something that I'm nyassuming most people wouldn't care nyabout nya.

Nyominaions
Mimikyu: x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Double zeroes for Black Shadow. Now for the main event.


English Marth/Roy
Chance: 80%
This is purely up to the localization team, not Sakurai, mind you. It's not like DK's gorilla noises existing even in the Japanese version. And given the fact that both Marth and Roy have official English VAs now (Yuri Lowenthal and Ray Chase, respectively), there's no reason this shouldn't happen.

Marth has had more games with an English VA than he's had games in the Smash series. Code Name: S.T.E.A.M., Fates, Heroes, and Warriors all have Lowenthal voicing Marth. Roy has had his English voice since Heroes, where Ray Chase has provided his voice on three different occasions.

Want: 100%
I'll honestly be angry if this isn't fixed, silly as it sounds. "Tradition" be damned, as someone who really cares about Marth as a character, forgoing such an easy fix to bring him more in line with his series' current state would suck. He's a Fire Emblem character, not a Smash character. Give him the same respect as anyone else on the roster.

And Roy too, I guess.

Predicting a 28 for Lycanroc
Nominating K. Rool x5

You've been waiting for this day for a long time haven't you?

 

[Wyoming]

Double zeroes for Black Shadow. Now for the main event.

These kinds of posts are why I no longer support Celica