Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[AlphaSSB]

Ken

Chance: 20% - Ryu losing one of his costumes means nothing, as the costume lost wasn't even based on Ken. What makes his chances high is that Ken's character as a whole is just a Ryu clone, and the fact that he was in Smash 4 as a trophy. If they got the rights to Ken there, then it's certainly possible that they'd retain him and use him as another filler clone.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of the idea.

Black Shadow

Chance: 10% - F-Zero may not be relevant, but I'm sure that he did somewhat decently in the ballot. May be enough to warrant getting in as a clone. I don't think Having three variations of Captain Falcon would be a problem, seeing as we have three variations of Mario, three variations of Link, and a whopping four variations of Marth.

Want: 50% - Since we're bound to have more filler clones, he'd be one that I wouldn't hate. Would be nice to see F-Zero get some love to, seeing at the series never received another character after Captain Falcon himself Smash 64.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Ken

Chance: 75%

I personally think he got in. Street Fighter's in from the start, there's a definite focus on echoes this time, and we now know that third party echoes are completely possible. At this point, Ken just makes sense. He's basically the original echo fighter, and pretty much an icon in general. I could easily see Sakurai wanting to add him in, it wouldn't be difficult. The one negative he has is that he probably didn't have a lot of requests, but I'm not sure he needs them.

Want: 50%

In general I prefer first party echoes, but the more I think about Ken specifically the more I'm ok with him. I have to admit, it'd be kind of neat to see the original echo fighter join the Smash roster.

Black Shadow

Chance: 15%

Possible but unlikely. While he's been tossed around as an echo here and there, I don't see him being one of the more popular ones. F-Zero also hasn't had a new entry in well over a decade. Unless he was more popular than I think and caught Sakurai's eye enough, I expect a number of other echoes to have priority.

Want: 75%

While not a huge priority for me, if I were picking echoes he'd probably be someone I'd choose. I like the franchise a lot and would be happy to see it get more. Black Shadow is a pretty cool character and he'd work well as a fighter.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[warpenguin55]

I'm abstaining from both.

Nominations:
Zeraora x3
Silvally x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Ken

Chance - 50% - While he gets props for being the OG echo fighter, that doesn't add up to much. He's not really going to break doors with his inclusion. He can make it in because it just makes too much sense, but there isn't much reason otherwise.

Want - 50% - As someone who has no care about echo fighers, I don't care at all. Take him or leave him.


Black Shadow

Chance - 2.25% - The main reason he was requested was to have Gannondorf's old move set. Instead, we are mostly getting updates to Gannondorf's move set. I don't see why he would be included otherwise. I think Samurai Goroh would be chosen instead.

Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[Koopaul]

Black Shadow
Chance: 45%
He's got a following. And unlike Goroh who would absolutely have to a be unique fighter, Balck Shadow could be an echo, greatly raising his chances.
Want: 100%
I'll take anything from F-Zero. The game needs more love.

Ken
Chance: 70%
After seeing Richter, my doubts about echoes for 3rd parties were shattered. He'd be one of the easiest and most obviois echoes yet.
Want: 1%
I never really cared for the character.

Nominations:
Barbara ×5

Yeah she doesn't have a chance in hell. But I'm curious to see how much the community would want her or like the idea of her.

 

[DivineWrath45]

Ken

Chance: 50%
Ken is the OG Echo Fighter so it makes sense for him to get in Smash. However, he might have a competition with Akuma, who I think is more likely because he has appeared in more crossover appearances than Ken and the fact that he can have his own moves such as the Raging Demon.

Want: 25%
I'm not that interested about Ken at all. I would rather have Akuma as an Echo of Ryu.

Abstain on Black Shadow. I haven't played any F-Zero games at all.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Technical issues will cause me to extend the day. Sorry for any inconvenience. Expect update tomorrow.

 

[ProfPeanut]

I'm frustrated that we won't even be halfway done with the August 8 Direct rerates by the time the new Direct forces yet another week of rerates.


Ken

Chance: 90%
Vergeben, easy Echo conditions, the fact that the barrier for echoes is so low - it's very possible that he was in as soon as echoes were decided upon. Only sheer apathy would see Ken overlooked while the likes of Richter and Chrom squeeze in.

Want: 50%
I couldn't care less. All I know about this guy is that he's a name that follows Ryu's. At least he's a video game character of decent popularity and easy echo potential.


Black Shadow

Chance: 25%
Unlike K. Rool, no fandom has kept Black Shadow afloat to survive F-Zero's fall from relevance. All he really has going for him is his obvious choice as a villain, something which I doubt Ultimate is focusing on in particular. Still, he's a decent echo fighter candidate, and F-Zero's been asking for a newcomer - any newcomer - for a long while.

Want: 20%
Frankly, we should still be seeing Samurai Goroh get in first. Black Shadow is the kind of Ganondorf clone that I don't think the game needs yet, although I do like the elegance in giving him the old Falcondorf moveset - once they actually give Ganondorf more fitting moves.


Prediction
Skull Kid: 75%
Black Knight:11%


Already nominated earlier.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ken
Chance: 55% - Ricken will once again serve as defence attorney here.
Want: 10%

Black Shadow
Chance: 2% - A character from a IP that’s been dead for 14 years and doesn’t have anywhere near the same popularity as King K Rool.

The idea of having him be an echo of Captain Falcon made very little sense in the first place giving that their abilities are far different. The only reason the idea is popular now is because back in SSB4 speculation days it was suggested as way to give Ganondorth a new unique move pool while still preserving his old one in a different character and the idea stuck. Ganondorth is already confirmed to have his movepool largely unchanged.
Want: 60%

nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Ken

Chance: 60% Considering all the leaks he's been in, it'd make sense for him to be in Smash.

Want: 20% Meh. I haven't played the Street Fighter games in years, so I'm not that interested. I don't remember much about him either.

Black Shadow

Chance: 30% I don't really know that much about the series he's from, but considering the IP hasn't made any games for a looong time I don't think he's getting in. Could be wrong though.

Want: 0% He just doesn't seem that exciting to me. Again, I haven't played the game he's in, so for all I know he could be a wonderful edition.

Nominations: Jin (Xenoblade) x5

 

[Aeon Lupin]

Ken

Chance - 85%

While he hasn't had the same amount of support as other echoes like Shadow or Dark Samus, Ken is the original echo, as well as a popular character in his own right. Sakurai even went out of his way to make Ryu even more faithful to his series, having Ken vs Ryu in stamina mode, and stage builder means you can essentially play Street Fighter in Ultimate. And it's that kind of cool thing I see Sakurai doing.

Want - 65%

I'd welcome Ken. I'd much rather another SF like Dictator or Sagat, but Ken is just the only feasible choice, and he's more expressive and fun than Ryu, so there's always that as a bonus.


Black Shadow


Chance - 55%

Some might think this is too high, but I'm just considering him as an echo. Ganondorf has been changed up quite a bit to the point he's barely a Captain Falcon clone. I can see him being added to satiate those who liked Falcondorf, but it's a longshot.

Want - 40%

I have not played any F-zero game, and don't care about Black Shadow, but I'd be happy for the few F-zero fans.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Ken Masters
Chance: 90%
With Richter opening the door for third party echoes Ken is looking like a very likely addition. Not only that but he's an iconic character and the original echo fighter.
Want: 50%
Not interested, but I wouldn't mind his inclusion. At least it makes sense for him to be an echo fighter.
Black Shadow
Chance: 40%
F-zero is never getting a unique newcomer so an echo is a good way of giving the series some love. He'd be a third Captain Falcon but that shouldn't be a problem considering we have four Marths.
Want: 80%
Why not? Who wouldn't want evil Batman in smash. He was also great in that F-zero anime.
Noms: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Couple of things

1. Front Page update should go live soon. I am putting the final fixes on it, so it will be looking nice soon. Once that is done, I will get all backlogued calcs done. Once that is done, I will contact someone for graphics for top ten of chance and want.

2. Normally I used to do graphic stuff by posting an image of each character each day, but I was thinking that for the front page, a banner of sorts would be cool. If anyone is interested in making a banner let me know.

3. Make sure your posts meet the requirements in Rule 2. I did skim but I saw a good few that I felt did not meet criteria.

4. When the direct day is announced, we shall add expectations for the direct onto the schedule as well, if anyone who did not post on the original time for speculation wants to chime in. The day after, satisfaction ratings if any are needed will occur.

Now my own rankings

Ken
90% Chance

Honestly every little piece of info that we get makes him seem super likely. Even ignoring Vergeben, Ken is arguably the character that makes the most sense to be an echo out of any character, even more than the ones we got. Ken was created to fight like Ryu, and has gotten his own nuances as the series has progressed. I feel these minor nuances, like flaming shoryuken and multi hitting tatsu would make him an easy and ideal echo fighter. Part of what makes me confident in his chances is the fact that Street Fighter is getting so much music, which makes me think it getting an echo makes so much sense. If it is getting so much content, why not?

80% Want

I like Ryu. I like Ken. But part of me wishes that we got Akuma as a Ryu echo instead. I feel that Akuma would be cooler since not only is he an antagonist, but he also represents that archetype of the fighting game final boss, showing how brutal they can be. I like Ken just fine, but damn each time I look at this I just wish that Akuma would be chosen instead.

Black Shadow

60% Chance

Let me be blunt. Black Shadow getting in the bottom 10 outside of joke characters is probably the biggest misrating that we did, even back in the day. Nowadays, I feel that Black Shadow makes so much sense to be either a Ganon or Falcon echo. As a Ganon echo, he can take the mantle of old falcondorf, especially given that Ganondorf learned that he has a sword on him. As for The Good Captain, it makes sense for him to be an echo of him too. Use darkness effects, maybe a bull charge move, and he is ready to go. F Zero being a dead series hurts him, but I feel that with K Rool being in, relevancy is not as important.

100% Want

In the F Zero anime, Black Shadow is voiced by Norio Wakamoto. His preformance in it is great. He would come back to do Black Shadow maybe if he got in. I honestly would love to hear Black Shadow's laugh or him in general.

Ninten x 5

Edit at 5:04 PM EDT: Front page for scores is done as of now, need to do more scores I have missed and update that part but it is in much better shape. Directory will be updated tonight.

 

[dezeray112]

Ken:
Chance: 75%
Want: 60%

Whilst I do strongly feel that Ken is most likely to be Ryu's echo fighter, I would preferably like to another Street Fighter character with a unique move set.

Black Shadow:
Chance: 60%
Want: 55%

Black Shadow is one of the iconic villains within the F-Zero franchise. At this point, I would assume he could be Captain Falcon's echo fighter, but then he could also have a potential to be a unique fighter.

 

[Erimir]

( TCT~Phantom Perhaps what could speed up calculations, given that we're not that far from launch, is to make a Google Doc and share access with some people on the board?)

Anyway...

Ken

Would almost certainly be an Echo, because you know... he's an Echo in Street Fighter. He is pretty much a perfect choice for an Echo for that reason. Give him his back throw variant (it's like Pikachu's backthrow!) and one or two of the other differences between them from SF. Being the OG Echo Fighter is kind of a boost for him. Richter shows they might boost 3rd party reps with Echoes, and Vergeben has said that Ken is in. Kind of annoying that we'd get Ken but not Protoman or Bass (or even Roll), IMO.

Ken chance: 74%
This is mostly due to Vergeben, but Richter's presence would make me consider him plausible already.
Ken want: 45%
He's fine, but I don't have any particular desire for him. I'd rather a Mega Man-based Echo if we're getting a Capcom Echo...

Black Shadow

Now, the main reason I'd want Black Shadow is so that Ganondorf could be more completely overhauled. Ganondorf needs at least one of his projectiles (Dead Man's Volley, Blazing Bats, generic fireballs, lightning), could get a teleportation and/or hovering move, so that would mean probably one to three new special moves. He could also possibly could get more sword-based standard moves (although he also uses a trident, so I'd also be ok with him just kinda whipping the sword or the trident out for different moves and using unarmed melee attacks or magic attacks for others). As it is, Ganondorf getting the sword for smashes is an improvement, but he's still a Falcon semi-clone with his specials and most of his standard attacks. While he might share a move or two (like Jigglypuff and Kirby or Samus and Captain Falcon), I'd like Ganondorf to be to the point where he's not even considered a semi-clone.

BUT... Black Shadow could create the conditions for a true Ganondorf moveset in the successor to SSBU. So that is an intriguing aspect. On the other hand, it would make more sense for him to accompany a Ganondorf overhaul than to precede it...

So to discuss Black Shadow more in and of himself... Blood Falcon would make perhaps more sense as a straight Falcon Echo, given that he's literally a clone. But Black Shadow is a more interesting inclusion and he still has some similarity to Falcon. There also isn't really a fully formed moveset for him anyway, so being an Echo isn't really a problem. However, he would make more sense with basically the Ganondorf Melee moveset than with a straight Echo moveset. They can even incorporate some aspects from F-Zero, like adding a magical aspect to his grab (this could be mainly an aesthetic difference).

But it seems to me that no iteration of Ganondorf could qualify as an Echo because he has different weight and movement speed and most of his attacks have differences in damage/knockback/frame data. So if Black Shadow was an Echo, he would need to move like Falcon and share almost all his moves, down to their damage/knockback/frame data. Does Black Shadow being as fast as Falcon fit? I'm not sure it does... But maybe.

Also, we know Ganondorf is already in, still as a Falcon semi-clone. Putting in Black Shadow means that we have two Falcon clones - one an Echo and the other a semi-clone. This probably hurts Black Shadow. But the presence of the Marth-Lucina-Roy-Chrom cluster certainly shows that this isn't out of the question. An Echo and a semi-clone with his own Echo are possible for one character, so an Echo and a more distinct semi-clone is possible.

Finally, it's worth pointing out that F-Zero seems to be a dead series and wasn't the biggest series to begin with. While it is large enough that it wouldn't be crazy for it to have two representatives (Kid Icarus is a smaller series, for example, although it has more recent relevance), it's not one that cries out for more representation. Captain Falcon is by far the most famous character, the second most notable character (Samurai Goroh) is already an AT, and there's not a lot of moveset potential since it's a fairly straightforward racing game.

Black Shadow chance: 3%
The basic problem here is that Falcon already has a semi-clone in the game and Samurai Goroh would perhaps be a stronger candidate (since he was in the original F-Zero). He makes sense as a way to throw a bone to F-Zero fans and Falcondorf fans simultaneously if you're planning a total Ganondorf overhaul. But we are obviously not getting that. But as an Echo, he wouldn't be a lot of work, and F-Zero is a series that has had only a single rep for a long time.

That and while Black Shadow could make sense as a clone, he makes less sense as an Echo. Being a slower, more powerful version of Captain Falcon would perhaps be more fitting. But it seems that Echoes can only have minute differences in size, and perhaps no differences in speed/weight.

Even with the additional Echoes, it doesn't seem likely we'll see Black Shadow this way.
Black Shadow want: 70%
If we hadn't seen Ganondorf already, I'd be rating him 100%. Not just for getting Canondorf, but because I do like the Falcondorf moveset! I have had Ganondorf as a secondary in every game he's been in. So Black Shadow getting a modified Melee/Brawl/SSB4 Ganondorf moveset would be cool, and I would play as Black Shadow. And he has a fun looking design. So I like Falcondorf and I like Ganondorf, but I want them to be separate fighters. But it's too late for that to happen in SSBU.

So my score this time is mostly about laying the groundwork for the final decloning of Ganondorf, overhauling him to make him more canon accurate. I mean... seeing K Rool's moveset only makes it that much more obvious how Ganondorf has been locked into Falcon's moveset by a chance decision for Melee. There's no way that they'd make him the way he is if he had been a newcomer for Brawl, Smash 4 or SSBU. It seems like they might finally give Ganondorf new specials in the next game, given how they've been gradually decloning him since Melee, and maybe Black Shadow isn't necessary for Ganondorf to eventually be more accurate. But since I do like the Falcondorf moveset, I'd like it to stick around. But technically speaking, that moveset is not an Echo moveset.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

But the time difference would honestly seem negligible, I doubt you'd even have time to make another echo if you're still going out in the effort to give his own model and unique voice clips, it'd literally just be a few more unique animations for taunts and stuff and a tiny bit of extra programming so he has his own records. It just seems weird.

If it takes that much time to make him as an alternate costume, then I don't want him in that way, either. I just don't care enough about him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

( TCT~Phantom Perhaps what could speed up calculations, given that we're not that far from launch, is to make a Google Doc and share access with some people on the board?)

Anyway...

Ken

Would almost certainly be an Echo, because you know... he's an Echo in Street Fighter. He is pretty much a perfect choice for an Echo for that reason. Give him his back throw variant (it's like Pikachu's backthrow!) and one or two of the other differences between them from SF. Being the OG Echo Fighter is kind of a boost for him. Richter shows they might boost 3rd party reps with Echoes, and Vergeben has said that Ken is in. Kind of annoying that we'd get Ken but not Protoman or Bass (or even Roll), IMO.

Ken chance: 74%
This is mostly due to Vergeben, but Richter's presence would make me consider him plausible already.
Ken want: 45%
He's fine, but I don't have any particular desire for him. I'd rather a Mega Man-based Echo if we're getting a Capcom Echo...

Black Shadow

Now, the main reason I'd want Black Shadow is so that Ganondorf could be more completely overhauled. Ganondorf needs at least one of his projectiles (Dead Man's Volley, Blazing Bats, generic fireballs, lightning), could get a teleportation and/or hovering move, so that would mean probably one to three new special moves. He could also possibly could get more sword-based standard moves (although he also uses a trident, so I'd also be ok with him just kinda whipping the sword or the trident out for different moves and using unarmed melee attacks or magic attacks for others). As it is, Ganondorf getting the sword for smashes is an improvement, but he's still a Falcon semi-clone with his specials and most of his standard attacks. While he might share a move or two (like Jigglypuff and Kirby or Samus and Captain Falcon), I'd like Ganondorf to be to the point where he's not even considered a semi-clone.

BUT... Black Shadow could create the conditions for a true Ganondorf moveset in the successor to SSBU. So that is an intriguing aspect. On the other hand, it would make more sense for him to accompany a Ganondorf overhaul than to precede it...

So to discuss Black Shadow more in and of himself... Blood Falcon would make perhaps more sense as a straight Falcon Echo, given that he's literally a clone. But Black Shadow is a more interesting inclusion and he still has some similarity to Falcon. There also isn't really a fully formed moveset for him anyway, so being an Echo isn't really a problem. However, he would make more sense with basically the Ganondorf Melee moveset than with a straight Echo moveset. They can even incorporate some aspects from F-Zero, like adding a magical aspect to his grab (this could be mainly an aesthetic difference).

But it seems to me that no iteration of Ganondorf could qualify as an Echo because he has different weight and movement speed and most of his attacks have differences in damage/knockback/frame data. So if Black Shadow was an Echo, he would need to move like Falcon and share almost all his moves, down to their damage/knockback/frame data. Does Black Shadow being as fast as Falcon fit? I'm not sure it does... But maybe.

Also, we know Ganondorf is already in, still as a Falcon semi-clone. Putting in Black Shadow means that we have two Falcon clones - one an Echo and the other a semi-clone. This probably hurts Black Shadow. But the presence of the Marth-Lucina-Roy-Chrom cluster certainly shows that this isn't out of the question. An Echo and a semi-clone with his own Echo are possible for one character, so an Echo and a more distinct semi-clone is possible.

Finally, it's worth pointing out that F-Zero seems to be a dead series and wasn't the biggest series to begin with. While it is large enough that it wouldn't be crazy for it to have two representatives (Kid Icarus is a smaller series, for example, although it has more recent relevance), it's not one that cries out for more representation. Captain Falcon is by far the most famous character, the second most notable character (Samurai Goroh) is already an AT, and there's not a lot of moveset potential since it's a fairly straightforward racing game.

Black Shadow chance: 3%
The basic problem here is that Falcon already has a semi-clone in the game and Samurai Goroh would perhaps be a stronger candidate (since he was in the original F-Zero). He makes sense as a way to throw a bone to F-Zero fans and Falcondorf fans simultaneously if you're planning a total Ganondorf overhaul. But we are obviously not getting that. But as an Echo, he wouldn't be a lot of work, and F-Zero is a series that has had only a single rep for a long time.

That and while Black Shadow could make sense as a clone, he makes less sense as an Echo. Being a slower, more powerful version of Captain Falcon would perhaps be more fitting. But it seems that Echoes can only have minute differences in size, and perhaps no differences in speed/weight.

Even with the additional Echoes, it doesn't seem likely we'll see Black Shadow this way.
Black Shadow want: 70%
If we hadn't seen Ganondorf already, I'd be rating him 100%. Not just for getting Canondorf, but because I do like the Falcondorf moveset! I have had Ganondorf as a secondary in every game he's been in. So Black Shadow getting a modified Melee/Brawl/SSB4 Ganondorf moveset would be cool, and I would play as Black Shadow. And he has a fun looking design. So I like Falcondorf and I like Ganondorf, but I want them to be separate fighters. But it's too late for that to happen in SSBU.

So my score this time is mostly about laying the groundwork for the final decloning of Ganondorf, overhauling him to make him more canon accurate. I mean... seeing K Rool's moveset only makes it that much more obvious how Ganondorf has been locked into Falcon's moveset by a chance decision for Melee. There's no way that they'd make him the way he is if he had been a newcomer for Brawl, Smash 4 or SSBU. It seems like they might finally give Ganondorf new specials in the next game, given how they've been gradually decloning him since Melee, and maybe Black Shadow isn't necessary for Ganondorf to eventually be more accurate. But since I do like the Falcondorf moveset, I'd like it to stick around. But technically speaking, that moveset is not an Echo moveset.

It would actually make more sense if Black Shadow was faster than Falcon. The Black Bull is iirc the fastest machine in F-Zero canon.

 

[P.Kat]

Ken

Chance 70%
If you're looking for the original echo look no further than Ken. He's Literally a copy of Ryu's fighting style since they trained together (with exceptions to his Shoryuken, and his Tatsumaki being a bit different). So it makes sense that he'd become an echo fighter.
Want 60%
Would be higher but, if we get another Street Fighter character, I'd prefer someone like Chun-Li. Or Sakurai could give us a surprise curveball by giving us an echo fighter like Sakura.

Black Shadow

Chance 5%
Abstain
Want 0%
If Black Shadow got into the game, I feel he'll be a slower heavier Capt. Falcon, or a slightly larger Ganondorf with his Smash 4 moveset. Either way, slow powerful/heavyweight characters don't fit my fast speedy playstyle. So I don't see myself playing with him even if he makes it into ultimate.

Nomination: Amaterasu x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Black Shadow:
Chance: 3.95%
F-Zero as a franchise has been dead for a long time. With no new sign of an F-Zero game, there's little chance we'll see any major new F-Zero content outside of what we've got already.

Want: 15%
I'm willing to entertain the idea of Black Shadow, but it's not something I'd really want. I'd rather something like a new F-Zero game that can show off some of his supposed 'Master of Evil' powers that never really show up outside of F-Zero races. Dream hope is an F-Zero beat-em-up by the Yakuza devs even though I need to actually play Yakuza...

I'd also prefer that if we were to get a second F-Zero character they'd be a unique fighter, rather than a clone of Captain Falcon or Ganondorf (Only reason I included him here is because he all know Ganondorf was C. Falcon's clone, but now they've brought him into a more unique character)
Ken:
Chance: 75%
He is the original clone of fighting games, and with Richter being proof third-party series can have second characters, there should be no problem to try and add in Ken if you ask me. All you'd need to do is add some fire effects to the Shoryuken and Tatsumaki, make sure we don't get the Kenface from Street Fighter V, and they're good to go.
Want: 70%

If there were to be an Echo Fighter for Ryu, personally I'd go with Akuma, but Ken would be fine with me. More the merrier if you ask me.

 

[Misery Brick]

Ken
Chances: 85%
Ken Masters is one of the most iconic fighting game characters as he's the P2 character to Ryu, even dating back to the very first Street Fighter. He became the basis for fighting game clones and helped perpetuate the "shoto" archetype in major fighting game series.
Also, with the new reasoning behind Echo Fighters and the possibility they've been planned instead of being the "dessert" at the end of development, makes me certainly believe that the Smash team could've gotten the "OK" and copyright from Capcom in order to put him into the game like they did with Richter Belmont.
I think he's a character that seems extremely likely for this game, however I think the only obstacle he has is if Sakurai doesn't seem him worth it when it comes to introducing a new character as opposed to someone like Chun Li. However, that seems very slim in that regard.
So I'd definitely expect to see Ryu's best friend and partner show up in this next iteration of Smash.

Want: 90%
(I just want to preface this with the fact that this is the character I gave the highest percentage to.) I always preferred Ken to Ryu in classic Capcom fighting games, so I'd definitely be ecstatic if he got in this game. Especially if he has the different nuances and moves from the previous entries.

Black Shadow
Chance: 29%
Black Shadow is one of the more popularly discussed characters when it comes to possible newcomers for F-ZERO.
However, given that Ganondorf is relatively still the same character he was back in Smash 4 and previous iterations outside of Smash attacks, I don't see it happening.
There is a possibility that Sakurai could figure out how to implement him as a new character and give him a completely unique moveset.
I personally don't see it happening, especially given that he probably wasn't voted for during the ballot. Therefore not receiving a lot of fanfare for his inclusion. I do think that if we do get a new F-ZERO character, it'll be along the lines of someone like Jody Summers, sadly not the bull though.

Want: 60%
I would love if F-ZERO actually got a new character for the series, however I'd prefer if they came alongside a unique moveset as opposed to an echo for a already established character. So while I'm not too keen on a clone, I'd love for him to get in as a completely unique character.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x5

 

[Pizza Robo]

Ken
Chance 50%
He is very popular plus he work as an Echo Fighter for Ryu
Want 45%
While there other Street Fighter characters i want to be playable in Smash I'm totally with Ken

Black Shadow
Chance 30%
Most likely as an Echo Fighter of Captain Falcon or Ganondorf if he gets in

Want 100%
I do want Black Shadow to be playable plus we need more F-Zero Characters and Villains

Nominations
WarioWare 2nd Character Rep x2
F-Zero 2nd Character Rep x2

 

[CHAMPIONX9]

Time to rate stuff.
Ken
Want 0% He would be "cool" as any other new face would be, but there are many other echoes which I feel would add far more to the game. Besides he is already able to fight Ryu in his games. There are new opportunities for echoes that could be explored. Overall it would be level 10 boring compared with what else is possible.

Chance:
10%
Just because it can be done, doesn't mean it will. People consistently overate echos as more likely just because they are low effort. I wont say he is likely because I don't know if that is what Sakurai wants to put his dev time to.

Blackshadow
Want -5% (Changed from 10% because I thought about Ganondorf)

Chance 5% (Changed from 11% because of Ganondorf)
I guess you could argue that the villains theme gives him a bigger chance, but Ness is also missing a villain. I guess he would be an easy villain, but it's not clear if Sakurai has a captain falcon echo in his sights because of Ganondorf. It would be a fire emblem situation with clone/echo combinations, so I guess it's both a positive and a negative.
POSTIVE: Less time testing out balance. I could see Sakurai doing it since I don't think he has a problem with multiple clones given how many we've received throughout the years.
NEGATIVE: Less unique fighters. Unclear how the concept of Black Shadow would differ from Ganondorf.
I think I'll pass until I hear some gameplay merits.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now, time for Black Knight and Skull Kid.

Now first, let me just say this. Part of the reason I paired these two together is I am extremely confident in them right now.

Black Knight

99% Chance

Honestly every bit of evidence makes me think this guy is near a lock. First, let us talk about the earliest piece of evidence we can have for him: the Mii Costume. Getting a Mii costume as DLC was... interesting. While Black Knight is the most popular Fire Emblem villain across the fanbase, him getting a costume does seem weird. Having a costume built from entirely new assets for a character that I did not feel was that popular in the grand scheme of things was... odd. However, as time has gone by, he is one of the only three mii costumes for a first party character whose roll we still do not know. The only other two to share this distinction are Majora/Skull Kid and Isabelle.

Next, the reveal of echos did give Black Knight a bit more life. Fire Emblem getting an older character as a newcomer is just never going to happen unless a remake occurs. The initial reveal of echos, however, did not essentially help the Black Knight much. While there was evidence that there would be a good number of echos given how early they introduced the idea, we still did not know much. We only knew we got one more, they did not seem super plentiful.

Then the 8/8 direct showed up. And several little details helped play into the Black Knight's favor. First, there is a clear theme for villains and/or a story mode this game. We have gotten two unique villains and one echo villain. It is clear that they seek to fix the criticism that there are not enough villains. Black Knight, as the ideal fire emblem villain, is helped by this. Next, the reveal of three new echos shows us that there are going to be a good number of echos in this game. As such, worries of there not being enough echo spots were quelled. Finally, Chrom was selected as a Roy echo, despite speculation heavilly suggesting the idea of an Ike echo for Chrom. This frees up Ike's echo spot for the black knight.

However, some analysis after the direct shows that the Black Knight looking figure in Castle Siege was updated to not look like the black knight. While this figure has never been confirmed to be the black knight, the resemblence is uncanny, and it far resembles the black knight more than a generic general. Removing such a small detail is... weird. Why would they choose to change such a small detail in the stage? Honestly with the Mii Costume, it does make things a bit more suspicious.

Time to reiterate some of my thoughts on the Black Knight as an ike echo from the Black Knight Thread.

Honestly I feel the Chrom/Dark Samus treatment is what I think should be ideal for echos. They may share some basic functionality and gameplan, but they have these small nuances that make them have their own little spin. I wish they gave Lucina Awakening Aether as well, it would have been so much better for this idea. Regardless of that, we have to just consider a few questions when thinking of a Black Knight echo.

First, does it make sense for him to be based off of Ike? Lorewise, yes. Both were taught by Greil/Gawain. Both share the same sword fighting style. They even share twin legendary swords. While there might need to be one or two fixes (namely a Warp Powder Up B and maybe an Eruption tweek), I feel the majority of the moveset makes sense. Perhaps the biggest problem people have is a big guy like Zelgius being as mobile as Ike. To be blunt, Ike already has poor mobility. His run speed is average at best, his jump height and walk speed are poor, and his air speed is only decent. Zelgius has proven he is faster than assumed, so I would say that him having Ike's stats, with maybe a few small tweeks, would be ideal. I have heard some people think that the armor might be a bit too bulky, but part of that is due to the thigh plates being so large. The Mii Costume does give enough of an idea of an adjusted armor.

Secondly, is there enough demand that would allow the Black Knight to get in? I feel that there are a few things that we can use as evidence to lead up to a yes. Firstly, there clearly is some effort in this game to represent antagonists. Black Knight, being the most popular fire emblem antagonist, helps fill the niche of a Fire Emblem villain. While people might be worried about Fire Emblem getting more content, I feel that with the inclusion of Chrom, Sakurai is sticking to his thoughts of echos as bonuses to please people. While Fire Emblem is probably not getting a unique newcomer for the base game (TH getting a DLC character, that I can see), it already has gotten an echo, and there clearly is something up with the Black Knight being AWOL on Castle Siege. Secondly, Black Knight has to have had some demand of sorts to get a DLC costume, especially one that uses new assets. There was no easy place to pull assets for that costume from. Either he has fan demand, or Sakurai is a fan of the character enough to give him a DLC mii costume with new assets. These combinations of factors lead me to believe that yes, he has enough demand to make it in.

Finally, does it make sense for the Black Knight to appear as a character in general? For this smash, I would say relevancy is not an issue, as it is trumped by popularity. While Chrom still gets pushed from time to time since Awakening is one of the most important FE games, he was not exactly front and center for the franchise. Dark Samus is dead, so unless she cheats death like Ridley, she is not appearing in another Metroid game. Richter was clearly chosen due to his popularity in Japan among Castlevania fans. Also don't diss on Daisy. I am not a fan of her, but she has mad casual appeal. I can understand stating that Dixie might have more demand for Smash than Daisy, but I am pretty sue they know more casual fans would be elated by Daisy being in. With these four being chosen, I feel it is obvious that echos are chosen for their popularity, rather than their relevancy. As addressed in my second point, I feel Black Knight fits for that.

Overall, I am very confident in the Black Knight will appear in this game as Ike's echo. Honestly the only thing that is holding me back from giving him a 100% is that I might be wrong. But I am very very confident that he will be in the game.


100% Want

A good friend of mine is a diehard fan of the Tellius games. I know that she would be ecstatic if the Black Knight was in. I personally want the guy because he ticks a few of my flags. I always have been a sucker for Darth Vader expies of sorts, hence why I am such a huge fan of Golbez in FF4. Black Knight fits this trope so well, and I love him for that. Secondly, I love his character in the games. He is a stern soldier, seeking only to serve his master and perfect the art of swordsmanship. I love his voice in Heroes, he sounds so great and I would love to hear him go "Fool" or "Will you survive?". Finally, I love villains, having an extra villain on the roster would be awesome. I did abstain from ratings for Porky and Masked Man, but they both would have gotten high scores in want. I just really want this guy.

Skull Kid

95% Chance

That 5% is that somehow he is a boss instead which in my opinion makes little sense. Honestly the moon assist, his popularity, and the need for a new Zelda rep does spell well for him. Honestly the biggest tell for me is the fact that the moon is an assist but he is not in there. Why would Skull Kid not drop the moon for the assist? Why would he be seperate? Every little bit of info helps him imo.

100% Want

Cool character, villain, fan of the game he is in, know people who would like him, deja vu? Yes I am a sucker for villains. Skull Kid/Majora is my favorite one time Zelda villain because he is so distinct from every other one time Zelda Villain. He is so different from each other one. Zant despite his personality is essentially an Agahim expy. While Ghirahim is less of an Agahim expy due to having more personality and being more recurring, getting replaced by Demise makes him less interesting. Skull Kid is great due to how different he is from every other Zelda villain. Also his design is great, easily the best designed Zelda villain.

Nominating Ninten x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Ken/Black Shadow pre-Black Knight/Skull Kid

Ninten x353
Jin Kazama x350
Terry Bogard x337
Django (Boktai) x300
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x300
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x295
Rowlet x270
Gardevoir x270

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x257
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x240
Nathan Drake x235
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x217

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Amaterasu x188
No More Stages x183
Papyrus x180
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x180
Louie x160
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Rick/Coo/Kine x159
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x141
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x140
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x135
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Item: Beast Ball x132
Barbara the Bat x127
2B x126
Klonoa x117
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Zeraora (Pokemon) x106
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Edelgard x100
Dovahkiin x100
Reimu Hakurei x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Guzma (Pokémon) x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Frank West x70
9-Volt x67
Chorus Kids x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Black Knight as a boss character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Silvally x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Adeleine x34
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25

Under 25

Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x10
Leo (Fire Emblem) x10
Big Boss x10
Concept: DLC character pass x10
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x2
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1

Jin Kazama hops over Terry Bogard and lands in second place. Django and Reinhardt’s trophy both break 300 noms. Gardevoir joins the top 7, tying with Rowlet for seventh place. (The top 7 is getting really competitive! Fixed days can’t end soon enough)

Today’s new nominees are Jin from Xenoblade with 5 nominations and concepts for a WarioWare newcomer and an F-Zero newcomer, each with 2 nominations.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Black Knight comin' in to RTC like

Chance: 60%
Black Knight seems to be in an interesting situation. He's popular enough to warrant getting a Mii Costume, and is one of FE's most recognisable villains thanks to his amazing design. Other than that, for his moveset they could definitely draw on him to being an Echo of Ike with a few minor changes like Warp Powder or something. It's likely he'd be playable if you ask me, if we're seeing some kind of 'Heroes vs Villains' dynamic.

Want: 70%
Personally I think we're good with Fire Emblem when it comes to newcomers or any more sword fighters, but if they're an Echo Fighter then I'd have no objection. Burger King would be a great addition to completely round off Fire Emblem's diverse cast.

Skull Kid: 85%
There's plenty of evidence in favour of Skull Kid having a much more significant role in this game. (hopefully as a playable fighter) The Moon replacing his affecting everyone Assist Trophy, the return of Young Link which would pair extremely well for a trailer and he has a lot of popularity amongst the Zelda fanbase. They might have to be a bit creative for some parts of his moveset, but I think they can definitely make Skull Kid a playable fighter at this point.

Want: 100%
At first I wasn't exactly certain, but Skull Kid's definitely amongst one of my most wanted. Majora's Mask was a really fun game and Skull Kid would be a great inclusion to show there's more to the series than just the wielders of the Triforce. I think we're due for a Zelda newcomer, and Skull Kid is definitely at the top of my list when it comes to unique characters to bring to Smash.

 

[Cetus]

Black Knight
Chance-5%
I honestly just do not see him. I think we're sort of done with Fire Emblem characters for now tbh.

Want-0%
I don't particularly care for him.

Skull Kid-
Chance-45%
Lower than most but I don't really expect him in this game, but eh... There's a lot supporting it I guess so I dunno.

Want-5%
I'd rather another Zelda newcomer and Skull Kid's just not really interesting to me.

 

[Cabbagehead]

Black Knight

Chance: 95%
Want: 90%

Sakurai seems to have a spot in his heart for the Black Knight. Between the trophy, theme song, sticker, and Castle Siege cameo in Brawl, as well as the other trophy and out-of-the-blue Mii Costume in Smash 4, Black Knight has gotten the most content out of any Fire Emblem villain, hands down. Now that the pseudo-Black Knight cameo in the background of Castle Siege has been replaced by a person that definitely isn't Black Knight, things are looking up for old BK. Sure, one could argue that three Fire Emblem Echoes would be excessive, and while I might be inclined to agree, that doesn't sway the fact that the planets seem to be lining up for such a thing to happen.

Black Knight, thanks to Brawl, was one of the only FE characters I actually knew before getting into the FE series itself. As an outsider looking in, the fact that he looked like Nintendo's answer to Darth Vader was really cool to me. I didn't know his role in his home series. All I knew was that he was a bad guy, and he looked awesome. It's no wonder he resonated with me so much, as I was a HUGE Star Wars fan as a child. As a beside, to give you an idea of how much I liked Black Knight, when I made a prediction roster for the next Smash game before the Wii U had even been released, I added Black Knight, still having no idea what Fire Emblem was even about. I just liked the idea of him that much.

Now, as an adult who understands Fire Emblem a bit better, Black Knight is one of my favorite units to use in Heroes, and the idea of owning a BK amiibo and being able to play as him in Smash makes me feel giddy, haha.

Skull Kid
Chance: 80%
Want: 90%

Two facts about The Legend of Zelda:
1) With installments such as A Link to the Past, Ocarina of Time, and Breath of the Wild, the franchise is one of Nintendo's most prolific.
2) Despite the vast number of unforgettable characters which could be utilized as playable characters, this heavy-hitter of a franchise is represented in Smash with three Links, two Zeldas, and Captain Falcondorf (now featuring sword). One could say that the Zelda representation could use some improvements.

Say what you will about how Skull Kid is a one-off character, or how Majora's Mask didn't sell that well (compared to other installments in the series). Undoubtedly, the character of Skull Kid adorned with Majora's Mask is one of the most iconic villains in gaming history. The fact that this one-off character has managed to spawn fan art, merchandise, and relevance the likes of which any other Zelda one-off could only hope to pray for is a testament to his staying power, even nineteen long years later.

And now that the Moon has possibly replaced Skull Kid's Assist Trophy position, the fate of this classic villain is up in the air. Some like to bounce the idea of Skull Kid as a boss, but considering the scale (size-wise) of Smash bosses thus far, I just don't see it happening. And the game completely erasing Skull Kid a la Jill/Ray/Isaac/Helirin is absurd. We're talking about a fan-favorite Zelda villain, after all, not an obscure character from a dead franchise.

I'm optimistic about Skull Kid's odds. Sure, he's not as much of a shoo-in as I thought Dark Samus was, but he still has a lot going for him. And I'm certain that Sakurai has gotten a significant amount of feedback begging him to improve the Zelda part of the roster. Skull Kid would certainly contribute to that goal.

As far as want, well, I grew up playing Majora's Mask at my friend's house all the time, so Skull Kid is pretty nostalgic. Seeing him make the jump to playable in my favorite game series would absolutely be one of the coolest things this game could do. Seriously. Few would excite me like Skull Kid would.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Skull Kid

Chance: 80%
All signs point to him being in. The most important of which is the Moon AT, which wouldn’t exist on its own if Skull Kid weren’t in the game in another capacity. Skull Kid’s AT can be ruled out, as it doesn’t serve any function other things don’t serve and frankly it was a terrible AT. Skull Kid is also hugely iconic and very popular with both casual and hardcore audiences. The only reason this score isn’t in the 90s is because of the suggestion that he could be a boss, and frankly it makes sense.

Want: 100%

Black Knight

Let me get want out of the way, it’s 100%. I love Black Knight as a character, as a villain and as a character design, and I’d love to see him in Smash. That having been said...

Chance: 6%
Like, what the ****? Am I living in the same reality as the rest of you? Black Knight had zero support by the time of the ballot. Hell, he only gained traction after August 8th, late much? You can point at his Fire Emblem popularity all you want, but that’s definitely not enough (it certainly wasn’t enough for Lyn).

As for the suggestion that he could be an Echo of Ike, that’s nonsense. Body shapes really don’t match up, and it would be poor representation of his character if they were changed. It’s also not easy to envision him using most of Ike’s moves. I think if he appears in Ultimate it’ll be as a boss or maybe an AT.

Nominations: NintenX5 (man, I gotta keep him out of Jin and Terry’s way for 6 days. Will I make it?)

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Black Knight
Chance: 10%
I think his chances are really exaggerated. Unless Sakurai really wants a villain from the series and doesn't want to use Robin as Grima, I can't imagine yet another FE character getting in, even as an echo. Plus, I don't think people are really considering how BK as an echo would actually work, because I can't really see it. On the ground, maybe, but watching him jump around and do Ike's aerial attacks would look really awkward.

Want: 10%
I love FE. You'll never hear "too many FE characters" from me. But, like Chrom, BK is not one I want to see get in. It's already just a bunch of dudes with swords, we really don't need another one.

Skull kid
Chance: 15%
Like BK above, I think his chances are greatly exaggerated. There were likely other reasons for (possibly) replacing his assist trophy with the moon. I could see him as a boss, but I highly doubt he'll be playable.

Want: 30%
It's odd. In pre-Smash 4, he was one of my higher wants. What happened? Honestly, I don't know. I just kind of lost interest in the idea of a playable Skull Kid in Smash. I still wouldn't be against it, but it wouldn't excite me.

 

[Sari]

Black Knight

Chance: 55%
He had a mii costume in SSB4 and IIRC appeared in one or two leaks. His removal as a background character in Castle Siege also seems fishy.

Want: 40%
Could be interesting and if FE were to get a villain character he'd probably be the best candidate. That being said, if FE were to get another echo I'd prefer it be Celica.

-----

Skull Kid

Chance: 95%
Insanely popular character from one of the series' most popular games, and the moon being an assist trophy seems really suspicious. I'm also one of the people that believes the chairs in the last Direct were referencing Tatl and Tael. I feel that he'll be revealed in the upcoming Direct.

Want: 95%
Majora's Mask has always been my favorite Zelda after Wind Waker. That being said, I'll be perfectly honest and say I wasn't really too drawn to Skull Kid being in Smash at first. The first time he appeared on RTC I think I gave him a 40% while basically saying "I'll be glad if he gets in though I'm not really demanding him." Then overtime my interest for him grew because:

• I realized that the Zelda series is severely lacking characters with unique movesets and hasn't had a new one since Melee. Skull Kid would be great for this.
• Smash has many villains but it's lacking a childish one along the lines of say Porky. Again Skull Kid would be great for this role.
• I've been watching videos of Skull Kid in Hyrule Warriors (planning to get it once I get a Switch) and it made me really interested in seeing him in Smash (specifically how he uses Tatl and Tael in combat).

Overall he's probably my most wanted Zelda newcomer along with Tetra.

-----

Chance predictions

Banjo: 61.38%
Geno: 83.49%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[EarlTamm]

I have never been to good at saying why I support a character or why there odd's are good, especially when it's already been said, but here I go.

Black Knight
Chance: 75%
Lot of evidence in his favor. From his previous presence in Smash and his lack of appearance in Castle Siege, to the Mii costume, to the general increase of villains, a lot is in his favor.
Want: 70%
I have never played anything with him in it, but playing as what is basically a medieval Darth Vader would make me all kinds off happy.
Skull Kid
Chance: Undecided
I have mixed feelings when it comes to his chances. I mean, I would love him in, but something just irk's me and I can't tell what.
Want: 80%
Like I said, I would love him in. A Zelda rep that is not apart of the triforce trio, a new villain, some good moveset potential, it would be rather cool.

 

[NintenRob]

I'm gonna give two posts. I want Skull Kid to have his very own dedicated spot.


So without further adieu, SKULL KID
Chance 75%
This is the highest I'm willing to go for any character sans Isabelle (and that's only because she could get in as either echo or unique), this is basically me giving a 100%

Skull Kid pretty much has EVERYTHING in his favour.
There's a lot of demand for a new Zelda character
Other popular Zelda characters have been deconfirmed
Impa would likely just be an echo making her a non issue.
I consider every stage known making even less competition
Great Bay has been very prominent in promotion (so was Kongo Falls, *cough*KROOL*cough*)
Majora's Mask released in the perfect timing, and Hyrule Warriors Legends is just icing on the cake
He's been seen winning big polls in the past
We haven't seen Young Links final smash yet, Fierce Deity would work well in a tie in
Sakurai acknowledged him a few times last game. His assist trophy was the FIRST assist trophy revealed last time. Sakurai chose a Majora's Mask themed picture as a winner of the picture contest starring Skull Kid. And of course the Majora's Mask Mii costume, specifically pointing out as Skull Kid. The trophies were even items in Smash Toyr


And of course the big one
FURNITURE!!!
just kidding

obviously I'm talking about the MOON
Not only has the Skull Kid assist trophy no where to be seen. But it has seemingly been replaced by the moon. Regardless of if he's playable or not, I'm convinced he's no longer an assist trophy, I'm convinced he wouldn't be a boss because that doesn't make sense to me. And given how prominent he was last time, I would be shocked if he's just gone entirely. That to me means one thing

MY PRECIOUS SKULL KID IS GOING TO BE PLAYABLE!!!!! YAHOO!!!

Want: 100%
I've been a vocal supporter of Skull Kid since before people started to think it would happen. But I never gave up hope, I never backed down, I kept him on my prediction roster against the odds, I always stuck to my gut, never faltering. Majora's Mask is one of my favourite games ever and I pray that all this leads to nothing.

TBC

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Skull Kid want: 100%

Shooting needles from his flute, summoning marionettes, teleporting/going invisible, swinging a lantern (could work like swinging Link's lantern in TP), distractions with two fairies, etc.

Black Knight want: 1%

He looks really cool, and he could use some of Ike's assets, which would save time on his development. We don't have any fire emblem villains yet, either. He might also increase the chances of getting Hector, since he would also be an armored heavy-hitter, but with an axe.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[Klimax]

Black Knight
Chance: 0%
He's not popular enough and we already have one newcomer for Fire Emblem, I just don't see it happening.

Want: 30%
I don't know a lot about him but it seems that he's a villain. Also, his design is just cool.


Skull Kid:
Chance: 49%
Skull Kid is an anomaly when it comes to Smash Ultimate Speculations. Sure, he's popular since... well, since he first appeared, he's also iconic. I'm not sure many people voted for him during the ballot, I don't even remember many people talking about him before the last direct (except the core of his fanbase). But if he didn't receive many votes during the ballot, this is only because he got deconfirmed pretty early, otherwise, it would have been REALLY different. In my opinion, if we had to include a new fighter from Zelda, it would be Skull Kid or Impa. And since the first one is more known and popular, he seems like the perfect choice. So, he's a weird case and I don't know, I don't imagine him being in Smash. He would fit, no doubt about it, I just don't see it happening this time. But he still has many things going for him. To be honest, seeing Majora's Wrath as a boss is more likely to me.

Want: 50%
In the past, I would have say 100% but my interest in the character is not as big as it once was. I would still be happy to see him.

 

[Dr Bones]

Black Knight
Chance:50%, I haven't seen any hint for him or any real dedicated support. Sakurai loves his FE so I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in.
Want:50%, I've never played FE so I have no context for this character other than he looks cool and is evil(?). I wouldn't mind him being in but it wouldn't blow my socks off.

Skull Kid
Chance:95%, besides the rumors going around there has been plenty of support for him as he's been ahead in most polls and had aremake made around the same time as the roster was made.
Want:100%, controversial oppinion: I like Skull Kid more than Ganondorf. one of my favorite villain tropes is when a weaker character all of a sudden attains godhood and is overtaken by it. Skull Kid has clear motivations for his actions which are only made more grandiose and violent by the masks influence. The mask itself is possibly my favorite piece of iconography in video games, and playing as it in ultimate would be amazing.

 

[aarchak]

Black Knight

Chance: 10%
I highly doubt his chances, since we already got an FE newcomer, but I guess anything's possible. Why people are saying he's a lock baffles me. He has nearly no chance whatsoever.
Want: 0%
BK is one of my favorite villains in the FE series, but seriously, there needs to be more weapon variety in Smash. Gimme Hector before BK. Hector could just work the same as BK, just with an axe.

Skull Kid

Chance: 30%
Unlike most people, I don't think he's a lock. I don't believe Sakurai showing love for him means his chances are higher at all. It just means that people will go to any length to convince themselves their favorite characters will get in. His chances are "meh" at best, basically nothing at worst.
Want: 0%
I don't really want him, honestly. I don't care for him, and he isn't really iconic at all. Why people love him is beyond me, he just seemed weird and bland to me.

Nominations

Moon (LoZ: Majora's Mask) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Black Knight
Chance: 1%
Delzethin noted in his latest video that Black Knight never actually was in the backround of Castle Siege. Just a general unit wearing armor kinda resembling his. And after Chrom I'm convinced we're 100% done with more FE characters.

Want: 1%
Cool design but my anti FE bias outweighs that.

Skull kid
Chance: 50%
There is alot of evidence pointing at him being in the game. Atleast in a role that isn't an Assist Trophy. Decent chances he could turn out to be a boss character. Also I'm one of the people who think the Moon AT actually decreases his chances.

Want: ABSTAIN

Punch Out newcomer x5

 

[NintenRob]

Now Black Knight

He's somewhat anomaly to me, in both chance and want, so I'll give both scores at the end.

The most significant thing he has going for him is the Mii Costume. And the changed Knight on Castle Siege is curious although it was never a perfect match for Black Knight.

As an outsider to Fire Emblem (except Awakening), Black Knight was always a more stand out character to me. This is probably due to being one of the few with a trophy in Brawl and having a theme in the game. This just got emphasised when he got a Mii Costume and his trophy returned.

But does he really work as an echo? I have no doubt he has the skill set, but I think I'd need to see a mod or something first. It's hard to imagine he'd be the same weight as Ike. And we're not sure how skeletons really work in terms of echoes either because I'd imagine his own hit box would be much larger than Ike. And we do already have A LOT of Fire Emblem characters, including 2 echoes for Fire Emblem already. And Black Knight is far from a popular request. If there's room, sure add him. But I can't see why they would add him before

Impa
Dixie
Isabelle
Ken
Shadow

These 5 imo should get in before any other echo character (unless they decide to go for unique on some of them) if we get these 5 and more, than maybe I could see Black Knight, but even then, you have Demise, Ravio, Jeanne, Ninten, Black Shadow, Hilda and more for echo competition from franchises with a lot less.

But yet there is just a little something that I kinda want. 8 player Smash is a thing. I'd like to see franchises use 8 as their Max, have all in franchise free for all. Mario is already there, Skull Kid and Impa would let Zelda reach it, and counting the Trainer as 1 gives room for a Gen 7 Pokemon. I consider echoes pretty harmless, so I wouldn't mind too much letting Fire Emblem reach that number too. And half of the characters had to be clones to reach it so it's not really THAT bad.

Chance 30%
Want 40%

If someone has a video of Black Knight mod over Ike, I'd appreciate it.


Nominate no more stages x5


Also any chance we could get someone handle predictions and giving out extra noms?

 

[NocturnalQuill]

Skull Kid - 90% chance, 100% want

Skull Kid has got quite a few things going for him at this point. We've lacked a proper new Zelda rep since 2001, the longest gap of any major Nintendo franchise. Majora's Mask has seen a resurgence in recent years. The 3DS remake was super relevant in 2016, around when they were finalizing the roster. Skull Kid is yet another one of the missing ATs, and his absence is made extremely suspicious by the fact that we got Moon as an AT. No single Zelda game has ever had more than one AT, and I doubt that Skull Kid would be cut entirely. Finally, there's just too many uncanny references in the Direct room decor to chalk up to coincidence. The DK references in the E3 one sold me on the theory. Barrels and rope ladders aren't exactly common decorative items.

Skull Kid himself has tremendous moveset potential, ranged from a trickster to villain in his various appearances, and is actually a recurring character. He is the ideal candidate for a new Zelda rep outside of the triforce trio.

Black Knight - 55% chance, 50% want

This one's an interesting case. On one hand, we are bursting at the seams with Fire Emblem reps. Almost to the point where adding more could cause backlash. However, it is a little curious how Chrom was made a Roy echo when he was expected to be based on Ike. It's as though Sakurai needed to save Ike's echo slot for someone else. There is also the matter of the general in the Castle Siege throne room. He did resemble the Black Knight a little more before, although it's hard to tell if it was deliberate. Personally, I'm fairly ambivalent on this one. If we have to have yet another Fire Emblem rep, I would like it to be a villain, and the Black Knight is the closest thing we have to an iconic Fire Emblem villain.