Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Sakura Shinjuku

Chance: 0.01%
Not poular enough and doesn't carry much in game history. If we were to get another SEGA character I'm pretty sure it would be another Sonic character.

Want: 0%
Haven't played the games and have no interest to do so.

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x5

Who are we rating tomorrow?

 

[Opossum]

Double zeroes from me. An ultra-obscure non-Nintendo character with no notable Smash fanbase. I can safely say she's never happening.


Reinhardt trophy x10

 

[Kotor]

Sakyra Shinjuku

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

An obscure character from a mainly obscure Japan only franchise. North America apparently got Sakura Wars 5 but that was back in 2010. Japan had that particular game in 2005. 2010 was a Wii release. There's apparently one coming out in 2019, but that's it. It didn't even receive an anime/movie during the 2010s.


Rowlet x10

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

She fights with a katana, so people who want a samurai archetype character in Smash should be open to her inclusion. Plus apparently she can light her sword on fire? We could( have) ditch(ed) Roy if she were in, at least for the people who just want Roy for the fire sword (which is a not insignificant number). I haven't looked into her too much yet, but apparently she was in a dating sim game too? That is cool, lol.

My pick for a samurai is still Shiren the Wanderer, though. He even has a talking ferret!

I'll probably look into Sakura more and give a score later.

 

[Wyoming]

That name was butchered

Don't think she stands a ghost of a chance with the limited roster space and her status as third party not particularly being massive but nothing to laugh at. As far as SEGA characters go another Sonic or Arle Nadja seems more possible but I doubt we'll see that to begin with.

Nominating Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x5

 

[DaUsername]

Sakura Shinjuku
Double zeroes!!
Usually I don't give flat zeroes, but this character has literally nothing going for them. I'm not even sure why this was nominated.

Whoever we're rating tomorrow prediction: 5%, I guess.
Noms: All-star versus x10

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Literally Who

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

If Takamaru was disconfirmed because he’s Japan-only...

I don’t like to give zeroes in chance since Sakurai loves to pull things out of nowhere, but this makes absolutely no sense. If this thread, known for being decently global and up-to-date on most video game properties, has most posts not knowing her at all, that says something about her impact.

And beyond all of the people who don’t know her, she’s third party. A literal unknown vs any of SEGA’s characters...? Not happening.

Who are we predicting? I’ll predict 3.5% regardless.

Nom: Fountain of Dreams x10

 

[Quetzal77]

Sakura
Chance: 0%
I'm not sure what to say. She's too obscure and third party so...

Want: 0%
I don't know who this is.

Nominations: Medusa x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Sakura
chance and want 0%
obscure charcter that would be a third party. not only is she not a big charcter she also would have to deal with other 3rd party charcters that would be higher on priorty list

nominating labo man x10

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)

Chance: 0.001%
Like most people say, she's too obscure to be considered in Smash. Besides, the series itself went on a long hiatus ever since Sakura Wars 5 was released, so I don't see it happening.

Want: 85%
I only happen to know about her was because of her appearance in Project X Zone and I really loved her in that game. Not familiar with the series, though.

Nomination:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Sakura Shinjuku?

Chance: 1% - There's always a chance, I suppose.

Want: 0% - Except when it comes to me wanting her.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Sakura whatever chances: 0.1% after thinking about it, I actually think a flat zero is more appropriate
If the "whatever" above isn't clear enough this rating is not really inspiring to me, it's a character I don't know with a typical Japanese name from a series I don't know... but because I want to be somewhat constructive I did some research and found the Wikipedia article which said the series sold well enough, like 3 million units. However, the last game in the series released ten years ago (although another game is set to be released next year) and the series seems to have little presence outside Japan. I simply don't see how this series stands out compared to other third-party series that could reasonably get playble representation, it really feels like low grade ore.

Sakura Shinjuku Shinguji want: 0%
At least I did the effort of writing correctly the entire name this time. But considering I didn't in the paragraph above and in my previous post in the score prediction part I mentioned her as "Literally who"... well, you can guess how enthusiastic I am about it. Besides, after learning a bit more about the series, I still have no particular interest in seeing it represented in Smash.

Edit;: wrote her name correctly for real now. The error originally was in the thread's title.

Waiting for the schedule for prediction.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance - 0%

This is the first character we're rating that I've never actually heard of. That has to be an achievement in it of itself.

Regardless, I had to actually do some research on this character, and found the following:

• Series is almost-entirely Japan only. Had a single localization in the form of Sakura Wars V, which did poorly in western sales.
• Series has very little to do with Nintendo. Only main series appearance on a Nintendo console was a Wii port of a 2005 game.
• Even in the most recent game of the franchise, Sakura isn't even the main character.
• The only things the character has done in the past decade is appear in crossovers: Project X Zone 1 & 2, as well as a crossover event in Granblue Fantasy. Sakura Wars VI is a thing, but is being released in 2019, and was announced far too late for Smash development.
• Character has, almost literally, no support whatsoever in terms of Smash. She's not wanted in Japan, and she's not wanted anywhere else in the world, for obvious reason.

I think we're more likely to get three more Sonic characters, a Puyo Puyo character, and Toejam & Earl before we ever get her, or any Sakura Wars character.

Want - 0%

who even is this

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0%
Honestly, I didn't even know there were Sakura Wars games, I thought it was just an old anime and she would be another Goku/Shrek. She has no support and is nigh completely unheard of outside of Japan. And let's face it, Sega won't want to promote her over the likes of Tails, Eggman, Shadow, Knuckles, Nights, AiAi, and so forth.

Want: 0%
I haven't watched the show since the '90's and have completely forgotten what it was or about. The only thing I remember is that theme song, which, while catchy, isn't worth wanting a character who I completely forgot about.

 

[VexTheHex]

Sakura Shinguji
Chance - 0%
If Sega puts someone else in, it's very likely not going to be this very obscure girl. I don't see much of anything going for her.
Want - 0%
I'd rather have another Sonic character, Nights, Aiai, Nights, etc. for a Sega rep if we got another one. I don't know her and don't really care to.

Or I'd really want to go Retro and get...

Bleh... images aren't working. This site has been giving me more & more trouble as of late. >.>

I'd want Zeke or Julie from Zombies Ate My Neighbors. Second pick would be Toejam or Earl from Toejam & Earl.

Nominations Incineroar x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 1%
Want: 75%

Sakura Shinguji, pretty much the mascot character of the Sakura Wars Series. Now the Sakura War Series WAS an iconic and well known series in Japan. She's considered Sega of Japan's Mascot character rather than Sonic. Here in the west though, the series is very obscure unfortunately, like really obscure. With only the anime adaptations and their appearance in Project X Zone being the more well known notable appearance. The fifth game did come out here, but it bombed hard here and in Japan. Leaving the series dormant until it was announced a new Sakura Wars was announced a few months ago. This unfortunately hinders her chance.

And I would like her in as well. Especially with the catchy theme song of the series.

Prediction: 4.87%

Nominate: Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x10

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Sakura whatever chances: 0.1% after thinking about it, I actually think a flat zero is more appropriate
If the "whatever" above isn't clear enough this rating is not really inspiring to me, it's a character I don't know with a typical Japanese name from a series I don't know... but because I want to be somewhat constructive I did some research and found the Wikipedia article which said the series sold well enough, like 3 million units. However, the last game in the series released ten years ago (although another game is set to be released next year) and the series seems to have little presence outside Japan. I simply don't see how this series stands out compared to other third-party series that could reasonably get playble representation, it really feels like low grade ore.

Sakura Shinjuku want: 0%
At least I did the effort of writing correctly the entire name this time. But considering I didn't in the paragraph above and in my previous post in the score prediction part I mentioned her as "Literally who"... well, you can guess how enthusiastic I am about it. Besides, after learning a bit more about the series, I still have no particular interest in seeing it represented in Smash.

Waiting for the schedule for prediction.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

But.. you didn't write her name correctly.

Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 4% - People really need to do better research. The Sakura Wars games are incredibly popular in Japan, and on several ocassions outsold even Sonic the Hedgehog, their fellow SEGA mascot. When an official SEGA poll came out and asked what series fans wanted to see revived, Sakura Wars won by a landslide and, lo and behold, have a new game coming out next year. The series may be obscure in the West, but this isn't due to the games' quality - the only game that came here received no marketing at all. Sakura may not have been the main character in that game, but like Cloud she is sort of the de facto series mascot. She also represents a game type and archetype not yet in Smash. I think she's got a slightly better chance than most give her credit for. She could easily be a "WTF" pick.
Want: 100% - I love the series and she's my biggest pipe dream character.

Nominations:
Frank West x5

 

[Opossum]

But.. you didn't write her name correctly.

Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 4% - People really need to do better research. The Sakura Wars games are incredibly popular in Japan, and on several ocassions outsold even Sonic the Hedgehog, their fellow SEGA mascot. When an official SEGA poll came out and asked what series fans wanted to see revived, Sakura Wars won by a landslide and, lo and behold, have a new game coming out next year. The series may be obscure in the West, but this isn't due to the games' quality - the only game that came here received no marketing at all. Sakura may not have been the main character in that game, but like Cloud she is sort of the de facto series mascot. She also represents a game type and archetype not yet in Smash. I think she's got a slightly better chance than most give her credit for. She could easily be a "WTF" pick.
Want: 100% - I love the series and she's my biggest pipe dream character.

Nominations:
Frank West x5

What makes it at all likely that the "WTF pick," if there is one, will be a third SEGA character?

 

[Capybara Gaming]

What makes it at all likely that the "WTF pick," if there is one, will be a third SEGA character?

The point of a "WTF" pick is that no one could see it coming.

 

[Opossum]

The point of a "WTF" pick is that no one could see it coming.

That doesn't answer my question. Why, when the amount of newcomers is already limited, would Sakurai ever consider an incredibly obscure (because, face it, that's what she is) third party character that no one is asking for for nothing more than shock value? That's a lot of legal red tape for something most people don't even want (or even know, for that matter).

It's different for an obscure Nintendo character. This is a SEGA character, and third parties are already limited as it is. Why would Sakurai waste his time adding her?

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Sakura shinguji

Chance: Abstain. I only found out about her through project x zone lolol.

Want: 50% she seems to be a cool character but not before I get my characters in first

Nominations: zero(Megaman) x5

 

[CometX-ing]

Sakura Shinguji

Chances: 0%
I can't really speak on the popularity of the Sakura Wars as a series, from my understanding it's pretty niche, especially in the west. It's getting a new game, but that was only announced a few months ago, so it's not like it had a whole lot of high profile titles at the time of the project plan. Even so, it's more likley that we would get someone like Arle who is from a series which is extremely popular in Japan or another Sonic Team IP like NiGHTS.

Want: 40%
I have no real experience with the Sakura or her series save for her appearances in Project X Zone, and going by that she would be another sword user, maybe with her Kobu as a Final Smash. I wouldn't be too excited for her beyond her being a Sega IP that isn't Sonic being represented (I barely count Bayonetta) in Smash. Would much rather have NiGHTS giving her relationship with Sonic.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance - 0% - At least Puyo Puyo got a few localization for Nintendo Consoles, one of which was recent. The only one this one had a long time ago, and a poor selling one at that. She's not that notable history-wise, and ultimately has very little reason to get in compared to other things Sega has done. I don't see her at all.

Want - 10% - Not to my standards of third parties.


Predictions

Somebody we don't even know - 5.35% - This is as shot-in-the-dark as we can get.

Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: .01%
She's from a 3rd party game that (from what I'm gathering) is obscure nya. And she competes with other Sega characters, (if we get nyanother nya). Trophy nyappearance is her best shot imo nya.

Want: 35%
Never heard of her up till nyao, so I have nyo strong desire to see her nya. She's cute, and I like katanya's... so I'd be ok with her being in smash nya~

Nyominations
Brinstar Depths (Stage): x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

The point of a "WTF" pick is that no one could see it coming.

There has never been a "WTF" pick that was included in the game just for shock value.

: The face of Nintendo's first huge success in the video game scene, as well as being a multimillion seller, with over 43 million Game & Watch systems sold.
: The sole savior of the American video game crash of 1983, as well as being the earliest face of the NES. Without ROB, video gaming in the west wouldn't be anything like it currently is today, and could very possibly be still dead.
: One of the faces of the Wii, along with the Miis. Wii Fit was an incredibly successful game, especially amongst the casual market, which broke a whopping total of 22.67 million sales, and being the 6th best selling video game on the platform, selling more than games like Brawl and Mario Galaxy.
: Incredibly iconic character from an incredibly iconic game. Was a pack-in game with the NES, alongside Super Mario Bros., and apparently had sold a total of 28.3 million copies.

Every single "WTF" pick has had something incredibly important to do with Nintendo's past or present. I don't know why the next "WTF" character for Smash would not only be someone not even owned by Nintendo, but from a franchise with hardly any history with Nintendo as well.

What would be the point in negotiating with SEGA for putting a character in Smash that:

• Hasn't been a main character in a game since 2002 (aka isn't relevant)
• Is from what might as well be a Japanese only franchise
• Has absolutely no support to be put into Smash
• Is a character that has almost absolutely no connection to Nintendo
• Is from a franchise that has almost absolutely no connection to Nintendo

over any other SEGA character that might fill even just one of those?

 

[ShroomEL]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Never played Sakura wars, don't know who she is

 

[ProfPeanut]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0.5%
If nothing else, we could use this case to highlight this regional double-standard that people unavoidably have, regarding third parties. We see people like Doomguy and Banjo-Kazooie regularly thrown around with little regard as to what Smash's home-country Japan might think of the idea, and then we wonder why this or that Japan-only character might have a chance in comparison. You just have to look at how many people in this thread are typing the name of the Tokyo area than her actual last name to understand how unknown she is in English territories.

Having said that, Sakura Wars is unlikely to get a character anytime soon. Besides not being particularly important to Nintendo, it seems similar to Digimon in that its impact is far more due to its setting than its game mechanics. Sure, it has all this promotional spin-off material, but were the games themselves influential in the history of video games, or did they just sell well? Third parties need impact a lot more than they need sale numbers to be a good candidate.

An Assist Trophy cameo wouldn't be a bad idea, given its popularity as the apparent "Sonic of Japan". Then again, there's already about three samurai characters in the AT pool alone, so maybe that's an unlikely shot as well.

Want: 0.1%
Nothing personal, but if we're talking about female Sega candidates that are only incredibly popular in Japan, then I think Arle would be the better choice. (Talk about real double standards if you think Sakura has a shot while Arle doesn't!)


Prediction
Neku Sakuraba: 7%

Nominations
Ninten x5
Viridi x5

 

[Erureido]

I'm double abstaining for today. Not familiar with the character enough to give a proper rating.

------

Predictions:

Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends With You): 2.33%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 1%
- Too much competition. Chances are we’ll see a second Sonic character or even Arle instead.
Want: 14%
- I wouldn’t mind her much.

Prediction
Neku: 2.1%

Nomination
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x5

 

[DivineWrath45]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0%
There's no way in hell she's gotta make it in Smash, if we were to get another SEGA rep, it had to be from either the Sonic series or some well-known characters from that company. Sure, she's popular in Japan, but she's pretty much unknown outside Japan.

Want: 0%
I'm not really familiar with the Sakura Wars series, other than the fact that she made appearances in PxZ series, Granblue Fantasy and SRW X-Omega.

Nomination:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So I got the first day of overrated underrated done boy it was a doozy. The rest should not take me as long but damn it was tough. Probably why I messed up Sakuras name. Also abstaining from her since I have yet to play the series yet, though I plan on picking up the Wii Version since I feel it will rise in value.

K. Rool
63.04% Chance (Previously 48.49%)
78.26% Want (Previously 73.57%)

Remember when people said he was overrated and underrated on here? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Seems the votes say that he was underrated. A big jump in chance only slightly behind Rex and Pyra who are due for their reckoning tomorrow . A want score that towers high. A good day for the King, may his reign be just.

Captain Toad
31.22% Chance (Previously 48.60%)
53.66% Want (Previously 58.15%)

So, the Captain has taken a fall but the ship has not sailed. Still a respectable score in want and a dipped score in chance.

Ashley
47.83% Chance (Previously 34.00%)
58.02% Want (Previously 58.19%)

A minute drop in want but look at that chance increase. You better know her name because she is likely.

Chrom
32.07% Chance (Previously 8.18%)
36.19% Want (Previously 27.51%)

Perhaps Chrom may get his chance another day? Such a high rise, almost 4x more likely. He also had a nice uptick in want as well, albeit he is held back by anti Fire Emblem sentiment.

Impa
38.98% Chance(Previously 26.94%)
49.50% Want (Previously 49.08%)

An uptick in want but not by much. Her chance score however shines, as she is seen as quite likely.

Upcoming schedule
118 Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends With You)
119 Fawful (Super Mario/Mario & Luigi)
120 Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
121 Ayumi Tachibana (Detective Club)
122 Parabo & Satebo (Satellaview)
123 Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner (Fire Emblem)
124 Tetra (The Legend of Zelda)

Day Over, Rate Neku, Predict Fawful.

REMINDER FOR THIS WEEK EVERYONE HAS X5 EXTRA NOMS A DAY. PLUMP UP THAT NOMS LIST YALL.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Neku Sakuraba
Chance: 4%
A Switch port isn't going to get him in off of one relatively old game. Critically-acclaimed game, but still feels like kind of a dark horse. Still, he wouldn't be the most outlandish option.

Want: 10%
I played the game on DS when it came out. Enjoyed it well enough. Never had any desire to go back to it, though. I wouldn't exactly be disappointed with his inclusion, but I certainly wouldn't be excited.

Nominate Style Savvy character x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Headphones

Chance: 12%
What he has going for him is a critically acclaimed Nintendo-exclusive title that also sold well (not a hit, of course, but it did not flop like many niche Japan-set RPGs). He has also turned up in Kingdom Hearts (a 3DS-exclusive title at that), and his game has been re-released many times (including an upcoming Switch port).
So the game is fresh in Square Enix’s minds, and they acknowledge it as having crossover potential.
Being realistic, though, there are likely other priorities, both for third-party characters in general and for Square Enix to push, but all in all he isn’t too low (maybe this is just me comparing today’s candidate with yesterday’s).

Want: This is a tough one, because on one hand he is an amazing, developed character with a cool design and great moveset potential. On the other hand, Smash is a clash of the titans, and a Dragon Quest rep, Sora, and even Crono should probably get priority.
If we ever were to get a sequel (this could easily be SE’s next big RPG franchise if they play their cards correctly), then we’d see.
Going with a solid 65%

Fawful prediction: I wish this guy would have been rated before E3, maybe he’d have stood a chance. 7%

Nominations: NintenX5
Ryu HayabusaX5
(If anyone could use extra nominations for a character I might be willing to help out, I’m sort of lost after I finally got Ayumi up there)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Neku

Chance: 15%

With the TWEWU remake that's coming to the Switch he's getting back into relevance so I could see him having a shot as DLC. There are Square characters that could be higher priority however.

Want: ABSTAIN

Fawful: 3.78%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy x10

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Neku Sakuraba

Chance: 10%
Highly doubt he would get in. I mean, sure, he has an upcoming game on the Switch, but the problem is that the has to compete with other Square characters (such as Sora). I could see him as a DLC of sort, but not on the base roster itself.

Want: Abstain
I'm not really familiar with Neku or the series that he came in. All I know is that he's a cool guy, that's all.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x10

 

[NintenRob]

Neku
Chance 4%
This is just another case of "The games on Switch!! Must mean Smash" obviously wrong but whatever
Want 0%
No interest

Nominate Daroach x5
Modern Kirby Stage x5

 

[Deleted member]

I don't feel like giving Neku a score, so I'll abstain twice.

Ultra Space stage x10

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Neku Sakuraba want: 100%

The World Ends With You is a masterpiece, full stop. Anyone who has owned a Nintendo handheld console from the DS onward and makes light of this game is woefully out of touch with gaming. If you haven't played this game, do yourself a favor and either buy the DS version or wait and buy the Switch port (don't bother with the mobile phone port, as it doesn't use the dual screen mechanic). Speaking of the dual screen mechanic, The World Ends With You takes the best advantage of the DS features (dual screens, touch gestures, etc.) of any game of which I'm aware. I'm not sure how the Switch port will adapt these features, so it might be worth getting both just for the experience.

As for Neku himself, his moveset potential is incredible. It's a JRPG, so as you might suspect, he has an extremely wide array of abilities, which would allow him to fill aesthetic or mechanic holes in the roster as well as have plenty of options for custom moves. One important aspect of the way he fights in his game could make for an interesting gimmick: He does not use "melee" attacks whatsoever. He doesn't punch, kick, grab, etc. Two ways come to mind to make this interesting in Smash. While he doesn't attack with his body, he does possess telekinesis. In the game, he uses this to hurl objects in the environment at enemies. In Smash, he could use telekinesis as an attack with a disjointed hitbox completely separated from his body at a given distance. These attacks could either deal damage or function as windboxes. He would be a zoning character who would have to get distances just right, as getting in between him and his disjoint would leave him vulnerable. The second (and my less preferred, but still cute) way of referencing Neku's fighting style in his game would be to have him use his telekinesis to attack with Shiki's teddy bear (this is her standard attack). He could even incorporate Beat's skateboard telekinetically or non-telekinetically, but that doesn't appeal to me as much.

Did I mention that The World Ends With You has ****in awesome music? And how cool would it be to have a Shibuya stage with cars and bikes to throw around?

Nominations:

FE Spear User x10

 

[skylanders fan]

neku
chance
has a switch port coming but would be too late to be considered to have that play a part of if he is picked. never really seen a hige demand for him either I can see him as dlc but not base roster
13%

want
don't hate the guy just want otheres more
50%

nominating
labo man x6
incenoroar x4

predicitng fawful at 7%

 

[Deleted member]

Neku Sakuraba
Chance: 20%
Want: abstain

Comes from a fairly niche but still cult game, and other Square Enix characters like Geno might take the priority over him.
As always I'm abstaining in his Want score has I have yet to play his game, which'll get re-released this Fall on Switch.


Noms:
Female announcer x10

Fawful prediction: 17.34%