Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Opossum]

Except that comic doesn't paint the whole picture on the franchise and it's basically the initial impression someone getting in to Advance Wars would think or someone that's only heard about it. Not that there isn't any truth in to that but hot damn people have the tendency to overexaggerate to unspeakable proportions.

And lets be fair dude. You can't chalk up FE's success to supports when the 12 games that came before Awakening never got out of a certain user base. Awakening's success was due to being more accessible to a more casual audience and it releasing in the right spot in the 3DS' life.

Advance Wars never put that much of an emphasis on story because at the end of the day it's all about the gameplay when it comes to the series. The CO's are still memorable enough to be talked about to this day and even requested in Smash Bros albeit not as much as say Isaac. Even then however, I do expect a heavy CO focus in any future AW game.

The issue brought up in the article didn't mention the lack of "waifus." It was referring to players not connecting with their combat units. To say otherwise is misrepresenting the interview.

 

[Ura]

The issue brought up in the article didn't mention the lack of "waifus." It was referring to players not connecting with their combat units. To say otherwise is misrepresenting the interview.

Not that AW just needs "waifu's" to succeed but IS isn't going to bring the franchise back without having a way to ship CO's with one another and also be able marry CO's from different nations. When people think of that comment, they think of FE's anime aesthetic hence the comment about "waifu's". Of course AW will need a heavy emphasis on it's CO's and the relationships they have with one another but it's not hard to see why that's still something IS would want to do with a new AW game in addition to the relationship concept.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 10%
While they represent a good, otherwise-obscure part of Nintendo's history, they're apparently locked as a MIcrosoft IP. But they've been acknowledged as a request since Melee, and their support only seems to have grown over the years, the more irrelevant they become. They're a highly-requested legitimate pick that appears to be absolutely impossible to make a reality - which, knowing Sakurai, makes them an extremely attractive choice.

So the question, really, is based on how difficult Microsoft would be in this regard. Nintendo requesting B-K would be similar to asking Konami for Snake - an offer to do all the work bringing a forgotten character back into the spotlight, while the owner reaps almost all the benefits that the exposure brings. It'd be in pretty bad faith if Microsoft tried to use such an offer to hamstring Nintendo, especially when they're nearly not as reliant on the console market, so I'm assuming - well, hoping - that they'd have no reason to be difficult if such a deal was made.

(I really doubt that they'd try to get Master Chief into Smash instead, or that Sakurai would really care a whit if they did. Japan doesn't care much for FPSs, let alone the WW2/Halo era of shooters.)

Admittedly, the circumstances for the duo's chances haven't exactly changed - they're still as unlikely as ever. Postulating over what the inclusion of Minecraft content could mean assumes that the Minecraft content is really there, so it's not a concrete point until we get confirmation. If anything, the presence of so many third-party companies may be hurting their chances - five big Japanese companies to work with, and then try add Microsoft into that? Tough deal.

Want: 99%
In a timeline where Rare was never left behind by Nintendo, these guys would have been in a long time ago. While I've never touched a Banjo-Kazooie game, it does seem to me that Rare is a bigger part of Nintendo's history and Western influence than Nintendo themselves seem to realize. Them getting into Smash Bros would be long-overdue recognition, one that I can happily support.


Andy

Chance: 20%
Andy's chances are about as steady as they've been since the Brawl speculation days. The Wars series is much older than most people realize, with unique gameplay that hasn't been seen since the series was retired. The main difficulty would just be the moveset, which is understandable; while Andy has a unique character for the roster, he doesn't offer immediate ideas as to how he might work, and army unit deployment wouldn't translate easily into Smash.

Not much else to say. The Wars series got left behind during the Wii era, and there's no real sign that Intelligent Systems has any interest going back to it. Sakurai doesn't seem to have much special regard with it either.

Want: 60%
If only because they'd be an off-kilter choice, full of potential for something unique. I enjoyed the Advance Wars series; it has a brand of optimism that no other game seems to have, even though that very tone never really made sense with the gameplay.


Predictions
Layton: 6.5%
Skull Kid: 8%

Nominations
Ninten x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 5%
Limited slots. Also no, I for some reason cannot see him getting picked over Steve? and no I'm not happy about that.

Want: 55%
I have no real connection to Banjo and Kazooie. First game of theirs I played was Nuts and Bolts(oops) and heck, I have more connection with Conker having played Pocket Tales as my very first owned game, and Bad Fur Day out of curiosity, but I'm aware the bear and bird combo is popular with people and would be a HUGE hype generator. Would be interesting to witness at the very least.

Andy
Chance: 1%
It's not happening. Limited newcomer slots, Famicom wars being a very irrelevant series at this point, not got the same fan demand as Isaac, not even the most requested Intelligent Systems IP with Paper Mario being a fan favourite and Fire Emblem becoming a massive success story. Sorry Andy, I think you missed the boat.

Want: 30%
I used to care more about Andy being included as a fighter, but at this point with confirmed limited spaces, the Wars series being dormant and the rise of many other IPs, there's dozens of other characters who would take priority for me. He is however my top choice for a Wars character.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Not that AW just needs "waifu's" to succeed but IS isn't going to bring the franchise back without having a way to ship CO's with one another and also be able marry CO's from different nations. When people think of that comment, they think of FE's anime aesthetic hence the comment about "waifu's". Of course AW will need a heavy emphasis on it's CO's and the relationships they have with one another but it's not hard to see why that's still something IS would want to do with a new AW game in addition to the relationship concept.

Wouldn't it just be Fire Emblem lite at that point?

I think it needs to find it's own idenity.

Maybe adding base building?

Hypocritically opposite of what I just said, but taking aspects of RTS' and applying them to a turn based game

Maybe resource gathering?

 

[Runic_SSB]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 20%
They're a 3rd party character and their series has been dead for over a decade (almost 2 decades if you choose to ignore Nuts and Bolts), but they're a very heavily requested 3rd party character who have a strong history with Nintendo, and Phil Spencer himself said they're fine with Banjo-Kazooie being in Smash Bros.

Want: 15%
I don't care about them tbh.

Andy

Chance: 5%
Same thing I said about Chibi-Robo; Good history, but dead series. Except Chibi-Robo had the benefit of having a new game come out pretty close to when development started, whereas AW has been dead for years.

Want: 15%
I don't care about AW.

Professor Layton prediction: 12.5%

Skull Kid prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Raiden x10

 

[Ura]

Wouldn't it just be Fire Emblem lite at that point?

I think it needs to find it's own idenity.

Maybe adding base building?

Hypocritically opposite of what I just said, but taking aspects of RTS' and applying them to a turn based game

Maybe resource gathering?

It wouldn't be like Fire Emblem. It would just incorporate the relationship mechanics of that series. The gameplay would mostly stay unchanged albeit maybe the CO's leveling up. It might also have a support system but I doubt it would be like FE's.

Advance Wars already has resource gathering through capturing properties. That's one of the most important aspects of the series.

Base building is a good idea though. Cities/Bases being able to get created and destroyed. Something I think Wargroove actually incorporated.

 

[Sid-cada]

Banjo Kazooie

Chance - 10% - Nothing, really, has changed my opinon here. They are going to get in on pure fan demand, and is more dependent on how much there is vs. cost to recive them. As of now I can see some of that, but it's no where near enough to feel like he has especally good chances.

Want - 50% - I have no connection, but I understand the desire for them. I just don't really have an oppion here.


Andy

Chance - 5% - Yeah, with less roster space I'm less convinced they're in. He's in a very awkward spot, not quite old enough to be retro yet not recent enough to be included. If Sakurai sees enough to make him playable, I can see him in, but sadly I feel he's going to be overlooked in favor of more popular characters.

Want - 77.5% - Which is a real shame, because I think he would be interesting. Who wouldn't want to use an Anti-Air Tank to spike down a Jigglypuff? How about a Bomber run? Artillery suppressing fire? C'mon, he's got moveset potental aplenty. The only reason that I can't rate him higher is that a lack a personal connection to him.


Predictions

Lyaton - 13.53% - Should go down, I'm afraid...

Skull Kid - 6.35% - Not seeing anything improving his chances...


Nominatinos

Nihilego X5

 

[Diem]

It could also go

Microsoft: Sure you can use our character, but it'll cost you

Nintendo: How much

Microsoft: How much ya got?

Hasn't seemed to be a problem with any other third party characters. I don't understand why anyone would think a company that is already working with Nintendo on Minecraft (which has DLC content for Microsoft-owned IP's, including Banjo Kazooie) and crossplay on various titles, and has explicitly stated enthusiasm for the idea, would be unreasonable.

Plus, two Banjo Kazooie games came out on GBA... after Microsoft bought Rare. And Microsoft's leadership is much more openminded nowadays than it was then. Phil Spencer said as much in 2015 when he initially supported the idea of them being in Smash, talking about how they've worked with Nintendo on Rare IP's in the past. This isn't anything new.

Yeah, Microsoft could be unreasonable about the situation. What could also happen is that Nintendo's new president could cancel Smash on Switch and demand it be a mobile game with microtransactions. These are things that could happen, but are they likely? No. The evidence suggests that there would be no difficulties for Banjo Kazooie being in Smash.

It could go a number of ways, the point is, don't assume just because one guy who isn't the boss of bosses says he's OK with it that it's a sure thing. Microsoft as a direct competitor of Nintendo has their own interest, and while Phil Spencer doesn't see an issue the CEO could. Or MS's CEO could be a lot less reasonable in negotiating.

I don't see why the CEO of Microsoft would need to get involved in a matter as trivial as a video game character. And even if he did, he's the guy who changed Microsoft's direction from hoarding its software to its own platforms to putting them out onto other devices, like Android and iOS. If Microsoft and its CEO were as stingy as some other companies, the highly lucrative Minecraft would be an Xbox and PC exclusive. As it stands, Microsoft has remained committed to keeping it on other platforms, partially due to CEO Satya Nadella. Some Xbox exclusive games, like Killer Instinct and Halo Wars, have also been put on Steam recently.

And if Square Enix and Konami were able to be reasonable about characters with loose ties to Nintendo, I don't see why Microsoft would be unreasonable about a character that's almost completely tied to Nintendo.

I don't care at all about Banjo Kazooie, so whether or not they get into the game doesn't matter to me, and there's a dozen characters I'd rather see before them. But based on the evidence, there's no reason to believe there'd be any more difficulty in getting him in Smash than Cloud or Snake.

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from Banjo & Kazooie, jumping straight to Andy

Andy

Chance: 5% --> 5%

His chances still feel the same as I have rated before. Even though Intelligent Systems has expressed interest for making a new Advance Wars game, the franchise is still dormant at the moment. I do see where the retro appeal behind Andy comes from if we're taking Famicon Wars into account though, but I don't know if that's enough to make him considered.

Want: Abstain --> Abstain

Like last time, I can't give an accurate score for this one since I haven't played the Advance Wars games nor been exposed to that franchise all that much.

------

Predictions

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): 11.12%

I already have a feeling there will be a chance score decrease tomorrow. With the number of newcomers looking to be quite small for this next installment, it doesn't seem like there will be as many third party characters in the base roster. I can see many will argue against him because of his "lack of gaming history" or "lack of moveset potential," even though I would personally argue that he does have gaming history because of his contribution to the visual novel and puzzle game genres and how he helped Level 5 reached the public eye, and he could have moveset potential if you factor his inventions and the puzzle elements from his games. Well, enough about that, I'll add more detail about all this tomorrow when we rate him:

I am more interested in seeing how his want score will turn out this time. Last time he did the worst he has done in the want department out of all the RTCs he was rated in. I have a bad feeling there'll be less interest in him tomorrow, but we'll see.

Skull Kid (The Legend of Zelda): 5.34%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Abstain on Banjo & Kazooie. I know nothing of the series or characters.

Andy
Here's what I said last time:

Chance: 5%
Who? (I know who he is, this is rhetorical)

Want: 7%
I played Days of Ruin, and it was kinda cool. Didn't get me interested to play any others, though.

...Not much has changed. Not saying he can't have a moveset, but no AW character strikes me as someone with a ton of Smash potential.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Too tired for calcs, long day, passed out due to heat at one point I’m ok now.

Rate Layton and skull Kid, predict lip and Travis touchdown.

 

[RandomAce]

Day’s not over yet? Alright I’ll be quick.
EDIT: TCT~Phantom Please include this, I finished it right when you posted your message.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 30%

I’m not going to be rating third parties that high because it’s always difficult when it comes to them. But they are highly requested characters that had immense support from the ballot. Although Phil Spencer is fine with having Banjo in Smash, Microsoft is a direct competitor to Nintendo, so we aren’t sure about how the legal issues are.

Want: 40%

They’re definitely not someone I fully support but it would be nice if they become part of the Nintendo family that they were when they first shined. I wish the buyout didn’t happen because if it weren’t for it, Banjo and Kazooie probably would’ve been alive and they would’be been in the game since Brawl.

Andy:

Chance: 10%

I don’t think Andy is likely for this game. Although the series carries a long history, it has been dormant since 2008 and that was game in a completely different setting that didn’t even feature him. And since Andy didn’t get a lot of support during the ballot and with seemingly less newcomer slots, I don’t think he’s that likley.

Unless Advance Wars gets a new game, then Andy or whoever stars in that game becomes MUCH more likley to get in as DLC.

Want: 30%

This is mostly because I want an Advance Wars Rep in the game, however I don’t really like Andy that much as a character. Albeit I haven’t played his game, and I only played Days of Ruin, Days of Ruin was a game that I thoroughly enjoyed with it’s gameplay and interesting story. However, when I looked at the first two games, it didn’t really grab me.

Andy’s design is also something that I don’t really like which is why I prefer Will and Jake compared to him. If Andy is the protagonist of the new game and he gets a spanking redesign that depicts being slightly older and have an outfit more akin to Will and a more slicker hair style between Jake’s and Will’s while keeping his “keet” personality, the I’ll support him more. But right now, I’m not.

Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana

 

[DNeon]

I don't have the eneregy to do a full post but I can do a couple of words I guess:

Andy:

Chance: 20%

Optimism woo whatever I'm a homer so what it's hardly the most overrated someones put chances.

Want: 100%

Gimme Andy
Gimme new Wars

 

[Troykv]

Too tired for calcs, long day, passed out due to heat at one point I’m ok now.

Rate Layton and skull Kid, predict lip and Travis touchdown.

You life is filled with heat; I hope you're alright.

 

[Slyshock]

Professor Layton

Chance: 10%
Professor Layton is a Nintendo all-star in all but legal ownership.

A true titan of mobile gaming, his games have collectively outsold franchises like Star Fox and are on par with Metroid despite never appearing on consoles. Outside of games, he's received an anime, a manga, a few novels, and even a movie. His franchise is still going strong to this day with a game, a planned Switch port of said game, and the previously mentioned anime, though these all came in 2017 onwards. Various people involved with Layton have made references to Smash over the years, so the idea is certainly in Level-5's head. Ultimate wouldn't be the professor's first crossover either, since he's matched wits with Phoenix Wright prior. Europe in particular has a soft spot for him, so if region-based newcomers are planned then few would be more welcomed.

This is the paragraph where I start listing the negatives. The last games that Layton starred in were 2012-2014's Azran Legacy and the Ace Attorney crossover. The Layton series was dormant from 2015-2016, exactly when Ultimate's roster would've been conceived. While 2017 and on likely wouldn't have been relevant, it's worth noting that Layton's not the hero of the most recent game and anime. This isn't because the character isn't beloved, but because Level-5 wanted to scale back the scope of the story. He's still the goal and namesake of Layton's Mystery Journey and does appear in the anime, though not as the protagonist.

Being so close to Nintendo is a curse as much as it is a blessing, since that means Layton's much less relevant to gaming as a whole. While this wouldn't be an issue for a 1st party, the Professor isn't so lucky. Every other 3rd party, even Bayonetta, has had the opportunity to reach wider audiences, and thus it was much more of a newsworthy shock to see them playable. He faces in-house competition from Yokai Watch, and while it's true that Yokai Watch was on a downturn in 2015 it was still receiving more content at the time than the relatively dormant Layton.

He suffers from a lack of obvious moveset potential, which doesn't kill your odds but does take a toll on them if you're not a retro. While it's true the Professor's good with melee weapons, few would be interested in making the prince of puzzles another sword wielder. I can't imagine any way to make Layton a unique fighter without reducing him to Hammerspace Puzzle Reference: The Character. I wouldn't envy a Sakurai tasked with making a coherent fighter out of the Professor, and unless he had a strong attachment to the series already I wouldn't blame him for passing up the responsibility.

Want: 95%
I'd want him more if I could more easily envision how he'd fight, but unfortunately he's stuck with this paltry score. Layton's a one-of-a-kind character I like from a successful franchise I enjoy. He's a normal human, something I would like to see more of. He represents an unorthodox genre, which would add further diversity to the roster. I think he's more than earned a spot in the greatest crossover in gaming.

Skull Kid

Chance: 17.5%
A modest boost to chance.

Skull Kid's assist trophy wasn't in the E3 build. Three of his biggest rivals, Ghirahim, Midna and Tingle, weren't so lucky. The Zelda cast representing several games in the series instead of just Breath of the Wild is a plus. Breath of the Wild content is here and there in Ultimate, but nothing was changed up too significantly so it may not have as much an influence as previously thought. His flagship title got a timely remake. He's notably well-received, being further immortalized in Hyrule Warriors and various memorabilia (a lot of this is for the mask specifically, but the two are easy to group together).

While the prior pros are nice, Skull Kid's got just as many cons. A missing assist trophy doesn't mean much when there are still so many we've yet to see, it's doubtful that every absent fan favorite's going to get promoted. Even with the competition cut down, Impa has a more extensive resume and the champions of Breath of the Wild are more immediately marketable. Majora's Mask 3D was nice, but Twilight Princess HD didn't save Midna. He's popular, but it's doubtful whether Sakurai is even looking for a new Zelda fighter in the first place, considering he's done such a nice job remaking the existent cast already.

Want: 22.5%
Everything I said last time still applies, though want is a little higher due to the potential of drawing from Twilight Princess and making inferences about his abilities as implied in Majora's Mask. There are worse crimes than getting creative with a cool character, but I won't be too hurt to find out he's an assist trophy again.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Skull Kid

Want: 100%
That would be so awesome. Skull Kid is one of my favorite characters from the Zelda universe in what is probably my favorite game in it. I used to play Majora's Mask yearly, though I don't have access to it in anyway anymore. I lost the 3DS game cartridge and I don't have an N64 emulator. He'd be a fun and wacky villain, some some of the other suggested characters for the Mario series. But unlike the others, I actually like Skull Kid. I'm not sure what he's got that they don't but he must have a lot of it.

Abstain from all other votes. I don't know anything about the Prof Layton series.

Also I don't REALLY think not having an AT shown means a whole lot.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Professor Layton want: 0% (5-10*)

His moveset doesn't excite me very much.

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

Skull Kid want: 100%

Am I the only one who wants Skull Kid to not use Majora's Mask, except for a Final Smash? I want him to use his puppets, needles, flute/horn, disappearing, and lantern. The mask would still make for a good costume though. I also want a costume with the skull mask he buys from Link.

 

[NintenRob]

The unimportant one
Chance 2%
As far as third party franchise go, I just don't think Layton has what it takes. He's no where near on the same level as the other third parties except maybe Bayonetta, who had different circumstances for her inclusion
Want 10%
I've heard worse, but eh


Now for the real star of today! We need to go central big text for this!

Allow me to introduce:

Skull Kid is mischievous improve from the Zelda series first appearing in Ocarina of Time, but he's best known for Majora's Mask. There he served as the main antagonist wearing the titular Majora's Mask. In many ways, if Skull Kid were to get in, he would be a duo character of himself and the mask, which has become one of the most recognizable elements of the series despite having only one major role. It's popular enough to cameo in many games, some of which aren't even Nintendo properties.

Skull Kid is probably the most popular Zelda character and highest requested for Smash. In 2012, a poll with over 580,000+ votes declared Skull Kid the winner. Beating many characters who later went to become playable such as Mega Man and Shulk. This is a very impressive feat. Post polls I see online only garner around 1000 or way less giving us a very small sample size. But this is huge in comparison with Skull Kid getting 130000+ votes
http://vgtribune.com/smash-poll-2012-finals/

So he's undoubtedly popular. And this is shown in the games. With Skull Kid, Majora's Mask and the game itself being constantly referenced in other games and pop culture. This includes Monster Hunter Stories as DLC costumes and the cameo of the iconic moon in the Amazing World of Gumball!!

they're also no stranger to Smash. In Melee, the Majora's Mask was a trophy tussle event and in Smash 3DS/WiiU, not only was Skull Kid the very first assist trophy shown in the game, but the mask was also among the very first piece of DLC added to the Mii costumes. In fact the Mask was also the first dlc armour Aonuma decided to add to breath of the wild, after all the game means a lot to him being his first in charge.

So far they've gone unseen in Smash Ultimate, this doesn't really improve his chances but it means he's not out the picture. But that doesn't mean the reveal hasn't helped him though, far from it. Big competition in the form of both Midna and Tingle (and Ghirahim)have been deconfirmed. We also know the Zelda designs aren't going to be consistent throughout the series, we've got designs from all over the place, well 4 places anyway. And then there's echo fighters, a role of which Impa seems perfect for, which would likely have no bearing on the chance of unique character. So Skull Kid has very little in terms of competition from his own franchise, only really Tetra and maybe the champions. But they're no where near as popular or even as Iconic as Skull Kid. It also helps that Great Bay is back giving him a home stage of sorts. And before anyone mentions the moon in background, it has no bearing on his chance, The blue falcon is constantly both a stage element and a final smash.

And that's not even going into the biggest thing going for him.
TIMING.
Thank You Majora's Mask 3D. Releasing the same year the project plan started and his addition as the only Non WW, Non OC newcomer to Hyrule Warriors Legends, which was likely in response to his huge backlash to his absence prior to the game. Also in a photo contest on miiverse, Sakurai chose a MM themed picture featuring Skull Kid as the winner around the same time as Majora's Mask 3D was coming out


of course that's if we get a Zelda newcomer. But I believe there's a good chance of that happening. There's been a lot of demand for one and it is one of Nintendo's biggest ip and it hasn't had a unique newcomer since Melee.
Chance 55%
I believe that this is his best chance now! Of course this is in no way a guarantee. I do believe that a Zelda newcomer is quite likely and Skull Kid is the best bet!!
Want: Can I have a score over 100%
I'm the owner of his support thread for a reason. Majora's Mask is one of my most beloved games of all time and I want him more than ever. Especially now Young Link and Great Bay are back! Please!!! If Skull Kid got in, I wouldn't really care who else got in, I think the only newcomer who could annoy me if Skull Kid got in would annoy me is a Kirby newcomer not named Bandana Dee, but that's just because I really want him too and would be annoyed if someone else got in.

even Geno wouldn't bother me if Skull Kid got in. And I despise the idea of him.
​

end big text

that was rather long now for the little stuff
nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction
Lip 9%
Travis 19%

​

 

[PK Bash]

Layton
want: 100%
Only character I've ever wanted in Smash since Curious Village came out in 2007/08. I think people here may underestimate how much people do actually want this man.

chance: 25%
So this % thing seems really arbitrary for this but w/e, this is only a bit of fun right. Now you may not have played the games, which is fine, but a lot of people did, a lot of women in particular, and everybody who did adores the character. This man is iconic and has a huge broad appeal regardless of whether or not you are familiar with him and is one of the all-time greats of the DS and 3DS - I remember when Layton had his own page alongside Mario, Zelda and Pokemon on European Nintendo websites, he was that much of a big deal.
We do know he is one Sakurai's radar to some extent, as the character has been brought up to him on numerous occasions, and we also know that Akihiro Hino is all for it (dunno why he wouldn't be... but he has confirmed it).

Moveset potential is fine. You have here a character like Villager or Snake with interesting setups and zoning involving moving blocks, puzzle traps and even to some extent his ability to fence (wouldn't be his whole moveset, chill out... as a zoner he'd benefit a lot from having a disjointed forward air or something anyway). There's a lot of iconic elements you can draw on for his moveset, as well as his home stage, soundtrack (god is this good), assist trophies, Final Smash, all that good stuff.

I talked a bit about Layton's moveset potential over the weekend on his support thread. Been meaning to write something a bit more substantial on it for a while now, might do that today when I get home or this week sometime so keep an eye out for that maybe. You could definitely make him more than just an amalgamation of random puzzles, which seems to be the main concern of Slyshock above.

And being third party... honestly if you ignore all the fan-constructed rules where people have tried to see patterns when there aren't any patterns to see, I don't see how this is an issue. We all know SSBU is going to earn more than enough to allow a cut of royalties to Level-5 without putting anyone else out of pocket. For a character like Layton, something of a Nintendo icon of the last generation in a similar way to someone like Mega Man was back in his day, its not like we can apply the classic third-party argument of "how 'Nintendo' is this character really" that Cloud (and even Snake tbh) blew out the water - he's one of the most 'Nintendo' third parties left.


Layton is a prime character pick for Smash, he does pretty much everything right except having his "last" game in 2014 instead of 2015...
A dark horse maybe, but not a crazy pick at all.

 

[Deleted member]

Layton want: abstain
Skull Kid want: 15%
normally i would've given him a much higher score because even though i haven't played majora's mask yet, he seems like an appealing character to me and he would be my first choice for a zelda rep. however i do not believe in "reps", and i actually made a bet with Cosmic77 - if a unique zelda newcomer is added, i will have to change my avatar to something very embarassing for a month. obviously i will keep my end of the bet but i'd like to win anyway.
chance: 10%
popularity is all he's got going for him i think, and even then i think it's massively blown out of proportions. he probably didn't get that many votes in the ballot because most people had sm4sh dlc in mind, and skull kid was an assist trophy in that game. and i feel like he's going to be an assist trophy again - he just wasn't shown off yet.

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Professor Layton

Chance - 1%

With newcomers already being low this time around, I really doubt Sakurai and friends would bother with a 3rd party character that not only doesn't have the widespread appeal of other third parties like the non-Bayonetta third parties in Smash, and doesn't really have the clamor like some other third parties do.
Alongside that, he faces competition from Jibanyan, another Level 5 character, who has a lot more claim to fame, especially in Japan, around 2015/2016, when the Smash Ultimate planning was being completed.

Want - 0%

I'm not really a fan of seeing any 3rd party character in Smash that I not only have no attachment too, but is hardly iconic at that.

Skull Kid

Chance - 5%

With the advent of Zelda characters no longer needing to stick to one set game design, I think his chances have gone up a little bit, but I can just as easily see the Smash team thinking that the Zelda series has not only already gotten a whole ton of love in Smash Ultimate (Link is BotW-based now, every character has a unique design, Ganondorf finally uses his sword, three new Final Smashes, Young Link returns), but any other character to add is just a one-off side character, so that there's better things to work on.

If we do get a Zelda newcomer though, I'm sure that it'll without a doubt be him.

Want - 20%

He's cool. I like Majora's Mask, but I'm pretty content with how the Zelda series has been handled in Ultimate. Anything else (except for maybe an Impa echo) would just feel like overkill to me, honestly, especially considering Skull Kid's irrelevance in every Zelda game that isn't Majora's Mask.

 

[Banette]

I'm rooting for Skull Kid this time around. Other posters do the arguments better - something about Zelda needing better representation or an actual newcomer for once, something about no assist and potential, etc. I don't know.

But I was just thinking: a lot of the characters that you guys are saying have a good chance, I've never heard of. That's okay, I don't keep up with most video game stuff; Skull Kid isn't like that. Not that I've ever played a Zelda game or anything, but that mask he's wearing has some surprising fame, you know? I genuinely believe that if Zelda is to get more representation, Skull Kid is the most recognizable candidate by far. I hear the name Impa thrown around a lot, and apparently she appears in a lot of the games; I may be wrong but I don't believe she's that well-known outside this Zelda/Smash sphere.

Recognizability is important in an all-star game like this right? Skull Kid has that. 55%.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Skull Kid:

Chance: 20% - A slightly better rating than last time because of how this game isn't just getting itself caught up entirely in BotW, regardless of which game a LoZ character comes from he/she's got a fair shot. I still don't think he's very likely though, if they opt for a black magic user I think it'll be Ashley, and I'm not optimistic LoZ will even get a fully fledged newcomer, not if the number of newcomers is as limited as I think it is. Maybe if it's a full-on fanservice game his rating will shoot up, but we need a bit more evidence on the newcomer side of things before we can draw that conclusion.

Want: 100% - My most wanted character since Ridley got in, Majora's Mask is my favorite LoZ game, and I love how almost everything in it can be trailed back to Skull Kid's mischief. He's also got a personality that would really stand out in Smash, tons of moveset potential, and of course an extremely iconic design. I think he makes a ton of sense on every level and would give a lot to Smash, I'm just not optimistic it'll happen.

 

[Deleted member]

Professor Layton
Chance: 10%
Want: abstain

Skull Kid
Chance: 30%
Want: 0%


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Lip prediction: 40.81%
Travis Touchdown prediction: 26.27%

 

[verysleepywolf]

~Skull Kid~

Chance: 35%

Operation Moonfall, the success of MM3DS, the never ending buzz and recognition that MM receives constantly. It was once an obscure oddity overshadowed by OoT, but not anymore. Many are open about their love for the game and even feel that the series hasn't had a sequel quite on the same level until BotW. The Majora's Mask itself as a design is incredibly recognizable. This game was important to the growth of the franchise as a trial of competence for series director Aonuma. Ultimate is spreading its Zelda characters out across a variety of games and the other Zelda that can compete with MM as far as cult status goes is WW, which has Toon Link. Midna and Ghirahim are revealed to be ATs, Tingle is a stage element, Young Link is returning as a veteran and Great Bay is returning as a stage. It's like the red carpet has been rolled out for Skull Kid already. Fan polls show Skull Kid is a very hotly demanded character and has ingrained himself in the minds of many as the MM mascot. This is all without approaching his moveset, which has an extensive selection of attacks and abilities that can be pulled from OoT and TP as well as obviously the dark magic from the mask itself. Everything... his maniacal laugh, theme music, visual appearance, unorthodox villain archetypes, the darkly colorful style of magic in the mask... it's all unique and incomparable to any other character in SSB. He's begging to be a character and is held back by limited appearances in Zelda games.

Want: 100%

Zelda is my favorite franchise in gaming. MM is my favorite video game of all time and defines my taste as a gamer. Skull Kid has been my most wanted newcomer since I remember making a fan-list for SSB characters with my friends in elementary school. I'm ready for my main.

 

[Sari]

Layton

Chance: 5%. Other third party picks will definitely have more priority.
Want: Abstain

Skull Kid

Chance: 20%. MM3D did well and Skull Kid is popular in general, though I think we have enough Zelda reps now.
Want: 30%. Majora's Mask is one of my all time favorite games ever, though honestly I don't care all that much for Skull Kid. That being said though, if they were to add another Zelda villain then Skull Kid would definitely be the next best choice.

 

[Cosmic77]

Abstain from Layton

Skull Kid

Chance: 5%
I've been keeping an eye on Zelda characters - eight of them in particular. Out of these eight characters (technically twelve), half have been disconfirmed.

Pig Ganon
Impa
Tingle
Skull Kid
Toon Zelda/Tetra
Midna
Ghirahim
Champions (Daruk, Revali, Mipha, Urbosa)

Skull Kid managed to outlive half of his competition. That's a pretty notable accomplishment. However, if I'm being honest here, it's looking like he'd be the next most likely character to be disconfirmed. Midna was in an identical spot as Skull Kid, and she didn't even make it past E3. Skull Kid has the popularity and the iconicness, but these are things he's always had; I don't see why Sakurai would randomly revisit Majora's Mask now of all times for a Zelda newcomer. Sadly, I'm not picking up many reasons to believe that Skull Kid, out of all the current unseen ATs, would be upgraded to a playable character.

Want - 25%
I never particularly cared for Skull Kid, but I'm more on board with the idea now that I made a bet with @Lampy on whether or not we'd get a unique Zelda character.

The only reason why I'm not rating him higher is because there are other Zelda characters I want who haven't been disconfirmed yet. Take a wild guess who those characters are.

 

[skylanders fan]

layton
chance
small newcomer roster combined with if we get a 3rd party more fan favorites would be picked over him
1%
want
never cared for him and his games
0%

skull kid
chance
old assist trophy that was MIA and a popular zelda charcter. He could have done decent in the ballot and would be a fan please as the first zelda newcomer since melee
40%

want
in my top 5 I am rooting for in smash so I'll be really happy if he gets in
100%

predicting
lip at 2%
Travis touchdown 8%

nominating (are we still doing 10 if not just take my first 5)
incenoroar x5
returning stage Poke Floats x5

 

[ZTurtle]

Layton:
Chances: 10%
Layton is a very iconic character, and very much tied to Nintendo. That said, I think most would consider him sort of an odd choice, and I'm not sure if he got enough support during the Ballot to make it in over other third parties like Banjo and Simon.

Want: 55%
I didn't really get into the Layton series. I tried a bit of the first game and played Professor Layton Vs. Phoenix Wright, but I guess puzzles aren't really my thing. That being said, I am relatively acquainted with his character from these games, and as such, I wouldn't mind him at all. I think he's a cool guy and I would enjoy his aesthetic in Smash.

Skull Kid:
Chances: 45%
On one hand, pretty notable Zelda antagonist. On the other, is he notable enough? Though he did win that poll from a long while back, so I think he's got a shot. And MM:3D along with his playable appearance in Hyrule Warriors does help him in the relevancy department. So... yeah, maybe.

Want: 75%
I'm not a huge Zelda fan in the slightest, but I lowkey kinda want a Zelda newcomer just because I feel like the series deserves it. While I feel like Tingle might be more fitting on account of him being more recurring, I think that Skull Kid could be a pretty rad contender. Majora's Mask is my favorite Zelda game, so I'd like having him in the game, especially since we could then we could have a Young Link and Skull Kid face-off, which I think would be pretty cool. I do think that he would be kind of weird on account of him being a one-off villain while the rest of the Zelda cast are mainstays (Except for Shiek. I do kind of feel that way about her to a degree as well, but she's so iconic to Smash that I've all grown accustomed to her being in the roster like everyone else). But for what it's worth, he's my favorite one-off villain and the Zelda character I'd enjoy seeing the most, so I'd dig his inclusion nonetheless.

 

[Opossum]

The unimportant one
Chance 2%
As far as third party franchise go, I just don't think Layton has what it takes. He's no where near on the same level as the other third parties except maybe Bayonetta, who had different circumstances for her inclusion
Want 10%
I've heard worse, but eh


Now for the real star of today! We need to go central big text for this!

Allow me to introduce:

Skull Kid is mischievous improve from the Zelda series first appearing in Ocarina of Time, but he's best known for Majora's Mask. There he served as the main antagonist wearing the titular Majora's Mask. In many ways, if Skull Kid were to get in, he would be a duo character of himself and the mask, which has become one of the most recognizable elements of the series despite having only one major role. It's popular enough to cameo in many games, some of which aren't even Nintendo properties.

Skull Kid is probably the most popular Zelda character and highest requested for Smash. In 2012, a poll with over 580,000+ votes declared Skull Kid the winner. Beating many characters who later went to become playable such as Mega Man and Shulk. This is a very impressive feat. Post polls I see online only garner around 1000 or way less giving us a very small sample size. But this is huge in comparison with Skull Kid getting 130000+ votes
http://vgtribune.com/smash-poll-2012-finals/

So he's undoubtedly popular. And this is shown in the games. With Skull Kid, Majora's Mask and the game itself being constantly referenced in other games and pop culture. This includes Monster Hunter Stories as DLC costumes and the cameo of the iconic moon in the Amazing World of Gumball!!

they're also no stranger to Smash. In Melee, the Majora's Mask was a trophy tussle event and in Smash 3DS/WiiU, not only was Skull Kid the very first assist trophy shown in the game, but the mask was also among the very first piece of DLC added to the Mii costumes. In fact the Mask was also the first dlc armour Aonuma decided to add to breath of the wild, after all the game means a lot to him being his first in charge.

So far they've gone unseen in Smash Ultimate, this doesn't really improve his chances but it means he's not out the picture. But that doesn't mean the reveal hasn't helped him though, far from it. Big competition in the form of both Midna and Tingle (and Ghirahim)have been deconfirmed. We also know the Zelda designs aren't going to be consistent throughout the series, we've got designs from all over the place, well 4 places anyway. And then there's echo fighters, a role of which Impa seems perfect for, which would likely have no bearing on the chance of unique character. So Skull Kid has very little in terms of competition from his own franchise, only really Tetra and maybe the champions. But they're no where near as popular or even as Iconic as Skull Kid. It also helps that Great Bay is back giving him a home stage of sorts. And before anyone mentions the moon in background, it has no bearing on his chance, The blue falcon is constantly both a stage element and a final smash.

And that's not even going into the biggest thing going for him.
TIMING.
Thank You Majora's Mask 3D. Releasing the same year the project plan started and his addition as the only Non WW, Non OC newcomer to Hyrule Warriors Legends, which was likely in response to his huge backlash to his absence prior to the game. Also in a photo contest on miiverse, Sakurai chose a MM themed picture featuring Skull Kid as the winner around the same time as Majora's Mask 3D was coming out


of course that's if we get a Zelda newcomer. But I believe there's a good chance of that happening. There's been a lot of demand for one and it is one of Nintendo's biggest ip and it hasn't had a unique newcomer since Melee.
Chance 55%
I believe that this is his best chance now! Of course this is in no way a guarantee. I do believe that a Zelda newcomer is quite likely and Skull Kid is the best bet!!
Want: Can I have a score over 100%
I'm the owner of his support thread for a reason. Majora's Mask is one of my most beloved games of all time and I want him more than ever. Especially now Young Link and Great Bay are back! Please!!! If Skull Kid got in, I wouldn't really care who else got in, I think the only newcomer who could annoy me if Skull Kid got in would annoy me is a Kirby newcomer not named Bandana Dee, but that's just because I really want him too and would be annoyed if someone else got in.

even Geno wouldn't bother me if Skull Kid got in. And I despise the idea of him.
​

end big text

that was rather long now for the little stuff
nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction
Lip 9%
Travis 19%

​

Just wanted to point it out, but the VGTribune poll was rigged by bots.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Professor Layton

Chance: 1% - Another 3rd Party with decent history, but strong competition. I don't see him happening.

Want: 0% - I've no interest in adding more 3rd Parties to the roster.


Skull Kid

Chance: 20% - I think he has an overall decent shot this time around, but I don't think it'll be enough for him. I think having Young Link back as well as Ganondorf in his Ocarina of Time design slightly improve his chances, as it shows that the Zelda cast don't need matching designs. Also helps that he's a decently popular character, and people have been wanting a Zelda newcomer for a while now.

Want: 50% - I'd love to see the Zelda series get a new character, but Skull Kid wouldn't be my first pick. Still, I wouldn't complain.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Layton
Chance: 10%
Faces heavy competition from other third parties, even from his own company in the form of a dead kitty.

Skull kid
Chance: 20%
He was a pretty popular request back in the day and fits the timing thanks to the remake.
I still consider him to be a one off character, sure the Skull kid species appears in multiple Zelda games but we are clearly talking about the specific Skull kid from Majora's mask. I still question if we're even getting another Zelda newcomer this time.

Travis Touchdown: 12.74%
Lip: 11.86%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10

 

[Erureido]

I'm just going to copy and paste everything that I said when we last rated Professor Layton. It sums up all my points.

Professor Layton and Luke were exploring Smashboards again after hearing the news about the recent Smash Bros Switch announcement. They have been wanting to investigate and solve the mysteries surrounding the tournament. While exploring the Newcomer Speculation forum, they noticed a thread that caught their attention: a thread titled "Rate their Chances - Switch Edition! Day 27 - Professor Layton."

Look, Professor! The Rate Their Chances thread is back! I didn't think it would return so soon, let alone did I think it would examine you this early on!​

Well, it's only natural the announcement of an upcoming Smash tournament to entice people to the point of reviving fun ways to keep their excitements high.

That makes sense. The Rate Their Chances game seems to be one of those traditions people do to prepare for the Smash tournament.​

Indeed. It's a place where people speculate about a fighter's chances of participating in the upcoming Smash tournament. Seeing how the thread thrives with speculation, this reminds me of a puzzle!

A puzzle? What do you have in mind, Professor?​

Luke, remember when we first participated in the Rate Their Chances thread two years ago in that Character Support Thread Group part of Smashboards?

Yes, I do! We talked about what we thought your chances at appearing in the Smash tournament at the time!​

Precisely, my boy! Seeing how we first discussed my chances at appearing in the Smash tournament a while ago, I think it is worth discussing it again.

But it has only been two years since we solved that puzzle, Professor. I don't think much has changed.​

Oh, you would be surprised, Luke. A lot has happened since we last discussed this topic, and some of these things have even boosted my chances. That's why I think it's worth revisiting this puzzle! I'll help you through it just like I did last time. We can both work together to find the solution!

Of course! Let's do this together, Professor!​

*Que into the Layton symbol that segways into the puzzle*

Puzzle 027:
The Layton Smash 5 Mystery Revisited​

Here's some music for you to enjoy​

Professor Layton and Luke are revisiting the Rate Their Chances thread. This is a place where people discuss a video game character's chances of participating in the next Smash Bros tournament. With the recent announcement of a new tournament coming to the Nintendo Switch later this year, you bet everyone is eagerly speculating yet again. Today just so happens to be the day people are talking about Layton's chances at appearing in the tournament.

Some aspects about Layton's chances remain the same, but others have changed. In fact, some of those new elements have improved his chances!

Using the knowledge about Layton's chances in the Smash 4 days and how his chances are currently looking like for Smash Switch as of April 2018, what is an accurate chance score for the Professor at the moment?

I think we should begin by reiterating what remains true about the positives. ​

Indeed, my boy. It never hurts to take care of the easy elements first before tackling the harder parts. You can begin.

One of the strongest advantages you have is that your games have a very close relationship with Nintendo. They are all Nintendo exclusives, and they were especially successful! As of April 2015, the series has sold over 15 million copies! The first four games sold especially well, while the 5th title, Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask, was the best-selling 3DS when the Nintendo 3DS was first released in Japan. In fact, your series has become one of Nintendo's flagship series in its portable gaming industry!

It's also worth mentioning that while your games were popular worldwide, they were especially popular in Europe thanks to the European cultural elements found in each of those games. Your games have even gained a large following amongst female gamers (and the fact Katrielle Layton is the new star of the new Layton games is proof of that), so I conclude that if you were invited for Smash, you will surely attract a wide array of gamers to the tournament.​

Well said. Now that we are on the subject of the Smash tournament's organizer, Nintendo, I think we should build off of that and talk about how that company is closely affiliated with the one that created us: Level 5.

Level 5 and Nintendo... a-ha! The two companies share a very close relationship together! Almost all of Level 5's games have been Nintendo Exclusive, and even the Inazuma Eleven anime created by Level 5 was also featured in the Nintendo Anime Channel for a period of time.

We also cannot forget that Nintendo is the company in charge of publishing, translating, and advertising the Level 5 games when they come out to the West. This relationship is so close that many people have mistaken you for being a Nintendo character, Professor!​

Hahaha, very true! Level 5 and Nintendo have a strong friendship indeed. Akihiro Hino, Level 5's CEO, even expressed interest in seeing me participate in Smash at one point.

There was also something else that crossed my mind about your series' success. The series has achieved seven games, a well-received movie, and even a crossover with that famous lawyer, Phoenix Wright!​

Right you are. There are also a few new things associated with my franchise too that have developed in this past year.

New things? What exactly do you mean, Professor?​

As you are aware, the seventh game in the franchise and the subsequent games that will come after it star my daughter, Katrielle Layton, as the main protagonist. As such, one of the new things she will star in is a new anime that begins airing this month.

An anime? Good golly, I didn't think your series would spawn an anime!​

Remember that my series did have an animated, feature-length movie that was praised by critics and fans. Considering this fact and how far the series has come, I don't think it's that surprising to see an anime.

Well, in that case, we can definitely add that anime to your list of credentials. Maybe we should also add that you now have two Twitter accounts as well?​

Admittedly, it has almost been a year since I last updated in my personal Twitter account, but I would certainly take note about the official Layton series Twitter account as that is proof my franchise has an identifiable mark in the mainstream Internet.

That makes sense.... Huh...​

Is something on your mind, my boy?

Yes. It has do with your daughter, Katrielle.​

My daughter? I sense an interesting argument about to be brought forth. Go on.

Seeing how your daughter is the new main star of the new Layton series and the upcoming anime, I feel like some will argue that she is the one who has the better shot to participate in the upcoming Smash tournament instead of you.​

Ah yes, the question of relevancy and how it can affect old vs new stars. I know just the answer to that concern.

My daughter may have inherited the reigns of being a main protagonist, but I would not say this automatically gives her a higher chance. Due to her recency, not many people are likely to recognize her from the get-go compared to the one that has been the main protagonist for much longer.

Ah, so you're saying that because you have been around for much longer than she has, you are the more recognized individual, and therefore, you are more likely to participate in the upcoming tournament.​

Precisely!

And on that note, when she first established her detective agency, many of her customers were surprised that she would be the one solving the tasks and not you. That just shows you are still the more recognized individual at the moment.

We also can't forget that you still do appear in her recent game and anime as well. After all, one of her main goals is to find your whereabouts. That just shows you are still playing a major role in her games, even if you are not the main protagonist.​

Good points, Luke.

Do you think she'll ever have a chance at participating in a future Smash tournament, Professor?​

Why of course! I think there will come a day when she will be eligible to receive an invitation for that sort of thing, but the first thing for that to happen would have to involve me being invited to the Smash tournament. Once I am invited and participate in it, that will allow her and other prominent individuals from my series to receive a chance to compete in this grand competition. At the moment, I think it'd be best to give her some time to learn and develop her puzzle-solving skills some more before she can participate in something that can be quite dangerous.

I see you that you still care about your daughter very much. You are quite a loving father, Professor.

Now that we talked about Katrielle enough, I think we should go back to the subject of your series' fame. I remember you made a good point about how you were very important to Level 5's success!​

Ah yes! You could also say that the success of my series is what allowed Level 5 to reach the public eye and become one of the more recognized video game companies of this past decade. By keeping the same style that myseries introduced, they went on to produce two other successful series: Nii no Kuni and Yokai Watch.

I've even made a few cameos in some Level 5's other works. First, there was Inazuma Eleven where us and the famed soccer team shared a fun football match. That one Yokai Watch character, Professor Lenkon, is also inpired from me (a pretty amusing one too if I do say so myself). Finally, I also appeared on a billboard in LBX: Little Battlers Experience.

And judging from all these crossovers, that means Level 5 acknowledges you as its major gaming icon!​

Exactly! Now, keeping that concept of gaming icon in mind, what is my series known for?

The puzzles! They work a lot like a series of brain teasers, and they cover various modes of critical thinking. For that reason, you are the puzzle-gaming rep of all video games!​

Careful now, Luke. Remember to add the word "arguably" to that specific claim. There are other video game characters you could make good arguments regarding who is the current greatest puzzle-game rep in the gaming world.

Oh, right. I remember that you also made a brief aside regarding how one of the current Smash tournament participants, Dr. Mario, doesn't necessarily qualify for that kind of title.​

Indeed. Dr. Mario isn't a true puzzle game rep since his games are essentially spin-offs of a much bigger franchise. My series, on the other hand, would have more interesting representation in the Smash tournament since it's a unique series that is especially known for puzzles and mysteries.

That is a very good point.

Another thought has also just crossed my mind. When your series first began, Nintendo was looking to appeal to the casual audience. One casual activity Nintendo discovered that those people enjoy is reading books, so the company figured one way they could appeal to them was to release games with a visual novel format, and your series had that kind of style.

Combine the visual format style with the brain teasers, and you have a game that appeals so well to casual gamers. That's why your series has been very successful!​

Well said, my boy! I see that you remembered that argument quite well!

But that also reminds me of something. Even to this day, there are STILL people who laugh and underestimate you. They say you would never be invited to a Smash tournament because, "You're just a gentleman who solves puzzles. You can't fight at all!" Those people really get on my nerves!​

Stay calm, Luke! Now is not the time to get angry in a place like this. If you speak with anger towards them, they may not think of you well. A true gentleman is one who stays calm and speaks well in order to leave the best impression on others. I shall give my response to those people once more.

To answer their concern, I would remind them about the fact that Smash has had individuals like a yoga trainer, a simple dog with his duck pal, and an ordinary village boy participate in the tournament. Apparently, I'm one of those characters that the tournament's organizer, Masahiro Sakurai, would invite for the shock value.

Many of my attacks would most likely revolve around the numerous numbers of puzzles I solved throughout my adventures. The way I would use those elements would be similar to another character named "Mr. Game & Watch" and how he pulls out different elements from his series at random to pay homage to the Game and Watch series.

I would also tell them that I have created various inventions in the past using my intellect that have pulled me through dire situations. Among these inventions include A machine gun made from a coin-slot machine, a flying mechanism made from a globe frame, a stone-launching catapult made from a gate, a boat, and a ladder, a gliding contraption made from a Pterodactyl fossil, and other things. I can incorporate these inventions into my moveset to further demonstrate my intellect.

I can also utilize various archaeological tools and artifacts against my foes. It's important that these fighters know what field that I teach as a professor by having such objects ready. My fencing skills will also be especially handy for an environment like this.

Hearing you speak so eloquently on this matter has calmed me down. Thanks Professor! ​

Anytime, Luke!

But don't forget to not rely on your sword too much or else people will think you're just another ordinary sword-fighter, and there seems to be some kind of stigma against those kinds of fighters at the moment.​

You are correct. I would be sure to only use a sword for a few attacks so that I can focus on the puzzles I solved and the inventions I created. By striking this balance, this will give spectators the impression that I am a fighter representing the puzzle and mystery-game genre and not an ordinary swordsman.

I think we talked about the positives long enough. Should we get to the negatives that can prevent you from being invited to the Smash tournament? I actually remember a lot of those points that we previously discussed regarding them.​

Yes, now is a good time to touch on that subject. Carry on!

The biggest issue that comes to mind is that you are a third-party character. Such individuals are harder to invite to Smash than the first-party ones. In fact, they say you need a really big legacy to be invited, and compared to some of the more commonly discussed third-parties like Rayman or Snake, some people think you are not iconic.

But what they do not realize is that you fit Sakura's third-party criteria when it comes to how he chooses which third-party characters to fight in Smash. We talked quite extensively about how you are a gaming icon to Level 5 and how that would fit Sakurai's criteria. Also, since Akihiro Hino expressed interest in seeing you participate in Smash and Level 5 has a close relationship with Nintendo, Sakurai would have an easier time inviting you to Smash compared to other third-party candidates.

We even had one third-party character that managed to participate in Smash despite not being a massive gaming icon: Bayonetta. She is proof that you don't need to be super iconic to be invited to Smash. Sakurai even called her a "realizable" choice!​

I see you remember that argument quite well. Well done.

The only part I would add to it is that Bayonetta was added because she won the Smash Ballot, so one can argue that alone was what brought her to the Smash tournament. Still, you do make a very good point regarding what Bayonetta's invitation means for future third-party candidates to be considered for Smash.

You even had a good number of fans who have been wanting you to participate in Smash for quite some time. I think you also have that supporter-part covered too.

There was also the issue of relevancy back then when your series was on hiatus, but that is no longer an issue since your series has returned full swing with the Layton's Mystery Journey series and the upcoming anime featuring it. We also already countered the claim Katrielle Layton would have the better chance because she is the new star by explaining how you have been around longer and are thus more recognizable.

In other words, your chances are looking really good right now Professor!​

Indeed, but there is one major issue that you are forgetting: competition!

Competition? With who?​

Jibanyan, the ghost cat with fire powers and the mascot of Yokai Watch.

Oh yeah, Jibanyan. His series is still around, and it seems like there are still a good number of people who want to see him fight in the upcoming Smash tournament, especially in Japan.​

Yes, Yokai Watch has become a commercial success in Japan. It also saw some success overseas as well. This makes Jibanyan my main competitor for the upcoming Smash Tournament if Sakurai were to choose a single individual to represent Level 5.

And while Bayonetta's inclusion is proof that someone like Jibanyan can be invited, Sakurai should still remember that it was because of you and your series that Level 5 and Yokai Watch managed to become as recognized as they are today.​

Indeed.

Now, considering everything we have discussed, what do you think are my new chances of appearing in this upcoming Smash tournament as of now?

I'd say you currently have a 25% chance of being invited to the upcoming Smash tournament!​

Let's find out.

*You can stop playing that puzzle music right now*

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The info below is the TL;DR version of what Professor Layton and Luke discussed

Here's some new Layton music to enjoy for the remainder of this post​

Chance: 25%

Despite being third party, Professor Layton is a modern day video game icon that has left an international legacy. While this legacy may not compare to other commonly speculated third party characters commonly speculated about, Professor Layton's series is still considered to be a huge success in the gaming world, selling 15 million units as of April 2015, seven games, a well-received movie, it's main star having several cameos in other Level 5 games, a new anime starring her daughter, two Twitter accounts, and even a crossover with Phoenix Wright. It's focus on puzzles, deep story-telling, and a visual novel-style format appealed to the casual audience that Nintendo started to focus on with the release of the Nintendo DS. These aspects are what make Professor Layton a strong candidate for being the puzzle-game rep of the current video gaming era.

Thanks to the series success, not only has it become one of Nintendo's flagships in the portable gaming industry, it also allowed Level 5 to reach the public eye and develop highly popular games like Yokai Watch. His cameos in other Level 5 game's are proof of the legacy he left to the company. Level 5 also has a very close relationship with Nintendo, and even Akihiro Hino has even expressed interest in seeing Layton in Smash Bros at one point. This would make Professor Layton easier to implement compared to other third parties.

Professor Layton also has a ton of unique moveset potential that people would not realize unless they play the Layton games themselves or do their research. He could use various elements from any of the puzzles he solved in the series. He could also use the inventions he created in the past to highlight his powerful intellect and archaeological tools and artifacts to highlight his archaeological side. Of course, some of his moves would also involve sword-fighting techniques to highlight his fencing prowess. Altogether, Layton's moveset potential would allow him to stand out as the puzzle-game rep on the roster.

What are his issues, then? The most obvious one is that he is third-party. That alone doesn't make his chances as high as a first-party candidate. Professor Layton also has some massive competition with Jibanyan for the potential Level 5 slot thanks to Yokai Watch's popularity. Relevancy may have been an issue in the past, but that's no longer a problem now that the series lives on through the Layton's Mystery Journey games.

Some will argue that his daughter, Katrielle Layton, has a better chance to be in the next Smash game compared to the Professor himself because she has taken over as the new main protagonist of the Layton games, and the upcoming anime features her as the star. However, it is important to consider that Professor Hershel Layton is still the more recognized character between the two since he has been around for much longer. Heck, he still plays a major role in Layton's Mystery Journey thanks to Katrielle's motivation of locating her father. That's additional proof he is still the most important character to the franchise.

He is also decently popular when it came to requests too, and Bayonetta's inclusion is proof that you don't need to be a massive gaming icon to be a third-party in Smash (something that many argued against Layton in the past); at the same time, this also means Jibanyan is more likely as well. Still, Layton is not a character to be underestimated.

Want: 100%

Professor Layton is my favorite video game character of all time, and my most wanted character to be playable in Smash Bros since the Smash 4 days.

The Professor Layton series is among my favorite video game franchises. It is filled with fun brain teasers and has has some of the best stories I've ever experienced from all the video games I played. The colorful and entertaining cast of characters are another reason why I adore the Layton series, and the Professor himself is no exception. I adore Professor Layton because of his many wonderful characteristics: he is smart, badass, and most of all, a true gentleman. The Professor has left many quotes that I consider to be endearing and inspirational, and he has even become one of my personal role-models. He also has a very deep and sad backstory regarding how he became the man he is now and the hardships he experienced, but we'd be going into major spoiler territory if I were to talk about that.

Anyways, I think Layton would make a ridiculously fun fighter in Smash considering how much moveset potential he has. From the inventions he made, to his fencing skills, to his archaeological tools and artifacts, to all elements from the wide array of puzzles from the series, he’d be the kind of character that would surely remind foes “of a puzzle.” You look at the professor and think, “What’s this simple gentleman going to do to me?” Suddenly, he plays with you mind as he pulls out different inventions and puzzle elements out of nowhere as you react with pure surprise.

In fact, if you are still not convinced about Layton being a Smash fighter, here's a moveset I created for him that encompasses everything I discussed regarding what he would do and how I imagine he'd play out as a Smash fighter:

Spoiler: My moveset idea for Professor Layton

Basic Animations:

Walk: Layton would walk normally like he does in the games.

Run: A basic running animation. Visually, it resembles the scenes when he chased the Black Raven in Last Specter and the moment the Giant Float is about to collapse on him in Miracle Mask. He has the same running speed as Snake.

Jump: He lunges upward in the first jump. With his second jump, he curls his body, but it doesn't give him too much vertical distance. It is very similar to Snake's jumps, but Layton's up special makes up for it.

Fall: Layton holds onto his hat with one hand while his other arm is held out, slightly bent. He has relatively fast falling speed as he is a bit of a heavy weight.

Crouch: Layton bends with one knee while one arm rests on it.

Crawl: A basic crawling animation where Layton crawls with his knees and hands.

Shield: Layton grabs his hat with one hand, while his other arm is bent and hovers over his chest.

Roll: Instead of rolling, Layton slides to the outside of the stage. When returning back, he has one hand on the ground as he bends his body forward.

Side-step: Layton grabs his hat with one hand and moves toward the back of the stage with a surprised expression while his other arm extends far to the side.

Dizzy: Layton grabs his hat with one hand and stumbles from left to right.

Sleep: Layton sits down with his legs crossed while resting his head on one of his arms.

Swimming: Layton moves his arms similar to a breast-stroke pull.

Drowning: He lowers his hat over his eyes with one of his hands, while the other arm and his legs float helplessly in the water.

Idle Animations:

-Animation 1: Layton adjusts his hat.
-Animation 2: Layton holds his hand to his chin, taking a thinking position.
-Animation 3: Layton pouts his arms and slightly nods his head.

Launching scream: Layton screams, "Uuwaaahhh." It sounds similar to the scene when he tumbles with Luke through the forest in Azran Legacy.

KO scream: Layton screams, "Huaghh." It sounds exactly like his scream when Emmy crossed his path at the beginning of Last Specter.

Star KO scream: Sounds exactly like his scream from Azran Legacy when the beam of light was killing him.

Basic attacks:

Jab: Layton delivers a small slap with his right hand while raising his pinky (supposed to be a gentleman's slap).

Double Jab: The second jab is another gentleman's slap, but he uses his left hand instead.

Triple Jab: Layton pulls out a fencing sword and uses it like he's in a fencing match. It can lead into a repetitive jab, and the final blow is the finishing fencing move that touches the opponent.

Dash Attack: Layton pulls out a metallic pipe and slashes from left tor right. The attack manner is similar to Marth's dash attack.

Tilt Attacks:

Forward Tilt: Layton holds out his magnifying glass, and the tool gives the same orange tint just like it does in the games when you find something of interest (even producing the same sound effect). The moment when the magnifying glass turns orange is when damage is delivered.

Up Tilt: Layton takes an "a-ha" stance as the iconic red exclamation mark from the games appears above his head. This exclamation mark is what deals the damage, and it is his strongest tilt attack.

Down Tilt: Layton uses an archaeological hand pick and does a hammering animation using it.

Aerial Attacks:

Neutral Aerial: Layton grabs a camera by its strap and swings it around himself.

Forward Aerial: Layton uses the same metallic pipe and moves the pipe downward. Visually, the attack resembles Layton's first strike on Descole when Layton released himself from the Fossil Glider in Azran Legacy.

Back Aerial: Keats the Puzzle Cat emerges from Layton's coat, and the cat slashes foes from behind Layton's back before returning to his coat. During this animation, Layton watches Keats with a surprised expression and quickly helps Keats return back into his coat.

Up Aerial: Layton pulls out the toy robot from Miracle Mask and holds it above his head. The toy robot then does a small, upward jump from Layton's hand while moving its arms up. This attack has a dual-damaging effect where it can potentially deal two blows to the opponent. There is a sweet-spot at the robot's arms.

Down Aerial: Layton takes a shovel and stabs it toward the ground. The attack heavily resembles Link's down aerial, even having the same meteor spike if the opponent is hit by the sweet-spot.

Grabs:

Pummel: Layton knees his opponent.

Each of Layton's throws reference various puzzles throughout the series. In each throw, he releases his opponent and changes into a thinking position. Upon releasing his opponent, the throw takes place. After the throw finishes, he looks up with a grin on his face, just like when a puzzle is correctly solved. Think of it as if Layton uses his intellectual thoughts to attack the foe. It's like Layton is playing "mind-games" with his opponents!

Forward Throw: A small toy train (as seen from a bird's eye view) appears above Layton, moves toward the opponent, and latches onto him/her. The train quickly moves slightly forward then diagonally upward before disappearing and releasing the opponent. It mimics those "drag the line" puzzles where you need to get a chain to another side, usually involving trains of some sort.

Back Throw: Three pitchers appear in front of Layton. The opponent is then thrown between the pitchers as if he/she is being poured like milk. It mimics the milk puzzle from Curious Village.

Up Throw: Three rectangular blocks push the opponent upwards, with the final block releasing the opponent high. It's a weak attack with high knockback, mimicking those "drag the blocks to get a certain piece to the other side" puzzles that are very common throughout the series.

Down Throw: A tetris-shaped block pushes the opponent downward. A second one pushes the opponent in a direction behind Layton. The last piece pushes the opponent upward. This ultimately creates a rigid U-shaped throw. It mimics those "fix the pictures" puzzles that is akin to assembling a jigsaw puzzle, but the pieces are more tetris-shaped.

Smash Attacks:

Each of these attacks involve the Azran Keystone from Azran Legacy.

Forward Smash: Layton pulls out the Azran Keystone casually holding it to the side for the charging animation. Once he finishes charging, he extends his arm holding the Keystone in front of himself. The Keystone then delivers a shockwave-like blast that deals tremendous damage to foes. The blast looks exactly the same as the one that was produced from the device in the games.

Up Smash: It plays out almost identically to the forward smash. The only difference is that Layton holds the Keystone above his head for the finishing blow, and the blast deals vertical knockback.

Down Smash: Unlike the forward and up smashes, Layton puts the Azran Keystone on the ground and holds it there for the charging animation. Once fully charged, the Keystone emits the the same blast, only this time, it covers a 360 degree radius surrounding Layton.

Specials:

Standard Special - Coin-Slot Machine Gun: Layton pulls out the same gun of the same name he created in Unwound Future. He charges it then and fires a barrage of coins. The length of time it takes to fire the coins depends on your charge time. Layton can move left and right while firing his gun, but he cannot turn around while doing so. The barrage of coins has the same effect as firing multiple, small shots from the Super Scope, but unlike the Super Scope, you can combo into a grab by moving toward the foe as you fire coins to keep him/her stunned. The gun can fire for up to five seconds at most. You can't use it right away after the gun finishes firing because the next Layton uses the attack, he will dump a bag of coins to prepare for the next attack. It takes about one second for Layton to dump coins. Once he finishes doing so, you can charge and fire again.

Side Special - Hamster Attack: Layton throws an apple, and if it hits someone, it does a small amount of damage. If he uses the side special again, he will throw the hamster this time, and it will quickly run towards the apple. As the hamster runs, it can climb up walls similar to the Bombchu, and it can damage anyone in its path with small damage. Once it reaches the apple, the hamster eats it. If an opponent is right next to an apple, he/she will be trapped by the hamster as it eats the apple and wrack up damage with each bite. Basically, the hamster is biting the opponent's feet in the process. With the final bite, the opponent is launched with decent knock back.

Up Special - Globe Glider: Layton uses the Globe Glider he built from Curious Village. When utilizing it, he faces towards his front. The glider can travel very high and is easy to maneuver, similar to Snake and ROB's up specials. This attack makes up for Layton's low second jump, repeating a similar deal to Snake's recovery. The glider can also disrupt an opponent's up-special when it makes contact, but in doing so, the glider will lose control for a few seconds before Layton is forced to dislodge himself. This references the scene when the glider slightly touches Don Paolo's helicopter in Curious Village, disrupting it to the point Don Paolo is forced to flee. When his up special finishes, Layton is not rendered helpless.

Down Special - Stone Catapult: Layton pulls out the catapult he uses to take down Descole in Last Specter, but it has been scaled down to closely match his size. With two stones in the slinger, he charges the catapult for the first half of the attack when holding the C-stick down, and after releasing it, he will throw the two stones into the air with the help of the catapult. You can charge the catapult so that two stones can be launched farther. The farther the stones are launched, the more knock back and damage they deal. The stones deal more damage if they hit a foe that is in the air.

Final Smash:

Deduction: A cinematic Final Smash that references the most iconic cutscene in every Layton game where the Professor identifies who the real culprit behind the crime was.

The Final Smash begins with Layton taking a thinking stance and saying, "Hmmm." A glint appears in front of Layton and covers a small yet decent range in front of him. If anyone is caught within the glint's range, the screen turns white.

The scene then changes to show several people, including the culprit, sitting around a table in an old-fashioned living room, with Layton standing behind them. The people are all shadowed save for the the opponent that was caught by the glint. While taking his classic thinking stance, Layton walks around the room and says, "Someone here was the mastermind behind this awful scheme." He then looks forward the opponent and does his signature point at him/her, telling the foe, "And that person was you!" At that moment, the opponent takes on a funny stunned animation, indicating their shock at being caught. The scene then returns to the battle, only this time, the caught foe is delivered a large amount of damage and knockback. That attack can KO as early as 50%.

If Layton caught two or more foes, the scene plays out like it normally does. The only difference is that Layton uses plural nouns at the respective moments. While walking around and thinking, he says "some people" instead of "someone," and when deducing the culprit, he says "those people" instead of "that person."

I can also imagine a nice Easter Egg where all the shadowed people are individuals that appeared in past Layton games.

Taunts:

Up Taunt: Layton adjusts his hat, then pouts his arms. As he pouts his arms, he says, "Every puzzle has an answer."

Side Taunt: Layton tips his hat forward and says, "A remarkable move!"

Down Taunt: Layton pulls out a cup of tea and drinks it.

Victory Animations:

The victory melody would be a more melodic version of the "Puzzle Solved" soundbite, heard in the video brought up with the first animation.

Animation 1: Layton puts his hand on his chin, closes his eyes and looks down, then looks back up at the camera. He follows with his signature point and says, "I've found the solution!" This entire animation plays out exactly like the "Puzzle Solved "bit after solving a puzzle. Here's a video for reference:

Remove the black stills that interrupt at the different intervals to make the whole animation more fluid, and that's how it would likely play out in Smash.

Animation 2: Layton adjusts his hat and says "A true gentleman leaves no puzzle unsolved." He finishes with a pout while smiling at the camera.

Animation 3: Layton brushes both arms of his coat as if he is removing dust. As he does so, he states, "That was quite the riveting match!" He then adjusts his coat by putting both hands on the zipper sides to tuck his coat up.

Losing Animation: A basic losing animation that involves Layton clapping towards his left side while holding a smile on his face.

Phew, that was a lot I wrote down. I think you can imagine how much this character means to me after reading through this post. The day Professor Layton is revealed for Smash will definitely go down as one of the happiest days in my life if it actually happens, and it's something I still hope for.

I've decided that I won't change my chance and want scores for Layton either.

To reiterate what I think about his chances (still 25%):

• Though not as iconic as the likes of Megaman, Pac-Man, Sonic, or the other big name third parties in Smash Ultimate, Professor Layton does have a a degree of fame in video games that gives him a decent resume in gaming history. He is a recognizable face when it comes to puzzle games and the visual novel genre, the casual elements his games provide was a reason why his series was especially successful in the DS-era (a time when Nintendo wanted to appeal more to the casual audience), has launched two Twitter accounts, had a crossover with the Ace Attorney series, had a successful movie and now an anime, and his series has sold about 15 million units as of April 2015, and he has made cameos in other Level 5 games.
• Most importantly, it is because of the Layton series success that Level 5 managed to become the successful video game company it is today. Professor Layton is to Level 5 what Megaman and Pac-man are to their respective video game companies. Heck, the cameos he has made in other Level 5 games is proof of how important he is to Level 5.
• His moveset would most likely involve the puzzles he has solved in the series or other puzzle-related elements like the magnifying glass or the hint coins, as well as the inventions he has made using his strong intellect. He could also use archaeological tools and artifacts to reference the fact he is an archaeologist. Some, but not all moves, could also highlight his fencing capabilities. Basically, Layton would captilize himself as a puzzle-game rep with his moveset. Layton is the kind of character Sakurai would implement for the surprise factor: a kind of character who doesn't look a fighter but can still have a workable moveset (look at characters like Wii Fit Trainer and the Villager for proof).
• He has decent Smash popularity to him, especially in Europe. Even Level 5's CEO expressed interest in seeing Professor Layton in Smash.
• His biggest issue that holds him back is the fact he is a third party character. With the Smash Ultimate base roster looking to have much less newcomers compared to past Smash installments, it seems likely there won't be as many third party newcomers in the base roster. This means Layton will have to compete with more popular third party choices.
• Jibanyan is the closest competitor that Professor Layton has when it comes to who could represent Level 5, namely that Jibanyan is a more requested in Japan than Layton is. However, I believe Layton still has the edge over Jibanyan because Layton has done much more for Level 5 than the fiery ghost cat, not to mention Yokai Watch has now becoming a dying franchise as was mentioned on Jibanyan's day.

To reiterate why I want him in Smash (still 100%);

• He is my favorite video game character of all time. He is a great lead character with a captivating personality and a deep, tragic, and well-written backstory.
• I'm a huge fan of the Layton series for its rich, engaging stories and its fun brain teasers, and I'd love to see it have Smash representation.
• I think Professor Layton would make the perfect puzzle game rep. His moveset could encompass various elements from the puzzles he has solved, the inventions he created to reference his powerful intellect, and archaeological elements to reference his expertise in archaeology. He would surely "remind you of a puzzle" when he fights. My moveset idea that I provided in the quote above can give you an idea how I imagine he'd play out in Smash.

I'll post my scores for Skull Kids, the predictions for tomorrow, and my nominations later.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Professor Layton:

Chance: 15%
The lower newcomer total ultimately drives down every character's chance score, so even at 15%, I'd say he's not doing too bad for a third-party candidate. He doesn't have quite the clout as other guest characters do, but he does have a solid series that has seen its share of games, movies, etc. He's relatively popular but does face some fierce competition from all sides.

Want: 75%
He has quite a bit to work from to make him a stand-out gimmick character, though balancing puzzle/logic mechanics into a fast-paced action fighting game will be a bit tricky. I've always wanted St. Mystere to be a stage, even if he doesn't make a playable role. The atmosphere would be quite nice and the series has a pretty kickin' soundtrack.

-----

Skull Kid:

Chance: 5%
One-off Zelda characters don't fare too well as far as Smash candidacy goes, and Skull Kid, while popular, still has some strong competition. We might not get a Zelda newcomer at all even, Link was just reworked making him "new enough" and Young Link is returning which boosts up the series's number. We haven't seen his Smash 4 Assist Trophy, but Isaac proves that could mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. We also have not seen Young Link's Final Smash, and I have a very strong sinking feeling Skull Kid may be tied to that (hence his AT absence).

Want: 40%
Majora's Mask is one of my favorites in the series, but I just don't seen Skull Kid having much to truly stand out. There are other one-off characters from the series I would enjoy playing as much more.

 

[Cosmic77]

We also have not seen Young Link's Final Smash, and I have a very strong sinking feeling Skull Kid may be tied to that (hence his AT absence).

Y'know, I never even thought of that before, and now that you brought it up, that does make a lot of sense. Assuming Young Link doesn't get the standard Triforce Slash, a Final Smash inspired from Majora's Mask would probably be the most likely outcome.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Layton getting chosen for Smash Ultimate ultimately depends on how he did in the Smash Ballot. Sakurai will likely use the poll for reference to see which third-party candidates he could add. Fortunately, I think Layton likely ranked in the top 5, at least in the region of Europe. Layton back in Smash 4 speculation was among the most wanted newcomers, going as far being in the top 10 in a VGtribune poll that was sent to Sakurai during the Smash 4 project plan. I feel very confident that Layton ranked high in the ballot, due to the franchise’s immense popularity in Europe.

Because of his potentially high ballot rank in Europe, I think Sakurai will consider Layton for playability. In terms of moveset potential, he already has a high amount for Sakurai to dance his mind around with, basing on Layton’s gentlemanly characterization and puzzle gameplay elements. Professor Layton is one of the few franchises that helped the DS surge in popularity when the first three games came out, giving Layton the game history needed to qualify for Smash. One of the biggest Japanese third party companies ever, Level-5, has had a strong relationship with Nintendo for so many years ever since the first Layton game came out, with Nintendo helping out on localization and marketing. The relationship is so strong that I feel Level-5 and Nintendo would definitely agree on the idea of the professor being playable in Smash. Sakurai and Akihiro were at one point together in a gaming talk show in 2008. One of the show moderators said that he wanted him in Smash with his fencing sword, with Sakurai and the audience responding with a positive laugh.

It certainly shows that Sakurai knows about the franchise and Level-5 in general, and the familiarity brings a nice contribution to Layton’s chances. To note a recent interview, Hino is definitely open for collaborations when he was asked about crossovers with the Layton franchise. This is VERY true, especially with Level- 5’s other franchises like Youkai Watch, which that had a collaboration movie with Kitaro (the most well known, influential manga in Japan), crossed with Final Fantasy in YW3 and FFXIV, and had multiple anime crossovers with the YW mobile game. Although the degree of crossovers Layton had goes as far as Phoenix Wright, Level-5’s recent collaborations almost assures that the potential negotiations for Layton would go VERY smoothly.

What about Professor Layton's move-set potential? While it is true that the Layton games does not involve much combat, there are times in the game when Layton needs to use combat when it is absolutely necessary. Sakurai could definitely bring up his fencing sword for his main use of combat.

In fencing, there are a lot of defensive and counter strategies involved. Each of the players concentrate hard to strike the opponent’s target area without leaving themselves open to hitting. This can translate to his being a more defensive character that has a variety of ways to counter the opponent. Layton is known to think and solve puzzles in as many ways as he can, so it certainly stays true to his character while keeping him interesting and making him stand out from other characters currently in the game. He is also known to be a skilled craftsman, from creating a slot machine gun, to a catapult, to a hang glider. This weapons and tools provide a plethora of defensive strategies that would further distinguish Layton from other characters, making him a really good fit for Smash Ultimate.

I have seen many speculators point out that Layton as not being a huge enough gaming icon as an obstacle. I do not see "third-parties" being huge icons being an obstacle for Layton. What Sakurai sees as icons may not match what fans perceive to be. Sakurai thought Bayonetta was pretty significant in the action/hack & slash genre in this Famitsu column:

"When you talk about stylish action games, Bayonetta’s the name that always comes up. But, I don’t think there’s been a game that’s surpassed Bayonetta yet, though."

When Bayonetta was added as Smash 4 DLC years later after the post-Bayonetta column, the issue of her being a huge gaming icon as Cloud, Ryu, Mega Man, and Pac-Man did not impede her into becoming a character. What Sakurai considers as icons is not to the same degree as fans, with him looking into recent franchises that defined genres. Professor Layton is a recent, defining third-party franchise of the DS and 3DS era with 15 million copies sold as of 2013 for the puzzle genre. So Layton meets the qualifications as an icon for the genre he belongs to.

That being said, there is one tiny dilemma that I can see happening with these negotiations, that being Level-5 wanting the company to add a Youkai Watch character instead. But at this point, I ultimately feel Layton will be the one chosen, especially when the Layton franchise has seen a recent major resurgence and focus on the franchise in the form of Lady Layton's game/anime, with Professor Layton being a globally popular, uniquely Japanese franchise that gained international recognition in the gaming community. The only legitimate issue against his inclusion is the possibility of Sakurai limiting the number of potential 3rd party newcomers coming from unrepresented companies he could negotiate with such as Level-5, pouring most of his resources on making every veteran return for Smash Ultimate, sticking to Konami, SEGA, Capcom, Square Enix, and Namco to add third party characters from to save time/money. But with Level-5's relationship with Nintendo, I believe they will be able to make an open compromise that allows Layton in Smash and also giving benefits for both companies.

Because of Layton’s potentially high demand in Europe, the legacy he carried in the DS era, the global popularity the Layton franchise has, his distinct move-set potential, and the likeliness that Nintendo/Level-5 would agree on the idea of Layton being in Smash, it lines up to him being one of the most likely third party candidates for Smash Ultimate.

--------

If there is one single Nintendo title I never stop seeing constant references of, it would be The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask. I have seen Majora’s Mask through countdown gifs on the internet, references in cartoons, endless merchandise, fan-videos, and a number of other things that makes the game a seriously common presence in video game pop culture. Majora’s Mask is considered a classic by a large number of hardcore Zelda fans for its dark story, tone, and memorable characters. The game was so popular, a large number of fans created a campaign called Operation Moonfall to get a Majora’s Mask remake on the Nintendo 3DS after the release of Ocarina of Time 3D.

The game’s massive popularity explains why Skull Kid has been the most requested Zelda newcomer for a long period of time since Brawl. He was so popular at the time of Brawl that a number of mods and Smash fan renders were made for the character. At the time of Smash 4, he was the most voted newcomer in a VGTribune poll sent to Sakurai during the game’s project proposal. With Skull Kid maintaining his status as one of the most requested Smash newcomers of all time, it may finally be his time to get in as a playable character, with ballot popularity likely being a big factor for many inclusions in Smash Ultimate this time around.

Although Skull Kid does not have many statements said by Sakurai that could point towards his inclusion, he does have a similar obstacle and many pros that parallel to Geno in some ways. One major positive aside from his popularity that he has is moveset potential. I personally feel Skull Kid's mischievous character being able to utilize his mask and ocarina for unleashing bizarre dark powers makes him unlike any other character currently in Smash Bros, which could make him an extremely enticing character to implement for Sakurai this time around. Even as non-Zelda fan that only played a bit of Majora's Mask on the Wii Virtual Console, I could easily see his distinct characteristics and the moveset potential he provides as a fighter.

The only question that remains is if Sakurai would see the long-time high popularity being sufficing enough to seriously consider Skull Kid for playability. I do think Sakurai could change his mind on him this time around. I feel fan demand will help Sakurai view many newcomers from a different, open perspective and make exceptions for negatives like Geno’s one-time status, Ridley’s possibly difficult implementation in Smash, and K. Rool’s lack of a major role in recent Donkey Kong Country games. Skull Kid’s demand can easily have Sakurai forgive his negative having only one major role in one Zelda title. This is quite possibly the best time Skull Kid can get in Smash if ballot popularity is a major factor for a notable portion of the newcomer pool.

-------------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[GoodGrief741]

Skull Kid
Chance: 18%
He’s popular, he’s iconic, he’s got everything going for him, but we still don’t know what Sakurai’s stance is on one-offs, and I don’t think he’ll put more work on the Zelda crew than what he already has.
Want: 90%
Would be 100 but I want Midna more.

Layton
Chance: Counting DLC? 30% Without DLC 6%
Level-5 is one of the few Japanese third party studios without a character in Smash yet. Layton is iconic, massively successful and recognizable, and has definitely earned his part of video game and Nintendo history. Of course, there are likely other priorities (Belmont, Banjo, Geno), and they might make the stupid decision to put Jibanyan instead of him. That said, if DLC is anything like last time, he’s got good chances.
Want 100%
I wish we’d get more of his games instead of what we’re getting nowadays.

Nominations Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Skull Kid
Chance: 20%
He probably got lots of votes, but as I said before, we already have three Links. He's the best Zelda character, why would we need any others?

Want: 5%
2spooky4me

Layton
Chance: 5%
Did he die or something? He got replaced by some lady.

Want: 100%
I've only played Unwound Future but I loved it so much that Layton is one of my favorite characters now.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5;

 

[GoodGrief741]

Skull Kid
Chance: 20%
He probably got lots of votes, but as I said before, we already have three Links. He's the best Zelda character, why would we need any others?

Want: 5%
2spooky4me

Layton
Chance: 5%
Did he die or something? He got replaced by some lady.

Want: 100%
I've only played Unwound Future but I loved it so much that Layton is one of my favorite characters now.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5;

How does having three Links affect Skull Kid’s chances?