Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Gerrothorax]

Noms:
Female announcer x5

There is no reason to nominate this. We already know that the previous announcer is returning.
https://twitter.com/XanderMobusVO/status/1006652458104307714

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Giving Excitebiker and Mach Rider similar chance scores:8.76%
With Takamaru being an Assist Trophy yet again (Profound Sadness), probably these might be the new retro candidates to discuss. It seems both of them were considered back in the days of Melee, but neither really have made much of an impact on Sakurai to see as extremely worthwhile additions. Mach Rider may not really have much going for them these days, but Excitebike still pops up in the odd cameo from time to time like in Mario Kart 8.

The main question would be how one would handle how their motorbikes play into Smash Bros, since they're quite central to both characters. Mach Rider could have turrets and machine guns, so they could play as a long-range and high-speed character, but sucks at close range combat and is incredibly heavy. Looking over to a Dream Smasher article, Excitebiker could use various motorcycle tricks to make something interesting for a moveset.

Want: 25%
Neither of them are exactly my most wanted Retro character or are they someone I'd actively push for as Smashers, but I think either one of them could be interesting if they manage to make use of their bikes in more unique ways than Wario currently does.

Abstaining on Prince Sable since I'm not exactly familiar with him.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Excitebiker
Chance: 10% - I don’t think we’re very likely to get a retro this time around, but Excitebiker does appear to be the most likely pick.
Want: 60%

Mach Rider
Chance: 5% - His game wasn’t nearly as successful as excitebike, and he has all the same problems going for him.
Want: 50%

The prince of Sable
Chance: 1% - Easily one of the most obscure Nintendo protagonists ever made. He has all the same obstacles that Takamaru had and more.
Want: 90%

 

[skylanders fan]

all 3 getting 25% just don't think we will see a retro rep in the base game as it looks to be more fanservice based roster

Isabelle: 2%
Shadow: 8%
Funky Kong: 35%
Octolings: 5%
nominating skull kid x5

 

[Wyoming]

There is no reason to nominate this. We already know that the previous announcer is returning.
https://twitter.com/XanderMobusVO/status/1006652458104307714

It's technically still possible we get an option for it.

 

[DaUsername]

All three
Chance: 15%
I could honestly see us not even getting a "retro character" this time, and if we do, it probably won't be any of these guys.
Excited Biker want: 5%
I've been that interested in this character, I'm not sure how his moveset would work.
Mach Rider want: 25%
The only moveset I can think of for this character is "Captain Falcon with Wario's Side-B", which would actually be pretty cool.
Sable want: 30%
He seems like he would have some interesting gimmicks.

Predictions
Isabelle: 35%
Shadow : 35%
Funky Kong: 30%
Octoling: 20%
Noms: All stages return x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Prince Sable
Chance- 10%
I see our staple retro newcomer may not happen this game, unless its a really popular one. Unfortunately, Prince Sable is quite obscure. I think he'll stay an AT this time around.

Want- 5%
It would be cool seeing a character that can turn into a snake and frog, but Im not too interested. Id prefer other retros.

Mach Rider
Chance- 15%
He was apparently considered once upon a time, but he's lost to time. Not as much as Prince, but I think if were going to get a retro character, it will be an extremely popular one.

Want-35%
He could be interesting, with the motorcycle moveset. I like retros, but I have no one in particular I really want in this game..

Excite Biker
Chance- 35%
The most recognizable of the bunch. He was considered once, which also helps him. However, I am still a little doubtful.

Want-35%
See Mach Rider want.

Scorpion X 1
Thwomp X 4

 

[WaddleMatt]

Prince Sable: Double Abstain.

Mach Rider: Chance: 5% - I feel EciteBiker would be chosen over. Want: 1% - I don't care really.

ExciteBiker: Chance: 10% - Recognisable sure, but slots are limited. Want: 1% - Same as above.

Nominations: Rhythm/Tap Trial Girl x 5

 

[StrangeMann]

Prince Sable
Chance: 5%
Want: 80%

Mach Rider
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

Excitebiker
Chance: 30%
Want: 50%

 

[Deleted member]

There is no reason to nominate this. We already know that the previous announcer is returning.
https://twitter.com/XanderMobusVO/status/1006652458104307714

Doesn't disconfirm the possibility to have a female alternative.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Doesn't disconfirm the possibility to have a female alternative.

It makes no sense to hire two voice actors for a job that one can do. Nintendo would be paying double for no good reason, and it's a disservice to Xander.

It's not happening.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining today.

Nominations
Ninten x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just as a heads up, to catch up on calcs im gonna extend this day a bit to around 4 pm EDT.

 

[papagenos]

Excitebiker
Chance: 15% - i just dont see it happening hes a tough one to make a moveset for
Want: 60% - i dig excite bike though he'd need a cool playstyle i cant envision for me to really want him

Mach Rider
Chance: 90% - im gonna go out on a very long limb here and saying i'm actually thinking mach rider is in. that whole article about sakurai buying the "vifam robot" toy for its gun to model some upcoming game, the fact takamaru is deconfirmed and we have no clear front runner for retro rep, and that sakurai has in the past stated he's considered making mach rider playable. Most people were guessing Elma's skell is what the robots gun was being used to model for but after mach rider was brought to my attention I really think its mach rider.

just look at the figures gun and mach riders from the game, that guns a pretty good match for mach riders (which would potentially be updated anyway) so this gun could fit here. i also dont think sakurai would need a gun to model Elmas skell as it would likely just be a final smash / cut scene type situation and really when it comes to using models to make characters its about testing how their movement will look. sakurai isnt the one programing the 3D models he uses the figures to visualize how a character moves around and I dont see him needing a gun like this for the skell, but if a character was always holding it he'd need to be able to model how they look when running, jumping, grabbing etc... its a visionary designer tool not a computer programing tool. sakurai isnt getting a toy for every item in the game to 3D model it for instance, thats unnecessary, its about being able to see if an idea for a characters movements will physically work and i can think of no other fighter who would carry around a long barreled gun like this.

Mach Rider / The Vifam toy figure / Elmas Skell

I really think that gun fits Mach Rider and not the Skell.

Want: 75% - hes cool, i own the game but it was never a favorite of mine, and if the game got revived like kid icarus did it could potentially be a very cool nintendo franchise. honestly i guess i'd just want him in more than anything because i feel im in a huge minority of people who think he has a chance and i'm gonna hold up the flag for him here as i dont just think hes possible, but i think hes in, and it would be cool to be right about that.

The prince of Sable
Chance: 5% - unlikely I just dont see it happening
Want: 60% - hes cool i love links awakening would gladly have him in if it somehow happened

 

[YoshiandToad]

Retros?

Chance: 1% for Sable and Mach, 5% for Excitebiker
With a limited roster of newcomers, frankly why bother with all of these not very famous retro characters?

Takamaru and Balloon Fighter were the obvious popular choices, but with the former stuck as an assist and the former incorporated into Villager's moveset, I really can't see even Excitebiker making it and he's easily the most famous of these three.

Want: 0%
Ok, honestly Sable would be okay, but with so few spaces available, and an emphasis on fanservice, I don't think any of these three would work for me over more frequent and modern characters.

Although honestly outside Balloon Fight, Duck Hunt and at the time; Kid Icarus, I cared very little for retro one offs. Maybe Bubbles from Clu Clu Land but only because a momentum moveset interests me.

Balloon Fighter doesn't have much outside what Villager took, and Tingle is basically a superior version of him with more to contribute besides.

Takamaru's gimmick of being a Samurai didn't really excite me at all, and his one neat ability to go invisible brings back horrific memories of Melee's invisible item event where most people ended up killing themselves accidentally instead.

Excitebiker deserves a stage and an assist in my eyes, but that's about it.

Nominations:
Slippy X 5

 

[Organization XIII]

Takamaru's gimmick of being a Samurai didn't really excite me at all, and his one neat ability to go invisible brings back horrific memories of Melee's invisible item event where most people ended up killing themselves accidentally instead.

I mean being a samurai isn't a gimmick. It's what he is, I mean that's like saying Marth being a prince is his gimmick. I guess you could say using a sword draw style along with a host of eastern throwing weapons would be his gimmick but it feels more like he is a fighter without a gimmick like most newcomers before Smash 4.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I mean being a samurai isn't a gimmick. It's what he is, I mean that's like saying Marth being a prince is his gimmick. I guess you could say using a sword draw style along with a host of eastern throwing weapons would be his gimmick but it feels more like he is a fighter without a gimmick like most newcomers before Smash 4.

That's fair. Maybe niche or schtick would have been a better word to describe it than gimmick.

A swordsman with projectiles still doesn't excite me when we got three guys(notably the same soul) fulfilling that role already though;

 

[Organization XIII]

That's fair. Maybe niche or schtick would have been a better word to describe it than gimmick.

A swordsman with projectiles still doesn't excite me when we got three guys(notably the same soul) fulfilling that role already though;

I had no problem with him not exciting you mate just didn't really think gimmick is an appropriate way to describe Takamaru. He would be insanely unique in comparison to Link even if they sound similar but I can understand if the initial idea doesn't do much for you.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK so last minute stuff has caused me to fall behind on calcs. Nothing serious, just had to pick someone up long story. Today we got Isabelle, Shadow, Octolings, and Funky Kong. Tomorrow is Bandanna Dee and Elma.

 

[Slyshock]

Abstaining from Shadow, Funky Kong and Octolings. They all fall into the same unknown boat, which would make coming up with scores difficult. For what it's worth, I wouldn't consider any more likely than not.

Isabelle

Chance: 95%
95% is the maximum I'm willing to give for any character, since no matter how obvious it's always possible to be blindsided by Sakurai.

Last time around I gave Isabelle a 66% chance of being in. In hindsight, I drastically underrated her. New Leaf steered Animal Crossing towards becoming one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, with Isabelle in the captain's seat. There is absolutely nothing she doesn't have; Relevance, recognition, popularity, moveset potential, a bright future. If I were a gambler, I'd take out a loan and put it all on Isabelle being playable in Ultimate. Even if I won that bet, the odds of it happening are so high that they might actually somehow be greater than 1:1 and I'd end up losing money for calling it.

Despite Ultimate's supposed smaller amount of newcomers, Isabelle is enough of a phenomenon that I'd believe she'd get added even if there was only one spot left. Need a character who'll make gamers happy? Add Isabelle. Need a character who'll be good for marketing? Add Isabelle. Need a character with a unique style? Add Isabelle. Need a character who can be made into an easy Echo? Add Isabelle. It's impossible to know how well she performed on the ballot, but she's one of the few characters who honestly wouldn't need it to prove how beloved she is. Sakurai himself went so far as to make her both an assist trophy and a costume. While that may not have been enough for Takamaru, Isabelle has none of the drawbacks he did.

Animal Crossing is a top 10 bestselling franchise for Nintendo. New Leaf makes the list of top 10 bestselling 3DS games, below only Mario and Pokémon. Notably, it outsells Smash 3DS. Both Wild World and New Leaf are among the top 50 bestselling Nintendo games. Isabelle herself has received plenty of merchandise, which would only be produced in large numbers if there was plenty of demand for it. She's been used in advertising for products outside of her home franchise, another indicator of her success. Nintendo even saw fit to sneak her into Mario Kart 8 of all things, one of only 4 guest characters in Mario Kart history (counting ROB) and the only one of those 4 not yet playable in Smash.

Hardcore Smash speculators underestimated Daisy because they've historically ignored the casual gaming vote, and Isabelle is the undisputed queen of casual Nintendo. Being the sole face of megahit Animal Crossing should be enough to attest to that. Circumstantially, most everyone I know who I'd identify as a lighter fan of Nintendo and gaming enjoys Animal Crossing. Just for fun, let's compare Isabelle's popularity with other notable Nintendo girls by seeing whose tag is most popular over at the Japanese art site Pixiv. Specifically we'll look at Daisy, who is confirmed to be a newcomer in Ultimate, and Ashley, who has been seen as increasingly likely due to her overwhelming Japanese support.

At the time of this writing, デイジー姫 (Princess Daisy) has received 1609 illustrations. This is after the Ultimate confirmation art boom. Daisy is 29 years old.
アシュリー (ashley) has received 2674 illustrations. This count is actually inaccurate since Ashley shares the tag with similarly named characters, but since the Wario one makes up most of them we'll say that she's still got well over 2000. Ashley is 13 and a half years old.
しずえ (shizue) has received 3655 illustrations. Just in case you think that's for the wrong reasons, only 12% of that is R-18 while the previous two characters both clock in at 18%. Isabelle is 6 years old.
Here's one last bonus: むらびと (murabito) has received 1245 illustrations. The assistant has surpassed the master.

Despite all this, people have come up with arguments against Isabelle's inclusion. The most popular few seem to be that Isabelle is pacifistic, that she already does a fine job being an assistant in the background, and that Animal Crossing is already perfectly represented in Smash with just Villager.

The pacifist claim has two problems. One, she's not actually a pacifist; She doesn't like confrontations, but when you instruct her to deal with a troublesome townie she'll buckle down and do it. Furthermore, she has absolutely no qualms about throwing bombs at people in Mario Kart. Two, when she says she doesn't like "fighting" she clearly means that she doesn't like divisive arguing. If you saw the very first fight in Subspace Emissary, Mario and Kirby duel. They're not out for blood, it's just a friendly bit of sparring where the loser is immediately restored to full strength. When any given match of Smash is finished, the losers clap for the winner. Canonically speaking, Smash is a friendly game respectfully enjoyed by all parties, the exact sort of community event Isabelle would love to take part in. In fact, Mario Kart is considerably more of a heartbreaker; Just as violent, but last place is always heartbroken.

As for Isabelle shying away from the spotlight in favor of background roles, it's simply not true. The only one Isabelle is subservient to is the mayor, and only in matters of management. She doesn't take a backseat to anyone else, and in fact enjoys a position of power over the entire village. Whenever a festival needs to be hosted, Isabelle more often than not will be the one pulling the strings. Speaking of festivals, Isabelle was also a playable character in Amiibo Festival. She wasn't less than Villager or the others, but a competitor on equal footing. When it came time to join Mario Kart, Isabelle didn't arrive as an item or a track element; She came as a full-fledged racer, much like how she'll come as a fighter in Ultimate.

But what about Animal Crossing's current representation in Smash? Isn't Villager enough to properly convey what the franchise is all about?
To properly answer that question, I'd like to take you on a tour I've affectionately dubbed "Ms. Isabelle's Wild Ride".

Our first stop will be looking through all Animal Crossing games made since Isabelle's creation. Let's see if we can spot any common themes.

Isabelle's right up front, eh? She plays the biggest role of any NPC in the game, so it makes sense. For comparison though, Tom Nook didn't make the cover of an Animal Crossing game until City Folk.
New Leaf remains as the most recent mainline title, but what about the spinoffs?

Hey now, she's in two places here! Interesting how she of all characters is chosen to advertise that amiibo card, isn't it?

By far the most prominent on the cover, front and center.

They only had room to fit two characters, and of course made sure that Isabelle was one of them.
So she's been prominently featured in every game for as long as she's been a character. What of it? Animal Crossing has a large recurring cast.
We'll swing over to the official Twitter account and see what they have to say about all this.

Well, that's odd. Isabelle is more visible than the very franchise she's supposed to be promoting!
What about the official website? Surely Isabelle won't be so prominent there!

Oh.
Well, what about the official website's browser icon? Now THIS should be obvious. It's got to be the furniture leaf, right? The one that's represented the series since it began, the one that represents the serene nature of the village, growing it with love, and designing a happy home for yourself? What could possibly be considered more emblematic of Animal Crossing than that?

And with that, Ms. Isabelle's Wild Ride comes to its end, at least until the next piece of media even tangentially related to Animal Crossing comes out and inevitably has her face plastered all over it.

Isabelle IS Animal Crossing, and Animal Crossing is Isabelle. Without Isabelle holding the most prestigious and visible role a Smash character can have, that of a playable fighter, Animal Crossing can't possibly be accurately represented.

Want: 80%
The canonization of the Echo does little to alter her odds of being derivative; Even before the term "Echo Fighter" was coined, clones and semiclones had always been a factor in Smash. That being said, I don't believe she'll be an Echo. She's such a clear choice that she must've been among the first to cross Sakurai's mind, and she's big enough to put in the extra effort for. Several Animal Crossing staples were left out of Villager's moveset, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that this was deliberately done so that there'd be room for another character from the series in the future.

Despite not believing that it'll happen, the possibility of Isabelle being reduced to an Echo concerns me enough to slightly temper my expectations. With all she has going for her, it'd be a waste to bin it all in favor of a copy. I question if simple animation changes would be enough to properly convey her personality. Even still, I'd prefer her as an alternative to Villager.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Isabelle
Chance - 75%
This is very much based on how I feel exactly in this moment because I originally was certain of her, then echo fighters were a thing, then I realized she's not quite a 1:1 with villager and she'd also have to use attacks that might not fit her. And then there's Sakurai's comment about Zelda not being a fighter in BOTW. Basically she's likely for a lot of reasons but I think is far from a shoo-in. When I see how many people assume she'll be in I just think that not everything/everyone needs to be represented with a fighter. She's still in my top 10 most likely newcomers!

Want - 50%
Idk anymore. As an original character she could be really interesting but as an echo? Dissapointing. So right in the middle because I'm not sure.

All the other possible echoes - 25%
I think they all could happen. Echoes are going to be hard to guess if Daisy is anything to base them off of.

 

[NintenRob]

Ooo boy. This is a big day

Isabelle
Chance 25%
Let me start by saying ISABELLE WOULD NOT BE AN ECHO. She could be a clone but not an echo. Echo share skeletons with their original counterpart, and most move animations too. Isabelle is too tall to do this with Villager. However she is still an incredibly prominent Animal Crossing character. But space is limited and she doesn't exactly scream moveset potential
Want:60%
Sure. As I said, she's very prominent so she's more than earned it in my books, but I'd rather others first

Shadow
Chance: 3% Want 0%
I'll believe it when I see it. Until then I'm firm believer no third party characters should get a second character. That includes echoes. And if we do, all of them should get an echo. Third parties should be treated on equal footing

Octolings
Chance 10%
I'm leaning towards this being too late. It probably wouldn't take much work but we don't even have any Splatoon 2 hair styles
Want 70%
As echoes, they just make sense. But I kinda hate the default boy

Funky Kong
Chance 20%
He'd obviously have to be an Echo. But Tropical Freeze Switch is way too new and before than I don't think he'd be prominent enough

Prediction
Bandanna Dee 54%
and Elma 42%

Nominate
Parabo and Satebo x1
All stages returning x4

 

[-crump-]

Isabelle
Chance: 68%
Until such time as she is shown popping out one of those damned Assist Trophies, I will continue to consider her one of the most likely newcomer choices. She has a lot in her favor.
-Isabelle is, for all intents and purposes, the mascot of AC. She appears in every piece of Animal Crossing media, has a substantial role in everything past New Leaf, and even appeared in Mario Kart alongside the Villager. In fact, I would go as far as to say she’s become a main mascot of Nintendo in general.
-Isabelle is also incredibly popular in all regions. Since her first appearance in New Leaf she’s been universally loved.
-The Animal Crossing franchise is one of the core Nintendo series and could absolutely do with a second series rep. With Nook out, Isabelle (and possibly K.K.) are the only characters who are big enough to fill the role.

The only thing that makes me nervous is the fact that she appeared as an Assist in the past, which seems like a tough hole to dig your way out of. If Mac can do it, though, I feel fairly confident Isabelle can as well, seeing how prominent she is.

Want: 100%
Animal Crossing has been one of my favorite series for such a long time, and Isabelle has charmed her way so far into my heart I think she’s permenately trapped there. I would absolutely love to see her on the playable roster of the biggest Nintendo crossover ever. Additionally, the idea of a “clumsy fighter” who accidently winds up damaging her foes in battle is really appealing to me.
On a even more superficial level, I would love a second AC character, because I want to rep the franchise, but I don’t find Villager fun to play at all.

Octolings
Chance: 35%
If Echos are gonna be a continued thing this seems like a likely choice. Splatoon is a big enough hitter to get two characters, and considering Octolings are both popular and easy to create, I think they have a pretty good chance as a last minute pick, similar to Roy in Melee. Like I’ve said numerous times before though, I don’t think Sakurai is gonna throw Echo fighters around left and right.

Want: 40%
I like their design (especially Agent 8), and since a clone never hurts anybody, I would welcome them. I don’t see it as a necessity, though, and it’s not high on my want list.

Funky Kong
Chance: 10%
I think the whole “New Funky Mode” thing was way too recent to cause any significant boost in chance. It’s full-on clone or bust for this funky monkey.

Want: 40%
Similar to Octolings, I kind of like the thought of Funky being playable as a clone character, but it’s not high on list of things I want to see.

Ow the Edge
Chance: 10%
Once again, it’s last minute clone or bust, and the added hassle of negotiating with a third party for him makes Shadow seem less than likely in my mind.

Want: 0%
My least favorite Sonic character, and that’s saying a lot.

 

[GM_3826]

Isabelle
Chance: 66%
I personally think she's a pretty likely candidate for an echo fighter. Female Robin was scaled up in height in order to match male Robin, so there's no reason they couldn't scale Isabelle down in height in order to match Villager. She's popular, good for marketing, and fairly recent. That said, unlike Sly, I don't think she's a shoe in.

Shadow
Chance: 15%
If we're getting a. more third party characters and b. more echo fighters, then Shadow is an obvious pick. That said, I'm somewhat skeptical that we'll get more than one third party character from the same series... but not so skeptical as to rate Shadow's chances as near 0. I seriously doubt that Sakurai has any conception that no more than one character from a third party series can be added.

Octolings
Chance: 10%
This is just a hunch, but I don't think Octolings are getting in, As an outsider to Splatoon for the most part, I don't find them very interesting. They're edgy Inklings, basically. I feel like there's a lot of potential for echo fighters that are a bit less obscure, a bit more popular, and a lot more interesting to people who are not familiar with the character. So I placed the odds around 1 in 10. I was considering 5% but 1 in 20 feels like pushing it.

Funky Kong
Chance: 10%
See my reasoning for Octoling's chances.

 

[Xigger]

Funky Kong: 25%
Isabelle: 25%
Octolings: 25%;
Shadow: 25%;

Total chances:

All great characters considering they would be easy to include as skins or Echoes.

Funky Kong: Loveable recurring character in DKC, was even featured in Mario Kart. (MK also featured non-Mario character R.O.B. before being in Smash)
Isabelle: The literal new icon of Animal Crossing. Would love alt skins being other AC reps.
Inklings: Inklings are all about being fresh and every costume is an alt skin. I wouldn't see why they wouldn't do it. (Especially not ink colors)
Shadow: Iffy considering he's Third Party, but he did mysteriously vanish from Assist Trophies, and Sega's love for crossover-promotions makes this more likely.

 

[Wyoming]

Kept you waiting, huh?

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Retros, pre-Echoes

Lloyd Irving x260
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x259
Sakura Shinguji x258
Tingle x256
Slippy Toad x244
Kamek x243
Wonder Red x237


Over 200:

Linkle x225
Ryu Hayabusa x225
Neku Sakaruba x224
Scorpion x210
Leon Kennedy x209
Parabo & Satebo x208



199-150

Concept: Monster Hunter character x195
Tetra x189
Ray x188
Labo Guy/Robot x185
Balloon Fighter x182
DeMille x178
Thwomp x177
Papyrus x175
Fawful x174
Django x170
Primarina x165
Katrielle Layton x163
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150

149-100

Fire Emblem Treehouses Protagonist x140
Dragonite x127
Louie x120
Smash Run x120
Barbara x119
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
2B x111
Ayumi Tachibana x107
Susie x104
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x103



99-75

Viewtful Joe x95
Tails x95
Gooey x94
Neptune x93
Concept: Female Announcer x90
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Rowlet x85
Nikki x85
Klonoa x82
Tora & Poppi x82
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Breidablik Item x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Rick/Coo/Kine x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Viridi x62
Yu Narakumi x61
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: All-Star Versus x59
Slime x56
Concept: Style Savvy character x54
Concept: Wars character x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Concept: All-Stages Return (Miiverse exempt) x37

Under 25:

Concept: Hanafuda character x24
Raiden x20
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x20
Ninten x15
Nihilego x15
Master Chief x10
Tapu Koko x10
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x10
Concept: More than five unique newcomers x10
Rhythm Girl x10
Chorus Kids x10
Incineroar x10
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x5
Concept: SR388 stage x5

It looks so naked...snake.

 

[Quetzal77]

Funky
Chance: 40% / Want: abstain
He's got a pretty good chance with the whole echo thing. I think Dixie is more likely and may be the only DK newcomer, though.

Octolings
Chance: 20% / Want: 10%
They may be too late since as far as I understand their importance is very recent, and as DLC they may not be high priority. I'd personally not really want them to be added too much since there's much more exciting echo choices, but they do have cool designs.

Isabelle
Chance: 90% / Want: 60%
She's got much better chances now that echo fighters are a thing. A big name for Nintendo worldwide, from a popular series that likely will soon be on Switch, and already appeared as an AT. She's cute and I'd be glad to see her, though I dont actively want her.

Shadow
Chance: 50% / Want: abstain
It depends if Sakurai was able to make a deal with Sega. It's likely that Sega would agree to making Shadow playable, but I'm not sure if Sakurai will A. Add third party echoes and B. Add third parties from the same series.

Nominations : Neku x 5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Chance: 25%
Given that Shadow's Assist Trophy seems to have been replaced by Knuckles, or at least not shown so far, perhaps they figured Shadow was popular and easy enough to make that they'll save him as a secret Echo Fighter.

Want: 35%
Rather neutral towards Shadow as a fighter, but I think he'd be a nice pick, although I much prefer someone like Tails being the second Sonic character in Smash. Though if I were in charge of making him a playable fighter, I'd have him focus on his Chaos Control attacks he had in Sonic Adventure 2 and Sonic Battle.

Octoling/Agent 8
Chance: 15%
Very rarely do we see a brand new franchise in Smash Bros see more than 1 new character at a time like we had with Fire Emblem back in the day with Marth and Roy. Splatoon is no different, but the Inkling does a fine job of capturing their game as it is. If anything, the Octolings could take that same concept of ink management, but utilising different weapons that set them apart from the Inklings, like say a Heavy Splatling, Charger, Dualies, Curling Bombs, and the Octobrush to set them apart from Inklings if they were a semi-clone.

However, like I said, Inklings are fine enough as Splatoon's sole character for now. The Octolings/Agent 8 are more likely as an Echo Fighter or a semi-clone character saved for yet another DLC expansion. Either way, they'd probably be the next choice for a new Splatoon character.

Want: 70%
Okay, a tad biased since I just started the Octo Expansion last night, and I'm loving it so far. Much more than vanilla Splatoon 2 story mode, so I'm gonna be a bit generous to the Octolings/Agent 8. Definitely would be my second new Splatoon character for Smash Bros Ultimate, but I can live without them if needs be.

Isabelle:
Chance: 65%
Like Shadow, her Assist Trophy is notably missing from the E3 Build, so it's like that she could be added to the game as a new character thanks to her status as a Breakout character and mascot character for Animal Crossing. So it's like that she could be added as a playable, or they'll retain her as an Assist Trophy.

Want: 55%
Relatively neutral, but I think she'd be a good pick for a new Animal Crossing character. Popular, cute and one of the most commonly marketed AC characters, so I think I wouldn't mind it if she were playable.

FUNKY NEW MODE:
Chance: 20%
Funky hasn't really done anything major in his series until the Switch re-release of Tropical Freeze, so I only expect him to be something akin to a DLC character, if he doesn't make the base roster. He's also got competition against four three other big names, the two prominent ones are K. Rool and Dixie, so it doesn't exactly look promising for him.

Want: 60% If only for the Funky memes.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Cloney Echo Day

Well, let's start with the little puppy...what was the deal last time?

Assistant Mayor Bellweather

Chance: 30%
Want: 10%

Definitely been played up a lot recently, and sh'es now the most recognizable face of Animal Crossing. No question she's important.

That said, Animal Crossing still fits oddly into Smash as a fighting game.

I could see her remaining as an assist or even becoming a new Villager alt, but AC doesn't really need a new playable representative. After all, half of the villager moveset is original anyway.

Wow, this one's changing...

Chance: 60%
Want: 15%

Isabelle is, for all intents and purposes, the new face of Animal Crossing. It'd be no question as to whether AC is important enough to Nintendo to deserve a second rep (then again, fighting-game characteristics from The Sims: Furry Edition are quite lacking). To consider her a full character is a stretch, despite the wholly imaginative movesets various people have extracted from their nether regions. Point it: AC and its characters will be tough to put into a fighting game.

Now if we go on to talk about clones/echoes (it seems everyone has a different definition of where the line is, and everyone's getting really particular about this), she's definitely got a chance. It'd be a total non-issue to make her a second villager and leave it at that. She's got the popularity and visibility to back all of that up.

But do I want her? Eh. I really wouldn't have a dog in that race (pun intended). Minus a bit since a cloney type is looking likely and I couldn't really care less.

---

Totally Radical Kong (or Paramilitary Kong from DK64)

Chance: 1%
Want: 10%

I'm not seeing it for this guy.

There are two obvious frontrunners for the "Next DK Rep" slot, one who's been in a few games recently and may have even been considered before, and the other who is probably the most requested first-party character worldwide. I'm really not seeing anyone come in above the two of them.

Funky also has all of the makings of a last-minute clone, so if anything, I feel like he'll be a not-DK, which is also likely to annoy people.

Honestly, the only DK game I've played is DK64, so I'm partial to the paramilitary design, but I know that won't happen (Sidenote: WTF did they do to Tiny's design?). But it would be fun to see him show up as an assist or something.

He might require a few changes as well...

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Again, doesn't look like he could be anything but a second DK - and if the internet gets its way, we'd be getting two DK newcomers before him. Do we really need a third, especially if that third is a clone? And especially if the two DK characters that get added have cloney elements themselves? We have enough characters who are only around for the memes. Pass.

---

For the other two, I want to reiterate something from a previous day...

Ok, this echo thing is getting annoying - first we hate clones, but then Sakurai tells us they were end-of-production desserts to make us not feel like they took dev time. Now he gives them a new name, reveals one at E3, and suddenly everyone wanted to take their favorite character to Hot Topic for an edgelord makeover to make them an echo since it's the 'next big thing.'

I don't think that 'echoes' in this game are anything more than the Lucy/Pittoo style clones from 4 or the set of clones we had in Melee, just with a different name so we don't hate them at first glance (marketing - it works!). As such, they'll be another character taking a roster slot and will need to be played to unlock stuff. This is different from alternate costumes like Olimar/Alph (or Ike/Ike, or Riddles/Meta-Riddles) where the characters are so similar that they're interchangeable. Plus, we only got Daisy, who is quite popular in her own right - will popularity play a role in selection of echoes?

A lot of people are also suddenly latching onto missing assist trophies. Despite them saying we'll get 50+ and we've only seen about 30 so far, we're jumping to the conclusion that every one we've not seen yet not has incredible odds of being playable. I wouldn't be so quick to say their chances have changed just because they may not be finished yet. Also, Isaac says hello.

Also, are we 100% sure that all of each character's recolors are there? Kinda like how we've been promised a Meta-Ridley alt but Ridley had 8 normal recolors and that's it in the demo? I feel like this is also jumping to conclusions.

Not Kids nor Squids

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Another example of 'as soon as echoes were announced, people want edgy echoes of literally every character.' We don't even have the game, so we don't have a feel for the Inkling moveset. Why do we want them doubled up on the roster? Yes, the inklings were popular, but so was animal crossing - by that logic Nook'd have joined with villager back in Sm4sh.

We don't need to bloat the roster with unnecessary echlones. Pass.

The Edgehog

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

I don't need this 13-year-old hellion's dream OC in Smash. I'd prefer Tails get in as Sonic's echo since Tails debuted as Sonic's player 2 in Sonic 2, and I pretty well used him exclusively. Maybe even declone him a bit by giving him a hover like Peach by spinning the tails after the spring jump.

But Canon Coldsteel the Hedgeheg? pssh...nothin personnel...kid...

Nom: Tails x5

 

[Nebelung]

Funky Kong!
Chances: 10%

I wouldn't be too surprised if he was, but I genuinely think he is lower on the likely list of echoes than other characters. It just doesn't seem to fit with how I feel the echo characters will happen, and I see Dixie being a more likely echo, and I feel they won't add two DK echoes.

Want: 10%
He's a fun dude! I'm not a big fan of Donkey Kong (haven't gotten around to it), but I like the guy!


Isabelle!
Chances: 50%
I reeeeeally think we will get another Animal Crossing rep this time. I really think it will happen. Whether she's a semi-clone or echo I dunno, but I feel she will be on the roster.

Want: 45%
I think she's cute and a good rep for Animal Crossing!


Octolings!
Chance: 35%
Hmm... I feel they might be more likely as dlc. But I could still maybe see them being echoes in base game. Great advertisement for Splatoon 2, too, and with how well they've been received, a good addition.

Want: 45%
They're cute and fun and can add some stuff the Inklings don't have!


Shadow!
Chance: 50%
... Okay, a bit more of a crazy percentage here, at least from my perspective. But I honestly have been eyeballing Shadow a lot after his assist not appearing, and how easy a Sonic echo with him would be. I think the third party thing is only holding him back, but with how popular Sonic is I feel he has a good chance.

Want: 70%
... I have a bit of a fondness for Shadow, so I would like him in a lot!


Noms: Yu Narukami x5

 

[Wyoming]

Isabelle:

Chance: 30% (down from approx. 60% previous)
The pros for her remain: popular and heavily marketed.

However, when Sakurai mentioned that BOTW Zelda isn't much a fighter and thus went with a older design is a pretty bad thing for Isabelle, who is practically known for her non-violent tendencies and kind-hearted nature. Sakurai seems to put a lot of stock into a character's personality when putting them in the game more than I thought. True, he changed his stance on Villager, but that's a soulless beacon for a player. Isabelle has her own character that hates fighting.

Her assist missing is interesting though. I can see why Dark Samus, Shadow, Ashley, and Skull Kid are missing due to their gimmick requiring some technical touching up. A character that throws apples to heal doesn't seem to have the complexity of those if you ask me. Could be wrong obviously...

Want: 50%
Unchanged. Indifferent but she's fitting to be considered an All-Star.

Funky Kong:

Chance: 35%
Does he have the build to be a DK echo? Yes.
Is he popular? Seems to be the case in Japan.

A very feasible kind of left field choice by Sakurai if you ask me. While I would think it is odd he got picked over Dixie, even as an echo, it's certainly possible.

Want: 25%
I like Funky, but getting him before K. Rool and Dixie would be hard to swallow.

Octolings:

Chance: 50%

They make a lot of sense. Splatoon's huge, and they are echo material to the tee.

Want: 10%
Never played Splatoon, and a clone of an interesting mechanic like Inkling already would be a shame.

Shadow:

Chance: 15%
Well...he is popular. He had his peak popularity some time ago, but no doubt people still want the fella.
He has the build and backstory to work as a Sonic echo...

His AT missing might be due to how complex it is as a function for a demo build. but I do admit Knuckles being added makes it ambigious that he'll be back alongside the echidna, replaced, or promoted.

Want: 0%
Aaaah, no. I dislike him. Not a big of Sonic's cast to start with, but he's one of the worst culprits from the recurring ones.

Nomations: Ninten x3, Ken (Street Fighter) x2

 

[SEGAGameBoy]

I feel like Shadow has more of a chance than any of the others. Mainly because Sakurai replaced his Assist Trophy with Knuckles and now people are going apes*** over that and thinking Shadow might be either an Echo Character or a whole new character. And I'm one of those people.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I’m rating these under the premise of them being Echoes.

Isabelle: abstain from rating, too many variables to take into account. She’s hella popular, but she doesn’t really seem like a plausible Echo.

Want: as an Echo 0%, as a unique fighter 100%
An echo would be a disservice.

Shadow: 50%
He seems like one of the likelier echoes, and while he doesn’t have unique abilities it depends on the the game (as in, sometimes he’s a Sonic clone)

Want: 80%
If he were first party it’d be higher, he’s pretty iconic and I like him.

Octolings: 60%
They’re massively popular, but their more prevalent appearances we’re in Splatoon 2 and particularly Octo Expansion (aka the way too late zone). There’d also be issues with ink color and I’m not sure if Sakurai would make an Echo out of a new moveset. Maybe an alt skin?

Want: 90%
Sure, I love Splatoon.

Funk
Chance: 10%
He’s beyond the way too late zone, isn’t even genuinely popular, and would have to compete with two of the most demanded characters.

Want: 0%
Maybe if people shut the **** up with the memes and proved somebody actually, non-ironically likes Funky, then sure. As it stands I’m skeptical. (I like Funky as a character, but memes make me not want to associate with him).

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[Wyoming]

I feel like Shadow has more of a chance than any of the others. Mainly because Sakurai replaced his Assist Trophy with Knuckles and now people are going apes*** over that and thinking Shadow might be either an Echo Character or a whole new character. And I'm one of those people.

Was he replaced though? They don't do the same thing at all.

The missing assist trophies from the demo build all seem to be the ones that are more complex functionally and technically to me.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Funky Kong

Chance: 75%
Obviously, not that Echoes are confirmed, his chances are way up. However, I always thought his chances were relatively on par with the others because of New Funky Mode.

Want: 100%
I made the support thread and I gave him like 90% of his noms the first time around, so obviously I'm pretty invested.

Shadow the Hedgehog

Chance: 90%
Echoes are a thing now, and Shadow is extremely highly requested. Normally that wouldn't even be a 50 for me, but his Assist Trophy was absent from the reveal and the E3 build. While that might be because the game isn't finished yet, we can see a lot of other old ATs that are virtually unchanged from Smash 4, so either he's not an AT anymore or he's going to be much different.

Want: 50%
Really I just want him as an Echo so he doesn't steal a better character (Dr. Eggman)'s spot. If only we could do the same with Tails...

Isabelle

Chance: 50%
She's popular and the AT is missing. It could go either way.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played New Leaf yet. It came out when I had no money and it's been on my backlog ever since.

Octolings

Chance: 35%
On one hand, their expansion just came out and people are really hyped. On the other hand, there's only ever been one clone of a newcomer (excluding Luigi because it was the first game).

Want: 80%
Hell yeah. I've been demanding Octolings for months and I'd love for them to be in Smash.

Bandana Dee prediction: 25%

Elma prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Didn't get a reply, so I'm assuming saying that my want ratings have stayed the same is good enough, and TCT~Phantom will find them.

 

[Camc10]

Was he replaced though? They don't do the same thing at all.

The missing assist trophies from the demo build all seem to be the ones that are more complex functionally and technically to me.

Let's remember. All Shadow was in Brawl/4 was a Assist Trophy version of Timer that didn't backfire on you. and the timer was in the demo iirc.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Funky Kong
Chance: 15% - I can see him joining the battle if, and only if, he is an Echo Fighter. He is popular enough to be part of the roster in Mario Kart, but that was years ago. New Funky Mode may be part of the package as a true last-minute addition.
Want: 20% - I like Funky, but I don't want him more than Dixie or K. Rool; if he got in before either of them I wouldn't be very happy.

Isabelle
Chance: 10% - Again, I see her possible as a Villager Echo Fighter, but I think Sakurai already has her role where it belongs. She exists to support in her own series; and that's how she's been represented in Smash.
Want: 0% - Why would I want to beat this little pupper up? She's too cute.

Octoling
Chance: 95% - The fact that Splatoon is as popular as it is means it could easily get two newcomers in one game; and considering they share exactly the same attributes in their home series, they'd make literally the perfect Echo Fighter.
Want: 100% - I actually really like the Octolings; I'd be happy to have them join the battle.

Shadow
Chance: 5% - I could see him being added solely as an Echo Fighter, but I don't think Sakurai wants any more than one character per third party franchise; beyond that he really deserves a more unique moveset and I think Sakurai believes so as well. The reason that Knuckles got the assist role means nothing; we have more than one assist trophy per company, why not more than one per franchise?
Want: 0% - Hell no. I don't even like Sonic that much; unless it's Tails keep the Sonic to a minimum.

Nominations:
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5

 

[Honest Slug]

Isabelle:

Chance: 70%
She's more iconic than the Villager at this point. Animal Crossing is also pretty huge so in that sense it could use another rep.

Want: 50%
I have no emotional attachment to Animal Crossing, but it'd be cool for the fans.

Funky Kong:

Chance: 3%
The Funky mode is way too late and before that nobody really cared for him. He also has fierce competition with the much more likely K Rool and Dixie.

Want: 1%
The memes would be funny, that's the only reason why it's not a flat zero. He doesn't interest me.

Octoling:

Chance: 30%
Splatoon is really big so they might go the extra mile more than most new franchises. With that said the Octolings took until the Octo Expansion to gain any importance which is really late seeing as we barely have much Splatoon 2 representation to begin with.

Want: 90%
I'm a big Splatoon fan so I'd love to have more representation, and I really like the Agent 8 design in particular. Probably my personal top choice for an echo.

Shadow

Chance: 25%
Negotiating with a third party seems to be a bit more work than the quick and easy mentality that seems to go into echoes even if negotiations wouldn't be difficult. With that said Shadow is a fan favorite and if any 3rd party deserves a 2nd character it's the Sonic series.

Want: 5%
Higher than Funky Kong since I know he has fans, but I've always disliked him.

 

[Deleted member]

Isabelle
Chance: 25%
Want: 5%

I'm still not okat with this idea.

Shadow
Chance: 45%
Want: 60%

The fact we got a Knuckles AT but haven't seen Shadow is very suspicious.

Octolings
Chance: 25%
Want: 20%

Meh.

Funky Kong
Chance: 45%
Want: 65%

Would be a waste of an Echo if he doesn't get his surfboard.


Noms:
Female announcer x5