Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Byleth sounds more like Chrom 2.0 than anything, not bringing much new to the table as he appears to be a swordsman.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I guess for each character, I'll give two chance ratings - one assuming that the five are all we're getting, and one assuming that we may get others later.

Hg(l)

Chance (this is it): 0%
Chance: (more DLC): 5%
Want: 5%

If Rex was too new to make it onto the DLC roster, how are we even going to consider a puddle of mercury who was revealed all of a month ago?

On the whole though, this is starting to feel like Mimikyu 2.0. Yes, it's the first we're seeing of Gen 8 (or is it still technically gen 7?), but those games are still a ways off, and Meltan/Melmetal aren't coming to anything playable for another week. And besides, it was Meltan who was pushed a lot, Melmetal kinda just showed up.

Now with Cena in the game, Pokémon is starting to get heavy. Still, I like the mons and the only Steel type we have is one who nobody knows is a steel type anyway. Still, there are a few other characters I'd rather have first, and I want to get to know this guy before we take him on.

Thought of the day: what would Melmetal look like with a metal box?

Prediction for Edelgard: 30.0%
Nom: DLC Costumes x5 (or if that's on the schedule, More DLC x5)

 

[Ze Diglett]

Smooth Regirock:

Chance: 1%
And that's being generous, if you ask me. I'm doubtful of any Pokemon for DLC since A.) we already have ****ing ten of them, and B.) the timing doesn't really support a DLC mon - we already got one from Gen 7 in the base roster, and the timing barely supported that, much less a Gen 8 mon. If we weren't even sure if Gen 7 was getting a character until Verg spoke up on the issue (and even then, the Grinch Leak gave us collective pause near the end), why are we entertaining the idea of a character from a generation that hasn't even been formally revealed yet? On top of that, Melmetal in particular doesn't really have anything that makes him stand out among the crowd other than being the Pokemon to tease Gen 8, which has only historically worked for Lucario, who has a whole movie to his name and lasting popularity to this day. Even if Gen 8 somehow does nab a DLC spot, there's likely to be several other Pokemon from that generation that would be seen as more appealing (if nothing else, the starters almost definitely would just for, well, being starters). I'll be really surprised if we see Mr. "Imma Sick **** I Like a Quick ****" over here show up in Smash not as a Pokeball summon, as part of the Fighter Pass or otherwise.

Want: 0%
I don't like his design, I don't like flavor-of-the-month picks, and although I love Pokemon with all my heart, 10 characters was pushing the limits already. Enough is enough.

Edgelord Prediction: 25%
People are gonna inflate her chances massively because "m-muh Nintendo" and "muh promotion" and "muh Fire Emblem", even though her game's probably way past the cutoff date for DLC consideration and she isn't even the main character of her game.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Edelgard isn’t a swordfighter.

According to the Fire Emblem Wikipedia: She is an Aristocrat, a new class that wields axes, swords, and magic in battle.

Knowing Smash Bros, they will give her a sword as her primary weapon, along with an axe and magic in her specials. They did the same with Robin (a mage)

 

[GoodGrief741]

According to the Fire Emblem Wikipedia: She is an Aristocrat, a new class that wields axes, swords, and magic in battle.

Knowing Smash Bros, they will give her a sword as her primary weapon, along with an axe and magic in her specials. They did the same with Robin (a mage)

Considering most of what we’ve seen of her is with an axe, it’s probably going to be her main weapon, and thus the one she’ll be represented in Smash with.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Considering most of what we’ve seen of her is with an axe, it’s probably going to be her main weapon, and thus the one she’ll be represented in Smash with.

Well, if they do decide to bring her in, we'll have to wait and see

 

[aarchak]

Melmetal

Chance: 0%
This thing is so new that I doubt they'll even give it a spirit. It ain't happening unless we get a wave 2 AND a wave 3, then it may have a chance.
Want: 0%
No thanks, we already got Incineroar and I think that's enough. Plus, I'm not really interested in Melmetal in and of itself.

Nominations
None today, I'm going to wait and see.

 

[Koopaul]

The first post needs a serious update. I have no idea what to expect for noms and who is being rated in the future.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

The first post needs a serious update. I have no idea what to expect for noms and who is being rated in the future.

TCT~Phantom said he will be updating the schedule tonight.

 

[Troykv]

Meltan/Melmetal

Chance: 15%

This Pokémon is in a very awkward position for DLC, a bit like Rex's case with Base Roster; but at least DLC is a bit more flexible with release dates.

In the other hand being a promotional Pokémon that is becoming very well known with the common public is always an advantage.

Want: 50%

Pokémon always give us nice choies; I don't have a particular attachment to the Mercury-like being; but he would be cool.

_____

Predictions:

Edelgard: 32.5% (I'm expecting either her, Byleth or Bandana Dee as the First-Party with the highest Chance Score).

Nominations:

I would like to see the nominations lists before doing something with this.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Melmetal: 0% chance, 10% want.
I love pokemon quite a lot (if you couldn't tell) but the last thing we need is a pokemon that very few people actually like, despite being pushed so hard. The only reason he could've gotten in is if it were a Greninja/Incineroar situation, added based on concept art... but he's not. He's too new for that. If we get a pokemon rep for the fighter pass, it will not be Melmetal. That said... A heavyweight with a liquid metal body sounds pretty cool from a moveset standpoint. I don't particularly love his design as a pokemon, but his moveset would definitely be really cool in Smash.

Edelgard prediction: 50%, 10% want.

Nominating "Fighter pass will be entirely 1st party" x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Banjo-Kazooie Honeycomb Bot:

Chance: 1% - Mythical Pokemon never seem to be chosen for Smash, and with The Pokemon Company not allowing the Pokemon characters to have their shiny palette as an alt. (well, except for Incineroar for some reason) because of something along the lines of "they would feel too common, and not special," I feel like they may not allow Mythical 'mons as playable either. Of course, Incineroar's shiny alt. may be proof that TPC is starting to be more lenient regarding all that, but currently it only shows a lenience for shiny 'mons.

Want: 100% - Well, if you read what I called it, you know exactly why I'd like it I also like its design in general, and its pre-evolution Meltan has a cute/cool design as well. Tbh I don't care either way, but it would be cool in my opinion.

 

[warpenguin55]

Melmetal

Chance: 5%
I can't see this one happening. If a mythical was to get in, it would probably be Zeraora

Want: 30%
I feel like Melmetal would work better as a pokeball tbh

 

[Kotor]

We got a better clip of Roy speaking English with no background noise.

That means "Marth and Roy speaking English" is confirmed!

TCT~Phantom We got a confirmed concept!

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Banjo-Kazooie Honeycomb Bot:

Chance: 1% - Mythical Pokemon never seem to be chosen for Smash, and with The Pokemon Company not allowing the Pokemon characters to have their shiny palette as an alt. (well, except for Incineroar for some reason) because of something along the lines of "they would feel too common, and not special," I feel like they may not allow Mythical 'mons as playable either. Of course, Incineroar's shiny alt. may be proof that TPC is starting to be more lenient regarding all that, but currently it only shows a lenience for shiny 'mons.

Want: 100% - Well, if you read what I called it, you know exactly why I'd like it I also like its design in general, and its pre-evolution Meltan has a cute/cool design as well. Tbh I don't care either way, but it would be cool in my opinion.

Greninja also has his shiny alt colors. (I think Pikachu also has his but idk. I don't play him much)

 

[TheCJBrine]

Greninja also has his shiny alt colors. (I think Pikachu also has his but idk. I don't play him much)

I thought so too at one time but then someone pointed out that his scarf-tongue was actually different, but I guess it's close enough ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

idk about Pikachu, he might but I don't remember. I guess that Red hat at least makes him close to that color, though.

 

[Artix]

Melmetal

Chance: 5%
Not sure if this Pokemon is technically Gen 7 or Gen 8. In any case, I can see this happening, since DLC is all about promoting games and stuff, but with the Pokemon Company the way they were, I'm not even sure if this guy can make it in.

Want: 50%
I'm indifferent towards Melmetal. While I want him in the game since I kinda like his design, but he's better off as one of the Pokemon summoned in the Pokeball, to be honest.

Edelgard Prediction: 40.54%

I guess I'll have to wait until the list of noms is revealed, so no nominations for now.

 

[Nemuresu]

"Not a Gen-8 Pokémon"
Chance: 20%-Nintendo's in charge of the DLC, that helps, but I frankly don't consider it a big priority. I feel like they'd go with another starter or mythical for Smash.
Want: 0%-I so do not care about Let's Go. Not to mention, I think it's too bulky and slow to work in a game like Smash, and for something like that, I already have Bowser, Ganondorf and Ridley.

Edelgard prediction: 30%-It's quite exaggerated, yes, but many thought Rex and Pyra were locks and we all know how that ended.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Melmetal
Chance: 20%
When it comes to promotional Pokemon, there's only a few choices available right now thanks to Inciniroar fulfilling the Sun and Moon advertisement, and that is Eevee due to Let's Go(which is unlikely as Eevee is currently a Pokeball Pokemon), Meowth and Team Rocket(similar situation with Meowth being a Pokeball Pokemon) and Melmetal and it's younger form Meltan.

Could definitely see coming if we're getting a Pokemon as advertisement, but we've been burnt in the past with this with Zoroark, a little with Munchlax, Marril, etc. Most likely Pokemon in my eyes right now.

Want: 30%
I'll be honest, I hated every common single Sun and Moon Smash speculation option, with Mimikyu and Incineroar being the least awful in my eyes and even then Incineroar's inclusion was the least exciting for me including the echoes. I fell out of love with Pokemon somewhere around X/Y(didn't care for Greninja either) but I'm going to give Let's Go a...err...go, and Meltan has at least got me mildly interested.

Would much still prefer a Pokemon that's proven it's got the ability to be more than flavour of the month such as the previously stated Meowth and Eevee or even Hoenn's success stories in Blaziken and Gardevoir.

Edlegard prediction: 46%

 

[FancySmash]

Meltan hits the Gym

Chance: 50%
If the current DLC plan is true, than I'm completely expecting DQ Character, Steve, Katalina, New Pokemon, and New FE character as DLC, the most disappointing lineup I can think of. So with the previous three already leaked, New Pokemon has 2 slots left to contend for, and I'm almost sure it'll take one of them.

Want: 0%
It's a shame too, because in my opinion, Pokemon and Fire Emblem do not need anymore newcomers. Pokemon sits at 10 and FE sits at 9. So what's the plan? To represent every type in Pokemon in the roster somehow? Where do we draw the line? Pokemon has no echoes (even with Pichu), and with 70 characters currently (Piranha Plant included), that's about 14% of the roster. Mario has less than that, not counting Wario and Yoshi that is...

I like Pokemon, but it has enough content already to please Pokemon fans IMO. Zelda and Kirby have been getting nothing new since Brawl, and even then, Brawl only gave Zelda a Toon Link replacement.

Edelgarde: Hmm, haven't done these in a while... I'm going with 32%.

 

[BlueMagician]

Melted golem thing

Chance 0%
After blind-betting on Incineroar, I don't think even Masuda/TPC would have the gumption to gamble on an unproven Pokemon twice in the same game. Plus, there's already three returning Pokemon this time, so they might not want to put in another Pokemon. The fact that there was some time to finalize the DLC roster at some point probably steered the Smash team away from another tricky Incineroar situation. Making things trickier, it might be too new to have even been considered.

Want: 0%
I don't have a problem with having another Pokemon newcomer, but it does go back to depending on if the Pokemon in question is one I'd be interested in. And even though I'm a Pokemon fan that likes quite a lot of Pokemon, Melmetal doesn't really interest me. Also, a slow, bulky punch-machine isn't the worst thing, but I think we have that covered.

Edel prediction: 20% or so

 

[Sid-cada]

Might as well come back...

Melmetal

Chance - 2.5% - Mythical Pokemon, due to their acquisition methods, are rarely chosen as fighters. In addition, these so called preview pokemon are rarely given much afterwords. Combine with them already headging on Incineroar, and plans of characters being done well in advance and we have a ppor choce.

Want - 35% - A mostly generic gollem-thing? I don't find that to be a good figher.

Predictions

Edlegard - 36.34% - Oh boy, another fire emblem character.,..

 

[ProfPeanut]

If you're going to start all this again before we even have our hands in the game, at least take more responsibility and tally the votes this time.

Melmetal

Chance: 30%
It could happen. The Pokemon Company advertising incoming generations is absolutely nothing new - Togepi, Blaziken, Lucario, Zoroark - but that assumes that Melmetal and Melton are from Gen 8 in the first place. Maybe they're doing something new in that they're putting Pokemon without tying them to generation installments?

Still, the cat's out of the bag already with the Meltan line, so any Smash DLC will be a year late by the time it comes out. Regardless, Melmetal has an interesting body type to work with, so it's easy to imagine Sakurai going for this one if it's on Nintendo's list.

Want: 50%
Wouldn't mind it myself, even though I'm not so big on Pokemon as I used to be. People don't realize that Pokemon saturation happens because Pokemon is the one franchise that keeps on providing interesting moveset ideas, and not just because TPC wants for a newcomer every installation. Even if the representation is skewed, it simply doesn't matter as long as the moveset's good and the game benefits from it (See: Piranha Plant).


Prediction:
Edelgard: 70%

 

[DaUsername]

No new thread? Alright, whatever.
Memetal
Chance: 25%
It's a Cool New Pokémon that Nintendo might want to shill, but they could also choose a newer and cooler one that we haven't even seen yet.
It's also not a starter, so that hurts its chances a bit.
Want: 0%
Pokémon already has ten (10) characters. It doesn't need any more.

Unnecessary character prediction: 50%
Noms: DLC stages outside of Fighter Pass x5

 

[Sari]

TCT~Phantom When can we expect the full fixed schedule?

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Melmetal want: 5% (15-10*)

Cool, liquid metal terminator. What's not to like? I'll tell you what: that stupid tail.

Nominations:

Skull Kid x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Melmetal want: 5% (15-10*)

Cool, liquid metal terminator. What's not to like? I'll tell you what: that stupid tail.

Nominations:

Skull Kid x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

Umm Skull Kid is disconfirmed as an assist trophy.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Umm Skull Kid is disconfirmed as an assist trophy.

Is that in the rules somewhere?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Assists trophies clearly were seen by most people in the thread as deconfirmed on the days of discussion for what amounted for deconfirmed. For anyone who missed that double day, spirits were seen as more fair game, background appearances are ok, but assist trophies and poke balls are not on the docket. Mii costumers also were seen as a bad sign but nowhere mere the level of assist trophies or poke balls. So long as we only have one wave of dlc, no one views any assist trophy promotion as likely. No assist will be on the fixed schedule. Noms for any current assist trophy are to be ignored.

Speaking of the fixed schedule, it will be out tonight at 8 pm est. Sari . The only holdup was I was making sure I did not miss anything. I missed Elma and Granblue on my first run through the schedule, I did not want to miss anyone else who could be a heavy hitter.

If there is anyone who potentially should be on the fixed schedule, please speak before 8 pm est or hold your peace.

Now for Melmetal

10% Chance

To be honest, if I did this before Sakurais tweet it would be lower. But melmetal would be the big gen 8 rep as of now. We could look at others when the game is closer, but I feel that there is a reason Melton and Melmetal were in Let’s Go.

0% want

Many pokemon I would rather want. I would much rather have pokemon that would be more interesting. I would give it points for a steel typing but to be honest, I do not see it as that interesting move set wise.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

There's nothing stopping Nintendo from promoting assist trophies in DLC.

 

[AirMac1]

Abstraining today since I never heard of Melmetal.

Noms:9-volt x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstraining today since I never heard of Melmetal.

Noms:9-volt x5

Melmetal is a new promotional Pokémon introduced in Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee. It's a Steel type mythical Pokémon, and it's the first mythical to ever evolve.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

188: Melmetal
189: Edelgard
190: Dixie
191: Bandana Dee
192: Rex
193: Geno
194: Rayman
195: Banjo
196: Steve
197: Erdrick and Slime
198: Sora
199: Sans
200: Surprise
201: Shantae
202: Crash Bandicoot
203: Doomguy
204: Travis Touchdown
205: Dovakhin
206: Celica
207: Lycanroc
208: Chibi Robo
209: Lip
210: Ray MK III
211: Saki
212: Paper Mario
213: Captain Toad and Toad
214: Professor Layton
215: Phoenix Wright
216: Jibanyan
218: Lloyd Irving
219: Heihatchi
220: Leon Scott Kennedy
221: Character Alternate Costume as DLC
222: Barbara the Bat
223: Prince (Katamari)
224: Chorus Kids and Karate Joe
225: Xurkitree
226: Joker (Persona 5)
227:Master Chief
228: 2B
229: Merric
230: Quote
231: Katalina
232: Tails
233: Elma
234: Concept: Echo Fighter DLC (Not one of five in fighter pass)
235: Demille
236: Michaiah


This is what I got for a schedule, looking at high noms on the noms list and likely characters. Some bones have been thrown to different people as well. If your character is not on here, either they are an assist trophy or you were not vocal enough about them. Feel free to nominate them though! So long as they are not an assist trophy that is.

I will make some edits to the front page this week. As for schedule, unless I outright post for a double day, we are going to be moving a bit faster. Expect days to end around 9:30 PM EST from now on.

Today we have Edelgard, one of our main lords for Fire Emblem Three Houses. She clearly has become the one talked about the most for Smash, but could one of her competitors oust her? Or will there be no FE DLC at all? Will her uses of Axes make her seem the ideal pick?

Predict the scores for Dixie Tomorrow. I would go on about who Dixie is, but we all know who she is. Will she complete DKs lineup? Or will the girl with the whirl have a bad hair day?

 

[Sari]

Edelgard

Chance: 30%
Has a somewhat decent chance of being playable since she’d help promote Three Houses just like Roy and Corrin did for their respective games. She also seems to be the most popular of the Three House protagonists so she has that going for her. Sakurai has stated that we already have a lot of FE characters so that may be a problem for her however. On top of this she also has to compete with the other Three Houses protagonists, specifically Byleth who is supposedly the true main protagonist of the game. In the end while Edelgard is popular, there is a big chance she might viewed as the Azura or Ryoma of the game and be put on the side for Byleth.

Want: 80%
Edelgard is easily my favorite of the Three Houses protagonists design-wise. The fact that she uses axes and spells would also help differentiate her from most of the current FE reps and I think they can make a really interesting moveset for her. Want rating would be slightly higher though there are still a few other FE characters I'd prefer to see instead.

Dixie chance predictions: 33.71%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Troykv]

235: Demille
236: Michaiah

Michaiah? I want to make sure this name is written correctly.

 

[Ridrool64]

I hate the crests girl

35% Chance. She'll probably put Byleth into a Chrom 2 situation where she's more interesting than him for the purposes of a moveset, but Three Houses has released nowhere yet. This sounds like a very bad idea, considering the reception that Corrin got in Smash 4.

Want: 50%. I really want to see what her character is like before I give a fair judgement, but axe users are always cool. (Sword!Edelgard would have 0% want).

Dixie Prediction: 40%.

Noms: Arle Nadja x 5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

FIRE EMBLEM WAIFU LORD
Chance: 55%
Want: 45%
Hooo boy, let the screaming children begin... Yes, I know. Another Fire Emblem character, that is capable of wielding a sword, but thankfully chooses an axe as her main weapon! She is an aristocrat that can use swords axes and MAGIC in her moveset. Edelgard could function like Robin who is a mage that carries a sword for melee attacks, but she would use her axe for that instead while having her magic and sword abilities for her specials. Sadly though, outside of her being kinda hot, I'm not as interested in having her join over Melmetal, the other possible promotional character Nintendo could've chosen for DLC. I could easily see people flipping out over another Fire Emblem character joining, especially a promotional one like what happened with Corrin. Her chances seem slightly higher than Melmetal's, but would cause more outrage from fans. It's one of the other at this point.

Predictions: Dixie Kong: 25%

Nominations: Reaper x5

 

[Idon]

C:30%
She'd be extremely recent and built off purely conceptual info. I find it unlikely as Sakurai expressed doubts with Corrin and even he at least released in Japan.
W:0%
How about a ****ing character we actually know and like first? Enough of these damn advertisement characters.
IF YOU WANT AN AXE CHARACTER, HECTOR EXISTS.
And give me Lyn dammit.
Nom: SMT Rep x5.

 

[Kotor]

Edelgard

Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

Thoughts on her still haven't change. Info about Three Houses is still scarce. All she has is an assumption/fear Nintendo would pick her to advertise Three Houses. Considering how long this DLC will last, I doubt Edelgard would be revealed & released before Three Houses's release.

I'm not exactly the biggest fan of rating characters whose game hasn't been released yet. Edelgard right now just reeks of "quota fighter," something I also don't like. From what little we saw, axes seems to be her specialty, but she also uses a sword (there's a whip sword in the trailer that looks important enough), and magic. If she just uses an axe, what's so special about that? Because it doesn't look like a sword? If she uses magic to fuse it into her weapon, that already sounds way more interesting than just an axe user.

It's like that FE Spear User day we had. Between Azura and Ephraim, Azura offers way more to the table than Ephraim would.

Kracko as a boss x5

 

[aarchak]

Edelgard

Chance: 30%
I won't lie, they may actually put her in for promotional purposes. FE: Three Houses is scheduled to release in Spring 2019, so a promotion seems likely, not just possible. I don't know whether they'd actually put Edelgard in or not, especially after Corrin's mixed reception.
Want: 0%
Considering we know almost nothing about her, I don't know how I'd feel about her until I learn some more. Until then, I don't want her in.

Nominations
Lora (Xenoblade 2) x5